OBG08: Wolf, Prior, and Others

As a reminder, we’re looking for your individual best guess on how these players will perform in 2008. Attempting to compensate for other guesses that you don’t agree with defeats the purpose of the exercise.

Okay, enough with the lecture. Now we get to the scary part of the rotation. I’ve got projections here for Randy Wolf, Mark Prior, and Clay Hensley. If you want to throw something out there for, say, Shawn Estes, Justin Germano, Enrique Gonzalez, or Glendon Rusch, go right ahead. Eric Nolte? Sure, why not.

Randy Wolf

Wolf is basically a better version of Sterling Hitchcock. Effective when healthy, Wolf hasn’t made even 20 starts in a season since 2004. He’s now 31 years old and coming off yet more surgery. I’ll go with 95 IP, 4.91 ERA.

Mark Prior

Ouija board says: 40 IP, 5.15 ERA. Also, be sure to lay all your money on 22 at the roulette table.

Clay Hensley

Hensley was real good when healthy. He did great work out of the ‘pen at the end of 2005 and finished 10th in the NL in ERA in 2006. Last year he never got on track and now he’s coming off surgery as well. I’m guardedly optimistic that the Padres will get something out of him in ’08: 90 IP, 4.68 ERA.

And people keep insisting that offense is the problem…

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38 Responses »

  1. Spots 4-5 of the rotation:

    Wolf 84 IP 4.52 ERA 14 Starts
    Prior 45 IP 4.95 ERA 8 Starts
    Hensley 146 IP 25 Starts 4.02 ERA
    Germano 100IP 3.74 ERA 10 Starts (spends time in the pen)
    Geer 10IP 5.40 ERA 2 Starts
    Estes cut after ST
    Rusch 30 IP 4.52ERA 0 Starts (cut in June)

  2. I should have made a guess for Germano. I’ll say 90 IP, 4.99 ERA.

  3. Ok well here goes nothing:

    Wolf 120 IP 4.02 ERA
    Prior 75IP 3.21 ERA
    Hensley 50IP 4.99 ERA
    Germano 112 IP 4.25 ERA

    I think Wolf’s K rate and FB rate are a play in Petco, the same for Prior but Prior is going to especially enjoy the good defense in San Diego’s infield.

    Oh and Hensley met the cliff last year……Germano isn’t nearly as bad as we sometimes make him out to be.

  4. Wolf: 145 IP, 3.98 ERA – I really feel good about this signing. I think he’s got huge potential for us.
    Prior: 64 IP, 4.23 ERA
    Hensley: 89 IP, 3.87 ERA – Still feel that 06 wasn’t a fluke. I think if he learns to master his sinker, he’s a huge assett.
    Germano: 95 IP, 4.67 ERA – Nice guy, but the league’s got his number.

  5. You know I missed out on yesterday, and who we think is writing your forward. For me it has to be John Kruk. ;)

  6. Wolf 130 IP 4.09
    Prior 60 IP 4.20, 50 Ks, broken fibula

    Hensley: will not reemerge til midseason – won’t be ready for fifth starter’s spot in April.
    Germano 95 IP 4.50
    and a pleasant surprise in September: Carillo 29 IP, 3.30, 5 starts

  7. Alright Geoff, I see what you say that we shouldn’t try to submit projections just to compensate for other people’s optimism. I think that the Pads’ 4th-6th starters are giving us an opportunity to submit projections of doom and gloom.

    Wolf: 147 IPs, 4.22
    Prior: 99 IPs, 3.99
    Hensley: 120 IPs, 4.33
    Germano: 33 IPs, 5.11 AAA most of the year, spot starts
    Rusch: cut in spring training
    Estes: 22 IPs, 4.44 a little bit of time out of the bullpen, maybe 1 or 2 starts

  8. As for the foreword, I’m thinking Trader Jack

  9. #5: Kruk is solid.

    #6: Friar Phil, playin’ the Carrillo card; I like it.

    #7: Thanks for bringing up the issue in the first place. I’d made an assumption in my head and forgotten to share it with everyone. Now get back to work on your mind-reading skills. ;-)

  10. re: forward by … has anyone guess TG yet? Now that would be a *coup* :-)

    ( http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/coup )

  11. 10 … one more guess … MattV?

  12. Philly Billy?

  13. Prior- 70 IP 4.30 ERA

    Wolf- 150 IP 4.25 ERA

    Hensley- 70 IP 5.00 ERA

  14. germano- 65 IP 5.50 ERA sent down or released by mid season

    may be a bit harsh

  15. Wolf – 143 IP, 3.79 ERA, 120 K’s. Yep, I’m crazily optimistic about Wolf.
    Prior – 49 IP, 4.33 ERA, 42 K’s
    Germano – 96 IP, 4.51 ERA, 53 K’s
    Hensley – 39 IP, 5.20 ERA, 23 K’s
    Carrillo – 28 IP, 4.89 ERA, 20 K’s

    Others: too depressing to think about.

  16. Wolf was well on his way to at least a 15-win season before his shoulder injury. Since it was only minor surgery, my optimistic guess is that he’ll strengthen his shoulder in the off-season and pitch more innings than he has since ’03 when he pitched 200 innings. I think he can win 14 games with a 3.71 ERA.

    As for the #5 spot, I’m guessing that some combo of Estes, Germano, Hensley, and Rusch will make a handful of decent to below-average starts over the first few months and then Prior will take over in mid-June, start slow, and then HOPEFULLY, down the stretch, be the best #5 starter the team has had in years. That’s not hard to top though.

    Anybody want to take a crack at the best #5 starter in team history? I compiled my choices for best rotations in team history a few weeks back so that might help…


  17. Wolf: 100 innings, 4.18 era, 85 k’s
    Prior: 65 innings, 3.90 era, 59 k’s
    Germano: 110 innings, 4.44 era, 65 k’s
    Hensley: 45 innings, 4.50 era, 30 k’s

  18. Kevin Towers is speaking at the Hall of Champions right now, and you can watch it live online. Buddy Black is there too.

    KT just said Mark Prior’s rehab is going extremely well, and they could have him back as soon as early May.

  19. Wolf (10 precincts): 115 IP, 4.17 ERA, 96 K
    Prior (9): 63, 4.25, 55
    Hensley (8): 81, 4.57, 51
    Germano (9): 88, 4.63, 51

  20. KT just said John Schuerholtz asked for Matt Bush in trade talks with the Braves last year! Matt Bush is going to become John Smoltz!!!!!!!

  21. WOLF: 180 IP, 3.85 ERA, 150 K, 1 full and healthy season
    PRIOR: 90 IP, 4.50 ERA, 75 K, starting mid-June
    HENSLEY: 100 IP, 4.20 ERA, 65 K, a lot of bullpen innings
    GERMANO: 140 IP, 3.75 ERA, 80 K, starter until Prior’s return

  22. Randy Wolf 120 IP 4.20 ERA 97 K’s

    Mark Prior 83.2 IP 3.95 ERA 71 K’s (Heal quicker than expected)

    Clay Hensley 130 IP 3.80 ERA 80 K’s (back & forth between Starter &

    And don’t include this in your survey Geoff because it will screw up the averages but for Germano I believe he’ll be traded (possibly during ST) but I’ll guess…..

    w/ Padres 23 IP 4.70 ERA 11 K’s

  23. Looking like Tony Clark is close to a done deal. Assuming they carry 12 pitchers as they did for most of last season(and seeing their fervor in the rule 5 draft, likely to need 7 bullpen spots again) that is only going to leave 5 bench jobs……yeah I know old news:

    Davanon/someone who can backup CF
    Anyone who can play a passable 2b/ss in a pinch….

    It actually isn’t a bad bench with Clark there to handle the 7th/8th IP pinch hitting and DHing


  24. 23: Bench guesses:

    Clark or Sweeney
    Hairston or Headley (whomever is not starting)

  25. Wolf: 150 IP, 3.90 ERA
    Prior: 90 IP, 4.00 ERA
    Hensley: 60, 4.50 ERA
    Germano: 60, 4.85 ERA

  26. Wolf – 103 IP, 4.49 ERA, 90 K’s
    Prior – 42 IP, 3.33 ERA, 49 K’s
    Germano – 66 IP, 4.91 ERA, 39 K’s
    Hensley – 29 IP, 4.60 ERA, 35 K’s, 32 BB’s
    Carrillo – 28 IP, 3.89 ERA, 35 K’s

  27. Food for thought. When I suggested the signing of a guy like Luis Gonzalez or Kenny Lofton many of this blog profusely disagreed with me stating that they were too expensive and that our ‘in house’ options were better. However, I feel that the most legitimate argument against my suggestion was that someone like Gonzo simply would not accept anything less than a full time role. Yet, I fully believe that Gonzo would get 250-300 at bats in a outfield situation that is plagued with a very serious lack of depth.

    Now we sign someone like Clark for the same price as Gonzo who will offer far less. The lumbering Clark has played a grand total of 2 innings in left field in 10+ years and w/Agon at first, he will get 150 at bats at most. The Clark move simply doesn’t address the gap on this roster.

  28. re 27: You assume Clark was signed as a LF. My best guess, the over/under for games started in LF by Clark would be 2.

    They signed him to be their best pinch hitter(.861OPS over 3 years and 110 AB’s is getting to be a large enough sample size to say he’s at least comfortable in the role), a great clubhouse influence and for some protection against a season ending injury for Adrian.

    Having a legit PH was a need on this roster.

    If they really plan to use a Headley in LF full time and for good, what’s the problem? I’d assume the team promoting its best prospect and leaving him a 65% job is something most of us would hope to see more of, not less of going forward.

    Seriously, if they aren’t willing to give Headley a chance to play everyday after the year he had last year….who deserves a shot?

  29. True, they now do indeed have a legit. pinch hitter on the roster but I just feel that it might have been better if an acquired pinch hitter could at least be an option for some starts in the outfield as well. Of course Headley works out then all of my concerns are out the window.

  30. 27: Somewhat echoing Mark, I think the disagreement is over the gap itself. I don’t see how the team lacks corner OF. The bigger depth problems are at the 4/5 slots and in CF, not that we’re signing anybody to fit there, either.

    All those PH at-bats that went to Blum last year go to Clark this year. That’s potentially huge. We only need a DH for 6 games, but those arel 6 games against 2 of the best teams in the game, CLE and NYY.

    28: I’ll take the under.

  31. If nothing else, signing Clark means he’ll stop hitting all those home runs against Chris Young.

  32. Wolf 155 IP, 4.45 ERA 120 K
    Prior 85 IP, 4.15 ERA 60 K
    Germano 45 IP, 4.80 ERA 20 K
    Hensley 75 IP 3.90 ERA 40 K

  33. #30 We may not “lacK” corner outfielders, but I hardly think that the corner outfield situation is plum. 36 year old Brian Giles is coming off of major knee surgery and Scott Hairston and Chase Headley are largely unproven.

  34. 33: I agree, we don’t have two 27 year old corner outfielders coming off 280/365/500 seasons. Lofton and Gonzalez aren’t those players either. They’re proven, sure. But what they’re proven to be isn’t that valuable now that Father Time has caught them.

    I’m a lot more worried about Wolf and Prior, who have thrown 440 innings combined the last 3 seasons, and the note in today’s paper than Shawn Estes enters spring training as a legit candidate for the 5th role. Estes needs a telescope to see the last time he was any good.

    Don’t get me wrong. Headley’s contact rate worries me, nobody should be counting on Shrek to reproduce his 2007 heroics, Giles is creaky, and Edmonds scares the poop out of me. But I don’t see Lofton or Gonzalez doing much to fix those problems. Lofton would be the better fit, since he might hold his own in CF, but he’s also been starting even as an old man. Why would he sign here knowing he’s the 2nd option in CF and competing with two youngsters for playing time in the corners?

  35. #31: Nice. I was waiting for someone to mention that.

  36. I probably should be worried about the bottom of the rotation, for some reason I have faith that one of the scrub starters they have auditioning for the role will somehow pan out.

  37. Well to start the year at least they only need 1 starter to fill the #5 spot…..either Germano or Hensley should be ok and if not I hope they look to someone like LeBlanc rather then Estes.

  38. 37: You’re more confident in Wolf’s health than I am, and despite any positive news about Hensley’s shoulder, that was serious damage. For the 4th and 5th starter spots, Germano’s the only in-house candidate who was both healthy and reasonably effective last year.

    Seconded on LeBlanc. Even Rusch would seem to be a better option than Estes.