OBG08: Jake Peavy
Mon, Feb 4, 2008
by Geoff Young
Before we get to the projections, a quick note on the Khalil Greene deal that happened over the weekend. I’ve already discussed Greene’s situation at length, so I’ll just say now that I’m glad both sides worked together to get something done.
The contract isn’t as long as I (or the Padres) would have liked, but at least it eliminates the need for arbitration. It also gives the two sides a little more time to figure out whether an even longer term arrangement might be mutually beneficial.
Optimal? Perhaps not. Better than going to arbitration this year and next? Definitely.
Back to the projections. Today we turn to the pitchers, starting with ace Jake Peavy. The 2007 Cy Young Award winner has been brilliant in three of the past four seasons and is in his prime. I’ll assume a slight dropoff from last year’s performance: 210 IP, 2.85 ERA.
What are your expectations? We’re looking for IP, ERA, and a brief explanation. Talk to me…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
February 4, 2008 at 8:00 am
205 IP .275 ERA 17-5
February 4, 2008 at 8:08 am
210 IP, 3.20 ERA, 220 K. He’ll regress a little bit; as dominant as he was last year, I don’t think that can hold up for long. He’ll still be very, very good, and hopefully he’ll be a little better against Colorado this year.
February 4, 2008 at 8:20 am
224 IP, 3.04 ERA, 210K
I’m really hoping that Jake learns to be more economical this year, which is the basis for my projection. I know that he didn’t improve his P/PA last year (in fact the highest of his career if I remember from the DS 08 Annual), but I really think he’s pitching more intelligently now. Hopefully next year he can sacrifice some Ks for more IPs.
February 4, 2008 at 8:29 am
I’m also hoping his pitch counts will come down this year. He’s still coming into his prime in my opinion. I even think he can do better than last year!! 215 IP, .268 ERA, 20-5, 200K’s.
AND on the joking side….
105 PA’s .400/.400/.400 HA HA HA
February 4, 2008 at 10:02 am
Jake is entering his age 27 season, and has been durable over the past three seasons. Both of those facts tend to predict future health and productivity, so we should be optimistic he can repeat 2007s numbers: 30 - 35 starts, 210 - 220 IP, >1K/IP. ERA may rise a bit - to around 2.80 or 3.00 - because his HR rate in 2007 was way out of line with his track record.
Final guess:
34 starts, 221 IP, 233K, 2.83 ERA
(Predicting W/L is a fool’s errand, IMHO.)
February 4, 2008 at 10:06 am
Peavy’s line: 219 1/3 IP, 237 K’s, 2.87 ERA.
February 4, 2008 at 10:11 am
With seven precincts reporting: 215 IP, 2.89 ERA.
February 4, 2008 at 10:22 am
Catching up with yet another fantastic Padre 1st round draft pick (1999, if memory serves): “26 year-old Vincent Faison, a walk on for The University of Tennessee football team, was arrested for DUI in Knoxville this weekend.”
February 4, 2008 at 10:43 am
205 IP, 2.65 ERA i think we just saw the beginning of Jakes prime. He is learning to pitch when his stuff isnt there by still getting guys out in a Maddux-esque style.
February 4, 2008 at 10:45 am
212 innings, 3.01 era … a few more fly balls land over the fences than last year.
February 4, 2008 at 11:48 am
210 Inn 2.93 ERA 245 SO’s
February 4, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Peavy: 210 / 2.55 / 232 K
Don’t know how many baseballthinkfactory readers there are here, but I thought this entry on the Calphalon Awards page would be of interest here:
>>The NL had a godawful catcher – Josh Bard and his 121 SBs allowed while catching ten runners. He managed –14 DRS in his 927 innings. Bard should be moved. The collection of Cub/Padre catchers, the Cadre of catchers, including Rob Bowen, Michael Barrett, Jason Kendall and Bard caught 2400 innings and were -31 DRS. That’s just abominable. If you can’t catch, at least hit, gentlemen!<<
I had no idea that he was THAT bad, and I already thought he was pretty lackluster back there. Here is the link:
http://www.baseballthinkfactor.....nfielders/
February 4, 2008 at 12:30 pm
12: Hardly a Padres starter does a decent job holding runners. That is, a lot of the blame goes to the Padres staff.
February 4, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Peavy’s line for next year: 78 PA, .193/.217/.255. Some regression from his career year at the plate last year, but still good production for a pitcher.
February 4, 2008 at 1:58 pm
They continue to baby Jake and while many had high hopes for Zona(try to win so much with that run differential again, I dare you) and Colorado(come on they were really only good for a month) I wouldn’t be surprised to see both the Padres and Dodgers make the playoffs early enough for Jake to miss a start or two down the stretch….
180 IP 3.02 202K’s
February 4, 2008 at 2:14 pm
. If you can’t catch, at least hit, gentlemen!
That sentence bugs the crap out of me. They can catch just fine it seems to me, but throwing out runners thats another story. But hey they left out the fact most of the Pad’s pitching staff have such big delivery’s that it’s not all that hard to swipe a bag or 20.
February 4, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Re: 12
“If you can’t catch, at least hit, gentlemen!”
.285/.364/.404 isn’t all that bad
February 4, 2008 at 3:30 pm
I’m going to take the unrealistically optimistic view and say Jake will actually be better next year: 210 IP, 2.12 ERA, 240 Ks, 21-4 and another Cy Young award.
February 4, 2008 at 3:49 pm
#18: Love the gutsy call.
With 13 precincts reporting: 210 IP, 2.81 ERA.
February 4, 2008 at 4:17 pm
215 IP 2.65 ERA 230 K’s
I think he’ll be about as good as last season but the OF defense won’t be as good so that will hurt his numbers slightly.
February 4, 2008 at 4:23 pm
202 IP, 2.62 ERA, 221 Ks, 2CG.
February 4, 2008 at 5:38 pm
I think rather than Mike Sweeney we should look at Craig Wilson. Sure, he’s never had the success Sweeney had.
They’re both righties but Wilson is used to the “bench” role and can also play LF/RF as well as emergency catcher. And would likely be a lot cheaper too.
February 4, 2008 at 5:53 pm
I expect Peavy to win a few less games (mostly due to the team’s lack of offense, plus the fact that their NL West opponents have very good rotations) but I think Jake will work to get his pitch count down, which will allow him to complete a few games in ‘08. He had zero complete games in ‘07. As the staff ace, Peavy needs to work into the 8th and 9th innings more often. If he improves in this area, his IP will increase and his K’s will decrease and his bullpen will be fresh.
I’m also predicting big things from Jake the next time the Pads make the playoffs, whenever that time comes again.
17-8, 2.66 ERA, 245 IP, 238 K
February 4, 2008 at 6:18 pm
215 IP, 3.00 ERA, 225 K
February 5, 2008 at 3:41 am
I say 215 IP, 2.75 ERA, 225 K
February 5, 2008 at 6:49 am
With 18 precincts reporting: 212 IP, 2.79 ERA, 226 K.
February 5, 2008 at 6:49 am
202 IP, 2.90 era
16 wins.
February 5, 2008 at 10:01 am
195 IP / 2.90 ERA / 215 K
Pitches well when healthy, and finishes top 5 in Cy Young voting, but misses three starts with forearm tightness.
February 5, 2008 at 10:14 am
222IPs, ERA: 3.13, SOs :233, 18-9, under the tutelage of Maddux, Peavy learns to cut down on IP/PA a bit, but the league is getting used to his approach, so his ERA goes up a little bit. Still, I think the Pads are better off with more innings of Peavy, even if he is a bit less effective