Mailbag: Are the Padres Stealing Wins?

September 2, 2010 – 6:35 am

Bad timing for the headline, but this is a fun one…

Hi Geoff,

Here’s a question for your mailbag:

I hate it when the Padres steal a base. Why? Because Mark Grant and Dick Enberg (whom I love) inevitably bring up that stupid correlation between stolen bases and wins this year for the Pads. Is this correlation outside of the norm for the league? What about doubles? Do the Padres tend to win as often when they hit at least one double?

It’s kind of like saying that the Padres are more likely to win when they do things well. Well… duh?

Thanks,
Andy

Thanks, Andy, for the question. It’s funny you should mention this; I was just wondering the same thing a few weeks ago. I actually started running numbers and drafting an article, but then stopped because it seemed heavy on the duh factor and I wasn’t sure anyone else would find it interesting.

First, a brief philosophical interlude… People love stories. People love when things makes sense. One of the key narratives coming into the 2010 season was that the Padres would be aggressive on the bases this year. We heard the story from the beginning of spring training and came to believe it. Might as well believe in something…

By Geoff Young | Posted in Mailbag | Tagged , , , , , , | Comments (1)

Who Moved My… What’s That Thing Called?

September 1, 2010 – 10:33 pm

If you can separate yourself from the experience for a moment, there’s no denying this is fascinating stuff. Everyone loves an underdog, but everyone also loves a train wreck. When the two collide… it usually ends up as reality television, but that’s another story (doubtless told by an idiot).

I’ve heard that people are panicking on the heels of seven straight losses. You know what’s the worst thing you can say to a person who is panicking? Don’t panic.

I have no idea if that’s true, but it sounds good. I said it with authority and conviction… it seems plausible. So I won’t tell you not to panic. But really, don’t panic…

By Geoff Young | Posted in Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , | Comments (3)

Me, Elsewhere: What if the Padres Had Drafted Travis Fryman?

September 1, 2010 – 12:41 pm

The second installment of my “Reimagining the 1987 draft” series is up at Hardball Times. In our alternate reality, the Padres don’t take Texas right-hander Kevin Garner with the 10th pick overall, choosing instead Florida high schooler Travis Fryman.

In this scenario, Fryman would have been the Padres’ third baseman during the Ken Caminiti years (Cammy never gets traded to San Diego because Steve Finley is with the White Sox, not the Astros). In a fun coincidence, Fryman’s most similar player according to Baseball-Reference is… you guessed it, Caminiti.

On the not-so-fun side, Caminiti was a much better player during his Padres tenure than Fryman was during that same stretch:

Player     PA   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+  WAR
Fryman   2593 .276 .335 .447 100  12.1
Caminiti 2351 .295 .384 .540 146  18.6

I touch a bit on the Caminiti/Fryman comparison in the article and also marvel at the idea of Fryman and Gary Sheffield on the left side of the infield in ‘92. One comparison I didn’t make but which strikes me as interesting is that between Fryman (who came up as a shortstop) and Khalil Greene. Here are their numbers through age 27 (per 162 games):

Player  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+
Fryman 637 89 175 35  5 22 100 60 141 .274 .336 .445 107
Greene 587 80 150 40  4 22  86 45 123 .254 .312 .444 102

Fryman moved off shortstop at age 24 and was flawed as a hitter in many of the same ways as Greene, albeit to a lesser degree. Fryman also didn’t have, as far as I know, personal issues that kept him from fulfilling his potential.

It’s not much of a stretch to say that Fryman is the player we hoped Greene would become. Then again, given the Padres’ poor track record in terms of developing young infielders, maybe Fryman wouldn’t have enjoyed the career he had. Or maybe the Padres would have traded him for that era’s equivalent of Brian Buchanan, say, Mike Simms?

Just a little something fun to ponder while we wait for this year’s Padres to snap out of their current funk. If you like geeking out on what might have been, read the article.

By Geoff Young | Posted in Draft, Notes and Links | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Comments (0)

Toast

September 1, 2010 – 8:00 am

It’s all about expectations. If you’d told me before the season that the Padres would have 76 wins on September 1, I’d have been thrilled. If you’d told me the same on August 25, when they won their 76th game, not so much.

Bad time for a six-game losing streak. Then again, is there ever a good time for one? It’s a rhetorical question; just keep reading…

By Geoff Young | Posted in Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (13)

Tuesday Links (31 Aug 10)

August 31, 2010 – 12:25 pm

So, yeah…

By Geoff Young | Posted in Notes and Links | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (5)

Pressure: You’re Soaking in It

August 31, 2010 – 5:55 am

Really? Is this how it’s going to be? I guess a pennant race isn’t complete without at least one irritating stretch.

Welcome to it.

The Padres came out strong against Arizona lefty Joe Saunders on Monday night, with Miguel Tejada launching a first-inning bomb to left-center. They had a 2-0 lead before Saunders even recorded a single out. Twenty-seven outs later, the Padres still had those two runs. Keep reading, or poke yourself in the eye; your call…

By Geoff Young | Posted in Game Recaps | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (7)

That Went Well

August 30, 2010 – 6:38 am

As weekend plans go, I can think of better ones than getting swept at home by the Phillies. One that immediately leaps to mind is not getting swept at home by the Phillies.

I wish they hadn’t gotten so thoroughly trounced by the Astros before coming to San Diego. I can live with an opponent having talent or motivation, but both is too much. I’m feeling curmudgeonly today; proceed at your own peril…

By Geoff Young | Posted in Commentary | Tagged , , , , , , , | Comments (7)

Friday Links (27 Aug 10)

August 27, 2010 – 7:07 am

Now, with 30% more iron… irony… something…

  • Study Finds Independent Bloggers “Least Trusted”, Likely Denied Press Credentials in Baseball (Biz of Baseball). In related news, independent bloggers find study least trusted. [h/t BBTF]
  • Rob Dibble Thinks Stephen Strasburg Should ‘Suck It Up’ (FanHouse). Every village needs an idiot, I suppose. Quoth the one in question: “Stop crying, go out there and pitch. Period.” Presumably Dibble is accepting responsibility for whatever outcomes his “suggestion” might yield, including financial reimbursement of player and team if further injury results. Eh, what do I know; heeding the medical advice of a guy who blew out his shoulder and was washed up at age 29 is probably a great idea (although in my defense, Joe Posnanski isn’t impressed by Dibble’s nonsense either). [h/t BBTF]
  • Strasburg predictions (The Book). Speaking of which, Tom Tango looks back at expectations for the former Aztec. [h/t SweetSpot]
  • 2010 Scouting Report (The Book). Tango is doing that thing again this year… you know, that thing he does every year. Go, be a part of it. Here’s the direct link for the Padres.
  • Feet first, or head first? (Inside the Padres). Tom Krasovic talks about Jaff Decker’s injury.
  • Teaching Sabermetrics (Pitchers and Poets). As one who has been known to dabble in both sabermetrics and poetry, I found this amusing. [h/t BBTF]
  • Save the Outrage for a Guy Who Deserves It (M.C. Antil). Roberto Alomar? Really? Dude, even the recipient of Alomar’s spit isn’t behind you on this one. I suggest you redirect your outrage toward the guy who took your stapler; just don’t go burning down any buildings, mkay? [h/t BBTF]
  • Interview: Dave Winfield (Dayn Perry). Quoth Winfield: “Bud Black is a great manager. He’s taught them pitching, base-running and defense. They fight and scratch and claw, and they embrace the underdog role. Even the fans don’t quite believe it.”
  • M’s fans will return when the model’s built (SweetSpot). Quoth Neyer: “People like Larry Stone and Dave Cameron and Rob Neyer really, really, really want to believe that if you start building something cool, everybody’s going to want to watch… To most people, though, it’s just a big mess. Nobody wants to see the kit, or all the pieces and the airplane glue and the paint thinner. Everybody wants to see the completed model, with the paint and the decals, hung from the ceiling with fishing line.” Huh, I think we just went through that here in San Diego.
  • PART I – Advanced Experimentation 410: The Zduriencik Supremacy, or Containing an Implosion (Management by Baseball). Jeff Angus offers some interesting thoughts on last year’s flavor of the month. Part 2 and Part 3 are also available. [h/t BBTF]
  • Cooperstown Confidential: The Accomplished Mr. Brown (Hardball Times). Bruce Markusen recalls the contributions of former Pirates GM Joe Brown, a pioneer in procuring and developing minority talent.
  • Aging Players – Bargains for 2011? (Baseball Analysts). Patrick Sullivan presents an intriguing list. Mark Ellis might make for a nice option at second base next year, assuming his price is low due to the poor 2010 showing… and assuming his poor showing is a blip rather than the beginning of the end (Tadahito Iguchi sends his regards).
  • Marlins’ profits came at taxpayer expense (Yahoo!). Jeffrey Loria and David Samson engaging in shenanigans? It wouldn’t be the first time. [h/t BBTF]
  • Will Leaked MLB Financials Alter Revenue-Sharing? (FanGraphs). From Maury Brown’s article: “And while the leaked documents are an incredible look inside how clubs truly operate, greedily we should demand more. Those at the top of MLB’s revenue-making ladder should be placed under the same scrutiny.” Sounds great, but I’m not holding my breath. If there’s one thing the owners excel at, it’s circling the wagons.
  • Incomplete thoughts on ground-ball pitchers (Ivan Bezdomny’s Baseball Blog). Interesting stuff: “You can’t be a great pitcher on ground balls alone, at least not over a course of several years. You need to have strikeouts.” [h/t BBTF]
  • Hot Topic: Attendance (Gaslamp Ball). From the article: “Teams that have sudden success do not have their largest boost in ticket sales for the current season. They have it the following season. Part of that is about the hype for the team and part of it is about people trying to secure playoff tickets.”
  • Say It Ain’t So: Shoeless Joe Jackson’s “Black Sox” Jersey in Baseball Hall of Fame is a Fake (Hauls of Shame). Wow. Just wow. [h/t BBTF]
  • Heath Bell Takes Another Step Forward (FanGraphs). Really? Could’ve fooled me. Don’t get me wrong, I love Bell and what he’s meant to this team over the past few years, but I do miss those 1-2-3 innings: 16 in 53 appearances (30.2%) through August 26 this year vs 24 in 68 (35.3%) in 2009.
  • An underrated fastball (Hardball Times). Ricky Zanker likes Bell, too.
  • Padres 2010 Instructional League Roster (MadFriars). There are some interesting names on this list: John Barbato, Adys Portillo, Jason Hagerty, Jonathan Galvez, Jedd Gyorko, Edinson Rincon, personal fave Jeudy Valdez, Rymer Liriano, Yair Lopez (someone please return his plate discipline), Everett Williams… The guys at MadFriars also have a couple of interviews up behind the paywall: one with Randy Smith about the Instructional League and one with Jason McLeod about the 2010 draft.
  • Umpires Are to be Seen and Not Heard (Crashburn Alley). On the bright side, at least Ryan Howard didn’t blow out a knee while being tackled by his manager. [h/t SweetSpot]
  • Superstitions a way of life for some Padres (U-T). Moral of the story? Be nice to the groundskeeper or things could get wet.
  • Chat: Marc Normandin (Baseball Prospectus). Marc likes the Padres and thinks they match up better against the Phillies than against the Giants in a potential playoff scenario. The bullpen? “This is not a Petco bullpen, this is a pen full of really, really good pitchers.” Also, someone is posting questions as “Geoff Young’s Biggest Fan”… I hope it isn’t Kathy Bates. [h/t reader Lance]

And thar ye have it.

By Geoff Young | Posted in Notes and Links | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (5)

Like Tom Browning and Kirk Gibson, but Not Really

August 26, 2010 – 7:01 am

Crazy times in the National League West on Wednesday. The two teams chasing the Padres came back from 10-1 deficits. The Braves ended up losing to Colorado, 12-10. At least Cincinnati had the decency to fight back and beat the Giants, 12-11, in 12 innings.

Not that the Reds didn’t try to give it away. Mike Leake pinch-hitting in the seventh? Francisco Cordero batting for himself with the bases loaded in the 12th?

Thank goodness Bruce Bochy brought in his closer, Brian Wilson, to work the eighth of a game the Giants were then losing, 10-5. Wilson threw 23 pitches that inning, then sat in the dugout for a long time while his team scored six runs, before returning to work the ninth. Pablo Sandoval sat for a long time, too, which maybe helps explain why he committed San Francisco’s fifth error of the game. Whatever, we’ll take it.

Meanwhile, back home in San Diego, the Padres took care of business against the increasingly sad Diamondbacks. Sure, Stephen “I’m No Matt Bush” Drew went 4-for-4 with two doubles and two homers, but his teammates went 3-for-29, pushing Drew’s efforts into the “oh, by the by” file.

Wade LeBlanc? He served up the two homers. That will happen; people should be used to it by now. LeBlanc isn’t going to blow the ball past hitters, but he will challenge them, which means that sometimes stuff goes kaboom. Tom Browning turned the same recipe into a tasty career. Mmm, tasty…

By Geoff Young | Posted in Game Recaps | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments (6)

Me, Elsewhere: There but for the Grace of Steve Finley…

August 25, 2010 – 7:25 am

My latest at Hardball Times examines how the 1987 draft would have unfolded had we known then what we know now. This is the first of a four-part series and covers picks 1 through 8.

Although the Padres didn’t pick until the 10th spot, they would have been affected by the revised fifth pick. In our redraft, the White Sox take Steve Finley there, which means the Orioles never trade him to the Astros, who never trade him and Ken Caminiti to San Diego. That kills the Padres ‘96 season, and without such success to build on, I’m not sure they go out and get Kevin Brown before the ‘98 campaign. Without Brown, maybe that magical season never happens and the Padres are still playing their home games in an ancient, spacious football stadium… or in some other city.

On the bright side, in our alternate reality, the Padres end up with a pretty good player at 10. But that’s a story for another week. In the meantime, if you like to indulge in the occasional game of “what if,” head on over and read the article.

By Geoff Young | Posted in Draft, Notes and Links | Tagged , , , , | Comments (0)