Friday Links (19 Mar 10)

March 19, 2010 – 6:31 am

We’re a little behind, so some of these might be stale. Just pop ‘em in the oven, they’ll be crispy again in no time…

The Present

  • Team looks to Ready to end high turnover at batting coach (NC Times). Good luck with that when folks want a scapegoat for the fact that Petco Park is an extreme pitchers park. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • Venable back in the swing (U-T). Bill Center notes the the role Will Venable’s mother played in getting him back into baseball. It’s amazing to think that Venable didn’t play at all in his senior year in high school or freshman year in college.
  • 2010 Marcel Projected Standings: National League West (Baseball-Reference) Neil Paine has the Padres at 76-86, which seems just about right to me.
  • Blanks owes much to Padres scout (Padres.com). Corey Brock profiles everyone’s favorite 42nd-round pick. Quoth Kyle Blanks: “I don’t think that I would have done very well had I signed out of high school … and I don’t think I would have been where I’m at now.”
  • Organizational Rankings: Current Talent – San Diego (Fangraphs). Interesting assessment from Jack Moore. He underestimates Venable (that happens a lot, I used to do it myself) and completely misreads Jon Garland, saying that Garland might “give nothing of value this season,” which is unlikely given the right-hander’s track record of durability and reliability. Moore correctly identifies the bullpen as a strength.
  • Organizational Rankings: #27 – San Diego (Fangraphs). Dave Cameron confirms what we already knew: “Patience will be the key for Padre fans.”

The Future

  • Previewing the 2010 Portland Beavers: Batting (Friar Forecast). Ben gives us the lowdown. I am interested to see what happens with attempts to turn Logan Forsythe into a second baseman and Mitch Canham into Robert Fick. Ben also looks at Portland’s starters and relievers.
  • Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – San Diego (Fangraphs). Marc Hulet offers his thoughts. I agree with much of this, although he misses the boat a little here: “The club’s best young offensive player is Kyle Blanks but he’s not really well-suited to the park.” In fact, there is no park that can contain Blanks. His power will play absolutely anywhere.
  • Pumped about Pads’ young blood (U-T). Bud Black on pitching prospect Simon Castro: “I really like what I’ve seen of him. He not only has stuff, he knows how to use it and he wants to learn.”
  • Toy-toting prospect not playing around (U-T). Fun article about Aaron Cunningham, who talks, among other things, about playing winter ball in Venezuela: “Games down there are like a big party. The fans are cool, unbelievable. You score a run and they throw their beers in the air. The music’s nonstop…. It was my first time down there, and it was a serious trip, crazy. But I learned to respect the game more. I saw how they live down there, how blessed we are up here, and I learned not to take anything for granted.”
  • It’s clicking for Antonelli (U-T). Tim Sullivan profiles Matt Antonelli. Interesting quote from Tony Muser, who worked one-on-one with Antonelli in 2009, when the former first-round pick was struggling: “I was expecting some locker rooms torn up. We talked about that. It’s OK to have a temper tantrum. But with his personality, he kept it all in. Everybody complimented him on he’s handling it so good. I didn’t like it. I wanted an emotional reaction. It’s OK to get upset with yourself. It’s OK to want it.” Hey, what’s the worst that could happen? It’s not like you’ll break your hand and have the boss try to stop paying you because of it.
  • Youth is served with Padres’ Decker (Padres.com). Corey highlights young outfielder Jaff Decker. I cannot wait to see Decker at Lake Elsinore this year.

The Past

The Geeky

  • State of sabermetrics: Insights from the 2010 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (Hardball Times). Sal Baxamusa recaps the event and slings in some choice nuggets: “Lots of teams have lots of good sabermetricians working for them. A decent number of teams have analytically minded general managers. But in talking with and hearing from various front office personnel, one recurring theme kept coming back: integrating serious, rigorous sabermetric thinking into a formalized decision-making framework is hard.”
  • Odds Are, It’s Wrong (Science News). Speaking of which, Tom Siegfried offers this sobering thought: “Supposedly, the proper use of statistics makes relying on scientific results a safe bet. But in practice, widespread misuse of statistical methods makes science more like a crapshoot.” [h/t Slashdot]
  • Franchise Strengh Index History for All 30 Teams (Baseball Analysts). Sky Andrecheck presents some interesting attendance data.
  • Lidge vs. Pujols: I was in the wrong spot (Morgan Ensberg’s Baseball IQ). Former Padres infielder Morgan Ensberg has a blog. This entry deals with the 2005 playoffs and involves current Padres infielder David Eckstein. Pretty cool to hear the player’s perspective on some of this stuff. [h/t Hardball Times]
  • Spring Training Records Matter, A Little (TSI on Sports). Longtime reader Jay Stokes observes that “it is never a bad thing to have a good record. At worst it says nothing about your regular season, but other years it says you will probably have a decent season”
  • Padres 2010 Potential Milestones (Gaslamp Ball). Who knew Kevin Kouzmanoff was the franchise leader in HBP?

That should keep you suitably unproductive for much of the day. It’s been a long week, you deserve it. I’ll sign a note for you if your boss asks.

By Geoff Young | Posted in Notes and Links | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (1)

Mailbag: Is Oscar Salazar Any Good?

March 18, 2010 – 7:02 am

Reader LynchMob sends us the following:

I’m not an Oscar Salazar fan… can you help me understand how/why he’s going to make the Opening Day roster?

He seems perhaps a good study on the concept of “Replacement Level” players… he seems like he’s got to be below-replacement-level… but if that were true, then the Padres could (and would) replace him, right?

I guess my bottom line is that I’m hoping a player who is at (or above?) “Replacement Level” will come available at the end of ST and Oscar will be replaced by that guy… or that I’m wrong about Oscar.

I’m always making comparisons. It’s how I try to understand the world. If I don’t know what something is, I try to figure out what it might be like. I define things in relation to other things.

Did you ever see that Star Trek: The Next Generation episode where Captain Picard attempts to communicate with a member of another race whose language consists entirely of metaphors? It’s like that, only without space travel and Ashley Judd. (There I go making comparisons again.)

Anyway, once upon a time there was a young right-handed hitter without a real defensive position. His initials were O.S. and he got a brief cup of coffee in his mid-20s before being sent back to the minors for several years, where he put up numbers, forcing an eventual return to the Show. In time, O.S. became a productive member of a big-league bench and enjoyed a nice little career as a role player.

I’m talking about Olmedo Saenz, but the same description may well apply to another player in a few years. Oscar Salazar played eight games with the Detroit Tigers in 2002, then disappeared until 2008, when he resurfaced with the Orioles, for whom he hit .284/.372/.506 in 94 PA.

Salazar got off to a hot start for Baltimore the following year and was traded to the Padres for submarining right-hander Cla Meredith in July. In San Diego, Salazar hit .269/.339/.463 in 121 PA while seeing action at both corner outfield spots, as well as first and second base.

In 271 PA, Salazar owns a career line of .286/.356/.490. Several projection systems like his chances in 2010:

  • Bill James: .293/.341/.476
  • CHONE: .284/.336/.465
  • Marcel: .278/.347/.463

I haven’t compiled IVIE yet, but my personal guess for Salazar is .278/.338/.457, which is more conservative than what many experts predict. Bearing in mind that projections are not the same as reality, and we don’t know how a given player will respond to irregular playing time after having been a starter in the minors, this is a nice skill set.

Salazar can hit. Assuming he adjusts to a bench role, he should be a better version of Edgar Gonzalez. Without knowing off the top of my head what current replacement level values are, I’m pretty confident they’re below what Salazar has accomplished so far at the big-league level and what he is projected to do in the future.

In short, Salazar offers a potent right-handed bat and the ability to play multiple positions, albeit none well enough to merit a full-time job (to say nothing of the fact that it would make no sense for a rebuilding team to let a 31-year-old with minimal big-league experience block younger guys with equally little experience but potentially brighter futures). If the Padres can’t use someone who fits that description, I’ll bet another team could.

By Geoff Young | Posted in Mailbag, Roster Notes | Tagged , , , , , | Comments (2)

Comping Cabrera: Eeyore’s Rebuttal

March 17, 2010 – 10:09 am

I don’t know why I’m so fascinated by Everth Cabrera. He doesn’t figure to be as critical a piece of the eventual puzzle as guys like Kyle Blanks and Mat Latos, but Cabrera’s skill set intrigues me.

Also, there’s the fact that he successfully made the jump from A-ball to the big leagues. We’ve noted that Rafael Furcal followed a similar path. We’ve identified several other players with comparable skill sets, including Pete Rose, Steve Sax, and Chuck Knoblauch. Reader Pat suggested Delino Deshields.

All of these comps make sense on a certain level. However, they also have something in common that potentially distorts the picture: These players were all really good and enjoyed successful careers.

We need a counterexample to show what can go wrong. We need Mike Caruso.

Caruso, part of 1997’s infamous White Flag Trade, became the starting shortstop for the Chicago White Sox in 1998. Like Cabrera, he skipped the high minors and made it look easy:

                A-ball                   MLB
        Age  PA   BA  OBP  SLG  Age  PA   BA  OBP  SLG
Caruso   20 617 .311 .365 .416   21 555 .306 .331 .390
Cabrera  21 550 .284 .361 .399   22 438 .255 .342 .361

Caruso’s sophomore campaign didn’t go so well. He hit .250/.280/.297 in 564 PA, then returned to the minors before making a 12-game cameo with the Royals (arguably still the minors) in 2002. Last year, at the ripe old age of 32, Caruso played five games for Newark of the independent Atlantic League.

Although this is only one data point, it’s worth acknowledging. I don’t mean to kill anyone’s buzz about an exciting young player that I happen to like a great deal, but it’s useful to know that there is precedent for someone jumping from A-ball, succeeding initially, and then falling to pieces.

Do I think Cabrera will regress to the extent Caruso did and find himself out of a job by age 25? No. Do I think it could happen? Sure.

Ryan from Padres, Chargers, Illini Blog got me thinking about this topic a while back when he posed the following question:

Is there any indication from Cabrera’s rookie numbers that he won’t end up like [Josh] Barfield? Does the fact he gets on base more often and plays a more marquee position really make him that much more valuable than Josh was after the ‘06 season?

I can’t point to any studies, but my suspicion is that Cabrera’s superior on-base skills will help. Barfield succeeded initially despite his inability to discern balls from strikes. He never solved that particular problem and it caught up with him.

Some guys (Vladimir Guerrero, Alfonso Soriano) can hack their way to nice careers. Most people, however, don’t possess their hand-eye coordination or plate coverage. Anecdotally speaking, even the guys who start reasonably strong with such an unrefined approach tend to stagnate (Jose Guillen, Corey Patterson) or fade early (Carlos Baerga, Juan Samuel, Cory Snyder).

But maybe I’m telling myself this because I want Cabrera to be better than Barfield turned out to be. If history has taught us anything, it’s that learning from history is harder than it looks.

That said, Ryan has identified two points (superior on-base skills, greater defensive utility) that should work in Cabrera’s favor going forward. Cabrera was also a year younger than Barfield during their respective rookie seasons. As Bill James demonstrated many years ago (and others have since confirmed), that makes a huge difference.

By Geoff Young | Posted in Commentary, Projections | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (9)

Me, Elsewhere: Translating Batting Lines into Pitching Lines

March 17, 2010 – 7:12 am

My latest at Hardball Times dusts off an old Bill James toy that attempts to show what a hitter’s output might look like recast as a pitching line. For example, if we take Adrian Gonzalez’s 2009 season, we get the following pitching line (see the article for methodology):

   IP   H   R  ER  BB  SO  ERA SO/9
142.2 153 124 112 119 109 7.07 6.88

Then, because I’m not content to leave well enough alone, I found actual pitching comps for these lines, e.g.:

Player          Year    IP   H   R  ER  BB  SO  ERA SO/9
Adrian Gonzalez 2009 142.2 153 124 112 119 109 7.07 6.88
Jason Bere      1995 137.2 151 120 110 106 110 7.19 7.19

I ran some career numbers, too. Here’s what I got for Gonzalez:

Year     IP   H   R  ER  BB  SO  ERA SO/9 Comp
2004   10.2  10   5   5   2   6 4.22 5.06 Scott Sanderson 1993
2005   40.1  34  16  14  10  37 3.12 8.26 Mike Mussina 1997
2006  142.2 173  97  87  52 113 5.49 7.13 Tom Gordon 1996
2007  158.2 182 116 104  65 140 5.90 7.94 Dave Stewart 1994
2008  157.0 172 109  98  74 142 5.62 8.14 Juan Guzman 1994
2009  142.2 153 124 112 119 109 7.07 6.88 Jason Bere 1995
Total 652.0 724 467 420 322 547 5.80 7.55 Jeff Juden 1998

So what? I dunno, it’s just fun. Read the article…

By Geoff Young | Posted in Notes and Links | Tagged , , , , | Comments (0)

Junior’s Revamped Swing and Other Tales of Derring-Do

March 15, 2010 – 8:32 am

In which the author recounts the events of Sunday afternoon’s baseball game between the Cleveland Indians and the San Diego Padres using only his bare hands and a plethora of bullet points…

  • Chris Young looked like Chris Young. Fastball in the high-80s, everything up, lots of pitches. He needed 29 to make it through the first, and was pulled in the fourth after 69. Word is, he’s worked on shortening his delivery with runners on base. Whatever. The two runs he allowed came on a bases loaded HBP with an 0-2 count and a solo homer to Jhonny Peralta, one of the few projected Indians starters in the lineup.
  • Cory Luebke worked two scoreless innings, mainly against scrubs.
  • Nick Hundley drove in two runs with a triple to center in the third. He hit the ball well, but Cleveland center fielder Trevor Crowe really should have caught it.
  • Chase Headley looked comfortable at third base. He wasn’t challenged, but it’s good to see him get his reps.
  • Kyle Blanks and Jerry Hairston Jr. both hit the ball hard a couple of times.
  • Drew Cumberland came into the game late as a pinch runner and swiped second base while wearing one of those goofy giant helmets.

On another note (and one entirely too important for bullet points), Corey Brock tells us about Tony Gwynn Jr.’s revamped swing:

[Gwynn] has gone to a narrower base in his stance, as his feet aren’t nearly as spread apart as they were a year ago. Also, Gwynn has closed his front toe to help keep his front side closed. Finally, he’s holding his hands lower.

The new approach didn’t produce results on Sunday (a couple of lazy fly balls). Still, Gwynn looked like a big-league hitter in the box, which I couldn’t say when he used to set up with his weight on the front leg. It may or may not pay dividends (those minor-league numbers don’t lie), but I’m glad that Gwynn is trying to incorporate the lower half of his body into his swing. At the very least, he’s giving himself a chance.

By Geoff Young | Posted in Game Recaps | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Comments (2)

I Think I’m In Love

March 14, 2010 – 11:22 am

No, not the Eddie Money song. In fact, this costs no money.

Our friends at Seamheads mentioned something called the National Pastime Almanac the other day. According to the web site, “The National Pastime Almanac is a Baseball Encyclopedia with statistics, streaks, rankings, records, awards, etc. from 1876 through 2009, regular and post season.”

Uh, okay. I might be interested.

Also, it’s free. As in, completely. And addictive. As in, completely.

What can you do with this thing? I’m still working that out (which is half the fun), but mainly you can create all kinds of lists. Here are a few I’ve thrown together so far:

Players Who Hit 100 or More Home Runs in Their First Four Years with the Padres

  1. Adrian Gonzalez, 130
  2. Nate Colbert, 127
  3. Ken Caminiti, 121
  4. Phil Nevin, 108
  5. Ryan Klesko, 106

Padres Pitchers Who Won 20 Percent or More of Their Team’s Games

  1. Randy Jones 1976, 30.1%
  2. Randy Jones 1975, 28.2%
  3. Gaylord Perry 1978, 25.0%
  4. Clay Kirby 1971, 24.6%
  5. Andy Benes 1993, 24.6%
  6. Dave Roberts 1971, 23.0%
  7. Pat Dobson 1970, 22.2%
  8. Andy Hawkins 1985, 21.7%
  9. Jake Peavy 2007, 21.3%
  10. Clay Kirby 1972, 20.7%

Career Double Plays Turned per 162 Games by a Padres Shortstop (min. 500 games)

  1. Ozzie Smith, 102.7
  2. Khalil Greene, 95.5
  3. Chris Gomez, 94.7
  4. Enzo Hernandez, 90.6
  5. Garry Templeton, 87.1

National League West 2004-2009

  1. Dodgers: 513-459 (.528), .267/.337/.411, 3.98 ERA, att. 45,678/game
  2. Padres: 484-489 (.497), .256/.328/.401, 4.08 ERA, att. 32,277/game
  3. Giants: 473-498 (.487), .261/.326/.402, 4.23 ERA, att. 38,099/game
  4. Rockies: 467-506 (.480), .269/.342/.432, 4.77 ERA, att. 28,966/game
  5. Diamondbacks: 446-526 (.459), .255/.324/.414, 4.47 ERA, att. 28,113/game

Oldest Padres manager? Jack McKeon, 1990: age 59. Youngest? Jim Riggleman, 1992: age 39.

Padres who have hit 30 or more doubles, hit 30 or more homers, stolen 20 or more bases, and struck out fewer than 100 times in a season? Steve Finley (1996), Ryan Klesko (2001).

Which team has the longest streak of hitting 100 or more homers? The A’s: 41 years (1969-present). Hitting fewer than 100 homers? The Reds: 61 years (1876-1938).

I could go on, and I have. This is a beautiful thing. I’ll talk to you later; I’ve got stuff to do.

By Geoff Young | Posted in Notes and Links | Tagged , , , , , , , | Comments (4)

IVIE 2010: Last Call for Projections

March 14, 2010 – 8:27 am

It’s time to start wrapping up our community projections. We’ve got about 20-25 guesses for most players so far. If you’ve contributed already, thanks. If you haven’t, head on over and do that thing:

I’ll leave these open till Friday, tally everything up over the weekend, and present the final results sometime after that. It’ll be awesome.

By Geoff Young | Posted in Projections | Tagged , | Comments (0)

Me, Elsewhere: Padres Preview at BDD

March 13, 2010 – 7:55 am

Our good friends at Baseball Daily Digest have allowed me to grace their virtual pages with this year’s preview of the Padres. Much of this is review material for regular Ducksnorts readers, but I like to think you’ll enjoy it anyway.

From the article:

This is going to be a learning season. The young players will learn more about themselves and what it means to be a big leaguer. The ownership group will learn more about its players (specifically, which ones will form the nucleus of the next contending Padres team) and its fans. The fans will learn that young players will drive you crazy and that no ownership group is perfect. With luck, they will learn a little patience as well, as these young players and this ownership group figure out how to make things work in San Diego.

Read the rest of the article at BDD.

By Geoff Young | Posted in Notes and Links | Tagged | Comments (3)

Giles Retires

March 11, 2010 – 9:30 pm

Former Padres outfielder Brian Giles announced his retirement Thursday. I’ve had plenty to say about Giles over the years, most of it good.

I’ll defend the trade that brought him home to San Diego for as long as anyone will listen. And I’ll always appreciate him for carrying the club on his back in 2005, leading the Padres to their first post-season appearance in 7 years.

Here’s the nasty truth about getting old. Sometimes when skills disappear (health is a skill), they don’t return:

  • 2008: 653 PA, .306/.398/.456, 137 OPS+
  • 2009: 253 PA, .191/.277/.271, 55 OPS+

We never saw the prodigious power out here that Giles displayed in his prime, when he got to play in the smaller NL Central parks. What we did see were ridiculous plate discipline and a hard-nosed style of baseball that made him a pleasure to watch.

Three moments that exemplified the type of player Giles was will stick in my memory for a long time:

  • He once chased a fly ball into the right-field corner at Petco Park, grabbed the fence with his bare hand, and pulled himself up the wall, nearly making a spectacular backhanded grab of what turned out to be a home run. The only thing that kept him from catching the ball was a fan, who must have been shocked to see Giles’ glove up there, a good 12-15 feet off the ground.
  • Another time, he took out Houston’s catcher (I think it was against Houston; that’s not the part that sticks with me) on an attempted double play. It was a clean play that knocked the poor guy off his feet and sent his throw sailing down the right-field line, allowing Giles to score and prolonging the inning.
  • My favorite Giles moment, though, occurred when he nearly decapitated Kevin Kouzmanoff after Kouz delivered a game-winning single in his rookie campaign. This was during that horrendous slump at the beginning of Kouzmanoff’s Padres career. As soon as the winning run crossed home plate, the entire team went nuts. And whenever the team went nuts, you could always count on Giles to take things to an entirely different level. The memory that lingers is of Giles flying in from who-knows-where to knock Kouz on his noggin. I remember thinking, “Dude, he just got a hit. Go easy on the kid; you might need him tomorrow.” But going easy never seemed to be Giles’ way.

Thanks for everything. We had fun. From the looks of it, so did you.

By Geoff Young | Posted in Baseball | Tagged , , | Comments (10)

The Game, It Was on the TV

March 10, 2010 – 11:44 pm

I watched a few innings of the Padres split-squad game against Cleveland on TV Wednesday night. It was 1-1 in the second when I turned it on, 10-2 in the sixth when I turned it off to pick up Mrs. Ducksnorts from the airport. Some observations:

  • For whatever reason, the Indians feed was being broadcast in San Diego. I hadn’t expected my first look at this year’s Padres to come accompanied by commentary from people I didn’t know, talking about players I probably wouldn’t see all year. The Cleveland announcers were fine, it’s just… well, I couldn’t figure out why they were there… on my screen. You know, where Padres broadcasters should be.
  • The broadcast had Aaron Poreda’s fastball at 85-89 mph. It also had his pitches all over the place. I’d hoped the latter was an optical illusion, like how TV adds 10 pounds, but the final line (0 IP, 3 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 0 SO) doesn’t lie. Steve Webber is the pitching coach at Portland. Dear Coach Webber: Please fix Poreda.
  • Matt Stairs isn’t in great shape, he’s in unrecognizable shape. I had no idea that’s who I was looking at when he batted. Congrats on passing the beach ball. Must’ve been painful.
  • Grady Sizemore hit a grand slam off Jackson Quezada. That’s a fair fight.
  • I see why folks like Simon Castro. He’s got long arms and legs, and his fastball ran 91-94 mph on Wednesday. He mixed in some breaking balls, but I’m not prepared to offer an opinion on those.
  • At some point, the broadcasters interviewed Indians pitching coach Tim Belcher, who touched on an aspect of statistical analysis that often gets overlooked. Belcher noted that something like only 7% of first-pitch strikes turn into hits. He credited “the guys on the fourth floor” for coming up with that number and said it helped him sell his pitchers on the merits of throwing first-pitch strikes. We hear about statistical analysis being applied to front-office decision-making processes and maybe to managerial strategy, but I like that at least one coach is using it to try and influence behavior. I’m sure there are others… as well there should be.

It wasn’t much, but it was a start. That’s better than nothing, and I’ll take it for now.

By Geoff Young | Posted in Game Recaps, Spring Training | Tagged , , , , , | Comments (5)