OBG08: Le Menu
Welcome to the back end of the bullpen. It’s hard to say who, exactly, will be here. I’m assuming that Kevin Cameron and Justin Hampson will be back — possibly even pitching in meaningful situations now that Doug Brocail is gone.
Beyond Cameron and Hampson, the Padres have plenty of options: Michael Gardner, Enrique Gonzalez, Carlos Guevara, Wil Ledezma, Joe Thatcher, Mauro Zarate, and probably some others I’m forgetting. I won’t bother with all those guys, although you’re more than welcome to include them in your guesses.
- Cameron: 65 IP, 4.04 ERA
- Hampson: 65 IP, 4.20 ERA
What do you think? Also, if you haven’t yet submitted guesses for other players, now would be a good time to do so. I’ll leave everything open through Friday and then present the final tallies next week.
Interesting that you chose to leave Thatcher off your projections when he might be the 2nd best pitcher in the pen, K rates above 13 in the minor league’s don’t grow on trees:
Thatcher: 1.96ERA 55IP
Cameron: 4.56 ERA 42IP
Hampson: 5.05ERA 26IP
I’m guessing they realize that Hampson was mostly smoke and mirrors last year and that Cameron’s BB rate precludes him from significant duty.
I think there is a real chance for a couple of the rule 5/new guys guys to land spots in the pen to start the year.
Specifically I’d bet that both Gonzalez and Zaratre are better pitchers then either Cameron or Hampson.
Thatcher: 70IP, 2.98 ERA
Cameron: 65 IP, 3.25 ERA
Hampson: 40 IP, 4.15 ERA
Startup: 30IP, 3.25 ERA
What the heck, I’ll throw one out there for Thatcher as well: 40 IP, 3.10 ERA.
The one thing Cameron has working in his favor is the fact that guys cannot make solid contact off him. He gave up five extra-base hits (all doubles) least year. Control problems notwithstanding, that’s impressive.
I agree with 1-2: Thatcher’s da man. 45 IP 2.42
Hampson 35 1/3 , 4.72 up and down to Portland all year
Cameron, 40 IP 3.10,
Cameron: 60 IP, 3.50 ERA
Thatcher: 65 IP, 3.40 ERA (he’ll regress like Meredith did last year)
Hampson: 75 IP, 4.15 ERA (and possibly some starts early depending on how the #5 spot shakes out)
With five precincts reporting:
Cameron: 54 IP, 3.69 ERA
Hampson: 48, 4.45
Thatcher: 55, 2.77
If we get anything near that for Cameron and Thatcher, I’ll be ecstatic. A little surprised, maybe, but ecstatic.
Maddox says this year will likely be his last.
http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=133024
Yes, Yes, I know, its Maddux, not Maddox. My bad.
1: Really? You’d take Enrique Gonzalez over Kevin Cameron or Hampson. I really doubt that Gonzalez even makes this team. I think that he’s fodder for the Portland rotation initially. I’m a litle surprised at the skepticism about Hampson. He pitched pretty well last year and I think that he does have some trade value if the Padres wanted to get rid of him. Either Cameron or Hampson would work pretty well in almost every bullpen in baseball. Gonzalez is a little bit of a scrub.
Well Hampson is 4 years older then Gonzalez…I guess that might be in his favor for a more productive 2008…..but every major statistical marker for a pitcher seems to favor Gonzalez:
-A couple of points of interest:
-I’m using their minor league numbers since I don’t think you can compare Gonzalez’s starts for Arizona to Hampson’s low pressure relief IP
K rate G: 7.47 H:6.65
BB rate G: 3.24 H:3.33
HRR: G: 0.57 H:0.85
Especially given the differences in age I can’t imagine Hampson being a more productive starter. As a reliever maybe being LH gives Hampson an edge in the organizations eyes….but he seems to be a replacement level guy.
Be interesting how the bullpen shakes out. Obviously Hoffman, Bell and Meredith are locks. I would think that Thatcher would be due to effectiveness down the stretch last season. I would think that Guevara would also make the team, why else did they pick him? That’s 5 slots, so they’d need ideally one, but more realistically two more pitchers. I’d take Cameron and then Hampson.
Thatcher: 65 IP, 2.75 ERA
Guevara: 50 IP, 3.50 ERA
Cameron: 60 IP, 3.25 ERA
Hampson: 60 IP, 3.50 ERA
I think Hampson, Cameron, Thatcher, and Guevara take the final spots in the bullpen (assuming we carry 12 pitchers and Germano earns the fifth starter spot). I agree with Schlom’s reasoning on their relative rankings.
Hampson – 41 IP, 4.01 ERA, 27 K’s.
Cameron – 62 IP, 3.69 ERA, 57 K’s. His control takes a step forward and he continues to use his cutter to limit extra base hits.
Thatcher – 72, 3.42, 61.
Guevara – 51, 3.99, 48
Thatcher: 55 IP, 3.35 ERA.
Guevara: 36 IP, 2.80 ERA depending on how he does in ST, he may replace Cameron as this season’s Pepe Negro’s HVC.
Cameron: 44 IP, 4.25 ERA.
Hampson: 65 IP, 3.95 ERA including 4 emergency starts/long relieves.
Livan signed with the Twins…to replace Johan. Yup!
14: No downgrade there…
#14, 15: There is no way to replace Johan. As a cheap replacement for Silva, though, Livan makes a lot of sense.
Not sure if this was reported in these parts, but Klesko is seemingly telling people he’s retiring.
RE 17: No shame in that. Ryan has had himself a heckuva fine Major League career.
RE 16: Depends on how well Liriano does coming back from his surgery.
17 … the real “news” is that Klesko told this to Chipper Jones who then told the world via a blog … yup, this internet-thingy is catchin’ on!
Despite not getting much work in pressure situations, Cameron and Hampson each had very impressive rookie seasons. When they did pitch with the game on the line, they were real good.
Most impressive Kevin Cameron stats:
Opponents were 0 for 15 against him with the bases loaded
Opponents were only 3 for 32 (.094 BA) with RISP and two outs.
Most impressive Justin Hampson stats:
1.35 ERA in 18 games versus the NL West
Opponents were only 4 for 20 (.200 BA)with RISP and two outs
It looks like there’s going to be a carousel in the bullpen. I’d bet that they’ll keep Guevara on the big club all year so they don’t have to offer him back. But he’ll probably have long inactive periods like Cameron did last year. Signs point to Gardner getting cut in spring training however. Even with 7 relievers, the best I can come up with is: Hoffman, Bell, Thatcher, Meridith, Guevara, Cameron, Gonzalez. The last two would shuttle back and forth between AAA and the Pads, trading spots with Zarate, Hampson and Ledezma. Here goes:
Thatcher: 55 IP, 2.47
Cameron: 55 IP, 3.33
Hampson: 33 IP, 3.55
re 21: Stuff like that doesn’t continue though. Look at Cla last year. Guys usually end up right around the 30% hit rate for their career.
Cameron: 64 innings, 3.74 era
Hampson: 55 innings, 4.34 era
Thatcher: 49 innings, 3.08 era
Look at this class:
http://tinyurl.com/36vezj
there are a few Padres and ex-Padres in here of interest.
Cameron 30 IP, 4.85 ERA
Hampson 35 IP, 4.65 ERA
Thatcher 65 IP, 2.55 ERA
Guevara 60 IP, 2.65 ERA
Startup 30 IP, 2.70 ERA
With 11 precincts reporting:
Cameron: 53 IP, 3.78 ERA
Hampson: 48, 4.21
Thatcher: 58, 2.86