Ducksnorts

I trust everyone enjoyed their holidays. I walked all over town, watched a boatload of Dresden Files and Extras, and finished the first draft of the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual. It currently weighs in at 265 pages, so I’ll be spending the next few weeks trying to whittle that down a bit.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, reports indicate that Jeff Moorad is interested in buying the Padres. Moorad, who resigned as CEO of the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday, is a former player agent whose philosophy in running an organization appears to align well with that of John Moores. As the U-T’s Tim Sullivan notes:

In partnership with Ken Kendrick, Moorad’s tenure in Arizona was characterized by an infusion of youth, a reduction in payroll and a reliance on computer analysis. That strategy sounds strikingly similar to that which the Padres have espoused with uneven results, so much so that Moores declared the Diamondbacks, “almost a poster child of how clubs should be run” in a September story in the Arizona Republic.

The rest of the article is filled with quaint righteous indignation, my favorite passage being this:

If Moorad and his associates have the means to buy the ballclub, their first order of business ought to be restoring the shattered faith of the Padres’ many disaffected fans. The quickest way to achieve that would be to declare that the fire sale is finished and to plow enough cash into the product to show sincerity.

So cash equals sincerity. I think I missed that day in class.

Anyway, if Moorad does purchase the Padres (and it’s still not clear to me what role the Moores divorce plays in all this), I have a few suggestions:

Keep citing a World Series championship as the goal

Sure, it’s hopelessly unrealistic, seeing as how 97% of teams will fail in a given year, but people love hearing that crap. The trick is to say it with conviction. Prop glasses help, if you remove them at just the right time: “Our goal is… [dramatic pause, followed by removal of glasses] …to win a championship.”

You don’t have to believe this tripe, you just have to make fans believe you believe it. You know that a more reasonable goal is to be competitive, say, four years out of five (as the Padres have been since moving to Petco Park), but you mustn’t give voice to that truth.

As Karen Armstrong observes in A History of God, “Humankind cannot bear very much reality.” So lie to the fans; spin them a colorful yarn that gives them a reason to believe — talk about will and commitment, hard work and dedication, whatever — just make stuff up that sounds good. Then, once they’re happy with your little story, get back to the business of positioning the team to be competitive 80% of the time.

It’s all about perception. Once you’ve convinced the fans that you’re gunning for a World Series title, it doesn’t really matter what you do.

Keep the current front office intact

Count me on the side of Ray Lankford at Sacrifice Bunt. The brain trust has a plan and it’s mostly working. Hire someone charming to tell the media and fans a lovely story of hope or whatever it is they need, and let the decision makers focus on what they do best, i.e., make decisions.

The good news is, Moorad is the man responsible for hiring Josh Byrnes as GM of the Diamondbacks. During his time with the Red Sox, Byrnes worked with Bill James, so I think it’s safe to assume that Byrnes is reasonably well versed in performance analysis. And presumably Moorad wouldn’t have hired Byrnes if he didn’t value that aspect of his game. This should bode well for Sandy Alderson, who was the first GM to put James’ theories to use in a real working environment.

Kevin Towers? Well, Moorad interviewed him for that same D’backs GM job a few years ago. And Towers’ trade record pretty much speaks for itself.

Moorad has been running a franchise on a shoestring budget; he gets how that works. So does the current Padres front office. Given their familiarity with the system, it would be foolish to throw all that knowledge out the window, and Moorad doesn’t strike me as a fool.

Change the team’s name to Chargers and slap yellow lightning bolts all over everything

The Chargers brand has gotten under San Diegans’ skins in a way that no other sports franchise’s has. At the very least, people won’t hate you when you finish the season with a .500 record and still reach the playoffs.

Yeah, I’m kidding on that last one. Sort of…

Tags: arizona diamondbacks, arizona republic, computer analysis, dresden files, fire sale, jeff moorad, john moores, tim sullivan

Work, book, and family demands are kicking into high gear, so I’m ducking out early this year. Happy, merry, whatever you celebrate. Be safe, be well, and enjoy. I will see you back here sometime the week of January 5.

Tags: family demands

Before we get to the rest of the links, I have to call my own number. I’ve got a new article up at Hardball Times that looks back at some old projections I did here at Ducksnorts many moons ago. Good fun…

Lots to cover this morning:

• Padres experienced relative success in Moores Era (San Diego Union-Tribune). From Tom Krasovic’s article: “John Moores presided over four Padres trips to the postseason, a World Series appearance and the construction of a downtown ballpark.” Shhh, you’re going against the Angry Fan Company Line that Moores is a crappy owner. Enough with you and your silly little facts.
• Past and present Padres players respond to the team’s possible sale (U-T). I’ll use this as an excuse to remind folks that, as with the “Jake Peavy trade,” it isn’t news until something happens. When “possible” is removed from the preceding headline, then it becomes news.
• Moores seeking buyers for Padres (Padres.com). Barry Bloom injects a harsh dose of reality into the ownership story, offering this tidbit on John and Becky Moores:
  

  Together, they own 90 percent of the team, and because of community property laws in the state of California, Becky shares 50 percent of that asset. She must agree to any sale, and in the event that they can’t come to an agreement, the California state court presiding over the divorce would be the arbitrator.

  Cool, sounds like that should be a snap. Seriously, how hard can it be to get two people involved in divorce proceedings to agree on the sale of something valued in the hundreds of millions of dollars? [h/t Steve C]

• Notes from MLB’s Winter Meetings (U-T). More common sense from Krasvoic. Don’t expect the Padres to be sold anytime soon, which means… get used to the low payroll (or hope for a Christmas miracle).
• Padres Contract Projections. Speaking of payroll, Websoulsurfer is a newish Padres blog that has the Padres projected to spend about $41 million on the current roster in 2009.
• Peavy talks off, Padres CEO says (Padres.com). Speaking of the current roster, “hold” has always been an option with Peavy, although people seem to forget that. The Padres went out and tested the market, didn’t like what they saw, and then walked away. People do this all the time with houses, which depending on what part of the world you live in may or may not be more expensive than Peavy.
• Is Peavy a product of Petco Park? (ESPN). Speaking of Peavy, Rob Neyer chats with readers about how well the right-hander would do in less pitcher-friendly ballparks. Neyer’s explanation of why Peavy struggled in 2006 — “he was just terribly unlucky” — isn’t entirely satisfying. That may have been part of the problem, but anyone who watched Peavy pitch in ‘06 can tell you he had a heckuva time putting hitters away once he got ahead of them. Now, the root cause for that phenomenon remains unknown (I’ve heard his participation in the World Baseball Classic offered as an excuse, but I’m not sure how much stock I put into that). Anyway, we’ll never know until/unless Peavy actually leaves, but it’s fun to toss these things around in December. Beats watching football. [h/t Kevin]
• Padres’ Giles sued by ex-girlfriend (Padres.com). This doesn’t sound good:
  

  Padres’ outfielder Brian Giles is being sued by his former girlfriend as part of a lawsuit that alleges Giles battered her while she was pregnant, causing her to have a miscarriage.

  Without knowing the whole story, my first reaction is to wonder what happened to the criminal charges. Seems to me that if something like this actually happened, it would merit more than a lawsuit. But I’m admittedly ignorant of the way these things work, so who knows.

• Former Padres pitching coach dies (Padres.com). San Diego native Dave Smith, who served as the Padres pitching coach from 1999 to 2001, died Wednesday of a heart attack at age 53. My condolences go out to his family and friends.

Geez, I’m just spreading all kinds of holiday cheer today. Not that you want to take pleasure in the misery of others (unless they really deserve it, heh), but it does make you appreciate what you’ve got…

Tags: barry-bloom, Baseball, espn, hardball times, jake peavy, john moores, mlb, padres, payroll, petco park, rob neyer, san diego union tribune, sandy alderson, tom krasovic, world series, world-baseball-classic

Do you remember where you were when the Ben Davis Era (TM) ended? Neither do I. Let’s face it, that’s not the sort of thing one remembers in a life full of Things That Matter (TM).

(What’s up with all the TM’s, anyway? Or as I like to say, WUWATTA? (TM))

Quick refresher: The Padres took Davis with the second pick overall in 1995, ahead of Jose Cruz Jr., Kerry Wood, Todd Helton, Geoff Jenkins, Roy Halladay, and 1660 other guys. The track record for high-school catchers isn’t real good, and early in his career, Davis looked like he would join the ranks of those who had failed before him.

In his first full pro season, Davis hit .201/.264/.286 at Rancho Cucamonga. Granted, he was 19 years old, but… just yuck. In his 1997 Minor League Scouting Notebook, John Sickels had this to say about Davis:

He isn’t the second coming of Steve Chilcott quite yet, but Ben Davis is struggling, which shouldn’t really surprise anyone… He could still develop into a fine player. But it is less likely than it was a year ago, and if history is any guide, it wasn’t that likely to begin with.

Yep, a Chilcott mention. That is never a good thing… Sickels gave Davis a grade of C-minus, which is the lowest grade he’ll give a prospect.

But Davis improved with the bat over the next few years and, after brief stints here and there, stuck with the big club in 2001. That season he hit .239/.337/.357 in 138 games — not great, but acceptable for a 24-year-old at a demanding position. The future looked, if not bright, then… well, it had sort of a glow… let’s say it was like a cheap motel in a bad part of town; maybe some letters were missing.

Then on December 11, 2001 (it’s coming back to you now; perhaps you were at a holiday party with some co-workers — whatever happened to that guy who collected rubber bands?), Davis was traded to Seattle, where only the mighty Dan Wilson stood between him and greatness.

Dan Wilson. You remember him, right? He was basically the Deivi Cruz of catchers.

But a funny thing happened along the way. Davis never took hold of the starting job.

Who could have seen that coming? Certainly not me. I actually lamented the departure of Davis (and not just because of those cheesy commercials that showed him running along the beach followed by screaming girls — whatever, dude), figuring he’d turn into a solid contributor for the Mariners:

I still believe Davis is going to be a Mike Lieberthal type offensive player and one of the better defensive catchers in baseball. Wiki Gonzalez is a nice ballplayer, and it’s good to see him get a shot to start, but when all is said and done, he won’t be anywhere near what Davis will be.

First off, how sad is it to be arguing about Davis versus Gonzalez? It’s less interesting now than “paper or plastic” ever will be.

Second, guess which of those guys stuck around the big leagues longer? Hint: It’s not the first-round pick; it’s the guy taken in the minor-league phase of the Rule V draft. Because, you know, he just wasn’t good enough to stick with the Pirates.

On a more symmetrical note, it’s worth pointing out that both guys have a career OPS+ of 78. Why is that worth pointing out? Look, enough with the questions already.

You know what, this post is going nowhere. Hey, at least Ramon Vazquez came over in the deal. He gave us a couple good seasons before being flipped to Boston in the Dave Roberts deal and eventually, improbably, driving in seven runs in a game while playing for the Rangers.

Eh, this has no flow. I’m done. Write your own ending.

Tags: Baseball, deivi cruz, geoff jenkins, john sickels, jose cruz jr, kerry wood, mariners, mike lieberthal, padres, rancho cucamonga, roy halladay, steve chilcott, todd helton

Wait, do you smell something? No, not that; I think it’s links…

• Club and closer still need each other, but can they mend the fences? (U-T). It seems that Trevor Hoffman and his agents may have overplayed their position. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Hoffy back with the Padres in 2009. (Melvin Nieves at Sacrifice Bunt takes a closer look — pun somewhat intended — at the situation.)
• Radio hosts Bill Werndl, Joe Tutino are ‘let go’ by XX Sports 1090-AM (U-T). For those who still listen to talk radio, Philly Billy is gone. I never understood the appeal, but it sucks to see a guy lose his job.
• Top 50 Prospects for 2009. MLB.com unveils its top 50 prospects for 2009. The Padres’ Kyle Blanks checks in at #47. Nice to know folks are finally getting wise to the big kid from New Mexico.
• Morning Extras: Media Bailouts and Where Do You Get Your News? (The700Level.com). I’ve been thinking a lot about the sports media lately because one of the chapters in the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual focuses on them. From the article:
  

  Hits make advertisers happy because hits and views and uniques means that people are showing up. Advertisers like it when people show up.

  The author is talking about the Internet, but the concept is the same in radio and television. And it’s not just the sports media, of course. Where does news end and advertising begin? Good question, always worth asking… usually more than once.

• Reds acquire catcher Hernandez from Orioles for outfielder Freel (Sportsline). This happened a while ago, but I’ve been wondering — pretty much since they signed him — when the Orioles would get sick of paying Ramon Hernandez to be a shadow of his former self. Congrats to Peter Angelos and company for finding a way out of that horrible contract.

That’s all for now. The bird is the word…

Tags: advertisers, baltimore-orioles, Baseball, bill-werndl, mlb, new mexico, orioles, padres, peter angelos, prospects, radio hosts, ramon hernandez, reds, ryan-freel, sports, sports media, trevor hoffman

I’m pressed for time this morning, so we’ll be quick. Work and various other commitments kept me from writing at all during the week, so it was another 20-hour weekend. Really, with enough coffee, almost anything is possible.

Oh, and I’m sporting a sweet mullet these days. Think of a cross between Barry Gibb and Larry Fine. Did I just ruin your day with that visual? Good.

It’ll all come off once the book is done. That’s pretty good incentive to keep writing, methinks.

Where was I? Ah, yes, the book. I plowed through more of the prospects chapter. It’s approaching 40 pages and I haven’t even gotten to the pitchers yet. I’m hoping I’ll have more time to work on stuff during the week and maybe finish this chapter by the end of next weekend. That would be nice, because there’s a lot more to do in other areas.

What else? Speaking of prospects, Peter Friberg and Ben Davey (Padman from Friar Forecast) have published their top prospect lists over at MadFriars.com.

And I’ve penned a little something over at Baseball Digest Daily about former big-leaguer Cliff Johnson. There isn’t much of a Padres connection, except that the article was inspired by Russell Branyan. And Johnson was kind of like Gene Tenace, I guess, if you want to keep it old school.

Okay, I think that’s it. Why do I feel like I’m missing something? Oh well, I usually feel like that. The house hasn’t burned down, though, so I think we’re good.

For now…

Tags: barry gibb, cliff johnson, coffee, gene tenace, larry fine, mullet, padman, peter friberg, pitchers, prospect lists, prospects, russell branyan

The good folks at MadFriars.com have published my list of top 20 Padres prospects. As always, this list represents a snapshot in time. I’m expecting a few of these names to shift places by the time I send the book off to the printer in February.

That said, I feel pretty good about the list. The guys who are giving me the most trouble are Mat Latos and Jonathan Galvez (whose careers could go any number of directions at this point) and Will Venable (who refuses to stop impressing me despite what his statistics say).

I also love that Jaff Decker checks in at #4. Do you know how many years he would have been our best prospect? That’s no knock against Decker — I’m a big fan — but a little organizational depth never killed anyone…

Tags: Baseball, jaff decker, jonathan galvez, mat latos, padres, prospects, statistics, will venable