OBG08: Chase Headley

Chase HeadleyBefore we get started, I’ve got a new article up at Hardball Times that takes a look back at what Bill James once predicted for the future of Barry Bonds. As they say, it’s interesting if you’re interested in that sort of thing.

Moving on, let’s talk about Chase Headley. Far be it from someone named “Geoff” to run smack on another person’s name, but doesn’t “Chase Headley” sound like a soap opera character? He would wear cardigan sweaters, hunt pheasant, and say things like, “Do fetch me some champagne, dear boy.”

Anyway, the real Chase Headley is a third-base prospect who will see time in left field this spring in the hope of expediting his progress. Headley’s performance at Double-A San Antonio last year (.330/.437/.580) suggests that his bat is ready for the big leagues now. Plus he turns 24 in May, so it’s not like the Padres would be rushing him.

The big questions with Headley are how much of his power spike from last season is real (his ISO jumped from .143 to .250 while moving up a level, which is a good sign, but I think the Sean Burroughs Experience has left me jaded) and whether he can play a reasonably legitimate left field. I’m hedging my bets on both counts: 350 PA, .278/.342/.454.

You know what to do…

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70 Responses »

  1. Interesting stuff on Antonelli….well not really. They say there are never any good 2B prospects because players move to the position after failing elsewhere……yeah he was drafted as a 3B so that works….remind me again why we’re downgrading him, because 2B can never have good prospects? Yeah that makes a ton of sense. Law is also just an idiot when it comes to the Padres, he takes the most adverse stances possible based on his past interactions and it just makes him look less and less professional in the process. It makes me wonder if he applied for a job and got denied at some point.

    For Headley:

    200 AB’s: .280/.360/.400

    That OBP is sure going to be nice starting in 09….oh and very, very necessary.

  2. 340 PA, .280/.381/.470

  3. Dan Fox has released the minor league infield numbers for his fielding system SFR. They seem to corroborate that Antonelli has some work to do on his defense: he was -15 runs between his two stops last year. Among Padre prospects (or former ones) Headley was +7.4 runs, Kyle Blanks at -4, and Freese at +12.

  4. A continuation to 53: the full spreadsheet of minor league infielders can be obtained from the link to the article, even if you don’t have a BPro subscription (it’s in the first paragraph that displays for everyone).


  5. Headley 100 PA, .235/.310/.360

    Back and forth from SD to Portland. Not great stats, but 2009 will be the year.

  6. I say 125 PA, .255/.330/.435

  7. With 15 precincts reporting: 240 PA, .266/.347/.435. Interesting that only three of us have Headley exceeding 300 PA this year.

  8. oh and morgan ensberg to the yankees on a minor league deal

  9. Sorry I missed yesterdays blog

  10. Keith Law has never seen Matt play so he doesnt know what he is talking about Like I said before he is a phony!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  11. RE: 33…I don’t know that it is fair to say 2B and 3B are equal in definsive difficulty…sure, they are different, but 3B is generally regarded as more difficult.

    RE: 57…Geoff, do you think it is because not too many of us are buying into this move to LF? I love me some Kouz and don’t think you can move him this year, but it is tough to take your best prospect, a plus defender at 3B, and move him to LF…that is just me though.

    Props to Law for posting the correction. I like the guy…seemingly one of the few in here that do.

  12. How can you like someone who always has to correct himself

  13. #61: It seems that way. We’ve pegged Hairston at 392 PA and Headley at 240, for a total of 632. Padres got 703 PA out of LF in ’07, which is 71 more than we project.

    Now I’m beginning to understand why folks are concerned. Then again, a lot of people (not at DS) freaked out when Dave Roberts departed, and LF ended up being our second most productive position last year.

    As always, we will wait and see…

  14. Also Matt never played ss at Wake

  15. 61: Count me among the “not sure I’m buying Headley in LF” crowd. We’re awfully interested in corner OF for a team that really believes he can start out there. Maybe we’re just looking for another bat who could replace OG when his contract runs out (Murton).

    62: Man, I hope that’s not the standard. My wife would have canned my rear so long ago.

    I think Keith Law may have a bit of a blind spot when it comes to Antonelli, but I don’t believe there’s anything nefarious behind it. We all say or write things we’d like to retract. We don’t all have thousands of people ready to pounce.

  16. How do you say you seen someone play then say you made a mistake and didnt see him play you either did or you didnt what is it Mr Law

  17. Hey Jack I understand the frustration with Law, we’ve all been there. I can’t imagine giving the guy credit for posting a correction when he either outright lied to try and prove a point, or had Antonelli confused with someone else.

    Either way, it begs the question if his prospect list is any better then any of us could put together using BP and BA and others as resources.

    My main question for Law though is this: since part of his job is to cover prospects, why wouldn’t he have seen Antonelli in person last year? Last I checked San Antonio was BA”s minor league team of the year, he couldn’t get down there to check out a playoff game or two?

    You know seeing guys like Headley, Antonelli and LeBlanc who were having true breakthrough years might be kind of important if you’re putting any weight at all on scouting.

  18. In one of his chats this year Law admitted that he had never seen LeBlanc pitch and had no idea who geer was.

  19. I agree Mark He rates players but never sees them play dont get it

  20. Yeah well he seems to like German Duran enough at 2B, but I really can’t make a solid statistical argument that he had a better year then Antonelli did.

    Facts are if Antonelli controls the strike zone how he did in both of his stops last year(especially if his BB rate stays where it was in SA) his bottom line projection is going to look a lot like what Brian Giles has given the team the past 2 seasons….at 2B thats close to an all star level of production.