The Book Has Landed

by Geoff Young on Feb 25, 2008 (16) Comments

Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual

I am pleased to announce that the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual is now available as a hard copy or a PDF download. Not ready to commit? Try some linky goodness:

As a reminder, $1 from each book sold during calendar year 2008 will go to the San Diego Red Cross, so not only are you getting something to read, you’re also doing something good for folks.

Enjoy, and spread the word!

Friday Links (22 Feb 08)

by Geoff Young on Feb 22, 2008 (61) Comments

Weather permitting, we’ve got a meetup tonight at Tony Gwynn Stadium. As of this writing, the rain is coming down pretty good in my neck of the woods, so stay tuned. I’ll keep everyone updated in the comments.

Also, my proof copy of the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual arrived in the mail yesterday afternoon. Mrs. Ducksnorts and I are going to read through it over the weekend, and assuming everything checks out, this thing should be ready for public consumption on Monday.

Finally, if I sent you an invite to the Ducksnorts Fantasy Baseball League, please respond by 11:59 p.m. PT on Friday. If I haven’t heard from you by then, I’ll open up the remaining spots to others who have expressed an interest. Once the first league has been filled, I’ll open up the second one.

If you haven’t heard from me yet, you will be receiving an invite over the weekend. If the weekend passes and you still haven’t heard from me, then something went wrong and you’ll need to get in touch with me.

Enough of that. We’ve got linkage, and lots of it:

Man, that was too many links. Still, if you’re a real glutton, we’ve got more linky goodness over at del.icio.us. Rock on…

Prospects, Meetups, and Fantasy League

by Geoff Young on Feb 21, 2008 (49) Comments

Uh-oh, another post full of bullet points. I am so jonesing for actual games…

  • I’m seriously stuck in the past. The latest installment in my re-examination of the top prospects of ’98 is up at Knuckle Curve. Padres relevance? Rafael Medina checks in at #72, Ramon Hernandez at #74.
  • Turning the clock back another decade, I’ve written a brief retrospective of the 1988 Pacific Coast League over at Hardball Times. Padres everywhere in this one: Sandy Alomar Jr., Greg Harris, Jerald Clark, Ken Caminiti, Shane Mack, Gary Lucas, Bruce Bochy, Darrel Akerfelds, Kevin Towers. Fun stuff.
  • Ben B. points us to a chat with Heath Bell at North County Times. So, Heath, tell the folks what you think about the idea of Barry Bonds playing for the Padres:

    It would be a bad move on the Padres’ part because we’d have a slow left fielder who’s not a team player. It’d bring too much controversy to the clubhouse. But at least I wouldn’t throw strikes to him and have the umpire call it a ball.

    Thanks, man. Simple is beautiful.

Meetups and Fantasy League

  • Assuming the weather holds, we’re meeting at Tony Gwynn Stadium on Friday evening for the USD/SDSU game. Be at the ticket office at 5:40 p.m.
  • The limo thing fell through (we’ll try again next year), but reader Lance and I are headed to Peoria March 6 – 9. If you’ll be there at that time, let me know in the comments or drop me a line and we’ll come up with a plan.
  • Thinking a little further ahead, I’ve been in contact with the Padres about another group night. We did one of these last year, and it was a blast. This time we’re talking about maybe Saturday, July 12. It’s a night game against the Braves, and the Padres will be celebrating the 10th anniversary of the ’98 NL Championship team. Also, tickets are half off for that game, so — you know, cheap is good. Anyway, just wanted to get this on the ol’ radar, see if we can make something happen.
  • Oh yeah, almost forgot. We’re doing another Ducksnorts fantasy league this year. It’ll probably be Yahoo! because their platform is pretty reliable and, as an added bonus, it’s free. Let me know if you’re interested.

That’s all for now; more as it happens…

Party Like It’s 1989

by Geoff Young on Feb 20, 2008 (27) Comments

Doing some research for an article, flipping through Baseball America’s 1989 Almanac. The book doesn’t list top prospects by team, but it does list them by league. Here are some familiar (and not-so-familiar) names for you:

Triple-A

Double-A

Class-A

Short-Season/Rookie

Also, Andy Benes was named College Pitcher of the Year. San Diego selected him with the first pick overall in the ’88 draft. Other Padres draftees from that class to reach the big leagues include Ray Holbert (3rd round), Bryce Florie (5th round; part of the July 1996 deal that brought Vaughn to San Diego), Nikco Riesgo (8th round), A.J. Sager (10th round), and Mike Humphreys (15th round).

Spring Training Notes (19 Feb 08)

by Geoff Young on Feb 19, 2008 (57) Comments

I kind of run on autopilot around here sometimes and forget to ask y’all what you want. Let me know if there’s anything specific you’d like me to focus on this spring or whatever. I’m open to suggestions, but if I don’t hear anything, I’ll just assume all is well and keep doing whatever the heck it is I do around here.

Meanwhile, back to our February optimism:

  • Jim Edmonds underwent an insane workout regimen this past off-season (hat tip to Coronado Mike). Quoth personal trainer Jim Moss, a member of the Los Angeles County SWAT team:

    I told him that just because we’re 38 doesn’t mean we’re over the hill. We’ve got a lot to offer. … Most guys half his age quit, but his motivation level was unbelievable. He’s a special case as far as I’m concerned.

    We’ll see whether motivation translates into results. At the very least, he and workout fanatic Trevor Hoffman should get along just fine.

  • Speaking of Trevor, he’s fired up and ready to go. He’s even toying with the idea of returning to a windup, something he hasn’t used since at least 1995 (hat tip to Oside Jon).
  • We’ve talked about Khalil Greene ad nauseum, but it seems that rumors of his desire to leave San Diego were unfounded. Quoth Greene:

    There is nowhere else I’d really rather play than San Diego.

    Yeah, that’s kind of unambiguous. Novel that someone went straight to the source to find out what the guy is thinking rather than trying to read between the lines.

  • Looks like the Padres will carry 12 pitchers again this year. This puts extra pressure on bench players, who will be asked to do a lot — perhaps too much. So, yeah, talk about Tony Clark seeing time in the outfield probably is legit.
  • Speaking of Clark, he’s drawing praise for his attitude. Heh, I almost said “altitude.”
  • Paul McAnulty is another guy fighting for a bench job (hat tip to Baseball in Fort Wayne). It’d be nice to see P-Mac get his career in gear — if not in San Diego, then somewhere else. I love his mindset:

    I’m not trying to make the team as a pinch-hitter. My goal is to become a starter.

    Get me more guys like that, please.

  • Meanwhile, the back-end of the rotation remains a complete mess up for grabs. Maybe 12 pitchers isn’t such bad thing. Yeah, I don’t really buy that either. We’re being optimistic, remember?
  • Continuing the “feel good” theme, Mark Prior threw 31 pitches off a mound on Saturday. According to Corey Brock’s article, Prior “felt pretty comfortable and was able to focus on spots instead of mechanics and arm.”
  • Speaking of Prior’s mechanics, Rain Delay tipped us to an interesting breakdown (pun only somewhat intended) of the right-hander’s delivery.
  • Wait, we’re not done talking about Prior just yet.
  • Darren Balsley talks about his pitchers, including the obligatory “new or improved pitch” items for Justin Germano, Jake Peavy, and Chris Young.
  • The Padres were impressed enough with manager Bud Black’s rookie campaign in 2007 that they’re now seeking to lock him up long term.
  • This isn’t specifically spring training related, but the MadFriars have chatted with Kevin Goldstein about the Padres’ farm system. Goldstein on the team’s top two prospects, Matt Antonelli and Chase Headley:

    I was pretty surprised by both of them, but Antonelli’s overall game was more surprising. Before, I thought he kind of looked like a one-trick pony, you know someone that could just get on base, but this year he took a huge jump to a guy that could play second, get on base, run and smack the ball around the park.

    There are people out there that will tell you they always thought Headley would start to hit for power but I don’t think anyone thought he would put together the season that he did.

    Good stuff.

Also, we’re doing an informal meetup type thing this Friday at Tony Gwynn Stadium for the SDSU/USD game. Reader Ian C. informs us that you can buy tickets in advance at Qualcomm Stadium Gate E. First pitch is 6 p.m. Friday, so let’s meet at the ticket office at 5:40. See you there!

Free Download: Excerpts from Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual

by Geoff Young on Feb 18, 2008 (22) Comments

Okay, I said there wouldn’t be any more updates about the book until it hit the virtual bookshelves, but today I’m making a brief exception. The 28-page free download Excerpts from Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual is now available:

And for those who may have missed it the first time, we also have an insanely detailed look at the entire book. This should whet your appetite a little, I hope. Get the word out, folks — global domination is nigh at hand.

Or at least the baseball season, anyway…

OBG08 Projections for Padres Pitchers

by Geoff Young on Feb 17, 2008 (8) Comments

Yesterday we ran the hitters, today it’s time for the moundsmen:

OBG08 Projections for Select Padres Pitchers
Player No. IP ERA Range
Key: No., number of people who submitted guesses; IP, innings pitched, ERA, duh; range, lower and upper guesses for ERA.
Left-Handers
Hampson, Justin 11 48 4.21 3.50 – 5.05
Thatcher, Joe 11 58 2.86 1.96 – 3.42
Wolf, Randy 15 124 4.18 3.71 – 4.91
Right-Handers
Bell, Heath 12 81 2.76 2.25 – 3.53
Cameron, Kevin 11 53 3.78 3.10 – 4.85
Germano, Justin 14 81 4.62 3.74 – 5.50
Hensley, Clay 13 80 4.43 3.80 – 5.20
Hoffman, Trevor 15 51 3.21 2.60 – 5.00
Maddux, Greg 17 191 4.09 3.80 – 4.29
Meredith, Cla 14 72 2.97 2.40 – 3.41
Peavy, Jake 21 212 2.81 2.12 – 3.20
Prior, Mark 14 68 4.16 3.21 – 5.15
Young, Chris 17 179 3.23 2.40 – 4.15
  • I don’t know if people got tired of the project toward the end or just had less confidence in projecting pitchers (especially relievers), but there was less participation here. I’m not being critical, just making an observation. Pitchers do seem to be more difficult to project, and with relievers there is so much yearly fluctuation due to small sample sizes.
  • We may be underselling Hampson and overselling Thatcher. If the Padres get 100 or so innings of 3.50ish ERA from them combined, as we seem to think, I’ll be happy.
  • The 5.00 ERA for Hoffman is an extreme outlier. The next highest guess puts him at 3.69. Still, at his age an implosion is not out of the question. Here’s hoping that guess is wrong.
  • I love the amount of confidence we have in the Maddux projection. That is a remarkably small range.
  • I could live with Peavy’s worst-case scenario.
  • Prior might be the hardest guy in baseball to project.
  • We like Young’s chances of returning to last year’s pre-injury form, but once again don’t expect him to make it through the season healthy.

We’ll see what happens…

OBG08 Projections for Padres Hitters

by Geoff Young on Feb 16, 2008 (11) Comments

Here are the results of our community projections for 2008 Padres hitters. To see voting and discussion for an individual player, click on his name. A spreadsheet containing all of our picks will be available shortly. Thanks to all for participating!

OBG08 Projections for Select Padres Hitters
Player No. PA BA OBP SLG OPS Range
Key: No., number of people who submitted guesses; PA, plate appearances; BA, batting average; OBP, on-base percentage; SLG, slugging percentage; OPS range, lower and upper guesses for OBP + SLG.
Catchers
Bard, Josh 19 425 .278 .357 .410 725 – 816
Barrett, Michael 19 246 .263 .323 .419 670 – 830
Infielders
Gonzalez, Adrian 19 641 .293 .362 .517 780 – 935
Greene, Khalil 21 561 .257 .309 .464 730 – 832
Iguchi, Tadahito 17 532 .263 .341 .391 680 – 774
Kouzmanoff, Kevin 20 597 .294 .355 .503 800 – 1026
Outfielders
Edmonds, Jim 17 402 .255 .338 .418 645 – 840
Giles, Brian 17 531 .274 .373 .412 700 – 860
Hairston, Scott 20 392 .268 .327 .467 741 – 860
Headley, Chase 15 240 .266 .347 .435 670 – 900

A few quick comments:

  • If Gonzalez comes anywhere near that low mark, then his career has gone horribly wrong and the Padres are hosed.
  • The high-end projection for Kouz is nuts. If he does that, he’s the NL MVP.
  • The guesses on Edmonds are all over the place, although nobody sees him playing a lot.
  • We believe that Hairston is the Padres’ best slugging outfielder, and it’s not close.
  • We’re not buying into the “Headley as left fielder” movement that’s been brewing over the winter.

Tomorrow we’ll run the pitchers. Enjoy!

Friday Links (15 Feb 08)

by Geoff Young on Feb 15, 2008 (18) Comments

Food safety tip: “carpaccio” is Italian for “sashimi,” which is Japanese for “it ain’t cooked.” Just so you know.

Super quick links today. You provide the commentary…

Happy Friday!

Familiar Refrain

by Geoff Young on Feb 14, 2008 (78) Comments

On pages 141-143 of his 1985 Baseball Abstract, Bill James launches into a discussion of whether baseball dynasties are a thing of the past. This is technically his essay on the San Diego Padres, who were the defending National League champions, although only two paragraphs focus on the Padres:

I do not see the Padres as a great team, and I do not see them as likely to repeat. They’ve got three infielders that I wouldn’t put in the top fifteen men at the position. With Terry Kennedy’s defense and baserunning, he’s got to hit a whole bunch before he can help you, and he hit .240 last year. Their bench is thin. They’ve got a couple of great young outfielders and real good depth in the pitching staff, and, as mentioned, they do an outstanding job of keeping hit balls from becoming base hits. But if Atlanta, Houston or Los Angeles plays up to potential, I doubt that the Padres will be able to keep up with them.

It is tough to repeat; it has always been tough to repeat. That doesn’t change any because it is time now to have somebody repeat as champion. It is a tribute to the San Diego players that they were able to play so well together that it masked their individual weaknesses.

Now, 23 years later, you could remove many of the particulars from James’ comments and distill the following, which I think describes the Petco Park era Padres quite well:

I do not see the Padres as a great team… It is a tribute to the San Diego players that they were able to play so well together that it masked their individual weaknesses.

This is why, when I hear someone (Joe Sheehan in this case) telling the world there’s nothing to see here (hat tip to MB), my response remains constant: Yeah, what else is new?