OBG08: Greg Maddux
Wed, Feb 6, 2008
by Geoff Young
Last week I promised you a book update, so here it is: I’m making a few final tweaks to the back cover and glossary. The foreword is being written by a super secret guest (feel free to guess, although I’ll neither confirm nor deny) and I expect to have that in my hands early next week.
From there, I’ll finalize the index, send everything to the printer, and order a proof so I can examine the physical product and make sure everything is okay. Assuming it is, then I just push a button and voila, the book will be on sale.
Brandon Rosage was good enough to have me as a guest on The Pitch, where he and I chatted about the Padres, the National League, and the book. Enjoy!
My target date is the week of February 25, which is a little later than I’d hoped but also earlier than last year. And I’m still holding out hope that I can get it ready before then. Either way, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual is almost here.
To the topic at hand, what I find remarkable about Greg Maddux is how easily he made the transition from dominant pitcher of his generation to solid #3 or #4 starter. He can’t work deep into games, but he’s in great shape and it goes without saying that he knows how to pitch.
How much longer can Maddux keep doing this? I’ll bet on at least one more year: 195 IP, 4.07 ERA.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
February 6, 2008 at 7:34 am
201 IP 4.23 ERA
Foreword by: Rob Neyer?
February 6, 2008 at 7:39 am
200 IP, 4.20 ERA, 110 K.
Dude might be the most consistent pitcher in the game.
February 6, 2008 at 8:00 am
Foreword by Keith Law?
190 IP, 12-10, 4.10 ERA
I think Maddux can keep this up indefinitely. He’ll continue to gradually lose velocity but his location and movement are still top notch.
Maddux has a legitimate shot at breaking into the top 5 in all time wins, he has 347, Pud Galvin is #5 with 364. If he can last 3 more years and average 12 wins a year he’ll match Christy Freaking Mathewson. That is just astounding to me; Maddux is up there with guys who made 50 starts a year and pitched in the dead ball era and he’s done it all with intelligence, location, movement and durability.
February 6, 2008 at 8:01 am
34 starts, 201 IP, 103 K, 27 BB, 4.21 ERA
Yawn…
February 6, 2008 at 8:05 am
One thing I forgot in my stat prediction. He will put up those numbers without throwing a single pitch faster than 87mph.
February 6, 2008 at 8:07 am
This is OT, but does anyone with business/family law have any idea how this will affect the team: http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....oores.html
As for Madddux: 184 IP, 4.02 ERA
I see lower IP with a better ERA as Bud Black better learns how to pull him out of games before disaster strikes.
February 6, 2008 at 8:08 am
6: Oh, and I’ll go with a co-foreword by Terrmel Sledge and Geoff Blum.
February 6, 2008 at 8:11 am
Re:3 Foreword by Keith Law?
LoL
February 6, 2008 at 8:14 am
#3, 5: Didi and I were at the Maddux CG last year, and if memory serves (a dicey proposition), he broke at least two bats on fastballs clocked at or below 84 mph.
#7: Bledge, I like it.
With six precincts reporting: 195 IP, 4.14 ERA, 107 K.
February 6, 2008 at 8:18 am
9: Bledge, hah. That’s perfect. Some wonderful onomatopoeia right there. Precisely how I feel about those two.
February 6, 2008 at 8:23 am
Sad to hear that about Moores, surprising as well. A lot of the business owners downtown swear by the guy, especially David the guy who owns the Popcorn store on 7th and Broadway, JM by all accounts is a good guy and everyone seems to like his wife as well.
On Maddux, count me as an optimist because of some improved infield defense by both Kouz and Iguchi(silent L can’t play D)
3.80 ERA 112 K’s 190IP
February 6, 2008 at 8:28 am
Not sure if anyone heard this, but Mike Sweeney took BP off of Bud Black at PETCO yesterday: http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
MLBTR is also reporting that the Padres have interest in Tony Clark. I still don’t see how either of these factor into the 08 team, and the FO certainly won’t sign both of them. I just don’t think that Clark or Sweeney have much to offer the team beyond a backup 1B or PH/DH.
February 6, 2008 at 8:29 am
Here’s my beef with this projection system. By the virtue of the system, each person makes an optimistic guess. If a player was hurt last year, we all predict some form of rebound. If the player had a good year, we all predict him to build on that success and play at roughly the same level or better. Nobody ever makes a prediction like: “80 IPs, 5.23 ERA; Maddux will blow out his rotator cuff in June, leading to retirement.” Those things happen, however, so on average, over the long term, our projections will almost certainly be overinflated.
In the first one of these things, I predicted a significant dropoff in production from AGon. Not necessarily because I actually think that it is likely, but rather because I saw that the 10 previous entries were ALL optimistic about AGon repeating last year’s numbers or exceeding them… Unfortunately, this doesn’t always happen. Sometimes, players just have bad years due to injury, personal problems, adjustments made by opposing pitchers, or simply the wrath of the baseball gods.
Now I know that we’re all Padres fans here and there’s nothing wrong with optimism in February. So I’ll get off my soapbox about the homeristic behavior of the baseball fan and fall in line:
Maddux: 188 IPs, 4.22 ERA, 13-8. the beat goes on
February 6, 2008 at 8:34 am
Re: 6 I’m not a fan of Moores as an owner but it is always sad to hear when someone is getting divorced after 44 years of marriage.
February 6, 2008 at 8:47 am
6: They downplay it in the article but it’s conceivable that this could lead to the sale of the Padres. Whether that’s a good or bad thing depends on your view of Moores I guess but my opinion is it’s more likely to be a negative. A new owner would likely want to get rid of KT and bring his own people in, possibly be more hands on and try to sign some big name free agents to ill advised contracts in order to win over the fans.
13: Yes, we are all generally optimistic. My likely candidates for poor seasons: Giles, Edmonds, Bell, Meredith, Hoffman. That’s not a prediction but I think they’re the most likely to have a decline. It’s not inconceivable that Edmonds could be totally washed up, Bell worked a lot of innings and Meredith has to be perfect with his location and he hasn’t been able to maintain that.
February 6, 2008 at 8:48 am
#13: Just so it’s clear going forward, what we’re looking for is each person’s best guess of how the player (as opposed to the projection) will do. If you are willing to stand behind a .255/.340/.440 line for Gonzalez in vacuo, and you truly believe that is what he’ll produce in 2008, then that is your best guess.
I probably should have made this explicit at the outset, but better late than never. Thanks for bringing it up…
February 6, 2008 at 9:03 am
re 15: Moores daughter already owns some fraction of the team and if I remember correctly Alderson actually owns somewhere around 5% at this point. Can anyone actually find out this information for sure? Geoff you own a couple % by this point, right?
A lot would depend on the new owner. If it were someone local like Jacobs bought the team I doubt we’d see much of a change. However if all of our dreams came true and someone like Mark Cuban got involved then it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that the FO would stay intact, but they would be given a much larger budget. Let’s remember this FO is viewed as doing more with less…not being incompetent.
Mark
February 6, 2008 at 9:09 am
15. Why would a new owner want to get rid of KT? You could certainly argue the other side and say that he would be pretty dangerous if he was given better financial resources.
February 6, 2008 at 9:24 am
15: I agree that this might be a bad omen for the team. Hopefully the FO would stay intact, but I could certainly seem some foolishness resulting such a move.
At the very least, this means that the team will likely never exceed its $75 million payroll. Personally, I don’t mind that since I think it’s a reality of our market size and situation. But for a lot of people who already thinks Moores is cheap, this will only further disillusion them.
February 6, 2008 at 9:32 am
Foreward by …
- George Will
- DePo
- Grady
- KT
- Bud
- Mr. Antonelli
- Poltz
… and I’m looking forward (pun intended) to the surprise!
February 6, 2008 at 10:21 am
194 IP, 4.08 ERA, 95 K’s.
I’m guessing Maddux’s ERA will improve because he only allowed one unearned run last year. He’ll probably pitch about the same this year, perhaps a little worse, but the ERA will look slightly prettier because some of the earned runs will become unearned.
February 6, 2008 at 10:23 am
Foreword: Gerry Coleman
Mad dog: 190 IP/4.15
13 wins
12: I like bringing in either Clark or preferably Mike Sweeney, as long as they are content in that role. A backup 1B may improve Adrian’s productivity, and a solid DH/PH is nothing to sneeze at. I’m not sold on Bryan Myrow for this role, let alone Robert Fick. A 1B/OF type might be more useful though.
February 6, 2008 at 10:41 am
22: I think Sweeney or Clark would have much more value if they could play the OF as well. It would be nice to have a legit PH, but I’m not sure if we should waste a roster spot on that.
On that end, roster management is going to be infinitely important this year. Based on my understanding, Prior has to be on the roster all year. So here’s my estimate for locks for the roster:
C: Bard
C: Barrett
1B: Gonzalez
2B: Iguchi
SS: Greene
3B: Kouzmanoff
LF: Hairston
CF: Edmonds
RF: Giles
OF: Gerut
IF: Robles
SP: Peavy
SP: Young
SP: Maddux
SP: Wolf
SP: Hensley
SP: Wolf
SP: Prior
RP: Bell
RP: Hoffman
RP: Meredith
RP: Thatcher
RP: Hampson
RP: Cameron
That’s 25 men right there. Unless they drop some pitchers, there is little to no room for extra bench guys. Does anyone else see this as a potential problem?
February 6, 2008 at 10:42 am
23: My bad, I’ve got Wolf in there twice. So I guess there is potentially room for either one more bench guy or one more RP.
February 6, 2008 at 10:47 am
I would much rather have Tony Clark than Mike Sweeney. If anything Tony could clue Chris Young in on whatever tell Tony sees in him. TC mashes CY and it would be nice to have that guy going up against the D-Backs. He would probably offer nothing in terms of left field but that’s fine by me.
February 6, 2008 at 10:50 am
#23: Aren’t Hensley and Prior supposed to start the year on the DL? Also, I’m thinking that DaVanon’s CF experience gives him the edge over Gerut. And I’m expecting a seven-man bullpen again, with Guevara probably getting that last spot.
We should run a contest again this year. Maybe once the projections are finished…
February 6, 2008 at 10:53 am
Maddux: 188 innings, 3.99 era, 99 k’s … I like Ben’s reasoning on the slightly lower ERA.
February 6, 2008 at 10:56 am
26: I totally forgot the DL and how that might affect the roster. That’s a great point.
I heard Bud Black briefly on the radio this morning and he was talking about a Hairston/Headley/Edmonds/Giles/Gerut OF. Black seems to be really high on both Headley and Gerut.
Any chance that Zarate kid turns out to be this year’s Heath Bell?
February 6, 2008 at 11:30 am
I don’t think the pitching staff is going to be hard to guess, well at least 10-11 spots seem to be set in stone:
The top 4 SP duh!:
Peavy
CY
Maddux
Wolf
The pen:
Hoffman
Meredith
Bell
Thatcher
Cameron
Hampson
I guess Hampson could get sent down if something strange really happened, but aside from settling on a 5th starter which I’d assume would be Hensley if healthy, if not Germano and a possible 7th reliever there isn’t any wiggle room.
February 6, 2008 at 11:40 am
Cameron can be sent down this year as well. I dont think his spot is set in stone, maybe soapstone but not granite.
February 6, 2008 at 11:41 am
I think the bullpen and bench jobs will merit the most attention this spring. As for the bullpen, don’t forget about the Rule 5 guys Guevara and Gardner. I can’t see how both make it, but maybe Guevara sticks.
February 6, 2008 at 12:06 pm
BTW, I’m loving the Foreword author guesses. Some great ideas for next year’s book.
February 6, 2008 at 12:14 pm
180 IP, 3.89 ERA, 123 K
re: Moores divorces, it is sad and I wish them the best.
However, wouldn’t it be a hoot if the Padres are now owned by two parties (85%) and the left side and right side of the fields are paid by different owners. AGon getting his check signed by JM and Kouz getting his by RM. I know they probably don’t sign those checks personally. Wait, do the Padres use direct deposit?
February 6, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Foreword by …
- Peter Gammon,
- George Will, or
- Barack Obama.
February 6, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Forward by … Doug Mirabelli?
February 6, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Forward by: Skip Spence?
have any of us guessed it yet GY you don’t have to tell us who guessed it but just that persons name has been mentioned?
February 6, 2008 at 12:33 pm
#36: No, I can’t reveal anything just yet. I will only say that you all are keeping me very entertained!
My current faves are Bud Selig and Doug Mirabelli.
February 6, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Hey GY are you going to do a pre-order for the book so it will ship the day its ready?
February 6, 2008 at 1:10 pm
38 … I’d preorder … hint … hint
February 6, 2008 at 1:26 pm
I’d pre-order too.
February 6, 2008 at 2:47 pm
#38-40: Okay, it sounds like this needs to happen. Let me investigate our options and get back to you.
Oh, and thanks!
February 6, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Dude. You mentioned Bip on The Pitch. You rock.
I will continue on my quest to recognize arguably the most under-rated Padre of all time…
-m.
February 6, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Greg Maddux…180 IP, 13-10, 4.21 w/ 117 k’s.
February 6, 2008 at 4:21 pm
With 13 precincts reporting: 191 IP, 4.09 ERA, 108 K.
February 6, 2008 at 4:57 pm
190 IP, 4.20 ERA, 100 K
February 6, 2008 at 5:51 pm
205 IP 4.00 ERA Mad Dog is good for 200+ every year.
GY I was at that CG last year too vs the Reds. He did break 2 bats. Fricken awesome.
February 6, 2008 at 5:56 pm
OT: Anyone know when tickets for the “freeway series” between the Pads and the Angels go on sale. Living in Orange County, it would b awesome to see the Pads at Angel stadium. It would save me maybe one trip to Petco.
February 6, 2008 at 5:59 pm
Maybe we should do a DS meetup at one of the angels games.
February 6, 2008 at 6:46 pm
180 IP 4.29 era
David Wells wrote the forward. he has a book out. so he jumped at the chance
February 6, 2008 at 7:01 pm
re 47: Do you want to buy mine? LLB Row 8…nice 4 seat row, right on the aisle…..good view of Headley and whoever the Angels happen to be running out in LF that night. Ok so yeah I don’t really want to see a spring training game….and talking the wife into that one won’t be easy either
Email me: Mark@Asefunding.com
February 6, 2008 at 10:06 pm
OT … madfriars have the Padres minor league spring training schedule up …
http://padres.scout.com/2/726663.html
… minor league games start Friday, March 14.
February 6, 2008 at 10:14 pm
OT … a commenter over at madfriars noticed this …
http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_8179057
… which says …
The Rockies were one of 10 teams to attend the recent workout for left-handed Japanese reliever Yukinaga Maeda. But agent Joe Sambito said Tuesday that the Rockies “don’t appear interested.” Texas and San Diego were among those expressing some interest.
February 6, 2008 at 11:11 pm
Nice read:
http://tinyurl.com/2fv8ns
February 7, 2008 at 3:39 am
185 IP, 3.85 ERA, 115 K
February 7, 2008 at 9:43 am
53 … yup, that is a good read … the decline of CGs is well documented … not only did Jake not have any CGs, he didn’t even ever finish the 8th inning … and only pitched into the 8th inning 1 time …
http://www.baseball-reference......01&t=p
… I don’t know if that’s a sign of something to worry about … or just a sign of the times … I can’t help but worry …