The Year Jake Peavy Turned Hitters into Matt Walbeck

Jake PeavyI recently picked up the Bill James Gold Mine 2008. There’s tons of great stuff in here, as you’d expect, but two items in particular have captured my imagination (so far): the “record of opposing batters” James presents for certain pitchers, and the “comps” he offers of team batting records to individual career batting records (e.g., the Padres hit like Bobby Bonilla in wins last season and like Norm Sherry in losses).

Hey, why not mash ‘em up and see what happens? Well, that’s just what I’ve done. I examined Jake Peavy‘s year-by-year “record of opposing batters” along with the names of some hitters who had similar career lines. In each case, I searched for hitters who:

  • were active between 1961 and 2007;
  • had at least 3000 plate appearances (2000 for the ’05 season, because otherwise we’d have no comps);
  • had both OBP and SLG within .010 of Peavy’s.

I then ordered each resulting set a) by batting average and b) by OPS+. The goal was to come up with a similar looking traditional line that also translated reasonably well when adjusted for era, parks, etc. Sometimes I had to make concessions (i.e., choose greater accuracy in terms of BA/OBP/SLG or in terms of OPS+). In those cases, I went with my gut because an exercise like this doesn’t demand precision.

What we’re really going for is, “In 2002, Peavy made opponents look kind of like Steve Finley, while in 2007 he made them look kind of like Matt Walbeck.” We’re trying to get a general feel for the type of hitter Peavy turned guys into for each season.

Jake Peavy, Record of Opposing Batters
Year PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ Batting Comps
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
2002 430 .274 .334 .432 104 Rich Aurilia, Bret Boone, Steve Finley
2003 827 .238 .318 .422 96 Scott Brosius, Mike Macfarlane
2004 694 .236 .305 .359 75 Joe Girardi, Tom Pagnozzi
2005 812 .217 .271 .363 69 Ken Reitz, John Shelby
2006 846 .242 .303 .412 85 Corey Patterson, Gerald Williams
2007 898 .208 .272 .312 55 Dave McKay, Matt Walbeck
Career 4507 .232 .297 .379 n/a Kevin Elster, Ron Karkovice

Karkovice falls just short of our 3000 PA threshold, but whatever. The point, again, is to get a general sense of things. Oh yeah, and to have fun. :-)

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My Padres season preview is up at Hardball Times. No surprises if you’ve been following along here for any amount of time.
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Padres and Royals tonight on Channel 4SD. First pitch at 7:05 p.m. PT; we’ll have the IGD running about an hour before then.

Q&A with Tom Krasovic

Tom Krasovic has been covering the Padres for the San Diego Union-Tribune since 1994. Recently he took time out of his busy schedule to discuss baseball, the beat, and life. We exchanged emails over the course of several days, and although it’s difficult to convey certain nuances over the ‘net, Krasovic’s passion for the game quickly became evident.

Ducksnorts: Who were your favorite baseball players when you were growing up?

Krasovic: Immortal Angels such as Tom Satriano, Roger Repoz and Alex Johnson, just because the California Angels were my team as a young boy. Then came the 1970s and a move to southern Ohio so I tracked [Joe] Morgan, [Johnny] Bench, [Pete] Rose, [Tony] Perez, [George] Foster, [Dave] Concepcion, [Cesar] Geronimo. Rooting for the Angels still came naturally so I followed [Frank] Tanana, [Nolan] Ryan, [Don] Baylor, Disco Dan Ford and those guys. I also liked a lot of other players — [Tom] Seaver, [Cesar] Cedeno, [Ron] Guidry, [Lou] Piniella, [Willie] Stargell. And, of course, Jerry Turner, who showed up in every baseball card pack I got. The 1970s were great. Here’s another one: Joe Sambito. Amazingly smooth.

Ducksnorts: Who or what inspired you to pursue a career in sports journalism?

Krasovic: Unemployment. My internship as a new reporter with the Riverside Press Enterprise had ended. At the time, my days were spent in hellaciously hot trenches in Moreno Valley, doing grunt work for a roommate who was in the home construction business. I had sent resumes to every newspaper in California. When the Camarillo Daily News offered me a $20,000 salary to join its two-person sports department, it wasn’t a difficult decision.

Ducksnorts: Before covering the Padres, you wrote about the aerospace industry, football, and soccer, among other things. How did those experiences help prepare you to write about baseball?

Krasovic: Working for Aviation Week and Space Technology as a copy editor exposed me to some very bright people and taught me that large segments of the media aren’t so good at covering technical subjects. My ability to meet deadline improved as I covered high school sports, the Sockers, SDSU football and the NCAA basketball tournament. As a Chargers beat writer, I became more comfortable with writing about professional athletes and team officials who may not like what you report. Being a general news reporter gave greater meaning to the old newsroom expression, “There is no such thing as a boring story, only a boring reporter.”

Ducksnorts: You’ve been known to quote statistics advanced by Baseball Prospectus and similar outfits. To what degree does sabermetrics inform your thinking and writing?

Krasovic: When I got the Padres beat, the club’s director of baseball operations was Eddie Epstein, who brought a sophisticated statistical perspective to player evaluation. He wasn’t always right, of course, but he could always back up what he said, and he tended to be right more than he was wrong. Epstein had an air of discovery about him. He was like a treasure hunter who had tapped into reliable methods to find sunken ships or oil reserves. He had been empowered by Larry Lucchino, the club’s CEO, so he deserved to be taken seriously as a significant figure within the organization, and that’s how I treated him. I quoted him several times, and he unquestionably added depth to my reporting; years later, Kevin Towers said Epstein had furthered his evolution as a general manager. Fortunately for me, Epstein was succeeded by Theo Epstein, who also could take arcane statistical material and explain how it applied to player evaluation. He became a key advisor to Towers, and it behooved me to help our readers understand the perspectives he provided. Had I been covering the Pirates, I probably would have been less inclined quote some of the statistics advanced by Baseball Prospectus — whose web site was recommended by Theo Epstein. That would have been my loss.

Ducksnorts: Bob Costas recently took some heat for comments he made regarding bloggers and blogging. At the same time, many mainstream outlets (including the U-T) are adopting blogs as a part of their overall strategy. How do you see the roles of traditional news reporter and blogger evolving in the future?

Krasovic: My guess is that we’ll err on the conservative side. Some newspaper writers use a blog as a launching point for their opinions on a wide variety of topics, including the team they cover. We’ll mostly stick to the Padres and baseball, and keep most of the commentary as fact-driven as possible. The other thing we’re figuring out is, how often should we blog? Blogging takes away from our reporting. It’s possible to serve both masters, but that’s an evolving process for us.

Ducksnorts: In your years covering baseball, what’s the strangest thing you’ve seen happen in a game?

Krasovic: The Braves’ inside-the-park home run against the Padres, circa 1997, comes to mind. The ball rolled into a booth behind the home bullpen at Qualcomm Stadium. Greg Vaughn mistakenly called for time instead of getting the ball. By the time he retrieved the ball, it was too late. Just a strange play, maybe not the strangest, but that one comes to mind. Here’s another one: Watching Braves right fielder Jermaine Dye run into and around umpire Tim Welke during the 1996 World Series. When that play happened, you sensed that the World Series had just turned toward the Yankees. Welke is a large man who badly misjudged a foul popup. Dye couldn’t get around him. It a was goofy play, but I suppose that I remember it vividly because it was integral to the outcome of that World Series. Bobby Cox was furious even after the game. I think he’s still angry about it.

Ducksnorts: Kevin Towers’ track record in terms of trades is impressive. Comment a little on the way he operates.

Krasovic: I quoted Billy Beane as saying that Towers is extremely likeable, more likeable than the typical GM. I think that’s part of his success. It’s a small part of it, but I believe that he has a knack for making fellow GMs comfortable when they are dealing with him. That’s a gift. Basically, a lot of these guys don’t trust each other. To hear Beane and a few other GMs, Towers makes you like him, even trust him. He’s also an information hound. In that regard, it helps that he’s a former ballplayer. He is very comfortable at working a clubhouse and the scouting section behind home plate. He talks to a lot of people — ballplayers, scouts, executives, agents, clubhouse staff, trainers, sportswriters, broadcasters. He also has empowered his statistical people. He sees them as an asset, not a threat. Two of his closest advisers are longtime scouts Ken Bracey and Bill Bryk, and I know Towers considers them invaluable. The bottom line is that when Towers makes a trade, he tends to be very informed.

Ducksnorts: What are your expectations for the Padres and the NL West in 2008?

Krasovic: Barring catastrophic injuries, it should be more of the same for the Padres — a fifth consecutive winning season and playoff contention deep into the season. They’ll probably give up fewer runs than any team in the NL. They’ll probably rank among the NL’s top half in road scoring. And it wouldn’t surprise me if they outhomered visiting teams by a good margin, which seems to be part of the [Padres CEO Sandy] Alderson formula. What will that all add up to? That’s where it gets interesting. It may add up to first place, second, third or fourth. It’s that kind of division. I kind of feel for Giants fans. Sure, they had a nice run from 1997 to 2004, but you’d like to think that if you’re going to lose 90-100 games, you’d get to see some exciting young players in the everyday lineup. I doubt that will be the case.

Ducksnorts: Who among current Padres do you think has a chance to surprise people this year?

Krasovic: Last summer, the White Sox were willing to give away Tadahito Iguchi, and even when the Phillies were desperate for a second baseman after Chase Utley went down, the White Sox didn’t hold them up — they sent Iguchi to them for a Single-A pitcher who is a borderline prospect. Iguchi had some problems with a finger injury early last year, and the White Sox were looking to save money. He’s a solid player, better than his stats of last summer would indicate.

Ducksnorts: What big-league ballpark, other than Petco Park, is your favorite to visit?

Krasovic: Wrigley Field if the weather isn’t brutal. Otherwise, San Francisco’s ballpark. If you don’t get decapitated by a foul ball, the view from the pressbox there is as good as it gets.

Thanks again to Mr. Krasovic for taking time out of his busy schedule to join us here and provide some insight into the 2008 Padres and what it’s like covering the club. Be sure to check out his work at the U-T and his blog throughout the season.

Administrivia: Rules of Conduct

With Opening Day just around the corner, it’s probably time to point folks to the Ducksnorts Comments Policy. Discussion is encouraged around these parts, so if you’d like to participate, please take a moment to familiarize yourself with our policy.

Here is the quick-and-dirty version:

  • Ducksnorts is a daily column, not a message board. It’s more like my house than a railway station.
  • Attack positions, not people.
  • Comments should advance the discussion in some way.
  • Any comment may be deleted at any time; any individual may be banned from commenting. (Hint: These almost never happen.)
  • Off-topic comments are welcome within reason.
  • No profanity.
  • If you are selling or promoting something, please clear it with me first.
  • Comments that contain multiple outbound links will be placed in the moderation queue before being published. (This is an anti-spam measure.)
  • Respect copyright laws. Don’t reproduce entire articles (or even large chunks); instead, provide only brief excerpts and/or a link that we can follow.

Again, this is a very condensed version. Be sure to read and understand the entire Ducksnorts Comments Policy. Note also that this policy isn’t open to debate. If you have questions or concerns, please contact me directly and we’ll talk.

Thanks, and Happy Easter!

OT: Go Toreros!

I generally don’t follow college hoops. Then again, my alma mater generally doesn’t upset UConn in the NCAA tourney. Congrats and good luck against Western Kentucky!

Friday Links (21 Mar 08)

Reminder to folks here in San Diego: I’ll be on “SportsWrap” this Sunday evening at 11:35 p.m. PT. Tune to NBC 7/39 for your chance to see a real-live baseball dork on television.

To the links…

  • Bill Center at the U-T takes a look at roster possibilities. According to this, Glendon Rusch will be in the bullpen and Wil Ledezma (who is out of options) likely will be on the staff in some capacity. In related news, Jim Edmonds is optimistic hopeful he’ll be ready for Opening Day.
  • Tom Krasovic at the U-T offers encouraging news on rehabbing pitchers Mark Prior and Clay Hensley (h/t LynchMob):

    The surgeon’s work is enabling Prior to throw with proper form, to repeat the same release point that he had before injuries led to compensation issues and degraded his silky delivery.

    He said he is able to get the extension and angle needed to hit the low-outside portion of the strike zone, or just wide of it. Last spring training, Prior said, he wasn’t able to smoothly get that done. “I’d come around the ball,” he said, tilting his right hand inward.

    Proof is in the proverbial pudding (is that like tapioca?), but this at least sounds promising.

  • I loved watching the games in China, but I’m kinda bummed we didn’t get to see Jet Li throw out the ceremonial first pitch before Game 2.
  • We also didn’t get to see the cheerleaders.
  • There are a couple of new Padres blogs out there worth visiting. Planet Padres has a bunch of cool photos from Peoria (h/t LynchMob), while the Swinging Friar interviews Padres.com beat writer Corey Brock. Stop by and say hey, if you haven’t already.
  • Also, FriarBall has moved. These will all be updated at PadreBlogs.com within the next day or two.
  • Keeping with this theme, MB of Friar Forecast fame has joined San Diego Spotlight, and his first post there is a dandy. Among other things, we learn that Greg Maddux throws a much higher percentage of fastballs than Jake Peavy does.
  • Mark Thoma at the Riverside Press-Enterprise has written a nice article on Chase Headley (h/t Pat). Among other things, Headley talks about his approach at the plate:

    …the biggest thing is learning what pitch you can drive rather than going up there and hitting a pitch that you can put in play but not hit for power. Strikeouts are a product of seeing a lot of pitches.

  • Calling my own number, I’ve penned a Padres preview over at Razzball. It has a fantasy slant and is mostly review material for readers o’ the ‘snort.
  • Dirk Hayhurst’s latest “Non-Prospect Diary” is up at Baseball America. This time he talks about winning a championship at Double-A San Antonio last season:

    I know it takes more then one person to play this sport. I know there are nine positions on a baseball field. But the concept of team is more then the numbers required to fill locations. I’d be a fool to tell you money doesn’t talk in this world of ours, and be lying if I said I don’t want to beat all comers to a spot in the bigs. Yet, in my heart, I still believe this is a team game. Not because of what old coaches preach, what numbers say, or what Disney movies evoke. I believe this is a team game because I know what its like to lose with a team, and win with one . . .

    Maybe he’ll win with the Padres one day.

  • Rich at Baseball Analysts examines pitchers (starters | relievers) based on their strikeout and groundball rates (h/t Jim Parish). As if we needed further evidence that Cla Meredith is superfreaky, yow…
  • My esteemed colleague Rob McQuown ranks prospects at Baseball Digest Daily (h/t Pat). Among hitters, Chase Headley checks in at #25, Kyle Blanks at #29, and Matt Antonelli at #34. Will Inman is #14 among pitchers, which may come as a bit of a shock to some folks (okay, me).
  • Brandon Isleib at Hardball Times examines Bert Blyleven’s career, specifically how much fan (and media) exposure he received during his playing days. In light of our recent discussion on marquee players, I found this an interesting line of inquiry. As Yogi Berra might say, It’s hard to be famous if nobody knows who you are.
  • I would kill to have a business like MLB. No matter how much you screw things up, people keep coming back for more (h/t LynchMob). Really, where’s the incentive to improve the product?

That otter do it. Have a happy Friday, and be excellent…

Everybody Loves Tadahito

Tadahito IguchiSays here we’ve been “dot-com” for 6 years now. Cool.

Anyway, I’m working on an interview with Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune (it’ll run on Monday), and one topic we discussed was potential surprises among Padres for 2008. The name that came up was new second baseman Tadahito Iguchi:

Iguchi had some problems with a finger injury early last year, and the White Sox were looking to save money. He’s a solid player, better than his stats of last summer would indicate.

When Lance and I visited Peoria a couple weeks ago, Iguchi kind of took us by surprise as well. Although he’s a compact guy, as I’ve mentioned previously, he really can drive the ball out to left and left-center. We’ll see how much of that is an artifact of the Arizona spring air, but after seeing Iguchi in person and talking to some folks, I’m starting to have a good feeling — in my usual guardedly optimistic way — about him.

The U-T, meanwhile, has a couple articles up about Iguchi. One talks about Iguchi’s childhood dreams to play in the North American big leagues, while the other focuses on his relationship with translator David Yamamoto.

Iguchi talks about coming to San Diego:

For me, it was very important to play in a city that would be right for my family. (Former Padre Akinori) Otsuka said San Diego is a good place.

My wife (Asumi) and daughter (Rio) moved into a home in San Diego in mid-February. My daughter is already in school. My family loves it there.

He also touches on the difference between spring training in Japan and on this side of the pond:

In Japan, spring is a military-style camp. It is a lot longer and every team has a goal . . . find a sense of unity. The whole team goes for early-morning walks and there are nightly meetings. The first two or three weeks, you work only on fundamentals.

The advantage of the American camps is that every facility has a lot of fields. Some players can be hitting while others are fielding. In Japan, there was only one field for each club.

Guess we’ll soon find out how justified our optimism is…

Marquee Is in the Eye of the Beholder

We already know that the Padres knocked more road extra-base hits than any other team in MLB in 2007 (those of you interested in helping me keep a roof over my head will also find this information on page 37 of the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual). The other day, in our spirited discussion of the club’s declining attendance, we noted the lack of marquee players as one possible factor keeping San Diegans from embracing the Padres as much as they might.

We also noted that if Adrian Gonzalez played his home games in a more forgiving environment, he likely would be recognized as such a marquee player. With that lengthy prelude out of the way, here are the top 10 individual road slugging percentages in the National League in 2007 (minimum 250 PA):

  1. Chipper Jones, Braves, .643
  2. Albert Pujols, Cardinals, .642
  3. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs, .636
  4. Ryan Braun, Brewers, .610
  5. Ryan Howard, Phillies, .588
  6. Prince Fielder, Brewers, .572
  7. Carlos Beltran, Mets, .571
  8. Lance Berkman, Astros, .570
  9. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres, .570
  10. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins, .548

One-year wonder? Not really. Here are the top 10 in the NL for 2006-2007 (minimum 500 PA):

  1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals, .647
  2. Chipper Jones, Braves, .632
  3. Ryan Howard, Phillies, .626
  4. Carlos Beltran, Mets, .625
  5. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs, .594
  6. Lance Berkman, Astros, .575
  7. Carlos Delgado, Mets, .562
  8. Prince Fielder, Brewers, .551
  9. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres, .550
  10. Miguel Cabrera, Marlins, .526

Nine of these guys get a lot of play in the national media. Can you find the one who doesn’t?

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Programming note: I’ll be appearing on “SportsWrap” on Sunday, March 23, to talk about the Padres. Those of you here in San Diego can tune to Channel 7/39 at 11:35 p.m. PT to catch all the madness and mayhem. Big thanks to Derek Togerson and company for having me on the show!

Random Roster Notes

Brian Giles saw his first action this spring on Monday. He went 0-for-2 against the Diamondbacks in Tucscon, but who cares? The important thing is, he was in the lineup and able to play right field. Quoth Giles:

This was a pretty good test. I know it was only three innings, but the conditions weren’t that good out there. It’s a little wet in the outfield, and it’s windy and cold.

Meanwhile, Rule V draftee Callix Crabbe is pushing hard to make the Padres’ Opening Day roster. Batting eighth and starting at third base on Monday, Crabbe singled twice and doubled in three trips to the plate. He’s hitting .415 this spring, which doesn’t tell us as much as his career .369 OBP in the minors but which probably helps his chances.

And in the not-so-good-news department, relievers Kevin Cameron and Justin Hampson are dinged up a bit. Cameron broke his left thumb when a drive off the bat of Paul McAnulty hit him during batting practice. Hampson’s shoulder is bothering him. Both pitchers did a nice job for the Padres as rookies in ’07, working mostly in low-leverage situations. It’s not clear when they’ll return.

Finally, Shawn Estes continues to vie for the #5 rotation spot. He’s not pitching well at all, which isn’t really news. With each passing day, 1997 gets further and further away. Same can be said of everything in the past, I suppose.

That’s all for now; more as it happens. Go Padres!

Why Can’t the Padres Capture Our Imagination (and Money)?

I’m working on my Padres preview for Hardball Times, and one question that confounds me is this: Why won’t San Diego get behind the Padres? I don’t have an answer, but I’d love to hear some theories.

While you’re thinking about that, here’s a nice table for your viewing pleasure:

Padres Winning Percentage and Home Attendance, 2004 – 2007
Year W-L Pct Att/G
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
2004 87-75 .537 37,244
2005 82-80 .506 35,429
2006 88-74 .543 32,837
2007 89-74 .546 34,445

This marks the first time the Padres have enjoyed more than two consecutive winning seasons. They also reached the playoffs two straight years (and came within one strike of making it three straight) for the first time in franchise history.

I get that it’s popular to bash the club for not being aggressive in the free-agent market (only somewhat warranted, IMO, given the nature of said market) or the amateur draft (a problem that I agree needs to be addressed), but we literally are looking at unprecedented success from this organization and yet, attendance has fallen by 7.5% since the Padres moved downtown.

To be fair, the Padres saw tremendous growth on moving into Petco Park, but still. Here’s that table again, with their final year at Qualcomm thrown in for good measure:

Padres Winning Percentage and Home Attendance, 2003 – 2007
Year W-L Pct Att/G
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
2003 64-98 .395 25,063
2004 87-75 .537 37,244
2005 82-80 .506 35,429
2006 88-74 .543 32,837
2007 89-74 .546 34,445

You see, perhaps, why teams are anxious to build new stadiums? A club coming off a 98-loss season can reap tremendous rewards (especially if taxpayers help flip the bill, which is another issue altogether). Meanwhile, a club that wins 82-89 games a year struggles to keep bodies in seats.

Why is that?

IGD: Padres vs Dodgers (15 Mar 08)

How ’bout a replay?
How ’bout a Fresca?

Game starts at 10 p.m. PT. Channel 4SD, XM 178.