We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time

-T.S. Eliot

As another season draws to a close, so does another year of following the Padres at Ducksnorts. And while our favorite baseball team will return to fight again next year, I will not.

After 14 years of producing Ducksnorts, I no longer have the time or energy necessary to do so at a level of quality acceptable to me. The sacrifices and compromises one is willing to make in life at age 42 are different from those one is willing to make at age 28.

Ballplayers get old. Writers get old. Priorities change.

When Ducksnorts first launched in 1997, Hank Aaron and Roger Maris reigned as baseball’s home run kings, Derrek Lee still played for the Padres, and Anthony Rizzo was just entering the third grade. In some respects, it seems like a lifetime ago. Heck, I’ve never even lived in a place as long as I’ve written Ducksnorts.

The list of people I need to acknowledge for their support and guidance is prohibitively long, so we’ll just stick to generalities. Thanks to everyone who ever read, commented, or otherwise participated here at Ducksnorts; to everyone who bought my books; to the folks at Top Prospect Alert, Hardball Times, All-Baseball/MVN, b5media, Baseball Daily Digest, Baseball Prospectus, and ESPN for providing me with opportunities to reach a wider audience than I’d ever dreamed possible; to current and former members of the Padres front office, broadcast team, and other departments for their generosity of time and spirit; to local, national, and international broadcast and print media who have taken an interest in my work here; and to everyone who doesn’t fall into one of the aforementioned categories.

Thanks most of all to my wife of nearly 16 years for putting up with more of my nonsense than you’ll ever know. How and why she has done so lies quite beyond my comprehension, but I am grateful beyond words that she has.

To everyone reading this: It has been an honor and a pleasure to serve you as best I could over the years. If you need to find me for whatever reason, I’ll still be at Baseball Prospectus, Twitter, Petco Park, and various minor-league ballparks.

Thanks again for everything, and take care. Go Padres!

gy

With Kyle Blanks and Jesus Guzman nursing injuries and a lefty on the mound, Black’s options were limited. He could have started rookie Anthony Rizzo, but Rizzo isn’t hitting anyone, let alone crafty veteran southpaws. Then again, how can he learn if he never gets the opportunity?

Gonzalez, on the other hand, is a known quantity. And what we know is that he is one of the worst hitters ever to play first base for the Padres. Here are the 10 lowest single-season OPS+ among men who played at least 1 percent of their games at first base for the Padres (minimum 200 PA):

Player            Year  PA   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+
Kevin Higgins     1993 202 .221 .294 .254  48
Jose Arcia        1969 321 .215 .255 .272  50
Alberto Gonzalez  2011 265 .215 .254 .285  53
Julius Matos      2002 200 .238 .279 .286  57
Ted Kubiak        1975 223 .224 .308 .250  61
Mark Bellhorn     2006 288 .190 .285 .344  67
Brian Johnson     1995 224 .251 .287 .338  67
Fred Kendall      1972 289 .216 .247 .322  67
Luis Salazar      1987 206 .254 .302 .328  70
Carlos Hernandez  2000 212 .251 .316 .340  72
Broderick Perkins 1978 227 .240 .253 .341  72

Higgins, Arcia, Matos, and Kubiak never started a game at first base. We might have forgiven Preston Gomez had he started Arcia. Yes, Gomez had Nate Colbert, but Colbert began the season backing up Bill Davis. Besides, Gomez did give Roberto Pena (who just misses our list) 11 starts at first base, the same number Bruce Bochy gave Bellhorn in 2006 despite the presence of Adrian Gonzalez.

I’m not sure I have a point here beyond hoping that this is the last time we ever see Alberto Gonzalez start a game at first base for the Padres. Also, Wade LeBlanc struck out 10 batters, which is awesome because that might not happen again in his lifetime.

* * *

Aaron Harang threw a gem on Saturday, holding the Dodgers scoreless for eight innings. The only scare was a drive to the warning track in center field off the bat of Matt Kemp in the sixth. Kemp dove away from a pitch right down the middle earlier in the at-bat, which elicited a response of “ooh” from the crowd but which was completely superfluous. He was in as much danger of being hit by Harang’s pitch as I am of being mistaken for Will Smith, although I have been known to get jiggy with it.

Harang is now 14-7 on the season. His .667 winning percentage ties him for sixth among Padres pitchers in a single season (minimum 20 decisions). He is the only member of the top 10 to pitch for a team with a losing record. Tim Lollar (16-9 in 1982) checks in at no. 11 for a team that went 81-81. Otherwise, you have to go back to 1975, when Randy Jones went 20-12 for a 71-91 team.

Because you’re dying to know:

Player       Year GS    IP ERA+ RS/G
Aaron Harang 2011 28 170.2  98  4.88
Randy Jones  1975 36 285.0 156  3.74

Sorry, Aaron, you won’t be getting your own barbecue joint any time soon…

The other thing about this game I need to mention is Andy Parrino’s play at shortstop. Parrino isn’t really a prospect but he can do a lot of little things and it’s hard not to get excited about the opportunity afforded this former 26th-round pick in the wake of injuries to Logan Forsythe and James Darnell.

The Padres always seem to have a guy like Parrino in their system. J.J. Furmaniak, Sean Kazmar, and Lance Zawadzki immediately leap to mind, and I’m sure there are others I’m forgetting. Parrino is a switch-hitter who has batted .264/.368/.398 in just over 2,000 minor-league plate appearances. He has split most of his career between shortstop and second base, but has played everywhere except catcher (yeah, he even got into two games as a pitcher at Lake Elsinore in 2009).

Anyway, Parrino started on Saturday in place of team hit leader Jason Bartlett. Batting eighth, Parrino went 0-for-0, notched his first big-league stolen base, and scored a run. That’s two walks and a HBP, in case you’re wondering.

In the seventh, he also brought back memories of Khalil Greene’s 2004 performance against the Cubs with two dazzling defensive plays. Aside from Parrino’s plays, which were beautiful to watch, there are a couple of items worth noting:

• Rizzo’s stretch on the first play is one of the better efforts you’ll see. It speaks to his athleticism as well as his desire and focus. And for whatever struggles Rizzo may have experienced at the plate in his rookie campaign, his excellent glovework at first base has not gone unnoticed. In this observer’s eyes, he is every bit the defender that Adrian Gonzalez was.
• On the second play, you can see Rizzo applauding Parrino’s effort. On one of the other angles, you can see rookie catcher Luis Martinez running down the line to back up the throw. When he sees the play made, Martinez gives a little fist pump.

Fans may have given up on this team, but the kids out on the field haven’t. It is encouraging to see these youngsters playing with enthusiasm despite the fact that their team stinks right now.

For his various faults (Alberto Gonzalez at first base?), Black deserves credit for not letting his charges hang their heads. Yeah, they are professionals who are expected to give their best effort 162 times a year, but you never had a bad day at work?

Maybe I’m making too much of this, but as someone who doesn’t deal well with losing, I like seeing these guys play with passion. Everyone is auditioning for next year, and it’s bringing out the best in them. They won’t all make it, but some will, and eventually this team won’t stink anymore.

* * *

While rummaging through old notebooks, I discovered an early attempt of mine to write about baseball. From an entry dated April 4, 1994:

I watched the first three innings of opening night, Cards at the Reds. 1st batter of the season, Ray Lankford of the Cardinals, works Jose Rijo to a full count, then drives a flat slider over the left-centerfield wall. Baseball is back.

Hardly profound, but there it is. And this:

Trying to put 1993 behind them, the Padres played their opener this afternoon against the Atlanta Braves. The Braves, now in the National League East under the new alignment implemented this past winter, showed that they are still the class of the league. In a matchup of two of the league’s best righthanders, Greg Maddux and Andy Benes… screw this. I love baseball but I’m not sportswriter.

This was a month shy of my 26th birthday. Patience has never been a strength of mine, and that was even more true when I was younger.

Besides, I was more into poetry so I wrote a poem about hiking through Palm Canyon in the Anza-Borrego Desert that became my first published piece. It appeared in a magazine called Wordimage, which if memory serves (like many things from that era, a copy of the magazine is probably around here somewhere, but I’ll be darned if I know where) was based out of North Carolina, a hotbed of minor-league baseball.

Then Kurt Cobain shot himself. I wrote a poem about that, based on a photograph taken while the coroner was examining the body. I also wrote a song that contained too many verses and a chorus earnest enough to make me wince 17 years later:

Anger of a generation, forgotten but not gone
You were seen as their salvation, something they had won
No apologies will be necessary
Hope you found a better place, hope you found nirvana

I’ve forgotten the chord progression but I remember the melody, which borrowed from several different Nirvana songs, notably “All Apologies,” “Smells Like Teen Spirit,” and “Heart-Shaped Box.” I was never a huge fan of their music (I liked it well enough and recognize its importance to American popular culture), but Cobain’s death — like those of John Lennon and Stevie Ray Vaughan (whose spirit seems to accompany me on road trips) before him — came at a time when I still believed in heroes, even if they had their flaws.

Heroes are a reflection of those that would idolize them. Who among us is without flaws?

* * *

Sunday afternoon, Clayton Kershaw happened. The lone Padres highlight came when Aaron Cunningham cranked a homer in the fifth inning, by which time I had stopped watching.

I did watch long enough to see erstwhile “first baseman” Alberto Gonzalez boot a grounder off the bat of Matt Kemp. The home-away-from-home fans at Petco Park booed when E5 flashed on the scoreboard, and I wondered whether the Dodgers might lobby for a hit on behalf of Kemp’s pursuit of the triple crown. (Teams have been known to “suggest” scoring changes on occasion… heck, the Padres have done it.)

Apparently the Dodgers visited the official scorer, but his original, correct ruling stood. Such are the battles one wages when there is nothing meaningful left to fight.

* * *

Speaking of Kershaw and Cunningham, both appear in my latest at Baseball Prospectus ($), which examines the impact the 2006 draft has had on this year’s NL West race. Cunningham is incidental to the story, but Kershaw is one of three first-round picks from 2006 who are excelling in the division this year. (San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum and Arizona’s Ian Kennedy are the others.)

The Padres swung and missed with their first pick (Matt Antonelli), but landed Mat Latos in the 11th round. That has worked out well.

* * *

Latos was on his game Monday night. He carried a no-hitter into the sixth, eventually losing it when opposing pitcher Casey Coleman (son of Joe Coleman, third player ever picked in the MLB draft and winner of 142 games; grandson of another Joe Coleman, winner of 52 more) pulled a Bob Knepper on him, tripling to right-center with one out.

The Padres scored their only two runs in the bottom half, with Will Venable’s leadoff homer to dead center (he really went down and got that pitch) accounting for all the offense Latos, Chad Qualls, and Heath Bell would need. Mark Grant suggested that Coleman may have been tired from running the bases. Whatever the case, it worked for the Padres, who have climbed into a tie with the Cubs for second worst record in the National League.

The Astros are hopelessly out of reach, but San Diego could finish in a tie for eighth place if they win their final two games and get a little help. Such are the battles one wages…

Team     W  L  Pct  RS  RA Dif
Rockies 72 88 .450 729 764 -35
Pirates 72 88 .450 603 699 -96
Marlins 71 89 .444 621 697 -76
Cubs    70 90 .438 646 745 -99
Padres  70 90 .438 582 603 -21

Three things:

• That is some fierce competition.
• Where would Pittsburgh be without Ryan Ludwick?
• Among horrible teams, the Padres have the best run differential.

Oh yeah, and Latos ended up tying a season high with nine strikeouts. He has done that twice this year… in each of his last two starts, in fact.

Cory Luebke has fanned nine batters three different times in 2011. Dustin Moseley and Tim Stauffer did it once each.

Only one Padres pitcher has cracked double digits in strikeouts, and that didn’t happen until Game 156. But you already know that because I mentioned it several paragraphs ago.

Yep, Wade LeBlanc.

When people ask you what kind of year the Padres have had, just tell them that Alberto Gonzalez started a game at first base, Jason Bartlett leads the team in hits, and LeBlanc owns the single-game high in strikeouts. That is more descriptive than 90 losses ever could be.

* * *

We’re headed out to our final game of the season tonight. Anthony Bass gets another start, which is good. I’d like to see him be a part of next year’s rotation… or at least notch more strikeouts in a game than LeBlanc.

This is always a bittersweet time for me. The baseball season is such a grind, and I am so busy trying to keep up with everything all summer that it becomes a giant blur and I seldom have time to enjoy the actual experience. But the moment it’s over, I miss it like hell.

Opening Day seems impossibly distant from me now. Soon, it will all fade like 1994, relegated to some forgotten notebook.

Yeah, well. There you go…

The Padres now head home for three against the Dodgers this weekend, three against the Cubs next week, and a whole winter to figure out what went wrong and how to fix it. Meanwhile, we’ve got links…

• Gunslinger’s triumph (Inside the Padres). If Kevin Towers deserves credit for the success of this year’s Diamondbacks (and he does), Jed Hoyer deserves the same for last year’s Padres. I wonder how forgiving folks will be if Towers’ team should stumble in 2012?
• New SABR Stat: Baseball God Factor (BGF) (Mop-Up Duty). Interesting things happen when you stick players out of position.
• Ghosts of MVPs Past (Baseball Prospectus). This is a wonderful read. Also, I had no idea Charlie Montoyo (whose existence I learned about while riffling through a book I bought many years ago in San Luis Obispo) was still in baseball. The man who drew 156 walks in 132 California League games in 1988 is now managing the Durham Bulls (a team I saw on my way to Tony Gwynn’s Hall of Fame induction).
• Alfonzo suspended 100 games for PED use (MLB.com). Former Padres catcher Eliezer Alfonzo (career .240/.271/.377 hitter in 624 PA) reminds us that steroids, in and of themselves, don’t make you a good baseball player. [h/t BBTF]
• Brach beat long odds to reach Padres’ bullpen (Padres.com). I continue have my doubts about the former 42nd round pick, but as ever, I hope he proves me wrong.
• Layin’ Down The Law: Keith Law on Scouts, Ricciardi and his Departure (Drunk Jays Fans). Here’s more insight into the Michael Lewis vs Keith Law thing that happened last week. What I like about Law’s comments is that they reflect the fact that he and his outlook have changed a great deal in a decade. This to me is a sign of growth and wisdom. Foolish consistencies, hobgoblins, and what have you… [h/t BBTF]
• Marlins’ Logan Morrison files grievance (ESPN). Good for Morrison. As for the Marlins, I’m sure we would expect no less from a team owned by Jeffrey Loria. Hey, it could be worse; they could have a hideous new logo…
• World Cup/Pan Am roster announced (USA Baseball). Current Padres farmhand Matt Clark and ex-Padre Randy Williams are among those named to the roster. [h/t BBTF]
• 15,000 days since Spiezio ruins Gibson’s perfecto (Hardball Times). Chris Jaffe reminds us that the Padres did something good in 1970. Not getting no-hit qualifies as “good,” right? When all else fails, lower your standards. Jaffe also reminds us that Jimmy Jones came within a Bob Knepper triple of throwing a perfect game in his big-league debut. Bob Knepper Triple would make a good name for a band.
• Padres’ radio and TV deals taking time (North County Times). Take as much time as you need, just get it right.
• Wally Yonamine and the Integration of Japanese Baseball (Seamheads). The late, great Yonamine retains folk-hero status in Hawai’i.
• Top Historic Collapses in Baseball History (Cool Standings). This list runs 256 deep, and the Padres are represented three times: 2007 (no. 18), 1985 (no. 101), and 2004 (no. 254). Notice a certain team from last year missing? [h/t BBTF]
• More Than You Ever Wanted to Know About 1-0 Games (Retrosheet). Current/former Padres Greg Maddux, Gaylord Perry, Trevor Hoffman, Mike Adams, and Heath Bell show up here, as does the late Dave Smith, a San Diego native. [h/t reader Didi]
• Ted Williams’s .406 Is More Than a Number (New York Times). This is a good read, although it contains one glaring error: “No one, in fact, has hit higher than .390, and that was 31 years ago.” One man has, and that was 17 years ago. Assuming the rest of the facts are correct, there are some real gems here, with perhaps my favorite being that Williams’ “longest hitless stretch was seven at-bats” in 1941. Damn. [h/t reader parlo]
• Well, What WOULD You Do? (Padres Trail). Mike starts planning for next year. I hope Jeremy Hermida is part of the 2012 club. He’s still so young.
• Mo and Boch (Inside the Padres). Tom Krasovic discusses Bruce Bochy’s decision to use Andy Sheets over John Vander Wal as a pinch-hitter against Mariano Rivera in Game 3 of the 1998 World Series:
  

  It took guts use Vander Wal as a pinch-runner and Sheets as a pinch-hitter, but good managers are willing to make moves that will bring them scorn if they don’t work out.”

  Vander Wal’s career line: .261/.351/.441, 104 OPS+. Sheets’ career line: .216/.271/.321, 56 OPS+. Well, I suppose “guts” is one word for it…

• The Unlikely Success of Cory Luebke (Baseball Nation). Marc Normandin notes that Luebke’s slider is slightly devastating, which helps explain why lefties are hitting .160/.229/.198 against him.
• A Discussion About Evaluating Pitchers (FanGraphs). Keep talking; that’s how we make progress…
• Removing the Mask (Baseball Prospectus). Former Padres catcher Yorvit Torrealba ranks among the best in MLB at “saving runs for their team by getting extra strike calls at the edge of the zone” from 2007 to 2011, while current Padres backstop Nick Hundley ranks among the worst. Good thing he picked up his offense this year, eh? Seriously, this is fascinating work by Mike Fast with potentially far-reaching implications.

The only blemish was a two-run homer to dead center off the bat of Rockies second baseman Mark Ellis. Luebke fell behind in the count, 3-1, and then grooved a fastball out over the plate that Ellis crushed.

Luebke worked from behind for much of the game. He went to three-ball counts on each of the first three batters he faced and 10 of 25 overall on the night. Twice he fell behind San Diego native Ty Wigginton, 3-0, and came back to strike him out. Although such feats are impressive in their way, they also caused Luebke to burn through 119 pitches in 7 innings.

Ellis, for his part, joins a short list of individuals who have ruined a potential Padres no-hitter with a home run. There have been five:

Date     Opp Pitcher     Batter
9/18/71  @SF Clay Kirby  Willie McCovey
4/10/89  Atl Bruce Hurst Lonnie Smith
9/22/06  Pit Chris Young Joe Randa
7/29/09 @Cin Mat Latos   Jerry Hairston Jr.
9/19/11 @Col Cory Luebke Mark Ellis

I was at the Randa game. The guy next to me kept yelling in my ear that Young was throwing a no-hitter. Maybe he thought my lack of reaction meant I didn’t understand the significance of such an event, but of course, I just wanted him to stop talking about no-hitters. I probably should have acknowledged him sooner.

Young’s game came a couple days before Trevor Hoffman broke Lee Smith’s career saves mark. The Padres were headed to the playoffs for the second straight season. Those were good times.

Sometimes I wonder what might have happened had the Padres hung on in 2007 and/or 2010. It could have altered San Diegans’ perception of their team. Then again, maybe not. We will never know. But we will have good times again…

* * *

My latest at Baseball Prospectus ($) focuses on Rockies right-hander Aaron Cook but includes a fun tidbit about Padres southpaw Wade LeBlanc, who is the all-time single-season srikeout leader among pitchers born in Lake Charles, Louisiana. Lest you think I am offering LeBlanc a backhanded compliment, consider that one of those pitchers, Ted Lyons, is in the Hall of Fame.

Lyons is ranked 43rd among pitchers in The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. James cites Lyons as MLB’s best pitcher of 1927 and also notes that the right-hander went to Baylor on a trombone scholarship that didn’t work out as planned:

…at a football game againt Texas A&M a fight broke out, and Lyons put down his trombone to participate in the fight. His trombone was crushed in the melee, and Lyons lost his scholarship.

That is unfortunate, although enshrinement in Cooperstown makes for a nice consolation prize. LeBlanc should be so lucky…

Well, now you do. And you also have links…

• DePodesta, scouting (Inside the Padres). I saw this a while ago, then promptly forgot to tell you about it. There’s a lot of good stuff in here, including this quote from DePo:
  

  Most of the time when I go to the park, I try not to look at the stats until after the fact, and then see whether or not what I saw with my own eyes agrees with what the page says.

  If the clips I’ve seen are any indication, I can’t imagine Jonah Hill’s character in the Moneyball movie taking such an approach. [h/t reader Didi]

• Toronto 2011 Review: MONEYBALL – Brad Pitt’s Entertaining Baseball Romp (WhatCulture!). One reviewer, not a sports fan by any stretch, enjoyed the movie. Aaron Gleeman and Jon Weisman offer similarly favorable reviews, while Keith Law checks in with a dissenting opinion, calling it “an absolute mess of a film” (which in turn elicited a response from Michael Lewis, who was — Caruso pause — blindsided by Law’s comments. [h/t BBTF]
• Ems’ title dreams Krushed (Eugene Register-Guard). The Padres’ Short-Season Class-A affiliate got bumped from the Midwest Northwest League playoffs, through no fault of shortstop Jace Peterson. (Double-A San Antonio, meanwhile, scored four in the ninth to win Game 1 of the Texas League Championship Series, 5-4. Jaff Decker’s two-run homer to right tied the game, and Jason Hagerty’s bases-loaded walk won it. The Missions needed 20 innings to win Game 2 and look to complete the sweep Friday night in Little Rock.)
• Tucson Padres: With time on their side, Padres turn attention to ’12 (Arizona Daily Star). The Padres’ Triple-A affiliate, their lone full-season farm team that didn’t reach the post-season, ranked last in the PCL in attendance. Then again, as GM Mike Feder points out, “We didn’t even have a hat until March.” Beyond that, Feder has to deal with fan apathy… which helps prepare players for San Diego.
• TinCaps Notebook (MadFriars). Our pal John Conniff delivers the goods on Cory Spangenberg, Rymer Liriano, Keyvius Sampson, and more. Conniff notes that Liriano remains a “work in progress,” but that the toolsy outfielder “has come a very long way in harnessing his immense athletic ability into a truly exciting baseball skill set.”
• Padres hope to lock in Maybin (Replacement Level Baseball). Yes, please… Meanwhile, the folks at Replacement Level Baseball wonder what he might be worth. Tom Krasovic offers thoughts of his own.
• “Mixed feelings” (Inside the Padres). Kras also chats with former Diamondbacks GM and current Padres front office staffer Josh Byrnes. Dan Hayes at the North County Times does the same with former D’backs skipper and current Padres front office staffer A.J. Hinch.
• Marcos Breton: Lessons Miguel Tejada taught me (Sacramento Bee). Breton, who authored a biography of the former Padres shortstop, discusses the danger a reporter faces in getting too close to one’s subject. [h/t Baseball Nation]
• Why Couldn’t I Buy A Dodger Hat at Dodger Stadium? (Pitchers & Poets). New ownership, please. [h/t BBTF]
• Feline Intervention (Baseball Prospectus). As Norm MacDonald says, “It’s about actual cats.” Guest author Dan McQuade delivers the funny: “I’ll play Voros McCracken here and posit that a cat has no control over when it runs on the field; indeed, most of the cats that show up on baseball fields are scared and immediately want to escape.”
• Umpires show ethnic bias in ball/strike calls-unless they’re feeling watched (Ars Technica). Hmmm… [h/t BBTF]
• San Diego Padres Terrible Season Emergency Kit (Gaslamp Ball). Dex helps get us through the tough times. He also shares his thoughts on Moneyball… or something.
• Thoughts about American Tennis (Joe Blogs). If I ever stopped writing about baseball, one subject — along with music and travel — I’d be interested in covering would be tennis. But Joe Posnanski kills there, too, so what could I add? (Pos is also pretty good at that baseball thing…)
• 2011 Arizona Fall League Roster Review: Peoria Javelinas (Minor League Ball). John Sickels highlights a few of the Padres’ representatives, namely RHP Miles Mikolas, C Jason Hagerty, 3B Jedd Gyorko, and 3B/OF James Darnell. [h/t reader Didi]
• Does Trevor Hoffman deserve a Hall of Fame nod? (Fat Lady). Somehow, this is still open to debate for some people.
• How historic is Craig Kimbrel’s season? (SweetSpot). David Schoenfield reminds us that Hoffman’s 1998 season was pretty awesome. [h/t reader Didi]
• The Juan Pierre All-Stars (Hardball Times). Chris Jaffe gives us yet another fun list. Former Padres Jim Presley (yep, he played here), Dave Kingman, and Bob Tewksbury make the cut, as does San Diego Mesa College alum Greg Minton.
• Hudson’s charity has him up for Clemente (Padres.com). Padres second baseman Orlando Hudson gives back to the community. David Laurila chats with the man, who knows his baseball history.
• Seamheads.com Launches Negro Leagues Database Powered by The Baseball Gauge (Seamheads). Damn, this is fantastic. How good was Oscar Charleston? Well, he hit .375/.435/.676 in 1922, and that wasn’t even close to his best season. Have fun!

For much of the season, Stauffer has been one of the few bright spots on this team, showing that his 2010 performance was no fluke, while also helping to remove any lingering doubts about his ability to pitch at this level and stay healthy. Then he started getting pounded:

Dates    GS  BF    IP  ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9
3/31-8/3 23 597 143.0 2.96 8.7  0.5  2.5 6.5
8/8-9/10  7 157  36.0 7.50 9.5  3.0  3.5 4.5

Opponents were hitting .258/.316/.376 against Stauffer through his August 6 start against the Dodgers. Since then, they have hit .271/.340/.579. That is roughly the difference between Jerry Hairston Jr. and Juan Gonzalez.

Stauffer says he feels fine, and after all he’s been through, he should know. At the same time, these numbers tell the tale of a guy missing badly with location, which is not Stauffer’s game. His stuff is good, certainly better than it was when he first arrived in 2005, but not good enough that he can get away with substandard command.

Stauffer has set career highs in games started, batters faced, and innings pitched this year. In fact, he has made as many starts in 2011 as he did from 2008 to 2010 combined. Here’s a look at his complete yearly workload numbers, including minor leagues:

Year Age GS  BF    IP
2004  22 28 694 168.0
2005  23 27 687 136.1
2006  24 27 724 159.0
2007  25 22 617 138.1
2008  26  0   0   0.0
2009  27 18 490 115.0
2010  28 12 411 100.1
2011  29 30 754 179.0

I don’t happen to believe in a certain “effect” named for a certain sportswriter who has a theory about such things, but I do wonder if maybe Stauffer has run out of gas. Between his usage pattern over the past few years and his complete loss of effectiveness in recent weeks, it’s difficult to reach any other conclusion.

If it were my call, I’d thank Stauffer for his efforts, explain that he’s done nothing wrong, and sit him down for the rest of the year. He isn’t helping the team, nor is he helping himself. Sitting Stauffer has the added benefit of giving Anthony Bass, who should be a legitimate contender for a spot in next year’s rotation, a chance to show what he can do in that role.

But it isn’t my call, so like you, I watch and wait… and hope the Padres do the right thing.

A man walks along the side of the road, carrying a backpack and a sign that reads, “Jesus Loves You.” He stops at the back corner of a Wal-Mart parking lot, wearing dress slacks and a long sleeve shirt, and begins singing and playing a guitar for no one. It is nearly 100 degrees outside.

Silly fellow. He should have stayed home and read links instead…

• Framing Ball Four to Cano (Baseball Prospectus). Mike Fast examines the impact of how a catcher receives the pitch on an umpire’s decision to call a strike or a ball. Fast also muses on the plate umpire’s positioning and checks in from the recently concluded PITCHf/x Summit 2011 (as does Eno Sarris).
• More Chernoffs (Hardball Times). These are a guilty pleasure of mine, as are player anagrams.
• 10 things I didn’t know about managerial match-ups (Hardball Times). Chris Jaffe delves into… well, what the title says. He learns, among other fascinating tidbits, that Chuck Tanner and former Padres skipper Dick Williams faced each other 218 times in their respective careers.
• Who’s got the Golden Gun? (SweetSpot). In addition to enjoying a breakout offensive season, Nick Hundley has done a good job of controlling the running game this year.
• Pete Rose and the San Diego Padres (Lob Shots). Rose is wearing a Padres cap. In fact, he almost played for the PCL Padres in 1962. The things you learn…
• Tigers’ Jackson best on D in August (SweetSpot). Cameron Maybin excelled with the glove in August. So did Kyle Blanks. Wait, what? Yep, Blanks is a better defender than many people realize. I am continually impressed by his reads in left field.
• Q&A: Mike Easler: The Hit Man Talks Hitters (FanGraphs). David Laurila’s chat with the former big leaguer is a compelling read for many reasons, not the least of which is that Easler, who did some damage with the bat in his day, refers to Dwight Evans (.272/.370/.470, 127 OPS+, 2446 H, 385 HR) as a “mistake hitter” and Tony Armas (.252/.287/.453, 103 OPS+, 1302 H, 251 HR) as a “great hitter.” Laurila also has a chat with Ken Singleton that is worth reading.
• Adrian Beltré Sets Record Of Sorts; Is He Heading For Cooperstown? (Baseball Nation). Beltre has had a better career — and is younger — than you might think.
• Moneyball: Q&A with Rob Neyer (Rogers Sportsnet). I don’t count myself among the legions who adore Moneyball; it was entertaining but didn’t influence my thinking in any meaningful way. The sabermetric stuff was a bit watered down for my taste, but I did enjoy some of the stories… particularly those about Chad Bradford and Scott Hatteberg. Still, there is no denying that the book has touched a great many people and gotten them more interested in baseball, which is a good thing.
• Is WAR the new RBI? (It’s About the Money, Stupid). This looks like an interesting read, if a bit long (nearly 2,400 words). Rob Neyer offers his critique, while Sean Forman has questions of his own.
• Zach Stewart’s game recalls Jimmy Jones (SweetSpot). There but for a Bob Knepper (!) triple went former Padres right-hander (and current San Antonio Missions pitching coach) Jimmy Jones’ shot at immortality… in Jones’ big-league debut no less.
• Snapshot: 2012 Draft (Inside the Padres). Tom Krasovic identifies some potential targets for the Padres, including Arizona State shortstop Drew Marrero and Los Angeles area high school right-hander Lucas Giolito. Kras also discusses current Padres outfield prospect Rymer Liriano, whom one scout likens to former big leaguer Raul Mondesi.
• Statistics and Stories (Joe Blogs). The obligatory Pos contains this gem:
  

  Most athletes are like this. They either cannot or will not let us inside… How much do you think Mariano Rivera can express what is going through his mind? I’m a writer and I don’t think I can express what was going through my mind when, say, I wrote the last paragraph.

  I was watching the U.S. Open the other night — Caroline Wozniacki and Svetlana Kuznetsova. The first two sets were scintillating, but the commentators — all former players — couldn’t stop talking nonsense about passion and will. Every once in a great while, they would touch on footwork (Kuznetsova was exhausted by third set and pretty much using only her upper body) or something of actual substance, but usually not.

• Stephen Strasburg Shines In Comeback (Baseball Nation). Former SDSU right-hander Stephen Strasburg made his first big-league start of 2012 following last year’s elbow surgery and pitched well. My days of following Strasburg closely ended the night I watched him toss a no-hitter in his final game at Tony Gwynn Stadium, but it’s good to see him back in action. More coverage everywhere.
• Fun with Adrian (Inside the Padres). I don’t buy the line that Adrian Gonzalez’s departure caused a domino effect. As I’ve noted on more than one occasion, the Padres lost 99 games with him here in 2008 and they won’t be that bad this year. I do agree, however, with this statement:
  

  Defensively, he emboldened other infielders. Third baseman Chase Headley, for one, looked rattled this year after Brad Hawpe failed to snag throws that Gonzalez likely would’ve caught.

  At one point I started to study this but never finished. I seem to recall that the Padres committed fewer throwing errors during Adrian’s stay in San Diego than they did before he arrived. Maybe one of these days, if I’m feeling more motivated than I feel right now, I’ll do some more digging.

• The 2011 Scouting Report (The Book). Tom Tango is doing his thing again and needs your help. As in most things, the Padres are woefully underrepresented. Go fix that.
• Coming soon to a theatre near you: the Steve Delabar story (Mariners Blog). Delabar, a former Padres draftee who was coaching high school baseball in April, has been recalled by the Mariners. [h/t BBTF]
• Joe Louis Reliford (JockBio). This is a fantastic interview with a former batboy who, in 1952, appeared in a professional baseball game at age 12. [h/t SABR-L]
• 9 Forgotten Players from Defunct Franchises (Baseball Prospectus). These group projects are always fun. My entry is on Clyde Milan, who played center field for the Washington Senators from 1907 to 1922. He roomed with Walter Johnson for 14 years and once held the single-season stolen base record later broken by Ty Cobb.

Towers had this down to an art. And like many artists, he excelled by embracing the constraints placed upon him by circumstance. Rather than complain about the color of his paint, he set out to make something beautiful with what he had. He is doing it again this year in Arizona, as Hoyer did last year in San Diego.

This year, Hoyer’s moves haven’t worked so well. Where Jerry Hairston Jr. and Yorvit Torrealba became surprisingly useful cogs in a surprisingly productive machine, Brad Hawpe and Jorge Cantu did nothing… or worse.

Still, not everything Hoyer touched has turned to lead. The acquisition of Cameron Maybin was a fleecing — not on the order of the trade that brought Adrian Gonzalez to San Diego, but a fleecing nonetheless. On a smaller scale, Chad Qualls — despite occasional implosions — has done a nice impersonation of Edward Mujica (whom the Padres surrendered in the Maybin deal):

Pitcher Year  G   IP ERA+
Mujica  2010 59 69.2 102
Qualls  2011 68 66.0 105

Mujica has gone onto greater things in Miami. Good for him, but as Qualls has demonstrated, Mujica was replaceable.

More importantly, we have reached a point in the season where the Padres must focus on making evaluations for next year. It’s audition time in San Diego, and Hoyer is bringing in as many warm bodies as possible to fill the available roles.

While fans have largely lost whatever hope/interest they may have had, Hoyer continues to watch for and pick up discarded scraps. Within the past week, he has claimed outfielder Jeremy Hermida (Reds), right-hander Jeff Fulchino (Astros), and right-hander Andrew Carpenter (Phillies) off waivers in the hope that one or more of them turns out to be a big-league player.

And while Fulchino seems closer to Ricky Stone than to Linebrink, and Long Beach State alum Carpenter’s greatest claim to fame lies in providing the Phillies with a daily reminder that they should have ventured further south with their second-round pick in 2006 (Vista HS right-hander Trevor Cahill went to the A’s with the next pick, while SDSU right-hander Justin Masterson went to the Red Sox five picks after Cahill), Hermida might be something. Despite having made his big-league debut in 2005, the former 11th pick overall (2002) is still just 27 years old — he was born 4 1/2 months before Jesus Guzman.

It is possible that Hermida peaked at age 23, when he hit .296/.369/.501 (125 OPS+) for the Marlins in 2007. He followed that with a couple of decent showings (.253/.335/.400, 92 OPS+ in 2008 and 2009 combined) before seeing his game completely deteriorate. Over the past two years, with four different teams, Hermida has hit .208/.260/.340 (61 OPS+). That represents a total of 269 plate appearances and is hardly conclusive, but it doesn’t look good.

Still, once upon a time, Hermida had skills. At age 21, he hit .293/.457/.518 in Double-A. Baseball America rated him the no. 18 prospect before that 2005 campaign, moving him up to no. 4 afterward. (BA‘s 2006 list provides a sobering reminder of how susceptible player development is to any number of seen and unseen forces — the prospects ahead of Hermida were Brandon Wood, Justin Upton, and Delmon Young.)

From the Baseball America Prospect Handbook 2004:

Some scouts called Hermida the best high school hitter since Eric Chavez. Others saw a young Andy Van Slyke or Paul O’Neill. Hermida himself identified more with Shawn Green. Whichever comparison you prefer, there’s no denying his polished hitting approach and advanced maturity.

Similar comments appear in the 2003, 2005, and 2006 versions. Hermida was an elite prospect, and although Sean Burroughs and Ruben Rivera remind us that this guarantees nothing, I can think of worse guys to take a flier on than someone who hit with power at age 23 in an environment that stifles offense.

Hermida might not be anything. In fact, there’s a good chance that he isn’t, that his best years are behind him. But you never know. Phil Nevin was older than Hermida when Towers acquired Nevin from the Tigers Angels for Andy Sheets in March 1999. If Hermida suddenly remembers how to crush baseballs, great; if not, the Padres gave up nothing to get him. Either way, it’s encouraging to know that Hoyer is still paying attention even when many of us no longer are.

* * *

Speaking of Towers, his Diamondbacks are slithering toward the NL West title. One of the reasons for his club’s success this year, which I consider in my latest at Baseball Prospectus ($), is its domination of weak teams.

Through Sunday’s games, Arizona owned a 60-34 record against sub-.500 teams, while San Francisco checked in at 47-45. If the Giants fail to defend their World Series title, an inability to beat the clubs they were supposed to beat (they have an aggregate losing record against the five worst teams in the league) will have been a large part of the reason why.

• Ethical Bandwagon Jumping (Baseball Prospectus). Root for the Brewers; they already look like the Padres anyway… or vice versa. If you’re a fan of one team, you’re a fan of the other; come, let us not speak of Tony Gwynn Jr.
• Best closer ever? Try Trevor Hoffman (ESPN). I cringed when Ted Leitner made this claim during Hoffman’s retirement ceremony. Predictably (and justifiably), Yankees fans are taking offense. Mariano Rivera is the best closer ever, but — and this is the important part — Rivera’s achievements in no way diminish what Hoffman did in his career. So we can stop with the pissing contest already. [h/t BBTF]
• Thoughts on Trevor Time – Epilogue (Padres Trail). Mike shares his thoughts on the proceedings. He also reminds us that Cory Luebke has been very good this year… and way under the radar, even by San Diego standards.
• The Use Of Sabermetric Stats Makes Me Uncomfortable (Mop-Up Duty). Callum Hughson offers a thoughtful critique of sabermetrics.
• Texas notes: Gyorko keeps it simple (MiLB.com). Padres third base prospect Jedd Gyorko leads the minor leagues in hits. Gyorko will join Anthony Bass, James Darnell, and four other Padres farmhands in the Arizona Fall League after his current stint with the 90-win San Antonio Missions ends.
• Visualizing 2011 Draft Spending (FanGraphs). Reed MacPhail offers this interesting nugget: “Although the Red Sox, Padres, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, and Rays all ranked near the top of the list in draft spending, given how many picks each team had, none of those teams spent a surprising amount.”
• Maybin has “Say Hey” experience (U-T). Cameron Maybin recently spent some time with Hall-of-Fame center fielder Willie Mays.
• The Art of Scouting: How to Compile a Professional Scouting Report (Beyond the Box Score). What it says… good stuff. [h/t BBTF]
• TYA Interview With Marc Carig (Yankee Analysts). The way information is transmitted — and received — continues to evolve. This is a thoughtful interview that contains some serious gems: “Treasure your fandom, because the more serious you become as a journalist, I find the more you lose the passion that only a fan can truly possess.” [h/t BBTF]
• Flanagan, a memorable man (ESPN). Former big-league left-hander Mike Flanagan, most known for his work with the Baltimore Orioles in the 1970s and ’80s, died on August 24. Tim Kurkjian reflects on Flanagan’s death, as do many others. Joe Posnanski pays tribute by remembering other crafty southpaws. My condolences to the family and friends of Mike Flanagan. [h/t reader Didi]
• Q&A with SaberWizard Tom Tango (Beyond the Box Score). Tango reminds us, among other things, that we should “try to understand why a team is doing what it’s doing: use their perspective, rather than use your own perspective as to why something is good or bad.”
• It’s not you, it’s me (Watson Files). I missed this earlier, but Dan Watson is no longer radio voice of the Fort Wayne TinCaps. It’s his choice… and our loss. Best of luck to Dan in his new role covering all manner of sports in Columbus, Ohio.
• What is Will Venable? (Inside the Padres). Venable will always frustrate observers because his physical gifts suggest greatness and he is merely a good baseball player. There is a disconnect between what he is and what our minds tell us he might be, which is unfortunate for Venable and for us.
• A look at team baserunning (SweetSpot). As you know, the Padres excel at running the bases. Christina Kahrl quantifies it for us.
• Standout Rookies We Didn’t See Coming (Baseball Nation). Rob Neyer believes Jesus Guzman’s offensive performance might not be a fluke. So does John Sickels. Guzman probably isn’t this good, but he can hit. Field? Not so much. [h/t reader Didi]
• Minor League Update: Open Thread Of Prospect Talk (Baseball Prospectus). Kevin Goldstein responds to reader questions about prospects, including the Padres’ Anthony Rizzo: “I still believe in him as a good every day first baseman with power and patience.” He also likes Rymer Liriano and Keyvius Sampson.
• A Midsummer Visit To The Baseball Hall of Fame (Padres, Chargers, Illini Blog). Who doesn’t love a good road trip to Cooperstown, especially one that includes a stop at Ommegang Brewery?
• Don’t blink (Inside the Padres). Tom Krasovic wonders if scouts have underestimated Austin Hedges’ offensive abilities. Here’s hoping…
• Select Your Own Journey – You Be The Manager! (Royals Review). This is probably as much fun as a Royals fan can have right about now. Yeah, like a Padres fan should talk… [h/t BBTF]

If you’ve been following along, you know that my pet comps for Hundley are Ron Karkovice, Jason LaRue, and maybe Mike Macfarlane if I’m feeling extra confident. I recently ran more numbers and found more names.

This time I searched at Baseball-Reference using the following criteria:

• Since 1901
• Through age 27 season
• 50 percent of games at catcher
• OBP between .299 and .319
• SLG between .397 and .417
• Minimum 1000 career plate appearances

Acknowledging that Hundley’s age 27 season remains in progress and its final numbers are subject to change, I sorted by OPS+ and got this:

Player                Years   PA   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+
Nick Hundley      2008-2011 1041 .248 .309 .407  99
Gary Alexander    1975-1980 1407 .230 .313 .412  99
Mike Macfarlane   1987-1991 1158 .257 .311 .400  98
Don Slaught       1982-1986 1573 .278 .317 .408  98
Hal Smith         1955-1958 1598 .278 .318 .406  97
Del Crandall      1949-1957 2719 .247 .303 .415  93
Sammy White       1951-1955 2058 .273 .314 .416  91
Mark Salas        1984-1988 1080 .261 .308 .398  90
J. Saltalamacchia 2007-2011 1216 .249 .314 .408  89
Michael Barrett   1998-2004 2485 .260 .316 .409  84
Yorvit Torrealba  2001-2006 1041 .249 .310 .397  82

This doesn’t account for defense but gives us a good starting point. To the individuals:

• Alexander had severe problems making contact (think Jonny Gomes or Carlos Pena), wasn’t much of a catcher, and played his final big-league game at age 28.
• Macfarlane went on to enjoy a 13-year career and is identified in The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract as the 84th best catcher in MLB history.
• Slaught spent parts of 16 seasons in the big leagues and ranks 67th in that same tome. (Bud Black pitched to both Macfarlane and Slaught; someone should ask the skipper what he thinks.)
• Smith played 10 years and had a decent career, but is perhaps best remembered for being part of the eight bazillion player trade that brought Don Larsen (Point Loma High School) to the Yankees from Baltimore. (Larsen was coming off a 3-21 campaign for the Orioles in 1954. He did something kind of famous a couple years later in the World Series.)
• By age 27, Crandall already had a career under his belt that Hundley would do well to duplicate. James ranks Crandall no. 30 among catchers.
• White was a weaker-hitting version of Smith whom James ranks no. 111.
• Salas spent parts of eight seasons in the big leagues but was close to done by age 27 (he hit .201/.274/.356 in 330 PA thereafter).
• Saltalamacchia is still going. He is younger than Hundley but not as good with the glove, and his last name is too long.
• You know Barrett. A remarkable athlete, he was drafted out of high school as a shortstop. Barrett once hit 16 homers in three consecutive seasons and scrapped with his former batterymate Carlos Zambrano, the latter of which led to his June 2007 trade to the Padres.
• You know Torrealba. He has served as a solid backup catcher in the big leagues for a decade, with occasional stretches as a starter. He had a career year in 2010, his only with the Padres.

Which path will Hundley’s career follow? Its own, of course.

What I find most fascinating in this exercise is that it doesn’t take much, relatively speaking, to be ranked among the all-time great catchers. Three of the seven players above whose careers had ended when James wrote his book make the top 100, and a fourth just misses.

Do I expect Hundley to be as good? No, I don’t. At the same time, it’s not as ridiculous a notion as you might think. Still, I’ve set my sights a little lower. I just want Hundley to make it through an entire season healthy. Once he does that, then we can start dreaming of Macfarlane.