OBG08: Khalil Greene
Tue, Jan 29, 2008
by Geoff Young
I wonder if anyone has an opinion about Khalil Greene? As has been discussed at great length (most recently by MB at Friar Forecast), Petco Park kills Greene’s offensive game above and beyond what we might expect.
The good news, at least from a forecaster’s perspective, is that Greene pretty much does the same thing every year. So long as he remains with the Padres, and assuming the flukish injuries that dogged him before last year are behind him, expect more of the same. I’ll say 600 PA, .251/.302/.456. If he somehow ends up somewhere else, add 20 points of BA and OBP, and about 45 of SLG.
Your thoughts?
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
January 29, 2008 at 7:41 am
very good estimate. I’ll go 610 PA, .260/.301/.465
January 29, 2008 at 7:44 am
530 PA’s .260/.310/.465 one short stint on the DL
I dont know if anyones else heard Peavy on too Much Show Yesterday but he said that he talked to Greenie and that he wants to stay in SD but he won’t take the SD discount, so I guess it is a money thing.
January 29, 2008 at 7:53 am
Well put me down for a slight regression with KG….oh and another injury:
400 AB’s .250/.300/.440
I think we all know that KG, if he is really looking for a deal more similar to Furcal then Lugo has at most 2 more years in a Padres uniform.
I would definitely go 4/32 with KG, but at 10M seems too steep.
Mark
January 29, 2008 at 8:05 am
2: If that’s true, that’s fantastic news. Money can always be negotiated. You can’t negotiate family.
As the resident KG fan-boy, I’ll go more optimistic.
530 ABs. .268/.316/.457
January 29, 2008 at 8:07 am
Re: 4 Greenie has the Pads by the you know whats because there are no viable replacements for him if it takes 4 years/$32M I say get it done.
What are your thoughts CM? - j/k
January 29, 2008 at 8:09 am
MLBTR is reporting that Crasnik thinks the Pad’s have interest in Mike Sweeney and that the Nady/Murton talks have slowed.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
January 29, 2008 at 8:12 am
What are the Pads going to do with a DH who can no longer hit?
January 29, 2008 at 8:18 am
2: It was some interesting phrasing from Jake. He said Greene doesn’t care where he plays because there’s no team near his home so he’s always going to be away from home, whether it’s a one hour flight or a three hour flight. He said Khalil likes playing in San Diego but wants to be paid fair market value. Before Peavy came on one of the 1090 guys said that Khalil’s agent doesn’t have any other big names and may be trying to make a name for himself and get a big payday. I could absolutely see his agent telling Khalil to just wait for free agency.
My prediction: .265/.330/.490 with 30 homeruns and 40 doubles and an All Star selection.
January 29, 2008 at 8:34 am
I think Khalil will be traded if he can’t get a long term deal done by next winter.
January 29, 2008 at 8:37 am
I think you start the conversation at 4/32 and see where things go from there. It’s in the Padres’ best interest to try to throw up that kind of offer now, before the 08 season. If the Padres wait till next year, they risk Khalil having a monster year and his asking price going up. Additionally, they also risk more deals to SS like the deal that Tulo just got. The more contemporaries that sign next year, the higher the price for Khalil will go.
I’d love to do a 4/36 with some incentives built in.
January 29, 2008 at 8:38 am
9: Agreed. Hopefully the team can reach a deal with Khalil that makes sense for both sides. He’ll be a Padre through 08 for sure, and I would imagine that the team will set an arbitrary deadline of November 15th (or something) for a long-term deal to be completed before they deal him.
January 29, 2008 at 9:13 am
Six precincts reporting: 534 PA, .259/.310/.462.
January 29, 2008 at 9:16 am
For Khalil, put me down for 606 ABs .255/.333/.499 and hopefully I’m not too late for the following predictions:
Bard: 450 ABs .254/.376/.404
Barrett: 150 ABs .243/.311/.388 (traded at midseason for fringe bullpen prospect and spot taken by Colt Morton who puts up identical numbers as Barrett for less money)
Tad: 650 ABs .266/.354/.399
Kouz: 650 ABs .289/.388/.499
January 29, 2008 at 9:19 am
greene,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
this is going to be real hard to predict. he could go so many ways with this upcoming season.
i guess i’ll go .250/.310/.450 only 530 PA’s
January 29, 2008 at 9:37 am
Finally, my two cents on the Khalil Greene situation. I tend to take the opinion that the Padres should try to retain players that are the most useful for the team at positions of need (Peavy, Gonzalez, Antonelli) and trade away players who could benefit other teams more than they benefit the Pads. Of course this assumes that other teams are willing to give the Pads fair value for their players in the form of other players who fill positions of need.
Taking a glance at Khalil’s home/road splits, it’s clear to me that he would be worth more to another team than he is to the Pads. His mediocrity at home is not a fluke. On the road, he hits like Miguel Cabrera. At home, he hits like Chris Gomez. Why should the Pads give this guy 10% of their total payroll? If Towers can get another team to trade a young club-controlled center fielder (plus a serviceable SS, preferably with speed) for Greene, I say it would be a good deal for the Pads. This would be a win/win. Basically, the player that the Padres trade away is worth less than the player that the other team would be getting. I’m thinking something like Ellsbury, Lugo plus cash for Greene. I can see it now. They’d have to add an extra “e” to the Greene Monster for all the homers Khalil hits in Beantown. I see a trade like this going down some time over the next year. Towers will be patient and wait for the best deal he can get.
This is the same logic that leads me to believe that the Pads should look into trading Headley for a young stud OF or pitching prospect. Headley’s offense is an extreme plus for a 3B, but he’s blocked at that position by Kouz, who I really believe is going to be an elite 3B. To realize Kouz’s full potential, they could trade him to a team that needs a 3B for a prospect with good CF defense and good hitting. Everybody wins.
January 29, 2008 at 9:46 am
15: I don’t think there’s any way in hell the Sox do that. Ellsbury won’t even be moved for Santana, let alone Khalil.
The big problem with Khalil is that we all know what he does on the road, but his stats are still relatively uninspiring overall. All it takes for any GM to low-ball the Padres is to say “But c’mon, an OBP under 300?”
I would love for the Padres to get a king’s ransom for Khalil, but I just don’t think it’s possible. I also thing that given the organization’s utter lack of depth at SS, that he’s likely a player the team can’t afford to deal.
January 29, 2008 at 9:49 am
Im not even sure if the Sox would do Crisp and Lugo + cash for Greenie.
January 29, 2008 at 10:28 am
So, it may come as no surprise that I think this is probably KG’s last year as a member of the Padres…but it may surprise you that I would predict this…
.262/.297/.488 449 PA’s
Count in an injury to take away a couple of weeks, but he improves both offensivly and defensivly this year to become better in the eyes of many…of course prompting the Pads to move him b/c we won’t give him $12-14mm year he will need to sign. Off to another team that will fork over the cash…
I think Brian articulated it well, but I don’t see any way that we get that type of deal from Boston…but don’t be shocked to see him moved. It is a “Moneyball” play…he is an overvalued commodity in the market. Where can we exploit that? Toronto, Detroit, St. Louis or the Rangers seem like they would be the right fit.
January 29, 2008 at 10:34 am
18: Do any of the teams that you mentioned have pieces we need or could use? I don’t know other teams’ propsects that well, but off the top of my head I cannot think of any elite SS or CF prospects on any of those teams.
I know that you advocate moving Khalil, but there’s no point in moving him just to move him. If you can’t get decent value back, and your in a position to contend in 09, you’re better off with him rather than without him (and a hole at SS).
January 29, 2008 at 10:44 am
I’m a big fan of KG, but I spent 3 years expecting him to build on his rookie numbers, I think I’ve finally learned my lesson
504 PA’s .252/.297/.472
January 29, 2008 at 10:44 am
475 PA .252/.295/.475
January 29, 2008 at 10:48 am
19: The Cardinals do have Rasmus, but I’d be surprised if they move him. He seems to be one of the reasons they shipped us Edmonds.
The Rangers have Elvis Andrus, who MiLB.com ranked 38 this year. He seems to be a couple years off, but he’s apparently a stud defensive SS whos a little behind with the bat.
Are there any other SS or CFs out there that we might able to (or want to) acquire for Khalil?
January 29, 2008 at 10:53 am
Eleven precincts: 523 PA, .257/.308/.469. Interesting that we project such a low PA total. Between injury risk and a potential trade, we don’t expect him to play a full season for the Padres.
January 29, 2008 at 11:19 am
22.
Brent Lillibridge might be someone we could get from Atlanta. I have no clue what we could offer the Braves in return. Other than that who knows. It does appear that the time is approaching to either make a move with Khalil or come up with a back up plan if he jets in free agency. I wonder too if maybe the Indians would be willing to make a move for Asdrubal Cabrera. They still have Peralta and Marte as options at 3rd and Barfield at 2nd. Khalil could be close to Pensylvania. Just a thought.
January 29, 2008 at 11:25 am
620 PA, .260/.302/.451 and KG stays in SD at least until mid season of 09, by which time Cumberland would be ready to go. Then, KG will get traded to another team with better Home Park Factor and a new star is born. The Padres gets the much needed starting arm along with a prospect arm to go the rest of the way into the playoff.
That’s my dream anyway.
Speaking of trade, from THT: the deal that brought CY and El Hombre to SD is here.
http://tinyurl.com/3ye9vh
But wait, the Glenn Davis trade is in it too and worth the read.
January 29, 2008 at 11:52 am
I’ll go .255/.315/.450, 560 PA’s.
January 29, 2008 at 11:57 am
I think Khalil is with the Padres the whole year and has an excellent season. 587 PA, .257/.323/.461.
January 29, 2008 at 12:28 pm
620 PA, 270/315/480
I think this season will be his career year. I think we’ll get a combination of his rookie season and last season (but more like the power from last year then the patience from his rookie season).
I’ve always wondered why Khalil can’t hit at home, there doesn’t seem to be logical explanation for it (it’s not like he completely changes his swing like Orange Giles does). For his career, his OPS at home is 850 (same as AGon’s last season) and on the road it’s 658 (only Ray Durham and Omar Vizquel were worse in the NL last season). Every Padre hitters stats drop in Petco compared to the road, but none to the extent that Khalil’s do. How could the park effect him so much more then anyone else? I guess it could be just a statistical fluke.
Baseball-Reference has a cool tool where you can adjust his splits to a full season. Khalil’s road stats are pretty awesome, check out the number of extra-base hits on the road. I think that’s why he’s leaving, can you imagine him in Colorado (at least he can’t go there now).
http://www.baseball-reference......&team=
January 29, 2008 at 12:36 pm
28: I think you crossed up his road and home numbers, but the effect is the same. He’s a monster on the road. Not so much at home.
MB at FriarForecast has been discussing the PETCO factor on Khalil over the past few days. It’s a great read and probes some potential explanations for the difference in numbers.
January 29, 2008 at 12:39 pm
When you look at the difference between his home and road stats, you have to think that there is no way he is going to stay in San Diego. If he went somewhere else, he’d be a superstar. The Padres are going to have to way overpay him (not likely to happen) if they want to keep him. As long as Petco keeps playing as an extreme pitchers park, this is always going to be a problem (as much as I would have liked the Padres to sign Andruw Jones, he probably wouldn’t have wanted to play here).
Of course, the opposite is going to be true on the pitching side. Pitchers should really want to come play here because the park is going to make them look so much better. That’s why I thought their failure to draft Rick Porcello was such a glaring mistake — they should be able to get pitchers for cheaper because of Petco Park.
People talk about the hometown discount, of course there will be one because San Diego is such a great place to play. But the Padres will also have the pitchers discount in their favor, while they will have a batting penalty that will hurt them.
January 29, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Re 28: Yeah, typo in that post. Obviously his numbers are higher on the road than at home. That’s what I get when I try to eat and post at the same time!
January 29, 2008 at 12:59 pm
OT … just a reminder … BP’s STAT OF THE DAY
Bottom 5 2007 AL Second Basemen, by VORP
Player, Team, EqA, VORP
Josh Barfield, CLE, .204, -13.6
Alexi Casilla, MIN, .192, -10.9
Mike Rouse, CLE, .060, -10.6
Erick Aybar, ANA, .194, -10.3
Jose Lopez, SEA, .219, -9.7
January 29, 2008 at 1:06 pm
OT … I don’t think I’d heard that the Padres are going to play in the HOF game this year … learned about it with the news that this will be the last HOF game …
http://tinyurl.com/yrdvnc
January 29, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Who is Greene?
253/310/455 in 604 plate appearances
January 29, 2008 at 1:35 pm
30: I still don’t think that Khalil is interested in ballooning his stats somewhere else. He probably does like it here, but would like to be paid for what he perceives he’s worth.
Have any comparable SS to Khalil signed deals recently? Even FA deals, because that’s what we’re going to have to be thinking of.
Some recent deals along with average OPS+ from 04 - 07:
Eckstein: 1 year/4.5 million - 88 OPS+
Vizquel: 1 year/5.5 million - 84 OPS+
Tulo: 6 year/30 million - 108 OPS + (07 only)
Renteria: 4 year/40 million (signed in 2004) - 101.5 OPS+
Furcal: 3 year/39 million (signed in 06) - 95 OPS+
Rollins: 5 year/40 million (signed in 05) - 104.5 OPS+
Peralta: 5 year/13 million (signed in 06) - 96 OPS+
Wilson: 3 year/20.2 million (signed in 06) - 90 OPS+
Khalil’s average OPS+ from 2004 - 2007 is 101.5.
That makes him equal to Renteria offensively over that span, slightly worse than Rollins, and worse than Tulo (who only has 1 year of data).
I hate to say it, but it’s looking more and more like Renteria’s contract should be the model for Khalil. I’m not sure how they compare defensively (defensive stats are way above my head, most of them seem to conflict), but I’d say that Renteria’s contract certainly seems like a reasonable starting point for discussion.
January 29, 2008 at 1:36 pm
GY, could you delete 35? That posted before I was ready.
January 29, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Gammons reporting Santana to Mets, if signing him can be worked out.
January 29, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Well that certainly makes the Mets the odds on favorites in the NL next season. They are going to roll out a front 4 of:
Santana
Pedro
Maine
Ollie
That’s so much better then what they had last year it doesn’t even seem like the same team.
January 29, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Arizona adds Haren, Mets add Santana. San Diego isn’t the clear favorite to have the best staff.
January 29, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Can’t belive the Mets didn’t have to give up Fernando Martinez to get Santana. That is some SERIOUS negotiating by Minaya. So to get this straight…
The Yankees were ready to give up Phil Hughes and the Sox were prepared to give up good packages that included Elsbury or Lester and the Twins went with the Mets. Humber and Mulvey to me are very underwhelming and unless Gomez learns to hit he is basically who? The second coming of Endy Chavez maybe. I obviously am no scout but I think I would feel a lot better if I was a Twins fans getting Hughes or Elsbury. I probably would have liked the Lester package a lot more too. Call me crazy but I just don’t get it.
January 29, 2008 at 3:36 pm
I think that the Red Sox and Yankees only cared whether Santana went to each other so they didn’t really show much interest in trading away young talent as their only “need” for Santana was to keep him away from the other.
However, that certainly is an uninspiring package. I would think that the Twins would probably be better off just holding on to Santana for now and see how the beginning of the season plays out — you never know what is going to happen. It just seems like a very bad idea to trade away a once in a lifetime player for prospects which certainly aren’t that highly regarded.
January 29, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Also, I think the Twins had two goals in trading Santana — one to get as good as players as they could get and also to get him out of the American League. Since the Mets were the only team in the NL interested and who Santana wouldn’t veto their leverage was seriously compromised. I can understand the goal of getting them out of their league, but why take junk for him?
January 29, 2008 at 3:45 pm
42: This just strikes me as very poor negotiating by the Twins. They should have made the deal when they had the bidding war between the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox. I’m sure that they didn’t want to see Santana in the AL, but I’m thinking that this probably isn’t as good of a deal as they could have gotten from the Mets earlier. Mostly, by allowing the team’s time, they gambled that the teams wouldn’t be able to set their rotations without Santana. Guess that was a misread of the market. All this being said, why strike now? Conceivably, they could have waited until later in the season when injuries struck one of the three teams. I’m guessing that they feared that a trade would have been hard to pull off given Santana’s contract extension demands (they could conceivably miss the deadline if Santana wouldn’t agree on a contract extension with the target team). Still, I would not have struck the deal now. I think it should have been done earlier in the summer; and if not, then it should have been held until teams were more “needy”.
January 29, 2008 at 3:58 pm
43: btw, I write that with really no knowledge of who these Mets prospects are. Sadly, I’m just going on the general reaction of the media (shoot me now!) and some of the posts here.
January 29, 2008 at 4:21 pm
I completely agree with Marsh. Supposedly Santana only wanted to go to either the Mets, Yankees or Red Sox. However, I doubt that he would veto a trade at the trading deadline if the Twins were completely dead (which is why he’d be traded) and he was going to a contender with a chance to win the World Series. Then after that season was over he’d be a free agent and be able to get a ton of money (I’m sure much more then he’d get from the Mets) from the Yankees. I guess that you’d always rather have the money sooner then later because he could get injured this season but I wouldn’t think waiting to cash in as a total free agent would be much of a gamble. So in essence, the Twins traded Santana at the point where they’d get the absolute least for him — I’m not sure that is an effective trading strategy, but what do I know?
January 29, 2008 at 4:43 pm
The prospects going to the Twins seem to be not … prospects.
I would have kept Santana for the rest of his contract. At worst, he pitches well for the Twins, and they get a draft pick. The chances of him pitching poorly are slim.
The rush to trade these All-Star players makes no sense.
January 29, 2008 at 4:56 pm
I think the Twins GM just traded him now so he wouldn’t have to deal with him the rest of the season. That doesn’t sound like an ideal reason to trade a guy though. It also sends a message that the Twins have no interest in even trying to win which isn’t exactly the message you want to send to your fans.
January 29, 2008 at 5:38 pm
45: The only caveat is that Santana’s trade value goes down if a team doesn’t think that he would sign an extension (i.e. if he hits the free agent market, you lose the control premium)
47: That and it sends the message that your GM is a bad negotiator.
January 29, 2008 at 7:03 pm
I tihnk KG will stay healthy this season and get about 600 PA’s, but I don’t think he’ll improve his plate discipline so we’ll end up with about .250/.290/.450; I think he’ll have a little dip in power numbers after that career year last season.
January 29, 2008 at 7:08 pm
7: I guess he could be a RH bat off the bench and a way to spell AG at 1B. Not sure of his health, but if he’s not injured he could be a useful roleplayer in that case. Maybe?
January 29, 2008 at 7:11 pm
re: Santana, completely agree with a lot of the posts here. Up until two weeks ago, I thought he’d been traded already. When nothing happened, I thought that was a smart move on the Twins to keep Santana into the season. Santana and that other lefty at the top of the rotation would be pretty good in AL Central, and the Twins can wait out either of the Empires or other rich team in contention to blink and trade for Santana in mid-season. I bet they could have had at least the same package as now.
I’m not happy with this trade if I were a Twins fan.
January 29, 2008 at 7:20 pm
50: when he’s healthy, Sweeney is a fearsome RH power bat. I think you are right about that role. Then again, if he’s healthy, I think the Yankees are looking for a RH power bat for 1B which would be perfect for Sweeney.
At this point, the Padres can also be looking into Josh Phelps who can play catcher in emergency.
January 29, 2008 at 7:54 pm
Re KG and his splits. I took a closer look at his numbers the other day and found something I thought very interesting, and something which may make him worth more to the Padres than to another team. Although it may be a trick of small sample size, in fact, he does not really hit that much better on the road than at home; he hits like a madman throughout the NL West parks, except for dodger stadium, and better than at Petco throughout the rest of the NL (and the occasional AL park), but not nearly as extreme as the NL West difference.
NL West: 503 PA’s .299/.362/.708!
All Other Parks: 623 PA’s .265/.313/.539
Petco: 1093 PA’s .228/.288/.370
So there’s definitely a difference in BA and SLG between home and away, but the big difference is between home and the NL West road parks. Like I said, this might be a sample size issue, but it sure makes him look more valuable to us.
January 29, 2008 at 8:40 pm
650 PA’s .265/.315/.480
I seem to be a bit optimistic about everybody. I sure as hell hope I’m right…
January 29, 2008 at 10:09 pm
Pat, good stuff. It’s also probably a park factor issue, considering Coors and Chase field are the two best hitters parks in the NL. i.e., if we adjusted all of his road numbers by each park, they may look more similar.
Also, yeah, I agree that sample size is an issue with all of this splits stuff.
Anyway, I think I’m all parked out.
January 29, 2008 at 10:36 pm
For Khalil Greene I’ll go with .255/.310/.445 in 550 PA.
January 30, 2008 at 3:35 am
I say 615 PA, .255/.295/.465
January 30, 2008 at 4:55 am
Problem with that Pat is that he does still play fully 1/2 of his games at Petco…and only ~ 25% in other NL West parks…So 75% of the time he is stinky, but the other 25% he is good. Is that worth $12-$14mm per year to the Pads?
January 30, 2008 at 10:05 am
MB, I agree with you about Coors and Chase, but I was really surprised by how well he hits at Phone Co, which is generally considered a pitcher’s park, I believe.
CM, not exactly. He’s still good the other 25% of the time he’s on the road, just not as good as he is within the West. Also, even when he’s in Petco he’s still giving us plus defense at a premium position. I think Phantom’s post #35 shows pretty clearly he’s worth darn close to the numbers you put up (when inflation and revenue growth is taken into consideration).
January 30, 2008 at 11:38 am
Pat…I can’t disagree with you that he may be worth that in the current baseball landscape, I just can’t see the Pads dropping that kind of cash on him.
January 30, 2008 at 12:51 pm
.260/.320/.460
January 30, 2008 at 12:56 pm
570 PA
January 30, 2008 at 6:23 pm
60: I think they will if they don’t have options, and as we’ve all discussed many times before, there are not many, if any, good options. There certainly aren’t internal options at this point. And what is the point of trying to trade him for another SS? I could defnitely see them trying to sign him for 3 more years while Cumberland grows up or other options may become available.