Friday Links (22 Jan 10)

by Geoff Young on Jan 22, 2010 (0) Comments

Link sat alone in a boggy marsh, totally motionless except for her heart…

  • Most veteran Padre on the club since 1969 (Gaslamp Ball). Fun list from jbox that might or might not benefit from my understanding what the heck he’s trying to do.
  • Brothers in Baseball (Baseball Daily Digest). Another year, another set of Padres hermanos. Bill Baer examines brother combos throughout history.
  • Outlining my BtB awards ballot (Hardball Times). Dan Novick provides links to some excellent sabermetric articles that graced the interwebs in 2009.
  • A Dream Team… in honor of Dr. King (Sully Baseball). Awesome lineup of Negro Leaguers who deserve to be remembered.
  • Evaluating scientific debates: some ramblings (Sabermetric Research). Phil Birnbaum makes too much sense. [h/t Hardball Times]
  • Hey hermano (Sacrifice Bunt). I think it’s safe to say that Ray is not a David Eckstein fan. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • Fan happiness (part three) (Hardball Times). Joshua Fisher attempts to answer the question, “Heading into 2010, how happy is a fan with an organization?” According to Fisher, only Astros fans are more miserable than Padres fans. So we’ve got that going for us.
  • Relievers in the rough (Hardball Times). Jeff Sackmann asks, “What makes a mediocre starter a potentially good reliever?” This is a question I’ve informally wondered about for some time and, in fact, briefly discussed in the Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual. Sackmann has taken a much more systematic approach to the problem than I ever did, and the results are quite interesting.
  • Trevor Hoffman: Not done yet (Friar Forecast). Myron examines Trevor’s remarkable 2009 season, comparing it to his final season in San Diego: “Everything is very close, except home runs per nine innings.” Yes, and who could have imagined that in going from Petco Park to Miller Park, Hoffman would see his gopheritis from 2008 disappear? I was so very, very wrong about how Hoffman would fare in Milwaukee, and I couldn’t be happier.
  • In Response to Murray Chass (Baseball Analysts). Quoth Patrick Sullivan: “All I can say is if you’re going to be called out in public by a washed-up sportswriter on his baseball blog, this is how you want it to be done; in a fashion that is so self-evidently discrediting.” It gets better from there, in a train wreck kind of way. Why guys like Chass and Ken Rosenthal feel the need to put uppity bloggers in their place is beyond me. Oh, wait; it’s because they’re uppity bloggers. Silly me.

And a couple more from reader Didi:

  • Best Books Of 2009 (Baseball America). I have read precisely zero of these, I’m sorry to say.
  • Best stuff of the 2009 rookies (Hardball Times). Luke Gregerson appears on this list, as do former Padres farmhands Wilton Lopez and Dale Thayer.

Got links you’d like to see up here in bright lights? Leave ‘em in the comments, shoot me an email (geoff@ducksnorts.com), hit me up on Facebook, Twitter, whatever…

Chris Jaffe on Dick Williams

by Geoff Young on Jan 21, 2010 (0) Comments

Over the past year or so, I’ve had the pleasure of reading through and offering comments on drafts of Chris Jaffe’s upcoming book, Evaluating Baseball’s Managers, 1876-2008. This work is both meticulously researched and vibrant, which means you’ll enjoy reading it now and referring back to it many times in the future as a definitive source on managers.

Because I was involved in the process, I won’t give the book an actual review like the good folks at Friar Forecast and Gaslamp Ball have done. Instead, with Jaffe’s blessing, I will publish an excerpt from his book that covers former Padres skipper Dick Williams. Enjoy! Continue reading ›

Where in the Cycle Are We?

by Geoff Young on Jan 20, 2010 (3) Comments

Ray from Sacrifice Bunt recently asked in the comments:

Does anyone think that [GM Jed] Hoyer is trying to build a team that will make the 2010 playoffs? It seems clear to me that Hoyer is treating this season as a way to get an idea for what he has and what he needs. Not that I have a problem with that, because I don’t.

It looks to me like the Padres are trying to build a contender, although not necesarily for 2010. The (largely former) front office has assembled some intriguing young talent, including a couple of kids around whom potentially to build (Kyle Blanks, Mat Latos) and several useful supporting pieces (Everth Cabrera, Chase Headley, Nick Hundley, Clayton Richard, Will Venable). Add a restocked farm system (thank you, Grady Fuson), and you’re looking at an organization that is closer to making noise than many people may think.

Will the Padres reach the playoffs this year? Anything is possible, but I doubt it. The pitching reamins thin, and youngsters are unpredictable. Bearing in mind that the roster is far from complete, there are too many unknowns at this point. Can Blanks stay healthy? Is Cabrera legit, or was his rookie season a fluke? Can Headley take a step forward in development? Can Latos keep his emotions in check and thrive at the big-league level despite almost no experience above A-ball? Is Venable really this much better than his minor-league numbers indicate? Are any of the pitchers acquired in last summer’s Scott Hairston and Jake Peavy deals ready to do something useful in the big leagues?

Teams that expect to contend typically don’t have that many questions. There are exceptions, but realistically, the goal in 2010 should be to let as many of these guys as possible work together at the big-league level so that they experience success and failure in that environment, learning from both in the process. If all goes well, this could be the core of a decent ballclub in a year or two.

I appreciate the fact that management doesn’t seem to be setting up many roadblocks for the kids. And Bud Black appears to be much more willing to let those kids take advantage of the path that his superiors have cleared than Bruce Bochy ever was (this is now the Giants’ problem; to quote Uncle Rico, “I could have told you that!”).

I’ll close with some excerpts from an old Jonah Keri article at Baseball Prospectus:

The cycle is a baseball continuum on which every team resides. To measure a team’s place in the cycle, assess its talent in the majors and minors. Can the players in the organization, mixed with a few trade acquisitions and free agents the team could reasonably sign, yield a competitive team? More precisely, can the team expect to compete while its current core of major-league players remain productive and under contract?

and:

Recognizing a team’s place in the cycle is perhaps the key element in any team’s game plan, because it drives decision-making. If a GM misreads his team’s place in the cycle, he may get overaggressive and commit too much cash in an effort to win before a core is in place, and quickly fall back to the rebuilding stage. On the other hand, being too passive with a team ready to win can cost the franchise a shot at a pennant.

If the relative inactitivity thus far (trading for Scott Hairston and signing his older brother to a 1-year, $2.125 million deal are minor tweaks) is any indication, the new boss appears to get this stuff. It may make for a boring Hot Stove League, but after looking at some of the contracts that have been handed out in recent years by teams that really shouldn’t have gone there (Orioles, Ramon Hernandez after the ’05 season; Giants, Barry Zito after ’06; Mariners, Carlos Silva after ’07), I’m okay with boring. Do just enough to keep the union off your back, and let the kids play. Maybe good things will happen. And if not, at least you’re not stuck with an albatross of a contract.

Stay lean. Be ready to pounce when the opportunity arises. It’s a simple plan. The only hard part is executing it.

Me, Elsewhere: A Whole Lotta History

by Geoff Young on Jan 19, 2010 (0) Comments

I’m happy to report that my “Players Worth Remembering” series at Hardball Times is finally complete. If you love the history of baseball (and why wouldn’t you?), head on over to learn more about some players from years gone by that might have slipped under your radar:

  1. 1969-1989
  2. 1947-1968
  3. 1925-1946
  4. 1901-1924
  5. Others (catchers and infielders)
  6. Others (outfielders and pitchers)

I hope you enjoy reading the series as much as I enjoyed researching and writing it.

Kouzmanoff for Hairston

by Geoff Young on Jan 16, 2010 (10) Comments

New Padres GM Jed Hoyer made his first trade on Friday Saturday, shipping third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff and minor-league second baseman Eric Sogard to Oakland for outfielders Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham.

I’ve thought about this trade a lot, and the word that keeps coming to mind is “fair,” which is one I didn’t tend to associate with deals made by former GM Kevin Towers. As a friend said on Facebook, “Towers would have found a way to get them to throw in a pitcher.”

Still, a fair trade can be a win. It may be more subtle than, say, stealing Adrian Gonzalez from the Rangers, but I like what the Padres have done here for a few reasons:

  • Kouzmanoff makes a lot of outs (does anyone else find it ironic that Billy Beane would acquire a guy with a career .308 OBP?). The Padres moved him while he still had value. Consider what they did with Khalil Greene (trading him after he’d lost much of his appeal). Now look at Kouzmanoff and Greene through age 27:
     

      PA BA OBP SLG BB/SO OPS+
    Kouz 1775 .261 .308 .435 .248 102
    Khalil 2219 .254 .312 .444 .363 102

    No two snowflakes, etc., but that is uncanny. For as much as I love Kouz (I’ll never forget the time Brian Giles assaulted him when Kouz knocked a game-winning hit after getting off to that terrible start as a rookie, or the time Kouz came out for the world’s shortest curtain call after hitting a grand slam against the Brewers), I’d be lying if I said I had no concerns about his ability to maintain current levels of production well into the future.

  • The Padres needed to clear a spot at third base for Chase Headley, who is not an outfielder. If Headley is going to fulfill his potential (and that’s still a big “if”), it will be at his natural position, where he doesn’t have to worry so much about bumping into things.
  • Hairston is better than any of the free agent right-handed hitting outfielders the Padres reportedly were considering, and it’s not close. He is a stellar left fielder and a decent center fielder, and he isn’t intimidated by Petco Park:
     

    Hairston, Kouzmanoff, Gonzalez at Petco
      PA BA OBP SLG PA/HR
    Hairston 382 .285 .346 .535 20.11
    Kouzmanoff 858 .239 .280 .394 34.32
    Gonzalez 1315 .264 .362 .443 28.59

    It’s a relatively small sample, but Hairston has been a serious threat at Petco Park — much moreso than Kouzmanoff, and even more than Gonzalez. I don’t know how the Padres intend to use Hairston, but I’m assuming he’ll see a lot of action against lefties (against whom he owns a career line of .287/.338/.528 — think slightly lesser version of Sammy Sosa). If he gets 400-450 PA, I’ll be happy, especially if they don’t come at the expense of Kyle Blanks or Will Venable.

  • As for the minor leaguers, Sogard is a decent offensive player whose primary skill is the ability to discern balls from strikes. I ranked him as the Padres #15 prospect coming into 2009, and he proceeded to hit .293/.370/.400 as a 23-year-old at Double-A. That’s not bad for a second baseman, but Sogard isn’t a brilliant defender and he hasn’t shown much power yet, which means there’s not a lot of margin for error. Right now he looks more like Warren Morris than Todd Walker, although you never know.
  • Cunningham? Daniel at Friar Forecast talks about him a little. I look at Cunningham’s numbers and see a better Chad Huffman, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Daniel also says something that I think captures the essence of this trade (it’s why I keep coming back to the word “fair”): “The Padres traded from an area of surplus for talent in an area of need.” Interestingly, Nico at Athletics Nation reaches the same conclusion, using almost the exact same words, looking at the move through a different lens: “The A’s just traded from depth to fill need.”

Which team “won” this deal? We won’t know for a while, but I suspect the somewhat unsatisfying answer is “both.” If that is the case, chalk one up for Hoyer, who may have found himself a future trading partner. As his predecessor demonstrated, those can come in handy.

Friday Links (15 Jan 10)

by Geoff Young on Jan 15, 2010 (2) Comments

New year? What the heck, let’s bring back the Friday Links. Can’t say they’ll be here every week, but they’re here now:

And reader LynchMob sends these nuggets:

  • Who made you God? (U-T). Former Padres player and coach Tim Flannery is enjoying his second career as a musician.
  • Baseball Season (Matt Antonelli’s Blog). The young second baseman is gearing up for spring training.

Got links you’d like to see up here in bright lights? Leave your best in the comments, shoot me an email (geoff@ducksnorts.com), hit me up on Facebook, Twitter, semaphore, whatever…

Me, Elsewhere: Chatting with Dirk

by Geoff Young on Jan 14, 2010 (1) Comments

Former Padres pitcher and friend of Ducksnorts Dirk Hayhurst has penned his first book. Bullpen Chronicles, due out in March 2010, is drawing advance praise from some big names and promises to be an entertaining read.

I recently had the opportunity to chat with Dirk about his book, baseball, and life. As always, he has Interesting Things to Say (TM):

One thing writing has taught me about pitching is how small pitching is. I’ve said things along the lines of this, but it’s true. Writing about baseball is a great way to put thoughts and feelings which seem so large and overwhelming into the confines of small, unremarkable print. Seeing events, whether big or small, in words lets me look at them more objectively. Writing has the power to diffuse and explode things, a power I use frequently.

Read the interview. Buy the book. Have an awesome summer. Don’t ever change.

Be Still, My Beating Heart

by Geoff Young on Jan 12, 2010 (8) Comments

The other day, reader Steve C posed the following question:

Do you think the team is set with the roster as is or would you like for them to add another few pieces?

I responded that I’d like to see a big-league center fielder and/or a veteran backup for Nick Hundley behind the plate. I’ve since perused the list of available free agents at MLBTradeRumors, and it ain’t pretty. There are a few intriguing names, but they all fall into the “Padres can’t/won’t pay for their services” category (insert small market/competitive balance rant here if that’s your thing).

Names I’ve heard the Padres might be interested in include catchers Brad Ausmus, Bengie Molina, and Yorvit Torrealba; outfielders Reed Johnson, Randy Winn, and Jerry Hairston Jr.; and left-hander Noah Lowry.

Pretty overwhelming, huh?

I’d be okay with whichever of the catchers comes cheapest. That probably won’t be Molina, who despite his inability to tell a strike from a hole in the ground has managed to pound between 15 and 20 homers each of the past five years. Some team will think that’s sexy and overpay for him, which is where having no budget comes in handy (“sorry, we can’t afford that shiny thing”). Molina isn’t a bad ballplayer, but my suspicion is that he still considers himself a starting catcher, and I’m against anything that reduces Hundley’s chances of reaching 400 plate appearances this year.

Ausmus lives in San Diego and has played here before, so he’s a perennial threat to return. Torrealba has the killer name; plus he’ll destroy the Phillies when the Padres meet them in the NLDS. I don’t know; I’ve already thought about this too much. Sign someone (Mike Redmond? Ramon Castro?) who doesn’t cost a lot and who keeps Hundley out on the field most of the time.

As for the outfielders, Winn was good in 2005, Johnson in 2006, Hairston in 2008. They’re all on the wrong side of 30, and if the objective is to have someone spell Tony Gwynn Jr. against southpaws, I don’t see how Winn (.158/.184/.200 in 125 PA vs LHP in ’09; he was better in ’08, but at age 36, skills may be eroding) is an option. I doubt I’ll say this in any other context, but I would rather have Gwynn out there.

Lowry? Sure, why not. Actually, I can think of a few reasons (hasn’t thrown a pitch since August 2007, precipitous decline in SO/BB before injuries), but let’s not bog ourselves down with details. It’d be like signing Mark Prior, only without the upside.

Well, those are some options. I’d better stop with the names now; all this excitement is not good for my heart.

Reviewing the 2009 IVIEs

by Geoff Young on Jan 11, 2010 (2) Comments

In the interest of accountability and because there’s not much else to do in January, I thought we’d look back at our community projections made in March 2009.

First, the hitters:

  Projected Actual  
Player PA BA OBP SLG PA BA OBP SLG Comments
Matt Antonelli 224 .237 .322 .343 0 - - - Hit .196/.300/.339 in 219 PA at Triple-A Portland
Henry Blanco 197 .234 .282 .344 232 .235 .320 .382  
Chris Burke 184 .234 .310 .341 89 .207 .270 .305  
Everth Cabrera 130 .201 .282 .287 438 .255 .342 .361 Obliterated expectations
David Eckstein 450 .274 .343 .350 568 .260 .323 .334  
Cliff Floyd 208 .254 .342 .420 17 .125 .176 .125 Why did a National League team need a DH again?
Jody Gerut 488 .287 .354 .455 298 .230 .279 .376 Game fell apart; exiled to Milwaukee
Brian Giles 554 .285 .378 .423 253 .191 .277 .271 Hit like ’88 Gary Pettis, without the speed or defense
Adrian Gonzalez 661 .285 .368 .515 681 .277 .407 .551 Took a big step forward in age 27 season
Edgar Gonzalez 254 .268 .324 .382 169 .216 .278 .373 Next stop: Japan
Scott Hairston 355 .248 .313 .463 464 .265 .307 .456 Hit .299/.358/.533 in 216 PA for San Diego before being traded to A’s
Chase Headley 550 .270 .345 .448 612 .262 .342 .392 Power didn’t arrive
Nick Hundley 401 .240 .300 .389 289 .238 .313 .406 Earlier comparisons to Ron Karkovice and Jason LaRue still look good
Kevin Kouzmanoff 594 .278 .327 .471 573 .255 .302 .420 Appears to have plateaued
Luis Rodriguez 375 .260 .314 .336 251 .202 .319 .260  
Will Venable 210 .257 .319 .369 324 .256 .323 .440 Got Headley’s power

And the pitchers:

  Projected Actual  
Player IP ERA IP ERA Comments
Cha Seung Baek 174 4.53 0 - Spent 2009 on the disabled list
Kevin Correia 113 4.75 198 3.91 Beat projected IP and ERA by plenty
Josh Geer 84 5.01 102.2 5.96 Recorded fifth highest single-season HR/9 all-time among pitchers with at least 100 IP
Wade LeBlanc 61 5.52 46.1 3.69 Performed much better than expected, albeit in limited innings
Jake Peavy 198 3.11 101.2 3.45 Spent much of the year hurt before ending up with the White Sox
Chris Young 164 3.69 76 5.21 Another lost season

We did a good job of guessing. Except when we didn’t.

Me, Elsewhere: Bob Elliott, Nate Colbert, and Some Other Guys

by Geoff Young on Jan 06, 2010 (1) Comments

The penultimate installment in my “Players Worth Remembering” series is up at Hardball Times. San Diego (well, El Centro) native and former PCL Padre Bob Elliott tops the list of third basemen, while original NL Padre Nate Colbert merits an honorable mention at first base.

Also, this year I’m playing in BP Kings, a Scoresheet Baseball league filled with writers from Baseball Prospectus, Rotowire, Salon, BaseballHQ, and more. We recently concluded our dispersal draft, and I’ve documented it over at Unfiltered.

Enjoy…