When Projections Go Bad

Friday, May 30, 2008
by Geoff Young
What the heck, now is as good a time as any to revisit pre-season projections. I know, OPS and ERA aren't the end-all and be-all, but they're good enough for government work... Projections vs Reality: Hitters  OPS PlayerBJCHMAMIZIDSAct Statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and are through games of May 29, 2008. Click on column head for more info about projection system. Josh Bard785741791728767767540 Adrian Gonzalez839840842810862879894 Tadahito Iguchi760737756723751732657 Kevin Kouzmanoff882796789740837858741 Khalil Greene762764752747742773599 Scott Hairston833740769721722794714 Jim Edmonds830766782739784756498 Brian Giles820777783732773789815 Gonzalez and Giles are doing as well as or better than expected; Iguchi, Kouzmanoff, and Hairston are underperforming; and Bard, Greene, and Edmonds aren't even close. Projections vs Reality: Pitchers  ERA PlayerBJCHMA...

IGD: Padres @ Mariners (16 May 08)

Friday, May 16, 2008
by Geoff Young
Padres (15-27) @ Mariners (16-26) Chris Young vs Miguel Batista 7:10 p.m. PT Channel 4SD AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 181 MLB, B-R Ah, interleague play. The intensity, the intrigue, the irrelevance... I walked over to Book-Off the other day and found a whole slew of baseball publications. Most are in Japanese, so I couldn't read them, but I could look at pictures. One of the publications was a commemorative yearbook (or some such) for the 2000 Pacific League champion Daiei Hawks. ...
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Winning Is Better Than Knitting

Thursday, May 1, 2008
by Geoff Young
Winning is so much more fun than losing, n'est ce pas? Every starter except Jim Edmonds and Chris Young collected at least one hit on Wednesday in the Padres' 4-2 victory over Philadelphia at Citizens Bank Park. Tadahito Iguchi broke out of a season-long slump with four hits, while Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff each homered. (The Padres, who allegedly can't hit, have outhomered the Phillies, 4-1, in the first two games of the series.) Young looked solid for the most part. He gave up a two-run bomb to Chase Utley in the first, but if Utley isn't the hottest hitter on the planet ...

That Strange Feeling We Sometimes Get

Tuesday, April 8, 2008
by Geoff Young
Two quick observations about Jim Edmonds and Tadahito Iguchi: Mike Cameron looked lost in center field last April. Marcus Giles hit .327/.376/.459 that same month. What we're seeing from Edmonds and Iguchi right now may not mean much in August in September. In other words, we still don't know what we've got...

Your Predictions for 2008?

Sunday, March 30, 2008
by Geoff Young
From esteemed reader LynchMob comes this excellent idea for a post on the eve of Opening Day: "provide us with a list of questions which you want us, the commenters, to go 'on the record' with"; he then poses several questions, which you will find below. This might be fun to peek back at throughout the season. I'll lead off with my responses; feel free to follow... How many wins for the Padres in 2008? They'll go 86-76. Is this 2008 team better or worse than the 2007 team? Why? About the same. Randy Wolf and Tadahito Iguchi should represent upgrades over David Wells and Marcus Giles, while Jim Edmonds won't produce like Mike Cameron. Where will they finish in the NL West? Second place. What are ...

Everybody Loves Tadahito

Thursday, March 20, 2008
by Geoff Young
Says here we've been "dot-com" for 6 years now. Cool. Anyway, I'm working on an interview with Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune (it'll run on Monday), and one topic we discussed was potential surprises among Padres for 2008. The name that came up was new second baseman Tadahito Iguchi: Iguchi had some problems with a finger injury early last year, and the White Sox were looking to save money. He's a solid player, better than his stats of last summer would indicate. When Lance and I visited Peoria a couple weeks ago, Iguchi kind of took us by surprise as well. Although he's a compact guy, as I've mentioned previously, he really can drive the ...

OBG08 Projections for Padres Hitters

Saturday, February 16, 2008
by Geoff Young
Here are the results of our community projections for 2008 Padres hitters. To see voting and discussion for an individual player, click on his name. A spreadsheet containing all of our picks will be available shortly. Thanks to all for participating! OBG08 Projections for Select Padres Hitters PlayerNo.PABAOBPSLGOPS Range Key: No., number of people who submitted guesses; PA, plate appearances; BA, batting average; OBP, on-base percentage; SLG, slugging percentage; OPS range, lower and upper guesses for OBP + SLG. Catchers Bard, Josh19425.278.357.410725 - 816 Barrett, Michael19246.263.323.419670 - 830 Infielders Gonzalez, Adrian19641.293.362.517780 - 935 Greene, Khalil21561.257.309.464730 - 832 Iguchi, Tadahito17532.263.341.391680 - 774 Kouzmanoff, Kevin20597.294.355.503800 - 1026 Outfielders Edmonds, Jim17402.255.338.418645 - 840 Giles, Brian17531.274.373.412700 - 860 Hairston, Scott20392.268.327.467741 - 860 Headley, Chase15240.266.347.435670 - 900 A few quick comments: If ...