OBG08 Revisited: Hitters

Back in February we did some community projections for the 2008 Padres. In the interest of accountability, here’s how we measured up to reality.


Josh Bard, 2008
Projected 425 .278 .357 .410
Actual 198 .202 .279 .270

Yuck. Our most pessimistic projection had Bard at a 725 OPS.

Michael Barrett, 2008
Projected 246 .263 .323 .419
Actual 107 .202 .274 .298

We need a synonym for “yuck,” preferably something that rhymes. If only there were such a word…


Adrian Gonzalez, 2008
Projected 641 .293 .362 .517
Actual 700 .279 .361 .510

We totally nailed this one. Imagine how many batting titles Gonzalez could win if he didn’t play half his games at Petco Park and weren’t Molina-brother slow.

Khalil Greene, 2008
Projected 561 .257 .309 .464
Actual 423 .213 .260 .339

Greene and Bard killed the offense this year, but we already knew that.

Tadahito Iguchi, 2008
Projected 532 .263 .341 .391
Actual 337 .232 .292 .306

Iguchi was actually a little worse than Marcus Giles in 2007, which just boggles the imagination.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, 2008
Projected 597 .294 .355 .503
Actual 668 .260 .299 .433

We were way too optimistic about Kouzmanoff. He fell short of our lowest expectations (800 OPS) by plenty. In our defense, Kouz looked fantastic down the stretch in 2007. You know who he reminds me of as a hitter, a little? Steve Garvey. He’s not as good as Garvey, of course, but his style is similar — quick through the zone, hates taking a pitch, hits everything hard.


Jim Edmonds, 2008
Projected 402 .255 .338 .418
Actual 401 .235 .343 .479

He’s still a dork.

Brian Giles, 2008
Projected 531 .274 .373 .412
Actual 653 .306 .398 .456

Our high-end projection had him at an 860 OPS+, which is pretty darned close to what he did.

Scott Hairston, 2008
Projected 392 .268 .327 .467
Actual 362 .248 .312 .479

That works.

Chase Headley, 2008
Projected 240 .266 .347 .435
Actual 368 .269 .337 .420

Damn, we’re good.

There you have it. We’ll look back at the pitchers on Friday.

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19 Responses »

  1. On the plus side, at least we didn’t pay Corey Patterson 3 million dollars for a 48 OPS+.

  2. Here’s the position by position batting lines for the Padres:


    As you can see, the OF was really good (OPS+ of 106) but the infield was terrible (82 OPS+). 1B, CF, and RF were all really good, while LF was close to average. However, 3B was bad and C, 2B, and SS were all terrible. Obviously the key to next season (just talking about offense) is whether Khalil can bounce back.

  3. That was cool, Geoff! Thanks for brining this up to date. Overall it looks like the DS crew did a very good job of projecting, but (as is to be expected for projections) we missed on the catastrophic performances at C, SS and 2B. Looking back at Iguchi I can see where it might have been reasonable to knock off another 10 to 20 points for each rate to account for Petco, age, and becoming better known to NL pitchers, but even that wouldn’t have taken him down to the level he “produced” this year. :-(

  4. #2@Schlom: Is the OPS+ normalized against the average player in the same position, or just too the average player in general.

    I guess what I am asking is the pitchers OPS+ of 19 saying that our pitcher hit that much worse than other pitching staffs or that much worse than the average major leaguer.

  5. #2@Schlom: A bounce back from khalil and just simply a league average 2B would go a long way.

    who knows maybe kouz turns out to be what we projected in 09. and i dont know everything about hundley, but i dont feel like he could really be any worse than bard/barrett.

  6. #4@DM: OPS+ is normalized to the league average, not to positional averages.

  7. This is gonna be short, but that was an awesome post. Great to see reality vs. our projections.

  8. Baseball America has a mock draft of the first 10 picks for the 2009 Amateur Draft. They have Strasburg going first to the Nationals and former 2006 Padres draft pick Grant Green of USC going second to the Mariners. With the 3rd pick, they project the Padres to take 1B/OF Dustin Ackley of UNC. Here’s the writeup of him with some stat links:

    3. Padres: Dustin Ackley, of, North Carolina. Ackley perfectly fits the Padres’ profile of a polished college performer. The best pure hitter in the draft, he should be athletic enough to move from first base to center field next spring, allowing him to fill San Diego’s biggest need.



  9. #4@DM: There are two types of splits on that page.

    sOPS+ is the split relative to the position compared to the major league average.

    tOPS+ is the split relative to the overall team OPS+.

    So the 19 for the pitchers compares them to the rest of the team (where they’d be terrible) but compared to the rest of the major league pitchers, they were pretty good (138). By regular OPS they were third in the NL behind the Cubs 520 (the Padres catchers only outhit that by 46 — terrible!) and the Cardinals 432.

  10. I just heard the Padres are up for sale on the station AM 600

  11. #6@Pat: I’m not seeing “OPS+” at the link Schlom provided …

    What I do see is “sOPS+” and “tOPS+” … and if you click on the column header, you get these definitions …

    tOPS+ – OPS+ of this split relative to the player or team’s overall OPS

    sOPS+ – OPS+ of this split relative to the major league OPS for this split

    So the pitchers had an sOPS+ = 138 … which I interp to mean they hit 38% better than the average pitchers across MLB …

    The tOPS+ = 19 just means that they hit 81% worse than then non-pitchers on the Padres … which really only means that the tOPS+ values for non-pitchers are inflated because they include some relativity to the pitchers …

  12. Looks like Moores is going to sell 49% of the Padres as part of his divorce settlement. Any thoughts? 2 possible San Diego families are interested in purchasing. Does Moores own 100% Might be a dumb question.


  13. #10@PF4L, #12@Lawboy:

    From Padres.com:

    No decision regarding the Padres has been made, and the divorce proceedings are the subject of confidential mediation.

  14. If the Padres remain part of Moores’ property going into the divorce settlement then its quite plausible that the stock owned by John Moores will be seen as community property and split down the middle between Becky and John. Only way that won’t happen is if John keeps that but gives Becky something to make up the difference in cost. Either way that doesn’t speak well for the potential financial future of the Padres

  15. I am choosing this moment to announce my intention to purchase the San Diego Padre franchise. It’s certainly possible that I may need additional investors to accumulate the necessary funds.

    Anybody got a few hunnerd million dollars?

  16. 15: I used to have a gazillion dollars but the past two weeks had whittled it down to only 20 bucks. What the heck, I’ll throw in my 200 dimes with you.

  17. #8@Schlom: Just curious, but how is CF San Diego’s biggest need?

  18. #17@SDSUBaseball: That sentiment actually comes from BA’s analysis. I think the short answer is that somebody at BA didn’t look real closely at the Padres system.

  19. #18@Geoff Young: Ya, I realized it wasn’t directly from Scholm, I was just curious how, after this year, anyone could see CF as our biggest need.