We’re looking back at our pre-season community projections. On Wednesday we covered the hitters; today we turn to the pitchers.
Left-Handers
| IP | ERA | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected | 48 | 4.21 |
| Actual | 30.2 | 2.93 |
Our most optimistic projection had Hampson at a 3.50 ERA.
| IP | ERA | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected | 58 | 2.86 |
| Actual | 25.2 | 8.42 |
We missed this about as badly as we could. So did other people: CHONE had Thatcher’s ERA at 3.67, Marcels had it at 3.86, ZiPS at 2.96.
| IP | ERA | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected | 124 | 4.18 |
| Actual | 190.1 | 4.30 |
Wolf’s ERA for the Padres was 4.74. The bigger shock is that he made it through a season healthy for the first time since 2003. I wouldn’t mind seeing him back in San Diego next year. I can think of worse options, many of which I got to see firsthand after Wolf was traded to the Astros.
Right-Handers
| IP | ERA | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected | 81 | 2.76 |
| Actual | 78 | 3.58 |
Bell before the All-Star break: 2.15 ERA; after: 6.18.
| IP | ERA | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected | 53 | 3.78 |
| Actual | 10 | 3.60 |
This projection looks better than it is. Anything can happen in 10 innings. For example, a guy can give up more unearned runs than earned, like Cameron did.
| IP | ERA | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected | 81 | 4.62 |
| Actual | 43.2 | 5.98 |
Smoke. Mirrors. Pumpkin.
| IP | ERA | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected | 80 | 4.43 |
| Actual | 39 | 5.31 |
Sometimes a guy coming back from surgery needs time.
| IP | ERA | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected | 51 | 3.21 |
| Actual | 45.1 | 3.77 |
Despite all the early-season hand-wringing about whether Hoffman had anything left in the proverbial tank, he finished the season with respectable numbers. We missed on this one, but not by much.
| IP | ERA | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected | 191 | 4.09 |
| Actual | 194 | 4.22 |
Bullseye. Maddux’s ERA was 3.99 when he left the Padres.
| IP | ERA | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected | 72 | 2.97 |
| Actual | 70.1 | 4.09 |
We got the workload right, but missed badly on performance. Even the most pessimistic among us had Meredith’s ERA at 3.41.
| IP | ERA | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected | 212 | 2.81 |
| Actual | 173.2 | 2.85 |
We gave Peavy a full complement of starts, but otherwise this looks good to me.
| IP | ERA | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected | 68 | 4.16 |
| Actual | - | - |
This still wasn’t a bad gamble.
| IP | ERA | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected | 179 | 3.23 |
| Actual | 102.1 | 3.96 |
Young hasn’t been right for a long time, or at least he hadn’t been until toward the end of 2008. His ERA after the All-Star break, when he was mostly healthy, checked in at 3.35. It’s only eight starts, so the usual small-sample caveats apply, but this is much more in line with our expectations than the 4.50 ERA he posted in the season’s first half.