As a reminder, we’re looking for your individual best guess on how these players will perform in 2008. Attempting to compensate for other guesses that you don’t agree with defeats the purpose of the exercise.
Okay, enough with the lecture. Now we get to the scary part of the rotation. I’ve got projections here for Randy Wolf, Mark Prior, and Clay Hensley. If you want to throw something out there for, say, Shawn Estes, Justin Germano, Enrique Gonzalez, or Glendon Rusch, go right ahead. Eric Nolte? Sure, why not.
Randy Wolf
Wolf is basically a better version of Sterling Hitchcock. Effective when healthy, Wolf hasn’t made even 20 starts in a season since 2004. He’s now 31 years old and coming off yet more surgery. I’ll go with 95 IP, 4.91 ERA.
Mark Prior
Ouija board says: 40 IP, 5.15 ERA. Also, be sure to lay all your money on 22 at the roulette table.
Clay Hensley
Hensley was real good when healthy. He did great work out of the ‘pen at the end of 2005 and finished 10th in the NL in ERA in 2006. Last year he never got on track and now he’s coming off surgery as well. I’m guardedly optimistic that the Padres will get something out of him in ’08: 90 IP, 4.68 ERA.
And people keep insisting that offense is the problem…
Spots 4-5 of the rotation:
Wolf 84 IP 4.52 ERA 14 Starts
Prior 45 IP 4.95 ERA 8 Starts
Hensley 146 IP 25 Starts 4.02 ERA
Germano 100IP 3.74 ERA 10 Starts (spends time in the pen)
Geer 10IP 5.40 ERA 2 Starts
Estes cut after ST
Rusch 30 IP 4.52ERA 0 Starts (cut in June)
I should have made a guess for Germano. I’ll say 90 IP, 4.99 ERA.
Ok well here goes nothing:
Wolf 120 IP 4.02 ERA
Prior 75IP 3.21 ERA
Hensley 50IP 4.99 ERA
Germano 112 IP 4.25 ERA
I think Wolf’s K rate and FB rate are a play in Petco, the same for Prior but Prior is going to especially enjoy the good defense in San Diego’s infield.
Oh and Hensley met the cliff last year……Germano isn’t nearly as bad as we sometimes make him out to be.
Wolf: 145 IP, 3.98 ERA – I really feel good about this signing. I think he’s got huge potential for us.
Prior: 64 IP, 4.23 ERA
Hensley: 89 IP, 3.87 ERA – Still feel that 06 wasn’t a fluke. I think if he learns to master his sinker, he’s a huge assett.
Germano: 95 IP, 4.67 ERA – Nice guy, but the league’s got his number.
You know I missed out on yesterday, and who we think is writing your forward. For me it has to be John Kruk.
Wolf 130 IP 4.09
Prior 60 IP 4.20, 50 Ks, broken fibula
Hensley: will not reemerge til midseason – won’t be ready for fifth starter’s spot in April.
Germano 95 IP 4.50
and a pleasant surprise in September: Carillo 29 IP, 3.30, 5 starts
Alright Geoff, I see what you say that we shouldn’t try to submit projections just to compensate for other people’s optimism. I think that the Pads’ 4th-6th starters are giving us an opportunity to submit projections of doom and gloom.
Wolf: 147 IPs, 4.22
Prior: 99 IPs, 3.99
Hensley: 120 IPs, 4.33
Germano: 33 IPs, 5.11 AAA most of the year, spot starts
Rusch: cut in spring training
Estes: 22 IPs, 4.44 a little bit of time out of the bullpen, maybe 1 or 2 starts
As for the foreword, I’m thinking Trader Jack
#5: Kruk is solid.
#6: Friar Phil, playin’ the Carrillo card; I like it.
#7: Thanks for bringing up the issue in the first place. I’d made an assumption in my head and forgotten to share it with everyone. Now get back to work on your mind-reading skills.
re: forward by … has anyone guess TG yet? Now that would be a *coup*
( http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/coup )
10 … one more guess … MattV?
Philly Billy?
Prior- 70 IP 4.30 ERA
Wolf- 150 IP 4.25 ERA
Hensley- 70 IP 5.00 ERA
germano- 65 IP 5.50 ERA sent down or released by mid season
may be a bit harsh