I Am Sure I Am Not Sure (I Think)

by Geoff Young on Aug 03, 2009 (19) Comments

He knows changes aren’t permanent,
but change is.

–Rush, “Tom Sawyer”

The world is in a constant state of flux. All that we know with any degree of certainty is that what holds true today may or may not hold true tomorrow.

The Padres have been awful this year. I have witnessed it personally and had others confirm the fact for me as well.

That’s why I feel guilty enjoying this team. I want to hate, but I can’t do it. As reader Lance points out in a thoughtful piece at Seamheads, watching games here in San Diego hardly constitutes “suffering” according to any reasonable definition of the term.

But some people prefer to wallow in self-pity, and that’s cool. If you find that supporting the Padres is causing problems, here are three ways to remedy the situation. There may be others, but these should get you started:

  1. Cheer for a different team, preferably one that is playing well so you can feel like a winner. I suggested the Red Sox back in November, but maybe you could try the Dodgers. They play just up the road from here and are doing great; I’m sure they’ll make room for you on their bandwagon. Pretend to love them for a while. It may help assuage that feeling of utter despair you fear — at least until something else comes along to remind you that winning isn’t all that matters in life. Hey, it’s not like anyone will think the less of you for abandoning your team. Nobody will mock you publicly for being weak of spirit.
  2. Give up baseball and find a new hobby. Focus your energies on something less unpredictable. Try gardening or needlepoint. Go for long walks on the beach. Nothing clears my head like a long walk on the beach. You may find it similarly invigorating and cleansing. Or you may just get sand in your shoes.
  3. Stop whining and watch the games. Really, they’re not that bad… if you like baseball.

* * *

Reader Tom Waits posed a good question over at Padres Rundown the other day. In discussing the current crop of prospects versus that from 2003 or so, he asked:

What reason, other than faith, do we have to believe that the current system will fare any better at providing the bulk of our roster in four years?

The answer is, there is no other reason. Faith is it — Faith that the player development folks know what they’re doing and that the Padres get a little lucky.

The vast majority of prospects don’t develop the way we hope they will. That’s the nature of the beast.

Flux. Uncertainty. The kids from a few years ago (George Kottaras, Tagg Bozied, Jake Gautreau, etc.) put up nice numbers in the minors — as good as or better than those of current prospects — but most have not gone on to have significant big-league careers. What does this tell us about the kids we’re seeing now?

Hard to say. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Neither is it a guarantee of future failure. All we have are indicators and probabilities. How things play out remains to be ssen. Life has its own ideas about fairness, caring little about our theories and constructs.

Is this comforting? Probably not, but that’s not why I’m here. If you want comfort — again, try the Dodgers or needlepoint…

* * *

The Padres have fired hitting coach Jim Lefebvre, replacing him with Randy Ready. It’s become a summer ritual in San Diego: Go to the beach, grill up some steaks, ax the hitting coach.

Will Ready be an improvement over Lefebvre? No clue, but I like the fact that Ready worked with many of these kids when they were in the minors. Reminds me of when the Padres promoted pitching coach Darren Balsley from Double-A to work with Jake Peavy, Oliver Perez, etc. I can’t speak to Ready’s qualifications, but I imagine that some familiarity may help guys like Kyle Blanks and Willdebeast Venable make the transition from prospect to productive big-league player.

* * *

One of my favorite “suggestions” is that the Padres should spend more money on players. I couldn’t agree more. You get cracking on that and let me know how it goes.

* * *

Speaking of money, the Padres traded Peavy to the White Sox for four pitchers. Myron at Another Padres Blog provides analysis and links. Here are my gut reactions:

  • I’m thrilled for Jake that he gets to pitch for a contender.
  • I’m bummed that he won’t pass Eric Show to become the Padres’ all-time wins leader.
  • I’m glad that the Padres free up money going forward and I hope Tom Krasovic is right that this helps them sign Donavan Tate and Everett Williams.
  • I’m okay with gutting a team that stinks.
  • I’ll miss watching Jake pitch; he did fantastic work here, and I have a soft spot for guys that I saw play at Elsinore — Oliver Perez, Peavy, Xavier Nady, Khalil Greene, Jake.

This was a salary dump, plain and simple. The Padres were hurtling toward 100 losses with Peavy on the roster, and he was eating up a huge percentage of the total payroll. If you’re going to stink anyway, why not do it for a fraction of the cost?

My overall feeling is one of relief and gratitude. Specifically I’m grateful that:

  • I had the pleasure of watching Peavy pitch in San Diego these past several years.
  • He agreed to waive his no-trade clause.
  • The Padres got four arms in return.
  • The White Sox are taking on all of Peavy’s salary.
  • We no longer have to wonder whether a trade will happen.

The Padres have committed to a course of action and have given themselves payroll flexibility. The arms are a bonus. I’m not super excited about any of them, but maybe one or two will turn into something. Wouldn’t that be nice?

Chris Ello isn’t happy with the deal. He raises some good points but makes a mistake here:

It’s what bad baseball organizations do. Good organizations have younger players coming up to keep the team rolling. Younger players they can trade to get other star players — not the other way around.

Right. Like Gary Sheffield for Trevor Hoffman?

Snark aside, the larger point is that the trading of established stars for unproven youngsters is not the hallmark of a bad baseball organization. What does identify a bad organization is the refusal to acknowledge shortcomings and a failure to take corrective action.

The Padres pitching depth at the highest levels was non-existent. In moving Peavy and Scott Hairston, they picked up seven pitchers, three or four of whom could be ready to contribute next year. None of these pitchers is likely to be anything special, but maybe one or two will be useful in an Andy Ashby/Sterling Hitchcock kind of way. Grab a bunch of ‘em, improve your odds of success. At the very least, we won’t be subjected to the likes of Josh Geer or Walter Silva.

I went to Clayton Richard’s Padres debut Saturday night. He looked okay (Mike at Friar Forecast has the PITCHf/x goodness). Threw a little harder than I’d expected: 88-92 mph, touching 94. I see him as a #4 starter at best, a long reliever at worst. He’s John Halama with a fastball. That’s good enough to survive in the big leagues, at least for a while.

* * *

It’s-a not so bad,
It’s-a nice-a place,
Ah, shaddap-a you face!

– Joe Dolce, “Shaddap You Face”

Everyone is down on the Padres right now, and understandably so. It’s an easy position to take. It doesn’t require much thought or effort to slag the organization when things aren’t going well.

Empires rise and fall. Stuff happens. You say goodbye to some players, hello to others, and hope for the best. We’ve been through this before and survived:

1993: 61-101
1996: 91-71

2003: 64-98
2006: 88-74

Unless you’re the Pittsburgh Pirates, there’s a decent chance that things will turn around before too long. I like what I’m seeing from the kids so far, and I’m glad the club has decided to run aggressively in one direction. Off a cliff? Maybe. I hope not, although you never know with young talent.

The Padres have possibilities, which is more than they had at the start of the season. Everth Cabrera (who reminds me — and it bugs me that I didn’t notice this earlier — of Quilvio Veras), Headley, and Venable look like they can play at this level. Same with Nick Hundley when he’s healthy.

On the pitching side, Luke Gregerson and Edward Mujica should contribute, which nobody could have anticipated a few months ago. Ditto Richard. These guys aren’t exciting, but they could be useful, which is an improvement.

Beyond the cogs, Kyle Blanks and Mat Latos look like potential impact players around whom to build. Will they reach their potential? We don’t know yet, but they might and now they’re getting a chance to show what they can do… you know, kind of like Peavy had that chance back in 2002.

* * *

But I will rise
And I will return
The Phoenix from the flame

–Sinead O’Connor, “Troy”

Where is my outrage? That is an excellent question. The truth is, I have embarrassed my outrage too many times and now it won’t come when I call. Here are some places I wasted my outrage:

At some point you get tired of being wrong all the time. Had I been paying closer attention back then, I’m sure I would have been outraged by the ’93 Fire Sale as well. But then Ashby and Hoffman became key parts of the ’96 and ’98 teams; Derek Bell was part of the payment for Ken Caminiti and Steve Finley; and Brad Ausmus brought John Flaherty and Chris Gomez.

I’ll hold my hysteria for now. There are things in this world that are worthy of outrage; Peavy being traded to the White Sox is not one of them.

* * *

I need to be clear on one point. None of this should be taken to mean that criticism of the organization isn’t warranted. The Padres have fallen into a state of disrepair. Some of this (e.g., questionable draft strategies) is their own doing, some of it (’07 meltdown) is just dumb luck.

At the same time, the people in the front office know more about baseball than some folks may think. I tell you this because I used to be a smart guy, too, rattling off reasons why a particular move was idiotic.

Knee-jerk reactions sell advertising, but ultimately what is of value are well-considered points of view. As one who once made a habit of launching such brash proclamations, let me assure you that it is wise to consider multiple angles before doing so. Otherwise you run the very real risk of having your outrage desert you.

Modified Box Scores

Here are your boxes (explanation) for the week.

Positives: Kyle Blanks and Everth Cabrera are playing often and playing well.
Negatives: Drew Macias was optioned to Portland… again.

Mon, Jul 27 at Cin
  PA OB TB Tot
Cabrera 1 1 1 3
Blanks 1 1 0 2
Venable 1 0 0 1
Totals 3 2 1 6

Cabrera hits first big-league homer.

Tue, Jul 28 at Cin
  PA OB TB Tot
Headley 1 0 0 1
Blanks 1 1 0 2
Cabrera 1 1 1 3
Totals 3 2 1 6

Cabrera doubles twice, steals two bases; all 13 of his steals this year have come since June 23, and 5 have been of third base.

Wed, Jul 29 at Cin
  PA OB TB Tot
Headley 1 1 0 2
Blanks 1 0 1 2
Cabrera 1 1 0 2
Totals 3 2 1 6
  End Eff Pwr Tot
Latos 1 1 0 2

Blanks hits 451-foot homer to left; Latos allows 1 hit over 7 innings.

Thu, Jul 30 at Cin
  PA OB TB Tot
Cabrera 1 0 0 1
Headley 1 1 0 2
Blanks 1 1 0 2
Venable 1 1 1 3
Totals 4 3 1 8

Headley reaches base four times; Venable collects four hits, including a homer.

Fri, Jul 31 vs Mil
  PA OB TB Tot
Blanks 1 1 1 3
Headley 1 1 0 2
Venable 1 0 1 2
Cabrera 1 0 0 1
Totals 4 2 2 8

Blanks and Venable go yard.

Sat, Aug 1 vs Mil
  PA OB TB Tot
Blanks 1 0 0 1
Venable 1 1 1 3
Cabrera 1 0 0 1
Totals 3 1 1 5

Venable homers in third straight game; Headley doesn’t show up here, but he knocked a pinch-hit double to right-center in the eighth that missed leaving the park by inches.

Sun, Aug 2 vs Mil
  PA OB TB Tot
Cabrera 1 1 0 2
Headley 1 0 0 1
Totals 2 1 0 3

Oh well, at least we got to see Trevor pitch.

Individual Totals
  7/27-8/2 Since ASB
  PA OB TB Tot B% PA OB TB Tot B%
Blanks 6 4 2 12 .500 12 7 5 24 .500
Cabrera 7 4 3 14 .500 18 8 3 29 .379
Venable 4 2 3 9 .556 10 3 3 16 .375
Headley 5 3 0 8 .375 13 6 1 20 .350
Macias 0 0 0 0 - 2 0 0 2 .000
Totals 22 13 7 42 .476 55 24 12 91 .396
  End Eff Pwr Tot   End Eff Pwr Tot
Latos 1 1 0 2   2 1 1 4  

 

Weekly Totals
  Week Since ASB
  G PA OB TB End Eff Pwr Tot T/G G Tot T/G
7/16-7/19 4 12 3 1 0 1 0 17 4.25 4 17 4.25
7/20-7/26 7 21 8 4 1 0 0 34 4.86 11 51 4.64
7/27-8/2 7 22 13 7 1 1 0 44 6.29 18 95 5.28

Smooth Jazz and Other Questionable Ideas

by Geoff Young on Jul 27, 2009 (7) Comments

According to Google Maps, my work commute takes 14 minutes. In reality, where the freeway is unusable when I need it, the trip takes more like 40 minutes. It’s a stimulating drive, though, as I pass a municipal airport and MCAS Miramar along the way.

Sometimes I’ll see jets landing or giant helicopters hovering overhead, which is kind of cool. I also get to visit parts of San Diego county that most people don’t know exist, which helps offset the fact that I spend my days in Sorrento Valley — the “smooth jazz” portion of our fine city.

Smooth jazz is a funny term. Neither smooth nor jazz, it is really just a euphemism for “boring crap.”

(<voice tone=”ArtGood”>Next up… Keiko Matsui, Spyro Gyra, Jonathan Butler, The Rippingtons</voice>. Don’t play dumb with me; you totally used to rock Basia in your Mercedes with the top down on the way to Epazote. I believe your exact words were, “Dude, when she sings, ‘It’s gonna be a new day for you’, I feel like she really gets me.)

When my old band was looking for a bass player, we interviewed a guy who used to play that stuff because it paid well. Apparently rich folks with no taste love it. (Speaking of which, I recently heard that a certain multimillionaire baseball player drinks Keystone. On the one hand, I applaud him for “keeping it real.” On the other, that is just disgusting.)

So, we were chatting with this bassist over sandwiches (we always interviewed before auditioning — any jackass can play an instrument, but you want to make sure you’re not stuck with a jackass) and he was telling us about the smooth jazz scene. As he confessed, “We don’t really play songs, we just kind of noodle around while people in suits drink cocktails.”

He was a Zen Buddhist who had a regular paying gig playing at a Christian church. Interesting cat, although we didn’t end up hiring him.

Anyway, the point is that when I’m driving to work, my mind sometimes wanders. That is what minds do, you see.

This week, it flashed on a couple of things. First, I have been thinking about history a lot. Maybe it’s because I find the present unbearable, or maybe it’s because I spent too much time sitting around the house with nothing to do while recovering from knee surgery, but I’ve been re-reading my old Bill James books and loving them.

Bobby Doerr

Then I was thinking about my road trip to Cooperstown in 2007 for Tony Gwynn’s Hall of Fame induction. I remembered how because the skies threatened rain, the organizers pushed Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr. to the front of the day’s proceedings, which meant that everyone else being honored on the day would follow.

Let me digress here for a moment: Say you went to see Iron Maiden play at the Long Beach Arena in, oh, February 1987 or so. Now suppose that the Vinnie Vincent Invasion were opening for them, only due to circumstances beyond anyone’s control, Iron Maiden were forced to play first. How many people do you suppose would have stuck around to watch Vinnie Vincent make a bunch of noise in front of his wall of hot pink Marshall stacks?

Not many. In the scenario just described, it would have been a blessing (trust me), but the point holds. If you follow Gwynn and Ripken at Cooperstown, most people will not see you.

One gentleman who had the misfortune of coming on after the main event was Bobby Doerr. While people left by the thousands, I sat and listened.

Doerr was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1986, and it’s not like my leaving a few minutes early was going to help get me anywhere sooner in that overfilled neck of the woods (it took our bus more than two hours to get from Cooperstown to Oneonta — 40 minutes according to Google Maps; puts my daily commute in perspective). The least I could do, having driven 3000+ miles to witness history, was stick around and pay a little respect to one of the game’s legends.

Doerr played for the Boston Red Sox from 1937 to 1951. He hit .288/.362/.461 (115 OPS+), knocking 2042 hits and 223 homers during his career. Doerr was was sort of like Alan Trammell, but with more power, less speed, and 438 fewer games to his credit. (Remind me why Trammell isn’t in the Hall of Fame?)

Getting back to Doerr, he is ranked in The New Bill James Historical Abstract (published in 2001) as the 18th best second baseman in big-league history. One wonders how much higher Doerr would have rated had he not retired at age 33. It’s not as if he were slowing down — he hit .289/.378/.448 (115 OPS+), with 13 homers in his final season and was named to his ninth American League All-Star team.

Doerr also has a significant San Diego connection, of which I was unaware while I watched him at Cooperstown. In 1936, at age 18, Doerr played second base for the original PCL Padres. He hit .342 and led the known universe with 238 hits (finishing comfortably ahead of the Cleveland Indians’ Earl Averill).

While with the Padres, Doerr played alongside Vince DiMaggio and Ted Williams. In fact, according to James, Doerr is indirectly responsible for the Red Sox signing of Williams:

When Eddie Collins, GM of the Red Sox, flew out to look Doerr over and decide whether to pick up the option, he happened to see a seventeen-year-old the San Diego team had just signed, Ted Williams.

Well. If you didn’t know that already, now you do.

Modified Box Scores

The second thing I dreamed about as I drove along back roads to the day gig was how to make the final two months of the current season more pleasant. If you know me at all, you know that I find losing intolerable. But this is what we’re stuck with, so I have been seeking different ways to evaluate games.

Given that the rest of 2009 is an audition for next year, maybe it makes more sense to judge success on the progress of individuals rather than on team record. When you have the worst Pythagorean record in baseball, does it matter how far out of fourth place you are?

I’m watching the Padres the way I would watch a minor-league team (insert obvious joke here), with an eye toward the future. Which guys can contribute down the line, and how are they progressing toward that goal?

With this in mind, I’ve created Modified Box Scores. The method is crude, but basically we’re attempting to answer two fundamental questions:

  • Is Bud Black playing the right guys?
  • Are these guys performing?

Here are the players I’m tracking as potential useful parts of next year’s team:

  • Nick Hundley
  • Chase Headley
  • Everth Cabrera
  • Kyle Blanks
  • Drew Macias
  • Will Venable
  • Mat Latos

I’m not worried about Adrian Gonzalez, Jake Peavy, or Heath Bell. Those guys are established, and the Padres deserve no credit for their performing well. My focus is on players that are still being developed and that can contribute going forward.

The system works like this:

For hitters:

  • Award 1 point if he gets at least 4 plate appearances (playing time component)
  • Award 1 point if he reaches base 2 or more times (on-base component)
  • Award 1 point if he records 4 or more total bases (slugging component)

For example, on July 21, Blanks went 1-for-4 with a homer. He is awarded 1 point for 4 plate appearances and 1 point for 4 total bases.

For pitchers:

  • Award 1 point if he works at least 5 innings (endurance component)
  • Award 1 point if his pitches per innings pitched is less than 15 (efficiency component)
  • Award 1 point if his strikeouts are equal to or greater than his innings pitched (power component)

For example, on July 24, Latos went 5 2/3 innings and struck out 5, using 94 pitches. He is awarded 1 point for endurance.

You could tweak these parameters in any number of ways, but this makes sense to me, so it’s what I’m watching and recording.

For your dining and dancing pleasure, here are the Padres’ Modified Box Scores since the All-Star break (click on the date if you think you can stomach the real box score):

Thu, Jul 16 vs Col
  PA OB TB Tot
Cabrera 1 0 0 1
Headley 1 1 0 2
Venable 1 1 0 2
Totals 3 2 0 5

 

Fri, Jul 17 vs Col
  PA OB TB Tot
Cabrera 1 0 0 1
Headley 1 0 0 1
Venable 1 0 0 1
Totals 3 0 0 3

 

Sat, Jul 18 vs Col
  PA OB TB Tot
Cabrera 1 0 0 1
Headley 0 0 1 1
Venable 1 0 0 1
Blanks 1 1 0 2
Totals 3 1 1 5

Headley hits pinch-homer.

Sun, Jul 19 vs Col
  PA OB TB Tot
Cabrera 1 0 0 1
Headley 1 0 0 1
Venable 1 0 0 1
Totals 3 0 0 3
  End Eff Pwr Tot
Latos 0 0 1 1

Latos makes big-league debut.

Mon, Jul 20 vs Fla
  PA OB TB Tot
Cabrera 1 1 0 2
Headley 1 0 0 1
Totals 2 1 0 3

 

Tue, Jul 21 vs Fla
  PA OB TB Tot
Cabrera 1 0 0 1
Headley 1 1 0 2
Blanks 1 0 1 2
Totals 3 1 1 5

Blanks hits first big-league homer; left-center field, upper tank.

Wed, Jul 22 vs Fla
  PA OB TB Tot
Cabrera 1 0 0 1
Venable 1 0 0 1
Macias 1 0 0 1
Blanks 1 1 0 2
Totals 4 1 0 5

 

Thu, Jul 23 at Phi
  PA OB TB Tot
Cabrera 1 1 0 2
Headley 1 0 0 1
Blanks 1 1 1 3
Totals 3 2 1 6

Blanks hits second big-league homer.

Fri, Jul 24 at Was
  PA OB TB Tot
Cabrera 1 0 0 1
Headley 1 1 0 2
Blanks 1 0 0 1
Totals 3 1 0 4
  End Eff Pwr Tot
Latos 1 0 0 1

Latos records first big-league win.

Sat, Jul 25 at Was
  PA OB TB Tot
Cabrera 1 1 1 3
Macias 1 0 0 1
Totals 2 1 1 4

Cabrera knocks two singles and a double, steals a base.

Sun, Jul 26 at Was
  PA OB TB Tot
Cabrera 1 1 0 2
Venable 1 0 0 1
Headley 1 0 0 1
Blanks 1 0 1 2
Totals 4 1 1 6

Blanks homers again.

Individual Totals
  7/20-7/26 Since ASB
  PA OB TB Tot B% PA OB TB Tot B%
Blanks 5 2 3 10 .500 6 3 3 12 .500
Headley 5 2 0 7 .286 8 3 1 12 .333
Cabrera 7 4 1 12 .417 11 4 1 16 .313
Venable 2 0 0 2 .000 6 1 0 7 .143
Macias 2 0 0 2 .000 2 0 0 2 .000
Totals 21 8 4 33 .364 33 11 5 49 .327
 
  7/20-7/26 Since ASB  
  End Eff Pwr Tot End Eff Pwr Tot
Latos 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2  

Again, these are crude measurements. For the hitters, we’re answering the following questions:

  • Did he play?
  • Did he reach base?
  • Did he drive the ball?

The totals include another number: B% is the percentage of points accumulated as a result of actually doing something (as opposed to merely collecting the requisite number of plate appearances).

Benchmarks? I have no idea; I just concocted this to amuse myself. The minimum requirement to score 50% is 2-for-4, and if you go 2-for-4 — even if it’s “only” two singles — that’s a 1000 OPS (to say nothing of the .500 BA), which is spectacular.

Of course, it’s also possible to accumulate “achievement” points without getting credit for “being there” (e.g., Headley’s July 18 pinch-homer), although that probably won’t happen often. Without taking the time to work it out (because, really, this is nothing more than a toy), I’m guessing that anything above 35-40% will be good. We’ll see.

For the pitchers, we’re answering the following questions:

  • Did he pitch?
  • Was he efficient?
  • Did he put the ball past hitters?

For the team, I’m hoping for a score of 10 or more in a game. And I’d like to see the numbers improve over time.

Anywho, best not to take this too seriously; we’re just trying to make the rest of the year more fun. I’ll run these Modified Box Scores and update individual totals each week for grins. If nothing else, it gives us a reason to keep paying attention.

Fixing the Future

Tom Krasovic slammed the Padres right good earlier in the week. I can’t speak to the incidents involving unnamed young players appearing “overly comfortable” in the clubhouse because I don’t have the type of access Krasovic has earned, but assuming they are true (and Kras has proven to be a very reliable source over the years), this is disturbing.

Krasovic makes some other interesting observations as well:

Performance is taking a back seat to dollar imperatives. Like when Brian Giles flat-lined well below .200 for more than two months, yet the Padres refused to bench him. The front office was desperate to unload Giles’ $9 million salary and believed the only way to do it was to play Giles and hope he got hot. He never did.

Yep. And it wasn’t a bad idea, except for the part where Giles never caught fire. Assuming there are no takers when he returns from the disabled list, the Padres would do well to release him. Giles is this year’s Jim Edmonds: old, expensive, hurt, and potentially useful to a team that isn’t gunning for 100 losses.

I believe Giles has some production left in him yet, although based on his performance so far this season, who in their right mind would pay the Padres anything for the right to discover this for themselves? I’ve enjoyed watching Giles play over the years, and the guy gets unfairly criticized for not being Jason Bay (never mind that Jason Bay wasn’t Jason Bay back then), but it’s time for him to go regardless of whether the front office can work a trade with some other team. At this point, being able to stick guys like Kyle Blanks, Drew Macias, and Will Venable in the lineup every day is return enough.

Speaking of which, I wonder how much longer the Padres can hold onto Kevin Kouzmanoff? I’ve been floating the idea of trading him for the better part of the past two seasons, but with his offensive game continuing to spiral downard (.278 OBP?), it’s hard to imagine that he’ll fetch much. He’s Khalil Greene with a more desirable contract and less defensive utility.

The idea of trying to land a guy like Kevin Slowey and change, which made some sense 14 months ago, now seems downright laughable. I would be happy with what the Padres got for Khalil, a couple of minor-league relievers.

I’ve long been a fan of Kouz, but his continued presence is keeping Headley in left field. Even if Kouz re-establishes himself offensively (more likely to happen somewhere other than Petco Park, where he is a career .239/.286/.394 hitter), he isn’t young or good enough to be a player around whom a team builds.

Headley probably isn’t either, but he’s got a better chance of becoming that guy than Kouz does. And Headley has an even better chance of becoming that guy if the Padres stop monkeying around with this outfield experiment that isn’t working.

Put Headley back at third base now, before he forgets how to play the position. The Padres have stuck him there a few times this year and the results haven’t been pretty. He’s made a few mental errors because he’s not not playing the position often enough to let his instincts guide him. The only way to remedy the situation is by getting him more reps.

Getting back to Krasovic’s article, he also is critical of Sandy Alderson’s efforts to help rebuild the farm system. Kras identifies one point of contention that I’ve long had with the Padres draft strategy, which is the infatuation with pitchers who have more command than stuff. Josh Geer and Cesar Ramos were never the answer to any questions other than, “How do we keep from producing useful big-league pitchers?”

That being said, it’s not Alderson’s fault that Cesar Carrillo — who did have stuff — got hurt. (And let us not forget Latos.)

Where Krasovic’s otherwise solid critique falters is in its omission of the two most important aspects of Alderson’s tenure as it relates to the farm system:

  • Under Alderson, the Padres took steps to ensure that there would not be another Matt Bush situation. I’m not referring to the fact that Bush was a total bust — that happens. I’m talking about the collapse in process that led the Padres to abandon their stated intent of selecting Stephen Drew, Jeff Niemann, or Jered Weaver (whom they had been targeting for months) with the first pick overall in 2004 and settling on Bush mere days before the draft (and apparently without conducting due diligence) to save a few bucks. Although technically the Padres did save money, at least Drew or Weaver would have given them return on investment beyond making apologies to a judge. Alderson was asked to fix a broken process, which he did. We can debate the efficacy of the process he instilled, but at least there is one — and it appears to be on the verge of bearing fruit.
  • Alderson also oversaw estabishment of the Padres Dominican facility, which immediately made them players on the international market. The kids they have signed so far are light-years away (and one has been suspended for testing positive), but isn’t it nice to see the team finally competing on this front? Would the academy have been built under someone else’s leadership? Maybe, but it wasn’t. That is part of Alderson’s legacy, and although it’s way too early to judge whether (and to what degree) that initiative has been successful, the man deserves credit for putting the Padres back on the map in Latin America.

Still, Krasovic nails the big picture. Despite some bright spots — Blanks, Cabrera, Headley, maybe Tim Stauffer — this team is in bad shape. I don’t think it’s as bleak as some folks suggest (Kevin Towers has lost his touch because he swapped spare parts with his counterpart in Baltimore?), but this is not going to be quick or easy.

It won’t be smooth or jazz either, but that’s not your problem unless you’re rich and have no taste. Oh, and if you are, do us all a favor and roll up the top on your Mercedes because nobody else wants to hear that.

Will I Lose My Sight if I Watch, or Just My Lunch?

by Geoff Young on Jul 20, 2009 (5) Comments

Apparently the Padres still have games to play. What a relief…

Adrian Hits the Skids

I was thinking about whether Adrian Gonzalez’s recent slide might be a result of his being tired and whether he should take a day or two off. Then I realized that I don’t care how he performs this year as long as he’s good to go for 2010.

My priorities for Adrian are to keep him happy and healthy. If that means letting him play every day, fine. If that means hanging onto Edgar a little longer, so be it (just don’t stick him at second base when Mat Latos is pitching; the kid should have someone behind him that can make plays).

Adrian goes through a funk every summer, but nothing like what he’s run into this year. In ’07, he got off to a strong start, then went cold for about six weeks, and then finished about the way he began (dates are arbitrary, kinda like streaks):

Adrian Gonzalez, 2007
  PA BA OBP SLG HR BB SO
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
4/3/07 – 6/17/07 305 .297 .364 .542 14 29 61
6/18/07 – 8/1/07 160 .208 .269 .326 2 13 35
8/2/07 – 10/1/07 255 .310 .376 .563 14 23 44

Last year, Adrian started off even stronger, went into a more prolonged funk, and then went nuts to end the season:

Adrian Gonzalez, 2008
  PA BA OBP SLG HR BB SO
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
3/31/08 – 6/25/08 347 .294 .366 .552 21 32 67
6/26/08 – 9/10/08 281 .247 .342 .395 8 33 58
9/11/08 – 9/28/08 72 .333 .417 .746 7 9 17

It’s almost like the hotter Adrian starts, the worse he slumps:

Adrian Gonzalez, 2009
  PA BA OBP SLG HR BB SO
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
4/6/09 – 6/2/09 222 .292 .410 .670 22 36 41
6/3/09 – 7/19/09 171 .187 .363 .299 2 36 28
7/20/09 – ??

Adrian’s SLG over the past 40 games is identical to those of Bruce Benedict or Julio Cruz for their careers. That’s not good.

Adrian’s current struggles started on June 3, the day Scott Hairston landed on the disabled list. A coincidence? My earlier suggestion notwithstanding, yeah, probably.

Gwynn Hits the Ground

In response to my poking fun at the U-T’s Chris Jenkins for ignoring sample size when waxing poetic about Tony Gwynn Jr.’s hot start with the Padres, I’ve had people ask me why I hate Gwynn. The answer is, I don’t hate him.

Gwynn seems like a good kid, and for his sake as well as that of the Padres, I hope he turns into something. It’s just that given the evidence of what Gwynn has done so far and how ballplayers typically develop, I don’t like his chances.

That’s no more or less personal than my feelings on gravity. When I say that what goes up must come down, it’s not because I hate the thing that went up, it’s because that’s just the way reality works.

Gwynn is 26 years old. Here’s a look at his credentials:

Tony Gwynn Jr., Bit by Bit
  PA BA OBP SLG
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
minors, 2003-2009 2673 .275 .349 .345
majors, 2006-2008 263 .248 .300 .298
majors, first 21 games 2009 81 .333 .432 .464
majors, since then 2009 124 .272 .323 .333

Can you spot the outlier? Anything is possible, but those numbers do not tell the story of a successful big-league outfielder.

Maybe Gwynn will be the exception. That would be fun.

Hairston Hits the Road

Speaking of Hairston, he was shipped to the A’s for three pitchers. I’m sorry to see him go. I’ll not soon forget Hairston’s performance down the stretch in ’07 (including one near-heroic moment in Game 163) and I hope he does well in Oakland.

Hairston’s stint with the Padres turned out to be quite productive. In 669 plate appearances, he hit .270/.330/.520 (130 OPS+) with 35 homers. In the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual I called him a poor man’s Gary Roenicke, but Hairston actually hit more like a better Alfonso Soriano.

Hairston also owns a career line of .285/.346/.535 at Petco Park, which is hard to do. Adrian, for example, has hit .264/.358/.443 there.

That being said, I understand why the Padres moved Hairston. As anyone who has watched the Pads and their 80 ERA+ this year can attest, they desperately need pitching.

Am I super excited about the arms they got in return? Not really, although Sean Gallagher sounds somewhat intriguing. Then again, the Padres gave up almost nothing (Leo Rosales) to get Hairston, and I’m guessing that the three arms they picked up from the A’s will combine to produce more than Rosales will.

This strikes me as a trade that should help both clubs. The Padres have plenty of good outfielders and not enough good pitchers. Dealing from strength to address a weakness usually makes sense.

As for the A’s, they get a decent starting center fielder (and potentially fantastic fourth outfielder) who is in the prime of his career for the price of guys who weren’t in the immediate plans. What’s not to like?

My colleague at Hardball Times (and former boss at MVN) Evan Brunell doesn’t think the Padres did well. He may be right, but his reasons are wrong:

To win in this extreme pitcher’s park, you need young, core offensive players who grow up used to the park and can get past its failings. This is what players such as Chase Headley, Kyle Blanks and Will Venable are going through. But instead of stacking offensive depth in the (likely) event that some of these hitters can’t make the adjustment, they’re stacking depth in the one area they’ll never be found wanting.

Uh, no. The hitting will always look like a weakness in Petco Park unless you adjust for how it plays. Granted, this year the offense has stunk, but there are some talented young hitters either already here or on the way. With the exception of Mat Latos, whose timetable has been accelerated beydond anyone’s imagination, the same cannot be said of the pitching.

As for the claim that the Padres are “stacking depth in the one area they’ll never be found wanting,” unless I misunderstand the word “never,” I’m pretty sure that’s not true. I believe the proper term for this year’s staff is “epic fail.”

So, yeah, the Padres have been found wanting in that area. Just a tad.

Blast from the Past

  • Interview: Troy Johnson — In which we chat with the host of the short-lived but much-loved Outta Left Field television program. A small sample:

    Dream segment would have to include Fred Kendall, Eric Owens, Bip Roberts, Craig Lefferts, a resuscitated Ray Kroc, the one dude who we took out of a beer league and put on first base. We’d sit around and talk about North Korean politics, Fugazi’s last album, and how great the San Diego bench players have been this year. I’ve always been a fan of the team’s scrappers — the Chris Gomezes of our little world. Of course, Jerry would be there calling a homer a strikeout, Gwynn would belly laugh in the general vicinity, Dave Campbell would say something grumpy, and Garvey would pose like a bodybuilding politician. And hopefully Luis DeLeon would pop by, because he was a trailblazer in bling.

Jonathan Sanchez Beats Miss Piggy

Just before the All-Star break, the Padres were no-hit by Jonathan Sanchez in San Francisco. I missed the game because, in a display of compassion unparalleled by any inanimate object known to me, my television broke a day earlier.

That didn’t keep me from coming up with two snappy lines:

  • Getting no-hit by Jonathan Sanchez is like losing a beauty pageant to Miss Piggy.
  • No-hitting the Padres is like beating Miss Piggy in a beauty pageant.

Really. I’m dropping Miss Piggy references.

Anyway, while Sanchez was doing his thing, we watched Scott Walker: 30 Century Man on the computer. If you’re into trippy music, you might enjoy the film. It’s kind of in the vein of Thirty Two Short Films About Glenn Gould or Mayor of the Sunset Strip. I won’t say it was high art, but then, neither is Jonathan Sanchez no-hitting the Padres.

I’d planned to end this segment by expressing my hope for a Jandek movie. Now I see that someone has ruined my joke by actually making one.

Thanks. Thanks a lot.

Everyone Hits Geer

It’s great to see Tim Stauffer back with the big club. After he got hit hard in 2007 and missed all of last season due to injury, I’d sort of figured his career was over. I’m glad to see that’s not the case… not yet, anyway.

I first became a Stauffer fan when he came clean about a pre-existing shoulder condition between the time the Padres took him with the #4 pick overall in 2003 and when he signed. Stauffer’s honesty and integrity cost him a good chunk of change; it would be nice to see such behavior rewarded.

He also plays a key role in one of my favorite baseball books, Jim Collins’ The Last Best League. Here’s hoping Stauffer can make the most of his second opportunity.

Speaking of pitchers drafted by the Padres, Latos is up with the big club after starting the year in Low-A ball, which seems insane but maybe isn’t. I saw his debut in person on Sunday and talked about it at Unfiltered.

Also, my column this week at Hardball Times will discuss the issue of how aggressively teams should promote propsects. Without rewriting that article here, my general thoughts on Latos run as follows:

  • Bill James has noted (Baseball Abstract 1987, p. 203) that for some players, “the minor leagues were just a nuisance from which they learned nothing and in which they lost 20-40% of their productive life as ballplayers.”
  • The Padres pushed Oliver Perez hard several years ago (too hard, in my opinion), and despite some initial success, it hasn’t worked out so well for him.
  • The Royals took another Padres farmhand a few years later — Joakim Soria — and pushed him even harder. The Royals and Soria can’t be anything but pleased with the results.
  • Latos is not Perez; neither is he Soria. Every snowflake is different.
  • The current staff is putrid — not as in, “they’re not going to win many games this year,” but as in, “there isn’t really much here that will be of use to anyone next year, so maybe we should try finding some solutions now rather than wait until winter.”
  • You and I don’t know Latos well enough to say whether he is ready. I imagine (and hope) that the Padres, who have worked closely with the young man, have a better grasp of his capabilities.
  • Starting the arbitration clock early is a concern. At the same time, so is the possiblity that Latos is one of those players for whom the minor leagues are a “nuisance,” in which case wringing one’s hands over arbitration seems rather petty.
  • There’s something to be said for having Latos work with Darren Balsley, the best pitching coach in the system, sooner rather than later.
  • I wouldn’t mind seeing the Padres give Latos — and I wish I’d thought of this myself — the Earl Weaver treatment.

Once upon a time, the rapid ascent of Latos would have bothered me a lot. Now I am less certain of what I once thought I knew. Keeping him in the minors might be the safer move, but I’m not sure it’s the better move.

Shifting gears (get it?), a part of me hopes that Josh Geer remains in the rotation long enough to qualify for the ERA title. Geer’s ERA+ currently sits at 62. Since 1901, only two qualifiers have posted a lower ERA+ (Gene Wright, 58 in 1903; Rube Bressler, 56 in 1915). Since the Padres joined MLB, the only pitcher within shouting distance of Geer is Jose Lima, who posted a 63 OPS+ for the Royals in 2005.

With runners on base, Geer has been remarkable. Opponents are hitting .322/.365/.653 against him in those situations. That’s basically Juan Gonzalez ’96 if you’re scoring at home.

Geer also is almost assured of breaking the Padres record for homers allowed in a season. Kevin Jarvis and Bobby J. Jones each allowed 37 in 2001. Geer is at 23 in 92 2/3 innings. Actually, here’s a fun comparison:

  • Adrian: 393 PA, 24 HR, 16.38 PA/HR
  • Geer: 394 PA, 23 HR, 17.13 PA/HR

Okay, maybe “fun” isn’t the right word.

Krasovic Hits the Blogosphere

Former San Diego Union-Tribune Padres beat reporter Tom Krasovic is up and running at Inside the Padres. I forget if I commented on his departure at the time, but the U-T made a huge mistake in letting Krasovic go. He demonstrated a consistent ability and desire to figure out what the organization was trying to accomplish, which isn’t something all baseball writers in this town can claim.

I don’t pretend to understand all the nuances of why newspapers are failing, but it seems to me that getting rid of top talent isn’t helping matters. Anyway, for his sake and ours, it’s good to see Kras “out there” covering the Padres again.

Oh, and we got a new television on Friday, so now I can watch the games again. I’ll just have to be careful what I eat.

Takin’ a Break

by Geoff Young on Jun 29, 2009 (7) Comments

Life is good, but there’s a little too much of it right now so I’m taking some time off. Ducksnorts will resume publication after the All-Star break.

In the meantime, I’ll continue to publish at Hardball Times and Unfiltered. Also, if you do the Twittter thing, I sometimes offer witty/insightful/stupid comments during games. Feel free to follow along at twitter.com/ducksnorts if you’re so inclined.

See you at one of those places, or we’ll meet back here toward the end of July. Thanks, and peace.

Geoff

Is Life Ever Good Enough?

by Geoff Young on Jun 22, 2009 (17) Comments

I use baseball to mark the passage of time. The memory of specific events helps keep me grounded in a world that often makes less sense than I’d like it to make (forgive the fact that I grew up rooting for the Dodgers):

  • 1981 — Fernandomania; Rick Monday’s homer off Steve Rogers in Montreal
  • 1988 — Kirk Gibson and Dennis Eckersley (actually, I remember taking a girl named Cindy to dinner in Old Town instead of watching the game)
  • 1996 — Steve Finley and Felix Rodriguez; Ken Caminiti’s “Snickers game” in Monterrey; sweep of the Dodgers in LA to win the NL West
  • 1998 — Steve Finley and Felix Rodriguez [so much for memory; thanks to reader Jake for the catch]; Kevin Brown and Greg Vaughn in the regular season; Sterling Hitchcock and Jim Leyritz in the playoffs
  • 2007 — Trevor Hoffman, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Matt Holiday; late-season heroics of Milton Bradley and Scott Hairston; drive to Cooperstown for Tony Gwynn Sr.’s induction into the Hall of Fame

I could continue, but the point is that these represent stops along the way to wherever I’m headed. I record them in my mind and on paper to the best of my ability so I can recall them again later and share memories with others. Like sending postcards to my future self and anyone else who might care to receive them.

This season is different. I’m enjoying the games — well, sort of — because that is what I do. But if you ask me 10 years from now what I remember about 2009, I will tell you this:

  • My knee failed
  • My dog died
  • My team sucked

It all becomes one jumbled mess that roughly translates as, “Isn’t there anything better than this?” And of course, there is; it’s just difficult to appreciate or even recognize it at the time. The flip side is that without such experiences, maybe life is never good enough.

* * *

I returned to the day job and started physical therapy on Tuesday, the combination of which kicked my ass from here to Lake Elsinore. Stopped for Chinese on the way home from therapy. Ate dinner and tried to watch the game. Made it through the first three innings — right to when Kevin Correia served up a meatball to Franklin Gutierrez, who launched it into a ridiculous spot well beyond the fence in left-center.

Went to bed after that. Yeah, around 8 p.m. — what can I say, I’m a party animal. Woke up briefly to see the Mariners score three in the ninth, then fell asleep again.

* * *

The U-T’s Chris Jenkins loves Gwynn’s presence on the team. There’s a cute little chart showing how putrid (.248/.300/.298) Gwynn was before he came to the Padres and how great (.333/.432/.464) he has been in his first 21 games in San Diego.

It’s cool to see a hometown kid jump-start his career with the local nine. Reminds me of when Marcus Giles came here in 2007 and hit .322/.365/.471 in his first 21 games. That was awesome.

* * *

Chris Young has joined Jake Peavy on the disabled list. Inflamed right shoulder. I’d wondered during his last start whether something might not be right with Young.

On the one hand, I never like to see a guy get hurt. On the other, if this explains his ineffectiveness, then maybe time to recover is what he needs.

As I age and put more wear and tear on the body, I find myself becoming increasingly sympathetic to professional athletes. They endure tremendous physical (and mental) stress for the sake of earning an admittedly handsome paycheck. Even if I had the talent and desire, I’m not sure that’s a tradeoff I could bring myself to make.

When I hear people refer to a particular procedure as “routine,” I wonder if they maintain that opinion when confronted with surgery on their own body (or that of a loved one). Surgery is difficult. Rehab is difficult. Anyone who claims otherwise is full of crap.

Gee, Geoff, bitter much?

Okay, fine. Here’s my fortune cookie:

Remember to share good fortune as well as bad with your friends.

Good advice. The kung pao shrimp was delicious.

* * *

Luke Gregerson to the disabled list. Strained right shoulder. I suspected that the Padres might be working him too hard but never studied the issue. Maybe they were, maybe not. Pitchers get hurt.

* * *

The Padres signed Brian Lawrence to a minor-league contract. When I think of Lawrence, I remember being laughed at by strangers at an Arizona Fall League game when Mrs. Ducksnorts phoned with the news and I repeated incredulously to anyone within earshot that he had been traded to the Washington Nationals straight up for Vinny Castilla (or as we now like to say, “Nothing from nothing leaves nothing“).

I hope Lawrence pitches for the big club. Then we can take a break from the current crappy season and reminisce about past crappy seasons, like 2001, when Lawrence led the Padres with 12 wins. Find Brett Tomko, Brian Tollberg, and at least one Bobby Jones, and we could totally put the band back together.

* * *

I’m wearing shoes for the first time in a month. Relearning how to walk. One foot in front of the other. It’s harder than it looks.

* * *

The Padres lost again on Wednesday. The good Chad Gaudin showed up for three innings — threw hard, with movement; missed bats — before imploding in the fourth.

The bullpen kept the game close, but offensive help never arrived. The best opportunity came in the eighth, when Kouzmanoff grounded to third with the bases loaded to end the threat without a score.

In the fourth, Chase Headley crushed a Garrett Olson pitch into the upper deck of the Western Metal building. First home run of the year batting right handed. I’d forgotten he could do that.

Headley and Kouz have eerily similar numbers so far in 2009:

Headley and Kouz, 2009
  PA BA OBP SLG OPS+
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are through games of June 21, 2009.
Headley 239 .228 .305 .358 84
Kouzmanoff 269 .238 .283 .393 86

Their career lines aren’t very different either:

Headley and Kouz, Career
  BA OBP SLG OPS+
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are through games of June 21, 2009.
Headley .252 .325 .393 97
Kouzmanoff .259 .306 .433 99

The Padres would do well to trade one of them, preferably the one that is two years older and arbitration eligible after the season. I love Kouz, but I’m convinced that the only way Headley realizes his potential is by returning to his natural position. Then he can focus more on hitting and less on trying not to hurt anyone in the outfield.

* * *

Listened to the Beavers and Tacoma Rainiers on radio. Lawrence pitched a gem — 6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 S0 — in his Beavers debut. Tacoma announcer Mike Curto noted that Lawrence’s fastball ran mid-80s with movement. Curto also sang the praises of the rehabbing Everth Cabrera, calling him (I’m going from memory here) “far and away the best defensive shortstop we’ve seen in the PCL this year.”

* * *

The Padres finally won a game. Took 10 innings and the Mariners pitching to Adrian. Fittingly, the game wasn’t televised.

Josh Geer surrendered two solo homers in six innings. He’s allowed 16 in 64 2/3 innings this year. Daniel at Friar Forecast declares that Geer “is not good,” to which I add that the sun rises in the east and the pope is Catholic.

Adrian went 4-for-4 with a homer and a walk. Scored the winning run. Kudos to Seattle for pitching to him, even though it was a stupid thing to do.

* * *

The buzz surrounding Kyle Blanks’ recall from Portland isn’t as deafening as was Headley’s around the same time last year, but it has attracted attention. I love watching people see him play for the first time. It’s always a two-step process:

  1. Holy crap, that dude is huge; no way he can play the outfield
  2. Hey, he moves around pretty good; maybe he can

You can’t get to that second step without passing through the first. I don’t know why; it’s just one of those mysteries of life, like how some people think Dane Cook is funny.

* * *

Wade LeBlanc struggled with command in his 2009 debut. Left with the bases loaded and nobody out in the fourth. His replacement, Josh Banks, tossed three scoreless innings.

After Mike Adams preserved the Padres’ 5-3 lead through the seventh, Edward Mujica endured a rare bad outing. Got the first two outs in the eighth and then coughed up three runs. The A’s added another against Joe Thatcher in the ninth to make the score 7-5.

Second base umpire Brian Knight had a tough night. In the top of the sixth, with Orlando Cabrera at the plate, Matt Holliday was caught stealing to end the inning. Knight didn’t see it that way and Holliday, who has a knack for being ruled safe against the Padres when he isn’t, was awarded second base. Holliday was stranded when Cabrera flied to center on the 15th pitch of his 10-minute at-bat. Cabrera later drove home the game-winning run and credited the marathon battle against Banks with helping him to find his comfort zone at the plate. So, thanks for that, Brian Knight.

In the bottom of the sixth, Everth Cabrera and Gwynn reached base to start the frame. Then David Eckstein tapped a weak grounder toward second. Adam Kennedy made a diving back-handed stop and flipped wildly to Orlando Cabrera covering second. Gwynn jumped to avoid Kennedy, who was sprawled out across the basepath. Gwynn’s leap caused him to land a few feet beyond the bag. Cabrera retrieved the ball, then swiped at a retreating Gwynn. It looked like Cabrera caught only air, but Knight called Gwynn out.

Instead of bases loaded and nobody out with Adrian due up, the Padres had runners at the corners and one out. With a base open, the A’s did the sensible thing and intentionally walked Adrian. The next batter, Kouzmanoff, singled to left, driving home two and giving the Padres the lead. Those runs were nice, but one wonders how many more might have scored had Gwynn been ruled safe.

On the bright side, Everth Cabrera had some nice plate appearances and looked terrific at shortstop. Made two fine plays in the seventh, including one deep in the hole to rob Nomar Garciaparra for the final out. Cabrera had no business getting to that ball, let alone making a throw strong enough and accurate enough to nail Nomar.

Now that I’ve seen Cabrera a little, I get the comparisons to Rafael Furcal. I’m not sure it’s the best idea to place that burden of expectation on a kid who played in Low-A ball last year, but I get why people do it. Cabrera has skills.

* * *

With Cabrera back on the active roster and apparently taking over as starting shortstop, Bud Black has channeled his inner Tony LaRussa and started batting the pitcher eighth. John Beamer, my colleague at Hardball Times, seems to think there is merit in this strategy. Good enough for me — at least until some presents compelling evidence to the contrary.

* * *

I have other bones to pick from Friday night’s contest, the most obvious being why Eckstein didn’t bunt with Gwynn on first and nobody out in the eighth inning of a one-run game. Eckstein leads the team with seven sacrifice hits (three of which have come in the first inning, which — don’t get me started), so it’s not like he can’t do it. And with the Padres down, 6-5, late in the game and Adrian on deck, it seems an obvious call.

Instead he swings his way to an 0-2 count before rolling into a double play. Now Adrian bats with two outs and nobody on. Sure, the A’s would have walked Adrian with Gwynn on second and one out, but they do that anyway. At least in the other scenario, there’s a runner in scoring position for Kouzmanoff. As it stands, Kouz’s single moves Adrian to second, where he is left when Headley grounds out to end the inning.

Would Kouzmanoff have driven home the tying run had there been two on and two out? I don’t know, but it might have been nice to find out.

Eh, I’ve already whined too much about this. What does one game matter? That’s the difference between, what, picking fifth in next year’s draft and picking sixth?

I care a lot.

* * *

Matthew Whipps at BDD notes that teams aren’t pitching to Albert Pujols. First off, duh. Second, they aren’t pitching to Adrian either, at least not when he can hurt them:

Don’t Go There
  PA BB IBB BB/PA
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are through games of June 21, 2009.
With RISP 78 29 10 .372
Bases empty 155 20 0 .129

Adrian is being walked in 37.2% of his plate appearances when runners are in scoring position. As a reference point, that number was 15.4% last year and 11.5% in 2007. So yeah, teams have changed their approach a little.

* * *

The Padres are becoming unwatchable again. Gwynn keeps getting on base, and it’s cool that Blanks notched his first big-league hit (a blooper to left-center on a 1-2 pitch down and away from Michael Wuertz) in the sixth inning of Saturday night’s contest, but yuck.

Everth Cabrera showed youthful exhuberance on a triple to right-center in the fifth and youthful inexperience on two sloppy errors. He also looked helpless against Wuertz’s slider, although to be fair, so did everyone else. Wuertz struck out four of the seven batters he faced.

New catcher Eliezer Alfonzo has been with the club for less than a week and already I’ve seen enough. He hacks at everything and has trouble catching baseballs, being charged with two passed balls on Saturday. He’s Wiki Gonzalez without the cool name. Well, I guess Eliezer is kind of a cool name. Still, I don’t want to see him or Gonzalez behind the dish.

The third inning was fun if you’re a fan of lousy execution. Having scored twice, the Padres loaded the bases with nobody out and failed to tack on any additional runs. Adrian fanned on three pitches and Headley rolled over on an 0-1 pitch for an easy 5-3 double play. He’s mastered that; time to try something else, preferably something that helps the Padres.

Blanks looked comfortable in left field. Made one nice catch running to his left and fielded a couple more balls without incident.

* * *

I almost didn’t include this because I’m not sure what to do with it, but maybe you have some ideas:

Scoring Few or Many Runs
  0-4 Runs 5+ Runs  
  W L Pct W L Pct Diff
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are through games of June 21, 2009.
Dodgers 15 19 .441 31 5 .861 +.420
Giants 14 27 .341 23 4 .852 +.511
Rockies 9 25 .265 27 8 .771 +.506
Padres 15 27 .357 15 11 .577 +.220
Diamondbacks 9 33 .214 20 8 .714 +.500
MLB 301 813 .270 730 218 .770 +.500

The Padres are better than MLB average when scoring four runs or fewer. They are terrible when scoring five or more. I was hoping to learn something about the pitching staff, but I’m not there yet. Right now I just have intriguing data, which is fine.

I should also note that the Padres started the season 7-0 in games in which they score five runs or more. Since April 19, they are 8-11 in such contests.

* * *

Been in a Mingus state of mind. Chaos has its place. Sometimes you notice things you might otherwise miss.

Accomplishments from the past week that I never thought I’d have cause to celebrate: Took a standing shower, bent my leg 75 degrees, put on my own shoes, sat in a restaurant without pain and enjoyed a good meal with friends.

I try not to take things for granted, but that doesn’t always keep me from doing it. The Padres are playing infuriatingly erratic baseball and they frustrate the heck out of me, but this was a good week.

When things aren’t going well, people joke that “at least you have your health.” Let me assure you that your health is not a bad thing to have. A baseball team that doesn’t suck is nice, too, but you can live comfortably without that. I’m just sayin’.

* * *

I took Sunday off, which seemed to help the Padres and me. Correia pitched well again. Henry Blanco and Kouz homered.

I will keep taking a day or two off each week. It is how I will survive the season with whatever passes for sanity intact. Going forward, though, I’ll watch Correia’s starts. I’ll skip Geer’s or Gaudin’s. I’m leaning toward Gaudin because of his tendency to miss the strike zone.

I don’t relish the thought of watching Geer, but at least with him, I might get to see Home Run Derby. There is entertainment value in that.

Brutal Is As Brutal Does

by Geoff Young on Jun 15, 2009 (11) Comments

The Padres are boring. That’s the word on the street… a street apparently filled with people who don’t like baseball.

Just give me a game to watch and the rest will take care of itself. There is no pressure with this team, no expectation of success. Every win is a surprise, a gift.

Sometimes I believe this. Usually right before things get ugly.

* * *

Jake Peavy was effective but not dominant on Monday night. Gave up three runs, although all could have been avoided with better defense behind him.

In the fourth, Chase Headley misplayed a drive off the bat of Chris Snyder into a single and an error. Headley couldn’t decide whether to catch the ball or play it on a hop, so he did neither and let it skip past him instead, allowing Gerardo Parra to score Arizona’s first run. After Eric Byrnes then flied to right for what should have been the final out, Josh Whitesell singled home Snyder to make the score 2-0.

In the sixth, Kevin Kouzmanoff muffed a grounder to his right. Kouz mistimed his dive and the ball kicked off his glove for what was ruled a single that brought home Parra. It was a tough play, but one that should have ended the inning.

Kouz redeemed himself by driving in four of the Padres’ six runs and making Arizona pay for repeatedly putting Adrian Gonzalez on base. Kouz got some help. His second two-RBI hit, a double in the seventh, was a fly to left-center that Byrnes tracked down and then failed to catch when he forgot to extend his arm toward the ball.

Greg Burke worked a scoreless eighth. Two fly balls to center — one well struck — and a swinging strikeout of Snyder to end it.

Mike Adams, activated from the disabled list before the game, warmed up during the bottom of the eighth. He would have made his 2009 debut in the ninth had the Pads extended their 6-3 lead.

But they didn’t, so Heath Bell came on instead. Again. Bell had thrown a total of 52 pitches over the previous two days and his command was off — kept elevating the fastball — but he battled and pitched smart.

After putting two men on base and falling behind, 2-0, to Mark Reynolds, Bell evened the count with curve balls. He then got Reynolds to chase a high 95-mph fastball for the second out. Felipe Lopez followed with an easy grounder to second base that ended the contest.

* * *

I listened to the Beavers game on the radio. Kyle Blanks collected three singles — two didn’t leave the infield, the other was a broken-bat blooper. They look like line drives in the box score.

* * *

As expected, the Washington Nationals selected SDSU right-hander Stephen Strasburg with the first pick overall in the 2009 draft. I’ve written about Strasburg at Baseball Daily Digest and Baseball Prospectus, so now I’ll just say congratulations and best of luck. Between Strasburg and USD’s Brian Matusz, who went fourth overall to the Baltimore Orioles in 2008, we’ve gotten spoiled with some great pitching talent here in San Diego over the past few years.

The Padres took “my guy,” Georgia high-school outfielder Donavan Tate, with their first pick (third overall). He has committed to playing football at the University of North Carolina, which could make him a tough sign, but I love Tate’s upside and the fact that the Padres don’t appear to fear negotiating with him and agent Scott Boras.

Tate is mentioned as a potential five-tool player, although some people question his bat. In terms of comparable talents, I won’t mention specific names that I’ve heard because that is second-hand information and it creates unreasonable expectations. (If you’re curious, Myron offers a few comps at Another Padres Blog.) The range falls between guys that enjoyed modest success at the big-league level and perennial All-Stars.

As Craig at 619 Sports notes, there is real risk with this pick, and the Padres don’t have a great track record when it comes to developing high-school position players. That said, assuming they sign Tate, I’m glad they are at least willing to try. At best, the Padres add a difference maker. At worst, they fail with someone who has a ceiling higher than, say, back-end starter or one-dimensional corner guy. It’s good to see them ditch the comfy grey sweats for a pinstripe suit.

Beyond Tate, the Padres popped a couple more high-risk/high-reward types in the early rounds. They tabbed Texas high-school outfielder Everett Williams (see also Another Padres Blog for more on Williams) in the second and Florida high-school right-hander Keyvius Sampson in the fourth. These kids were mentioned as possible first- or sandwich-round talents. Presumably they slipped for a reason, but I haven’t spoken to anyone who expected either to be available when the Padres made their picks. Nice of the club not to pass up those talents.

Looking for more draft coverage? DePo talks about many of the Padres picks; be sure to read the comments for additional information. Also, the Baseball Prospectus Draft Roundtable (Day 1, Day 2) contains good insights from Kevin Goldstein, Bryan Smith, and Kiley McDaniel.

Paul DePodesta claims there has been no change in draft philosophy (Myron has examined this issue as well at Friar Forecast). Having no knowledge of what happens behind closed doors, I can’t speak to intent or mindset. What I can do is observe the results and note that this looks nothing like what I’d expected from a Padres draft.

That’s a back-handed compliment if ever there was one, but if you look a little closer, you’ll notice an encouraging progression:

  • 2004: Unmitigated disaster. Matt Bush may be the worst #1 pick in MLB history, and the only real hope is 42nd-rounder Kyle Blanks.
  • 2005: Not bad. If first-round pick Cesar Carrillo had stayed healthy, this could have been a very nice draft. Current Padres taken include Headley (second round), Nick Hundley (second), Josh Geer (third), and Will Venable (seventh). Mike Baxter (fourth) could help down the road.
  • 2006: Similar to ’05. Matt Antonelli (first) hasn’t developed as quickly as hoped but has seen action with the big club. Same with second-round pick Wade LeBlanc. Behind them, Chad Huffman (second), Cedric Hunter (third), Craig Cooper (seventh), Mat Latos (11th), and Jeremy McBryde (26th) all show promise. Heck, Latos might be the best prospect in the system.
  • 2007: More of the same. First-rounder Nick Schmidt is looking good after coming back from injuries that delayed the start of his pro career (although I still wish they’d taken Michael Main — his poor start in the Cal League this year notwithstanding — with that pick). Kellen Kulbacki (first), Drew Cumberland (first), Eric Sogard (second), Jeremy Hefner (fifth), and Wynn Pelzer (ninth) could make an impact. Lesser lights include Mitch Canham (first), Cory Luebke (first), and Corey Kluber (fourth). Blemishes include wasting early picks on one-tool outfielders Danny Payne and Brad Chalk, and failing to sign Tommy Toledo (third) and Christian Colon (10th).
  • 2008: Looking good. I wasn’t thrilled with Allan Dykstra as the first pick (full disclosure: “my guy,” Anthony Hewitt, has been awful), but the Padres did well after that. Jaff Decker (first), Logan Forsythe (first), James Darnell (second), Sawyer Carroll (third), and Anthony Bass (fifth) look legit, and there are more intriguing names (Beamer Weems, eighth; Matt Clark, 12th; Chris Wilkes, 23rd) further down the list.

This year appears to be an extension of 2008′s more aggressive approach, and I applaud it. Many of us have been waiting for this for a long time.

Thank you.

* * *

Caught some of Tuesday night’s game. My leg and the Padres’ baserunning were bugging me, so I tuned out midway through the contest. Tony Gwynn Jr. killed a rally in the first by getting thrown out at third on a ball that didn’t quite get away from Dodgers catcher Russell Martin. The Padres still managed to score two runs thanks to a two-out single by Kouzmanoff, but they had a chance to knock Chad Billingsley out early and let him off the hook.

Hundley got thrown out by Martin on a similar play in the fourth. I appreciate the aggresiveness, but I’d appreciate good judgment even more.

Chris Young served up four homers, including two to Andre Ethier, who should never see a strike from Young. In 34 career plate appearances, Ethier is hitting .414/.500/1.103 againt Young, with six home runs. So yeah, don’t go there.

Young has allowed four home runs in a game twice this year, both within the span of a month. After serving up just one homer over his first seven starts, he’s coughed up 11 over his past seven starts, spanning a total of 36 1/3 innings. Small sample or not, that’s Ken Dixon ’87 territory and a dangerous way to live.

* * *

I didn’t watch Wednesday night’s victory — needed a break from all the excitement of this Padres team — but a couple items in the box score caught my eye. First, Kevin Correia worked six strong innings (on short rest, thanks to Chad Gaudin’s unscheduled relief appearance in the 18-inning game). Last week I pointed out that Correia tends to wilt in the middle innings, but this is his second straight start where it didn’t happen, so maybe he made an adjustment. Then again, it could be a fluke. We don’t know yet.

Second, Adrian drew only one walk, ending his streak of two or more in a game at eight. As best as I can tell, this is the longest such streak since at least 1954, the first year for which these records are readily available. Adrian’s batting line during that stretch was surreal:

Adrian Gonzalez, Power Walker
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K BA OBP SLG
20 5 4 1 0 2 3 18 2 .200 .579 .550

Here’s wishing Scott Hairston a speedy recovery.

* * *

I should say something about the Raul Ibanez incident. On the one hand, I can understand why Ibanez would feel upset at being accused of using steroids. On the other, nobody accused him of using steroids.

The blogger at the epicenter, Jerod Morris, speculated that PEDs might be one — among many — possible reason for Ibanez’s hot start. This is hardly the first time a writer has made such speculations about a player (Tom Tango points to Murray Chass’ treatment of Mike Piazza as one example).

Such is the legacy of the steroid era, when many players used PEDs and everyone else turned a blind eye. The subsequent images of Rafael Palmeiro wagging his finger, Mark McGwire refusing to speak, and Jason Giambi making vague apologies linger in our minds. The actions of certain individuals within a group damaged the credibility of all individuals within that group, including the innocent, which leads to my next point.

In his response to Morris’ article (or more accurately, the Philadelphia Inquirer‘s misrepresentation of Morris’ article), Ibanez railed against bloggers:

There should be more credibility than some 42-year-old blogger typing in his mother’s basement. It demeans everything you’ve done with one stroke of the pen.

First off, why does Ibanez — in the current climate of mistrust engendered by steroid use and the attempt to cover it up — seem to think that anyone is above suspicion? I recently wrote about Ibanez’s early-season success at Baseball Prospectus. I didn’t mention steroids because, frankly, that angle didn’t interest me, but I’m missing the part where asking the question (or acknowledging that some folks might wonder about such things) and attempting to examine it is wrong.

Second, Ibanez’s cliched characterization of bloggers is tired and ironic beyond description. He doesn’t want to be lumped in by association with his colleagues who may have cheated, and yet he has no problem calling out all bloggers because of his personal beef with one of them. You could change “some 42-year-old blogger typing in his mother’s basement” to “some bulked-up slugger taking steroids” and reach a similar conclusion about a different set of people… I mean, if sweeping generalizations are your thing.

One good thing to come from all this is it gets people talking. Here is some of what they are saying:

Tango’s article includes an embedded video that features Morris, Inquirer reporter John Gonzalez, and FOX Sports reporter Ken Rosenthal. It’s cringe inducing in spots but worth watching. For one thing, if you didn’t have names associated with the faces, you might be surprised at which panelist is the blogger and which are the professional reporters. Grace and poise aren’t bestowed only on those with a title.

Beyond the superficiality of appearances, there is the deeper issue of trust. A blogger (Morris) noticed the somewhat unlikely output of an aging player (Ibanez) and wondered about the cause. He then investigated and reported findings. A reporter (Gonzalez) subsequently picked up on one part of the story without looking at the whole picture. (As someone who has been misrepresented by a reporter in ways that boggle the imagination, I can say this doesn’t surprise me in the least.) Ibanez then caught wind of Gonzalez’s interpretation of Morris’ original piece and reacted to the former, taking a swipe at Morris and other “basement dwellers” in the process.

To the larger issue, in the video, Rosenthal expresses concern about upholding certain standards. His condescension notwithstanding, he raises some valid points, in light of which I ask the following question: Why is there no outrage at the Philadelphia Inquirer for running a story that misrepresented Morris’ findings and thereby failed to uphold such standards?

I don’t have an answer, but it’s worth considering.

* * *

The ankle that’s been bothering Jake Peavy finally landed him on the disabled list. He’s expected to be out at least a month, possibly longer.

Kevin Towers has mentioned three possible replacements for Peavy in the rotation: Walter Silva (no, thanks), Wade LeBlanc (eh, okay), and Mat Latos (yes, please). Bringing up Latos, who has fewer than 200 professional innings under his belt, comes with risk (Oliver Perez sends his regards). That said, the Padres should know better than anyone whether Latos can handle the jump. If they think he can, then why not?

On the bright side, maybe now Peavy won’t be going anywhere. Great; neither are the Padres.

* * *

Ugly game Friday night in Anaheim. The good news is that Chad Gaudin found the strike zone. The bad news is that… well, he found the strike zone.

Gaudin gave up some fluky bloop hits but he also surrendered two home runs. When the final line shows eight runs on 11 hits over 3+ innings, it’s hard to play the fluke card.

Nice to see the Padres battle back from an early 4-1 defecit to tie the game. Not so nice to see the Angels promptly score five in their half of the fourth to put it out of reach.

Things could have been worse. With runners at the corners, nobody out, and a 2-1 count on Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu got caught trying to swipe second. Then, after Vlad Guerrero drove in Anaheim’s ninth run, Juan Rivera flied to Brian Giles in medium right. Hunter broke home from third but stopped. Giles’ throw sailed over Adrian at first, and Guerrero took off for second. Blanco gunned him down to end the inning on the good ol’ 9-2-4 double play.

Luis Rodriguez came off the disabled list and looked rusty. Worked some good counts but couldn’t catch up to anyone’s fastball and struck out three times. He also made an ill-advised throw home in the fourth that skipped past Blanco and Gaudin for an error.

Gwynn collected a single and two walks. He continues to impress (and surprise) with his approach at the plate. The same cannot be said of his baserunning and defense. Then again, for all my whining about the trade that brought Gwynn to San Diego, Jody Gerut is hitting .136/.240/.136 in a limited role with the Brewers, so what do I know?

Edwin Moreno, recently returned from Triple-A Portland, relieved Gaudin in the sense that gasoline relieves fire. He allowed one inherited run to score, along with two more of his own.

Cla Meredith got into the game. He seems to have become the mopup man, which isn’t a bad role for him given how poorly he fares in crucial situations. Hey, someone has to soak up those innings; it might as well be a guy who can get outs.

Headley grounded into two more double plays. He’s doing that with a greater frequency this year than Jim Rice did over the course of his career. Of course, Rice had a slightly higher ISO than Headley’s .117, which is more in Ralph Garr/Dan Gladden territory. Among left fielders, this year Headley is just behind Carl Crawford and ahead of Denard Span in the ISO department.

When I saw Headley at Elsinore in ’06, he had a refined approach at the plate. He had a plan. I pegged him as a Jeff Cirillo/Bill Mueller type who would hit for a high average, draw walks, and knock the occasional homer

Now he’s up there hacking. Headley has sacrificed the average and the plate discipline for… I don’t know what. At an age (25) when he should be establishing himself as a big leaguer, Headley looks lost. He’s hitting like David Dellucci and playing bad defense in left field. That’s not a winning combination.

Here’s hoping something clicks for Headley soon. Yesterday would be nice.

* * *

I missed Kouzmanoff’s meaningless two-run homer in the seventh. Switched to Thursday night’s Conan O’Brien (TiVo, I love you) after the sixth. Neko Case was the musical guest. She was brilliant. Ditto Norm MacDonald.

There was a fun bit where Conan and Slash went to people’s houses to test out guitars advertised on Craigslist. They didn’t buy any, but Conan picked up a jacket for himself and a girl’s bicycle for Slash, so it wasn’t a total loss.

* * *

Reader LynchMob informs us that friend of Ducksnorts Dirk Hayhurst is back in the big leagues. The Blue Jays recently recalled him and are using him out of the bullpen. Congrats to Dirk, and best of luck!

* * *

Wasn’t aware of Saturday’s earlier start, so by the time I tuned in, the Padres were already down, 4-1. Saw Geer serve up a couple of homers (he allowed a total of four in the game) and Headley get credit for a double on a ball he hit right at Abreu, who clanked it (the scorer came to his senses the next day and changed it to an error). At some point Joe Thatcher came in and gave up Hunter’s third homer of the night, which coincided with my loss of interest in the contest.

Hey, at least I got to see Kouzmanoff’s home run this time. Without that, the final score would have been 9-0 instead of 9-1.

Clutch.

* * *

Pitching is a problem, especially the rotation. The Padres haven’t been able to keep opponents in the yard in June. Both Young and Geer have allowed four home runs in a game this month. They are not the only culprits, though; gopheritis is running rampant throughout the staff:

Tick, Tick, Boom
Mon G BA OBP SLG ISO HR/9 ERA
Apr 22 .276 .353 .422 .146 0.97 4.95
May 28 .230 .311 .374 .144 0.82 3.83
Jun 12 .302 .376 .529 .227 1.75 5.97

With Peavy, the Padres had one of the worst starting rotations in baseball, positing a 5.09 ERA over the season’s first 62 games. Only the Nationals, Phillies, Indians, and Orioles have higher ERAs from their starters. None of those teams has the advantage of playing half its games in what is by far the most pitcher-friendly environment in MLB.

Without Peavy… Well, I’d rather not think about it.

* * *

In his second start of the week on Sunday afternoon, Young couldn’t find the plate. With two out in the second, he walked four straight batters (the first coming to Jeff Mathis — he of the .195/.276/.313 career line) and then gave up a two-RBI single that put the Angels up, 4-0. Mercifully, umpire Marty Foster banged Maicer Izturis at third on the play despite the fact that Izturis arrived ahead of Kouzmanoff’s tag.

Adrian beat out an infield single in the fourth. Hit a cue shot to third base, but the Angels had the shift on so Chone Figgins was playing near the second base bag.

Such fun.

The Padres lost, 6-0. For the three-game series in Anaheim, they were outscored, 26-6, and it wasn’t even that close. The starting pitchers had a miserable weekend:

A Spanking! A Spanking!
IP H R ER HR BB K ERA
11 23 20 20 7 6 6 16.36

Okay, maybe that is a little boring… not to mention embarrassing. On the bright side, five years after the Padres passed on him in the draft, we finally got to see Jered Weaver. He’s pretty good.

* * *

It’s tough to give up on a season in the middle of June, but Corey makes too much sense when he suggests that the Padres may have seen the last of .500 baseball in ’09. There just isn’t enough firepower in the lineup to overcome a pitching staff that looked shaky even before Peavy’s injury.

Silver linings? Well, I still like the draft.

Is It Giving Up if You Never Believed?

by Geoff Young on Jun 08, 2009 (14) Comments

I met a girl at summer camp when I was nine. Laura was 16 and the most beautiful thing I’d ever seen. We exchanged letters for a while, then got on with our lives. In my dream, we meet again for some forgotten reason.

“It’s great to see you,” she says.

“You, too.”

We stare at each other for a few seconds, searching for words.

“Well, uh, I gotta go,” she says.

“Me, too.”

What had we talked about back then?

At least it was only a dream. So awkward when that happens and I’m awake.

* * *

Ten-game home winning streak snapped against the Phillies Monday night. Kevin Correia started, didn’t have much. Got whacked around in the third, was lucky to escape with just the two runs. Served up long home runs to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the fifth, back-to-back.

Utley turned on a fastball up and in, hammered it down the right-field line. How does he keep that ball fair?

Howard’s blast came on a fastball out over the plate. Crushed it 430 feet to dead center. Punch line: He hit it off the end of his bat. Struck out the other four times he came up, mostly chasing breaking balls down and in. Howard can be pitched to, it’s just — well, don’t miss.

The Padres flashed their power in the sixth. Adrian Gonzalez and Scott Hairston went back-to-back off Joe Blanton, both to left. As Daniel at Friar Forecast notes, a ridiculous percentage of Adrian’s fly balls are leaving the yard. (Speaking of Friar Forecast, founder Myron Logan has started something called Another Padre Blog that you should go read.)

Hairston’s shot hit the upper deck facade. He also just missed a game-tying homer off Brad Lidge in the ninth.

Stupid play of the night followed Hairston’s near miss. With Adrian on first, Giles steps to the plate. Lidge bounces a pitch and it kicks away from catcher Carlos Ruiz. Adrian starts chugging toward second, which makes me cringe because I can outrun him, and I’ve got a full leg brace and crutches.

Ruiz recovers the ball quickly and fires to Jimmy Rollins covering, but Adrian sneaks in under the tag. Then Rollins pushes him off the bag, and second base umpire Paul Emmel calls Adrian out. Assuming I’m reading it correctly, rule 7.04(d) indicates that Adrian should be safe.

Beyond Emmel’s curious interpretation, one other thing puzzles me: Why the heck is Adrian running? The Padres are down by two, so it’s not like getting into scoring position helps. I suppose it removes the possibility of a conventional double play, but I’m not comfortable with that risk/reward calculus. Unless the ball ends up in El Cajon, Adrian stays on first.

Water. Bridge. Lidge retires Brian Giles to end the game. I only wish that Bud Black had gotten into Emmel’s face a little more. When an umpire blows a call that badly, the least a manager can do is get himself tossed.

* * *

Speaking of Correia, is it any coincidence that his only two effective big-league seasons came in ’06 and ’07, when he worked primarily out of the bullpen? Check out some of Correia’s splits so far this year:

Kevin Correia by Inning
Inn PA BA OBP SLG
Through games of June 1, 2009
1-3 123 .219 .325 .305
4+ 112 .373 .420 .608

 

Kevin Correia by Plate Appearance
#PA PA BA OBP SLG
Through games of June 1, 2009
1st 90 .210 .289 .284
2nd 89 .263 .360 .355
3rd 56 .480 .518 .880

 

Kevin Correia by Pitch
Pit PA BA OBP SLG
Through games of June 1, 2009
1-25 58 .167 .224 .204
26-50 63 .278 .381 .352
51-75 63 .296 .381 .500
76+ 51 .467 .510 .822

These are different ways of looking at the same thing. All demonstrate that the longer Correia stays in the game, the worse he performs and eventually he will implode.

Correia exhibited similar tendencies in 2008. For his career, he gets killed from the third plate appearance on (.323/.400/.519) and from pitch 76 on (.316/.388/.491). If this isn’t the profile of a pitcher that should be used a few innings at a time, I don’t know what is.

That’s not all I learned, though. I also learned that I just spent way too much time thinking about Kevin Correia. And so did you. Hey, we’re in this together.

* * *

Before Tuesday’s game, Black called Tony Gwynn Jr. the Padres’ best defensive center fielder since Mike Cameron. I hope Black is saying this to be nice and doesn’t actually believe it.

Jake Peavy got hit by a virus but tried to pitch anyway and gave up four runs in his only inning of work. Josh Geer replaced him and served up a bomb to Howard.

The Phillies led, 6-0, after three innings. Their fans were louder than those of the Padres, which filled me with so much pride that I switched off the game and worked on a crossword puzzle.

After spotting Philly a 10-1 lead, the Padres closed it to 10-5 and even loaded the bases in the ninth. Adrian smacked another homer (don’t call him underrated; yeah, the stratospheric walk rate means he’s no longer operating in stealth mode) and Luis Perdomo made a rare appearance.

Sorry I missed Perdomo. It’s like missing Halley’s Comet. I may never get another chance.

* * *

I’ve lived in San Diego for 20 years and it still surprises me that people here are cool with letting the other team’s fams take over our house. I grew up in Los Angeles, where that just didn’t happen. I’ve spoken with natives about this, and some don’t even recognize it as a problem because being outnumbered and outvoiced at the ballpark is all they’ve ever known. Sad, that.

* * *

Palm trees, dead grass, birds chirping, lamppost, rusted silver BMW. Clocks tick as Toby the pug snores curled up in his basket. A blue truck passes.

Scott Hairston to the disabled list. Left biceps. Hurt it swinging the bat during Tuesday’s loss. Will Venable up from Portland, starting in left against southpaw J.A. Happ on Wednesday.

Chris Young avoided the strike zone again. He’s gotten a little too good at that for my taste:

Chris Young Loses Control
Year IP K/BB ERA+
Through games of June 3, 2009
2005 164.2 3.04 108
2006 179.1 2.38 117
2007 173 2.32 129
2008 102.1 1.94 97
2009 68.2 1.44 86

Those aren’t the sorts of trends you want to see from a pitcher.

At bat in the second, Young drove a ball deep to right-center with the bases loaded and two out that would have plated three and tied the score. Right fielder Greg Dobbs made a nice running catch to end the threat, and the crowd went nuts because Petco Park is everyone’s home away from home. I flipped the channel to… something without the sound of Phillies fans.

By the end of the night, the Padres had been swept at home for the first time in 2009. Nobody cared.

* * *

Geoff, Elsewhere

Shameless bit o’ self-promotion. My latest stuff on the tubes:

* * *

Thee is no middle ground with the ’09 Padres. They are brilliant or wretched, never mediocre. I smell sponsorship: “That rally-killing double play was brought to you by Prozac.”

Remember when the Padres were dismantling teams at home? Now they’ve lost four straight.

Chad Gaudin’s command in Colorado? A mirage. He was back to his old tricks Friday night, missing the strike zone with aplomb. He’s got good stuff — low-90s fastball with movement and a biting slider that made Justin Upton look ridiculous in the fifth — but doesn’t seem to trust it.

If you missed Gaudin’s start, his first batter of the night tells the story. Gaudin jumped ahead of Felipe Lopez, 0-2, and then walked him. From there, it was just variations on that theme. I could tell you more, but then I’d have to kill… myself.

On the bright side, Joe Thatcher looked great. Struck out the first four batters he faced before giving up two weak ground ball singles. I don’t know how Thatcher throws strikes with a delivery that is funkier than George Clinton, but it seems to be working, so who am I to argue?

Perdomo got into the contest. The Padres are 2-11 in games in which he appears. I call him “Bandera Blanca,” which is Spanish for “White Flag.”

The Padres almost scored in the sixth. With runners at first and second and one out, Chase Headley lined a single between first and second. Upton got on the ball quickly and with all his momentum coming toward home, fired a strike to catcher Chris Snyder, who tagged out Eckstein.

I screamed when I saw Glenn Hoffman waving Eckstein home, but the play was closer than I’d expected and it took a perfect throw. Still, what does one run mean when you’re down, 6-0?

That’s why I’m not as upset about the play now as when it happened. Whining about the difference between an 8-0 loss and and 8-1 loss makes a guy seem petty, and we won’t have that.

The left-hander that worked the seventh for Arizona — Daniel Schlereth — dominated. Struck out the Padres in order. Got Hundley to chase a breaking ball in the dirt and abused Gwynn with fastballs. Fanned Josh Wilson in between, but I couldn’t tell you how because Wilson’s at-bets tend not to be memorable. It is for the best.

Must be tough to face Schlereth, who works in the mid-90s, immediately after six innings of Doug Davis. I’m not saying Davis is slow, but I took a nap during one of his pitches and felt quite refreshed by the time it reached Snyder’s mitt.

* * *

Couple interviews with former Padres. Gaslamp Ball chats with Jason Szuminski, while Jorge Says No! talks to Garry Templeton.

* * *

Fun win on Saturday night. Remember all that stuff I said about Correia earlier? Well, he made me look like an idiot, which is cool because it helps the team.

Correia gave up two semi-fluky runs (three ground ball singles, a walk, and a hit batsman) in the first and then shut down the Diamondbacks for the next five innings. I thought he was going to fall apart in the fifth, when Max Scherzer led off with a single and Felipe Lopez smoked the next pitch. Fortunately, Lopez’s drive found Adrian’s glove and turned into a double play. Correia then retired Ryan Roberts on a first-pitch groundout, getting through the inning on all of three pitches, which marked a nice change from the 35 he’d needed to survive the first.

Correia pitched so well that I almost removed the bit showing that he tends to fade in the middle innings. I decided to keep it for three reasons:

  1. I’d already done the work.
  2. Analysis is a process, and it’s important to consider all available evidence.
  3. The point still holds, although Correia has given us a compelling reason to keep an eye on this going forward.

Another guy that made me look like an idiot on Saturday was Gwynn. I remain skeptical that he can play at this level, but the kid had a fantastic game, reaching base in all five of his trips to the plate out of the leadoff spot. That has happened 15 times in Padres history (the most recent coming on September 21, 2005, when Dave Roberts did it).

Gwynn had a little help. In the fateful sixth, when the Padres scored all six of their runs (and Will Venable collected his first two hits of the season), Gwynn took a slider from Schlereth for strike one. Gwynn then checked his swing on another slider. Third base umpire Paul Nauert ruled that he held up, although replays suggest otherwise. Now with a 1-1 count, Schlereth threw three straight balls to Gwynn. One wonders if the outcome might have been different had he been working with an 0-2 count.

Gwynn wasn’t the only one seeing the ball well. The entire offense came out to play. Although the Padres couldn’t score against Scherzer, they were patient enough to force him out of the game after 5 innings and 104 pitches. Then came the Arizona bullpen — that tasty, tasty bullpen — and the Padres got serious.

For as much as I enjoyed the six-run outburst (and oh, how I enjoyed it), I liked what followed even better. Luke Gregerson came on in the seventh and retired the side in order. Two strikeouts (Eric Byrnes and Chris Snyder swung at filthy sliders well off the plate) and a grounder to second.

Edward Mujica gave up his first run since April 30 on a two-out solo homer to Justin Upton, who crushed a 2-2 fastball to center and deposited it in the beach area. Hey, you’re up four in the eighth, might as well challenge hitters. Upton is a great talent, and guys with great talent sometimes deposit fastballs into the beach area. Get the next guy, which Mujica did.

The Padres drew eight walks on the night, tying their season high in regulation games this year (they drew 12 in that 16-inning affair against the Reds a few weeks ago). All eight came from the first four batters, including two to Adrian, who has drawn two or more in each of the past five games. During that stretch, of the 92 pitches he’s seen, only 33 (35.9%) have been strikes.

As a team, the Padres’ walk rate is up significantly this season, reversing a four-year downward trend:

Wait, Then Attack
Year BB% ISO BA OPS+ R/G
Through games of June 7, 2009
2005 9.6 .134 .257 97 4.22
2006 9.0 .154 .263 99 4.51
2007 8.8 .160 .251 96 4.55
2008 8.3 .140 .250 94 3.93
2009 9.8 .149 .238 93 3.95

We’ll have to keep watching this, but at least through the first two months, the organizational philosophy of a patiently aggressive approach at the plate appears to be in effect. The next step is to score more runs.

* * *

I should say a few words about the 2009 draft, which starts this Tuesday at 3 p.m. PT. First, I haven’t been following as closely this year as in seasons past. Second, from what I’ve heard about the players expected to be available and of interest to the Padres at #3, here is my wish list:

  1. Donavan Tate
  2. Aaron Crow
  3. Not Mike Minor

Tate will be a difficult sign, but I like the tools. Crow strikes me as a reasonable compromise if the Padres decide not to pursue Tate; the guy is a potential impact arm, which is something the organization lacks beyond Mat Latos. Regarding Minor, I’m sick of these polished left-handers that work in the high-80s. Time to try something new.

As for draft coverage, hundreds of “experts” have cropped up in recent years. If you are interested in their opinions, I suggest trying Google. My further advice would be to learn a little about the sources before placing your trust in them. When in doubt, stick with the usual suspects: MLB.com, Baseball America, etc.

* * *

Sunday’s contest went 18 innings and ended in defeat, but the team battled, which is all I ever ask. That and wins, but sometimes you can’t have both.

Geer pitched well for four innings and then started falling behind hitters in the fifth. As he reminded us, guys who work with a mid-80s fastball can’t afford to do that. Arizona scored four that inning and two the next against Thatcher to take a 6-0 lead.

Positives from Geer’s outing? He picked two runners off first base. Dude has quick feet. He should talk to Chris Young (the Padres pitcher, not the guy Geer picked off in the third).

Dan Haren, meanwhile, was busy mowing through the lineup. I turned to watch John Mayer channel Jimi on the Tonight Show (thanks, TiVo), and missed Kouzmanoff’s home run.

At some point I figured it was safe to return, and I watched the Padres mount a rally against the Arizona bullpen in the eighth. After the first two batters made out, Gwynn lined a double to center. Edgar Gonzalez drew a walk, but on ball four, Gwynn was caught stealing third to end the inning.

Oh, and Adrian was on deck. Steve Lyons would be proud.

No matter, because the Padres scored five in the ninth to tie. Juan Gutierrez, who nearly blew the May 26 contest against the Padres, lit the fuse again. Adrian doubled to lead off the inning and Headley singled him home. Giles walked and Kouzmanoff then almost went yard again, taking Chris Young to the wall in center.

Exit Gutierrez, enter Chad Qualls. Hundley chopped a grounder to the left of third baseman Mark Reynolds, who made a diving stop but whose throw to first arrived too late. Headley scored, cutting the lead to 6-3.

After Chris Burke made the second out, Eckstein came off the bench. He swung at the first pitch he saw — a hanging sinker — and hooked it down the left-field line for a three-run homer to tie the game.

Well. There’s something you don’t see… ever.

In extra innings, Arizona had numerous opportunities to take the lead but couldn’t make it happen until the 18th, when the Padres ran out of pitchers and were forced to stick shortstop Josh Wilson on the mound.

Throwing mostly fastballs in the 86-89 mph range, Wilson came within a strike of escaping the inning unscathed. With two on and two out, he jumped ahead of Reynolds, 0-2. After working the count full, Reynolds lofted a ball to right field that kept carrying and bounced off the top of the auxiliary scoreboard for a three-run homer.

Former Padres farmhand Leo Rosales retired his old team in order in the bottom half, game over. Give props to the Diamondbacks bullpen. Here’s a log of their games against San Diego this year:

Padres vs Arizona Bullpen in 2009
Date IP H R ER HR BB K
Through games of June 7, 2009
5/6 2 2 1 1 0 1 1
5/7 3.1 5 1 1 0 3 4
5/25 2.2 8 5 5 1 0 1
5/26 2 4 3 3 0 2 1
5/27 4 4 3 3 0 4 4
6/5 3 1 0 0 0 0 3
6/6 3 7 6 6 0 3 2
6/7 11 5 5 5 1 5 9
Tot 31 36 24 24 2 18 25

That’s a 6.97 ERA. Sounds bad, but it was much worse (9.82) before they tossed nine straight no-hit innings to conclude Sunday’s contest.

What a time for the Arizona bullpen to solve Padres hitters, eh? It’s funny; you see Eckstein hit a pinch-hit, three-run homer with two out in the ninth and figure you’re destined to see your team win. Turns out you’re just destined to see a great ballgame.

* * *

I don’t know where Laura went. I don’t know where the Padres are going. Some days I care; others, not so much. I would make all the endings happy if I could, but I am awake two-thirds of the time, in a world where my vote doesn’t count.

Oh well. Here we are.

Winning Half Is Like Losing Half, and Vice Versa

by Geoff Young on Jun 01, 2009 (8) Comments

When last we spoke, the Padres had won 10 straight games. They finally lost on Tuesday, but not without a serious fight.

Kevin Correia breezes through 4 2/3 innings, then runs into trouble. Ryan Roberts bloops a single in front of Chase Headley that a more accomplished left fielder might have caught. The inning continues, and Correia gives up back-to-back doubles that put the Diamondbacks on top, 2-0. Correia falls apart the following inning and the score is now 6-0.

Arizona starter Max Scherzer has the Padres chasing high fastballs all night. Then Chris Burke (!) homers to left to lead off the eighth. Tony Gwynn Jr. follows with a pinch single, ending Scherzer’s evening. Left-hander Doug Slaten comes on to face Brian Giles, who lines Slaten’s first pitch hard toward left field. Unfortunately for Giles and the Padres, third baseman Roberts leaps and intercepts the ball for the first out.

Esmerling Vasquez enters, and this happens:

  • Eckstein singles to right
  • Hairston walks
  • Kouzmanoff hit by pitch, Gwynn scores

Then it’s Juan Gutierrez’s turn:

  • Headley singles to right, Eckstein scores
  • Hundley strikes out swinging
  • wild pitch, Hairston scores
  • Macias, batting for Edgar, walks
  • Adrian, batting for Chris Burke, flies to deep right

Adrian is a late scratch from the starting lineup due to flulike symptoms, but almost comes through in a pinch. He just misses a grand slam. Gets under the pitch.

The offense gets back to work in the ninth. With Gutierrez still on the mound, the Padres load the bases with nobody out. Scott Hairston steps to the plate… and grounds into a 5-4-3 double play that plates Gwynn, making the score 6-5.

With Giles on third and two out, Kouzmanoff dumps a 1-2 pitch down the right-field line… foul by inches. Then he hammers a ball to right-center that Chris Young hauls in just shy of the wall. Game over, streak over, heckuva ride.

If Headley gets a better jump in the fifth… If Giles’ drive in the eighth is a little to the left… If Adrian doesn’t get under the pitch that same inning… If Hairston’s grounder in the ninth isn’t hit quite so hard or if Eckstein can take out the second baseman (oh, if that had been Giles running!)… If Kouz’s bloop stays fair or his subsequent drive carries a few feet further…

None of these things happen, so instead we look back fondly at a most improbable winning streak, thank the guys for their effort, and hope they’ll win the next one.

* * *

This is the second time in my life I’ve had to use crutches. When I was 15, I crashed into another kid while playing softball at school. He broke his nose, I broke my ankle. I was in a cast later that day and out hitting tennis balls the next because I’d planned to try out fot the team and wanted to maintain my stroke. I rested the crutch under my left armpit and hit forehands. When I told the doctor, he was horrified. In retrospect, it seems obvious that I shouldn’t have done that, but when you don’t spell things out for a kid short on common sense…

* * *

Back to winning on Wednesday, 8-5, to take the series in Phoenix. Jake Peavy looked strong early before hitting the wall. Guys started smacking him silly. Turns out he was pitching with a bad ankle. Well, he was pitching with his arm, but as anyone who has ever used a body knows, it’s all connected.

Up 5-4, the Padres erputed for three runs against a shaky Arizona bullpen in the eighth. They should have scored more. Leo Rosales and Vasquez couldn’t find the plate. Between them, they walked four batters in the inning. With the bases loaded, Drew Macias jumped ahead in the count, 3-0, before being called out on strikes. After Henry Blanco singled home a run to make the score 8-4, Gwynn hit a ground ball to third that forced the runner at home. Giles then took strike three on a full-count pitch to end the frame.

To Giles’ credit, he battled back from 0-2. He had quality plate appearances all night. Triple, walk, couple loud outs.

Adrian homered. Yawm.

Kouzmanoff looked good again. Flirted with a homer in the sixth (settled for a sac fly), hit some hard foul balls. I feel like he’s about to go off, but I often feel that way. Don’t listen to me when I talk about Kouz.

* * *

Watching a lot of TV, which I don’t normally do unless it involves baseball, spaceships, or both. During the day, options are sparse, so I end up flipping back and forth between SpongeBob Squarepants and Dog The Bounty Hunter. Also managed to catch a lot of the French Open, which is cool because tennis is the one sport I almost didn’t suck at back in the day. What those people can do on a court is unbelievable to me. So is the fact that someone beat Rafael Nadal on clay. Or the fact that the Padres are hovering around .500 this late in the season.

* * *

Glad to see ex-Padre Russell Branyan enjoying a breakout campaign (.323/.413/.614) in Seattle. Funny what can happen when a guy gets a chance. I’ve been advocating on Branyan’s behalf for a long time. It’s good that someone finally looked past the strikeouts and recognized him for the productive hitter that he is. Too bad it didn’t happen earlier in Branyan’s career, but better late than never.

* * *

Death by paper cuts against the Rockies on Friday night. Chris Young was in nibble mode from the get-go. To desecrate a lyric from the late John Lennon, if you go walking six in six innings at Coors Field, you ain’t gonna make it with anyone, anyhow. Lennon’s line is better because it rhymes. Also, it isn’t stupid.

Young gave up three runs, two of which were unearned thanks to Kouzmanoff’s first error of the season… Kouz had a terrible night. Came up four times and hit four weak grounders, three with runners on base.

Kouz wasn’t alone in failing to produce. When you get blanked in Denver, that is a team effort. Give credit to Jason Marquis, who hit his spots, but yuck.

On the flip side, the Rockies had four hits all night: a grounder up the middle, two bunts, and a grounder to shortstop. Yeah, they hit the tar out of the ball.

The walks, though, ruined Young’s night. Ruined mine, too.

* * *

Mrs. D. bought me the first two seasons of Psych on DVD, rescuing me from daytime television. I’ve also been listening to minor-league baseball on the Internet, which is a great way to pass the time. Caught the Great Lakes Loons versus the Kane County Cougars the other day. Couldn’t tell you what happened because I don’t care, but the sounds of a ballgame are always welcome. Tim Wallach’s kid played in the game. So did Josh Barfield’s little brother, for whatever that might be worth.

* * *

It’s funny that both the Padres (88-124) and Rockies (94-117) have stunk since that fateful 163rd game in 2007. Sure, the Rockies reached the World Series that year, but they were terrible enough in ’08 and the first two months of ’09 that it cost manager Clint Hurdle his job…

The Padres activated Cliff Floyd from the disabled list and optioned Macias to Portland. Macias and Headley are the only outfielders on the roster with options remaining. Macias is more useful to the big club right now because he’s a more disciplined hitter who can play all three spots. But Headley has the brighter future, so he stays despite the fact that he looks lost in left field and gets himself out chasing pitches a foot off the plate.

Speaking of looking lost, on Saturday night, Gwynn gave a clinic on how not to play center field. We’ll cut him slack for not tracking down Clint Barmes’ first-inning triple to right-center. If Gwynn lays out for that ball, maybe he catches it. I’ve got enough other gripes that I don’t want a missed highlight reel opportunity to be a sticking point.

What are those other gripes? Glad you asked:

  • In the third, Barmes drives a ball to deep left-center. It’s uncatchable, but when Gwynn gets to the ball, he gives it a couple good kicks before picking it up and returning it to the infield. Garrett Atkins follows with a fly ball to medium center that plates Barmes. Padres starter Josh Geer retires the next batter to end the inning, but if Gwynn fields that ball cleanly, Barmes never scores.
  • Troy Tulowitzki leads off the seventh with a routine fly ball to center. Gwynn starts back, throws his hands out to his sides in the universal sign for “I have no clue where the ball is,” spots it, races in, slides, short hops the ball, and kicks it toward left field. Shortstop Josh Wilson retrieves the ball, but not before Tulowitzki is standing on third base. On a ball that Gwynn misses and kicks, Tulowitzki is credited with a triple. Geer retires the next two batters, although one drives home Tulowitzki to make the score 6-5. Geer should be up, 7-3 (sloppy baserunning cost the Padres a run in the fourth), and out of the inning. Instead, he is lifted for Gregerson, who serves up a game-tying double to Barmes.
  • Gwynn saves his best for last. With the Padres back on top, 7-6, courtesy of a Scott Hairston pinch-hit homer in the top of the ninth, Bell is called upon to seal the victory. After retiring the first batter, Bell allows a single to Barmes, who lines the ball just past Kouzmanoff’s outstretched glove. With Helton up, Barmes steals second. Helton then grounds to third. (Yes, it would have been a game-ending double play had Barmes still been at first.) Atkins follows with an 18-hopper up the middle that drives home Barmes and reties the game. Bell jumps ahead of the next batter, Brad Hawpe, 0-2. Hawpe then fights off a high fastball and pops up to shallow center. Perhaps fooled by the big swing, Gwynn gets a late break. He charges hard and dives for the ball, but misses, allowing it to trickle behind him. By the time Headley comes over from left to retrieve it, Atkins — who was running on contact with two outs — is rounding third. He scores comfortably ahead of Eckstein’s relay home, and the Rockies win. If Gwynn cannot catch that ball (and a big-league center fielder should), his one remaining responsibility is to make sure it doesn’t get past him. Then Bell can take his chances with Seth Smith and maybe push the contest into extra innings. Instead, everyone walks away frustrated by an avoidable loss.

Gwynn’s defense wasn’t the only problem. The Padres also had trouble running the bases. We’ll ignore Wilson getting thrown out at third by 20 feet on a Geer bunt attempt in the second (dude, it’s not a force play) and Headley nearly getting doubled off first on a hit-and-run foul popup to Helton (replays showed that Headley was out) because they had no bearing on the outcome. They made the Padres look stupid, but they didn’t cost anything beyond pride.

The killer came in the fourth, when Nick Hundley led off with a double to left-center and immediately was picked off second by Jason Hammel. Because, you know, Hundley is such a threat to swipe third. After Wilson struck out, Geer beat out an infield single. Gwynn then tripled over the head of a too-shallow Dexter Fowler in center to drive home Geer. If Hundley doesn’t brain-lock, he also scores on Gwynn’s hit. That extra run would have come in handy.

Positives from the game? A few. Adrian launched his 19th homer of the season — one of his opposite-field specials. Just missed #20 in the fourth, driving Seth Smith to the 390 sign in left.

Geer pitched a beautiful game. Don’t let the final line fool you. After the first inning, he stopped the Rockies cold. Geer deserved to win. Gwynn and Hundley owe him, big time.

This gets my vote for stupidest game of the year. Oh well. Maybe tomorrow will be better.

* * *

I had it in my head to play with numbers, but ran out of time and energy. Here are some random questions and observations that you may wish to consider:

  • Is Gregerson being overworked? He has pitched in 26 of the Padres’ first 50 games.
  • Is Luis Perdomo wasting a roster spot? He hasn’t made an appearance since May 16, and he had to wait until the 14th inning to get into that game. Wait, here’s a card:

    Dear Luis,

    I hope you like San Diego. You look rested.

    Regards,
    Kevin Cameron

  • To those who thought the ’09 Padres would threaten the ’62 Mets record of futility, San Diego needs to go 16-96 the rest of the way to make it happen. That’s hard to do. If the Pads go 50-62 (.446), they finish with 75 wins, which is more than many experts predicted. They need to go 39-73 (.348) to exceed 2008′s win total. Anything is possible, but biven what we’ve seen of these guys so far, I’m liking their chances.
  • Why are the Padres home/road splits so much more severe this year than in recent seasons?
  • Petco Park is helping Gregerson (17 IP, 0.00 ERA at home; 12.1 IP, 8.03 ERA on the road) and Young (32 IP, 2.25 ERA at home; 30.2 IP, 6.75 ERA on the road). It is killing Adrian (99 PA, .259/.364/.459 at home; 114 PA, .313/.421/.802 on the road). I’ve been saying this for a while, but if he plays half his games at any other venue in the big leagues, Adrian becomes an instant MVP candidate. He deserves consideration anyway, but I wouldn’t expect voters to understand that. His RBI total is too low, his overall numbers don’t match up well with guys who call Philly or Milwaukee home, and the mediadvertising industry has little use for San Diego other than as a place to get away from it all. Hey, that’s life.

* * *

More solid pitching in Sunday’s win, from an unexpected source. Something or someone (Greg Maddux?) possessed Chad Gaudin, who pumped strikes into the seventh inning. I didn’t know he could do that.

Gaudin worked 6 1/3 innings, striking out nine and walking none. He entered the contest averaging 7.02 walks per 9 innings. His previous low in walks this season had been three, so yeah, this caught me by surprise.

Gaudin pounded the bottom of the zone early. He struck out the side in the first and again in the second. Through four innings, his line looked like this: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 SO. Then the Rockies caught up with him; from that point forward he did this: 2.1 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 SO. (The unearned run came on a fly ball to center that Hairston clanked; maybe he’d been watching Gwynn a little too closely on Saturday?)

Adrian hit another opposite-field homer. It’s what he does. He also got thrown out at the plate by a laughable margin trying to score on a Kouzmanoff two-out double to left-center that I thought was gone when it left the bat.

Gaudin got help from Wilson, who started a beautiful double play to end the sixth. He backhanded Helton’s grounder, spun clockwise on one knee, and fired to Eckstein, who somehow eluded the onrushing Fowler and threw to first.

Watching Wilson on that play reminded me of Khalil Greene, who has been placed on the disabled list by the Cardinals for social anxiety disorder. What a shame. I hope Khalil is okay.

Bell sealed the victory, giving the Padres a split on their road trip. They could’ve swept both series, but let’s not get greedy; after 11 straight losses on the road, 3-3 looks just fine. So does a .500 record headed into June.

* * *

It was good to see Bell rebound from his first blown save. It was good to see the Padres finish their road trip with a win. It was good to see them finish May with a win. It was good… it was good… It’s baseball; by definition, it is good. Right?

Vicodin Dreams

by Geoff Young on May 26, 2009 (18) Comments

I will do anything to avoid a game in Albuquerque — be it getting hopelessly lost in that fine city, having my car smashed by a big rig en route from Missouri, or as now, recovering from knee surgery. A sensible person would simply admit he didn’t want to watch the Isotopes play, but where is the fun in that?

* * *

Chris Young came out strong Tuesday night, attacking hitters. Got cute later in the game — started nibbling, as he will do. Still, he gave up just one run over six innings — and that only because Emmanuel Burriss is fast and beat the return throw on what could have been a 5-4-3 double play to end the sixth.

Homers from Scott Hairston (fastball down the middle; some people never learn) and Nick Hundley (hanging change pounded to dead center). Hairston reached base all four times, smiling at some nasty pitches from Barry Zito as they floated past and hammering the ones that ventured too close to his bat.

The bullpen did its job, which hasn’t always been the case this year. Greg Burke worked the seventh, freezing Pablo Sandoval on a fastball that started in toward the left-handed batter before tailing back to kiss the black, a la Greg Maddux. It’s early, but I like what I’ve seen of Burke so far. He strikes me as a potential member of the 2010 squad, which is what the Padres are auditioning for now.

Edward Mujica delivered a scoreless eighth, and Heathmonster Bell was his usual stellar self in the ninth. At some point he will cough up a run or three, but he sure is fun to watch.

* * *

Listening to the Missions game on Wednesday. We’re supposed to be at this one. It’s 72 degrees and partly cloudy — crappy day for baseball, I lie to myself.

Right-hander Mat Latos has been recalled to San Antonio. Good for him, although I’m sorry I won’t get to see Latos pitch at Elsinore. He takes the place of Will Inman, who is headed to Triple-A Portland.

Me, I’m just lying here, listening to the game. Like when I was a kid drifting off to sleep with Vin Scully’s voice filling my head. Only I’m not a kid, and it’s not Vin Scully.

Luis Durango grounds out on a 3-1 pitch his first time up, then later pops out on a bunt attempt. Eric Sogard, recently off the disabled list (groin), singles and then walks.

Cedric Hunter starts in left. He and Durango alternate between left and center so both can get reps at the more demanding position. Neither is likely to provide enough offense to justify a corner spot at the big-league level.

The announcers go nuts over Hunter’s takeout slide on a potential double play in the sixth. Both he and batter Jesus Lopez are safe. Hunter then scores on a pinch single off the bat of Kellen Kulbacki.

Nathan Culp works six strong innings, needing just 59 pitches. Tim Stauffer starts the eighth. Sorry I don’t get to see him. I would give him a warm round of applause. The odds are against Stauffer, but I hope he makes it back to the Show. That kid’s career has been one long setback, and he deserves better.

Stauffer works a scoreless eighth and a perfect ninth to seal the 6-2 victory. The final out comes on a called third strike. Attendance at Wolff Stadium is listed as 4368, but we know it should be higher by two.

Maybe next year…

* * *

Finished reading Bill Bryson’s In a Sunburned Country. Not his finest work, but I’ll take Bryson’s worst over almost anyone else’s best.

Started on Pat Conroy’s My Losing Season. I read The Great Santini in high school and remembered liking it.

This one is about Conroy’s time playing for the 1967-68 1966-67 Citadel basketball team and the lessons learned from loss, which seems appropriate just now. I’m supposed to read these after my surgery, but a guy gets bored sitting around, not driving all over the southwest.

* * *

One thing about the Padres this year is that the absence of expectation has removed all anxiety about how they are doing. If they win, great; if not — that’s great, too.

What’s fun is watching these guys audition for jobs next year. Some will stick with the Padres, while others may get a shot elsewhere thanks to their exposure now.

A lot of these players aren’t considered prospects and are here only because the Padres failed to stock their roster with big-league talent. On the one hand, that’s a harsh indictment of the front office and the players. On the other, how else would someone like Greg Burke show the world that he’s qualified to pitch at this level?

Sometimes a bad situation can create an opening. And sometimes that opening can get filled in a way that nobody could have foreseen. Not always, but sometimes. I don’t think Walter Silva is a big-league pitcher, for example. But Burke might be, and who would have guessed it? Heck, the guy signed out of a tryout camp. Those kids aren’t supposed to make it — which is why it’s all the sweeter when they do.

* * *

Jonathan Sanchez and Chad Gaudin fling baseballs in the general direction of home plate on Wednesday night. Sometimes they hit their target, but often they miss… by a lot.

Gaudin survives six innings. Thankfully Giants hitters can’t figure out the strike zone either.

Burke comes through again in the seventh. Gets help from David Eckstein, who robs Sandoval of what appeared to be a game-tying RBI single up the middle.

Sandoval later makes a bad throw to first on a ball hit by Eckstein. Pulls Travis Ishikawa off the bag. Replay shows that Ishikawa got his foot back on the bag before Eckstein’s arrival. Bruce Bochy comes out to argue and gets tossed… even though he is right.

Kevin Kouzmanoff continues to swing that bat well. Scalds a ball to second base his first time up, then blasts a first-pitch homer to left to lead off the fourth. In his final at-bat, he pokes a hit-and-run single to right — nice job staying back and shooting the ball through the hole.

The Padres need to make a decision about third base. Kouz is solid all around but nothing special. Chase Headley might have more offensive upside and doesn’t belong in the outfield. Headley has as much business patrolling left field as Martha Stewart does of being the next Bond girl.

Headley loses himself out there twice in this one:

  • In the second inning, Fred Lewis pops a ball back of shortstop. Chris Burke backpedals a long way to make a nice catch, but the left fielder has to take charge there.
  • In the fifth, Headley misplays a drive off the bat of Aaron Rowand into a double. Mark Grant observes that it’s a playable ball. I agree… for a left fielder and not a displaced third baseman.

Bell is brilliant. Again. Blows fastballs past Rich Aurilia to end the game.

Before that, Bell makes as fine a defensive play as you’ll see from a pitcher. Burriss hits a chopper high off the plate. Bell charges off the mound, snags the ball with his bare hand, turns, and fires to first to get Burriss by half a step. As we’ve established, Burriss is a fast man. I’m still shocked that Bell made the play — and made it look easy.

* * *

Jake Peavy reportedly was traded to the Chicago White Sox for four prospects but invoked his no-trade clause to kill the deal. I’m glad because I enjoy watching Peavy pitch and none of the kids coming to San Diego thrilled me.

Peavy is the new Phil Nevin: productive, outspoken, and fond of rejecting trades. It’s too bad the Padres have decided they can’t afford to pay Peavy. On the bright side, because of his no-trade clause, the Padres haven’t been able to finalize deals that minimize their return on investment thanks to an absence of leverage resulting from the fact that everyone and their mother knows they need to unload him.

Meanwhile, the Padres — apparently determined to divest themselves of at least some talent — shipped Jody Gerut to Milwaukee for Tony Gwynn Jr. I’ve covered this trade at Unfiltered, although I had to wait several hours before I could write something that wasn’t littered with obscenities and that didn’t expose me for the raving lunatic I’d become in the wake of the news.

I love the name on his back, but Gwynn isn’t the player that Drew Macias is. Or Will Venable. And those guys didn’t cost the Padres one of last year’s most productive center fielders.

My fear is that Kevin Towers either has lost his touch or is acting on orders he’d rather not follow. It’s almost as though the ghost of Johnnie Cochrane is working through him: “If you cannot win, you must acquire a Gwynn.”

This is a deeply cynical view, and one that disturbs me to consider, but it’s tough to see another motivation for shedding Gerut’s relatively modest salary in the name of acquiring inferior talent at the same position… The surreal part is that I’ve spoken with Padres fans who are excited about the trade.

* * *

I couldn’t bring myself to watch Thursday night’s win over the Giants. Too preoccupied with thoughts of surgery and disgusted at the Gerut giveaway. I hate when I’m like that, but I need to see an honest effort. At least when the Padres dumped Khalil Greene, they saved a good chunk of money and didn’t receive a worse shortstop in return. Was Gerut’s value so low that the Padres couldn’t fetch something they need, like a palatable alternative to sticking Chris Burke in the lineup every night?

* * *

Surgery went well. The doctor performed a more aggressive procedure than originally expected, which means a longer recovery time but hopefully a more satisfying long-term result.

Came home and had the unique pleasure of watching Peavy pitch in a Padres uniform as I emerged from my anaesthetic stupor. He shut down the Cubs for six innings, striking out 10 in the process. I loved every minute of it.

A night after scoring the game winner in his Padres debut, Gwynn collected his first hit for the hometown team. Roped a double that kicked up chalk along the right-field line in the fifth.

Adrian Gonzalez knocked his MLB-leading 16th homer in the seventh. Opposite field, on a 1-2 pitch from southpaw Neal Cotts. Ball caught too much plate and Adrian pounded it.

Bullpen did great work again. Luke Gregerson made Alfonso Soriano look terrible in the seventh. Three-pitch strikeout. Sliders down and away. When Gregerson faltered the next inning, Mujica shut the door before getting help from Bell to record the game’s final out.

Some of these kids are starting to show that they can pitch at this level. Maybe not great, but at least well enough to belong, which is better than could be said on Opening Day. And now Mike Adams, the Padres’ most effective reliever in 2008, has started a rehab assignment.

Everything looks brighter when you’re riding a hot streak, but there are legitimate silver linings with this club. Not enough to overcome a Dodgers team that doesn’t understand how much worse it should be with Juan Pierre in left field instead of Manny Ramirez, but still… it’s refreshing to see pitchers out there who know what they’re doing, as opposed to say, Frankie de la Cruz and Arturo Lopez.

* * *

The Padres have outhomered their opponents this year, 47-42. They’re 23-22, but their Pythagorean is 19-26. Does this mean Bud Black is a brilliant manager for coaxing four more victories than we might reasonably expect from this bunch? Or do folks still want to see him fired?

* * *

Josh Geer gave up an early home run to Derrek Lee on Saturday, along with some loud outs and I thought the Padres were in for a long evening. But Geer settled into a rhythm and ended up surrendering just the one run while fanning a career-high seven over 6 2/3 innings.

Got Kosuke Fukudome to chase junk in the dirt in the third and again in the sixth. Fukudome entered the game with a .452 OBP.

And more of the resurgent bullpen. With Bell unavailable due to having worked four straight games, Burke, Gregerson, and Mujica finished what Geer started.

Mujica made things interesting in the ninth, serving up back-to-back singles to Milton Bradley and Lee to start the frame. Then Micah Hoffpauir smashed a grounder in the worst place possible — directly at Adrian, who stepped on the bag at first, checked Bradley at third, then threw to second, where Chris Burke tagged out Lee to complete the double play. Geovany Soto then looked at a full-count fastball for strike three to end the game.

* * *

Storms all over the southwest. Hail in Flagstaff.

* * *

Young pitched well on Sunday. Gave up two runs in seven innings, both on a homer off the bat of Reed Johnson that bounced off the top of the auxiliary scoreboard in left and into the seats. I’m not saying that Hairston would have caught the ball, but he at least would tried to make a play on it. Headley was in left and didn’t even get there. He probably should sit when Young, an extreme fly ball pitcher, is on the mound.

Johnson’s seventh-inning blast cut the Padres lead to 4-2, but Kouzmanoff responded in the bottom half with a three-run shot of his own to the same spot. Kouz doubled earlier, drove in four runs. Pads won, 7-2, sweeping the nine-game homestand. When they lost to the Dodgers on May 1, dropping to 11-12, I’d assumed the Padres had seen the last of .500 this year. I suspect I’m not alone in this.

* * *

Smitty had a seizure just after the game. First since Opening Day. He had three more later in the evening, and we knew it was time for him to leave. I can’t move in my current condition, so Mrs. Ducksnorts took him to the hospital and put him down.

We’ve been preparing for this for a long time, and it still hurts like hell.

* * *

Winners of nine straight, the Padres returned to the road, where they had lost 11 in a row thanks to a pitching staff that ranked 26th among 30 MLB teams in road ERA. Entering Monday’s contest, only the Indians (6.28), Orioles (6.41), and Nationals (6.43) sported higher road ERAs than the Padres (5.95). The Padres’ home ERA of 2.93 leads baseball, making it increasingly difficult to dismiss suggestions that this staff is a product of its environment.

On Monday, they fell behind early to the Diamondbacks in Phoenix. The Snakes led, 5-0, after three; by the seventh, they were up, 7-1.

Then the Padres scored five in the eighth, one in the ninth, and two in the 10th to pull out the improbable victory and extend their winning streak to 10. The bullpen rescued an ineffective Gaudin (dude seriously needs to throw the occasional strike), working 4 2/3 scoreless to hold Arizona down while the Padres offense went to work.

Mujica picked up the win, Bell the save. Right-handed hitters, in case you’re wondering, are 0-for-32 against Bell this year. If the powers-that-be decide that the Padres deserve more than token representation at the Midseason “Meaningful” Exhibition Game, Bell would be a worthy candidate.

* * *

This has been a perplexing season so far. That a team can go 9-3, 4-19, and 10-0 in consecutive stretches boggles the imagination. Then again, the same can be said of life itself. As long as the games keep being played, we should be in good shape. Or is that just the Vicodin talking?

To Sweep and To Be Swept

by Geoff Young on May 18, 2009 (25) Comments

Sunlight glimmers off the bay like sweat, like flashbulbs, a disco ball, coins from a slot machine, dice rolling, neon signs. Patterns of light moving impossibly fast, not moving at all. Stare long enough, it all becomes one. Time and meaning are lost, like the days themselves, swept out to sea.

The Padres had Monday off. That is, they did not lose.

[Just a heads-up: There are some "naughty" words a bit further into the article; as a courtesy to those who might be offended, I'll let you know before we get there. I prefer to keep things clean around here, but in this case, there was no way around it.]

Caught precious little of Tuesday night’s game — and the wrong parts. The Padres were up, 2-0, by the time I started driving home from work. Missed Adrian Gonzalez’s first-inning homer.

Later watched a couple innings. Saw the Cubs score their first run, then got distracted by life. Flipped back to see the Pads down, 6-2.

Chase Headley grounded into another double play. He’s gotten good at that. More in his first 31 games this season than in 91 games all of 2008.

Watched highlights. Milton Bradley’s home run — needed safety goggles and headphones for that one. And the way he just drops the bat at the plate. Used to burn me, but then I saw him do it for us and I fell in love.

I miss Bradley. He easily makes my list of 20 favorite Padres (in alphabetical order):

  • Andy Ashby — For the first four months of ’98, the perpetual wad of chaw in his cheek, and the serious drawl
  • Josh Barfield — For playing at Elsinore and the homer off Brian Fuentes in ’06
  • Milton Bradley — For the dramatic home runs and yelling “I am that good!” at fans in Philly
  • Ken Caminiti — For the on-field heroics and the painful reminder that ballplayers are human
  • Steve Finley — For the glove, the walkoff grand slam off Felix Rodriguez in ’98, and that Tom Brady thing that makes even straight men swoon a little
  • Adrian Gonzalez — Because nobody outside of San Diego appreciates how good he is
  • Khalil Greene — For playing at Elsinore, the acrobatic fielding, and the way he carried himself on the playing field
  • Tony Gwynn — For everything; he is one of two men alive that could make me drive cross country for a Hall of Fame induction
  • Rickey Henderson — For the infectious smile and generally “Being Rickey”
  • Trevor Hoffman — He’s the other guy who will get me out to Cooperstown; I’ve already started planning the trip — no freeways this time
  • Wally Joyner — For the bat, the glove, and the class
  • Mark Kotsay — For reminding me of Finley and helping purge the memory of Ruben Rivera
  • Greg Maddux — For the precision and the ability to bust bats with an 84-mph fastball
  • Akinori Otsuka — For Yossha!, the Corky’s commercials, and the most ineffectual yet hilarious swing I’ve ever seen from a batter that wasn’t a cartoon character
  • Eric Owens — For the eyeblack and the straight steal of home off Cincinnati’s Brett Tomko
  • Jake Peavy — Another guy who passed through Elsinore on his way to the big leagues; heck, he got a key to the city
  • Oliver Perez — More Elsinore
  • Mike Piazza — For the power, the handling of pitchers, the handling of the media
  • Dave Roberts — For being a pest at the plate, playing hard, and being better than I thought he was
  • Gene Tenace — For the ridiculous OBP and hitting two homers in the first big-league game I ever attended

* * *

[Okay, we're almost to the "naughty" words. If you think you might be offended, maybe try something a little safer.]

I still don’t understand the calls for Bud Black’s head. What did you expect from this team? Did you even glance at the roster?

Then again, change for the sake of change is always good. Look at the difference A.J. Hinch is making in Arizona.

* * *

Sometimes when I’m feeling down, I like to write a terzanelle:

Terzanelle Up Shit’s Creek

The offense sputters, pitching reeks
and we watch helpless as they flail
without a paddle up shit’s creek

Would it help if they’d set sail
with bigger guns and better tools?
Still, we watch helpless as they flail.

Why are we, as fans, such fools
to keep on cheering as they fall
with bigger guns and better tools?

In truth, we can’t resist the call.
Because the game is in our blood,
we keep on cheering as they fall.

The season may well be a dud,
but that’s no reason to lose hope.
Because the game is in our blood,

we somehow find a way to cope
when offense sputters, pitching reeks.
There is no reason to lose hope
without a paddle up shit’s creek.

* * *

Well. There’s something you don’t see every day. Let us hope not, anyway.

* * *

Vacation. Supposed to be cavorting around the southwest, hanging out at minor-league ballparks, seeing the sights. Vegas, Tucson, El Paso, San Antonio, Austin, Carlsbad Caverns, Santa Fe, Albuquerque, Grand Canyon.

Smitty’s condition changed our plans, so we’ll try again next spring. Meanwhile, I’ve got two weeks off from the day job, which I’m putting to good use.

I’m having arthroscopic surgery on the knee that has been giving me fits for the past several years. It’s an outpatient procedure, so I should be able to slap together an article for next week. Depending on how “effective” the meds are, it may be less coherent than usual. Or as some might say, “an improvement.”

* * *

The Padres’ free fall continues. They lost, 6-4, on Wednesday. Saw a few at-bats after work. Chris Young served up for homers. That is one way to shut down the running game.

More of the same on Thursday. This one ended up 11-3. Chad Gaudin and friends walked 10 Cubs batters.

On the bright side, the game wasn’t televised.

* * *

The Padres have issued 10 or more walks in a nine-inning contest 45 times in their history. They have won five of those, lost 40. The last time the Pads won such a game? June 29, 2000. Matt Clement — backed by homers from Phil Nevin, Wiki Gonzalez, and Ruben Rivera — beat Darren Dreifort at Dodger Stadium.

* * *

Geoff, Elsewhere

Shameless bit o’ self-promotion. My latest stuff on the tubes:

  • Plate discipline: It’s that thing you don’t have (THT). If the pitch is in the next zip code and you swing at it, you might be a hacker. Ex-Padres Ivan Murrell, Luis Salazar, Carlos Baerga, and Rickey Henderson make appearances, as does former coach Rob Picciolo.
  • Hype Is Awesome!!! (Baseball Prospectus Unfiltered). People who have never seen Stephen Strasburg pitch assure me he’s not that great. Who am I to argue with them?
  • Shouldn’t a closer, you know, close? (THT). Searching for the Tony Cloninger of relievers. Ex-Padre Mark Davis gets a passing nod.
  • Five Homers, Ten Walks, and a Loss (BDD). The Washington Nationals did something amazing on April 27. In a game at Philadelphia, they hit five homers and drew 10 walks… and lost.
  • …and a Bucket of Balls (BDD). The Detroit Tigers acquired outfielder Jason Tyner from Milwaukee… for nothing.
  • Crazy scoring streak (THT). The Oakland A’s once scored four runs or more in 17 straight games and won them all.

As a reminder, my Tuesday dealio at BDD is now at Baseball Prospectus. Thanks to those who left comments over there; nice to see some familiar names.

Also, if you do the Twitter thing, so do I. Yay. Follow me at twitter.com/ducksnorts if you’d like.

* * *

Roster shuffling. Edwin Moreno and Duaner Sanchez are gone, replaced by Greg Burke and Joe Thatcher. Having two players with the surname “Burke” on the roster seems cool until you discover that Burke is among the 250 most common surnames in the United States. Then you find yourself wishing for guys named Arizmendi, Bilderback, or Clingerman.

Not that they’d necessarily help, but at least we could talk about their names. That would kill a good five seconds of awkwardness.

* * *

Mrs. Ducksnorts calls from Vegas while I’m at the car dealer geting tires installed. She’s headed to the sports book, picking up odds sheets for me. In the background, her brother dares me to bet on the Padres.

“$20 to win the World Series?” she asks.

It’s my usual bet.

“Naw, I’ll just set the money on fire this year.”

“Sounds like fun.”

“Sure.”

The car is ready. I pay up, then drive to Mission Bay, where I sit on a bench and stare at the water, wondering what the heck there is to say about the Padres at this point. They stink. How much more detail do you need?

* * *

The Padres win Friday night. Adrian homers in his fifth straight. Nice that the opposition is still pitching to him, although I can’t imagine why. The home run came on a full count. He struck out on the 2-2 pitch but it was ruled no swing. Yeah, he swung.

Kevin Correia gave up three earned runs, although there should be an asterisk by two of those. Brian Giles lost a ball in the lights with two out in the fifth. Hit him right in the glove, ruled a double.

Dogging Correia is fun sport, but he pitched well on Friday… Also, it’s weird to see the closer in the eighth. Cool, but weird.

* * *

These guys are still walking way too many batters. The Padres are 28th out of 30 MLB teams in BB/9. For an organization whose philosophy is “pitch to contact,” that isn’t good. Actually, it isn’t good regardless of philosophy.

The last time the Padres averaged 4 BB/9 or higher in a season was 2000. That was a dreadful staff, and yet, I find myself hoping someone can talk Carlos Almanzar and Matt Whiteside out of retirement. Here’s how the Padres have done since then (this is a modified and updated version of the table found on page 19 of the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual):

Walks Allowed per 9 Innings
Year Padres MLB Diff
2000 4.01 3.75 +0.26
2001 2.94 3.25 -0.33
2002 3.59 3.35 +0.24
2003 3.77 3.27 +0.50
2004 2.60 3.34 -0.74
2005 3.10 3.13 -0.03
2006 2.89 3.26 -0.34
2007 2.91 3.31 -0.40
2008 3.46 3.36 +0.10
2009 4.22 3.73 +0.49

Lower numbers are good. You want to be in the negative differential.

Last year was the first time since the Padres moved downtown that their BB/9 crept above MLB average. This year, they’re back to ’03 levels.

* * *

Pining for the future? Evan Brunnell sends this:

We’re running a MLB mock draft at MVN Outsider, and Daniel Gettinger (Friar Forecast) just picked Dustin Ackley on behalf of the San Diego Padres. Thought I’d send along the link if you wanted to share it with your readers.

Eh, Ackley underwhelms. I’m hoping for Lars Tate’s kid.

Meanwhile, among players actually in the system, Jaff Decker is raking. He hit a blast 450 feet last week that has people talking.

Small sample, but the early returns on Decker are outstanding. In 318 professional plate appearances, he’s hitting .336/.509/.545. He’s 19 years old. Yeah, he might be something.

* * *

Up too early. Getting coffee started. Listening to Coltrane after second straight Padres win. Nick Hundley ended it with a homer to left off Micah Owings with two out in the 16th. Guess Hundley got tired of squatting.

The bullpen did an admirable job, working 10 1/3 scoreless. I still hate the 12-man staff. Watching Kevin Correia and Luis Perdomo bat in extra innings is not my idea of fun. Correia was in there as a pinch-hitter, a sure sign of roster fail.

Thank goodness the game ended when it did. I don’t know how much longer Perdomo could have gone. The Padres were out of position players and pitchers when Hundley hit his blast.

Mark Grant noted that recently acquired shortstop Josh Wilson pitched in a game last week for Arizona. Okay, then what? Eckstein to short, Hariston to second, Perdomo to left?

Coltrane yields to Nick Drake. Coffee is ready.

Five hours and change earlier, Brian Giles led off the bottom of the first with his second homer of the year. He drew three walks in the game, my favorite coming in the second inning. Giles fell behind in the count, 0-2, before spitting on some tough pitches from Edinson Volquez and coaxing the walk.

Volquez loves his changeup. It’s a good pitch, but damn.

I wonder if Adrian is feeling pressure to produce. In the fifth, on a 3-0 count, he chased a 79-mph changeup down and away off the plate. Then he fouled a high fastball straight back before waving at an even higher fastball for the strikeout.

Strange line of the night goes to Jody Gerut: 0-for-7 with 2 RBI. He also robbed Laynce Nix of a two-run homer in the second and made a diving catch of a sinking liner later in the contest.

Reds pitchers struggled with the strike zone, issuing 12 walks. They didn’t get much help from plate umpire Jim Joyce, who refused to call pitches at the knees strikes. Joyce and veteran reliever David Weathers exchanged words as Weathers walked off the mound after issuing a free pass to pinch-hitter Drew Macias with the bases loaded to tie the game.

In Joyce’s defense — and it’s a poor defense — he squeezed pitchers on both sides. If Joyce rings up Ramon Hernandez in the second, then Gerut doesn’t have to make a game-saving catch on Nix’s drive.

Josh Geer looked sharp through four, then started leaving pitches up in the zone, which has disastrous consequences for someone who works with a mid-80s fastball. Geer reminds me so much of Justin Germano it’s not even funny. Like Germano, he must be perfect to have even a chance to succeed. As one scout puts it, “He’s a middle reliever.”

My only gripe is that the Padres should have won the game sooner. They left 17 men on base. Left ‘em loaded in the ninth, 10th, and 14th. Left runners on second and third in the 15th — Scott Hairston popped to short on the first pitch he saw from Owings to end the inning. Both runners had reached via walk. Gee, Scott; anxious much?

* * *

Sat in Section 228 for Sunday’s game. Good to see things from a different perspective.

Jake Peavy on the mound. Needed to save the bullpen, so he did. Went the distance. Gave up one run on four hits. I will miss him when he is gone.

Kevin Kouzmanoff is finding his stroke. A day after drawing two walks, he knocked three hits, including a leadoff homer to right in the eighth. When Kouz starts driving the ball the other way, good things happen. Kinda like Phil Nevin.

In the fourth, Reds starter Bronson Arroyo walked the bases loaded for Adrian, who smoked a ball right at second baseman Brandon Phillips to end the threat. Curious strategy.

The Padres are batting .121/.162/.152 with the bases loaded this year. It’s only 37 plate appearances, but yuck.

* * *

Funny week. Get swept at Wrigley. Come home, sweep the Reds. On average, it was average… Like the guy whose left side is freezing and whose right side is at 100 degrees. On average, he’s at room temperature; it just doesn’t feel that way.