Yesterday we ran the hitters, today it’s time for the moundsmen:
| Player | No. | IP | ERA | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: No., number of people who submitted guesses; IP, innings pitched, ERA, duh; range, lower and upper guesses for ERA. | ||||
| Left-Handers | ||||
| Hampson, Justin | 11 | 48 | 4.21 | 3.50 – 5.05 |
| Thatcher, Joe | 11 | 58 | 2.86 | 1.96 – 3.42 |
| Wolf, Randy | 15 | 124 | 4.18 | 3.71 – 4.91 |
| Right-Handers | ||||
| Bell, Heath | 12 | 81 | 2.76 | 2.25 – 3.53 |
| Cameron, Kevin | 11 | 53 | 3.78 | 3.10 – 4.85 |
| Germano, Justin | 14 | 81 | 4.62 | 3.74 – 5.50 |
| Hensley, Clay | 13 | 80 | 4.43 | 3.80 – 5.20 |
| Hoffman, Trevor | 15 | 51 | 3.21 | 2.60 – 5.00 |
| Maddux, Greg | 17 | 191 | 4.09 | 3.80 – 4.29 |
| Meredith, Cla | 14 | 72 | 2.97 | 2.40 – 3.41 |
| Peavy, Jake | 21 | 212 | 2.81 | 2.12 – 3.20 |
| Prior, Mark | 14 | 68 | 4.16 | 3.21 – 5.15 |
| Young, Chris | 17 | 179 | 3.23 | 2.40 – 4.15 |
- I don’t know if people got tired of the project toward the end or just had less confidence in projecting pitchers (especially relievers), but there was less participation here. I’m not being critical, just making an observation. Pitchers do seem to be more difficult to project, and with relievers there is so much yearly fluctuation due to small sample sizes.
- We may be underselling Hampson and overselling Thatcher. If the Padres get 100 or so innings of 3.50ish ERA from them combined, as we seem to think, I’ll be happy.
- The 5.00 ERA for Hoffman is an extreme outlier. The next highest guess puts him at 3.69. Still, at his age an implosion is not out of the question. Here’s hoping that guess is wrong.
- I love the amount of confidence we have in the Maddux projection. That is a remarkably small range.
- I could live with Peavy’s worst-case scenario.
- Prior might be the hardest guy in baseball to project.
- We like Young’s chances of returning to last year’s pre-injury form, but once again don’t expect him to make it through the season healthy.
We’ll see what happens…