OBG08: Chris Young
Tue, Feb 5, 2008
by Geoff Young
I was flipping through The 1996 Big Bad Baseball Annual
Occasionally there is a scraggy looking, doubled-over raggedy man, with a heavily weathered face and the remnants of a once-toothy grin flashing in a skeletal grimace, who can be seen wandering the aisles in the cheap seats at Jack Murphy Stadium. He stumbles from section to section, doing the Wave when no one else is, mooching quarters from the unsuspecting fans; after he’s panhandled enough for a beer or two, he starts leering at the teenaged girls, flapping his arms in some idiosyncratic display ritual that only gets him shunned, cursed at, spat on, or escorted from the park by a security guard.
. . .
Once when he was bodily restrained and being hustled from Aisle Zero (the Padres’ equivalent of Lot 49), he reportedly began screaming “I am the messenger from Zohar, the Molten Light in the Fire of Darkness! I am the freakin’ ghost of Ray Kroc come to make you pay for your sins! I am the Candelabrum of Corruption and stupid roster moves! Your children will turn to dust before your eyes!!”
Yeah, I guess that sort of behavior just might get you kicked out of a ballpark.
The other thing that caught my eye, which has nothing to do with Moby Grape or Thomas Pynchon, were the projections for Ken Caminiti and Steve Finley. If you want a clue as to why the Padres did so well in ‘96, here’s a good place to start:
| Proj | Act | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BA | OBP | SLG | BA | OBP | SLG | |
| Caminiti | .261 | .334 | .403 | .326 | .408 | .621 |
| Finley | .272 | .326 | .376 | .298 | .354 | .541 |
First, be sure to thank Randy Smith for the trade that brought these cats to San Diego. Second, if we want to force some kind of connection between this and the topic at hand, it might be that projecting player performance is an inexact science at best. With that in mind, I’ll guess that Chris Young will return to pre-injury form but still have trouble working deep into games: 175 IP, 2.74 ERA.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
February 5, 2008 at 7:47 am
170 IP 3.10 ERA one trip to the DL
February 5, 2008 at 8:16 am
Mark me down as outright bullish on CY this year, I think being in San Diego full time will work for him:
200IP 2.95 ERA
Also, I think BB let’s the starters go slightly deeper into games this year for a couple of reasons:
-Hoffman isn’t the same guy anymore and Bell was overworked last season
-They should have 5 solid starters, even if Wolf/Prior only give them 30 starts between them. Pecota and others are very high on Germano this year(4.00 ERA).
Given those circumstances it’s hard to warrant ever skipping the 5th starter and it seems like the off days are spread out better this season.
February 5, 2008 at 8:25 am
Re: 2 the one nice thing is that the Pads have a ton of BP depth, Cameron will prob be used a little more this year, Meredith is still a factor, Thatcher has come on strong, Rusch may contribute if he can bounce back I dont think they need to over work any starters this year.
February 5, 2008 at 8:30 am
With a decided lack of durability in his career, an unusually low HR rate last year one would be inclined to be a little pessimistic about his projected stats this year. It is, however, February and we’re in a good mood this morning, so here’s a prediction based on a full season’s numbers:
34 starts, 190 IP, 175 K, 60 BB, 3.44 ERA
Even a skeptic can dream big…
February 5, 2008 at 8:34 am
195 IP, 189 K, 3.14 ERA
I think CY gets a couple complete games but misses a few starts due to back soreness. I don’t see him hitting the DL for an extended stay, rather just a start here and there.
February 5, 2008 at 8:38 am
Wait, so the old scraggly dude was Skip Spence? I think I saw that guy.
CY: 180 IP, 2.95 ERA,
15 wins.
The more innings pitched, the lower the era.
February 5, 2008 at 8:44 am
160 IP, 3.50 ERA, 140 K.
Sorry guys, I can’t see him staying healthy.
February 5, 2008 at 8:47 am
Hmmm … the Skip Spence page at Wikipedia mentions Tom Waits (see link above) … Hmmm …
February 5, 2008 at 8:51 am
#6: That is the rumor, anyway.
With seven precincts reporting: 181 IP, 3.12 ERA, 168 K.
February 5, 2008 at 10:20 am
188 IPs, 3.33 ERA, 166 K. Optimism I guess. I see no reason why he shouldn’t stay healthy, but he’ll still have a hard time going late into games.
February 5, 2008 at 11:11 am
[i]Hmmm … the Skip Spence page at Wikipedia mentions Tom Waits (see link above) … Hmmm …[/i]
They don’t sound anything alike, if that’s what you’re wondering. Spence has a sort of meandering, mumbly style that probably isn’t for everyone. If you like solo Syd Barrett stuff, or quiet folky stuff like Nick Drake or Jackson C. Frank, you might enjoy Spence.
February 5, 2008 at 11:13 am
Young: 165 IP, 3.61 era, 150 k’s … average on balls in play and hr/fb go up a bit. Still a solid pitcher, of course.
February 5, 2008 at 11:46 am
175 IP 3.20 ERA 160K’s
February 5, 2008 at 11:47 am
oh and we claimed the former D-backs prospect Enrique Gonzalez off waivers from the Nationals.
http://rotoworld.com/content/p.....mp;id=4387
February 5, 2008 at 11:56 am
#14: Ordinarily I’d advise against picking up guys off waivers from the Nats, but the way our pitching staff is built, we can use as much depth as possible.
With 11 precincts reporting: 181 IP, 3.17 ERA, 171 K.
February 5, 2008 at 12:23 pm
I love Chris Young. But I think that the trade that brought him to us has proved to such an overwhelming fleecing that we’re due for some Karmic retribution. How’s that for reasoned analysis?
Optimistic: pretty much in line with the averages here. If he hit’s GY’s tally in post 15, I’d be overjoyed.
Pessimistic, and, ultimately, what I have that funny-feeling-in-my-stomach is going to be closer to the truth: 120 IP, 3.40 ERA, 115 Ks, with 2-3 shortish visits to the DL for nagging injuries.
So, to make it easier on Geoff, go with the second one. It isn’t horrible, but I think we’re due for some bad luck. I hope I’m proven wrong, but I just have the bad feeling.
February 5, 2008 at 12:57 pm
I’m optimistic Young’s hit reduction on balls in play magic continues, but I think his HR/FB rate goes up to more normal levels this year. Other than that, he pitches like he did in the first half of last year, with some minor injuries mixed in. 183 IP, 3.33 ERA, 174 K’s.
February 5, 2008 at 2:01 pm
I’m going optimistic again. CY will stay relatively healthy and pitch the whole year like he did in the first half. 32 starts, 17-5, 2.40 ERA, 190 IP, 200 Ks against 170 hits. I also predict his first no hitter.
I feel like the increased competition in the division will spur the Padres to higher levels and guys like Jake and CY are going to lead by example this year.
February 5, 2008 at 2:06 pm
” I also predict his first no hitter.”
and the Padres for that matter!
February 5, 2008 at 2:40 pm
18 & 19: CY, like Cain, seems destined to throw a no-hitter at some point. His stuff is just deceptive enough that people rarely square up the ball against him. I certainly look forward to celebrating the Padres’ first no-hitter sometime soon.
February 5, 2008 at 3:25 pm
192 IP, 169 K, 3.54 ERA, and gets into another fight with another Cubs.
Probably no no hitter but he’ll be mostly healthy all season with a couple skip starts still averaging too many P/PA.
February 5, 2008 at 3:59 pm
OT … it’s nice to not have any Padres on this BP STAT OF THE DAY
Bottom 5 2007 NL Third Basemen, by VORP
Player, Team, EqA, VORP
Alberto Callaspo, ARI, .178, -10.8
Abraham Nunez, PHI, .214, -9.4
Jose Castillo, PIT, .203, -8.1
Craig Counsell, MIL, .228, -7.3
Wes Helms, PHI, .228, -5.1
February 5, 2008 at 4:53 pm
I’m on the latest episode of The Pitch. Mostly review material for folks here.
February 5, 2008 at 7:53 pm
“Occasionally there is a scraggy looking, doubled-over raggedy man…”
I’m famous!
February 5, 2008 at 9:42 pm
215 IP/ 210 K/ 3.05 ERA
His back stays more or less intact, and he proves himself to be the staff horse while Peavy has period aches and pains. CY wins 18, tosses the franchise’s first no-hitter, and finishes, along with Jake, in the top 5 in the Cy Young voting.
Maybe (certainly?) I’m overly optimistic, but you all know you’re praying I’m right.
Regarding Thomas Pynchon, I loved “Crying of Lot 49,” but I think “Gravity’s Rainbow” is quite possibly the greatest novel ever written. REALLY tough read, though.
February 5, 2008 at 11:28 pm
160 IP, 4.15 ERA I think he deception is wearing off and his health wont be great. His fastball is straight and doesnt have much speed. Hitters are starting to learn how to hit him. He will still be a decent pitcher, just no way he will ever return to his 2006 form and deception.
February 6, 2008 at 3:42 am
185 IP 3.10 ERA
February 6, 2008 at 6:47 am
#25: Thanks for the Pynchon tip. I’ve only read “Crying of Lot 49,” which I loved. I’ll add “Gravity’s Rainbow” to my ever-expanding list.
With 17 precincts reporting: 179 IP, 3.23 ERA, 168 K.