When Projections Go Bad

Friday, May 30, 2008
by Geoff Young
What the heck, now is as good a time as any to revisit pre-season projections. I know, OPS and ERA aren't the end-all and be-all, but they're good enough for government work... Projections vs Reality: Hitters  OPS PlayerBJCHMAMIZIDSAct Statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and are through games of May 29, 2008. Click on column head for more info about projection system. Josh Bard785741791728767767540 Adrian Gonzalez839840842810862879894 Tadahito Iguchi760737756723751732657 Kevin Kouzmanoff882796789740837858741 Khalil Greene762764752747742773599 Scott Hairston833740769721722794714 Jim Edmonds830766782739784756498 Brian Giles820777783732773789815 Gonzalez and Giles are doing as well as or better than expected; Iguchi, Kouzmanoff, and Hairston are underperforming; and Bard, Greene, and Edmonds aren't even close. Projections vs Reality: Pitchers  ERA PlayerBJCHMA...

IGD: Padres @ Cubs (15 May 08)

Thursday, May 15, 2008
by Geoff Young
Padres (15-26) @ Cubs (24-16) Greg Maddux vs Ryan Dempster 11:20 a.m. PT no television AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 183 MLB, B-R The Padres showed some good fight at the end of Wednesday evening's game. Unfortunately they spent much of the early part digging themselves into a deep, dark hole. Still, I liked the matchup of Brian Giles against Kerry Wood with the bases juiced in the ninth. Too bad it didn't work out for us this time. Oh well, we turn the page... * * * The Cubs have ...
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Padres Release Edmonds, Shuffle Deck Chairs

Saturday, May 10, 2008
by Geoff Young
So much for Jim Edmonds. Ducksnorts readers projected him to hit .255/.338/.418, with the most pessimistic of us pegging his OPS at a limp 645. Sadly, the former All-Star didn't even come close to those meager numbers, finishing his Padres career at .178/.265/.233 in 103 plate appearances and, more importantly, looking lost in center field. Edmonds has been released, and his spot on the roster taken by Jody Gerut, who presumably will see most of the action in center field. This is a gutsy move considering that Gerut has 26 big-league games under his belt ...

The Shape of Things to Come

Wednesday, May 7, 2008
by Geoff Young
Top of the ninth, two on, one out. Adrian Gonzalez steps to the plate. Braves manager Bobby Cox summons ex-Padre Royce Ring, who promptly hangs a breaking ball. Gonzalez swats it high and deep down the right-field line. He, catcher Brian McCann, and plate umpire Wally Bell all watch as it sails into the Atlanta night... just foul for strike one. Ring proceeds to fan Gonzalez. After a pitching change, Kevin Kouzmanoff lofts a harmless fly ball to center, into the waiting glove of another ex-Padre, Mark Kotsay. Game over. The Padres lose again. That's the season in a nutshell so far. The Padres play poorly, and then, when they get opportunity, it fizzles... or misses by a few feet, whatever. I'm not prepared to ...

Winning Is Better Than Knitting

Thursday, May 1, 2008
by Geoff Young
Winning is so much more fun than losing, n'est ce pas? Every starter except Jim Edmonds and Chris Young collected at least one hit on Wednesday in the Padres' 4-2 victory over Philadelphia at Citizens Bank Park. Tadahito Iguchi broke out of a season-long slump with four hits, while Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff each homered. (The Padres, who allegedly can't hit, have outhomered the Phillies, 4-1, in the first two games of the series.) Young looked solid for the most part. He gave up a two-run bomb to Chase Utley in the first, but if Utley isn't the hottest hitter on the planet ...

Gee, I Still Don’t Understand Sample Size

Wednesday, April 30, 2008
by Geoff Young
The Padres need to go out and get more hitters. I know this is true because I keep hearing it. I also know it's a complete load of garbage. What they really need is for the hitters they already have to start performing up to their capabilities. Padres Hitters: 2008, 2007, Career   20082007Career  AgePAOPS+PAOPS+PAOPS+ Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are through games of April 29, 2008. Josh Bard309554443107136499 Adrian Gonzalez261161267201251673119 Tadahito Iguchi331166453392185796 Kevin Kouzmanoff261236453410971898 Khalil Greene2811657659100233599 Scott Hairston2891922949478586 Jim Edmonds387736411887384132 Brian Giles371141165521097043139 Paul McAnulty276298434914977 The only guy who might be playing over his head is McAnulty. But we don't really know because we've never gotten the opportunity to see what P-Mac is capable of doing at the big-league level over extended periods of ...

Monkeys on Roller Skates

Thursday, April 24, 2008
by Geoff Young
Thanks to reader Lance for hooking us up with seats two rows behind the visitors dugout on Wednesday night. First time I've been anywhere near that close at Petco Park, and it's a whole different experience. For a guy like me who lives in nosebleed, just, wow. Also, belated welcome to all the folks at Gaslamp Ball who came over and hung with us while GLB was unavailable. Good to see so many familiar names as I browsed through the IGD.The national story will be that Trevor Hoffman blew a save. Hooray for the media. Here are some other stories that won't get as much play: Brian Giles struck out ...