Links for 18 Nov 08

by Geoff Young on Nov 18, 2008 (15) Comments

Hooray, it’s links:

  • Giles and Hoffman (It Might Be Dangerous…). Paul DePodesta offers his thoughts on the re-signing of Brian Giles as well as the latest in the Trevor Hoffman negotiations (or lack thereof). [h/t LynchMob]
  • John Moores to give $2.1 million to Scripps Research Institute (Gaslamp Ball) I especially like how some of the commenters begrudge Moores for, you know, doing some good in the world. That takes a special kind of bitter. ;-)
  • Quite a Haul (Bad Altitude) Mark Donohue isn’t impressed with what the Rockies got in return for Matt Holliday, and who can blame him? Here’s hoping the Padres do better in any potential Jake Peavy deal. [h/t Didi]
  • How the Other Half Lives: Jake Peavy Trade Rumors (McCovey Chronicles). Grant doesn’t understand the Peavy rumors.
  • The Ghost of Ueberroth… (Hardball Times). John Brattain pens a thoughtful piece on the similarities between current commissioner Bud Selig and former commissioner Peter Ueberroth.

More links are available at the Ducksnorts delicious page, which I update as often as practical.

Writing the Book (17 Nov 08)

by Geoff Young on Nov 17, 2008 (2) Comments

Some friends of ours lent us their Wii, so we’ve been playing Guitar Hero in the evenings. I’d heard about it for years but never tried it, and I have to say, I’m impressed. Although it’s not the same as playing an actual guitar, many of the same skills — ability to keep rhythm, anticipate the next note while focusing on the current one, etc. — are required. I can’t see myself ever getting hooked on the game, because after a while it starts to feel like rehearsal, but it is a surprsingly good simulation.

I also did a lot of walking this weekend. Four miles to Teri Cafe and back (with a long rest in the middle for sushi) on Saturday, five around Miramar Lake on Sunday. No pain in hip, no pain in knee. My legs haven’t felt this good since the ’90s. It’s kinda freakin’ me out, but I like it.

Anyway, enough of my showing off that I have some semblance of a life outside of baseball. I did manage to get a lot of work done on the book this week. I’ve received some feedback on the Player Dashboards chapter as well as the 1969 chapter (tentatively called “Hatching a Franchise,” which may be too eggy, or maybe not). Most has been positive, which pleases me, but some areas that could be improved also have been identified, which also pleases me because — well, better now than later.

As for the writing itself, I’ll be immersed in the Padres farm system for the next few weeks. I’ve done some preliminary background work on each of the minor-league teams and the leagues in which they play. I’ve also started on the player commentary section, which will make up the bulk of the chapter. Each position will begin with a depth chart, ordered by level, age, then year acquired/round drafted. For example, here’s what the catcher chart looks like:

Catcher Depth Chart
Name 2008 Level 2009 Age Acquired
Colt Morton AA 27 2003, 3rd round
Jose Lobaton AA 24 2002, free agent
Mitch Canham A+ 24 2007, 1st round
Luis Martinez A 24 2007, 12th round
Adam Zornes A- 23 2008, 7th round
Logan Gelbrich A- 23 2008, 35th round
Emmanuel Quiles A- 19 2007, 6th round
Robert Lara R 22 2008, 19th round
Hans Wilson R 18 2008, free agent
Others: J.D. Closser (FA), B.J. Dubarry, Barry Gunther, Clinton Naylor, David Parrish, Wary Polanco, Jhonaldo Pozo, Maykor Rojas, Ali Solis, Matt Stocco, Shawn Wooten (FA)

The “Others” category is pretty nebulous. Generally I’m using 100 plate appearances or 50 innings pitched as the cutoff, but I’m giving myself a lot of leeway if I think someone is or isn’t worth mentioning. For instance, it would be ridiculous to exclude guys like Allan Dykstra and Logan Forsythe, to say nothing of the international signings. These players are in the organization’s plans and you need to know about them.

That said, not everyone listed in the depth charts will have commentary; I’m saving those for the top 80 or so players in the system. So far I’ve gotten through the second basemen, with commentaries on Jose Lobaton, Mitch Canham, Emmanuel Quiles, Kyle Blanks, Dykstra, Felix Carrasco, Matt Antonelli, Eric Sogard, and the intriguing Jorge Minyeti (who walked in 22.3% of his plate appearances as a 17-year-old in the Dominican Summer League; even for skeptics of Rookie Ball numbers, such as myself, that is impressive).

This week I hope to get through third base and shortstop, maybe start on the outfield so I can concentrate on pitchers over Thanksgiving in Hawai’i. I’ve also got a few other projects on the plate right now: I’m working on a piece about Ted Simmons and assembling my chapter of The Hardball Times Season Preview Book, plus — oh yeah, the day job. We’ll see how it goes…

Research Notes

The book is going to have lots of tables and charts. Shock, I know, but this may be my favorite:

Padres Minor-League Affiliates Walks Drawn Per Game, 2008
Level Team League BB/G Rank
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
AAA Portland Beavers PCL 4.22 1/16
AA San Antonio Missions TEX 4.19 1/8
A+ Lake Elsinore Storm CAL 4.28 1/10
A Fort Wayne Wizards MWL 4.15 1/14
A- Eugene Emeralds NWL 5.05 1/8
Rk AZL Padres AZL 5.84 1/9
Rk DSL Padres DSL 4.97 5/37

Welcome to the organizational philosophy…

Potential Fire Sale FAQ

by Geoff Young on Nov 14, 2008 (24) Comments

Nothing has happened yet, but all indications are that life is about to get real interesting around these parts. With that in mind, here’s a little something to help you through as we move forward into the unknown…

Q: What the heck is going on with the Padres?
A: Principle owners John and Becky Moores have filed for divorce. Custody of the team will be a part of the proceedings, although as of early October, “no decision regarding the Padres has been made.” Some reports suggest that total payroll could plummet to as low as $40 million in 2009. This may or may not be the result of a desire to make the franchise more palatable to potential buyers.

Q: Why did the Padres pick up Brian Giles’ option?
A: Because he’s real good and he comes at a reasonable price; the team doesn’t have a lot of players who fit that description.

Q: What’s the deal with Trevor Hoffman? Is he leaving?
A: Looks like it. As for what’s going on, it depends on who you ask. Hoffman’s camp has their side of the story, the Padres have theirs. I imagine — as does Melvin Nieves at Sacrifice Bunt — that both contain elements of truth; have fun looking for them.

Q: Where is Jake Peavy going?
A: I don’t know, but it sounds like the Braves and Cubs are primary targets.

Q: What might the Padres get in return for Peavy?
A: They might get just about anything. Rumors are rampant, but the situation is so fluid that it’s hard to know which to heed and which to ignore. I’m operating under the assumption that all publicly available information at this stage is unreliable, so I won’t offer any names. If you’re curious, though, you can always try Google.

Q: When will Peavy be traded?
A: Very soon. Or not soon at all. Less facetiously, most folks seem to expect movement before the Winter Meetings scheduled to be held in Las Vegas December 8 – 11. With my luck, a trade will happen while I’m off the grid in Hawai’i over Thanksgiving and you will have to wait a while for my scintillating analysis. ;-)

Q: This sucks.
A: That’s not a question, but yeah.

Q: If the Padres conduct a full-on Fire Sale, will they be really bad in 2009?
A: Possibly, although they were really bad in 2008 without benefit of a Fire Sale, so I’m not sure how much difference a shedding of payroll will make. Then again, I’m not one to use lack of funds as an excuse for not competing. It wouldn’t shock me at all to see the Padres move Peavy and improve their record next year. That apparent incongruity may cause a few heads to explode. Cleanup on Aisle 4.

Q: Should I panic?
A: Only if you think it will help.

Q: Should I abandon the Padres?
A: If you are serious in asking the question, then yes, you probably should leave.

Q: Okay, where should I go?
A: Try the Red Sox. I hear they’ve got a pretty big bandwagon.

Q: Can I come back when the Padres are good again?
A: Sure. We’re easy that way. We’ll give you a little bit of grief, but it’ll pass.

Q: How long should I stay away?
A: Let’s see, the Padres’ last Fire Sale came in ’93. They reached the playoffs in ’96 and the World Series in ’98. So, what’s that, 3-5 years? Of course, this assumes that any potential new owner is as good as Moores was when he rescued the team from Tom Werner and that the current braintrust remains in place. You may have a different crystal ball.

Q: Doesn’t this all piss you off a little?
A: Yeah, the situation stinks and I wish it didn’t exist. But it does, and my opinion has no bearing on its resolution, so I don’t stress. Here’s hoping the folks in charge do as well as Randy Smith did in ’93 and get the team back to the World Series so everyone can jump back on the bandwagon and be happy again.

* * *
That’s the situation right now, but it may change at a moment’s notice. Chasing rumors in the hope of gaining insight is like chasing gnats in the hope of gaining sustenance. It could happen, but I wouldn’t want to count on it.

If you value your sanity and don’t want to be taken for a ride by various media wags who may or may not have a clue, my advice is to keep your head down until the decision makers announce something. Then we’ll have actual news to dissect instead of a giant, steaming load of crap that sells copy and satisfies nobody but the advertisers.

Blast from the Past: Notes on an Old Rant

by Geoff Young on Nov 13, 2008 (14) Comments

I stumbled across an old rant of mine the other day about Bob Brenly’s mismanagement of Byung-Hyun Kim during the 2001 World Series. First off, that was a pretty good rant, if I do say so myself. It had plenty of bluster and just the right amount of condescension.

Second, I speculated at the time as to how Brenly’s curious decisions might affect Kim:

His manager set him up for failure two nights in a row, first by leaving him in way too long, then by bringing him back exhausted. Honestly, the way Brenly has treated Kim, I’m hoping all he blows is the World Series. I don’t want to put some kind of jinx on Kim but if he does come down with a major arm injury next season, we won’t need to look too far to figure out why.

In case you’d forgotten, Kim threw 62 pitches in Game 4 and 15 more the following night. Seven years later, it still doesn’t make any sense.

As for my concern about Kim’s arm, for a time it looked like he might survive. In fact, 2002 saw him named to his first (and only) All-Star squad.

Kim had one more good season after that, then moved into the rotation, where he rapidly transformed from dominant closer to mediocre starter and eventually faded into obscurity. The guy was washed up by age 25.

It’s easy to forget just how good Kim was when he first arrived. On checking his list of similar players through age 25 over at Baseball-Reference, we find some interesting names, including a few with ties to the Padres:

Through Age 25: Kim, Fingers, McCullers, Selma
  Years IP ERA ERA+ SV H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
Kim ’99-’04 419.2 3.37 138 86 6.76 0.84 3.77 9.76
R. Fingers ’68-’72 509 3.31 100 52 7.71 0.87 2.69 6.21
L. McCullers ’85-’89 476.2 3.25 114 39 7.44 0.81 4.25 7.70
D. Selma ’65-’69 549 3.34 105 4 7.89 0.70 3.59 7.11

Selma isn’t a great comp, but he started the first game in Padres history so I have a soft spot for him and I include him here. As for Fingers, some horses start strong while others finish strong. In the period just following the one examined above, from 1972 to 1978, he averaged 9 wins, 25 saves, and 122 innings a year. Those numbers just don’t compute in today’s game.

That leaves McCullers, who threw all of 49 2/3 big-league innings after his 26th birthday, although he’d already shown signs of premature decline on first leaving San Diego in the Jack Clark trade following the 1988 season. Through age 24, McCullers’ list of comps includes some good pitchers (Scott Garrelts, Victor Cruz, Scott Williamson) and a few that are/were better than that (Jonathan Broxton, Huston Street, Ugueth Urbina).

Moving beyond McCullers, I guess what intrigues me is that we never know how things play out until they actually do. This is self-evident, yes, but let me ask you: How many people would have identified Fingers as a future Hall-of-Famer after his first five years in the big leagues? Or, to use an example from my youth and confuse the issue even further, how many would have identified Darryl Strawberry as a guy on the outside, looking in? (Hint: Strawberry’s numbers were better than those of Barry Bonds at the same age and matched quite well with those of Reggie Jackson.)

It’s humbling stuff. And thinking back on the post from years ago that inspired this piece, I suppose that’s why I don’t rant as much as I once did. It’s not so much that I’ve mellowed with age (believe me, I haven’t) as I’ve learned to wait a little longer and gather more information before making judgments.

Some people find value in spouting every thought that pops into their head. I’m not one of them.

Blast from the Past: Random Bits of November

by Geoff Young on Nov 12, 2008 (5) Comments

Let’s see, what were we talking about this time last year? Two years ago? Four years? Six?

2007

We were chatting with our pal Steve Poltz about music, baseball, and life:

I have a song coming out on my new CD that’s called “A Brief History of My Life.” It starts off with us moving to Pasadena from Halifax and taking an oath that we wouldn’t join the Communist party. That’s the first thing I remember — standing next to my dad, and him becoming an American citizen.

Then later in the song, the chorus goes:

We talked Hollywood and baseball in the car
The voice of Vin Scully will travel real far

The next chorus says, “The voice of Jack Buck”; the third one says, “The voice of Ernie Harwell”; and the last one says, “The voice of Jerry Coleman still travels really far.”

2006

Ah, yes: Bud Black replaces Bruce Bochy as manager; Josh Barfield is shipped to Cleveland for Kevin Kouzmanoff:

The one concern I have is that in filling one hole, the Padres are opening another. This is mitigated to a large extent, I believe, by the fact that second base should be a much easier hole to fill than third base has proven to be over the past few years (Sean Burroughs, we salute you!).

The key word there is should. Marcus Giles and Tadahito Iguchi, it seems, had other ideas. That said, Barfield promptly turned into nothing on reaching Cleveland, so at least the Padres got something for him. And Kouz has been pretty solid at third base, which is more than can be said for most of the other clowns that have manned the position since Phil Nevin’s glory days.

2004

Hot topics include the dreadful Jason Kendall rumors, the Diamondbacks’ hiring and immediate firing of Wally Backman as manager, Khalil Greene and Jason Bay, and the defense of Mark Loretta and Jay Payton. I even made a brief foray into football, defending the then-maligned Drew Brees. On Kendall:

No disrespect to Jason Kendall, who is a fine catcher, but I don’t think he’s likely to be much better than Ramon Hernandez over the next few seasons.

In fact, Kendall was a good deal worse, although Hernandez has faded badly the past couple of years in Baltimore, as anyone with half a brain could have told you he would.

2002

I was off on several tangents here. Rereading this one, I’d forgotten how much fun I used to have writing songs. Maybe that is something I will pick up again one day when I have more time.

I also learned that among founding fathers of the United States, I am most like Alexander Hamilton:

You have very little faith in humanity, but still care a great deal about the little dolts, despite your best efforts not to.

Heh. Guilty as charged.

Finally, this is where the quest for Bucksnort, Tennessee, first made itself known. It ended, of course, in the “town” itself several years later. Good times…

Blast from the Past: Fun with Mail

by Geoff Young on Nov 11, 2008 (7) Comments

Back in the day, before we had comments, I used to run a mailbag feature every so often. Here are a couple of fun ones from Novembers past:

  • Mustang Sally, Bolero, and Spam. Self-indulgence at its finest. This is perhaps my “La Villa Strangiato” of all postings. It goes everywhere, whether it needs to or not. Also, while I was inadvertently working “Bolero” into “Mustang Sally,” I’d forgotten that Joe Walsh already pulled that trick in “The Bomber.” Still, if you’re going to rip someone off, it might as well be a guy like Walsh. And Ravel, for that matter.

    Then the rest of the post is devoted to answering spam:

    First up, B.D. from Loserville writes:

    Get your College Diploma today! No books, tests or interviews.. no classes either! No one is turned down.

    Thanks for the offer. Sounds totally legit and something I’d really like to be a part of, but I’m going to pass.

    Presumably I thought it was funny at the time.

  • Mailbag: Special Vinny Edition. Ah yes, who can forget Vinny Castilla? And remember when we were so excited about the thought of Clay Hensley, Tim Stauffer, and Cesar Carrillo behind Jake Peavy in the rotation?

    Two things stand out to me here:

    1. We were waiting on news of a potential Adam Eaton to Texas deal at the time. As I recall, that worked out okay for the Padres.
    2. I said something that turned out to be shockingly true (if this is overly self-congratulatory, it’s only because I get so few opportunities to say I was right about something):

      It sure looks to me as though the Padres are making themselves as lean as possible now to position themselves well for 2007. That may not bring comfort to everyone, but with the division as weak as it is, the Padres could still be competitive next year despite not fielding a great team; and as you say, ’07 should be exciting.

      Seems to me the Padres were competitive in ’06, and ’07 was exciting. I am the blind squirrel, and these are my acorns.

There you go. Happy, happy…

Writing the Book (10 Nov 08)

by Geoff Young on Nov 10, 2008 (7) Comments

On Saturday I finished the first draft of the chapter on the 1969 Padres and sent it out for review. It’s 30 pages long (that’s 10,073 if you’re curious… or not). I’d planned to work on the Farm Report chapter on Sunday, but a few other projects needed my attention, so I bailed.

We’re also making good progress on the cover. The basic concept is in place, so now it’s a matter of nailing down the details. And finding a name to stick in the “Foreword by” space. ;-)

My top priority over the next three weeks is the Farm Report chapter. We’ll see how motivated I am once I get to Hawai’i. Then again, I usually just sit around and do crosswords when I’m over there, so why not write a book instead?

Research Notes

Pickin’s are slim for this installment…

  • On September 14, 1969, the Padres dropped a game at Dodger Stadium, 3-1. All three runs were driven in by new Padres hitting coach Jim Lefebvre.
  • The Padres essentially denied San Francisco the NL West title in the season’s final two weeks. Over that stretch, they went 4-2 against the Giants and 0-6 against the Atlanta Braves, who ended up winning the division by three games over — you guessed it — the Giants.

There you have it. I’ll be working some overtime this week so blogging has to take a backseat. I hope you like reruns…

Links for 8 Nov 08

by Geoff Young on Nov 08, 2008 (10) Comments

What the heck, I’m up anyway. Let’s have a little Saturday morning linkfest…

More links are available at the Ducksnorts delicious page, which I update as often as practical.

Parting Thoughts from Matt Vasgersian

by Geoff Young on Nov 07, 2008 (8) Comments

As you know by now, Matt Vasgersian is leaving the Padres after seven years to join the new MLB Network as its first studio host. Since Matt has been such a part of our lives over those seven years, I thought it might be nice to get some parting words from the man himself, and he agreed. Take it away, Matt…

I really hope that the Friar Faithful can survive what looks to be a lean couple of years. The reality of baseball is that all this is cyclical (any Springsteen fans? … “Everything that dies someday comes back” … “Atlantic City” from the Nebraska album).

To those who enjoyed the last seven years with me — thanks very much. Ours is an industry where everyone thinks they can do this job and most people have strong opinions, so your support means a lot.

It’s been a lot of fun interacting on Ducksnorts the last few years. If nothing else I hope I’ve conveyed that I know what it’s like to be passionate about your team — to more often than not have your heart broken and to occasionally bask in the glow of victory.

To paraphrase to the great John Kruk … “Lady, I ain’t no broadcaster — I’m a fan.”

Thanks, Matt. We’re all fans, too. Best of luck!

Gonzalez Garners Gold Glove

by Geoff Young on Nov 06, 2008 (2) Comments

Congrats to Adrian Gonzalez for winning the first Gold Glove Award of his career. Although I’m thrilled for Gonzalez, who according to my eyes is a fantastic first baseman, I have mixed feelings about this choice from a group that essentially throws darts and hopes for the best.

Albert Pujols (superior hitter) and Derrek Lee (bigger media market, better name recognition) would have been my guesses based on the voters’ usual apparent criteria. Given Gonzalez’ relative lack of exposure and the fact that the Padres stunk in ’08, I’m more than a little surprised at his selection.

What do the defensive metrics say? Nothing kind, I’m afraid:

  • Revized Zone Rating: .697, 10th in NL out of 12 qualifiers (Pujols is the leader, Lee places seventh)
  • Fielding Win Shares: 2.1, 4th in NL (Lee is first, Pujols is tied with Gonzalez)

Gonzalez also placed 11th among all big-league first baseman in the Fielding Bible Awards, which isn’t really a metric but which may have some utility (Pujols won this). He does not rank among the top 10 big leaguers in John Dewan’s plus/minus metric (Mark Teixeira leads, with Pujols finishing second).

Personally, as a connoisseur of first base defense and as someone who has been keeping a watchful eye on Gonzalez for a while, I haven’t seen anyone better at the position since J.T. Snow. As I recently noted over at Crashburn Alley:

I’ve been watching Gonzalez very closely for the past 3 years, and all of his relevant defensive skills — hands, footwork, instincts, arm strength, arm accuracy — rate between above average and outstanding.

Still, I think that Bernie Miklasz at St. Louis Today has a point when he suggests that Pujols got jobbed [h/t BBTF]. And remember, I’m speaking as someone who loves Gonzalez and loathes Pujols.

Very well, then. Consider it payback for taking out Chris Young and Josh Bard in the same inning. And congrats again.