Friday Links (5 Feb 10)

by Geoff Young on Feb 05, 2010 (3) Comments

You’ll have to supply your own snappy intro today…

  • The Case for Mark Loretta’s Hall of Fame Enshrinement (Gaslamp Ball). This is hilarious, although I’m not sure that’s its intent.
  • Willie Mays, at 78, Decides to Tell His Story (New York Times). One of the game’s legends has a biography coming out soon. [h/t Didi]
  • Different parallels for Mauer, Gonzalez (U-T). Tim Sullivan compares the Padres’ Adrian Gonzalez to Minnesota’s Joe Mauer. With all due respect to Gonzalez, who is one of my favorite players and a darned good one, there is no comparison. Sullivan needs to aim a little lower: Justin Morneau makes more sense. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • The running man (NC Times). According to John Maffei, former Padres outfielder Dave Roberts will be helping out this spring. Quoth Roberts: “I’ll be in spring training, working with all the players — especially the pitchers — on bunting. And I’ll work closely with Tony Gwynn Jr., Will Venable and Everth Cabrera on bunting and base stealing.” [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • Power to all fields (Hardball Times). Jeff Sackmann shows us, among many other fascinating things, that Padres prospect Jaff Decker likes to pull the ball.
  • Not a Rookie: Mat Latos (Minor League Ball). John Sickels talks about the young right-hander: “…if Latos does stay healthy, I think he has the natural ability to be a number one or number two starter. If he’d come in under the 50-inning limit, I’d rate him as a Grade A- prospect and would have put him at number four on my Top 50 pitcher’s list.” Sounds about right to me, although I would add the caveat that it might not happen right away. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • The Value of Everth Cabrera (Baseball Daily Digest Friarhood). Jeff Creps likes the Padres young shortstop.
  • Best and worst starting pitching gambles of the offseason (Sports Illustrated). Sky Andrecheck likes the Jon Garland, noting among other things that “even if the Padres aren’t going to the World Series, respectability matters to the fans and at the box office and these types of smart signings that can slowly improve the club are a path to a better future.” You’ll get no argument from me. I’m on record here and at Hostove.com as liking the move. [h/t Friar Forecast]
  • Minors vet Hayhurst to undergo surgery (MLB.com). Reader LynchMob informs us that friend of Ducksnorts Dirk Hayhurst is slated for shoulder surgery today. Hayhurst’s timetable for recovery is uncertain, but we’re wishing him the best.

Got links? Leave ‘em in the comments, email me (geoff@ducksnorts.com), or hit me up on Facebook or Twitter.

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One Tall Wheelbarrow

by Geoff Young on Feb 04, 2010 (2) Comments

Speaking of poetry, longtime reader and frequent commenter Tom Waits went William Carlos Williams on us the other day. I really wish I’d written this myself:

so much depends
upon

a 6’10″
pitcher

glazed with Icy
Hot

atop the pitching
mound.

Nicely done, Tom. As poems go, I’ve seen verse…

Me, Elsewhere: Thanks for All the Runs

by Geoff Young on Feb 03, 2010 (2) Comments

My latest at Hardball Times examines pitchers that succeeded despite not pitching very well. Our pal Ismael Valdez, who once inspired some wretched poetry, appears on this list.

For grins, here are the five lowest ERA+ of Padres pitchers who qualified for the ERA title and finished with a winning record:

  1. Kevin Jarvis, 2001: 12-11, 4.79 ERA, 84 ERA+
  2. Eric Show, 1983: 15-12, 4.17, 85
  3. Andy Hawkins, 1986: 10-8, 4.30, 85
  4. Ed Whitson, 1988: 13-11, 3.77, 91
  5. Joey Hamilton, 1997: 12-7, 4.25, 92

Hamilton’s performance is especially impressive given that the Padres had a 76-86 record that year. They scored 5.14 runs per game for Hamilton and gave him at least two runs to work with in 30 of his 31 starts.

What an awful pitching staff. Trevor Hoffman (147) and Jim Bruske (108) were the only pitchers out of the 21 who appeared for the Padres in ’97 to finish with an ERA+ better than 100. The team ERA+ was 78, which is like a whole lot of Steve Arlin or, for the younger folks, Sergio Mitre.

Positive Negative Man

by Geoff Young on Feb 02, 2010 (11) Comments

In my experience, things usually are neither as bad nor as good as they seem to be. When the Padres lost 99 games in 2008, many people abandoned hope. I wasn’t one of them and predicted 75 wins in 2009, which is precisely what we got. (In the interest of full disclosure, I’d predicted 87 wins in ’08, which was… a little less precise.)

I’m on record as doubting that the Padres will reach the playoffs this year. The talent isn’t there yet, and I try not to make a habit of lying about such things. If you cannot look at a situation honestly, what is the point?

Still, with a few notable exceptions, e.g., the apparent movement away from Latin America, I like where this organization is headed. Although it may take a while to get there (the whole ownership transition thing didn’t help), the Padres are moving in the right direction. I’m prepared for another 70-75 win season (which shouldn’t be bad enough to cost anyone their job [h/t Jacob in the comments] given the pieces that are in place), but I’m also prepared to enjoy watching the kids do their thing and, with luck, develop the skills necessary to be a part of the next contending team in San Diego.

I can’t remember if I’ve said this out loud or only in my head (harder to tell the difference as I get older), but this team reminds me a bit of those Cleveland Indians squads from the early-’90s: first-time manager, talented young players that haven’t quite made their mark. The comparison works best if you don’t think about it too hard.

Back in the here and now, when I look at the quality of teams in the NL West, I don’t see the Padres battling for much more than fourth place. At the same time, I see seven of eight projected regulars either currently in or still approaching their primes. Not all of them will fulfill their potential, but some will, and that’s a start. (Don’t tell anyone, but now that he’s back at his natural position, I have a non-quantifiably positive feeling about Chase Headley; my tentative projection for him this year is .279/.356/.451, but we’ll discuss that in more detail later, when we compile the IVIEs.)

The pitching staff is young as well (Heath Bell is 32, Mike Adams is 31, Chris Young and new addition Jon Garland are 30; everyone else on the 40-man is in their twenties), and we’ve noted that Bud Black seems to be a good fit for such a staff. Again, being young and talented is not the same as being productive and valuable, but some of these guys could end up making a difference in the future, when it matters. In 2010, I’m hoping we’ll learn which ones.

This is going to be fun. Not the losing so much, but the theater of watching young men struggle to achieve mastery of their chosen profession and to become something greater than they are.

Hope is good. Keep it stashed in your back pocket, don’t let it sweep you away. If you’re not careful, you might end up enjoying yourself.

Bud Black and Pitchouts

by Geoff Young on Feb 01, 2010 (10) Comments

We’ve noted that Bud Black has done a good job of protecting his pitchers in three years as manager of the Padres. At the end of that little ditty, I alluded to another aspect of Black’s managerial style that caught my eye. I speak of his affinity for the pitchout.

Black led National League managers with 55 pitchouts in 2009 (he paced the NL in 2007 as well). That’s more than the next two NL skippers combined (Dusty Baker and Lou Piniella each called 23). Only one big-league manager came close to Black: his former mentor Mike Scioscia called 40 pitchouts. Who knows whether there’s a relationship between Scioscia’s use of the pitchout and Black’s, but I find this intriguing.

I’m not sure what the Official Sabermetric Stance (TM) on pitchouts is, but for the most part I don’t like to see a pitcher intentionally deliver a ball outside the strike zone and put himself into a worse count unless he has impeccable control. There are other ways to control the running game, e.g., throwing over to first, varying delivery, that tend not to put the pitcher at such a disadvantage (although those bring their own baggage, e.g., possibility of errant pickoff throws, diminished effectiveness with slide step, but we’ll worry about one factor at a time). Beyond that, there is wisdom in Greg Maddux’s assertion that “it makes sense to go after the hitter and not worry about the runners” (more sense than some of his specific reasons for making that assertion, anyway).

Speaking of Maddux, who was known for his control (uh, slightly), it’s worth noting that his former manager, Bobby Cox, used to call a lot of pitchouts. From 1999 to 2001, Cox called 203 pitchouts (54 in ’99, 59 in ’00, and 90 in ’01), leading the NL in each of those seasons. In more recent years, he has adopted a more conservative approach (72 pitchouts over the past three seasons combined). One wonders whether this tactical shift has anything to do with his personnel and, if so, to what degree.

That might make for an interesting study. Testable hypothesis: The pitchout is more effective and less risky when executed by pitchers who possess excellent control. Someone other than me should investigate this.

Friday Links (29 Jan 10)

by Geoff Young on Jan 29, 2010 (4) Comments

Don’t waste your links or links will waste you…

  • The nickname game: all nicknames all the time (Hardball Times). I don’t recall ever hearing Mike Cameron referred to as “The Black Cat” in his two years with the Padres. I still have a soft spot for two other ex-Padres, Milton “Jenga” Bradley and Kevin “Mashin’ Macedonian” Kouzmanoff.
  • Headley at hot corner a heated decision (U-T). Tim Sullivan talks about the Padres’ decision to return Chase Headley to his natural position. Quoth former Padres GM Kevin Towers: “I’d keep Kouz and trade Headley. But DePo (Paul DePodesta) has always been a huge Headley fan.” First off, why is anyone soliciting Kevin Towers’ opinion at this point? Second, Sullivan goes on to mention that “…the Padres prefer to think Headley’s third-base sample is too small to extrapolate.” A less biased and more accurate version would remove the first five words from that passage (Headley has played 40 big-league games at third base). Then again, maybe less bias and more accuracy isn’t everyone’s bag.
  • Prospects abound in Padres pipeline (U-T). Bill Center gives his top 15 Padres prospects. I’m not sure about Simon Castro in the top spot (I’d probably go with Jaff Decker or Donavan Tate), and he’s got Cory Luebke way too high (#5), but this isn’t a bad list. I’ve made no secret of being a huge fan of Edinson Rincon, who shows up at #12. Oh, and Jonathan Galvez should be on here, too — probably around where Rymer Liriano is (#10).
  • RJ’s Fro Exclusive Interview with Aaron Cunningham (RJ’s Fro). The story about selling a car to Ice-T is classic. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • Mark Loretta announces retirement after 15-year playing career (Padres.com). The best second baseman currently in the organization “will join the Padres front office as Special Assistant to Baseball Operations.” [h/t Gaslamp Ball]
  • Wonder Hamster, professional hitter (Sacrifice Bunt). I love Matt Stairs. He should prove a worthy successor to Tony Clark and Cliff Floyd in the “What the heck is he doing here?” department.
  • Introducing the 5 Tool Analyzer (Hardball Times). Kevin Dame’s latest graphical tool “maps a player’s skill (relative to his peers) across 5 offensive and defensive measures.” Pretty slick.
  • 2010 Top 50 Prospects (MLB.com) The Padres’ Jaff Decker checks in at #50. [h/t Gaslamp Ball]

Got links? Leave ‘em in the comments, email me (geoff@ducksnorts.com), or hit me up on Facebook or Twitter.

Need links? Check out Ducksnorts @ Delicious, updated daily.

Me Elsewhere: Tough-Luck Pitchers

by Geoff Young on Jan 27, 2010 (6) Comments

As threatened, postings will occur more frequently this year. If you’re looking for the Jon Garland thread, it’s over here.

Meanwhile, my latest is up at Hardball Times. It’s all about pitchers who ended up with losing records despite pitching very well. Dave Roberts’ epic 1971 campaign with the Padres tops the list.

Five times a Padres hurler has qualified for the ERA title and posted an ERA+ of 150 or better; Roberts is the only one to do so with a winning percentage below .625:

  1. Jake Peavy, 2004: 15-6, 2.27 ERA, 171 ERA+
  2. Kevin Brown, 1998: 18-7, 2.38, 164
  3. Jake Peavy, 2007: 19-6, 2.54, 157
  4. Dave Roberts, 1971: 14-17, 2.10, 157
  5. Randy Jones, 1975: 20-12, 2.24, 156

Enjoy…

Padres Add Garland to Rotation

by Geoff Young on Jan 26, 2010 (7) Comments

The Padres have signed veteran right-hander Jon Garland to round out the 2010 rotation. The deal is $4.7 million this year, plus a mutual option for $6.75 million in 2011.

Excluding 2005, when he masqueraded as a front-line pitcher, Garland has been a league-average innings eater throughout his career. He’s filled that role for a long time and he’s still in his prime.

Garland’s main assets are durability and reliability. Every year since 2002, he has made at least 32 starts, worked at least 190 innings, and won at least 10 games. His career ERA+ is 104.

There is nothing sexy about Garland’s game. He gives up plenty of hits and doesn’t notch many strikeouts (career high in a season is 115; career K/9 is 4.72). He just takes the mound when it’s his turn and gives an honest day’s work in the big leagues. I don’t have a problem letting the youngsters watch a guy do that.

Garland at age 30 is like Greg Maddux at age 41. That’s not a bad thing, especially considering Garland is scheduled to make much less than Maddux did in his final seasons ($10 million each in ’07 and ’08).

For those who might be concerned that Garland will keep some of the young arms from getting a legitimate opportunity this year, remember that Chris Young hasn’t made more than 18 starts in a season since 2007. Also, Kevin Correia saw his innings jump to 198 from a previous career high of 110 established a year earlier. This may or may not portend anything, but it’s worth noting that Correia, unlike Garland, is not accustomed to carrying such a heavy load.

I feel bad for Wade LeBlanc, who pitched well in his second stint with the big club in 2009 and who probably deserved the chance to compete for a job this spring. Then again, opportunities will arise, whether the Padres want them to or not. Remember last year’s rotation at the season’s start? Remember how many were still around at the end?

Stuff happens, the kids will get their chances. Garland’s presence just increases the likelihood that they won’t all get thrown into the fire at once, which seems prudent to me.

Garland also should have trade value should the need arise. That could prove useful at some point.

Once Upon My Mind: Jeff Weaver, Johan Santana, Corey Patterson, Milton Bradley, Jayson Werth

by Geoff Young on Jan 26, 2010 (2) Comments

Myron at Friar Forecast is looking back at old Padres drafts, and in his first installment, he covers 2000 (Mark Phillips, Xavier Nady, Mewelde Moore…). I thought it might be fun to see what I’d said about those players back in the day; unfortunately, much of that stuff didn’t make it over from the old server.

On the bright side, the Internet Archive stores everything so I’m now in the process of dumping those old articles into the WordPress thingy. Oh, and I did find a few random bits worth noting; I had Moore in the “Honorable Mention” category headed into 2003, along with Jason Bay, who somehow got stuck behind these guys.

I still have work to do, but over the weekend, I managed to make it through almost everything I ever wrote for Top Prospect Alert. It’s amusing (and humbling, in light of what actually happened) to see what I said a decade ago. Here’s a small sample:

On Ben Broussard and Kory DeHaan:

Broussard, the Cincinnati Reds’ 2nd round pick in the June 1999 draft, has a quick bat and showed nice power to the gaps. The left-handed hitter out of McNeese State reminds me a bit of Oakland’s Jason Giambi.

DeHaan, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ 7th round pick in the June 1997 draft, reminds me of a Steve Finley/Andy VanSlyke type player, with perhaps less power.

No, and way no.

On Mario Ramos and Jeff Weaver:

Ramos is a smallish southpaw built in the Ron Guidry/Jim Parque mold… Fellow southpaws Mark Mulder and Barry Zito get the headlines but Ramos should be a fine prospect in his own right.

Uh, right. How’s about Weaver?

When I saw Weaver in college, two things immediately struck me about him: first, he was murder on righties but southpaws abused him; and second, he threw 136 pitches. Weaver is a fine prospect but I do worry about his college workload, and he needs to find a pitch to counteract lefties; otherwise opposing managers will continue to stack their lineups — nearly 60% of the big league hitters he faced as a rookie batted from the left side.

In an attempt to regain some semblance of credibility, I would like to point out that Weaver never did figure out left-handers (and opposing managers knew this). Check out his career splits:

  • vs LHB: 3650 PA, .257/.304/.385 (think Todd Benzinger or Geoff Blum)
  • vs RHB: 4121 PA, .295/.359/.501 (think Jeff Kent or Derrek Lee)

See, I’m not so dumb after all! (We won’t mention the time I thought Jared Camp was a better Rule V pick than Johan Santana. Hey, at least I wasn’t the only one; what if the Marlins hadn’t traded Santana for Camp? A rotation headed by Santana and Josh Beckett would have been nice.)

On Corey Patterson, Milton Bradley, and Jayson Werth:

An excellent defender in center field and with speed to burn (33 steals in 42 tries), Patterson’s one area of weakness right now is strike-zone judgment (25 BBs/85 Ks in 475 ABs). A reluctance to draw walks can stall a player’s development at higher levels; however, there are exceptions — Vladimir Guerrero was one, and I suspect Patterson will be another. Patterson also had an explosive Arizona Fall League campaign, all the more impressive because he was playing against much older and more experienced players, and could see action with the big club as early as this season.

Patterson and Guerrero in the same sentence? Sure: “Corey Patterson… he’s no Vlad Guerrero.”

All jokes about “being a gamer” aside, Bradley is a serious prospect with serious tools. Often compared to a young Rondell White, the switch-hitting Bradley batted .329/.391/.526 in 346 Eastern League at bats.

Boo-yah:

  • Bradley: 3785 PA, .277/.371/.450, 115 OPS+
  • White: 5852 PA, .284/.336/.462, 108 OPS+

And finally, we come to Dex’s favorite player:

Werth hit .305/.403/.394 in 236 Carolina League at bats before posting a .273/.364/.355 line in Double-A. He controls the strike zone (54 BBs/63 Ks in 387 at bats, combined) and has very good speed (23 for 27 in stolen bases, combined). At 6’6″, he doesn’t look much like a catcher; a move to another position is possible, but wherever Werth ends up, he should be a good one.

That’s two in a row where I say something kind of smart. Werth did move to another position, and he did end up being a good one. Hooray for me. Let’s not talk about Patterson or Santana, eh?

Bud Black’s Short Leash

by Geoff Young on Jan 25, 2010 (11) Comments

I was flipping through The Bill James Handbook 2010 the other day and got to wondering about Bud Black’s managerial tendencies. Now that Black has three years under his belt, maybe we can start to make meaningful assertions about his style in the dugout.

James evaluates managers according to several different factors — adherence to a set lineup, platoon tendencies, substitution patterns, pitcher usage, tactics, etc. According to the available data, most of Black’s game is fairly middle of the road.

A few of Black’s tendencies, however, lie at or near the edge. Given that he is a former big-league pitcher and pitching coach, perhaps it should come as no surprise that much of what he does to distinguish himself concerns the way he handles his staff.

Among other things, Black doesn’t let his starters stay in the game too long. As a rookie manager in 2007, he led the National League with 63 quick hooks. In 2009, he finished third, with 50.

Black also ranks near the bottom in slow hooks and long outings (LO; more than 110 pitches), which seems like a desirable trait for someone in charge of so many young arms. For grins, here’s how Black compares with two well-known veteran skippers in terms of pitcher usage:

Pitcher Usage, 2007 – 2009: Baker, Black, Bochy
  2007 2008 2009
  Quick Slow LO Quick Slow LO Quick Slow LO
Dusty Baker 45 39 22 26 63 39 30 62 35
Bud Black 63 28 13 55 36 17 50 37 8
Bruce Bochy 26 50 36 24 59 42 42 40 32

Baker is notorious for working his pitchers hard, but check out former Padres manager Bochy. He led the NL in long outings in ’07 and ’08, dropping to second (behind Baker) last year. It would be interesting, and possibly a bit terrifying for Giants fans, to see how he has handled the talented youngsters Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.

Closer to home, I’m glad someone with a more conservative approach will be guiding Mat Latos et al. in 2010. Among MLB managers, only Oakland’s Bob Geren had fewer long outings (5) under his watch than Black in 2009. Although I don’t believe in a fanatical devotion to pitch counts, I do favor caution with young arms. Knowing that Black seems to agree makes me feel all warm and fuzzy.

There’s another aspect of Black’s managerial style worth discussing, but we’ll save that for some future date. Until then, watch out for that hook…