Lousy, Yet Affordable

by Geoff Young on May 11, 2009 (19) Comments

Another day, another loss. We had tickets for Monday night, but I didn’t get off work until 7 p.m. and the knee was killing me, so instead we watched on TV over Greek salad and Sam’s spaghetti with spinach and blue cheese.

Why does Kevin Correia’s windup put him in such horrible fielding position? He lands on the first base side of the mound, with the front of his body perpendicular to home plate. I thought only guys who throw hard did that.

Scott Hairston gives the Padres a short-lived lead in the fifth with a line-drive three-run homer to left. Why does he ever see a fastball for a strike?

In the sixth, Henry Blanco nails Dexter Fowler trying to swipe second. It’s a strong, low throw, although I’m not sure Fowler was out.

Bullpen torches the place in the seventh. Edwin Moreno preps everything and Cla Meredith lights the fuse. Serves up a grand slam to Chris Iannetta.

Meredith entered the game with one out and the bases loaded, which as I noted in the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual is not when you want to use him. Here’s an updated look at his numbers in those situations through May 10, 2009:

When Not to Use Cla Meredith, 2007-2009
  PA BA OBP SLG
*Includes third base only, first and third, second and third, and bases loaded.
Runner at third* 111 .446 .477 .565
High-leverage 203 .354 .399 .519
Overall 693 .297 .345 .391

As you can see, Meredith becomes a very different pitcher in pressure situations.

Here is the sequence to Iannetta, who stepped to the plate with a .182 batting average:

  1. Fastball, 86 mph; inside, 1-0
  2. Fastball, 85 mph; inner half, grounded foul third base side, 1-1
  3. Fastball, 86 mph; outside, 2-1
  4. Fastball, 86 mph; outer half, thigh high, grounded foul third base side, 2-2
  5. Fastball, 86 mph; down the middle, thigh high, grand slam to left

The fifth pitch is similar to the second and the fourth pitches except that instead of running back in on Iannetta’s hands, it hangs out over the plate, where he can make solid contact.

* * *

Why do the worst drivers have the nicest cars?

* * *

Meredith’s meltdown was predictable. Manager Bud Black deployed him in a manner that minimized his chances for success.

Is this Black’s fault? Well, his starter, Correia, failed to survive the fourth inning, so Black had to run through a string of relievers before the game even reached the seventh. He couldn’t bring Heath Bell into the game that early. He could, but closers haven’t been used that way since the days of Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter.

What other options did Black have? Luke Gregerson? Arturo Lopez? Luis Perdomo? Duaner Sanchez?

That is so funny it hurts.

Black has to work with what he’s been given, which points to the larger question: How can you enter a season with four legitimate big-league pitchers and hope to survive, let alone contend? MGL at Inside the Book wants to see Black fired (h/t Friar Forecast) but fails to answer this question: What manager could succeed with the current Padres pitching staff?

Go ahead, name one.

* * *

Turned 40 on Tuesday, and the Padres won. We brought tuna salad sandwiches, chips, and cookies to the game. Sat in our new season seats for the first time. Section 303. Best we’ve had at Petco. Thank you, fair weather fans.

This was the worst-attended regular-season game since the Padres moved downtown. Nice of them to clear out all the riff-raff for my special day.

Felt like ’93. Or the WBC.

Josh Geer pitched the game of his life. Dude was brilliant except for a leadoff homer to Iannetta in the eighth. What is up with that guy? Brad Hawpe or Todd Helton, okay. Maybe Garrett Atkins. But Iannetta?

Hairston, starting in left field for an injured Chase Headley, almost broke the game open in the first. Screaming line drive toward left-center that 6’3″ shortstop Troy Tulowitzki jumped for and snared.

Hairston looked lost in his other at-bats. He gets into the habit of sitting on fastballs and then taking horrendous hacks at breaking balls down and away. He’s back in that mode now.

In the fifth, Giles was thrown out trying to take third on a hit-and-run grounder. The good ol’ 6-3-6 double play. Nice idea, but you can’t pause at second to think about it before committing. Go or don’t go. He ended up driving the game winner, a double to right-center in the 10th, so all is forgiven.

* * *

Are the Sliversun Pickups the new Smashing Pumpkins? Do I care?

* * *

Okay, so maybe the offense sucks a little. No runs in seven innings against Jon Garland on Wednesday?

The offense has gone AWOL. So have the fans. The Padres averaged fewer than 16,000 per night for their most recent four-game homestand, May 4-7 against division rivals.

On the one hand, as Craig Elsten notes, it’s cool to hang out at the ballpark and enjoy the games with actual fans (as opposed to being surrounded by people who show up and pretend to love the Padres only when they’re winning). On the other, it’s sad to see Petco at about 30% capacity.

* * *

Manny Ramirez has been suspended 50 games for violating MLB’s substance abuse policy. I enjoy schadenfreude as much as the next guy, but that sucks. Kind of like the fact that Ken Caminiti admitted to using steroids during his MVP season for the Padres in ’96. It takes a little something out of me as a fan that is difficult to replace.

Am I happy that the Dodgers will do battle with Juan Pierre in left instead of Ramirez for a couple months? Well, duh. But it still sucks for baseball and its fans.

What gets me is that even now, with all the testing in place, nobody is above suspicion. What am I supposed to do? Assume that everyone is cheating? That is a deeply cynical view that has far-reaching implications in terms of how I view humanity. Stop caring? Well, nihilism isn’t my bag either.

I should just watch Little League games. Some of those kids are probably clean.

* * *

Neil Young’s “Rockin’ in the Free World” on the radio. One of my songs from the band days.

The Padres won in 10 innings on Thursday afternoon. Meredith improved to 4-0. He didn’t win a single game in 2008. The Padres haven’t won a 9-inning contest since April 28.

* * *

Watched Stephen Strasburg no-hit Air Force on Friday night in the final regular-season home game of his collegiate career. Two walks, 17 strikeouts, one hard-hit ball — liner off the bat of first baseman Addison Gentry in the fourth carried to the left-field warning track.

So much hype surrounding Strasburg, but that comes with talent. I’ll be addressing the hype thing in this week’s post at Baseball Prospectus. (By the way, my weekly BDD column is moving to Baseball Prospectus — adjust your reality accordingly.)

The short version is that it has become difficult to write about Strasburg. He might as well have a blue ox named Babe.

Meanwhile, the Padres are putting me in an awkward position. I keep defending their offense, and then they keep struggling to score runs.

First they had no pitching, now they have no hitting. What is the opposite of synergy? Government? Through May 10:

Month OPS ERA RS/G RA/G
April 753 4.95 4.36 5.23
May 606 4.21 2.60 4.50

Actually, the Padres still don’t have much pitching. It’s just that they lowered the bar so far in April that anything looks good in comparison.

* * *

Is Hillcrest the new La Jolla?

* * *

The Padres lost again on Saturday. Bullpen coughed up another late lead. Sun rose and set. Gravity remains in effect.

Giles just missed a homer in the eighth. Turned on an inside fastball from Geoff Geary, hooked it foul down the right-field line. Headley drove home the go-ahead run later that inning with a double to right-center off Houston closer LaTroy Hawkins.

Luke Gregerson then gave a clinic on how not to protect a lead. Up 4-3, he walked the first two batters in the home half. (Technically, Gregerson departed on a 2-0 count to the second; Meredith came on to finish the job.) Both scored, with the latter being the game winner.

Small sample or not, this bullpen is brutal. It’s worse than last year’s, which didn’t seem possible. It might rank up there with ’74, ’97, and ’03 in terms of futility. Aside from Heath Bell, who is superfluous on a team that doesn’t win games, there are no reliable relievers in sight.

* * *

Speaking of brutal, how about Sunday? Three runs in the first and then it got ugly. By the time we left for Indian buffet, the score was 8-2 with nobody out in the fourth.

Geer worked behind in the count all morning. When your fastball runs mid-80s, you can’t get away with that.

Help on the horizon? Maybe not so much. Cha Seung Baek felt pain in his elbow during what was supposed to be his final rehab appearance at Portland on Saturday.

* * *

Luis Rodriguez leads the Padres with 19 walks. That’s two more than Adrian Gonzalez — in 42 fewer plate appearances.

* * *

At least the Padres don’t have the worst pitching in baseball. That would be the Yankees, who dropped $243 million on C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Ladies and gentlemen, your bottom five teams in ERA+ through May 10:

  • Nationals: 83
  • Padres: 82
  • Phillies: 82
  • Indians: 82
  • Yankees: 81

So the Padres are lousy, yet affordable. Hey, did I just come up with a new marketing slogan?

Play with Your Food

by Geoff Young on May 04, 2009 (24) Comments

I have the strangest dreams...I have the strangest dreams…

Maybe the Padres will do okay this year. In your heart of hearts, you don’t believe it, but you’ll commit to it over olives on a fork and flutes of champagne. You’ll sneak it into conversation, right between “My kid is smart, he’s just not motivated” and “I watch Giada De Laurentis for the recipes.”

Mmm, tomatoes.

* * *

Made it home in time to see the Padres down, 6-5, in the fourth at Coors Field Monday night. Rocky Mountain Pinball. Check-Swing Pachinko. Bobbing for Homers. Duck-Duck-Boom. Anti-Baseball.

Ex-Padre Glendon Rusch (you remember him as the pitcher who couldn’t get anyone out and also as the guy standing at home plate with a bat on his shoulder to end last year’s 22-inning affair against the Rockies) is on the mound with runners at the corners and nobody out. He gets Adrian Gonzalez swinging and then induces Chase Headley to ground into a 5-4-3 double play.

I flip to Jeopardy and see someone win $32,001. The final answer is “George Lucas.” I watch Chuck. Jeffster’s version of “Mr. Roboto” is stunning (if slightly less funny than the original). Fireworks in a church? Inspired.

I flip back to the game. The Padres are losing, 11-7. Jody Gerut needs a triple to become the first player in Padres history to hit for the cycle. Gerut grounds to Todd Helton at first.

* * *

She was making some halibut dish with a grapefruit salsa. Mmm, grapefruit.

* * *

This is anecdotal evidence, but Adrian has had some ugly at-bats against lefties. Monday night it was Rusch. Tuesday it was Jorge de la Rosa — twice.

Adrian expands the strike zone, chases stuff he shouldn’t. It wasn’t always that way. In 2006, he hit .312/.345/.489 against southpaws. Last year he plummeted to .213/.287/.387.

Caught fragments of Tuesday’s win. Saw Headley start a 7-4-3 double play on a hit-and-run sinking liner (“What is, ‘Iceberg’?”). For all of his faults as a left fielder, Headley has a strong arm.

Chad Gaudin made his Padres debut and worked five scoreless innings at Coors. Walked too many — story of the entire staff so far in ’09 — but kept his new team in the game.

Luis Rodriguez, still weak from food poisoning, delivered the game-winning hit. His sharp grounder past a drawn-in Helton plated Nick Hundley, who led off the ninth with a line drive down the right-field line that rattled around in the corner for a triple.

* * *

On April 7, 1992, the Weekly World news ran on its cover the headline, “Satan Escapes from Hell!” The accompanying “photograph” showed grey clouds billowing out of a Texas oil well in the shape of a menacing face with horns. I couldn’t resist; I had to buy a copy.

* * *

Adrian stole second base in Tuesday’s game. Standing up. Without a throw.

The moon landing was faked. John Frum will return to Tanna.

* * *

Friend of Ducksnorts Matt Vasgersian got himself into a little trouble for making a stupid on-air comment that some perceived as having racial overtones. He has apologized for the incident, which isn’t worthy even of being called an incident.

Three disclaimers:

  1. Although I’ve never met Vasgersian in person, I’ve exchanged emails with him and talked to him on the phone. He also contributed the foreword to the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual, which isn’t a reason for me to kiss his ass, in case you’re wondering.
  2. When I was young, we lived in Monterey Park, Calif. I went to school across the street from East Los Angeles Junior College. From kindergarten through third grade, I was the only white kid in my class. Everyone else was Mexican or Japanese. (In an amusing twist, I used to get teased for having “pushed-in eyes.”) In 1979, the school district started bussing white kids in from the San Fernando Valley. We moved to Culver City, on the west side.
  3. I have been married to a second-generation Asian-American for 13+ years. We say some things to each other that would be considered offensive in many contexts. It is our way of acknowledging the differences between our two cultures in a way that doesn’t take the whole thing too seriously. We are respectful, but we have no use for sacred cows. (She grew up in Hawai’i, home of Rap Reiplinger and Frank DeLima.) Also, we know each other well and that our banter comes from a place of love. We don’t hide from our differences; we poke fun at them.

My assumption, based on what I know of Vasgersian, is that he was being a smart-ass and it didn’t work. Yeah, like your jokes never suck.

* * *

She also made a pear and carrot salad with a curry vinaigrette. Mmm, carrots. No, wait; I meant pears. Mmm, pears.

* * *

Wednesday’s contest? I dunno, didn’t see it. The Padres were down, 7-0, and made a game of it. They lost, 7-5. Henry Blanco hit his third home run. He’s got two at Petco this year and one at Coors. The obvious conclusion is that Petco Park is twice as conducive to homers.

You do know how to abuse statistics, right? You should. It’s a handy skill to have.

* * *

Hideki Irabu has signed with the Long Beach Armada of the Golden Baseball League. He inspired the first ever rant at Ducksnorts back in ’97. Not my strongest work, but a guy has to start somewhere. I say we get as many people from San Diego as possible to his first start and all chant, “PRI-SON CAMP! PRI-SON CAMP!” Would that be in poor taste? I hope so.

* * *

The Padres lost again on Thursday, this time to the Dodgers. Adrian roped a double to left-center off lefty Will Ohman. It was a fat pitch — breaking ball that hung and caught too much plate.

I fear we are now seeing the real Padres bullpen. It takes time for scouting reports on minor leaguers to circulate, but you cannot stave off the inevitable forever.

That’s what makes it inevitable.

* * *

The Padres had a team OPS+ of 103 in April. That placed them ninth among the 30 MLB teams. They scored four runs or more in 15 of 22 games, going 11-4 in those contests. It’s a miniscule sample, but see how this compares to recent years:

Padres Scoring Four Runs or More, 2006 – 2009
Year G 4+ Pct W-L Pct
2006 162 89 .549 64-25 .719
2007 163 91 .558 66-25 .725
2008 162 75 .463 50-25 .667
2009 22 15 .682 11-4 .733

Kinda weird that the Padres have lost exactly 25 games that meet this criterion for three straight seasons. Insignificant, but weird. More relevant for our purposes, they scored a lot of runs in April.

How about the flip side? How often do the Padres allow four runs or more in a game, and what happens in those cases?

Padres Allowing Four Runs or More, 2006 – 2009
Year G 4+ Pct W-L Pct
2006 162 83 .512 25-58 .301
2007 163 83 .509 23-60 .277
2008 162 95 .586 18-77 .189
2009 22 14 .636 4-10 .286

In April, the pitchers didn’t do their job well. A big part of the problem was walks. The staff issued 4.07 BB/9 in the season’s first month, as compared to 3.46 in 2008. That’s an extra walk every other game. As Duaner Sanchez reminded us this past week, an extra walk can mean the difference between winning and losing.

* * *

Listening to Bjork’s Post. How can her music sound mechanical and organic at the same time?

* * *

The Padres had a team ERA+ of 80 in April. Nobody in MLB was worse, although the Phillies matched that mark.

Here’s a fun trick you can play on your friends after they’ve had a few too many mimosas at brunch:

  1. If a team wins the World Series, it must be good.
  2. The Phillies won the World Series.
  3. The Phillies sported an 80 ERA+ in April.
  4. The Padres sported an 80 ERA+ in April.
  5. The Padres must be good.
  6. The Padres will win the World Series.

Be careful when delivering this. If you are off by even a little, your head will explode.

* * *

Nice to see farmhands James Darnell and Anthony Bass off to strong starts. I identified them as two of my sleepers in the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual. Thanks, guys, for making me look smart.

* * *

Friday night, another loss at Dodger Stadium. It gets worse, but we don’t know that yet.

Jake Peavy spins eight scoreless innings. Offense goes AWOL. The hitters can’t be expected to carry this team all year.

Top of the sixth, nobody on, two out. Adrian grounds sharply toward shortstop. Rafael Furcal backhands the ball and rushes his throw, skipping it past James Loney for a two-base error. Adrian is two steps from the bag when the ball arrives. Furcal needs to get his eyes checked — how did he not see the piano?

Top of the seventh, Kouzmanoff leads off with a double to left-center. Blanco strikes out and Chris Burke lines to center. Juan Pierre races in, then nearly lets the ball sail over his head before making a “spectacular” catch. Peavy strikes out to end the inning.

Mark Grant wonders aloud whether Blanco should have sacrificed Kouz to third, noting that the latter would have scored on Burke’s fly ball. I wonder aloud whether, if Kouz is on third with one out and Peavy is on deck, Burke even sees a strike? We will never know.

I missed most of Sanchez’s walkfest in the ninth. Saw the game winner to Russell Martin. That was one heckuva plate appearance by Martin. He fought off some nasty sliders down and away before spitting on a 3-2 fastball just above the letters.

The game almost ended twice earlier with Martin at the plate. First, Blanco smothered a slider in the dirt to keep Orlando Hudson at third. Then, Martin lunged at and rolled another slider up the third-base line. Kouz charged hard and went to barehand it before pulling back at the last moment, letting it dribble foul. Sanchez was already walking off the mound.

* * *

Didn’t see Saturday night’s loss. Visiting with friends from out of town.

If the Padres can’t win with Peavy and Young on the mound, then what chance do they have with Gaudin, Geer, and Correia?

* * *

Brunch at the Catamaran. Early birthday present. Excellent food, too many mimosas.

Walk along the bay, sit in the shade at Fanuel Street Park. Kids, bicycles, dogs, birds, fish jumping up out of the water, sailboats. Dude in a Chargers shirt deep in conversation with the yellow parrot perched on his shoulder. Roller skates, random bits of conversation. Man jogging turns to his companion:

There was a spot on the optical scanner. I told 100 patients they were going to die. Some of them were quite upset.

Grass, ducks, boats — I already mentioned the boats. There were many boats. Cloudless sky. Ripples on the bay.

* * *

The Padres are getting trounced again and I’m not watching. Should have crowned a champion after 12 games. If they break the ’62 Mets record for futility despite the hot start — well, that would require extraordinary effort.

Extraordinary is good. Beats ordinary, right?

Sipping decaf. Dogs snore, jets from Miramar soar overhead.

I turn on the TV to check the score. Dodgers are up, 3-1, with two out in the sixth. Chad Billingsley faces Nick Hundley with the bases loaded. Cutter on the outside corner at the knees, called strike one. Curve ball down, swinging strike two. Curve ball down, swinging strike three. Inning over.

Three pitches tell me everything I need to know. That’s not a lot of baseball, but on this day, it is too much. I turn off the TV. I’ve got articles to write, laundry to fold, bills to pay.

What did hope feel like? Did you salivate when you saw some lady hit the jackpot at the next poker machine?

Gaudin works five scoreless in his Padres debut at Coors, then gets pummeled at Dodger Stadium. Does he not understand park factors? Or worse, do they not understand him?

* * *

My recommendation: Next time someone asks you what happened to the Padres after their 9-3 start, look ‘em square in the eye and say, “Cantaloupe and watermelon salad.” Then pop another olive in your mouth and walk away.

Eight Sliders Sliding

by Geoff Young on Apr 27, 2009 (19) Comments

Got my coffee. Got my Neko Case. Like when I drove from Asheville to Durham en route to Cooperstown for Tony Gwynn’s Hall of Fame induction. So many trees. I miss the road.

* * *

jody-gerutJody Gerut rocks the ’69 uni

Stupid game Tuesday night at PhoneCo. Top of the fourth, Kevin Kouzmanoff bangs a double off the Levi’s sign in right, misses a homer by maybe two feet. Adrian Gonzalez at second, Chase Headley at first.

Kouzmanoff’s drive caroms past right fielder Randy Winn, but center fielder Aaron Rowand pounces on it and fires a strike to first baseman Travis Ishikawa, who spins and throws home to a waiting Bengie Molina. Both Padres runners arrive about the same time. One of these guys — you know which one — is molasses tortoise sundial slow.

Molina swipes at a sliding Gonzalez, who catches the plate with his left foot and who is ruled safe. Molina then tags Headley trying to leap over the sprawled Giants catcher. Molina is furious. He wants the crazy Carlton Fisk double play.

Such baserunning. Where’s Ruben Rivera when you need him?

The bottom of the fourth is worse. Molina punches a leadoff single up the middle off Jake Peavy. Rowand follows with a check swing roller to second that advances the runner. Peavy drops Pablo Sandoval with a fastball high and tight. Sandoval responds by slashing a grounder down the third-base line. Kouzmanoff dives to his right and stops the ball but struggles to transfer it to his throwing hand, and Sandoval beats the throw with ease. Even with a clean transition, Sandoval is safe. He is built like a soup can, but he scoots.

Then it’s Peavy versus Ishikawa. What I see:

  1. Slider, outside corner at the knees; called strike, 0-1
  2. Slider, same spot; Ishikawa bounces it foul to the right side, 0-2
  3. Slider, outside; ball, 1-2
  4. Slider, just outside; ball, 2-2
  5. Slider, out over the plate; another grounder foul to the right side, still 2-2
  6. Slider, just outside; ball, 3-2
  7. Slider, down and away; Ishikawa walks (Pitch f/x calls this a curveball)

Why is Peavy nibbling with a guy like Ishikawa? And what’s up with seven straight sliders? When Edgar Renteria steps to the plate, do you suppose he might be looking for that pitch? When he gets it down the middle, belt high, do you suppose he might deposit it a dozen rows back in the left-field bleachers?

Peavy says the pitch was a cutter designed to induce a grounder. It looks like a slider to me, and Pitch f/x identifies it the same way. Whatever the case, like the seven that preceded it, the pitch runs 81-88 mph and breaks laterally away from a right-handed hitter. It also carries well when struck with wood.

* * *

Wednesday’s game isn’t televised, which is good. Nobody should have to watch their team get shut down by Barry Zito.

* * *

One of my writing heroes, W.S. Merwin, received the Pulitzer Prize for poetry. I haven’t read the award-winning collection, but his Second Four Books of Poems is seldom far from my reach. Merwin’s language is clean, simple, and powerful.

I almost met him in the mid-’90s, when Mrs. Ducksnorts and I visited a friend who lived on his property in Maui. Alas, while we were eating lunch at my friend’s house, Merwin went out for a walk on the grounds. By the time he returned, we had left.

Life is like that.

* * *

Friday we watch Stephen Strasburg pitch against TCU. Sellout crowd. Largest ever at Tony Gwynn Stadium.

Strasburg gives up three runs on four hits over seven innings. Fourteen strikeouts.

First hit is a grounder to deep shortstop in the third. Then two bloop singles in the seventh, ahead of a home run to left by TCU catcher Bryan Holaday, the only hard-hit ball of the night. Comes on a 3-1 fastball out over the plate.

Two of the strikeouts merit further discussion. In the first inning, Matt Carpenter tries to check his swing on a 3-2 slider. The pitch bounces in the dirt and skips onto the screen behind home plate, out of play. Then in the sixth, again on a breaking ball, the pitch clanks off catcher Erik Castro and rolls out toward the mound, where Strasburg picks it up and fires to first to complete the putout.

Strasburg has the stuff and command to succeed in the big leagues. He could hold his own right now as a reliever, using two pitches, an inning or two at a time.

Two open questions: How will he handle adversity when he faces hitters who don’t wilt at his pitches? Also, does he love his slider too much? I don’t know the answer to either of these, but he is fun to watch.

* * *

After stopping for sushi and ramen, we come home to watch the final few innings of the Padres game. Great job by the bullpen: Edward Mujica, Luke Gregerson, Heath Bell, and Edwin Moreno are fantastic.

Bell works a scoreless ninth to hold a 3-3 tie. One good thing about Trevor Hoffman being gone is that Bud Black can bring his closer into a non-save situation at home without everyone getting their panties in a bunch.

It must have been satisfying for Moreno to pick up his first big-league victory after blowing the save walkoff style in Philly last week. I still don’t believe in him, but I hope he makes me look like a jackass for saying that. We need Moreno to be better than I think he is.

Good to see Brian Giles get the game-winning hit. People were starting to panic with less than 10% of the season complete, and we can’t have that.

* * *

Geoff, Elsewhere

Shameless bit o’ self-promotion. My latest stuff on the tubes:

  • Once upon a shortstop (THT). Remember when Garry Templeton was better than Ozzie Smith, and Rick Burleson was better than both of them?
  • It’s Early, Things Are Weird (BDD). It concerns me that my teams are doing so well in the early going. If this were September, I wouldn’t know what do with myself. Thankfully it’s still only April, so there’s plenty of time for normalcy to be restored…
  • The cult of the sure thing (THT). With all the hype surrounding SDSU right-hander Stephen Strasburg this spring, I got to thinking about prospects and predicting their future. It’s harder than it looks. In fact, it’s impossible. The best we can do is make educated guesses based on assumptions and then hope we are right…
  • Pitch for the Minors (BDD). I attended my first minor-league game in 1987. Opening Day at Old Orchard Beach, Maine. The Maine Guides hosted the Columbus Clippers. Veteran Al Holland started for Columbus. Prospects Jay Buhner and Orestes Destrade were the big names behind him…

* * *

Pancakes for breakfast. Write a little, then drive to San Juan Capistrano to meet the ‘rents for lunch. Fish and chips, cole slaw, decaf black, cherry pie, good conversation. Tempted to take the long way home, but we have a game tonight.

The Padres are celebrating their inaugural 1969 season. Replica jersey giveaway. Players rock old school unis for the game. They should wear these more often (or look to the guys at Sacrifice Bunt for other ideas).

Five members of the original team — Steve Arlin, Chris Cannizzaro, Roger Craig, Fred Kendall, and Ed Spiezio — come out to throw the first pitch. Padres then add a touch of authenticity to the proceedings by playing like the ’69 squad and losing to the Pirates, 10-1.

Shawn Hill looked terrible. Not surprising given that his reconstructed elbow is hurting again (Chad Gaudin is expected to take his spot in the rotation). Josh Geer looked worse, but lasted twice as long.

Frankie De La Cruz? Five walks in two innings. I don’t care how hard you throw; if it’s nowhere near the plate, you’re not a pitcher. Ask Wil Ledezma. Ability to throw strikes isn’t a luxury, it’s part of the job description.

Highlights? Scott Hairston tripled to lead off the sixth and scored the Padres only run. In the third, David Eckstein did something I’d never seen. Backed up first base on a ground ball to pitcher Geer off the bat of Eric Hinske. Eckstein ended up in foul territory down the right-field line.

It’s fashionable in certain circles to poke fun at Eckstein’s “grittiness.” That’s fine, as long as people recognize that the guy plays good baseball.

* * *

toby-and-smitty-at-mission-baySmitty and Toby at Mission Bay

Wake up early, take the dogs to Mission Bay. Sniff grass, dig sand. Smitty loves it. So does Toby.

My head hurts from lack of sleep and caffeine. I fix a big batch of oatmeal and sift through the week’s notes in the hope that something will make sense.

* * *

Up to Elsinore for another Storm game. No such thing as too much baseball.

Stadium is packed. Nearly cloudless sky, but not too hot. Soothing breeze rolls in off the lake.

cory-luebkeCory Luebke delivers

We’re in Section 101, Row E, with the pitchers and scouts. Cory Luebke starts for the Storm and gets pounded. Preston Mattingly and Scott Van Slyke play for the 66ers. I don’t know if these kids are any good, but their dads were.

Get my first look at Logan Forsythe. He does nothing to impress at the plate, but makes a few nice plays on short hops at the hot corner.

Yefri Carvajal cripples a hanging curve in the sixth. Lines the 1-2 offering from Kendy Batista over the left-field wall to tie the game, 4-4. Carvajal looked terrible against the breaking ball earlier in the game. He is strong, but his swing gets long.

Felix Carrasco works deep into the count several times. Walk, two singles — one a screaming liner off the right-field fence.

Missed Sunday’s 8-3 loss to the Pirates. In looking at the box score, the problem seems obvious: The Padres allowed too many runs and scored too few. Fix that, win the game. There’s your plan; go implement it.

* * *

I am relieved that the Padres have lost five out of six. I’ve said that this team will win 72-75 games. When they shot out to a 9-3 start, people began asking questions. My catch phrase became, “I have no idea,” which is a terrible catch phrase.

We grow uncomfortable when our team does well. Shoes get upset, applecarts drop.

I also get a kick out of hearing people fall off the bandwagon. Twelve games is enough to make you believe, six enough to make you doubt? This is a calculus I do not understand.

The ones I feel for are the pundits that thought the Padres would threaten the ’62 Mets in terms of futility. The season is young, but right now San Diego would need to go 31-113 the rest of the way. That doesn’t seem likely. Then again, neither did 99 losses last year.

The future doesn’t give a rat’s ass about anyone’s predictions. The world does what it does, whether we like it or not.

Do What You Cannot Do

by Geoff Young on Apr 20, 2009 (17) Comments

The way it works with cover bands in this town is you play two nights — Friday and Saturday — from 9 p.m. to close. Three one-hour sets punctuated by 10-minute breaks, with a longer (80-minute) set to end the night.

Geoff and his guitar
Wait, are we playing Jimmy Buffet and then Slayer, or is it the other way around?

First set is oldies, mellow stuff, and anything we’re trying to work into the repertoire — Beatles, Eagles, Crowded House. Second set is classic rock. Third is upbeat music for dancing — Kool and the Gang, Commodores, Romantics, a little AC/DC to give a hint of things to come. Fourth set is for the headbangers. People stop in for one final drink on their way home from wherever they were. Judas Priest, Bush, White Stripes, Lit. Not all classic metal bands, but we play ‘em hard.

One Friday night I’m sick as hell. We’ve been wanting this gig for a long time, so I’m not about to bail. I’ve got a Gibson Les Paul (Studio, not Standard, thank goodness) strapped to my back for 4+ hours and I sing lead on about a dozen songs. I’m pounding water to keep my throat lubed. I take catnaps in my car between sets. My voice gives out toward the end of the third set, so we have to rearrange our fourth set to get rid of all my songs — no Green Day, no White Stripes, no Neil Young.

Details of that night are fuzzy, but I remember my bandmates telling me after the show that they’d never heard me play guitar like that before. Didn’t know I had it in me. I have no idea what I played, and how much of their praise was an attempt to keep me motivated for Saturday’s show, but I’m guessing that since most of my energy was focused on not passing out onstage, I didn’t concern myself so much with playing according to my capabilities. I kinda said “screw it” and let fly with whatever, hoping for the best.

One thing I do remember is going a little crazy during The Doors’ “Roadhouse Blues.” There’s this long, drawn-out solo that starts with a bunch of fast Chuck Berry licks and then goes on for-friggin’-ever. At some point I get tired of playing single notes, so I start throwing down chords. This is the fourth set and we play it heavy, so I bust out the riff from Metallica’s “For Whom the Bell Tolls.” That got some looks, but it’s a great riff that works surpsingly well here. Plus it’s a lot easier than noodling around in pentatonic scale purgatory. The headbangers dig it because Metallica rules. My bandmates dig it because — dude, what the hell are you doing?

They didn’t know I had that in me. I’m not sure I did have it in me, but there it was.

I made it through the Saturday show, too. Then I crashed hard and slept for two days.

* * *

Cocteau Twins in my head. Cheap lamp to my left. A stack of books. This room is my life — messy, but with a certain logic.

The Padres beat the Mets in the opener at their new ballpark. I made it home just in time to see Heath Bell record the final two outs against his former team. Have you thanked the Mets lately for their generous gift of one outspoken but effective closer?

I love that Bell called out ESPN for covering three teams and ignoring the other 27. Everyone knew that already, but it’s cool to hear a big-league player acknowledge it. As I’ve said before, San Diego is not ESPN’s market. That’s not a complaint, it’s a fact. We have no use for each other. I would rather invest my time in “Millionaire Matchmaker” or “Cash Cab.” If I’m going to watch crap, it should be entertaining.

Jody Gerut hit the first ever home run at Citi Field. Didn’t care.

* * *

I missed the final two games of the series. Work, taxes, life. Sounds like one was fun, the other not so much.

Love that David Eckstein was yelling balk when Pedro Feliciano, well, balked in the winning run on Monday. Eric Owens. Dave Roberts. Eckstein. It’s a proud tradition of guys who don’t have all the riches in the world but who give what they can.

Chase Headley driving in three after two walks (one intentional) to Adrian Gonzalez on Thursday is solid. Make ‘em pay. Learn ‘em that this is not a one-man lineup.

* * *

Smitty is doing much better than expected. We still don’t have much time with him, but he isn’t going down without a fight. Two things I’ve learned from him: Never give up, and never feel sorry for yourself.

Thanks for the kind words. It means a lot.

* * *

Mission Bay before work. Down Clairemont Drive, past where the thrift shop used to be. Dogs walking. Ducks and seagulls in the shallow. Old people. The steady swoosh of I-5 behind me. Jets taking off from Lindbergh. Sunshine and a silhouette half-moon. Palm trees reflected against rippling water. Two men in a boat with fishing poles. What is there to catch here? Hepatitis?

Friday in Philly. Down 7-1 after four against Cole Hamels? No problem. The offense will keep the Padres in games this year. Anyone with even a rough understanding of park effects already knows this, which is to say that most folks get it wrong.

Headley and Scott Hairston are hitting everything. Luis Rodriguez is playing way over his head, which makes up for the disappearance of Brian Giles’ bat.

Pitchers should stop feeding Nick Hundley fastballs. As Hamels discovered, he can hit those a long way.

Headley nails Greg Dobbs at the plate to end the eighth and preserve an 8-7 lead. Nice defensive work by Headley, mere innings after kerryrobinsoning a fly ball off the bat of Raul Ibanez into a triple.

Jake Peavy needed 44 pitches to make it through the first inning of his last start. Chris Young needed 43. This puts a tremendous strain on a bullpen that isn’t oozing with talent even when fresh. My familiar refrain from seasons past still holds for Peavy and Young: More efficiency, please.

* * *

Balboa Park. Walked along El Prado across the bridge high over 163 to where the museums are. Popped into the San Diego Museum of Art to feed my developing obsession with Monet.

This team is crazy. Down 5-4 headed to the ninth, the Padres score four off Brad Lidge, who hadn’t blown a save since September 2007. Kevin Koumanoff deals the death blow, a three-run homer to left on a 2-0 fastball inner half.

I love Kouz. League-average third baseman, I know. Joe Crede with a shaved head, I know. But I love him.

Gerut leads off the inning with a double to right-center. Eckstein grounds to second, advancing the runner. Brian Giles grounds sharply to first, driving home Gerut to tie the score.

Then Lidge, who threw 32 pitches the night before (Padres loaded the bases with nobody out; didn’t score but made him work), walks Adrian on four pitches. Headley steps to the plate and falls behind, 0-2. He comes back to draw a walk, setting the stage for Kouz.

Lidge has thrown six straight balls. I’m screaming at the TV, “Dude, if it’s a fastball anywhere near the plate, whale on it.” It is, and he does. Mayhem ensues.

Shawn Hill struggled to work five innings. His two-seamer has nice late movement and he sells the changeup well. He isn’t exciting, but he could be late model Brian Lawrence.

Four innings again from the ‘pen. These starters have to work deeper into games. Duaner Sanchez, running on fumes, missed badly with location on a fastball to Chase Utley, who hammered the pitch into the right field seats to lead off the eighth. Changeup was supposed to be down but it arrived at the letters, middle in.

Cla Meredith came in to stop the bleeding. Got Jayson Werth to roll over on a first-pitch sinker, but the ball bounded just to the left of a diving Luis Rodriguez. Sac fly brought home the go-ahead run. Meredith made his pitch and got the grounder… Game of friggin’ inches.

Adrian pounded a two-run homer to center in the third. Off an 0-2 pitch from Brett Myers. No disrespect to Phillies hitters, but if Adrian gets to play in that park 80 times a year, he knocks 40-45 bombs easy. He hit the ball one handed. It probably reaches the warning track at Petco Park and dies there.

I was a little concerned when Bell entered the game. He’d worked each of the previous two nights and thrown a lot of pitches (18 on Thursday in New York, 29 on Friday). He retired the side in order on Saturday for his seventh save in as many opportunities, so it worked out okay. Still, Bell has thrown 67 pitches over the span of three consecutive days and I wonder if that will come back to haunt him at some point.

* * *

We take the dogs to Hospitality Point for a whiff of salt air. Breeze coming off the jetty. Boats. A few wispy clouds.

We come home in time to watch the crappy parts of Sunday’s game. Padres had a 4-0 lead through five, and Josh Geer pitched as well as he ever will, but the bullpen finally faltered.

Edward Mujica serves up a pinch-hit homer to Jimmy Rollins in the eighth. Cuts the lead to 4-3. With Bell unavailable, Edwin Moreno gets the call in the ninth. Due up for the Phillies: Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, Matt Stairs. “There is no way we win this game,” I tell Mrs. Ducksnorts and hope I am wrong.

Reminds me of the World Baseball Classic in ’06, when that high-school kid from South Africa tried to save the game against Canada. A 17-year-old against guys like Jason Bay, Justin Morneau, and Stairs? Makes for a brilliant story if it happens, but the odds are beyond brutal.

Sure enough, Howard bloops a single to center. Ibanez crushes a homer to right. Game over.

I feel for Moreno. He isn’t a big-league pitcher. No amount of wishful thinking will transmogrify him into one. From the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual:

Moreno maintained his hit and strikeout numbers on advancing to Triple-A but saw his home run and walk rates explode. That’s not a good combination, especially for a guy that is older than most of his competition.

Moreno gave up 1.45 homers per 9 innings last year at Portland. He never had to face a lineup like the Phillies in the PCL.

It’s hard to be upset with Sunday’s loss. The Padres are 9-4 and have fought well against some of the league’s top teams over the first two weeks. Plus, a game at Citizens Bank Park featuring Geer, Mujica, and Moreno shouldn’t be as close as it was.

* * *

This team doesn’t quit. These guys never give up on themselves. They don’t know that they cannot do this. They have no appreciation of how much they are supposed to suck. They just go out and play, unburdened by expectation. This may not last, but right now it’s a beautiful thing.

The Ride Is All We Have

by Geoff Young on Apr 13, 2009 (30) Comments

Opening Day. An affirmation of spring, life, and all that is good in the world. Moments of perfection will carry us through difficult times. There is no other way.

Baseball is my pulse, my clock, my book of days. Seasons all run together. I was in high school discovering Roto, now I’m a month shy of 40. I don’t even remember blinking.

Jake-Peavy-4
If you listen closely, you can hear Rick Sutcliffe asking Jake what he’s still doing here.

Tony Gwynn, Dave Winfield, Randy Jones, and Ollie Brown threw out the ceremonial first pitches. Too many Dodgers fans here. Drunk woman and her boyfriend looking for a fight, find one. Escorted from the premises. Beer still in hand, she starts swearing at me like a sailor. I forget the first rule of engaging drunken jackasses, which is don’t do it.

I feel badly for her. Sucks to bring that much misery on yourself.

There was a game, too. We got our asses kicked, 4-1. Jake Peavy wasn’t at his best. Too much James Loney and Matt Kemp on the other side. The ball Kemp hit to center in the seventh… I thought the Pad Squad was shooting T-shirts into the stands.

Ned Colletti should trade Kemp for some crusty veteran with a glove. Get rid of Loney, too.

Padres had a chance in the sixth. Hiroki Kuroda gave up two-out singles to David Eckstein (10-pitch at-bat, thanks much) and Brian Giles. Then Adrian Gonzalez deposited Kuroda’s 2-0 pitch into the cheap seats down the right field line.

Foul ball, strike one.

Kemp robbed Jody Gerut of extra bases earlier in the inning. Kuroda could have been beaten this night, but he wasn’t.

* * *

Smitty
Smitty

After the game, Smitty had three seizures. Those of you who own a copy of the 2009 Annual will recognize Smitty as the dog sitting on top of our other dog’s head on the Dedication page. He’ll be 16 next month.

We drove to the ER. We sat in the car and cried. Smitty fell asleep on Mrs. Ducksnorts’ lap. Some Coldplay song on the radio. That shouldn’t be the last thing anyone hears, even if they can’t really hear.

We brought him back home instead. Mrs. D. watched over Smitty all night. Nobody slept.

* * *

A day after Tim Sullivan invoked the ’62 Mets (no love for the Cleveland Spiders?), Chris Young beat the Dodgers. So much for a perfect season.

Young dropped some sharp breaking balls. He also had Manny Ramirez swinging late at 88-90 mph fastballs, which you don’t see every day.

Edwin Moreno made his big-league debut in the seventh. Walked two batters before falling behind 3-1 to Manny and then retiring him on a popup to second to end the frame. Memo to Moreno: Don’t do that.

Nice at-bats from Nick Hundley. Drew two walks after falling behind in the count. Duaner Sanchez worked a perfect eighth. Cool goggles. We needed a setup man with goggles.

Mark Grant and Mark Neely called a good game. It’s different without Matty V., but Neely knows what he’s doing and plays well with Mud.

I’m liking Heath Bell as closer. He struck out the side, pumping 93-96 mph fastballs past Kemp, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Rafael Furcal. No disrespect to Trevor Hoffman — who was, is, and ever shall be Da Man — but it was awesome to see a guy just throw balls past hitters in the ninth.

* * *

Pads lost, 5-2. Crap pitching. Eight walks doesn’t get it done.

Former dishwasher Walter Silva looked okay. Average velocity, but his pitches have good downward movement. My favorite thing about him is that he isn’t Carlos Silva.

Edward Mujica gave up some cheap hits. Loney chopped one high off the plate. Orlando Hudson sliced a wedge shot off the glove of Kevin Kouzmanoff, who was in guarding against the bunt.

Manny’s double was legit. Crushed a ball in on his hands to deep right center. Dude is strong. He’s earned the right to wear pajamas on the field. Heck, give him a pipe, a harem, and a mansion already.

Leading off the ninth, Adrian tried to beat the infield shift (Casey Blake in the shortstop position, Furcal on the second base side of the bag) by dropping down a bunt. Hit it right back to Jonathan Broxton for the first out. Adrian tried the same thing a couple times the night before but fouled the pitches off. I don’t need to see that again from our best hitter.

Stupid baserunning. Scott Hairston turns too far around third on Tuesday, Gerut turns too far around first on Wednesday. Both kill innings. This team is not good enough to overcome stupidity.

* * *

Smitty went blind after the 2003 fires. Bumped into stuff for a day or two, then figured it out. He is relentless, unstoppable, happy beyond all reason. Makes me forget about wins and losses.

The moon is full and Smitty has a brain tumor. Doctor gives him three to six months. We will take what we get.

* * *

How sick do Dodgers fans feel after Thursday’s gift to the home team? Up 3-1 in the eighth, the LA bullpen coughs up three runs to the vaunted Padres offense. Then in the ninth, Hudson leads off with a triple. Ramirez, Andre Ethier, and Russell Martin can’t drive him home.

Hey, at least they left San Diego with a series split. And that sick feeling.

Four games into the season, the Padres are one game back of where they were in ’69. Clearly they will lose 111 games. Seriously, though, twenty-three walks allowed is too many.

* * *

Above .500? That isn’t in the script. Three in the first off Barry Zito. Strong work from Shawn Hill before he faltered in the sixth. Left with a 4-2 lead, bases loaded, nobody out.

Enter rookie Luke Gregerson. Double play, three-pitch (all sliders down and away) swinging strikeout of Aaron Rowand, please pay at the cash register… I want to buy Gregerson a lollipop and some Tonka trucks. Dude looks 12 years old.

Then comes the rain. Who ordered a 51-minute delay? Isn’t there a city ordinance against that sort of thing?

The eighth inning belongs to Scott Hairston. Top half he makes a running, leaping catch of a Bengie Molina drive that was at least a double, possibly a game-tying two run homer. Molina can’t believe it, and neither can I. Bottom half, Hairston blasts a three-run shot to dead center on a hanging Merkin Valdez breaking ball. Shades of September 2007.

More baserunning blunders. Luis Rodriguez thrown out trying to go first to third on a sac bunt. Out by a furlong. If the Padres insist on playing small ball (Eckstein laid down a bunt in the first inning of the opener; deja vu all over again), they should at least not suck at it.

Off-field, the Padres claimed another pitcher off waivers. Luis Perdomo is a Rule V guy so he has to stick with the big club all year — a la Jose Antonio Nunez in 2001. Drew Macias was shipped to Portland to make room for Perdomo.

On the bright side, the Pads are back at a 13-man staff. Good things happen to those who short themselves position players.

* * *

Perky young woman asks if we want a seat upgrade. Time share presentation? Sell my soul? I decline.

She assures me no money or other commitment is required, so I relent. We are now in Section 107. Ah, how the other half lives.

It’s Mexico Opening Day. Ex-Padres Vicente Romo and Sid Monge throw out the ceremonial first pitch. Romo I remember as brother of Enrique, setup man for Kent Tekulve on the 1979 “We Are Family” Pirates. Monge I remember as the man who served up Tony Gwynn’s first big-league hit.

Jake Peavy had trouble locating his secondary pitches early but soon got into a groove and worked with a refreshing efficiency that carried him into the ninth. His catcher, Henry Blanco, launched two homers to left. Move the fences back; this ballpark is a joke.

Both blasts came off changeups, prompting the Giants to update their scouting report. It now reads, “Don’t throw Blanco a changeup.”

Giants starter, lefty Jonathan Sanchez, was pumping 92-95 mph fastballs and hitting his spots. At one point, he’d thrown 20 of 25 pitches for strikes. Then he remembered that he has control problems and went 33 balls and 34 strikes the rest of the way.

Chase Headley hit a bomb to dead center in the sixth. Seriously, move the fences back already. It’s embarrassing.

Adrian Gonzalez, who received his Gold Glove Award before the game, dealt the death blow in the fifth. After striking out and grounding into a double play in his first two at-bats against Sanchez, he rapped a bases-clearing double to right-center that sent the Giants starter to the showers.

Giles made a diving, tumbling catch of an Aaron Rowand drive to lead off the eighth. Ended up in the back of the visitors bullpen. Dirt everywhere. Dude does nothing half-assed. He is full donkey all the way.

Back at home, Smitty is walking in circles. TiVo has taken the initiative and recorded Alfred Hitchock’s The 39 Steps, thinking I might like to see it. I might, and I do, and it is good.

* * *

Ladies and gentlemen, your first place Padres. Have to say that while I can.

What a rude treatment of Tim Lincecum. Cy Young Award winners aren’t supposed to get cuffed around by teams that can’t hit.

I love watching Kouzmanoff hit. So quick to the ball.

Another early sac bunt from Eckstein. Third inning this time. Assuming the guys ahead of him get on base, he’s going to lead the league in that category.

* * *

While all that was happening, we trekked up to Elsinore with a friend for the Storm game. Small Easter crowd, like the time Wally Backman launched F-bombs at Lancaster.

Front row, behind the plate. Ten bucks each.

Storm took on the Visalia Rawhide. I would make fun of their team name, but they completed a four-game sweep of the home team on Sunday, so levity hardly seems appropriate.

Seriously, though. The Rawhide?

Logan Forsythe didn’t play. Neither did Jeremy McBryde, the scheduled starter. Chris Wilkes, all of 19 years old, got the call instead. Got smacked around a little, which is what you’d expect from a kid that age making his full-season debut. Kept the Storm in the game, though.

Yefri Carvajal served up an outside pitch into right for a base hit early in the game. Struck out swinging at a pitch way down and way away late. Let a ground ball roll through his legs in left somewhere in the middle. He was consistent in his inconsistency.

Felix Carrasco is a big-bodied switch hitter who hasn’t had much success from the right side. Hit .149/.264/.277 against southpaws in ’08 at Fort Wayne. On Sunday, he rolled into double plays his first two times up, both against a lefty. Then he singled and walked against right-handers.

J.T. Snow eventually abandoned switch hitting because he sucked from the right side. Just sayin’.

After the game we dropped our friend off at his place in Encinitas and cruised back along the coast. Past Swami’s, the train station, people coming back from surfing, going out to dinner, walking their dogs, whatever.

Sunlight glimmered off the ocean water as waves rolled in and swept the beaches. The smell of sea and grilled meats. Clean. Perfect. Whole.

We come home to old dogs. My knee hurts like hell and taxes aren’t finished. Smitty is dying, the ocean never yields.

If I could surf, I would know how to keep my balance when things get rough. I could stand again when I fall and prepare for the next wave.

Enjoy the ride. It is all any of us has.

Third Door on the Left/Patchwork Pitching Staff Blues

by Geoff Young on Apr 06, 2009 (33) Comments

You are in the wrong place. You want hope — third door on the left, just past apathy and before foolishness.

SDSU right-hander Stephen Strasburg
Take a good look at what you cannot have.

It is written that the Padres will be terrible this year, and what is written must be true. Cancel the games, record them as losses, save us the trouble of going through the motions.

Nobody gets hurt. Nobody suffers through six months of torture in the form of baseball.

I keep staring at the names on this year’s pitching staff. It’s like I’m at a crime scene: Who are these people, and what are they doing here?

You will have time to do other things in life. Take comfort in knowing that your team’s fate is assured. It has been decreed that the Padres will lose 90 games or more, and so it shall be. Predictions are prophecies. Experts speak the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.

I look at Jake Peavy and Chris Young. No problem. Heath Bell and Cla Meredith? Not great, but not bad.

Besides, loss is cleansing. The absence of winning reminds us how magnificent its presence is. Good lesson, that.

Now we just need to work out the details (we also need a giant foam hand with 30 fingers on it, but that’s another story). Is it 88 losses? Or 94? Or maybe 102?

After those four, I’m not seeing big leaguers. How hard will this staff push the theory that Petco Park is a safe harbor for downtrodden arms?

While I’m thinking of it, a belated congrats to the USSR for winning the gold in hockey at Lake Placid in 1980. And we’re all thankful for the legacy left behind by the Dewey administration.

They come from Cleveland, Portland, San Antonio, Albuquerque, Monterrey, New York, San Francisco, and D.C. They have names like Mujica, Duaner, and Eulogio (which sounds like “eulogy” but which derives from the Greek for “reasoning well”).

Cancel the games. Calculate the amount of money you would have spent watching them and give that to the owners, who will distribute it among players.

No, they won’t actually play. Why risk unexpected outcomes, not to mention injuries? These people are paid a lot of money — best not to let them set foot on the field and hurt themselves.

They are the outcast, the unwanted, the hungry searching for a chance to prove something to someone, looking to cast doubt on the doubters, be greater than they are, leave a glowing impression, be the improbable, the unexpected, the surprise of no hope.

Still, we dream about the new ownership group. Eleven have been revealed, and of course, the twelfth is Ellen Tigh.

Jeff Moorad, who once represented Matt Bush, leads the charge. Moorad has proclaimed that his “goal is to build a consistently winning organization that has a chance to compete for a World Series year in and year out,” which sounds suspiciously like the “consistently competitive” mantra that endeared the old regime to fans.

Interlude

Speaking of Bush, he was released by Toronto toward the end of spring training “for failing to comply with the guidelines the Blue Jays set out when they agreed to invite him to camp.” Quick geography quiz: Which of the following is furthest east?

  1. El Cajon
  2. Toronto
  3. Unemployment
  4. Jail
  5. Mmm, beer
  6. None of the above, you dolt; the Earth is a sphere, directionality an artificial construct

Now, back to our story…

Then again, some folks think Sandy Alderson is a Cylon. It could be an elaborate scheme, a ruse, subterfuge, bamboozlement, shiftiness, skullduggery, pettifoggery, connivery, mountebankery, thimblerigging… This is one fine thesaurus; I could go all day.

Walter Silva? Luke Gregerson? Edwin Moreno? The next inning they pitch in the big leagues will be their first. Silva is 32 years old. Gregerson is 25; Moreno, 28.

The point is, the Cylons may already have won. Someone should have advised the new guard that San Diegans don’t fall for straight talk. Don’t tell us about a “consistently winning organization.” Your hope is not our hope.

If you want to stress test the ballpark, running these guys out there is a great strategy. If you want to win games, not so much.

Spin an elaborate yarn that will capture our imagination. Distract us with shiny objects. I won’t do all the work for you, but here are some things you could promise:

  • The sun and the moon and the stars — Cliche, but classic. We could win a lot of games with celestial bodies on our side.
  • Free beer for everyone — True, it will give us less reason to complain, but think of the children.
  • A World Series winner every year — Victory is assured, just like in that Twilight Zone episode where Sebastian Cabot plays Satan (I always thought there was something fiendish about Mr. French).
  • Big name signings — “We offered Manny Ramirez $80 million, the Republic of Malta, and a recurring role on Two and a Half Men to play for us on Thursdays. He chose to sign elsewhere. Who knew he wasn’t a Charlie Sheen fan?”
  • More offense — Move the fences directly behind the infield. Save money on outfielders, expand seating, profit!

What the hell am I talking about anyway? You were looking for hope and all I’ve given you is nonsense. In my defense, hope and nonsense are not entirely incompatible. Ask any political or religious leader.

If this is a legitimate big-league staff, then Kevin Towers is better than I thought he was. He’s seeing things that aren’t visible to the unaided eye — like Neptune in the night sky.

Bottom line: The Padres will stink in 2009. So it has been decreed, and so it shall be. My completely unbiased advice, without any ulterior motives whatsoever, is to avoid attending games as much as possible.

Because, you know, I could put my stuff in your empty seat.

Geoff’s Publishing Schedule for 2009

by Geoff Young on Mar 30, 2009 (8) Comments

Thing is, writing the 2009 Annual took a lot out of me. So does writing software documentation 40 hours a week.

Life is good; I’ve got no complaints or regrets. That said, you deserve to know why I’m scaling back production this year. Here’s the plan for 2009:

Also, you may notice a shift here at Ducksnorts. Good research takes time and energy, both of which are in short supply, while bad research isn’t worth the electrons via which it is transmitted. Expect less number crunching and more… weirdness.

If you need your daily Padres fix — and trust me, you do — head over to Friar Forecast, Gaslamp Ball, and Who’s Your Padre. Others may come along as well, and I’ll continue to track those at PadreBlogs.

As always, thanks much for your support. Let’s enjoy another great season together.

RIP, John Brattain

by Geoff Young on Mar 26, 2009 (2) Comments

I am saddened devastated to report that my colleague and friend, John Brattain, has died. John was a fine baseball writer and a fine human being. He will be missed more than I can articulate.

I will offer additional thoughts at Hardball Times a bit later. Meanwhile, if you want to know about John, start here:

Also, for those interested in attending services, here is information from John’s family:

A memorial service as a celebration of John’s life will be held at the Kingdom Hall of Jehovah’s Witnesses, 4183 Old Highway 2, Belleville, Ontario on Saturday April 4 at 2:00 pm.

Finally, Dave at THT has set up a John Brattain Memorial Fund. There is a link is in the upper left-hand corner of the THT home page for those who wish to donate.

My sincerest condolences to John’s family and friends. Thanks, John, for everything.

Best Regards,
Geoff

IVIE 2009 Projections

by Geoff Young on Mar 23, 2009 (16) Comments

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the comatosely accurate IVIE projections for 2009 (explanation). For the hitters, I’ve included the name of a player whose career line is similar to our projection. As always, thanks to all who participated. Enjoy…

Padres IVIE Projections for 2009: Hitters
Player No. PA BA OBP SLG Comp
Matt Antonelli 14 224 .237 .322 .343 Desi Relaford
Henry Blanco 23 197 .234 .282 .344 Buck Martinez
Chris Burke 14 184 .234 .310 .341 Rob Wilfong
Everth Cabrera 12 130 .201 .282 .287 Johnnie LeMaster
David Eckstein 15 450 .274 .343 .350 Tom Herr
Cliff Floyd 16 208 .254 .342 .420 Michael Tucker
Jody Gerut 16 488 .287 .354 .455 Mike Easler
Brian Giles 16 554 .285 .378 .423 Lenny Dykstra
Adrian Gonzalez 15 661 .285 .368 .515 Rafael Palmeiro
Edgar Gonzalez 14 254 .268 .324 .382 Dan Gladden
Scott Hairston 16 355 .248 .313 .463 Joe Carter
Chase Headley 16 550 .270 .345 .448 Ken Caminiti
Nick Hundley 23 401 .240 .300 .389 Joe Oliver
Kevin Kouzmanoff 15 594 .278 .327 .471 Vinny Castilla
Luis Rodriguez 15 375 .260 .314 .336 Bill Russell
Will Venable 13 210 .257 .319 .369 Joe Orsulak

So, we’re looking at a starting lineup of Oliver, Palmeiro, Herr, Castilla, Russell, Caminiti, Easler, and Dykstra (without the wheels). I don’t know about you, but I can live with that. Here’s where I’m having some trouble…

Padres IVIE Projections for 2009: Pitchers
Player No. IP ERA
Cha Seung Baek 9 174 4.53
Kevin Correia 9 113 4.75
Josh Geer 9 84 5.01
Wade LeBlanc 8 61 5.52
Jake Peavy 9 198 3.11
Chris Young 9 164 3.69

I have a feeling that Geer and LeBlanc are going to exceed our projected innings. I just don’t see a lot of other options… Only two of us offered projections for relievers, so I didn’t bother compiling those… It will be “exciting” to see this staff pitch at Coors Field…

IVIE 2009: Relief Pitchers

by Geoff Young on Mar 19, 2009 (10) Comments

You may have heard me on the radio during your Monday morning commute… if you happen to live in Montreal. Big thanks to Elliott, Shaun, and Denis at The Team 990 for having me on to talk Padres baseball.

IVIE community projections

I’ve also got a guest post up at Baseball Analysts. Thanks to Rich Lederer for that. I know most of you are familiar with Rich’s site, but for those who aren’t, basically it rocks; add it to your list of required reading.

Finally, Jonah‘s Expos appear to be pulling away from my Padres in the Seamheads Historical League. We hung in there for a long time, but right now it’s not looking real good. The pitching just hasn’t been there…

Speaking of which, it’s time to project the relievers. Oh man, I can hardly contain my excitement.

Padres IVIE Projections (Draft) for 2009: Relief Pitchers
  IP ERA
Mike Adams 30 3.75
Heath Bell 75 3.48
Chris Britton 30 4.46
Mike Ekstrom 25 5.31
Justin Hampson 40 3.15
Cla Meredith 75 3.65
Ivan Nova 40 5.67
Scott Patterson 50 3.97
Duaner Sanchez 50 4.12
Joe Thatcher 25 3.86
Mark Worrell 60 3.65

Adams isn’t due back until at least the end of May, and I’m assuming there will be some rust when he returns.

I have no idea what to expect from Bell. He dominated in ’07, but fell apart the second half of last season and is moving into an unfamiliar role.

Britton starts the year in the minors, but with this group he’s almost assured of some innings. Ditto Ekstrom.

Hampson is a quietly effective 11th or 12th man on a staff. There’s no reason to think that won’t continue.

We studied Meredith at length in the 2009 Annual. The gist of it is this: Keep him out of high-leverage situations and he’ll provide value by soaking up innings.

Nova hasn’t pitched above A-ball and has been used almost exclusively as a starter in three minor-league seasons. If he sticks with the Padres, I imagine they will try to hide him as much as possible. Remember how Kevin Cameron used to disappear for days and even weeks at a time in ’07? At least Cameron was a reliever who had pitched in the high minors.

I was overly dismissive of Patterson in the 2009 Annual. Yeah, he’s old but he has a stellar minor-league track record. He’s kinda growing on me.

Sanchez used to be good, then got hurt and saw his velocity decline. As MB at Friar Forecast notes, he’s “not an easy guy to evaluate (with just numbers anyway).”

Thatcher? I still think he can pitch. I hope I’m right, because the Padres need some guys like that.

It’s funny that I’ve got Worrell with the same ERA as Meredith. That wasn’t planned. Worrell will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entire season.

Now it’s your turn. The polls will remain open until 6 p.m. PT, Sunday, March 22. I’ll publish the final tallies on Monday.