In case you missed it, we’re doing community projections again this year. Read the introduction to learn more about the comatosely accurate IVIEs, available only here at Ducksnorts.
To the outfield we go…
| PA | BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cliff Floyd | 250 | .262 | .343 | .417 |
| Jody Gerut | 450 | .284 | .345 | .471 |
| Brian Giles | 600 | .274 | .361 | .414 |
| Scott Hairston | 400 | .247 | .308 | .466 |
| Chase Headley | 550 | .270 | .352 | .432 |
| Will Venable | 225 | .247 | .306 | .346 |
Floyd is one of those guys who even when he can’t do anything else will still be able to hit, which is good because he can’t do anything else.
My two underlying assumptions with Gerut are that he’ll slip from last year’s performance and he won’t make it through the season unscathed. Beyond that, I have no idea what to expect.
I hope folks appreciate how great Giles was in 2008. At his age, he won’t do that again, but he’ll continue to provide value until he’s traded.
Hairston is turning into a handy fourth outfielder. I could see him getting moved at some point during the season — maybe after one of his hot streaks.
Headley’s projections assume he won’t hurt himself trying to play left field. Actually, everyone else’s projections assume he won’t hurt them.
I could see Venable performing much better than this. His minor-league numbers don’t paint the picture of a ballplayer, but he sure looked like one in September.
You know the drill: give me your guesses in the format PA, BA/OBP/SLG. We’ll cover the pitchers next week.
PA BA OBP SLG
Cliff Floyd 200 .266 .337 .425
Jody Gerut 425 .291 .345 .451
Brian Giles 600 .283 .361 .425
Scott Hairston 350 .247 .310 .455
Chase Headley 550 .275 .330 .450
Will Venable 225 .275 .320 .375
Cliff Floyd 200 .250 .325 .430
Jody Gerut 550 .290 .345 .450
Brian Giles 600 .290 .375 .400
Scott Hairston 300 .240 .310 .435
Chase Headley 550 .265 .365 .440
Will Venable 355 .266 .320 .350
I don’t see Giles in the blue and sand past May and I also think that Kouz will be moved at the deadline and Headley will play the last half of the year at 3B.
Floyd 220 .258/.341/.419
Gerut 415 .284/.348/.465
Giles 590 .280/.378/.427
Hairston 390 .253/.322/.465
Headley 534 .269/.347/.442
Venable 225 .255/.315/.377
1) Believe it or not, I did not look at your projections prior to making mine. They are quite similar though (even on the PA).
2) I think I may be underestimating Hairston’s PA. If Kouz is traded at some point, Hairston will surely see a lot more playing time in LF.
Hey Geoff, did you see last night’s Mexico game? Big time San Diego connection…there was 3 ex- San Diego high school starters Robles, Sandoval and Gonzalez (all 3 and Murrillo played ball in Tijuana)
Cliff Floyd 210 .250 .340 .403
Jody Gerut 420 .274 .385 .471
Brian Giles 600 .290 .370 .405
Scott Hairston 385 .230 .301 .425
Chase Headley 580 .281 .335 .435
Will Venable 205 .250 .306 .352
Floyd 200 .255 .330 .410
Gerut 550 .301 .355 .501
Giles 500 .265 .381 .405
Hairston 350 .247 .304 .458
Headley 600 .257 .337 .445
Venable 300 .258 .331 .386
Cliff Floyd 250 .239 .343 .417
Jody Gerut 450 .284 .345 .471
Brian Giles 550 .285 .370 .414
Scott Hairston 400 .247 .308 .466
Chase Headley 550 .270 .352 .432
I agree on Hariston/Headley, but I am surprised that you are predicting a career worst year for OG.
Floyd may not adapt well to pinch hitting so I think that his numbers should be smaller, but it is really hard to tell.
It is interesting that everybody is projecting a fire sale by the all star break.
Cliff Floyd .275/.388/.425, 200 Ab’s
Jody Gerut .275/.390/.410, 500 Ab’s
Brian Giles .288/.400/.425, 600 Ab’s
Scott Hairston .251/.320/.450, 250 Ab’s
Chase Headley .271/.325/.475, 450 Ab’s
Will Venable .240/.291/.300, 70 Ab’s
OT … interesting article about Prior …
The universal consensus is that Cubs manager Dusty Baker abused Prior at the end of the 2003 season simply because he knew no better. In Prior’s last nine games, including three in the playoffs, he logged the following pitch counts: 131, 129, 109, 124, 131, 133, 132, 115, 119. House believes the overuse by Baker doomed Prior. Eight pitchers this decade have thrown 109 or more pitches in nine straight games, and half of them needed reconstructive arm surgery. The only other pitchers this decade to throw at least four 130-plus-pitch games in a season, let alone in two months, are Livan Hernandez and Randy Johnson.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AtSCsameNkQm5wPaCCXhDY8RvLYF?slug=jp-prior031109&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
OT … FJ blog provides this note today …
A book on umpiring has a detailed passage on the deciding and disputed run from the Padres-Rockies tiebreaker game of 2007.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/13/books/13Book.html?_r=1&em
… hmmm, I’ll have to keep my eye out for a copy of this at the library. Is it true that Tim McClellan is “perhaps the most respected umpire in baseball”? Bleh …
#4@OLO: I missed the game. Very cool.
#6@DM: Age 38 is as good a time as any for a career-worst year.
#9@LynchMob: McClellan? No love for Enrico Palazzo?
With eight precincts reporting:
Floyd: 216, .257/.343/.418
Gerut: 470, .285/.357/.461
Giles: 580, .282/.375/.414
Hairston: 353, .245/.310/.453
Headley: 546, .270/.343/.444
Venable: 229, .256/.313/.355
PA BA OBP SLG
Cliff Floyd 250 .275 .350 .450
Jody Gerut 525 .290 .360 .485
Brian Giles 600 .300 .390 .465
Scott Hairston 325 .250 .320 .460
Chase Headley 475 .280 .350 .440
Will Venable 175 .270 .345 .410
Floyd: 150 PA 250 / 330 / 390
Gerut: 500 PA 280 / 340 / 430
Giles: 600 PA 285 / 370 / 430
Hairston: 350 PA 250 / 320 / 450
Headley: 575 PA 260 / 340 / 460
Venable:150 PA 260 / 340 / 390
Padres signed Chris Snelling today.
Floyd: 200, .250/.340/.420
Gerut: 450, .280/.345/.460
Giles: 540, .285/.375/.440
Hairston: 400, .250/.310/.465
Headley: 520, .275/.348/.450
Venable: 180, .250/.320/.380
Floyd: 210, .235/.345/.420
Gerut: 490, .285/.355/.480
Giles: 380, .290/.385/.425
Hairston: 350, .245/.320/.495
Headley: 530, .265/.345/.435
Venable: 220, .250/.315/.365
Here are my OF projections:
LF – Chase Headley – 558 PA – .281/.371/.485
The caveat here is that if Kouzmanoff is traded, then these abs will be split between Hairston, Venable and Floyd
CF – Jody Gerut – 584 PA – .306/.357/.504
RF – Brian Giles – 602 PA – .292/.389/.444
4th OF -Hairston – 326 PA – .255/.306/.489
PH/5th OF – Floyd – 260 PA – .265/.346/.451
You would also have to add a few PA for Venable and possibly Macias when injuries hit.
Cliff Floyd, 200, 0.240, 0.330, 0.420
Jody Gerut, 450, 0.290, 0.350, 0.450
Brian Giles, 550, 0.290, 0.380, 0.430
Scott Hairston, 350, 0.255, 0.310, 0.490
Chase Headley, 600, 0.275, 0.350, 0.450
Will Venable, 200, 0.265, 0.310, 0.360
Cliff Floyd 200 PA 260/340/410
Jody Gerut 450 PA 280/340/440
Brian Giles 550 PA 285/375/375
Scott Hairston 400 PA 250/320/450
Chase Headley 600 PA 265/335/445
Will Venable 200 PA 250/330/400
Cliff Floyd 125 AB .235 / .345 / .405
Jody Gerut 500 AB .290 / .365 / .475
Brian Giles 400 AB .285 / .380 / .450
Scott Hairston 350 AB .250 / .315 / .485
Chase Headley 575 AB .266 / .340 / .445
No surprises here, but I think Gerut will have a huge year IF he can stay healthy.