What to say about Brian Giles? His power is pretty much gone (except when he visits Cincinnati — that’s July 21 – 23 if you’re keeping score at home), and last year his walk totals took a dive. He also played all season with a bum knee that required surgery.
Giles is 37 years old, so a rebound is far from assured. Still, if he can stay healthy, I expect a slight uptick: 600 PA, .282/.382/.432. This could be wishful thinking on my part, but I’m feeling a little froggy today.
Before I forget, friend of Ducksnorts Steve Poltz has released his latest CD, Traveling (as mentioned in our interviews with him), and it’s a solid effort. If you think I’m saying that just because Steve gave Ducksnorts a shout-out at last week’s in-store at Lou’s, then you don’t know me as well as I thought you did. Anyway, the CD is available through his site, so get it if the spirit moves you. Be sure to check out his blog while you’re there — fun stuff.
On to the links.
I’m anxious for the next opportunity. I don’t think I’ll ever totally put behind me what happened. It’s etched forever as part of the picture. Good or bad, it’s all part of the journey.
. . .
Twice I had a chance at it. That’s a very big part of it. It’s not something you brush off. Part of being an athlete, the risk of competing, is the failure that balances success. It comes with a price.
It still hurts. I know what happened. I’ve played it over in my mind. I’ve seen the video, although I don’t have it on file. It serves no real purpose to watch it anymore.
We feel it, man.
He feels I can do more with my abilities. A lot of times I get myself out, and he’s trying to make me eliminate all those at-bats where I got myself out because my mentality and approach weren’t right. … Anybody would be dumb not to listen to Tony and not just try but to apply what he’s telling you.
Sounds like a good plan to me.
You want to know why I was so wrong about Dustin Pedroia? It’s not because I under-evaluated his tools, I can read my report on those and they’re still very accurate. It’s because I underrated just how valuable his effort is to his overall productivity.
Intangibles: You might not know what they are, but they still belong in the equation. Ain’t that a bitch.
Finally, two bonus babies from the DS archives:
And of course, the usual linkage at del.icio.us. Happy Friday, folks. Go Padres!
Before we get started, I’ve got a new article up at Hardball Times that takes a look back at what Bill James once predicted for the future of Barry Bonds. As they say, it’s interesting if you’re interested in that sort of thing.
Moving on, let’s talk about Chase Headley. Far be it from someone named “Geoff” to run smack on another person’s name, but doesn’t “Chase Headley” sound like a soap opera character? He would wear cardigan sweaters, hunt pheasant, and say things like, “Do fetch me some champagne, dear boy.”
Anyway, the real Chase Headley is a third-base prospect who will see time in left field this spring in the hope of expediting his progress. Headley’s performance at Double-A San Antonio last year (.330/.437/.580) suggests that his bat is ready for the big leagues now. Plus he turns 24 in May, so it’s not like the Padres would be rushing him.
The big questions with Headley are how much of his power spike from last season is real (his ISO jumped from .143 to .250 while moving up a level, which is a good sign, but I think the Sean Burroughs Experience has left me jaded) and whether he can play a reasonably legitimate left field. I’m hedging my bets on both counts: 350 PA, .278/.342/.454.
You know what to do…
By now you’ve heard that the Minnesota Twins have agreed to trade left-hander Johan Santana to the Mets for Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. Beyond the obvious impact this will have on the balance of power in the National League, there’s an important lesson here for those who would trade Khalil Greene simply for the sake of trading him.
Do you see the name of Philip Hughes anywhere in the list of players coming to Minnesota? I don’t, and that’s a problem. Greene wouldn’t fetch such a lofty package, of course, but when folks start suggesting that Coco Crisp and assorted scraps might be a reasonable offer, maybe it’s time to consider other options, like hanging onto the guy, getting some use out of him, and then collecting draft picks.
But we’re not talking about Greene today. Nope, we’re talking about Scott Hairston, the man who came excruciatingly close to becoming last season’s hero.
Hairston was a highly regarded second-base prospect in the Arizona system who shifted to the outfield because of “defensive deficiencies” and then got hurt. He came to the Padres last July 27 in a trade for minor-league reliever Leo Rosales. The Padres were chasing Arizona at the time, and Rosales was on the DL, which gives you a good indication of how far Hairston’s stock had fallen.
Anyway, Hairston batted .287/.337/.644 in 95 plate appearances down the stretch. If nothing else, he proved that he can crush a letter-high fastball — shades of Reggie Sanders.
The questions now are these:
We saw Russell Branyan kick serious tail toward the end of 2006 before fizzling in a more limited role last year. Could the same thing happen to Hairston?
I think the growth is legit and that Hairston will adapt to reduced playing time better than Branyan did: 400 PA, .266/.318/.481. What do you think?
I wonder if anyone has an opinion about Khalil Greene? As has been discussed at great length (most recently by MB at Friar Forecast), Petco Park kills Greene’s offensive game above and beyond what we might expect.
The good news, at least from a forecaster’s perspective, is that Greene pretty much does the same thing every year. So long as he remains with the Padres, and assuming the flukish injuries that dogged him before last year are behind him, expect more of the same. I’ll say 600 PA, .251/.302/.456. If he somehow ends up somewhere else, add 20 points of BA and OBP, and about 45 of SLG.
Your thoughts?
Didi, Sandra (Mrs. Ducksnorts), and I checked out FriarFest on Saturday. We couldn’t stay long, but it was nice to get out of the house for a while. (The book project is making me completely mental, I must say.)
I’m happy to report that when I threw a pitch in the visitors bullpen, it arrived in the catcher’s mitt without first stopping to bounce in the dirt. I felt proud and somewhat pathetic, all at the same time.
I also lost my cell phone. Big thanks to a gentleman named Scott who found and returned it to me on Sunday. It’s troubling how dependent I’ve become on that device.
Moving onto the main event, what might be in store for third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff? In terms of projecting Kouz’s future performance, I’m inclined to ignore the first six or so weeks of 2007 and chalk it up to an adjustment period that he won’t need to repeat. With that in mind, I’ll set the bar fairly high: 600 PA, .289/.343/.482.
Am I crazy?
Next up in our community projections is newcomer Tadahito Iguchi. The veteran second baseman possesses a broad base of offensive skills, but his power has declined each year since he arrived in North America.
Iguchi is 33 and will play half his games in a park that suppresses offense, which suggests that a reversal of this trend is unlikely. I’ll go with 550 PA, .263/.343/.391. What sayest thou?
The season’s almost here, so I guess it’s time to start posting on weekends again. In case you missed it, we’re doing community projections for the 2008 Padres. Today’s entrant is first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.
Gonzalez lost 22 points off his batting average from 2006 to 2007 but saw his raw on-base skills and power improve. He also came on strong down the stretch last year. Gonzalez turns 26 a month or so into the season, and although Petco Park hurts his game, I don’t think we’ve seen his best yet. I’ll say 675 PA, .294/.357/.506, and that might be too conservative.
You know the routine. Lay it on me…
Before we hit the links, a quick reminder that FriarFest is this weekend. I went last year and it freakin’ rocked. Anywho…
Bombers. Wallbangers. Lumber Co. Murderers’ Row. No such clever monikers will be applied to the Padres lineup.
Pitching brought them National League West titles in 2005 and 2006 and got them to the brink of the playoffs last year. They see no need to change their approach.
So, yeah, nothing about park effects. What else is new.
Staying in shape in the offseason is serious business, so this year I joined a serious gym. Not one of those spa types or health-clubby ones with a few rusty weights in a dimly lit corner. I joined a real Temple of Testosterone, the kind of place where beverage coolers are stocked full of drinks bearing adjectives such as “ripped,” “blast” and “explode.”
The magazines have muscle-bound, gladiator extras lifting ridiculous tonnage. The walls are lined with photos of fake-tanned super humans flexing hard enough to crack nuts between the rear folds of their purple G-strings.
I’m a sucker for any line that includes the phrase “crack nuts” — the bit about purple G-strings is just a nice bonus.
That does it for the links. If if you haven’t gotten your 2008 projections in for Josh Bard and Michael Barrett, head on over to that thread and do so.
Happy, happy…
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