Friday Links (14 Dec 07)

Quick word on the book before we get to links. I’ve completed drafts of three chapters; two more are very close to being done, another is at about 40-50%, and I’m just getting started on “2007 in Review.”

On that last point, I’ve gone through the past 14 months or so of blog postings and highlighted some of the most important points. From that, I’ve created a rough outline. Next steps are to flesh everything out, follow up on research inquiries I made several months ago, etc.

The outline is a bit ambitious, and I’m not sure I’ll be able to give everything the attention it’s due, but I shall do my best. To that end, and kind of the point of me telling you all this, we’ll be entering “terse mode” (for those of you who played “Zork” and other such games back in the day) over the next several weeks.

I’ll keep posting every day, but because my focus needs to be on the book right now, sometimes it will be little more than a prompt. Other times, it might be an excerpt of a draft I’m working on at that moment. I’m not sure. I just know that I may not be as “visible” for a while, and… well, now you know, too.

Okay, that wasn’t very quick. Links, anyone?

Mitchell Report

This whole thing disgusts me. So many questions. So many visceral reactions, so few considered responses. I find myself wondering, among many other things, what, if any, impact the recent actions against Marion Jones might have on the course MLB chooses. But mostly I’m just irritated with everyone involved, myself included (hey, every ticket I buy helps support the system).

Finally, for a bit of levity on a Friday, I present the timeless Cindy und Bert (thanks to my friend Alan for the heads-up). Happy happy, yo yo.

Interview: Steve Poltz, Part 5

In Part 4 of our chat with singer/songwriter/Padre fan Steve Poltz poltz.com, Steve talked about Steve Garvey’s homer in the NLCS in ’84, shagging fly balls while Tony Gwynn took batting practice, and more.

In our final segment, Steve discusses his meeting of Ken Caminiti, the heartbreak of watching USD alum Brady Clark struggle in Colorado, and his favorite baseball movies.

***

Ducksnorts: How about the ’98 team?

Steve Poltz: Back in ’98, Kevin Brown did it all. He was such a gamer; I f***in’ loved that guy… [Ken] Caminiti, down in Mexico getting an IV… I have a memory of him driving on his motorcycle at Windansea — that was the year I knew the whole team pretty well. I remember him walking up to the deck at Windansea where I live, where I’ve lived for 19 years, and shaking my hand. Dude, that guy was larger than f***in’ life. He was badass.

[We ramble about Caminiti and Padres history.]

SP: I’ve been predicting the Rockies will get swept [in the World Series]. I’ve been saying, “I’ll tell you what’s going to happen. The Rockies are going to get to the World Series and remember, ‘Oh, wait, we’re the Colorado Rockies; we’re a fourth-place team that got hot.’” I told my friends that and they’re laughing; I’m hoping for a sweep so I can say, “I told you so.”

[Ed note: The Rockies were down to the Red Sox, 2-0, when this interview took place; they did get swept.]

I’ve seen that happen so many times, where a team gets hot — with the Padres against the Yankees [in '98], and in 1984 [against the Detroit Tigers]. Those were two of the greatest teams we lost to, those ’84 Tigers and ’98 Yankees.

DS: Both of those teams were unstoppable.

[Waitress stops by to check on us; Steve raves about his pork chop and orders us homemade ice cream sandwiches for dessert.]

DS: I hate to ask, but as a fellow USD grad, how painful was it to watch Brady Clark struggle in center field in that final game?

SP: It hurt so bad. I was at the game when we lost our left fielder and our center fielder. That was one of the weirdest things ever. I was saying [to my girlfriend], “That guy [Clark] went to USD, my alma mater; it’s okay, honey, we’ll still be all right.”

Brady Clark looked scared, and it broke my heart. They don’t want that to happen.

My favorite player this year was a guy that everybody would always rip on at Ducksnorts, [Geoff] Blum. I love that guy, and I was, like… everybody’s so harsh on him. What did they call him?

DS: “Silent L.”

SP: How come? What’s “L”? Is that for “Loser”?

DS: If you take the “l” out of “Blum,” you’re left with “bum.”

SP: Oh, wow; that’s genius… It’s so funny, I always thought that OG meant “Original Giles” and NOG meant “Non-Original Giles.” I laughed so hard when I saw “Orange Giles.”

I am such a fan of Ducksnorts. Next year I’m going to post. I’m going to get the courage up.

DS: Do it; you’re among friends.

SP: I’m so obsessed with the web site that after a game, in the morning, if I haven’t seen the game — I’m on the road, playing a show — I’ll read the comments of what people were saying during the game.

DS: Wow… Shifting gears, if you were GM for a day and you could make one move to help the club, what would it be?

SP: This would be selfish, because I love this player, but I’d do anything to get Eric Byrnes on the Padres. I love his hustle. He’s a freak. I want a guy with that kind of energy. I want gamers on my team. Do you like Eric Byrnes, or does he bug you?

DS: He bugs me when he plays the Padres, which means I like him. Dave Roberts used to do that to me before he came here.

SP: Yeah… Did you ever write on Ducksnorts about how they would call Dave Roberts “The Doctor” and what the song, “Dr. Roberts” is about? There’s a Beatles song, “Dr. Roberts,” about a guy who prescribes amphetamines.

[Ed note: This interview took place before Mike Cameron's suspension.]

DS: Final question. What is your favorite baseball movie?

SP: I love Bull Durham. It’s such an obvious answer. I really liked 61, the one that just came out. I love The Natural and A League of Their Own — that movie made me cry.

I’m a big fan of Bad News Bears — the original, with Walter Matthau. I like The Rookie, and I loved Major LeagueField of Dreams was amazing.

The best baseball book I ever read — David James Duncan wrote this book called The Brothers K. He was a big fan of Dostoevsky, so it’s sort of an homage to The Brothers Karamazov. This is the best book I’ve ever read. [It] deals with religion, which has been a big theme in my life, baseball and war.

DS: Cool, I’ll have to check that out sometime.

Thanks again to Steve Poltz for taking time out of his busy schedule to chat with us. Be sure to visit his web site at poltz.com to learn more about his new CDs, Traveling and Unraveling. And if you’re in town and looking for a good place to eat, drink, and otherwise hang out, give Starlite a shot. Tell ‘em Ducksnorts sent you.

Black vs Bochy

I picked up the Bill James Handbook 2008 (aff link), and as always, it’s got all kinds of good stuff inside. Among other things, it contains detailed information on managers and their tendencies. Seeing as how the Padres had a new one of those in ’07 (Bud Black for those just coming out of a coma), I thought it might be instructive to compare him with his predecessor (Bruce Bochy for those… oh, never mind).

Season Ticket Holders Night

The winter season ticket holder event took place at Petco Park on Tuesday night. Tales of the Heliosphere has details here, here, and here (hat tip to Gaslamp Ball).

Quick caveat before we get too far into this. We have exactly one year’s worth of data for Black, so it’s hard to call any of what he did “tendencies” just yet. Still, it’s what we have, so we’ll use it.

To the tables (numbers in bold denote league leader):

Lineups and Substitutions
Mgr Yr LUp PL% PH PR DS
Key: LUp, number of different lineups used; PL%, percentage of players who had the platoon advantage at the start of the game; PH, pinch hitters used; PR, pinch runners used; DS, defensive substitutes used.
Black ’07 115 .62 279 18 13
Bochy ’06 111 .60 264 64 48

We see no appreciable difference in the number of lineups used or frequency with which platooning was employed. The items that stand out here are in those two rightmost columns. Bochy used pinch runners and defensive substitutions a lot more than Black. In 12 seasons as manager of the Padres, Bochy led the league in pinch runners used four times. He also averaged 48 defensive substitutions in his three seasons at Petco Park. Black used the latter strategy less than any other manager in MLB last year.

Pitcher Usage
Mgr Yr Quick Slow LO RCD LS Rel
Key: Quick, quick hooks; Slow, slow hooks; LO, long outings by starting pitchers; RCD, relievers used on consecutive days; LS, long saves; Rel, relievers used. (You’ll need to buy the book to get precise definitions for some of these, but you get the general idea.)
Black ’07 63 28 13 122 0 485
Bochy ’06 42 42 24 111 2 475

This surprises me. It often seemed as though Black stuck with his starters (especially the old guys) too long, but reality indicates otherwise. Black was more protective of his starting pitchers and a little more liberal in his usage of relievers — at least in his first year — than Bochy. I wonder if this has anything to do with the fact that Black was a starting pitcher for most of his career?

Tactics
Mgr Yr SBA SacA RM PO
Key: SBA, stolen base attempts; SacA, sacrifice bunt attempts; RM, runners moving with the pitch; PO, pitchouts ordered.
Black ’07 79 85 73 56
Bochy ’06 154 77 106 21

The reduction is stolen base attempts is largely a function of the fact that Black didn’t have Josh Barfield and Dave Roberts at his disposal. Sacrifices? Pretty much everyone in the National League (except Clint Hurdle, who never tires of the tactic) bunts the same amount. Black doesn’t get the runners moving as often as Bochy, who was famous for the move. Well, marginally well known for it, anyway. Black loved pitchouts — called more of ‘em than any other manager in baseball. Heck, he called more of ‘em than Bochy did over the span of three full seasons at Petco Park. I would like to see a breakdown of how often Black’s pitchouts were successful. It sure seemed like they didn’t help any. Then again, I’m not even sure why the Padres were pretending to hold runners. When guys are that slow the plate, there’s not much you can do.

Intentional Walks
Mgr Yr # Good NG Bomb
Key: #, intentional walks issued; Good, intentional walks resulting in a good outcome; NG, intentional walks not resulting in a good outcome; Bomb, intentional walks blowing up on the manager. (Again, refer to the book for precise definitions.)
Black ’07 48 28 20 11
Bochy ’06 63 43 20 10

Black didn’t issue as many free passes as Bochy, but they sure came back to bite him more often.

Results
Mgr Yr W L Pct
Key: Seriously, if you have to ask…
Black ’07 89 74 .546
Bochy ’06 88 74 .543

Black ran into an insanely hot Colorado team. Bochy ran into an insanely cold St. Louis club that got hot at the Padres’ expense and won the World Series. Otherwise, not much difference.

Winter Leagues

  • Hermosillo 9, Culiacan 7 (box). Marshall McDougall, batting second and playing second base, went 1-for-5.
  • Mexicali 9, Navojoa 0 (box). Oscar Robles, still at DH, walked in four trips to the plate. Luis Cruz, batting seventh and playing shortstop, went 1-for-4 with a double.
  • Mazatlan 1, Guasave 0 (box). Brian Myrow, batting third and playing first base, drew three walks and laid down a sac bunt (which set up the game’s only run). Yep, the good ol’ 0-for-0.

There it is. Happy Wednesday…

Top 10 Prospects for 2008

Ducksnorts Top 10 ProspectsI’ve shied away from compiling top prospect lists in recent years because it’s my belief that what they best measure are the list-maker’s biases. (Okay, and maybe I’m still feeling a little sheepish about ranking Jake Gautreau ahead of Jason Bay once upon a time.)

Other people like reading prospect lists, though, and I’m not prepared to be a curmudgeon without good cause, so what the hey. My general approach is to balance upside with proximity to the big leagues as best I can, then hope I get lucky.

I’ve seen six of my picks play in person, including four of my top five. For those guys, my evaluations include their statistical record, second-hand reports I’ve read, and personal observations, roughly in that order. The rest get only two-thirds of that equation (duh). For the kids who haven’t yet played full-season ball, I’m relying almost entirely on scouting reports, with a dash of whimsy thrown in because, really, what is a prospect list without a dash of whimsy?

I’m pretty confident that my top two guys will have solid big-league careers. I like the chances of my #3 and #4 prospects as well, although they are further away. After that, the crystal ball gets real cloudy.

Take this list with giant buckets of salt. Comps are described here, league offensive levels can be found here. Enjoy!

10. Edinson Rincon

Biographical Data
Height: 6’1″ DOB: August 11, 1990
Weight: 185 School: Dominican Republic
Bats: Right Acquired: Free Agent, Padres, 2007
Throws: Right
2007 Stats
Level PA BA OBP SLG BB/SO BB/PA ISO XB/H
DSL 141 .295 .383 .402 .654 .121 .107 .250
AZL 53 .178 .302 .200 .636 .132 .022 .125

My crazy pick; pure upside, but so many unknowns. The fact that Rincon was playing pro ball at age 16 is impressive. One blemish: He tested positive for a banned substance during the season. At this point, Rincon’s career could go in so many different directions that it would be foolish to predict any one of them. Watch, and wait…

9. Nick Hundley

Biographical Data
Height: 6’1″ DOB: September 8, 1983
Weight: 210 School: U. of Arizona
Bats: Right Acquired: Drafted 2nd round, Padres, 2005
Throws: Right Comps: Jermaine Dye
2007 Stats
Level PA BA OBP SLG BB/SO BB/PA ISO XB/H
AA 422 .247 .324 .475 .568 .100 .228 .478

Nick HundleyBest advanced in-house candidate to succeed Josh Bard. Although Hundley’s batting average dropped a bit in his second full pro season, his plate discipline and power both have improved as he’s moved up the ladder. Hundley won’t be a star, but he’s a capable defender who should hit enough to become a decent regular. Think Mike Macfarlane.

8. Will Inman

Biographical Data
Height: 6’0″ DOB: February 6, 1987
Weight: 200 School: Tunstall HS, Dry Fork, Va.
Bats: Right Acquired: Trade with Brewers, 2007
Throws: Right
2007 Stats
Level IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
A+ 78.2 1.72 6.41 0.46 2.63 11.21
SOU 39.2 5.45 8.62 1.59 3.63 9.53
TEX 41 4.17 7.49 1.36 4.31 9.08

Good pedigree; needs to show a little more at higher levels. Part of the Scott Linebrink deal, Inman is a smallish right-hander who relies on command for success. His track record in the low minors is outrageous, but he stumbled a bit on first exposure to Double-A. That primarily was a function of elevated home-run and walk rates, which suggests that he wasn’t locating as well as he had in A-ball. More accurately, it suggests that the hitters did a better job of choosing which pitches to offer at and which to let go. That happens at higher levels. The encouraging sign is that Inman’s strikeout rate remained strong. Sure, it dropped a lot, but when you’re starting at such a high level, there’s margin for error. Inman needs more time at Double-A, but if he can re-establish some of the command that he displayed at lower levels, the Padres could have themselves a solid back-end option for 2009.

7. Wade LeBlanc

Biographical Data
Height: 6’3″ DOB: August 7, 1984
Weight: 190 School: U. of Alabama
Bats: Left Acquired: Drafted 2nd round, Padres, 2006
Throws: Left
2007 Stats
Level IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
A+ 92 2.64 7.03 0.49 1.66 8.80
AA 57.1 3.45 7.53 1.26 2.98 8.63

LeBlanc pitched well in his first full season of pro ball. He dominated the California League and didn’t slip much on being promoted to San Antonio. The usual small sample caveats apply, but I’m encouraged by the fact that his strikeout rate held even after moving up a level. The home runs and walks rose a bit, which is cause for some concern, but again, we’re talking about 57 innings worth of data. We’ll get a better idea of LeBlanc’s true level of ability after we’ve seen him work more at higher levels. LeBlanc throws strikes and changes speeds well. He could see action with the big club as early as the second half of 2008 and eventually settle in as a #3 or #4 starter.

6. Kellen Kulbacki

Biographical Data
Height: 5’11″ DOB: November 21, 1985
Weight: 185 School: James Madison U.
Bats: Left Acquired: Drafted 1st round, Padres, 2007
Throws: Left Comps: James Loney
2007 Stats
Level PA BA OBP SLG BB/SO BB/PA ISO XB/H
A- 262 .301 .382 .491 .482 .103 .190 .353

This one’s a reach, but I like his offensive potential. With his combination of power and plate discipline, Kulbacki draws comparisons to Brian Giles and Nick Swisher. Defensively there are questions, though the degree is a matter of debate. Playing a corner outfield spot at Petco Park is more challenging than at most other venues. The good news is that with his bat, even average work with the glove should be enough to keep him gainfully employed. Kulbacki might be the best hitting prospect in the organization. Given his age, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Padres move aggressively with him.

5. Kyle Blanks

Biographical Data
Height: 6’6″ DOB: September 11, 1986
Weight: 270 lbs. School: Moriarty HS, Edgewood, N.M.
Bats: Right Acquired: Drafted 42nd round, Padres, 2004
Throws: Right Comps: James Loney
2007 Stats
Level PA BA OBP SLG BB/SO BB/PA ISO XB/H
A+ 531 .301 .380 .540 .449 .083 .239 .421

Kyle BlanksSometimes called “Gigantor,” Blanks is a mountain of a man. There has been talk that he can play the outfield if needed, but nobody’s ever actually stuck him there. Because of his size, there are concerns about his conditioning. Blanks posted solid numbers in the California League at age 20, which is a good sign. He also improved just about every aspect of his offensive game in 2007 while moving up a level, another good sign. With Adrian Gonzalez entrenched at first base in San Diego, there should be no hurry to move Blanks up the ranks. If he can handle the outfield, great; if not, he could become a trading chip at some point. The power came in 2007; the next step for Blanks should be to tighten his strike zone. Experts have been slow to warm up to Blanks, but I think the kid can play.

4. Cedric Hunter

Biographical Data
Height: 6’0″ DOB: March 10, 1988
Weight: 185 School: King HS, Decatur, Ga.
Bats: Left Acquired: Drafted 3rd round, Padres, 2006
Throws: Left Comps: Shawn Green, Kenny Lofton, Shane Victorino
2007 Stats
Level PA BA OBP SLG BB/SO BB/PA ISO XB/H
A 549 .282 .344 .373 .603 .086 .090 .207
AAA 5 .500 .600 1.250 1.000 .200 .750 .500

Cedric HunterHunter was all the rage after his 2006 showing in the Arizona League. His star fell some last year, although he hasn’t changed much as a prospect. Hunter held his own in the Midwest League — a tough hitting environment — at age 19. There’s no shame in that. The only questions with Hunter are whether he’ll have to move to a corner spot at higher levels and how much power he’ll develop.

3. Mat Latos

Biographical Data
Height: 6’5″ DOB: January 20, 1986
Weight: 210 School: Broward (Fla.) CC
Bats: Right Acquired: Drafted 11th round, Padres, 2006
Throws: Right
2007 Stats
Level IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
A- 56.1 3.83 9.27 0.16 3.51 11.82

A draft-and-follow pick, Latos (pronounced “lay-tos”) is something of an anomaly in the Padres system in that he throws hard. Again, fewer than 60 innings doesn’t give us much to go on, but the high strikeout rate (it’s only short-season ball, but he was competing against older, more experienced players) coupled with predraft scouting reports are cause for hope. Latos has better upside than any other pitcher in the organization, and it’s not even close. He’ll make his full-season debut in 2008 season at age 20. If he can stay healthy and grow up a little (his maturity has been questioned, which isn’t surprising at that age), Latos could develop into a front-line starter for the Padres, which would be welcome in an organization that features mostly back-end types.

2. Matt Antonelli

Biographical Data
Height: 6’0″ DOB: April 8, 1985
Weight: 203 School: Wake Forest U.
Bats: Right Acquired: Drafted 1st round, Padres, 2006
Throws: Right Comps: Manny Ramirez, B.J. Upton
2007 Stats
Level PA BA OBP SLG BB/SO BB/PA ISO XB/H
A+ 406 .314 .409 .499 .914 .131 .185 .294
AA 223 .294 .395 .476 .833 .135 .182 .345

Matt AntonelliHe’s really more like 1A. The comps are for Antonelli’s time in the California League, although his numbers relative to league are virtually the same at Double-A. Antonelli reminds me of Bill Doran, who played second base for the Astros back in the mid-’80s. Good mix of on-base skills and gaps power. Antonelli hit zero home runs in his first exposure to pro ball before knocking 21 last year. My suspicion is that the truth lies somewhere between those two extremes and that whatever power Antonelli has might not manifest itself in the form of home runs at the big-league level right away, especially if he is pushed into a starting role to open the 2008 season. There’s plenty of talent here, but be patient.

1. Chase Headley

Biographical Data
Height: 6’2″ DOB: May 9, 1984
Weight: 195 School: U. of Tennessee
Bats: Both Acquired: Drafted 2nd round, Padres, 2005
Throws: Right Comps: Chipper Jones
2007 Stats
Level PA BA OBP SLG BB/SO BB/PA ISO XB/H
AA 522 .330 .437 .580 .649 .142 .250 .441
MLB 21 .222 .333 .278 .500 .095 .056 .250

Chase HeadleyHeadley offers the best combination of upside and proximity to the big leagues in the organization. Coming off a solid but somewhat disappointing season at Lake Elsinore, Headley moved up to Double-A and dominated. He hit for average and power, controlled the strike zone, and played strong defense at third base. Headley even got into a few big-league games in mid-June when Kevin Kouzmanoff was hurt. Headley draws praise for his intelligence and makeup. His overall offensive game calls to mind Jeff Cirillo (the good version, not the guy who played for the Padres in ’04), with a bit more home-run power. One of Headley or Kouzmanoff could shift to left field, although it’s not clear which — if either — is better suited to make the move. Regardless, Headley should provide the Padres or some other team with a potent bat in the not-too-distant future.

Notable Omissions

A few guys that other experts included in their Top 10 lists didn’t make mine. Here they are, in alphabetical order, along with my explanation of why I didn’t include them:

Yefri Carvajal, OF

Too much projection for my taste. I view short-season stats with extreme suspicion, but it bothers me that Carvajal couldn’t control the strike zone in the Northwest League last year. All indications are that this guy has sick talent; I just need to see him put it to use before anointing him a top prospect.

David Freese, 3B

I actually like Freese quite a bit — every time I saw him in ’07, he was pounding the ball to right and right-center. He reminds me of Kouzmanoff, although at age 24, Kouz was dominating the Eastern and International Leagues to an even greater degree than Freese dominated the Cal League last year. The Padres don’t have a great track record with mid-level corner guys — Tagg Bozied and Greg Sain come to mind — but we’ll see.

Steve Garrison, LHP

I don’t think he’s done enough yet. The ERAs last year looked nice, but the K/9 hovering around 6 doesn’t impress me. I didn’t rank guys past #10, but if I had to guess, I’d probably stick Garrison in the mid- to late-teens.

Josh Geer, RHP

He’s polished and he throws strikes but the 5.36 K/9 at Double-A scares the heck out of me. From where I sit, Geer looks like a poor-man’s Justin Germano. Possibly a useful short-term option, but very limited upside.

Chad Huffman, OF

Most people like Huffman more than I do. I’ve seen him play about a half dozen times, and he never once left an impression on me. That’s not a good enough reason to dismiss him (which I don’t; he’s probably #11 or #12 on my list), but it’s hard for me to shake. The other thing about Huffman is that he’s strictly a corner outfielder and he’ll need to mash at every level. He slipped a bit on moving to Double-A last year. This could be due to differences in league offensive levels or small sample, but it concerns me. I need to see more from Huffman at higher levels.

Drew Miller, RHP

I’ve never seen him pitch and I’m not comfortable making any judgments based on the limited data available. The strikeout rates are promising, but I hear rumblings about his off-speed stuff. I’d think Miller is a good candidate to make my Top 10 list next year, after he’s had more of an opportunity to show what he can do.

Nick Schmidt, LHP

I didn’t include him because he’s hurt and expected to miss the entire 2008 season. Before the injury, Schmidt would have been right there with LeBlanc and Inman.

. . .

There you have it. These guys and about 60 other minor leaguers will be profiled in the book. It’ll be grand…

Weekend Winter Wrapup (10 Dec 07)

Mind is heavily on the book these days. Finished a first draft of the minor-league chapter over the weekend: 42 pages filled with profiles of 74 players. Kind of insane, if you ask me, but I wouldn’t have it any other way.

Somewhat related, I’ll be unleashing my list of Top 10 Prospects this week — either Tuesday or Wednesday depending on… stuff. Meanwhile, here’s what’s going on in the Caribbean leagues:

Thursday, December 6

Late results from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela:

  • Estrellas 2, Escogido 0 (box). Vince Sinisi, batting third and playing left field, went 0-for-4 with a strikeout for Escogido. His team notched just two singles all game, one each by a couple of former Padres catchers, Raul Casanova and Miguel Olivo.
  • Gigantes 3, Azucareros 1 (box). Callix Crabbe, leading off and playing left field, had two of his team’s four hits in a losing cause. Another ex-Padre, right-hander Dario Veras (!) collected his ninth save.
  • Aragua 2, Margarita 0 (box). Wil Ledezma had a nice outing (6 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 SO) in a losing cause. I have no clue how (or if) he fits into the Padres 2008 plans.

Friday, December 7

  • Estrella 6, Escogido 0 (box). Sinisi walked twice and struck out twice.
  • Gigantes 5, Azucareros 1 (box). Crabbe played center in this one, doubling and walking in four trips to the plate.
  • Hermosillo 6, Obregon 1 (box). Marshall McDougall is seeing a lot of action at second base. Batting second, he went 0-for-2 with two walks for Hermosillo. He also completed two double plays (both started by Vinny Castilla, who also homered in the game) on defense. Former Padres right-hander Leo Rosales, sent to Arizona in the Scott Hairston deal, worked a perfect ninth for the victors.

Saturday, December 8

  • Guasave 11, Navojoa 5 (box). Oscar Robles hasn’t played the field in a few days; not sure what the story is there. Batting second and serving as DH, he went 0-for-2 before being lifted for a pinch-hitter. Luis Cruz, who has been starting at shortstop in Robles’ place, singled and doubled in five at-bats out of the #6 hole.
  • Hermosillo 9, Obregon 4 (box). McDougall singled and walked in five plate appearances. Castilla, batting cleanup, went 4-for-4 with two homers and seven RBI. What’s up with that? Seriously, why didn’t we get any in ’06?
  • Mazatlan 5, Mexicali 2 (box). Brian Myrow, batting fifth and playing first base, singled in four at-bats for Mazatlan.

Sunday, December 9

Box scores from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela were unavailable as of this writing.

  • Mexicali 7, Mazatlan 1 (box). Myrow went 0-for-2 with a walk. This was the first game of a doubleheader; Myrow didn’t play in the second.
  • Obregon 3, Hermosillo 0 (box). McDougall, starting at third in place of Castilla (presumably exhausted from all the home runs), went 1-for-3 with a walk in a losing cause.

Whoomp, there it is…

Padres Lose Bradley to Rangers

Milton BradleyMilton Bradley is gone. On Thursday, the Padres were optimistic that they’d retain his services, but now it appears that the Texas Rangers have swooped in and grabbed him.

Because the Padres didn’t offer Bradley arbitration, they won’t receive a compensatory draft pick. (We didn’t re-sign Bradley, and all we got was this lousy T-shirt.)

Congrats to the Rangers, who have made the bargain signing of the winter. Bradley comes with considerable baggage, but he is a difference maker in the lineup, the likes of which the Padres hadn’t seen since the days of Ken Caminiti, Tony Gwynn, and Greg Vaughn in ’96, ’97, and ’98, respectively.

Here’s hoping for better news on the Kosuke Fukudome front. The Cubs seem to be the front-runners for his services, but as Bradley and the Rangers have reminded us yet again, it ain’t over till it’s over…

[Thanks to reader Marsh for the tip.]

Friday Links (7 Dec 07)

Lots o’ links today…

And if all that isn’t enough for you, we have a never-ending stream of links at del.icio.us.

Winter Leagues

Wednesday, December 5

  • Azucareros 5, Escogido 3 (box). Crabbe (who technically wasn’t a member of the Padres when this game was played) went 0-for-4 with a walk while leading off and playing left field for Azucareros. Vince Sinisi, batting third and playing left for Escogido, singled and was hit by a pitch in four trips to the plate.
  • Estrellas 5, Aguilas 3 (box). Luke Carlin, batting sixth and catching, walked twice and singled in four plate appearances.
  • Mochis 6, Hermosillo 5 (box). Marshall McDougall got the start at second base; batting second, he singled twice and drove in three runs in five at-bats.
  • Navojoa 3, Mazatlan 0 (box). Oscar Robles got the start at DH and moved down a slot to the #3 hole, where he singled in four at-bats. Luis Cruz, in his customary #7 hole, took Robles’ place in the field, and went 0-for-4 with a stolen base; he also fielded the only two chances he got at short. On the other side, Brian Myrow doubled and walked in four trips to the plate.

Thursday, December 6

Box scores from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela were unavailable as of this writing.

  • Hermosillo 7, Mochis 3 (box). McDougall, again at second, went 2-for-5.
  • Mazatlan 7, Navojoa 1 (box). Cruz, again at shortstop and moving up to #2 in the order, singled and walked in four trips to the plate. Robles DH’d and batted behind him, going 0-for-3 with a walk. Myrow went 0-for-4 with a walk for Mazatlan. He also committed a throwing error in the sixth on grounder off the bat of Robles; Cruz ended up at third on the play — Padres everywhere. The next inning, ex-Padre Miguel Ojeda (who went 3-for-4 with a double) picked Cruz off at first (Myrow applying the tag) with Robles at bat. Most interestingly, Myrow shifted from first to third base for the final inning. I don’t know what the story is there, or if he legitimately can play the position, but that could come in handy down the line. On further review, it appears that Myrow played 15 games at the hot corner in 2006 while in the Red Sox organization. He logged 86 games at third in ’03, and 24 games at second base. Didn’t Matt Stairs play second in the minors? Sorry to keep beating the drum so hard, but I think Myrow has value despite his age.

There it is. Happy Friday, yo!

Interview: Steve Poltz, Part 4

In Part 3 of our chat with singer/songwriter/Padre fan Steve Poltz (poltz.com), Steve discussed the connections between music and baseball, Jewel, and the Ramones.

In the latest installment, Steve talks about the Roseanne Barr incident, running up Bruce Bochy’s minibar tab at a hotel, and pelting his parents’ walls with marbles as part of a childhood baseball game he’d invented…

***

Ducksnorts: Getting back to baseball, what are some of your favorite memories from watching the Padres play — or really any baseball memories?

Steve Poltz: I’ll always remember being at the game watching Roseanne Barr sing the national anthem and laughing so hard, thinking it was awesome because she was so funny — not even thinking it was a big deal — and then hearing boos. I remember saying, “Well, what did you guys expect? You asked Roseanne Barr to sing the national anthem; she’s a comedian.” When she grabbed her crotch, she was imitating a baseball player — I knew it. [I was thinking] how punk rock she was. To this day I will defend her… What did you expect? You guys asked her to sing the f***in’ national anthem.

I remember the Crime Dog [Fred McGriff] getting in a fight. That was one of the best baseball brawls I’ve ever seen — his jersey got pulled off — that was a great brawl; I think it was versus Atlanta.

Another thing I remember is singing the national anthem when the Padres beat the Braves to go to the World Series [in 1998]. I sang the anthem at Qualcomm, and it felt like it took only 10 seconds. I remember shaking for the first three innings after I sang it. My hands would not quit shaking. I had to wear earplugs [while singing] and I did it live… all those people going nuts.

Another memory is singing the national anthem at the ballgame, and when they announced I was born in Canada, some Canadian haters booing me.

DS: C’mon, who hates Canada?

SP: It was at a time when some trade thing was going on or something like that. Another memory was being at games and Tim Flannery giving me the signs so I’d know when the hit-and-run was on. Then [I'd bet] friends, like, right away without them knowing: “Hit-and-run’s coming right now: Five bucks. Answer now; yes or no?”

Some season when the Padres were in last place — there were probably 7000 people at Qualcomm, and Flannery was coaching third — they were losing, like, 15-1 or something in the ninth inning. We started going, “Come on, we still have a chance!” and Flannery is looking at me from down there — he actually said [cups hands to mouth], “Go home!”

I remember going up to [Bruce] Bochy’s [hotel] room with my guitar on the road when I first started getting to know Flannery. I happened to be in Florida when they were playing the Marlins, so I called — somehow got his number from his wife — and I said, “Hey, my name is Steve Poltz,” and he goes, “I know who you are; I’ll leave you two tickets.” So he left me two tickets, and afterwards I remember drinking beers with him, smoking Cuban cigars — the Padres had won — and then, they were going to Milwaukee… me getting on a plane and just flying to Milwaukee because I had so much fun, and me [leaving him a message], saying, “Hey, I just happen to be in town.”

I remember a couple years later going up to Bochy’s room with my guitar and singing, and him going to do something and me breaking open his minibar. He had, like, a $582 minibar bill. The Padres traveling secretary would not allow me to stay in the same hotel as the Padres after that.

I have a memory in ’84, standing at The Pennant [bar in Mission Beach] — everybody just throwing their glasses up in the air, like off the roof — I think it was when Steve Garvey hit that home run [against Cubs' closer Lee Smith]. I remember mass mayhem all down Mission Blvd.

What was the year when they came back to beat the Dodgers? ’96? My dad wouldn’t even talk to me; it took him three days to calm down to where — I mean, that is just tantamount to being the biggest traitor in the world, what I did, rooting for the Padres.

The game when the Dodgers hit all the home runs against us last year… I was at Jose’s in La Jolla. I called a friend of mine in Pasadena and I said, when it was going to the ninth inning and we had the lead, “I don’t normally like to say things before a game ends, but I’ve just got to trash talk right now and say it feels so good to watch you people lose, and I have no qualms about saying it.” I hung up my phone and then proceeded to eat crow. I couldn’t believe it, and I really blamed myself for that, for upsetting the baseball gods — I’m very superstitious.

DS: You were not alone; it was a group effort.

SP: What I love about [baseball] is, it’s like this soap opera — every day you have these Shakespearean actors; we know who they are and [that] they’re going to be in the show, but we don’t know what’s going to happen. You follow the drama all year long — people who say the baseball season is too long can kiss my a**… so can the DH’ers. You know what? Pitchers are supposed to hit. That’s why I love Jake Peavy. He’s such a gamer. I think he and [Josh] Beckett should be teammates. They would be good together; they’re both cocky.

DS: I would not mind seeing Beckett play here.

SP: I love going on the road to see [the Padres]. I’m a really good fan when I’m on the road; I am not a jerk. I know how to act in someone else’s house. I might wear my hat and I might clap, but I do not get in anybody’s face.

DS: I hate it when people do that here. It’s lame.

SP: Me, too. I really believe in respecting the place you go to, and I believe in respecting the game. I love the game. It’s weird how it’s changed over the years, with specialists, which we didn’t have before, and pitch counts and everything.

I still love the game. I really believe, get rid of the DH. And I wish Montreal could have had fans come out to support their team.

I was a Dodger fan back when Kirk Gibson hit that home run [against the A's in the World Series]. What year was that?

DS: That was ’88.

SP: My love affair with baseball began around the time I picked up the classical guitar, when I was six. We didn’t have video games back then — this was 1966; my earliest memory is of John Kennedy’s funeral on TV… Then the thing that really scared me was the Juan Marichal incident [with Dodgers catcher John Roseboro]. I remember literally grabbing my dad and crying.

[Co-owner Tim Mays stops by; Steve compliments Tim on the pork chop. We talk about mutual acquaintances, trying to figure out whatever happened to the guys from Inch.]

SP: I was so into baseball, and my dad would sit there and explain it to me. I love my dad, by the way; I talk to him every day. It gets me choked up to talk about what baseball has done for my relationship with my father. I’m so close to him, and we talk baseball — during the season I call my dad every day and we talk — he loves the Padres now; he’ll follow them because he knows what a fan I am. We talk about everything that went on.

When I was a kid, all I knew was Vin Scully. To this day, he’s my hero. I’d invented this game in my room. I would take a pencil and a marble — it was almost like I was playing over-the-line without knowing it. The game only had two bases. If I hit it on the wall at a certain height, it’d be a single, double, or home run. I’d throw the marble up and hit it with a pencil.

I was so obsessed with this game. I didn’t want to play with other kids. I would be in my room and I’d be the voice of Vin Scully. I knew all the Dodger players — Bill Russell, Ron Cey, Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes…

DS: Dusty Baker.

SP: Remember Willie Davis in center field before that? I’d sit there and I’d play this game, but I’d always make the Dodgers win, and it’d always come down to the Dodgers and the Reds. I’d always make the Dodgers beat the Reds, and then play the Yankees.

Unbeknownst to me, when I was playing the game, the marble hitting the wall made hundreds and hundreds of dents on the wall. My first memory of telling a lie was — one day I came home from school and my parents said, “Steven, we’d like to talk to you.” When they said “Steven,” I knew I was in trouble, and they were, like, “Why are there 2000 dents in the wall?” I remember looking them right in the eye and saying, “I have no idea,” and them going, “okay.”

One of my favorite days ever was [when] I went to see the Padres play in Milwaukee. They let me go on the field and shag fly balls while Tony Gwynn was taking BP. I suck at baseball — I think I caught one ball. Afterwards, they gave me a press pass and I got to sit by Bob Uecker.

So many times [Gwynn] came up to bat, and I’d think, how can he do this again, with his knee hurting? He’d slowly limp up, and he would do it again. I remember saying to people, “Enjoy this while you have it because this won’t always be here,” which is exactly what I say about Hoffy [Trevor Hoffman]. I get goose bumps when I think about what these people mean to the community; I’m forever indebted to them.

DS: They represent the ballclub and the city with class. When I saw Gwynn inducted into the Hall of Fame, it was really hot and humid, and just packed with people, but I wouldn’t trade it for anything.

SP: I’m jealous.

DS: Everyone was there to see Cal Ripken because it’s a five-hour drive from Baltimore to Cooperstown. There was orange-and-black everywhere, but people saw me wearing Padres stuff and they asked me about Tony Gwynn, so I told them. Then they saw him up there talking, and they said, “Wow, that guy’s really something,” and I’m, like, “Yeah, we know; we’ve been saying that for 25 years.”

[We get into a convoluted discussion of Tom Werner's Fire Sale, the '94 strike, and the Padres resurrection under John Moores.]

SP: The weird thing about baseball is that people become like family to you. When Trevor Hoffman blew a save in the All-Star game, and then what happened with the Rockies [in the 163rd game] — I wasn’t mad. I felt like I was watching someone in my family have something bad happen to them. After everything he’s done, I couldn’t be mad at the guy.

I know him; he is the nicest, most genuine guy. I remember asking [Flannery] about him because he’s good friends with Hoffy, and he said, “He made me feel better.”

DS: I don’t know Hoffman, but I’ve seen him speak in person a couple of times, and he’s impressive. He did his spiel, and then afterwards — this is a guy who could do anything with his time — he sat there and talked to all the kids who came up to him for an autograph or to ask him a question. He just stayed there for, like, an hour.

There’s one other guy that I’ve ever seen do that. In 1993, I went out to Arizona for spring training. It was Robin Yount’s last year. He played his four or five innings and then, after he ran his laps in the outfield, instead of coming back to the dugout, he stayed down in the left-field corner. It seemed like the whole stadium just gravitated toward him, and he sat there and signed every last autograph. I thought, now there’s a guy who is representing himself, his community, and the sport of baseball in the proper manner. I was blown away. This was a no-doubt Hall of Famer; he didn’t have to do that, but there he was.

SP: That’s what Willie Nelson does, too. After every concert, people line up by his tour bus, and he will sign everything. [It's the] same with B.B. King.

***

In the finale, Steve talks about the ’98 Padres, what he would do if he were GM for a day, and his favorite baseball movies…

League Offensive Levels for Padres Affiliates, 2007

Yesterday we were talking about Rookie-league numbers and reader Didi asked about something I hinted at but didn’t delve into as much as I might have. I wasn’t being coy, so much as I was being… disorganized.

In discussing the motivation behind providing comparable players for Padres minor leaguers, I noted that:

Cedric Hunter hit .282/.344/.373 in the Midwest League, which seems really low until you consider how much his league suppressed offense in 2007.

Didi then asked:

Is it possible to describe the league (as you mentioned the number of games played and league average numbers) to add a bit more detail?

Yes, it is absolutely possible. It also is absolutely necessary:

Offensive Stats by League, 2007
  MLB PCL TEX CAL MWL NWL AZL DSL
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and ESPN.
R/G 4.80 5.13 4.63 5.59 4.34 5.13 5.66 4.65
BA .268 .279 .264 .271 .255 .259 .264 .238
OBP .336 .346 .338 .344 .324 .344 .350 .338
SLG .423 .437 .407 .426 .372 .386 .377 .320
BB/SO .500 .494 .503 .477 .417 .456 .464 .542
ISO .155 .158 .143 .155 .117 .127 .113 .082

As you can see, higher levels are at left. The stats should be self-explanatory. ISO is SLG – BA. Bear in mind that this represents output from 2007 only.

I find it interesting that the Padres’ farm teams (above the statistically unreliable short-season squads) alternate between leagues that favored hitters last year and those that favored pitchers. The Midwest League proved unforgiving to hitters in ’07, while the Cal League was a haven. The same holds for the Texas League and PCL, respectively, albeit to lesser extremes.

Assuming that these levels remain roughly constant over time (quick check reveals that in 2006, the Midwest League averaged 4.35 R/G, while the Cal League averaged 5.32; in ’05 those numbers were 4.93 and 5.75 — this probably deserves further study), what can we learn? Well, for one thing, we can learn to cut Kyle Blanks some slack for hitting .292/.382/.455 in the Midwest League as a 19-year-old in ’06 when the league as a whole hit .253/.325/.365. When you’re young and you produce like Nick Swisher in a league of Jack Wilsons, you do not, as Baseball America suggested prior to the 2007 season, “need to re-establish [yourself] as a prospect.”

Going forward, we can apply this same logic to Cedric Hunter. Remember how excited everyone was about Hunter after his 2006 debut in the Arizona League? We were right to be excited, because he’s a fine talent, but we shouldn’t have gotten so hung up on his Rookie-league numbers. Only in light of his AZL showing does ’07 appear to be a disappointment.

Hunter won’t dominate the Cal League when he gets there, as Blanks did, because Hunter isn’t as good of a hitter. Then again, why would we expect a center fielder to hit like a first baseman? If he did, Hunter would be the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr., but I digress.

The larger point comes back to context. When we’re looking at minor-league numbers, we need to ask ourselves — as with any other numbers, really — what was the environment in which these were created? In addition to the league averages we’ve just examined, we also need to consider age relative to league, park factors, and probably some other stuff as well.

The moral of our story? Same as always: When in doubt, ask more questions.

Winter Leagues

  • Azucareros 3, Escogido 0 (box). Vince Sinisi, batting third and playing left field, singled twice and walked.
  • Mochis 4, Hermosillo 2 (box). Marshall McDougall, batting third and DH’ing, went 0-for-3 with a sac fly in a losing cause. Who batted behind him? Vinny Castilla.
  • Mazatlan 7, Navojoa 1 (box). Oscar Robles, batting second and playing shortstop, was hitless in three trips to the plate. Luis Cruz, in the #7 hole and playing center field, went 1-for-3 and scored his club’s only run. On the other side, Brian Myrow went 0-for-2 with two walks while batting fifth and playing first base. Who backed Myrow? Why, it’s the greatest left fielder in Padres history, Miguel Ojeda.

Now back to your regularly scheduled waiting to see which rumors turn out to be true…

Why I Don’t Trust Rookie-League Numbers

I spent most of Monday piecing together the minor-league chapter for the Ducksnorts 2008 Annual. Mainly I worked on the pitchers — Mat Latos and a whole lot of strike throwers with minimal upside.

Part of what I’m doing is trying to provide context for individual players. When you look at a stat line, you need to know something about the environment in which it was produced in order to make sense of it.

Comparable Players

To that end, I’m playing around with comparables for key position players in the Padres organization (haven’t decided if I’ll do the same with pitchers). These have no predictive value but hopefully give some indication of how well a player performed relative to his current league.

For example, Cedric Hunter hit .282/.344/.373 in the Midwest League, which seems really low until you consider how much his league suppressed offense in 2007. If we compare Hunter’s numbers to league average and then find big leaguers who fared about the same relative to MLB norms, we get names like Shawn Green, Kenny Lofton, and Shane Victorino.

In other words, when someone asks how good Cedric Hunter was in 2007, we might respond that he was the Midwest League’s version of Victorino. Note that I’m not saying this is the type of player I expect Hunter to become. We’re looking backward here, not forward. We’re simply providing context.

Sample Size, Playing Conditions, and How Runs Are Scored

The trouble comes when we start digging way down to the lowest minor-league levels. There are a few issues at work in all of the short-season leagues, but particularly at the Rookie level. For the Padres, that means the Arizona League and Dominican Summer League.

  • The first issue has to do with sample size. Teams in the Northwest League (better than Rookie ball but not quite at the level of full-season Class-A leagues) played only 76 games in ’07. Teams in the AZL played 56, while those in the DSL played 64. Hard to make a judgment based on such a small amount of data.
  • The second issue deals with the playing conditions of these leagues. I don’t know how things work in the DSL, but I got a real eye opener back in July when I caught part of an AZL game on my way to Cooperstown for Tony Gwynn’s induction into the Hall of Fame. Among many other oddities, uniformed players operated the scoreboard.
  • The third issue is that runs aren’t created in quite the same way at lower levels as they are at higher levels. One reason for this is that defense down yonder isn’t what it is up here. Players are younger and less experienced, playing conditions aren’t as good, etc.

Unearned Runs at Lower Levels

To that last point, here is a brief look at defensive numbers for each of the leagues in which the Padres have a team:

Defensive Stats by League, 2007
League FPct UER/9 ER/R
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and ESPN.
MLB .984 0.36 .925
PCL .978 0.56 .894
TEX .980 0.50 .896
CAL .971 0.80 .858
MWL .967 0.73 .839
NWL .965 0.93 .824
AZL .952 1.23 .787
DSL .950 1.26 .741

This isn’t earth-shattering stuff, but what we see is a pretty straight progression in terms of fielding percentage, unearned runs per 9 innings, and percentage of all runs that are unearned. At lower levels, we see inferior defensive play, which contributes to a more troublesome relationship between offensive output and the scoring of runs (the league-average batting line in the AZL was .264/.350/377; there’s no way that should translate to 5.66 runs per game).

Again, this isn’t surprising and, as noted above, it’s not the only reason to be skeptical of short-season-league numbers. Still, even the obvious needs to be confirmed every now and then.