Here’s the deal: You and I are going to project performance for the 2008 Padres. Just submit your projected stat line, offer supporting comments, and enjoy the ensuing wackiness.
We’ll lead off with the catchers, Josh Bard and Michael Barrett.
Josh Bard
Bard didn’t duplicate his freakishly good 2006 season but still performed well for the Padres and is in his prime. Last year’s production seems reasonable, so I’ll go with 400 PA, .280/.352/.409. I’ll put the over/under on his throwing out baserunners at 10%.
Michael Barrett
Barrett was terrible in his brief stint with the Padres. Still, he has a good recent track record and, like Bard, he’s in his prime. Assuming Barrett isn’t traded before the season starts, I expect him to put last year’s disaster behind him and post numbers closer to his career averages. Let’s say 300 PA, .261/.315/.427.
Okay, now it’s your turn. Give me PA, BA/OBP/SLG for both of these guys, and tell me why you believe what you do.
37 Comments
Great idea GY!
Bard:
422 PA .289/.372/.400 and will throw out 4 runners (7%) in 08.
Bard is an OBP machine and I think he will continue to hit well (.435) with runners in scoring position. If he stays healthy I think he will have a great 08.
Berrett
294 PA .275/.355/.440
I dont think Barrett will start the season in a Padres uni but if he does I think he will bounce back without the same distractions that he had last year.
Do I have to give actual numbers to play or can I just say that I think that last year’s version of Bard is pretty clost to what I expect…and Barrett should bounce back from his Pads debut and put a better career norm type of aves up…
Also, for funsies, did you see the Big Mac to Padres almost trade from 1995?
http://coreybrock.mlblogs.com/coreybrock/2008/01/mcgwire_was_alm.html
Re: 2 give numbers!
Bard: I see him playing about 120 games, so we’ll say 395 PAs.
OBP should stay high/get better. Average probably the same. Slugging probably still down.
.270/.370/.420
Barrett: I hope that Barrett bounces back, so this might be a little more optimistic than most. Power still down. 150 PAs
.260/.320/.430
So I haven’t been around in a while, but was wondering if it had been mentioned that Ducksnorts had a shout out from Gammons recently:
Unfortunately, time keeps most of us from getting to those sites specific to teams. It’s amazing how many club officials read USS Mariner (Seattle), Fire Brand of the American League (Boston), Ducksnorts (San Diego), Athletics Nation (Oakland), Viva El Birdos (St. Louis), Lone Star Ball (Texas), River Ave. Blues (Yankees), MetsBlog.com, FishStripes (Florida), Dodger Thoughts, Bronx Banter (great writing), The LoHud Yankees Blog, Reds Reporter (Cincinnati), Bleed Cubbie Blue, Brew Crew Ball (Milwaukee) and more.
Club officials huh? Gammons? Nice work going on around here.
lol next story down….vacation was good, especially the craps tables at Mandalay Bay
MLB.com has an interesting article about old dudes still playing. Maddux is prominently featured.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080123&content_id=2354256&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
re 6 i was in vegas from the 13th thru the 16th. its always a blast am i right????
I like Bard improving his power numbers a bit with two healthy wrists, but see less at bats – if we hold on to Barrett I think a more even platoon system can be expected: the Bard: .277/.340/.425; 350 ABs
Barrett 250 ABs .260/.310/.400
If Barrett is dealt, I’d really love to see KT find a defensive backstop who would come into games for Bard if the Padres are leading after his 3rd at bat, like they treated Piazza. I think he’s that bad defensively.
I’ll say a slight decline for Bard to .280/.360/.390 in slightly more PA, say 460. For Barrett, a major bounceback to .270/.335/.420 in 200 PA.
Bard-500 PA, .280/.360/.405
Barrett-200 PA, .250/.320/.400
I think Bard’s 2007 was closer to his talent level. Barrett worries me.
Bard: .260/.345/.400, 430 PA
Barrett: .265/.330/.430, 230 PA
Great idea, Geoff. These things are always fun … and it’ll be fun to see if we can beat the projections. I’ll say Bard comes back to earth a bit and Barrett bounces back. Together, they’ll be one of the best catcher combos in the league.
Because I am slowly getting a rep for hijacking threads…did y’all see what Neyer said about the best 3B’s for the next 5 years? Here are the two paragraphs talking about KK…
• I was surprised to find Kouzmanoff with a higher OPS+ than Zimmerman, but Kouzmanoff’s defense numbers are simply horrible, easily the worst on the list. If he doesn’t get significantly better with either the bat or the glove, the Padres are left in an awkward position, because a 1.6 WARP means he’s significantly worse than an average MLB third baseman.
and then this…
With all that (and some other stuff) in mind, our tentative list:
1. Wright
2. Cabrera
3. Rodriguez
4. Zimmerman
5. Beltre
6. Ramirez
7. Reynolds
8. Atkins
9. Andy LaRoche
10. ????
Figgins and Kouzmanoff didn’t make this list because Figgins probably will continue to be a utility guy, and because Kouzmanoff’s defense last season was just so awful. If he gets a handle on that problem, though, he certainly should rank among the top 10 over the next five years.
re 13:
I saw that. Good thing it’s a prediction and not fact. The Padres front office doesn’t seem to think Kouzmanoff’s defense is that bad, I think.
13: That seems a little too harsh on Kouz defensively. He’s by no means a suberp defender, but he’s not as bad as Neyer believes.
In Fielding PCTG (an admittedly flawed stat), yeah, Kouz was only better than Braun amongst NL 3B. In terms of errors though, Zimmerman, Wright, Cabrera, Kouz, and Braun all had more than 20. Braun, Zimmerman, and Cabrera all had more errors than Kouz.
By RF, Kouz is better than Atkins and Braun. By ZR, Kouz is better than Bautista, Atkins, Cabrera, and Braun.
In summary: I think Atkins is way too highly placed on that list, and I think the same can be said of Cabrera (who I imagine will be forced off of third by 2010). Don’t get me wrong, Cabrera is an offensive stud. But if they’re going to slam Kouz for his D, other guys can’t get a pass there. And why the hell is Andy LaRoche even on that list?
Here’s Neyer’s top 10 with OPS+ (2007)
1. Wright – 150
2. Cabrera – 150
3. Rodriguez – 177 (!)
4. Zimmerman – 107
5. Beltre – 112
6. Ramirez – 129
7. Reynolds – 110
8. Atkins – 112
9. Andy LaRoche – 75
Kouz – 109
So Kouz posted a better OPS+ than Zimmerman and LaRoche and was pretty close to Reynolds, Atkins, and Beltre.
We all know what kind of April Kouz had, so it’s not a logical leap to say that if he’d produced at what we’re assuming is his norm all year that he might have posted something closer to Aramiz Ramirez.
I really think that Kouz will probably improve his D this year, and I expect him to have a pretty good season next year. In short, I respectfully disagree with Neyer. Other than A-Rod and Wright, I really can’t see anyone else on that list I would prefer over Kouz (again, I’d be surprised if Cabrera isn’t moved off 3B by 2010 – especially since he’s AL now).
With seven precincts reporting:
Bard: 422 PA, .277/.357/.407
Barrett: 232 PA, .263/.326/.421
Anyone else care to take a stab?
Beltre’s a world class defender. Same thing with Zimmerman, at least to a degree, and that’s why he gets a major edge, imo. I think I’d take Wright, A Rod, Zimmerman, Cabrera (if he stays there), Ramirez, and Beltre over Kouz if salaries were ignored. The other guys you can debate over (not that you can’t with those 6 either).
That said, I like Kouz a lot. I mean, we’re talking about the best players at the position here. He’s a real solid 3b, but I don’t think he’s top 5 or even a sure fire top 10 guy.
Mine are brought to you by Bill James:
Bard: .285/.360/.414
Barrett: .262/.319/.424
Those are about the same as the average guess on here. Interesting.
Sure put me down for:
Bard .300/.370/.440
Barrett .290/.347/.475
I guess that puts me at the over for both, but I’d imagine we’re going to see a serious bounce back year from Barrett, enough at least to warrant a fairly even split of the playing time.
#18, 20: Can you give PAs also? I’m keeping a spreadsheet. Thx!
Bard: 364 PAs
Barrett: 308
Bard 380 PA’s .265/.350/.400
Barrett 290 PA’s .245/.305/.405
im most likely being really pessimistic here
13: It’s funny he would say that because by almost all advanced stats Kouz is miles (10-15 runs) better than Atkins and Cabrera. I think it’s really on BPro’s stats that have Kouz as a huge defensive liability. Everywhere else (UZR, THT’s zone stats, Pinto’s PMR) have Kouzmanoff as a few runs below average but not a butcher.
Yeah most defensive metrics have Kouz slightly below average defensively, given any improvement at all and there really isn’t much to complain about.
As for my PA’s:
Bard(ie the new Carlos Hernandez, you know the C people like): 450
Barrett(ie the new Jim Leyritz, you know the C no one likes until he delivers a game winning hit in the 3rd game of the season…..is there room in the spreadsheet for that prediction?): 350
hmm … it looks like Kouz’s defensive stats did improve throughout the year. I remember him being quite a bit below average around mid-season (I think). Just checked THT’s and he’s even there: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pfk_WuYpfduzefA8-s0_iYw&gid=3
I’m guessing the others are close, as Ben says.
Neyer’s one of my favorite writers and all, but I don’t understand the reliance on BP’s stats.
I’m thinking that one of the two (Barrett) will get traded before too much of the season has gone by. I’ll go with the following:
Bard 475 PA, with a .285/.345/.410
Barrett 275 PA with a .265/.325/.400
I’ll go:
Bard 450 PA .275/.357/.415
Barrett 150 PA .250/.320/.365
I’m going with more regression, I think, than most on Bard, but for a 30 year old catcher in Petco, I think that’s great production. I think Barrett is toast. I looked at his splits to try to get a grip on his drop off last season. He was freakishly bad against LH pitching. The last time he was that bad was in 2004, before all of his big seasons. I’m going to go with the idea he’s lost whatever edge he had developed though experience against LH’ers to aging.
But that’s OK because Bard is going to rake.
24: And Baseball Prospectus’ fielding stats have been pretty heavily denigrated by the BTF crowd. ymmv.
Bard 450 PA .285/.350/.410
Barrett 250 PA .255/.310/.425
Bard: 440 PA, .287/.349/.427
Barrett: 198 PA, .260/.314/.401
Fourteen precincts now reporting:
Bard: 426 PA, .280/.356/.412
Barrett: 246 PA, .262/.323/.417
Bard: 450 PA, .265/.335/.400
Barrett: 300 PA, .285/.345/.475
I suspect that Barrett will be used primarily in situations that he is most likely to succeed offensively, which will help his numbers.
If he’s not traded, that is…
Bard: 410 PA, .277/.351/.402
Barrett: 281 PA, .268/.320/.417
Bard: 350 PA, .280/.365/.415
Barrett: 300 PA, .275/.335/.465
Bard: 450 PA, .290/.370/.410
Barrett: 200 PA, .250/.310/.380
BP’s PECOTA likes Bard … or at least I like what BP’s PECOTA is predicting …
STAT OF THE DAY
Top 5 2008 NL Catchers, by PECOTA Projected VORP
Player, Team, EqA, VORP
Russell Martin, LAN, .280, 29.9
Brian McCann, ATL, .275, 29.7
Josh Bard, SDN, .278, 26.7
J.R. House, HOU, .275, 25.5
Geovany Soto, CHN, .274, 23.5