by Geoff Young on Feb 13, 2008
Sit down and get comfy. Like, real comfy. Okay, not that comfy — put on a robe or something, will ya?
With luck, this is the last update I’ll provide on the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual that doesn’t end with the phrase, “go buy it.” I’m expecting to deliver the manuscript to the publisher on Thursday or Friday. While we’re all waiting for that to happen, here are some things you should know:
- The book is 207 pages long, possibly 208 depending on the index (I keep thinking of other terms that should be included). The actual content is almost exactly the same length as last year’s (193 pages), with the difference resulting from a glossary and index that I believe will make this version even better in terms of serving as a reference source into the future. The lack of an index in last year’s book bothered me and although building a good one requires time and effort on my part, I’m hopeful that its inclusion will save you the same.
- Matt Vasgersian, television voice of the Padres, has written the foreword. As I was last year when Sandy Alderson graced these same pages, I am humbled beyond words by Vasgersian’s contribution to the Annual.
- While I’m at it, here’s the entire table of contents:
- Foreword by Matt Vasgersian . . . . 7
- Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . 9
- 2007 in Review . . . . . . . . . . 10
- Player Dashboards . . . . . . . . .41
- Padres Farm Report . . . . . . . . 84
- Overlooked ex-Padres. . . . . . . 126
- Driving to Cooperstown. . . . . . 134
- Padres Best by Position . . . . . 157
- Kevin Towers Trade Register . . . 164
- Glossary. . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
- Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
- And here’s a quick summary of each of those chapters:
- 2007 in Review
- Season recap, including key games and players, from the hiring of Bud Black as manager to the heartbreak of Game 163 at Coors Field.
- Player Dashboards
- Graphical representation of key players’ statistical output for 2007 and, where applicable, the previous two seasons to show trends, including comparisons with league norms by position.
- Padres Farm Report
- In-depth examination of the Padres farm system, including discussion of each team and league’s environment, capsules of more than 70 players, and the obligatory top 10 prospects list.
- Overlooked ex-Padres
- Brief look back at four players who played for the Padres in decades past and whose contributions may have been forgotten by some over time.
- Driving to Cooperstown
- Account of my 12-day drive from San Diego to Cooperstown and back for Tony Gwynn’s Hall of Fame induction, including stops in several towns along the way for the complete baseball geek road trip.
- Padres Best by Position
- Continuation and extension of work begun in the 2007 Annual, going 10 deep for position players and relievers, and 20 deep for starters.
- Kevin Towers Trade Register
- Continuation and extension of work begun in the 2007 Annual, listing every trade Towers has made since assuming the general manager role in November 1995, including the number of Win Shares exchanged in each, as well as the number of trades made by team and division.
- I’m not sure about the exact pricing yet, but it will be comparable to last year’s version.
- The book is dedicated to victims of the fires that ravaged San Diego county in 2007. In that spirit, I’ll be donating $1 from each book sold during the calendar year 2008 to the San Diego Red Cross. It’s not much, but something is better than nothing.
- Several people have asked about pre-ordering. First off, thank you. Second, because my publisher does “print on demand,” there’s no advantage to this. Seriously, it would create more work for me and delay delivery to you, which would piss everyone off to no end.
- The book will be available in print version and as a downloadable PDF. The pricing will be set so that my cut is the same either way; in other words, if the print version is out of your price range or you’re not into killing trees, then get a PDF. Makes no difference to me.
- If you’re not sure whether the book in either form will be worth your time, money, and trouble, I’d encourage you to take advantage of the free sample PDF I’ll be releasing next week. It will run about 20-25 pages and contain excerpts from each chapter. Download it, read it, decide whether you want more of it. I’m betting that you will, but I’m biased.
- If you end up buying the book and you like it, I’m thrilled to have you let me know, but I’m even more thrilled to have you let other people know. This is as close to a guilt trip as I ever hope to lay on y’all, and maybe nobody gives a crap, but I quit a damn good job to write these things and I’d like to keep doing it. That said, I’ve got a mortgage to pay. Again, this isn’t your problem, and I sure as heck don’t want you pimping my stuff if you find it unfit to line Polly’s cage or whatever, but if you’re digging it, please spread the word.
Okay, I got a little carried away there. Anyway, we’re shooting for the week of February 25. No guarantees on that date, but believe me when I say that I’m doing everything in my power to get this thing out the door because, frankly, I’m sick of working on it. (Oops, I’m informed that I wasn’t supposed to say that part out loud.)
So, yeah. Talk and stuff…
by Geoff Young on Feb 12, 2008
Welcome to the back end of the bullpen. It’s hard to say who, exactly, will be here. I’m assuming that Kevin Cameron and Justin Hampson will be back — possibly even pitching in meaningful situations now that Doug Brocail is gone.
Beyond Cameron and Hampson, the Padres have plenty of options: Michael Gardner, Enrique Gonzalez, Carlos Guevara, Wil Ledezma, Joe Thatcher, Mauro Zarate, and probably some others I’m forgetting. I won’t bother with all those guys, although you’re more than welcome to include them in your guesses.
- Cameron: 65 IP, 4.04 ERA
- Hampson: 65 IP, 4.20 ERA
What do you think? Also, if you haven’t yet submitted guesses for other players, now would be a good time to do so. I’ll leave everything open through Friday and then present the final tallies next week.
by Geoff Young on Feb 11, 2008
I’m a sucker for freak stats, so I love the fact that Cla Meredith recorded more groundball outs in 2007 than did Chris Young despite pitching less than half as many innings. Meredith gave up a lot more hits last year than he did in his rookie campaign, but despite the high batting average, the overall line against him was .296/.334/.387 — that’s sort of like Willie McGee, Luis Polonia, Lance Johnson, or any number of other “slap-and-go” hitters from the ’80s and ’90s; Mickey Rivers if you want to go old-school, Mark Grudzielanek if you want to update it. In other words, it’s a pretty empty .300
One strange aspect of Meredith’s ’07 season involved his performance at home and on the road. Those who believe that all humans interact with their environment in exactly the same way assure us that every pitcher benefits from Petco Park. Still, we wouldn’t necessarily expect an extreme groundball pitcher to be aided by a park that is most known for killing fly balls. And yet, there it is, undeniable:
- Home: .238/.268/.320 (think ex-Padres Dave Campbell and Andy Sheets with better batting average)
- Road: .345/.388/.444 (sort of a cross between Ichiro! and John Kruk — which I would pay good money to see, BTW)
I can’t explain this. On a more general level regarding Meredith, my personal suspicion is that people had unreasonably high expectations for him based on his ridiculous ’06 season. Without those expectations, last year’s performance looks pretty darned good. Seems to me he should be able to more or less duplicate that effort, and possibly improve on it a little: 70 IP, 3.23 ERA.
by Geoff Young on Feb 10, 2008
In his first full big-league season, Heath Bell dominated in every sense of the word. Bell’s stuff is closer-worthy, and he may get the opportunity to save some games in ’08 when Trevor Hoffman needs a breather.
The one concern I have with Bell is that he was worked extremely hard last year. It’s impossible to say whether this will affect him in the short or long run. What we do know is that if healthy, Bell is legit: 80 IP, 2.49 ERA.
by Geoff Young on Feb 09, 2008
Yes, the strikeout rate continues to fall, and yes, it’s scarier to watch him do his job now than it was a decade ago, but let the record show that Trevor Hoffman‘s ERA has been below 3.00 every season except one since 1996.
Eventually the magic will disappear, and that will be a sad time for all of us. Is this the year? Could be wishful thinking on my part, but I don’t think so: 60 IP, 2.70 ERA.
by Geoff Young on Feb 08, 2008
I’ve been meaning to thank everyone for submitting such great links for these every week. Not to sound all “big league” or whatever, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult for me to keep track of the conversations taking place out there in the ether. So to those of you who drop links (or any comments, really) into the daily discussion, I offer a hearty thanks.
Now that I’ve kissed your collective backside, I’m going to hit you up for more money. One project I’ve been working on this winter is the Hardball Times Season Preview 2008, and it’s almost here. Why do you care? Read these three articles and decide for yourself. . I contributed the chapter on the Padres (duh), and in my very biased opinion, the book rocks. You can buy it at all the usual outlets, but if you get it directly from the publisher (link above and also at end), THT gets a higher cut, which is a good thing for everyone involved.
Meanwhile, we’ve got links. Lots of ‘em:
- Ken Rosenthal at FOX Sports indicates that the Padres will be patient with Mark Prior, who could be ready to go by mid- to late-May (hat tip to Ben B. in the comments).
- Tim Brown at Yahoo! previews the NL West (hat tip to Didi in the comments). I find the “analysis” of the Padres a bit lacking. Yes, it’s a short piece, but some depth of thought would be nice:
They lost seven of their last 11 games, including the play-in game in Colorado. In fact, four of the seven losses were to the Rockies. And yet, Bud Black finished fifth in the Manager of the Year voting and GM Kevin Towers got a contract extension. Half the payroll, half the aggravation.
Wow, keen insight there.
- Chris Dial at Baseball Think Factory recognizes the worst fielders, and our friend Josh Bard makes the list (hat tip to Matthew Thompson in the comments). Two quick points in defense of Bard:
- Stolen bases allowed represents one facet of a catcher’s defense. In Bard’s case, that facet is distorted by the presence of Greg Maddux and Chris Young, who simply don’t hold runners.
- As a parting shot, Dial says, “If you can’t catch, at least hit, gentlemen!” I’m assuming that wasn’t directed at Bard, who ranked fifth in OPS+ among big-league catchers with 400 or more plate appearances (and second behind only the Dodgers’ Russell Martin in the NL) last year.
- The San Diego Union-Tribune is reporting that Becky Moores has filed for divorce after 44 years of marriage to Padres owner John Moores (hat tip to Phantom in the comments). Very sad.
- Corey Brock at Padres.com profiles the bullpen. Nobody’s talking about it much, but I love the depth the Padres have added over the winter.
- If you want to get in on some cheap baseball at Petco Park, watch five high school games on April 11 and 12 (San Diego Union-Tribune); admission is $5 per day. Nice.
- The guys at MadFriars do a Q&A with BaseballHQ’s Deric McKamey, who offers, among other things, his take on two of the highest-ceiling kids in the organization, Mat Latos and Kyle Blanks:
I project Latos as a #2 starter. His 89-96 MPH fastball is very overpowering and has two comps (curveball and changeup) that rate as average, so I see no reason why he needs to be thought of as a reliever. His comps aren’t always consistent, as he tends to choke his curveball, and like most young pitchers, doesn’t repeat the arm speed for his changeup. He has a good frame and fair arm action, though his delivery can get lengthy.
. . .
Blanks will challenge for the 1B role in 2009, assuming his development stays on course. He projects as a run-producing power hitter and because he hits RH pitching fairly well, he has an opportunity to play full-time. He is a decent fielder and despite his large build and below average speed, he is a good baserunner. His size really hasn’t been a concern up to this point, but you do worry about it for the long-term.
- MadFriars also has posted the Padres minor league spring training schedule (hat tip toLynchMob in the comments).
- MB at Friar Forecast is running a community prospect list type thing. Go be a part of it.
- The U-T has a cool story about a local Padres draftee who didn’t sign.
- Eric SanInocencio at Baseball Digest Daily lists his dream team of decision-makers. Paul DePodesta gets a mention, Kevin Towers does not.
- Two former Padres prospects are in the news. Left-hander Mike Bynum has retired, and outfielder Vince Faison has been suspended from his college football team (!) for DUI. So, yeah, the 1999 draft didn’t turn out so well. Except for that Peavy kid. He did okay.
- Chris Jaffe at Hardball Times chats with Bill James.
- Ken Arneson at Catfish Stew pens a thoughtful piece on the importance of keeping statistical analysis in perspective. Gem of a quote: “A map is not the treasure itself.”
- Reader Didi points us to an article at Baseball Analysts that takes a detailed look at pitch movement and the impact it has on outcomes.
- Calling my own number: Over at Knuckle Curve, I’ve started looking back at the top 100 prospects of 1998 as judged by Baseball America. The first installment covers #91-100.
- Nothing to do with baseball, but this is one of the coolest things I’ve seen done with a guitar (TotallyRox).
That’s all for now. As always, links are updated throughout the day at del.icio.us. Go buy the Hardball Times Season Preview 2008 so we can make more of ‘em, and have an excellent Friday!
by Geoff Young on Feb 07, 2008
As a reminder, we’re looking for your individual best guess on how these players will perform in 2008. Attempting to compensate for other guesses that you don’t agree with defeats the purpose of the exercise.
Okay, enough with the lecture. Now we get to the scary part of the rotation. I’ve got projections here for Randy Wolf, Mark Prior, and Clay Hensley. If you want to throw something out there for, say, Shawn Estes, Justin Germano, Enrique Gonzalez, or Glendon Rusch, go right ahead. Eric Nolte? Sure, why not.
Randy Wolf
Wolf is basically a better version of Sterling Hitchcock. Effective when healthy, Wolf hasn’t made even 20 starts in a season since 2004. He’s now 31 years old and coming off yet more surgery. I’ll go with 95 IP, 4.91 ERA.
Mark Prior
Ouija board says: 40 IP, 5.15 ERA. Also, be sure to lay all your money on 22 at the roulette table.
Clay Hensley
Hensley was real good when healthy. He did great work out of the ‘pen at the end of 2005 and finished 10th in the NL in ERA in 2006. Last year he never got on track and now he’s coming off surgery as well. I’m guardedly optimistic that the Padres will get something out of him in ’08: 90 IP, 4.68 ERA.
And people keep insisting that offense is the problem…
by Geoff Young on Feb 06, 2008
Last week I promised you a book update, so here it is: I’m making a few final tweaks to the back cover and glossary. The foreword is being written by a super secret guest (feel free to guess, although I’ll neither confirm nor deny) and I expect to have that in my hands early next week.
From there, I’ll finalize the index, send everything to the printer, and order a proof so I can examine the physical product and make sure everything is okay. Assuming it is, then I just push a button and voila, the book will be on sale.
Geoff @ The Pitch
Brandon Rosage was good enough to have me as a guest on The Pitch, where he and I chatted about the Padres, the National League, and the book. Enjoy!
My target date is the week of February 25, which is a little later than I’d hoped but also earlier than last year. And I’m still holding out hope that I can get it ready before then. Either way, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual is almost here.
To the topic at hand, what I find remarkable about Greg Maddux is how easily he made the transition from dominant pitcher of his generation to solid #3 or #4 starter. He can’t work deep into games, but he’s in great shape and it goes without saying that he knows how to pitch.
How much longer can Maddux keep doing this? I’ll bet on at least one more year: 195 IP, 4.07 ERA.
by Geoff Young on Feb 05, 2008
I was flipping through The 1996 Big Bad Baseball Annual
(aff link) and ran across Don Malcolm’s preview of the Padres that year. First off, Malcolm’s discussion of Skip Spence was inspired, if a bit incongruous. A small sampling, from page 201:
Occasionally there is a scraggy looking, doubled-over raggedy man, with a heavily weathered face and the remnants of a once-toothy grin flashing in a skeletal grimace, who can be seen wandering the aisles in the cheap seats at Jack Murphy Stadium. He stumbles from section to section, doing the Wave when no one else is, mooching quarters from the unsuspecting fans; after he’s panhandled enough for a beer or two, he starts leering at the teenaged girls, flapping his arms in some idiosyncratic display ritual that only gets him shunned, cursed at, spat on, or escorted from the park by a security guard.
. . .
Once when he was bodily restrained and being hustled from Aisle Zero (the Padres’ equivalent of Lot 49), he reportedly began screaming “I am the messenger from Zohar, the Molten Light in the Fire of Darkness! I am the freakin’ ghost of Ray Kroc come to make you pay for your sins! I am the Candelabrum of Corruption and stupid roster moves! Your children will turn to dust before your eyes!!”
Yeah, I guess that sort of behavior just might get you kicked out of a ballpark.
The other thing that caught my eye, which has nothing to do with Moby Grape or Thomas Pynchon, were the projections for Ken Caminiti and Steve Finley. If you want a clue as to why the Padres did so well in ’96, here’s a good place to start:
Cammy and Fins
| |
Proj |
Act |
| BA |
OBP |
SLG |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
| Caminiti |
.261 |
.334 |
.403 |
.326 |
.408 |
.621 |
| Finley |
.272 |
.326 |
.376 |
.298 |
.354 |
.541 |
First, be sure to thank Randy Smith for the trade that brought these cats to San Diego. Second, if we want to force some kind of connection between this and the topic at hand, it might be that projecting player performance is an inexact science at best. With that in mind, I’ll guess that Chris Young will return to pre-injury form but still have trouble working deep into games: 175 IP, 2.74 ERA.
by Geoff Young on Feb 04, 2008
Before we get to the projections, a quick note on the Khalil Greene deal that happened over the weekend. I’ve already discussed Greene’s situation at length, so I’ll just say now that I’m glad both sides worked together to get something done.
The contract isn’t as long as I (or the Padres) would have liked, but at least it eliminates the need for arbitration. It also gives the two sides a little more time to figure out whether an even longer term arrangement might be mutually beneficial.
Optimal? Perhaps not. Better than going to arbitration this year and next? Definitely.
Back to the projections. Today we turn to the pitchers, starting with ace Jake Peavy. The 2007 Cy Young Award winner has been brilliant in three of the past four seasons and is in his prime. I’ll assume a slight dropoff from last year’s performance: 210 IP, 2.85 ERA.
What are your expectations? We’re looking for IP, ERA, and a brief explanation. Talk to me…
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