IGD: Padres vs Astros (31 Mar 08)

Jake PeavyPadres (0-0) vs Astros (0-0)
Jake Peavy vs Roy Oswalt
7:05 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 184
MLB, B-R

It’s beginning to look a lot like Opening Day. What better time to bust out an esoteric table:

Jake Peavy: 2007 Starts by Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Str/Pit GS IP/GS H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA W-L RS/G RA/G
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
>.66 10 6.80 5.16 0.40 2.51 11.25 1.72 8-1 6.70 2.60
.63-.66 15 6.60 7.64 0.45 2.36 9.00 2.36 6-4 3.73 2.87
<.63 9 6.30 7.31 0.79 3.65 8.89 3.81 5-1 6.44 3.78

Throwing strikes is good. Apparently so is having your teammates score lots of runs.

Series Preview: Lisa Gray Talks Astros

I’m making a concerted effort to do more interviews this year and get more voices talking here at Ducksnorts. With that in mind, it’s my great pleasure to bring you Lisa Gray, of the excellent Astros Dugout, who will tell us a little more about the Padres’ first opponent of 2008.

Ducksnorts: The Astros and Padres are similar in many respects. Both teams entered the league during the ’60s and still are largely ignored by the national media. With the retirement of Jeff Bagwell and now Craig Biggio, how does the franchise go about re-establishing itself in an environment where so much emphasis is placed on individual players, particularly those in large media markets?

Gray: That is a very good question. Unfortunately, there is no way to get rid of the media infatuation and obsession with the Red Sox/Yankees/Mets/Cubs. Even the acquisition of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte in 2004 did very little to interest the East Coast obsessed media and consequently, the vast majority of the country, including the vast majority of mainstream media baseball analysts, missed one of the best NLCS ever played.

There really is no way to fight the media’s prejudices, so it is in the best interest of the franchise to, as best it can, ignore that prejudice and concentrate on its own home base.

At this point, I would guess that the team may try to market Hunter Pence and/or Michael Bourn as its new stars; Roy Oswalt is simply too quiet and seemingly bland, and Lance Berkman’s personality is not compatible with what the public wants to see in a “star.”

Ducksnorts: Former Padres staffer Ed Wade is the new GM in Houston. What has he brought to the ballclub thus far, and do you like what you see?

Gray: Ed Wade has made most Astros fans deliriously happy by trading away all the players they hated and wanted off the team, and by obtaining steroid-user Miguel Tejada, long coveted by both the fans and owner. Wade has replaced the entire bullpen, again, elating most of the fans, as they wanted this. The only thing he has not done that could have pleased the fans more would have been to re-acquire fan favorite Willy Taveras. The fans will undoubtedly forgive him for that if Michael Bourn steals plenty of bases.

As for me, I understand that Wade was (most likely) instructed to get rid of certain players and to trade for Tejada, and having to do so with an almost barren farm was a challenge: he did the best he could with what little he had. I don’t know if it is even reasonable to criticize his trades and signings because I have no idea how much freedom he actually has: when he was hired, it was made more than plain that he had been hired because he was the only candidate who had agreed to “work with” Tal Smith.

I do think that the signing of second baseman [Kazuo] Matsui, who has never exceeded 114 games played in a single season, to a 3 year contract was not sensible, nor is batting him second simply because he runs fast. Wade has also signed a significant number of mediocre middle relievers, as is his habit, and we’ll have to see how that works out. I will reserve judgement until I see how he does with this year’s draft, unless the owner again makes it plain that no player will be signed again for higher than slot, restricting the quality of draftees.

Ducksnorts: What did you think of the Miguel Tejada trade? What are your expectations for Tejada in 2008 and beyond?

Gray: I wasn’t particularly happy with the Tejada trade. I know the local media and fans expect him to outhomer Lance Berkman, but he is a poor defender whose power has been steadily decreasing since steroid testing began, and 13 million a year is a lot to pay for a fairly powerless .300 BA. I would have been a lot happier had ownership installed Tejada at third, retained Adam Everett at short and not signed Ty Wigginton to play third.

Ducksnorts: Why don’t more people realize how good Lance Berkman is?

Gray: People don’t know who Lance Berkman is because he doesn’t act or talk like the stereotyped leader (translation — unpleasant jerk who pushes young guys around and “calls out” other players — just what the media loves) but instead is more of a clubhouse clown who tries to keep the guys loose. Too many people equate an easygoing personality with sloth, and contrary to public opinion, Berkman is a very hard worker. He also doesn’t play for one of the media’s glamour teams, and he never finished first in the three statistical offensive categories that the media deems important, so they don’t bother to write about him.

Ducksnorts: How good can outfielder/blogger Hunter Pence be?

Gray: Pence, like any other sophomore, will have to make adjustments to the pitchers, who have been busy studying video on him. He seems to have been able to make adjustments when necessary last year and has always been a good hitter. His numbers may decrease somewhat, but they should be solid. Unfortunately, he is (until Matsui returns) slated to bat sixth instead of second, behind GIDP kings Lee and Tejada, so his RBI opportunities will be decreased. Also, he is scheduled to bat in front of slow pull hitter Ty Wigginton, so he may have more steals than expected so he can stay out of the double play.

As for blogging, Hunter is already an expert at saying things that are chatty, yet say absolutely nothing except how excited he about this, that and the other.

Ducksnorts: Who has the best hair in baseball?

Gray: Matt Murton. I like red hair and his is the reddest.

Fair enough. We still have a soft spot for Geoff Blum’s hair (although we won’t miss watching him chase sliders down and in). Thanks again to Lisa for taking the time to chat with us. Here’s hoping for an entertaining series (with a favorable outcome, of course).

. . .

First pitch tonight is 7:05 p.m. PT. We’ll have the IGD up and running about an hour before then. Meanwhile, be sure to get your predictions in for 2008. Go Padres!

Your Predictions for 2008?

From esteemed reader LynchMob comes this excellent idea for a post on the eve of Opening Day: “provide us with a list of questions which you want us, the commenters, to go ‘on the record’ with”; he then poses several questions, which you will find below.

This might be fun to peek back at throughout the season. I’ll lead off with my responses; feel free to follow…

  1. How many wins for the Padres in 2008?
    They’ll go 86-76.
  2. Is this 2008 team better or worse than the 2007 team? Why?
    About the same. Randy Wolf and Tadahito Iguchi should represent upgrades over David Wells and Marcus Giles, while Jim Edmonds won’t produce like Mike Cameron.
  3. Where will they finish in the NL West?
    Second place.
  4. What are their chances of making the playoffs? Winning a playoff series? Winning it all?
    They have about a 35-40% chance of making the playoffs. After that, who knows? I’ll say 15-20% chance of winning a series, and 3% chance of winning it all.
  5. What player(s) do you think is most likely to exceed expectations?
    Scott Hairston.
  6. What player(s) do you think is most likely to disappoint?
    Edmonds.
  7. Is there a move (or 2 or 3) which you wish the Padres had made this offseason? Explain what you think will actually happen in 2008 compared to what you would have projected to happen if they had made that move (or 2 or 3).
    More help for the back of the rotation; Livan Hernandez or Kyle Lohse would have been nice. A better contingency plan for center field. Not sure those would be enough for the Padres to win the division, but they might mean the difference between winning the wild card or not.
  8. What minor leaguers do you expect to make a contribution to the 2008 Padres?
    Chase Headley, possibly Wade LeBlanc and/or some relievers (Will Startup? Mauro Zarate?)
  9. When will Chase Headley get called up? Will he stick? Will he get ROY votes? What are his chances for NL ROY?
    He’ll be up mid-May and it will be for good. Even if he plays well, he won’t get ROY consideration because most voters either don’t know or don’t care about park effects.
  10. Who will be the first Padre to be released? When?
    Wil Ledezma. April 28.
  11. What kind of in-season trades do you think the Padres will make? Any in April?
    They might acquire more pitching depth if possible. If Edmonds’ injuries linger, depending on how well Hairston performs in center, they might make a play there as well.
  12. Any players you don’t expect to be healthy for a full season (besides Edmonds)?
    Brian Giles and Wolf are obvious choices. I also have concerns about Heath Bell because of last year’s workload. I hope I’m wrong; the Padres need him.
  13. Do you have any clear picks for division winners? Pennant winners? World Champion?
    Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks. Wild cards are Indians and Phillies. Arizona beats Detroit in the World Series.

Those are mine. What are yours?

2008 Roster Contest Winner

At the end of February we held a “Guess the Opening Day roster” contest. Many participated, and one emerged victorious: long-time reader Bruce K. nailed 22 of the 25 roster spots, missing only on Justin Huber (which all 20 of us missed for obvious reasons — the contest closed on March 9, and Huber didn’t join the Padres until March 26), Wil Ledezma (only one person had him on their list), and Paul McAnulty (four people had him listed).

Congratulations to Bruce! For his efforts, he will receive a copy of the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual. Thanks to all who participated, and special thanks to reader Colin, who sponsored this contest. Go Padres!

Eats and Drinks Near Petco Park

As regular readers know, because there are so many great food options within walking distance of Petco Park, I don’t do ballpark concessions. With Opening Day just around the metaphorical corner, I figure now is as good a time as any to revisit the ol’ Restaurant Guide.

One place I recently was turned onto is The Fleetwood. It opened in September 2007 and is just a few stumbles away from the park. Aaron, Brendan, and the rest of the gang serve up excellent steaks, chops, and beers. They also take good care of Padres fans, so, yeah, I think we’ll be paying them a visit at some point.

Anyway, have a look at the Guide and let me know if anything needs to be added/changed. Or if you want to talk about other stuff, well, then, please go right ahead.

IGD: Padres vs Angels (28 Mar 08)

Petco Park

That’s where they’re playing tonight. Believe it.

Friday Links (28 Mar 08)

Is it my imagination, or are these weekly link roundups becoming a tad unwieldy? Would it be better to do a link post every day or two (not as a substitute for my normal daily thing, but in addition to it)? Let me know what you think…

  • Mike Bauman at Padres.com notes that Jake Peavy is working on his changeup (h/t LynchMob), which could make him an even better pitcher. Better? Well, he just won the Cy Young Award unanimously, so that might be stretching it. Still, it’s good that Peavy is making an effort to refine his game. That gives him a better chance to maintain his current level of productivity. Love this quote from Peavy:

    I’m not anywhere close to where I want to be. In this game it’s hard to be consistent, to stay on top of your game. There’s no doubt in my mind that I know that I’ve got to work, and keep working and continually get better. And I look to do that.

    Laurels? What laurels?

  • Speaking of Peavy, his number 22 will be retired at Lake Elsinore before the Storm’s home opener on Thursday, April 3. He’s also scheduled to deliver the ceremonial first pitch. That’d be a good time to bust out the changeup. ;-)
  • Heck, while we’re on the subject, Josh Kalk at Hardball Times offers a detailed look at Peavy’s pitches (h/t Pat).
  • The U-T’s Bill Center writes about Adrian Gonzalez’s defense at first base (h/t Phantom). This is the position I played many, many moons ago, and I consider myself a connoisseur of good defense around the bag. Gonzalez isn’t the best I’ve seen — that would probably be J.T. Snow (didn’t see enough of Keith Hernandez back in the day) — but his instincts and footwork are outstanding. Regardless of how much difference it makes in terms of wins and losses, he is a pleasure to watch.
  • Speaking of first basemen, the Padres acquired Justin Huber from the Royals for a PTBNL. This is a typical under-the-radar move that many fans will cite as evidence of the club’s unwillingness to spend money but which just might pay dividends. Not long ago, Huber, a former catcher, was a top prospect in the Mets and Royals organizations. Prospect guru John Sickels rated him a B+ as recently as 2006 (h/t LynchMob). From the Baseball America 2003 Prospect Handbook:

    Strong and intense, he has the bat speed and power to hit 25-30 home runs a year. Huber understands the strike zone.

    Yes, that was 5 years ago. Scott Hairston was the Diamondbacks’ #1 prospect in ’03 and it took him a while to arrive. Maybe Huber turns out to be something, maybe not. What’s the harm in finding out?

  • The U-T’s Tim Sullivan talks about Chase Headley and the role “service time” may have played in making the decision to start him at Triple-A Portland (h/t LynchMob). Yeah, that and the fact that he’s never played outfield in a pro game that counts for anything.
  • Sure, the outfield is kind of a mess (h/t Coronado Mike), but whatever. Headley will be in San Diego soon enough.
  • Tom Krasovic reports that Mark Prior threw about 60 pitches on Thursday, including several to live hitters, and that his fastball was in the low-80s. My advice remains to forget that Prior even exists.
  • MB has a new top 30 prospects posted at Friar Forecast. This one is contributed by guest author Padman.
  • The Baseball Crank examines the NL West (h/t Pat) and, like everyone else, isn’t impressed with the Padres:

    Pity the poor Padres, still working off a 2004-07 blueprint for winning the NL West – over the past 4 years, the division winner has averaged 88 wins a year. This roster might, if things break right, be up to the task of winning in the high 80s against weak intra-division competition – but against a deep and talented trio of opponents, the Pads are just outclassed, and should be officially in rebuilding mode by midsummer, looking to shop Giles, Maddux, Iguchi, and possibly Clark and Edmonds (Hoffman, I assume, will remain a Padre to the bitter end).

    He’s got the Padres at 77-85. It is good to be underestimated.

  • Tom Verducci at SI.com previews the National League (h/t Phantom). His take on the Padres: “San Diego is a poor offensive team.” Bzzzt, read up on park factors and take another guess. I’m okay with “average” (I disagree, but I’m okay with it), but “poor” simply isn’t accurate.
  • SI.com also predicts a 79-83 record and fourth-place finish for the Padres (h/t Kevin). Does this bother me? Not really, but I’m sure I’d feel much worse if I weren’t under such heavy sedation.
  • Now that I’ve said nasty things about Sports Illustrated, I should also mention that according to the good folks at Sacrifice Bunt, the magazine recently made its entire archives available online at no cost to you and me. That’s crazy cool.
  • Kevin Czerwinski at MiLB.com talks Padres prospects (h/t LynchMob). The continued infatuation with Cesar Ramos baffles me. I hope to heck he makes me take back every last bad thing I’ve ever said about him (well, about his pitching; I’m sure he’s a nice guy and all), but I’m not counting on it.
  • Denis Savage at MadFriars gives the scoop (h/t LynchMob) on some minor leaguers who were released. None of these guys made it out of the “Other” section in the chapter on minor leaguers in the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual. You’re still telling folks to buy the book, right? No pressure, but I’m starting to run low on funds. ;-)
  • Zagz points us to a report that Preston Gomez, original manager of the NL Padres, was critically injured after being hit by a truck in Blythe, Calif. My thoughts are with Mr. Gomez.
  • Rob Neyer lists his top 50 players over the next five years (h/t Schlom). First off, big thanks to ESPN for letting everyone read this. Second, Peavy is pretty obvious (although #23 might be a shade low), but nice job slipping Gonzalez in at #38 — ahead of Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard, no less. Well played.
  • Fun times for my alma mater (h/t Didi). First USD won its first ever NCAA hoops tourney game. Then Brian Matusz fanned a school-record 16 batters. Then Josh Romanski tossed a no-hitter. I actually got to attend those last two events. First time I’d ever seen a no-no in person. Congrats, Josh, and go Toreros!

There you have it. Again, let me know if you want me to do link posts more often. Also, the Padres and Angels play tonight at Petco Park. First pitch is 7:05 p.m. PT, and the game will be televised on Channel 4SD. We’ll have the IGD up and running about an hour before the shindig begins. Rock on!

Sportswrappin’

Geoff Young (left) and Derek Togerson on NBC 7/39's 'SportsWrap', aired March 23, 2008

As I’ve mentioned, Derek Togerson was kind enough to have me on as a guest of NBC 7/39′s “SportsWrap” this past Sunday evening. Our segment was the Padres preview, so there wasn’t really an opportunity to pimp the book. Still, we had a great time talking baseball. Some highlights:

I cited the continued development of Chase Headley as the most exciting item of the spring and said that we’d see him at some point during the season, but that the left field job probably was Scott Hairston’s for now (we taped this on March 15). I also noted that the Padres wouldn’t bring Headley up as a stopgap solution — an everyday job would need to open up for him, and given the age and injury concerns of Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles, this could happen sooner rather than later.

Derek and I also talked about the rotation. I said that Chris Young’s second half was a fluke related to his oblique problem and that assuming he’s healthy, he’ll be a stud. I said that Randy Wolf should be effective, and the key would be whether he could stay healthy; if the Padres get 25 starts out of him, they’ll be in good shape. For the #5 spot, I advised against expecting anything from Mark Prior and said that I wasn’t excited about our other options.

When Derek asked me to “bottom line” the season, I said the Padres would win 85-86 games but not make the playoffs because the NL West is just too strong. As I did last spring, I picked Arizona to take the division. Derek went with Colorado.

Thanks again to Derek and the gang for having me on the show!

Padres Pick Up Black’s Option

Bud BlackThe Padres have picked up manager Bud Black’s option for 2009 and reportedly would like to extend his contract even further. Quoth GM Kevin Towers:

We thought he had a great year and he’s only going to get better and better. He’s a pro, he’s smart, he represents the organization very, very well. The players like him. The longer he’s here and the more people get to know him they’re going to realize he’s a special guy.

I’m generally pleased with the job Black did in his rookie campaign, and it’s clear now that he was the right man to take over when Bruce Bochy bolted to San Francisco. Here’s what I said about Black when the Padres hired him in November 2006:

According to his Angels bio, Black hasn’t managed at any level. How much does that matter? Eh, the difference between “has fresh ideas” and “lacks experience” is about the same as that between winning and losing.

Was Black perfect? No. Nobody is. In the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual, I take exception to moves he made (or didn’t make) in games on April 18 and July 3. But that’s twice in 163 games I felt compelled to whine about his decisions. I’m pretty sure I can live with that.

One aspect of Black’s brief tenure that I’ve enjoyed so far is the home runs. If you read many season previews right now, they’re spouting a bunch of nonsense about how the Padres have no power. It’s okay, they’re not well informed. They should be, but they’re not.

Anyway, I don’t know who’s responsible for this, but check out what’s happened under Black’s watch in terms of the big fly:

Padres Home Runs by Manager
    Home Runs Games
Manager Games Padres Opp Diff Wins Losses Pct
Stats are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
Bud Black 163 171 119 +52 89 74 .546
Preston Gomez 496 371 364 +7 180 316 .363
Greg Riddoch 394 307 304 +3 200 194 .508
Bob Skinner 1 1 1 0 1 0 1.000
Jim Riggleman 291 249 255 -6 112 179 .385
Roger Craig 323 168 182 -14 152 171 .471
Steve Boros 162 136 150 -14 74 88 .457
Alvin Dark 113 81 96 -15 48 65 .425
Jerry Coleman 162 67 97 -30 73 89 .451
Frank Howard 110 32 64 -32 41 69 .373
Jack McKeon 357 254 295 -41 193 164 .541
Don Zimmer 304 210 269 -59 114 190 .375
Larry Bowa 208 141 210 -69 81 127 .389
John McNamara 534 279 373 -94 224 310 .419
Dick Williams 649 392 532 -140 337 311 .520
Bruce Bochy 1926 1747 2085 -338 951 975 .494

Gomez and his .363 winning percentage remind us that outhomering the opposition ain’t the end-all and be-all. That said, Black’s Padres were the first to outscore the opposition at Petco Park. Here’s hoping Black can build on his initial success in ’08 and make the “experts” feel a little sheepish for picking the Padres to finish fourth in the division.

IGD: Padres vs Royals (25 Mar 08)

King Arthur: I am your king!
Woman: Well I didn’t vote for you!
King Arthur: You don’t vote for kings.
Woman: Well how’d you become king then?