Our most optimistic projection had Hampson at a 3.50 ERA.
We missed this about as badly as we could. So did other people: CHONE had Thatcher’s ERA at 3.67, Marcels had it at 3.86, ZiPS at 2.96.
Wolf’s ERA for the Padres was 4.74. The bigger shock is that he made it through a season healthy for the first time since 2003. I wouldn’t mind seeing him back in San Diego next year. I can think of worse options, many of which I got to see firsthand after Wolf was traded to the Astros.
Bell before the All-Star break: 2.15 ERA; after: 6.18.
This projection looks better than it is. Anything can happen in 10 innings. For example, a guy can give up more unearned runs than earned, like Cameron did.
Smoke. Mirrors. Pumpkin.
Sometimes a guy coming back from surgery needs time.
Despite all the early-season hand-wringing about whether Hoffman had anything left in the proverbial tank, he finished the season with respectable numbers. We missed on this one, but not by much.
Bullseye. Maddux’s ERA was 3.99 when he left the Padres.
We got the workload right, but missed badly on performance. Even the most pessimistic among us had Meredith’s ERA at 3.41.
We gave Peavy a full complement of starts, but otherwise this looks good to me.
This still wasn’t a bad gamble.
Young hasn’t been right for a long time, or at least he hadn’t been until toward the end of 2008. His ERA after the All-Star break, when he was mostly healthy, checked in at 3.35. It’s only eight starts, so the usual small-sample caveats apply, but this is much more in line with our expectations than the 4.50 ERA he posted in the season’s first half.