OBG08 Revisited: Pitchers

We’re looking back at our pre-season community projections. On Wednesday we covered the hitters; today we turn to the pitchers.


Justin Hampson, 2008
Projected 48 4.21
Actual 30.2 2.93

Our most optimistic projection had Hampson at a 3.50 ERA.

Joe Thatcher, 2008
Projected 58 2.86
Actual 25.2 8.42

We missed this about as badly as we could. So did other people: CHONE had Thatcher’s ERA at 3.67, Marcels had it at 3.86, ZiPS at 2.96.

Randy Wolf, 2008
Projected 124 4.18
Actual 190.1 4.30

Wolf’s ERA for the Padres was 4.74. The bigger shock is that he made it through a season healthy for the first time since 2003. I wouldn’t mind seeing him back in San Diego next year. I can think of worse options, many of which I got to see firsthand after Wolf was traded to the Astros.


Heath Bell, 2008
Projected 81 2.76
Actual 78 3.58

Bell before the All-Star break: 2.15 ERA; after: 6.18.

Kevin Cameron, 2008
Projected 53 3.78
Actual 10 3.60

This projection looks better than it is. Anything can happen in 10 innings. For example, a guy can give up more unearned runs than earned, like Cameron did.

Justin Germano, 2008
Projected 81 4.62
Actual 43.2 5.98

Smoke. Mirrors. Pumpkin.

Clay Hensley, 2008
Projected 80 4.43
Actual 39 5.31

Sometimes a guy coming back from surgery needs time.

Trevor Hoffman, 2008
Projected 51 3.21
Actual 45.1 3.77

Despite all the early-season hand-wringing about whether Hoffman had anything left in the proverbial tank, he finished the season with respectable numbers. We missed on this one, but not by much.

Greg Maddux, 2008
Projected 191 4.09
Actual 194 4.22

Bullseye. Maddux’s ERA was 3.99 when he left the Padres.

Cla Meredith, 2008
Projected 72 2.97
Actual 70.1 4.09

We got the workload right, but missed badly on performance. Even the most pessimistic among us had Meredith’s ERA at 3.41.

Jake Peavy, 2008
Projected 212 2.81
Actual 173.2 2.85

We gave Peavy a full complement of starts, but otherwise this looks good to me.

Mark Prior, 2008
Projected 68 4.16
Actual - -

This still wasn’t a bad gamble.

Chris Young, 2008
Projected 179 3.23
Actual 102.1 3.96

Young hasn’t been right for a long time, or at least he hadn’t been until toward the end of 2008. His ERA after the All-Star break, when he was mostly healthy, checked in at 3.35. It’s only eight starts, so the usual small-sample caveats apply, but this is much more in line with our expectations than the 4.50 ERA he posted in the season’s first half.

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12 Responses »

  1. OT but… I never really paid attention, but with the exit of Maddux, the Padres don’t have any players (save Dykstra) as a client of Scott Boras. Interesting….


  2. Joe Sheehan does something that never gets old. He undresses Tim McCarver:


  3. Padres calimed Travis Denker off waivers from the Giants…Wow I’m really suprised the Giants let this kid go.

  4. Waiver claim of 22 year old second basemen Travis Denker could be a nifty one. Denker’s minor league numbers at AAA level are more than acceptable.

  5. #3@Steve C, #4@JP: Denker is an interesting pickup; I’m not quite sure why he became available either. The guy has a pretty solid minor-league track record. Seems like someone who could be useful…

  6. DePodesta wrote about Denker:


    Towers said Denker will compete with Matt Antonelli, Luis Rodriguez and Edgar Gonzalez for the second base job.

    “I don’t see us going out and getting a second baseman,” Towers said.

  7. #5@Geoff Young: I think this is a great pickup. Next to Antonelli and Sogard, he gives us another legit shot at a young long-term 2B. His numbers were good in the minors and even his cup of coffee with SF this year was pretty good. He worked his way from A+ to MLB within the 2008 season. I am with you, Geoff, not quite sure why he was available in the first place.

  8. Speaking of Giants, they released Brad Hennessey; anyone interested in picking him up as a spare arm in the bullpen?

    I don’t understand why Denker is there unless they really saw something in him, that we haven’t, that they really didn’t like. But that doesn’t add up for a guy who ran up the ladder so fast. Btw DePo didn’t say Denker would compete for the 2B job, I mentioned it in the comments.

    Does anyone see any of the guys we picked up during the year like Reinke or Baek making an impact in the bullpen in the 2009 season?

  9. Denker: Denker’s a very smart pickup. Sometimes guys are let go for a legitimate reason, other times they’re just undervalued (Heath Bell, Linebrink, etc.). Worst case, you get the same crud performance as NOG and Iguchi without paying several million for it, and Antonelli gets another few months at AAA.

    #8@Loren: Zero interest in Hennessey. Reineke and Baek both seem best suited to the pen, and I’d expect both of them to be there.

  10. Worst case, you get the same crud performance as NOG and Iguchi without paying several million for it, and Antonelli gets another few months at AAA


    The games in April are just as important.

    The fact that Towers is refusing to address 2B anymore this winter tells me you are probably right, but it is this mentality that makes it so maddening to be a Padre fan.

  11. I find it interesting that nobody wants to talk about our pitching projections. The less we think about last year’s pitchers, the better? ;-)

  12. #10@wrveres: Of course they are, but if it’s a rebuilding season then it’s silly to spend millions on marginal improvements. And if they don’t have the resources or the desire to fix the pitching, then fixing second base does very little for us.

    #11@Geoff Young: Not a few Padre fans think that Estes would have been a fine 5th starter in 2009. So yes, let us not speak of pitching, because it apparently leads to people being stupid.