IVIE 2009: Starting Pitchers

by Geoff Young on Mar 16, 2009 (15) Comments

I hope you had an excellent weekend. I finally saw Stephen Strasburg pitch on Friday and was not disappointed. Then I watched Team Mexico and Team Korea work out at Petco Park on Saturday in preparation for their WBC games here this week. If you don’t mind dropping $50 for a $19 seat, you might want to get in on that action.

Meanwhile, here at Ducksnorts we are in the midst of our IVIE community projections. So far we’ve done catchers (23 precincts reporting as of this writing), infielders (13 precincts reporting), and outfielders (13 precincts reporting). We could use a little more help on those last two, so if you haven’t yet represented, please head over there and do so before proceeding.

Done? Good. Now we turn to the starting pitchers. This is fugly:

Padres IVIE Projections (Draft) for 2009: Starting Pitchers
  IP ERA
Jake Peavy 200 3.01
Chris Young 170 3.84
Cha Seung Baek 160 4.73
Kevin Correia 100 5.09
Josh Geer 60 5.23
Wade LeBlanc 60 5.62

Peavy will do what Peavy does, at least as long as he remains with the Padres. Young should improve on last year’s numbers but he still won’t work a lot of innings. Baek will be the worst #3 starter in MLB.

Then we get to the fun part.

Correia has had moments of utility, although primarily as a reliever. Geer is an injury risk, and even if he stays healthy, he’s likely to get hammered (that 5.6 K/9 ratio in the minors just isn’t working for me). Long term, I like LeBlanc at the back end, but he relies on changing speeds and I expect him to take some serious lumps before establishing himself.

Those are my best guesses. What are yours? Feel free to include projections for others you think might get a shot (Cesar Carrillo, Mark Prior, Cesar Ramos, your aunt Mildred, etc.). We’ll get to the relievers on Thursday.

IVIE 2009: Outfielders

by Geoff Young on Mar 13, 2009 (18) Comments

In case you missed it, we’re doing community projections again this year. Read the introduction to learn more about the comatosely accurate IVIEs, available only here at Ducksnorts.

To the outfield we go…

Padres IVIE Projections (Draft) for 2009: Outfielders
  PA BA OBP SLG
Cliff Floyd 250 .262 .343 .417
Jody Gerut 450 .284 .345 .471
Brian Giles 600 .274 .361 .414
Scott Hairston 400 .247 .308 .466
Chase Headley 550 .270 .352 .432
Will Venable 225 .247 .306 .346

Floyd is one of those guys who even when he can’t do anything else will still be able to hit, which is good because he can’t do anything else.

My two underlying assumptions with Gerut are that he’ll slip from last year’s performance and he won’t make it through the season unscathed. Beyond that, I have no idea what to expect.

I hope folks appreciate how great Giles was in 2008. At his age, he won’t do that again, but he’ll continue to provide value until he’s traded.

Hairston is turning into a handy fourth outfielder. I could see him getting moved at some point during the season — maybe after one of his hot streaks.

Headley’s projections assume he won’t hurt himself trying to play left field. Actually, everyone else’s projections assume he won’t hurt them.

I could see Venable performing much better than this. His minor-league numbers don’t paint the picture of a ballplayer, but he sure looked like one in September.

You know the drill: give me your guesses in the format PA, BA/OBP/SLG. We’ll cover the pitchers next week.

IVIE 2009: Infielders

by Geoff Young on Mar 11, 2009 (21) Comments

Quick reminder: The Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual is now shipping. Go buy a copy or five… In case you missed it, we’re doing community projections again this year. Read the introduction to learn more about the comatosely accurate IVIEs, available only here at Ducksnorts.

Padres IVIE Projections (Draft) for 2009: Infielders
  PA BA OBP SLG
Matt Antonelli 250 .219 .312 .321
Chris Burke 250 .220 .311 .331
Everth Cabrera 150 .215 .274 .308
David Eckstein 450 .274 .332 .340
Adrian Gonzalez 675 .288 .357 .504
Edgar Gonzalez 300 .264 .320 .372
Kevin Kouzmanoff 650 .282 .330 .468
Luis Rodriguez 475 .253 .304 .327

Yeah, I realize those numbers for Antonelli are almost exactly what he did at Triple-A last year. I think ’08 was a fluke and he’ll rebound.

Burke has drawn exactly 27 walks in each of the past three seasons. It’s like Adam Dunn’s homers, only who cares?

I hesitate to offer a guess for Cabrera because he hasn’t played above Low-A ball, but what the heck. I’m not sure how the Padres plan to hide that guy on the big-league roster all year.

The plate appearances on Eckstein might be low. I’m assuming he won’t be the starter by season’s end.

Adrian will do what he always does, which is be a stud while nobody is paying attention.

Edgar will slip from his rookie campaign. After disappearing toward the end of July ’08, he’ll need to make some serious adjustments if he’s to have a career.

Six players drew 25 walks or fewer in 2008 while amassing 600 or more plate appearances: Carlos Gomez, Jose Guillen, Cristian Guzman, Miguel Tejada, Freddy Sanchez, and Kouz. Despite this fact, I still think the guy can hit.

I can’t believe the Padres are going to run Rodriguez out there every day. On the bright side, he should be better than Khalil Greene was in 2008; then again, the same could be said of just about anyone with a pulse.

Those are my guesses; let’s see yours. Use the format PA, BA/OBP/SLG. We’ll cover the outfielders on Friday and the pitchers next week.

IVIE 2009: Introduction and Catchers

by Geoff Young on Mar 09, 2009 (29) Comments

I’m thinking it’s about time to fire up our community projections for the 2009 season. Last year we did reasonably well — as Paul DePodesta points out in the foreword to this year’s Annual (which I’m sure you’ve ordered by now!) we nailed Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Hairston, and Chase Headley:

Gonzo, Hairston, and Headley: 2008 Projections Revisited
  Projected Actual
  PA BA OBP SLG PA BA OBP SLG
Gonzalez 641 .293 .362 .517 700 .279 .361 .510
Hairston 392 .268 .327 .467 362 .248 .312 .469
Headley 240 .266 .347 .435 368 .269 .337 .420

If that’s not deadly accurate, then it’s at least comatosely accurate, which nobody can deny because the phrase “comatosely accurate” is complete jibberish.

The only thing we lacked last year was a snappy acronym honoring a relatively forgotten player. Well, I’ve fixed that. This year’s projection system is called IVIE, in honor of former Padres first-round pick Mike Ivie.

IVIE stands for Insipid Value Indication Estimator. I know this sounds complex and grandiose, but it’s just an inefficient way of saying “dumb guess.” And the first “I” could equally well represent “Idiotic,” “Imbecillic,” or “Inane.”

Anyway, the basic idea is that we all make our best guess at how guys will do this season. Then I tally ‘em up and use the averages as our projection. It’s a totally unscientific process, but when enough people who follow the team participate, it more or less works. Plus it’s fun.

Okay, enough with the talking already…

Padres IVIE Projections (Draft) for 2009: Catchers
  PA BA OBP SLG
Henry Blanco 225 .234 .276 .340
Nick Hundley 450 .239 .295 .372

Blanco is difficult to project because he gets so little playing time, but last year screams fluke. Given that he’s 37 years old and moving from Wrigley Field to Petco Park, I’m expecting some serious slippage.

I note in the Annual that Hundley looks like the next catcher in the Ron Karkovice/Jason LaRue line to me. Don’t expect much in the way of batting average or OBP, but he will hit one a long way every now and then.

Those are my guesses; let’s see yours. Use the format PA, BA/OBP/SLG. We’re just doing catchers for now; we’ll cover the infielders on Wednesday, the outfielders on Friday, and the pitchers next week. Enjoy…

Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual Now Available!

by Geoff Young on Mar 03, 2009 (14) Comments

Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual coverThe moment you’ve been waiting for has arrived. No, Yvonne Strahovski isn’t coming over for dinner; I’m talking about the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual.

I may be biased, but I think this is the best Annual yet. I’m pleased with both the content and the presentation (big tip o’ the cap to Chris Bauer for the gorgeous cover).

The Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual provides the most comprehensive analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres available anywhere. Highlights include:

  • Foreword by Padres Executive Vice President Paul DePodesta
  • Commentary on and graphical analysis of key players — Information on every player that suited up for the Padres in 2008, including dashboards for 21 of them (and haiku for 20 more)
  • Survey of farm system, including reports on more than 80 prospects — Discussion of how the Padres appear to be modeling the Minnesota Twins in terms of pitcher development, a quick look at each minor-league affiliate, depth charts, reports, and top 30 prospects list
  • Detailed review of team’s inaugural 1969 campaign — Recap of the expansion draft, spring training, month-by-month game and player performance, and more
  • Essay on relationship between fans, management, and media — Thoughts on how the Padres and San Diego can best meet each other’s needs
  • Assorted original mini-studies — Includes a look at how bullpen usage has changed over the years as well as a discussion on the radical differences between Jake Peavy and Tim Redding’s 10-11 records from 2008

If you want a taste before committing (always a good idea), why not download the free excerpts? A portion of the proceeds from the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual will benefit FOCAS (Friends of County Animal Shelter).

Previous editions of the Annual are also available:

That’s my pitch. I hope you will buy the 2009 Annual, enjoy it thoroughly, and spread the word far and wide. Thanks much for your time and consideration!

Free Download: Excerpts from Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual

by Geoff Young on Mar 01, 2009 (7) Comments

I am pleased (and relieved) to announce that excerpts from the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual are now available as a free download (PDF, 226k). The download is 24 pages long and includes the following:

  • From “Player Dashboards” — An explanation of what these things are, some league context, and dashboards for Adrian Gonzalez and Jake Peavy
  • From “Padres Farm Report” — An explanation of depth charts, player capsules, and commentary; also a spotlight on center field, with reports on Will Venable, Drew Macias, Cedric Hunter, Brad Chalk, Blake Tekotte, Jaff Decker, and Rymer Liriano
  • From “Hatching a Franchise” — The introductory essay, plus a detailed review of June 1969 (including top performers of the month, a brief list of events from around the world, and the Padres ’69 amateur draft)

That is all for now. I’ll have the entire 254-page book ready for you on Tuesday.

The book has arrived.

Final Book Update

by Geoff Young on Feb 22, 2009 (9) Comments

I’ve just uploaded the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual to the publisher. I should receive my proof copy by next weekend. Assuming all goes well, we’re looking at a Tuesday, March 3 release. Juicy details will be revealed at that time.

I was hoping to have a free download of excerpts ready for you today, but it took two 15-hour days this weekend just to get the book out the door, and I’m beat. Maybe later in the week…

Is it nap time yet?

Stalking Strasburg

by Geoff Young on Feb 18, 2009 (13) Comments

Reader Lance informs us that SDSU is offering a “Strasburg Plan” as one of its 2009 season ticket packages. For $24, you get to see six games. Four of those are projected starts by Stephen Strasburg, the preseason favorite to be the #1 pick in the upcoming June draft.

I’ve spent the past few years watching Brian Matusz and Josh Romanski over at USD, and every time I’ve made the trip to Tony Gwynn Stadium, I’ve missed Strasburg. So yeah, I’m there.

While we’re on the subject, Myron at Friar Forecast examines each of Strasburg’s 2008 starts, including park factors and strength of schedule. Interesting stuff.

Okay, back to the book…

Links for 13 Feb 09

by Geoff Young on Feb 13, 2009 (10) Comments

It occurs to me that I haven’t provided a book update in a while. We’re getting real close. I’m doing some last-minute rewrites on one of the chapters, and this weekend Mrs. Ducksnorts and I will edit the whole beast. Then I just need to create the subject index and finalize the cover, so if everything goes according to plan, it should be off to the printer within the next 7 to 10 days.

Oh yeah, I received the foreword on Wednesday. I’m not quite ready to reveal the juicy details, but I promise it will not disappoint. For the third straight year, my #1 choice agreed to contribute and I couldn’t be more thrilled.

  • Speaking of books, The Hardball Times Season Preview 2009 is now shipping. My copy arrived on Thursday, and it’s a fantastic read — even the parts I didn’t write. ;-) So, you know, buy the thing because it rocks.
  • Padres.com beat writer Corey Brock has resumed blogging. Go say hey.
  • Paul DePodesta is asking for suggestions on how to improve his blog.
  • Baseball Prospectus has posted its projected standings. BPro has the Padres at 74 wins. THT has them at 73 and I have them at 75, so we all appear to be drinking the same really bad Kool-Aid.
  • USA Today reports that Bud Selig “is considering reinstating Hank Aaron as baseball’s home run king in the record book.” I’m all for rewriting history and pretending that stuff never happened. I hope he doesn’t stop there, though. If Selig wants to divorce MLB from the steroids era that he oversaw, he should go ahead and expunge his own name from the record book as well. For as embarrassing as it may be to have Barry Bonds break Hank Aaron’s record under your watch, it’s got to be even worse to realize that you’re the guy who made it all possible. So let’s make everyone feel better by no longer acknowledging Selig’s tenure as commissioner. There, wasn’t that easy?
  • The Seamheads Historical League is going strong. My Padres are 24-24, tied with the Natspos (speaking of things that Selig made disappear) for first place in the Expansion Two division. Our offense is terrific — we’re leading the league with a .367 OBP, .449 SLG, and 280 runs scored. Mind you, this is against teams with Bonds, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, etc. Gary Sheffield (.393/.423/.618), Gene Tenace (.255/.422/.497), Tony Fernandez (.328/.429/.467), and Ryan Klesko (.301/.399/.497) have been beasts, and the rest of the lineup isn’t too far behind. Pitching has been a different story, with everyone not named Bruce Hurst (7-1, 3.13 ERA), Rich Gossage (1-0, 2.32 ERA), or Craig Lefferts (0-0, 2.66 ERA) pretty much stinking up the joint. Jake Peavy is 3-5 with a 6.07 ERA, thanks for asking. I’m thinking it might be time to summon Andy Ashby (5-4, 2.60 ERA) or Clay Kirby (5-3, 2.95 ERA) from Portland.

That’s all for now. Happy Friday!

Rapid Revolution

by Geoff Young on Feb 09, 2009 (32) Comments

What fascinates me is how quickly it all happened. The Padres lost their 99th game of the season on September 28, and a little more than four months later, everything had changed.

Sure, Petco Park is still here, as are Kevin Towers and Bud Black. Adrian Gonzalez hasn’t left, nor has Jake Peavy (though not for lack of effort).

Here is a brief recap of key figures that have left since the end of the ’08 season:

Did You Hear an Explosion?
Date Name Role Status
Nov 3 Matt Vasgersian TV voice of Padres since 2002 Left to become first studio host at MLB Network
Dec 4 Khalil Greene Best shortstop in club history Traded to Cardinals for minor-league reliever Mark Worrell
Jan 13 Trevor Hoffman Best reliever in club history (and one of best in baseball history); face of franchise since Tony Gwynn retired Signed as free agent with Brewers
Feb 3 John Moores Majority owner since December 1994; target of fans who felt he owed them more than he was willing/able to give Sold team to Jeff Moorad
Feb 3 Sandy Alderson CEO since May 2005; architect of plan that worked pretty well for three years out of four Announced he would leave team once transition to Moorad’s group is complete
Feb 5 Matt Bush Former first pick overall who couldn’t hit, became a pitcher, blew out his arm, got into off-field trouble, and generally represented organization’s failure to implement a sound draft process Designated for assignment to make room for Cliff Floyd

This is called swift and decisive action. Heck, I can’t clean house that fast, and I’ve only got about 1200 square feet.