IGD: Padres vs Twins (24 Jun 08)
Tuesday, June 24, 2008by Geoff Young
Padres (32-45) vs Twins (40-36)
Jake Peavy vs Kevin Slowey
7:05 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 185
MLB, B-R
by Geoff Young
IGD: Padres @ Yankees (18 Jun 08)
Wednesday, June 18, 2008by Geoff Young
Padres (31-41) @ Yankees (38-33)
Jake Peavy vs Darrell Rasner
4:05 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 176
MLB, B-R
New rule: Only the fifth inning counts...
SD: .248/.320/.394, 34 runs
Opp: .209/.280/.291, 22 runs
With a little extrapolation, Pythagoras puts us at 50-22. What an easy way to pick up 19 games in the standings. Why didn't I think of this earlier?
Here’s to Humble Foundations
Friday, June 13, 2008by Geoff Young
That was satisfying. We took the in-laws out to the ballgame -- sprung for Toyota Terrace seats, first time this year. They picked a good time to visit. Mom is from the old country, but I was heartened to see that she chose to root for the home team rather than Hiroki Kuroda. She digs the long ball.
Jake Peavy looked sharp. He was efficient with his pitches (12 per inning) and made a few terrific defensive plays. Maybe he paid extra close attention to Greg Maddux while he was on the disabled list.
Fun with Small Numbers
In about 3 1/2 weeks, the Padres have ...
IGD: Padres vs Dodgers (12 Jun 08)
Thursday, June 12, 2008by Geoff Young
Padres (29-38) vs Dodgers (31-34)
Jake Peavy vs Hiroki Kuroda
12:35 p.m. PT
no television
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 184
MLB, B-R
My latest article at Hardball Times deals with the limits of our knowledge and understanding in a baseball context. It's a bit esoteric, even by my standards, but maybe you'll enjoy it...
* * *
Meanwhile, back at the ballpark, Peavy makes his first start since May 14. He's 1-3 with a 4.71 ERA over his last five starts. Here's hoping the rest will have done him ...
When Projections Go Bad
Friday, May 30, 2008by Geoff Young
What the heck, now is as good a time as any to revisit pre-season projections. I know, OPS and ERA aren't the end-all and be-all, but they're good enough for government work...
Projections vs Reality: Hitters
OPS
PlayerBJCHMAMIZIDSAct
Statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and are through games of May 29, 2008. Click on column head for more info about projection system.
Josh Bard785741791728767767540
Adrian Gonzalez839840842810862879894
Tadahito Iguchi760737756723751732657
Kevin Kouzmanoff882796789740837858741
Khalil Greene762764752747742773599
Scott Hairston833740769721722794714
Jim Edmonds830766782739784756498
Brian Giles820777783732773789815
Gonzalez and Giles are doing as well as or better than expected; Iguchi, Kouzmanoff, and Hairston are underperforming; and Bard, Greene, and Edmonds aren't even close.
Projections vs Reality: Pitchers
ERA
PlayerBJCHMA...
IGD: Padres vs Cardinals (19 May 08)
Monday, May 19, 2008by Geoff Young
Padres (16-29) vs Cards (26-20)
Wil Ledezma vs Todd Wellemeyer
7:05 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 187
MLB, B-R
It is difficult to remain optimistic when there is no obvious reason for hope. Even if I continue to believe that the Padres' true level of ability is 85 wins, that gives them 61 wins the rest of the way, which puts them at 77-85 to end the season. Obviously that doesn't fit anyone's definition of a contender.
Assuming the Padres continue on their present course (or even improve some) and finish with their first sub-.500 record in ...
IGD: Padres @ Cubs (14 May 08)
Wednesday, May 14, 2008by Geoff Young
Padres (15-25) @ Cubs (23-16)
Jake Peavy vs Ted Lilly
5:05 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 183
MLB, B-R
I never noticed how severe Peavy's lefty-righty splits are:
vs RHBvs LHB
BAOBPSLGBAOBPSLG
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are through games of May 13, 2008.
2007.174.228.251.242.314.372
2008.174.231.248.268.351.451
career.216.271.332.247.322.423
For his career, Peavy turns righties into Juan Castro; lefties hit him more like Graig Nettles or Ruppert Jones. Guess that's probably why he's been working on the change-up...
