OBG08: Khalil Greene

Khalil GreeneI wonder if anyone has an opinion about Khalil Greene? As has been discussed at great length (most recently by MB at Friar Forecast), Petco Park kills Greene’s offensive game above and beyond what we might expect.

The good news, at least from a forecaster’s perspective, is that Greene pretty much does the same thing every year. So long as he remains with the Padres, and assuming the flukish injuries that dogged him before last year are behind him, expect more of the same. I’ll say 600 PA, .251/.302/.456. If he somehow ends up somewhere else, add 20 points of BA and OBP, and about 45 of SLG.

Your thoughts?

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63 Responses »

  1. re: Santana, completely agree with a lot of the posts here. Up until two weeks ago, I thought he’d been traded already. When nothing happened, I thought that was a smart move on the Twins to keep Santana into the season. Santana and that other lefty at the top of the rotation would be pretty good in AL Central, and the Twins can wait out either of the Empires or other rich team in contention to blink and trade for Santana in mid-season. I bet they could have had at least the same package as now.

    I’m not happy with this trade if I were a Twins fan.

  2. 50: when he’s healthy, Sweeney is a fearsome RH power bat. I think you are right about that role. Then again, if he’s healthy, I think the Yankees are looking for a RH power bat for 1B which would be perfect for Sweeney.
    At this point, the Padres can also be looking into Josh Phelps who can play catcher in emergency.

  3. Re KG and his splits. I took a closer look at his numbers the other day and found something I thought very interesting, and something which may make him worth more to the Padres than to another team. Although it may be a trick of small sample size, in fact, he does not really hit that much better on the road than at home; he hits like a madman throughout the NL West parks, except for dodger stadium, and better than at Petco throughout the rest of the NL (and the occasional AL park), but not nearly as extreme as the NL West difference.

    NL West: 503 PA’s .299/.362/.708!
    All Other Parks: 623 PA’s .265/.313/.539
    Petco: 1093 PA’s .228/.288/.370

    So there’s definitely a difference in BA and SLG between home and away, but the big difference is between home and the NL West road parks. Like I said, this might be a sample size issue, but it sure makes him look more valuable to us.

  4. 650 PA’s .265/.315/.480

    I seem to be a bit optimistic about everybody. I sure as hell hope I’m right…

  5. Pat, good stuff. It’s also probably a park factor issue, considering Coors and Chase field are the two best hitters parks in the NL. i.e., if we adjusted all of his road numbers by each park, they may look more similar.

    Also, yeah, I agree that sample size is an issue with all of this splits stuff.

    Anyway, I think I’m all parked out.

  6. For Khalil Greene I’ll go with .255/.310/.445 in 550 PA.

  7. I say 615 PA, .255/.295/.465

  8. Problem with that Pat is that he does still play fully 1/2 of his games at Petco…and only ~ 25% in other NL West parks…So 75% of the time he is stinky, but the other 25% he is good. Is that worth $12-$14mm per year to the Pads?

  9. MB, I agree with you about Coors and Chase, but I was really surprised by how well he hits at Phone Co, which is generally considered a pitcher’s park, I believe.

    CM, not exactly. He’s still good the other 25% of the time he’s on the road, just not as good as he is within the West. Also, even when he’s in Petco he’s still giving us plus defense at a premium position. I think Phantom’s post #35 shows pretty clearly he’s worth darn close to the numbers you put up (when inflation and revenue growth is taken into consideration).

  10. Pat…I can’t disagree with you that he may be worth that in the current baseball landscape, I just can’t see the Pads dropping that kind of cash on him.

  11. .260/.320/.460

  12. 60: I think they will if they don’t have options, and as we’ve all discussed many times before, there are not many, if any, good options. There certainly aren’t internal options at this point. And what is the point of trying to trade him for another SS? I could defnitely see them trying to sign him for 3 more years while Cumberland grows up or other options may become available.