Links for 4 Nov 08

I have decided, for the first time in 20 years, to participate in a general election. Ordinarily in life I try to stay as far away from politics as possible, but one measure on the California ballot and two political parties have convinced that it’s time for me to get off my butt and vote.

My presidential candidate has no chance of winning — in a game between the Red Sox and Yankees, I’m essentially backing the Eugene Emeralds — but that’s okay. The gesture is purely symbolic, and as symbolic gestures go, it’s probably better than the one I usually give politicians. (Of course, I’ll still deliver that gesture as well — might as well get my money’s worth, right?)

Anyway, it would be hypocritical of me to tell you to vote. That said, maybe you’ll like it. I’m hoping I will.

To the links…

  • SD Native Girl notes that Matt Vasgersian is leaving the broadcast team after seven years. Apparently an (as yet undisclosed) opportunity came along that Matty couldn’t refuse. Vasgersian has been an ardent supporter of Ducksnorts over the years (even contributing the foreword to the 2008 Annual), but that’s not why I’ll miss him. I’ll miss him because he’s a heckuva lot of fun. And between singing Rush’s “Closer to the Heart” after a home run, offending El Camino owners in Missouri, and chatting with a “happy” Rick Sutcliffe, he and Mark Grant always managed to call a great game, even when there wasn’t a great game to call. As SD Native Girl says, this is great for Matty, but sad for us. Best of luck!
  • The Padres have rounded out their coaching staff for 2009. Jim Lefebvre replaces Wally Joyner as hitting coach, while Ted Simmons takes over for Craig Colbert as bench coach. If we could turn back the clock 30 years, we’d also have the catching situation solved.
  • History says writers should use examples to support, not contradict, an opinion. Melvin Nieves at the Sacrifice Bunt dissects a recent Nick Canepa column on the phenomenon of athletes leaving San Diego because… I’m not sure; the article didn’t make much sense to me. Incidentally, Melvin’s title rocks. I wish I’d written that title. Also, someone should tell those kids to get off Canepa’s lawn.
  • Big Apple or no, Peavy is a goner. Jay Paris at the North County Times speculates on the future of Jake Peavy. People sure are spending a lot of energy thinking about something that hasn’t happened. Hey, that’s their right. [h/t Kevin]
  • Ladies Taking Over Arizona. Katie at Ladies Locker Room sends us a couple of video interviews she did with Padres farmhands Mike Baxter and Sean Kazmar at the Arizona Fall League. We learn, among other things, that Baxter’s favorite player growing up was John Olerud. Gotta love Heart’s “Barracuda” rockin’ the stadium during the interview.
  • The Battle for Seamheads Historical Baseball League Supremacy. The list of GMs who will fight for the first Seamheads.com Historical Baseball League championship has been published. I’m in some heady company here — Bill James, Curt Schilling, and several other familiar names.

That’s all for now. More links are available at the Ducksnorts delicious page, which I update as often as practical.

Writing the Book (3 Nov 08)

Wanderlust strikes again. I’m plotting my 2009 baseball trip… something to do with Tucson, San Antonio, Austin, Albuquerque (I am determined to see a game there after missing twice on the way to Cooperstown and back in ’07), and a return trip to the Grand Canyon. I’m thinking some time around Memorial Day, but we’ll see.

Meanwhile, I picked up some travel books the other day at my favorite book store. They have nothing to do with any of the places I intend to visit, and I’d only heard of one of the authors, but I figured at $1 a pop, my worst case had me down about a gallon of gas. Best case, I might find something reasonably palatable or even downright enjoyable.

As luck would have it, the first book I’ve started reading, Alvah Simon‘s North to the Night (aff link), is proving to be quite the inspiration. No, I don’t have a sudden desire to spend months on a 36-foot-boat trapped in Arctic ice, hoping for a thaw that may or may not come in any given year. But I do have a more solid understanding of just how petty my daily concerns are. After the first few pages, you start to feel like a dork for complaining about… well, pretty much anything.

The book also contains my new favorite quote: “Death is only one of many ways to lose your life.” It’s a nice little slap in the face that helps remind me not to become too complacent or lose sight of whatever dreams I might have.

Speaking of which, the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual is coming along just fine. Progress is a little slow for my taste at times, but as they say, patience comes to those who wait.

The day job is affecting me in many ways, mostly positive. Beyond the obvious benefits of allowing me to feed my family and keep a roof over our heads, it’s having a couple of unintended side effects:

  • It’s forcing me to think about things other than baseball for much of the day, which is probably a healthy thing.
  • Somewhat related, it’s forcing me to focus when I do have time to think and write about baseball.

The downside is that I can’t immerse myself in as many conversations here and elsewhere as I otherwise might. Still, it seems a small price to pay for the privilege of being able to research and write with minimal distraction.

Also, speaking of unintended side effects, now that my legs are finally getting better, some upper body issues that have plagued me for years are disappearing. Turns out I’ve been in pain for a long time. I had no idea. I just thought that’s how I was supposed to feel.

And to those of you who expressed concern at my “re-learning how to walk” comment from last week, first off, thanks. Second, I think that may have come off as more melodramatic than intended. I’ve never been unable to walk, but to use a baseball analogy of sorts, the old knee injury knocked my mechanics way out of whack, which led to other problems.

Anyway, the point is that it’s physically easier for me to work during the week and write on the weekends than it ever has been. And the other point is that if you’re in pain, don’t be an idiot like me and wait several years to do something about it.

But enough of that; let’s talk about the 2009 Annual. This past week I put out some feelers for a foreword author. It’s too early to name names — I will neither confirm nor deny anything — but know that I’m actively working on this.

I also sent the Player Dashboards chapter out to a few folks for review and hope to receive feedback on that in the not-too-distant future. As for actual writing, I mostly worked on the 1969 Padres chapter, which I’m geeking out on in a big way, as you’ll see in a moment.

Research Notes

The Padres were shut out seven times in June 1969, once by Don Drysdale and once each by six mediocre pitchers:

Career Records of Pitchers Who Shut Out the Padres in June 1969
IP W-L ERA ERA+
Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
Alan Foster 1025.1 48-63 3.74 96
Jim Ray 617.2 43-30 3.60 97
Tom Griffin 1494.2 77-94 4.07 86
Denny Lemaster 1787.2 90-105 3.58 96
Jim Merritt 1483 81-86 3.65 99
George Culver 789 48-49 3.62 96
Don Drysdale 3432 209-166 2.95 121

Beyond Drysdale, this is like getting dominated by, say, Steve Trachsel, Esteban Loaiza, Darren Oliver, Jason Marquis, and Brian Moehler, with a dash of Scott Elarton thrown in for good measure. That’s pretty hard to do in the space of one month.

And there you have it. I am nothing if not obscure…

Links for 31 Oct 08

Happy Halloween! To the links…

  • Sabathia’s free agency could set up a big payday for Padres ace (San Diego Union-Tribune). Reader Nick G. sends us an update on the Jake Peavy “story” from Tom Krasovic. Quoth Peavy’s agent, Barry Axelrod:

    Making this about money is not my style, nor Jake’s style. I think we proved that. But at the same time, I don’t think Jake should have to sacrifice anything.

    I don’t doubt Axelrod’s sincerity, but these millionaires need to let go of that whole “it’s not about the money” thing. Even if they believe it, and even if they’re correct in believing it, nobody wants to hear about Peavy’s “sacrifice.” Don’t get me wrong, the guy is entitled to whatever the market will yield. But I’d love to hear his camp say something like, “We want more money, end of story.” Stop apologizing and just do it.

  • The Plan (It Might Be Dangerous…). Paul DePodesta talks about the Padres’ plan (yes, they do have one). DePo on developing big-league players:

    Unfortunately, the attrition rate is gruesome. Out of the entire pool of drafted and signed players, only about 18% of them ever get even one day in the big leagues, and only about 7% of them actually accumulate three years in the Major Leagues. It’s even scarier if you examine the rounds — fewer than 50% of 1st round picks get three years in the big leagues, and from rounds two through five that number drops to about 15%.

    To vastly oversimplify, if you draft and sign 14 guys, one of them will make it. I’m not much of a gambler, but those don’t seem like good odds to me.

  • Padres’ Kulbacki working through injuries (MiLB.com). Lisa Winston pens a nice piece on minor-league outfielder Kellen Kulbacki, who started 2008 with a bad hamstring and ended it with a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder (he’s expected to be ready for spring training). Quoth Kulbacki, on his slow start following the hammy injury:

    When I got back into it at Fort Wayne, I wasn’t 100 percent yet and I was worried because it was cold there and I didn’t want to get hurt again. My swing didn’t feel comfortable yet either so I was battling a lot of things and when I got up to Lake Elsinore I realized I was putting a lot of pressure on myself rather than focusing on the things I needed to.

  • Prospects making progress in Peoria (Padres.com). Corey Brock at provides an update on Padres prospects in instructional league. Jeremy Hefner, Adys Portillo, Blake Tekotte, Edinson Rincon, Brian Joynt (who impressed me with his power this past summer despite a lack of pedigree), Nick Schmidt, and Matt Bush are among those mentioned. Portillo, a 16-year-old pitcher signed this past summer for $2 million, draws praise from Grady Fuson for his approach and poise. Schmidt is pitching in the Dominican Republic and Bush has been shut down due to a sore triceps but is expected to be ready for spring training. [h/t Baseball in Fort Wayne]
  • Interview: Carlos Gomez, MLB scout (Hardball Times). Chris Jaffe interviews pitcher-turned-writer-turned-scout (and friend of Ducksnorts) Carlos Gomez. Readers may remember Gomez as the gentleman who expressed concerns about Nick Schmidt’s delivery back when Schmidt was still in college.
  • Freese Named Cards Minors Player of the Year (Scout.com). Dustin Mattison chats with David Freese, the minor-league third baseman shipped to St. Louis in the Jim Edmonds deal. It’s good to see Freese doing well in his new organization. Stuck behind Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley, he wasn’t going to get a shot here in San Diego.

More links are available at the Ducksnorts delicious page, which I update as often as practical. Rock on!

Riffin’ on Carrillo

In response to Tuesday’s item about right-hander Cesar Carrillo experiencing yet another setback in the Arizona Fall League, reader Christian offered this comment:

The Cesar Carrillo news is disappointing. I remember watching the guy throw in game in a college world series qualifier against Joba Chamberlain. He was sitting 92-94 with a ton of movement and good secondary stuff. Hearing he is throwing 85-86 well into his rehab speaks for itself.

Yeah, people forget just how good Carrillo was when the Padres drafted him. I was at Carrillo’s pro debut in July 2005, and my observations at the time jibe well with Christian’s:

Carrillo threw 20 pitches in the first inning, 11 in the second, and 9 in the third. He was around the plate and kept the ball low in the zone. According to the scoreboard radar, his fastball was generally 89-93 mph, peaking at 94. He also featured a curve that came in around 77-80 mph. A third pitch, which I had trouble identifying (possibly a two-seamer?) came in mid- to high-80s.

Carrillo had sick movement on his pitches, and the Kevin Brown comparisons seemed reasonable to me then. The only hitter who did anything against Carrillo in that game was Stephen Drew. Both of those guys looked like they were on rehab assignment — they were way too good for the Cal League.

When I saw him this past August, Carrillo had lost some of the zip on his pitches:

…Carrillo didn’t have much in the way of command, which is in stark contrast to the only other time I’ve seen him on the mound. Still, a bit of rust is to be expected after missing so much time. Personally I’m giving him a mulligan for the season in terms of performance. Like Clay Hensley, Carrillo gets credit just for being out there and throwing some innings. Next year, of course, is different; then he’ll need to produce.

I still hold out hope that Carrillo will have a career, but realistically it’s not looking good for him or the Padres. What I wouldn’t give to be wrong about that…

Links for 28 Oct 08

Mmm, linkity link links…

  • Padres remain a preferred spot for pitchers staging comebacks (U-T). Mark Mulder, Mark Prior, and Matt Clement all have expressed an interest in pitching for the Padres or, failing that, at least wearing the uniform.
  • Mark Prior Halloweeen Update. Speaking of Prior, Planet Padres caught up with the right-hander at a local pumpkin patch, of all places.
  • Petco Fences Moving In? For those who enjoy the occasional conspiracy theory, Melvin Nieves at Sacrifice Bunt delivers the goods.
  • Padres hope their core of young players will help produce a turnaround in 2009 (U-T). I missed this earlier, but Mike Epstein, who studied the Padres hitters in 2008, offers his thoughts: “When I watched their hitters, I just never felt like they went up there with a plan. It seems like they didn’t know who they were with respect to who was hitting behind them — am I considered more of a threat than the guy behind me, or vice versa? I sort of got the feeling they were a little bit caught between here and there.” He also notes their propensity to swing late on 2-0 pitches, which “should never happen.” Epstein likes Kevin Kouzmanoff and can’t figure out Khalil Greene. Join the club, buddy…
  • Carrillo is slowed in comeback (U-T). Tom Krasovic reports that Cesar Carrillo has run into some problems with his elbow while pitching in the AFL. In other news, the sun rose today.

More links are available at the Ducksnorts Delicious page, which I update as often as practical.

Writing the Book (27 Oct 08)

I had two revelations this past week:

  1. Working full time and doing physical therapy (I’m re-learning how to walk, which apparently is a skill one is supposed to have mastered by age 40) is exhausting. It’s not realistic to assume that I’ll be able to make significant progress on the book during the week.
  2. That’s a lame excuse. What the heck do you think weekends are for, doofus?

In that spirit, I put in 9 hours on Saturday and 9 more on Sunday. It is what I have, so it is what I will use.

Anyway, I’ve pretty much finished the Player Dashboards chapter. I still have to check everything, of course, but the raw data is all in place. We’re looking at about 70 pages. Last year’s chapter ran 44 pages. I don’t know what to say; I got on a roll and couldn’t stop.

I also worked a little on the Farm Report chapter. I’d previously identified 113 potential names to discuss, but now I’ve whittled that down to 85, with nearly a 50-50 split between pitchers and position players. I may make additional cuts; we’ll see.

This week the two main focal points will be the Farm Report and also the chapter on the 1969 Padres. I’ve taken extensive notes on the latter over the past couple of years, so that should mostly write itself.

If I knock out those two chapters over the next three weeks or so, I’ll be in good shape. Then I can work on the 2008 in Review chapter when I’m in Hawai’i for Thanksgiving and start on the mini-studies and essays when I return.

I’m hoping to complete a first draft by the end of the calendar year, although if that slips by a week or two, I should be okay. Then I’ll do some serious scrubbing and get the book into production toward the end of February or so.

Man, this had better work…

Research Notes

  • Mike Adams destroyed batters leading off an inning; in 60 plate appearances, they hit .091/.167/.145 against him.
  • The Padres went 6-3 in Greg Maddux’s no-decions during his 14-game winless streak. And here you thought you had bad luck!
  • Trevor Hoffman’s changeup isn’t fooling as many people as it once did. In 2006, left-handed batters posted a 573 OPS against him; in 2007 that number was 799, and last year it was 873. On the bright side, he recorded his highest K/9 total since 2002 and held batters to a .181/.206/.362 line from June 2 till season’s end.
  • When Cla Meredith was on the mound in 2007 and 2008, if a runner reached third base, there’s a real good chance he scored. Batters had 100 plate appearances against Meredith with a runner on third, runners at first and third, runners at second and third, or bases loaded. They hit .444/.480/.531 against him in those situations, which is just staggering.
  • You may not have noticed because he was on the disabled list for much of the year, but Chris Young made huge improvements in controlling the running game:
     

    Chris Young and the Running Game, 2006 – 2008
    Year IP SB SBA SB% SB/9
    Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
    2006 179.1 41 45 91.1 2.06
    2007 173 44 44 100.0 2.29
    2008 102.1 15 17 88.2 1.32

    Hey, at least it’s a start.

That’s all for now; more as it happens…

Links for 22 Oct 08

Notes to self: Always add Sriracha to spaghetti sauce, stop leering at Yvonne Strahovski, listen to more Fishbone

  • Why not us? Comparing Royals’ moves to Rays’ decisions (Kansas City Star). Reader Didi sends this article by Joe Posnanski. There’s plenty of good stuff in here, but looking beyond the article, what gets me is the fact that the Rays won 31 more games in 2008 than they did the previous season. In fact, they bested their previous franchise high in wins by 27. The Padres are coming off a season in which they fell by 26 games. I guess my point is that large yearly fluctuations can and do happen. In San Diego, we have a fairly recent history of dramatic upward movement: ’95 to ’96 (+21), ’97 to ’98 (+22), and ’03 to ’04 (+23). Anyway, just a little something to consider the next time you feel like panicking.
  • Superduperswingmen (Part 4: 1970-2008) (Hardball Times). Steve Treder looks back at some guys who were pretty handy in the rotation or coming out of the bullpen. Several Padres show up here, including Eric Rasmussen, Bob Shirley, and Scott Sanders. Another, Dave Dravecky (’84, ’87), misses the cut by one start. Fun stuff… [h/t Didi]
  • Final 2008 Offense Plus Defense (OPD) Results (Baseball Think Factory) Chris Dial talks value. I haven’t looked at the methodology, but those are some nice showings from Jody Gerut and Brian Giles. [h/t Pat]
  • What does a potential Peavy trade mean to San Diego Padres fans? (Gaslamp Ball). Quoth Dex: “Just because Sandy Alderson has a particular philosophy that has worked in the past doesn’t mean that I have to like it. There’s a good chance that I won’t like it regardless of how hard he and his supporters try to convince me that I’m stupid for not liking it.” Once upon a time I wanted to go into teaching. I even worked as a teacher’s aide for a semester at a junior high school. That’s where I learned that people will believe what they want to believe no matter what you tell them. That’s where I decided that teaching wasn’t for me. If the effect is the same regardless of my presence, I’d just as soon save my energy for something else. Sigh…

There you go. More links are available at the Ducksnorts delicious page, which I update as often as practical.

Random Tuesday (21 Oct 08)

I thought I’d take a little random walk through the archives and highlight a few old posts. Not that I’m one for nostalgia, but sometimes it’s fun to remember where you’ve been…

From August 24, 2001:

Raley Field opened May 15, 2000, and seats, well, I’m not sure, but there were over 12,000 last night. We sat in the lower deck, off the first-base side, just beneath an overhang and behind the Krispy Kreme donut stand. I took some pictures but unfortunately, due to technical difficulties, I won’t be able to post those till I return home.

The matchup featured an up-and-comer versus a former top prospect trying to make it back to the bigs. The River Cats of Sacramento sent LHP Mario Ramos to the mound; RHP Jason Grilli toed the rubber for Calgary. Ramos, whom I’d seen pitch in college, was in command early and got into a good rhythm, keeping hitters off balance by changing speeds and moving the ball around the plate.

Grilli was less sharp but pitched well, allowing only a monster two-run homer to left by Jason Hart, who later hit another, even more majestic blast to left. The guy has some serious power. Sacramento’s other runs came via a Mark Bellhorn grand slam to right-center. Third baseman Eric Hinske, swindled from the Chicago Cubs, also looked solid at the plate, if a bit rough in the field.

Ramos flirted with a no-hitter. Former Padres right-hander Jon Adkins and current Oakland A’s second baseman Mark Ellis also played in this game.

From April 13, 2004:

Lancaster is known as one of the best hitting parks in the Cal League, partly because it is about 2500 feet above sea level and partly because of the winds, especially at night. In the game we were at, the wind swirled and shifted constantly but only gusted once or twice. One local we talked to suggested that the ball carries a lot better at night. (This same person also defended the opposition’s stealing second in the eighth inning of an 8-2 game; it is worth noting that nobody on the JetHawks so much as batted an eye when that happened.)

The game itself wasn’t particularly well played. Arizona prospect Conor Jackson took some nice cuts at the plate. He didn’t have a great line, but he did a nice job going after a couple of good breaking balls. Jackson reminded me a little, physically, of the Angels’ Tim Salmon. Big, strapping kid. Obvious power. A bit raw in left field. Good idea at the plate, probably a shade too good for the league.

This is the game where Wally Backman let loose with F-bombs on Easter Sunday. There were maybe a hundred people at the ballpark, and half of them were kids waiting for the after-game egg hunt. Inappropriate? Yeah. Funny? Yeah. I mean, if you didn’t bring a kid. ;-)

Man, I love the minor leagues…

Writing the Book (20 Oct 08)

SmittyLife happened this week; the book, not so much. I did make up some ground over the weekend — put in about 10 hours on Saturday and another 4-5 on Sunday. It’s not as much as I’d have liked, but it’s better than nothing.

In addition to the actual writing, I’m playing a lot with design elements. People have been telling me for years that I suck at design, so I’m trying to make that less true. I’ve been studying fonts and settled on a couple that should be a huge improvement over the uninspired Arial/Times New Roman combination that I employed in the first two books. (For those who care about such things, I’m going with Gill Sans MT/Palatino Linotype.)

I’ve also gotten my first look at some cover ideas. We’re still in the early development stages, but I’m digging the concept in a big way.

As for content, a first draft of the Player Dashboards chapter is about two-thirds complete. I’ve finished the main position players and I’m about halfway through the pitchers. Then I have to slap a little something together for guys who played smaller roles, e.g., Justin Germano, Paul McAnulty.

The chapter figures to run about 55-60 pages. I’m hoping to finish it later this week.

I also started — in a very loose sense — working on the Farm Report chapter. Mainly I identified which players in the system might be worthy of discussion. I’ve come up with 113 names, which strikes me as a bit excessive; I think I did 75-80 last year.

The big question is whether to include only the “prospects” or go deeper. I just don’t know how much value it adds to have a blurb on Sam Carter that says something like, “Decent power, prone to strikeouts, old for his league, not a member of SG-1.”

Finally, I’ve decided on a charity for this year’s book. A portion of the proceeds will go to FOCAS, which is the organizaton through which we adopted our Boston Terrier, Smitty. And unless Oprah suddenly decides that everyone needs to read the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual and makes me rich beyond my wildest dreams, “a portion” really means “all.”

There it is. Rock on…

Links for 17 Oct 08

The topic du jour seems to be Jake Peavy, so let’s get busy…

  • Paul DePodesta weighs in on the situation [h/t LynchMob]: “If you have something you value at one million dollars, it would be foolish to refuse to consider selling it for twenty million dollars. On the flip side, it would also be foolish to sell it for anything less than one million. The thing that makes the market work is that each player has a different value to virtually every Club.” It’s sorta sad that he has to explain this stuff, but there you go.
  • Over at Gaslamp Ball, jbox talks about Peavy’s apparent desire to leave San Diego: “He’s in a safer place because [Sandy] Alderson can’t really fire him. Being the star player allows him to say what a lot of other players probably wish they could say and it’s refreshing to hear it.” I’ve said it before, but Peavy is becoming the new Phil Nevin, the guy who will run his mouth as much as his talent lets him. I’ve been watching Peavy pitch since he was at Elsinore, and it would kill me to see him leave. At the same time, if a guy doesn’t want to be here, then maybe he shouldn’t be here. As for the star player mouthing off, I’ve never been able to get behind that sort of behavior. I’ve worked with prima donnas before, and mainly what they’ve inspired in me is an intense desire to smack them.
  • Dave Cameron at FanGraphs offers his take: “Despite his shiny 2.85 ERA, 2008 was pretty clearly the worst Peavy has pitched since 2003, which was his first full year in the majors and the year before he broke out into an established front line starter.” Worst since 2003? Uh, except for 2006.
  • From ESPN’s Buster Olney: “Multiple sources consider it likely the Padres will deal Peavy in the weeks ahead, and that is a virtual certainty that he will be traded before the July 31 deadline next season. The Padres are seeking at least two young pitchers in return, along with someone who can become the team’s everyday center fielder sometime in the immediate to near future.” In other news, nothing has happened yet.
  • On the non-Peavy front, Corey Brock at Padres.com delivers some bad news: “Pitcher Mike Adams, one of the biggest surprises in 2008 and one of the Padres’ most successful relief pitchers, will miss the start of the 2009 season after having surgery to repair a torn labrum and damage to his rotator cuff.” Best-case has him back by Opening Day, but he might not be available until June or July. With the way Heath Bell pitched after the All-Star break in ’08, this is bad news. I’m sure Adams, who has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, isn’t real thrilled either.
  • Corey also delivers some good news: “Citing an uncertain economy, the Padres have chosen not to raise season ticket prices for 2009.” I’m pretty sure “an uncertain economy” is a euphemism for “the fact that people stopped going to games last year.”
  • Finally, in case you missed it, Baseball Prospectus has bought Baseball Digest Daily. So, yeah, now I kind of work for Prospectus.

More links are available at the Ducksnorts delicious page, which I update as often as practical. Happy Friday!