OBG08 Projections for Padres Pitchers

Yesterday we ran the hitters, today it’s time for the moundsmen:

OBG08 Projections for Select Padres Pitchers
Player No. IP ERA Range
Key: No., number of people who submitted guesses; IP, innings pitched, ERA, duh; range, lower and upper guesses for ERA.
Left-Handers
Hampson, Justin 11 48 4.21 3.50 – 5.05
Thatcher, Joe 11 58 2.86 1.96 – 3.42
Wolf, Randy 15 124 4.18 3.71 – 4.91
Right-Handers
Bell, Heath 12 81 2.76 2.25 – 3.53
Cameron, Kevin 11 53 3.78 3.10 – 4.85
Germano, Justin 14 81 4.62 3.74 – 5.50
Hensley, Clay 13 80 4.43 3.80 – 5.20
Hoffman, Trevor 15 51 3.21 2.60 – 5.00
Maddux, Greg 17 191 4.09 3.80 – 4.29
Meredith, Cla 14 72 2.97 2.40 – 3.41
Peavy, Jake 21 212 2.81 2.12 – 3.20
Prior, Mark 14 68 4.16 3.21 – 5.15
Young, Chris 17 179 3.23 2.40 – 4.15
  • I don’t know if people got tired of the project toward the end or just had less confidence in projecting pitchers (especially relievers), but there was less participation here. I’m not being critical, just making an observation. Pitchers do seem to be more difficult to project, and with relievers there is so much yearly fluctuation due to small sample sizes.
  • We may be underselling Hampson and overselling Thatcher. If the Padres get 100 or so innings of 3.50ish ERA from them combined, as we seem to think, I’ll be happy.
  • The 5.00 ERA for Hoffman is an extreme outlier. The next highest guess puts him at 3.69. Still, at his age an implosion is not out of the question. Here’s hoping that guess is wrong.
  • I love the amount of confidence we have in the Maddux projection. That is a remarkably small range.
  • I could live with Peavy’s worst-case scenario.
  • Prior might be the hardest guy in baseball to project.
  • We like Young’s chances of returning to last year’s pre-injury form, but once again don’t expect him to make it through the season healthy.

We’ll see what happens…

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8 Responses »

  1. I think that was me with the 5.00 ERA for Hoffy. Maybe his new windup will help him this year:

    http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20080217/news_1s17padres.html

    Thanks GY for the compilations.

  2. #1: No prob. :-)

    On an unrelated note, I’ll be running this tomorrow, but folks who read the comments get first crack at the free “excerpts from DS ’08 Annual” download (PDF, 143k):

    http://ducksnorts.com/pdf/excerpts-from-Ducksnorts-2008-Baseball-Annual.pdf

    Enjoy!

  3. i know for sure i only rated the most guaranteed bullpen guys. i didnt even bother the back end of the pen because of how many kids are trying to get to those spots.

    loved the part comparing the silva contract and the peavy contract. what a laugher.

    will read more later but i really like how the sample starts!

  4. GY – I sent you this link via email, but I thought I’d drop by and drop it off here as well. It’s a break down of Priors pitching mechanics from a slightly different perspective.

    http://tinyurl.com/22tvvs

  5. Hoffy “might reintroduce a windup”?

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AsSsVZjZ1n.7kpBXcg8kDVoRvLYF?slug=ti-hoffmanpadres021608&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

    ps. I like how this writter describes the end of the 2007 season: “a 13th inning against the Colorado Rockies that never ended, Matt Holliday in the general vicinity of home plate” :-)

  6. This Yahoo Padres Team Report says …

    RHP Clay Hensley (right labrum surgery in September 2007) is questionable for the start of the 2008 season.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AspixGRSsUB6oOlcvNbJTc.pu7YF?slug=sportsxchange-teamreports-2008-mlb-sdg&prov=sportsxchange&type=team_report

    It says a lot of other things that match my understanding of the status of the team …

  7. http://coreybrock.mlblogs.com/coreybrock/2008/02/greene_a_padres.html KG saying what we know(SD is the greatest) while others are trying to convince us he wants to play elsewhere.