Back in March, we released the Ducksnorts community projections (hitters, pitchers), lovingly dubbed IVIE in honor of former Padres first-round pick Mike Ivie. Like most projections, they were fun and probably less useful than some folks might prefer to believe.
In the interest of accountability (and fun), I thought we’d look back at our guesses and see how we did. Hitters are ordered by actual OPS minus projected OPS, pitchers by projected ERA minus actual ERA. This places the most pleasant surprises at the top for both groups.
Reader Pat joked at the time that “our projections are not park adjusted.” Although he was being funny, he also may have been right. We badly overestimated the Padres offense and underestimated their pitching.
Hitters
| IVIE | Actual | Diff Player | PA BA OBP SLG OPS | PA BA OBP SLG OPS | OPS -----------------+------------------------+------------------------+----- Aaron Cunningham | 139 .251 .322 .385 707 | 147 .288 .331 .417 748 | +41 Yorvit Torrealba | 213 .251 .310 .385 695 | 363 .271 .343 .378 721 | +26 Matt Stairs | 111 .231 .346 .420 766 | 111 .232 .306 .475 781 | +15 Nick Hundley | 382 .252 .316 .413 729 | 307 .249 .308 .418 726 | -3 David Eckstein | 430 .259 .328 .341 669 | 492 .267 .321 .326 647 | -22 Adrian Gonzalez | 614 .289 .401 .545 946 | 692 .298 .393 .511 904 | -42 Will Venable | 487 .271 .342 .437 779 | 445 .245 .324 .408 732 | -47 Jerry Hairston | 282 .264 .330 .377 707 | 476 .244 .299 .353 652 | -55 Chase Headley | 601 .277 .355 .444 799 | 674 .264 .327 .375 702 | -97 Tony Gwynn | 373 .264 .335 .353 688 | 339 .204 .304 .287 591 | -97 Oscar Salazar | 178 .269 .327 .429 756 | 148 .237 .318 .336 654 | -102 Everth Cabrera | 591 .271 .353 .376 729 | 241 .208 .279 .278 557 | -172 Scott Hairston | 442 .274 .339 .476 815 | 336 .210 .295 .346 641 | -174 Chad Huffman | 95 .260 .299 .373 672 | 21 .167 .286 .167 453 | -219 Kyle Blanks | 517 .273 .357 .500 857 | 120 .157 .283 .324 607 | -250 Mike Baxter | 42 .240 .323 .369 692 | 9 .125 .111 .125 336 | -356 Dusty Ryan | 57 .249 .300 .348 648 | 0 .000 .000 .000 000 | -648 Matt Antonelli | 170 .250 .316 .370 686 | 0 .000 .000 .000 000 | -686
Notes:
- There weren’t any real pleasant surprises.
- Cabrera, Scott Hairston, and Blanks were colossal disappointments; Headley and Gwynn mild ones.
- Our projections for Stairs and Hundley couldn’t have been much more accurate; hooray for us.
Pitchers
| IVIE | Actual | Diff Player | IP ERA | IP ERA | ERA ----------------+------------+-------------+------ Chris Young | 149.2 3.91 | 20.0 0.90 | +3.01 Ernesto Frieri | 25.2 4.56 | 31.2 1.71 | +2.85 Tim Stauffer | 88.1 4.44 | 82.2 1.85 | +2.59 Joe Thatcher | 53.1 3.47 | 35.0 1.29 | +2.18 Ryan Webb | 40.2 4.24 | 59.0 2.90 | +1.34 Mat Latos | 134.1 3.78 | 184.2 2.92 | +0.86 Heath Bell | 70.0 2.77 | 70.0 1.93 | +0.84 Mike Adams | 65.0 2.54 | 66.2 1.76 | +0.78 Clayton Richard | 165.1 4.31 | 201.2 3.75 | +0.56 Jon Garland | 206.1 4.00 | 200.0 3.47 | +0.53 Edward Mujica | 76.1 3.93 | 69.2 3.62 | +0.31 Wade LeBlanc | 88.2 4.51 | 146.0 4.25 | +0.26 Adam Russell | 44.4 4.16 | 15.2 4.02 | +0.14 Luke Gregerson | 73.1 3.29 | 78.1 3.22 | +0.07 Kevin Correia | 191.1 4.15 | 145.0 5.40 | -1.25 Luis Perdomo | 49.1 4.50 | 1.0 9.00 | -4.50 Cesar Ramos | 36.2 4.67 | 8.1 11.88 | -7.21 Cesar Carrillo | 47.0 4.43 | 0.0 inf | inf Aaron Poreda | 40.1 3.92 | 0.0 inf | inf Radhames Liz | 24.1 4.83 | 0.0 inf | inf
Notes:
- Stauffer was the big surprise; several others outpaced our expectations by plenty.
- Correia was the only disappointment; I said at the time, “Correia’s projection seems a shade optimistic to me, especially the innings” (I also thought we were too high on Latos, so what do I know?).
- We nailed Gregerson’s line.
Thanks to all who participated, and to Stairs, Hundley, and Gregerson for making us look smart (ignore the others; clearly those are anomalous cases). This was kind of fun; maybe we’ll do it again next year.