Didi, Sandra (Mrs. Ducksnorts), and I checked out FriarFest on Saturday. We couldn’t stay long, but it was nice to get out of the house for a while. (The book project is making me completely mental, I must say.)
I’m happy to report that when I threw a pitch in the visitors bullpen, it arrived in the catcher’s mitt without first stopping to bounce in the dirt. I felt proud and somewhat pathetic, all at the same time.
I also lost my cell phone. Big thanks to a gentleman named Scott who found and returned it to me on Sunday. It’s troubling how dependent I’ve become on that device.
Moving onto the main event, what might be in store for third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff? In terms of projecting Kouz’s future performance, I’m inclined to ignore the first six or so weeks of 2007 and chalk it up to an adjustment period that he won’t need to repeat. With that in mind, I’ll set the bar fairly high: 600 PA, .289/.343/.482.
Am I crazy?
585 PA’s .302/.350/.475
Hey GY at the end of the year are you going to post who had the best predictions for each player?
Maybe I’m overly optimistic, but I really expect Kouz to post a higher SLG this year.
615 PAs .297/.352/.503
1 … SteveC … how do propose that that be determined? If somebody provides a good way to do this, I *might* be able, over the course of the summer/season, to get the predictions entered into a spreadsheet so that some analysis/ranking could be done.
#1, 3: I’m keeping a spreadsheet, which will be made public after we’ve gone through all the players. I’m actually more interested in how we do as a group compared to other systems, but I don’t see why we can’t revisit individual guesses while we’re at it. Good call!
I don’t think any of those are overly optimistic, ignoring April, Kouz hit .303/.355/.504. I’m going be an optimist and guess he improves a little on that to
585 PA’s .306/.360/.513
.322/.400/.626 – 612 PAs
611 PA’s .288/.360/.498
But I would not be shocked to see higher…
I was planning on taking the over with Kouz…but it seems like Stephen might be a family member or something.
Mark me down for:
600AB’s .315/.370/.525
Which would be close to a historic season in Petco, I do think this is the year when we see the park play a little better for hitters as more development is finished and the wind currents move closer to what the models(no, not those kind of models) originally said they would be.
With seven precincts reporting so far, we’ve got Kouz at 601 PA, .303/.362/.517. That’s about the same as what we’ve got for Adrian.
I love Kouz, but I’m a pessimist. I’ll go with some improvement over his overall line last year, but not quite as good as his May to end of the season stats. I also think he’ll miss a little time to injury.
573 PA, .281/.335/.477. Still a good season.
Check this out:
http://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/900448.html
OK, Kouz. He’ll get into some slump at some point but then get back up.
Also, I seem to recall the team off to slow start in April (slower than I like) so I’m not going to shoot over the moon with the numbers even if Kouz has proven to be resilient and not let his numbers bothered him too much. Can he do it again if he gets into a slump in his sophomore season? I hope so.
565 PA, .278/.355/.492 would be a very good season.
A Little OT, but Brian Bannister in an interview with MLBTR lists 3 Padres pitchers as being successful due to the ability to deceive, Peavy, Young & Maddux. Interesting interview.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
12: Good call. That Q & A is truly engrossing. Especially his thoughts on BABIP and how a pitcher can affect it.
This is completely OT, but of all the players I spoke with at FriarFest this weekend, I was really impressed by Chase Headley. He seems very down-to-earth, but eager. When I asked him how LF was, he simply responded, “big”. I’m kind of torn about whether or not it would be more beneficial for him to play full-time in Portland instead of platooning in San Diego, but I think he’s ready to play and ready to contribute.
12: Thanks for the heads up, that’s a great interview. Bannister sounds like a smart kid who’s intellectually learned the lessons that used to take years for pitchers to soak up by osmosis and intuition. It’s exciting to see sabermetric ideas finally filtering down to the players.
13: Did you speak with Matt Antonelli? I was really impressed with him when he was on 1090 last week. I try not to get too worked up over prospects but it seems like the Padres have a couple of good ones in Antonelli and Headley.
13 … re: talking to Chase … I talked to him briefly at Peoria during Spring Training 2006 … (HINT: if you’re thinking of going to ST, do it!) … he was just walking from 1 field to another and it seemed like I was the only one there that knew who he was … he said then he was surprised how tired he got at the end of the 2005 season after playing his final year of college ball and then the short-season at Eugene … a good kid, indeed … he is, and will be, easy to root for. I hope the Padres are good enough for him to start the season at Portland, that there will be no need to hope that he’s MLB-ready, but rather that they can wait until they are sure he’s MLB-ready. (Same for Antonelli)
14: Sadly, I did not get to speak to Antonelli. My wife managed to get his autograph for the both of us, but I was hooked up to a blood bag when he and Adrian were at the blood drive. My timing was just such that I missed being able to speak with both of them.
I also was able to speak to Colt Morton a bit casually during the blood drive, and he also seems like a good kid. I asked him if he’s going to start the season in Portland, and he was just kind of like, “I’ll go wherever they send me.” I’d love to see him break out in a big way this season. We badly need a credible catching prospect.
Germano also had a great sense of humor. He very candidly admitted that the league made adjustments to him ( I kind of felt like a dick asking him why he thought he had less success after his first five starts, but he was cool with it.) I asked him what his goals were for the season and he responded “Staying with the team.” He then continued to say that he’d also love to win 15 games, but for now, he’d just like to stay with the team. I mentioned something about him coming from Philly and he seemed to be relieved to be out of there.
I would LOVE to see Kooz hit .289 (assuming I keep him for fantasy purposes). The main question for him is which one is the “Real” Kouzmanoff.
Is he the one that looked like he was swinging at bee bees at the beginning of the year…or is he the guy who knocked the snot out of everything at the end of the year.
personally, I’m expecting .280, 22 HR, 85 RBI
.290/.343/.480
600 PA’s i dont think hes much of an injury risk, hopefully he keep the SO’s down
12: That’s an awesome interview. Thanks. I can see why Bannister is one of Joe Poz favorite now.
16: Thanks for the chat recap, man.
I’m not going to make a prediction for Kouzmanoff but I will point out that his season had some similarities to Adrian’s first year with the Padres. Both guys had some struggles but showed very clearly that they have the ability to make adjustments. I think Kouz will have a similar 2008 to Adrian’s 2007: Better power, maybe some problems making contact as the league continues to force him to adjust.
OK, I will make a prediction after all: .270/.325/.490, 25 HRs. I think the league has learned that you can’t leave in a lefty to face Kouzmanoff so that might hurt him a little. I think (hope) we’ll see a little defensive improvement as well.
I think we have a legitimate shot at 3 infielders with 25+ homeruns each, which is pretty impressive considering the Petco effect.
620 PA, .280/.345/.505 for Mr. Kouzmanoff. If he could get that .280 closer to .300, that’d be outstanding.
Need to relax and smile a little, go here:
http://tinyurl.com/2x755w
BTW, being my first time at the Friarfest, it was a great day.
I was so happy to be on the field, just kicking dirt, touching the perfectly manicured grass, it was so silly. I believe Geoff and Sandra can attest to the stupid smile I had.
23: I completely know how you feel. My mom, who has worked for Petco for 20+ years, has invited me to several company functions at PETCO that have offered me some unique experiences. The first two years that PETCO was open, Petco had their corporate picnic at the Park at the Park. One of the features of the picnic was playing softball in the OF grass. Nothing like it. Totally geeked out the first time.
I was also able to bat in the Padres’ private cages that are just behind the dugout. It was completely surreal.
I was bummed that my parents didn’t quite attend enough games to win the actual BP Comparades award this year. I would kill to actually take batting practice on the field at PETCO.
24: Wow, batting practice at PETCO? Are you kidding me? I hope you get to do that.
I was just thinking the whole time that it would great to play wiffle ball there.
25: It’s a Compadres reward, I think it requires attending like 50 games or something. My parents had 46. I was so ticked, they were so close.
We did get to do the on-field day for 30 games. The on-field day lets you play catch in the OF and pitch off the visitor’s mound. Nothing too crazy, but anytime you can get on a MLB field, it’s a special deal. The kids get to do announcements on the PA too, which is kind of cool.
#6- .322/.400/.626 – 612 PAs?!? I sure hope so, because that would probably take home MVP honors.
Ken Caminiti in ’96: .326/.408/.621
I’ll say .305/.370/.495 – 650 PA
I’d be real happy with that.
Re Bannister interview — It is, IMO, a tremendous interview (I actually only skimmed the 3rd part … I have to get to the others soon). But Bannister confuses BABiP with batting average, I believe. Look here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?team=TOT&year=2007&lg=ML
Under “counts.”
BABiP doesn’t fluctuate that much at all, no matter what the count is. Obviously average changes because of the k’s. Nevertheless, great interview.
Don’t count on Compadres rewards in the future – the whole system is changing (and not for the better IMHO). Season ticket holders will get vouchers at the beginning of the season with rewards based on the total games in your package. There will be no swiping of cards at each game you attend.
The non-season ticket holders will have some attendance based club that they have to buy into -I couldn’t make much sense of the explanation I was given for that at Friarfest. But if you attend games with other folks, or buy extra tickets you SOL.
Definitely agree #3 …..get a spreadsheet AND average all of our takes to get a realistic assesment. I bet as a whole we may be close to reality.
Kouz — somewhere between Bill James and the monkey: .285/.346/.488, 550 PA’s
29: If that’s true, that’s really a bummer. Do you work for the Padres or did a GSA tell you this?
Spoke to the folks manning the Compadres/Jr Padres table. The guy I spoke to assured my that the new system would bring us better stuff, and he said we could join the other program as well. I’ll have to see when the season starts.
Oh and I forgot – Kouz .290/.350/.495 650 PA
22 … good one, Didi …
OT … way OT … this got me crying with laughter … http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2triiYXSY8
Big surprise, SI.com article says Bonds is a perfect fit for San Diego… http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/01/28/cocoran.bonds/index.html.
I know we’ve debated the merits of this signing, but I think Bonds + Edmonds + Giles makes for some very shaky OF defense in a park where defense is especially important.
600 PA .290/.340/.500
35: In the spirit of not taking up too much space in the comments here, I’ve posted a diary with my purely stats-driven thoughts on this matter over at Gaslamp Ball. Feel free to read and debate.
http://www.gaslampball.com/story/2008/1/29/02118/9009
575 PA, .295/.355/.520
With 17 precincts reporting: 599 PA, .293/.353/.504.
Kouzmanoff: 303/362/520 in 547 plate appearances
34: That’s hilarious. The original movie is quite good also…not nearly as funny.
.300/.350/.480
550 PA