IVIE 2009: Relief Pitchers

You may have heard me on the radio during your Monday morning commute… if you happen to live in Montreal. Big thanks to Elliott, Shaun, and Denis at The Team 990 for having me on to talk Padres baseball.

IVIE community projections

I’ve also got a guest post up at Baseball Analysts. Thanks to Rich Lederer for that. I know most of you are familiar with Rich’s site, but for those who aren’t, basically it rocks; add it to your list of required reading.

Finally, Jonah‘s Expos appear to be pulling away from my Padres in the Seamheads Historical League. We hung in there for a long time, but right now it’s not looking real good. The pitching just hasn’t been there…

Speaking of which, it’s time to project the relievers. Oh man, I can hardly contain my excitement.

Padres IVIE Projections (Draft) for 2009: Relief Pitchers
Mike Adams 30 3.75
Heath Bell 75 3.48
Chris Britton 30 4.46
Mike Ekstrom 25 5.31
Justin Hampson 40 3.15
Cla Meredith 75 3.65
Ivan Nova 40 5.67
Scott Patterson 50 3.97
Duaner Sanchez 50 4.12
Joe Thatcher 25 3.86
Mark Worrell 60 3.65

Adams isn’t due back until at least the end of May, and I’m assuming there will be some rust when he returns.

I have no idea what to expect from Bell. He dominated in ’07, but fell apart the second half of last season and is moving into an unfamiliar role.

Britton starts the year in the minors, but with this group he’s almost assured of some innings. Ditto Ekstrom.

Hampson is a quietly effective 11th or 12th man on a staff. There’s no reason to think that won’t continue.

We studied Meredith at length in the 2009 Annual. The gist of it is this: Keep him out of high-leverage situations and he’ll provide value by soaking up innings.

Nova hasn’t pitched above A-ball and has been used almost exclusively as a starter in three minor-league seasons. If he sticks with the Padres, I imagine they will try to hide him as much as possible. Remember how Kevin Cameron used to disappear for days and even weeks at a time in ’07? At least Cameron was a reliever who had pitched in the high minors.

I was overly dismissive of Patterson in the 2009 Annual. Yeah, he’s old but he has a stellar minor-league track record. He’s kinda growing on me.

Sanchez used to be good, then got hurt and saw his velocity decline. As MB at Friar Forecast notes, he’s “not an easy guy to evaluate (with just numbers anyway).”

Thatcher? I still think he can pitch. I hope I’m right, because the Padres need some guys like that.

It’s funny that I’ve got Worrell with the same ERA as Meredith. That wasn’t planned. Worrell will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entire season.

Now it’s your turn. The polls will remain open until 6 p.m. PT, Sunday, March 22. I’ll publish the final tallies on Monday.

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10 Responses »

  1. Mike Adams 25 3.10
    Heath Bell 65 2.90
    Chris Britton 20 4.55
    Mike Ekstrom 15 5.60
    Justin Hampson 45 3.20
    Cla Meredith 55 3.50
    Ivan Nova 20 5.75
    Scott Patterson 50 3.50
    Duaner Sanchez 10 5.12
    Joe Thatcher 15 4.86
    Mark Worrell 60 2.95

  2. Worrell was “shut down” by the Padres yesterday and Bud Black said “it doesn’t look good”. Bummer. Khalil, we really did give you away!!!

  3. Nice, we’re Team 990 compadres (so to speak).

    Sorry for the awesomeness of le Grand Orange…not over yet, though!

  4. You can change my Worrell prediction to 0 and 0, KT was just on 1090 and said he might be out for 12 months.

  5. Worrell out for the season with Tommy John surgery scheduled for next week.

  6. I know Geoff likes to stay positive, but man this is looking to be a long, long season.

    Our main value back from KG is out. Yes, we had to dump salary, but it really, really feels like a solid starting shortstop should get more value.

    The Astros are closing in on us for the worst Spring record.

    BP has our farm at 25th of 30.

    We are still trolling for starters, meaning we are going to have a decent 1-2, a solid #5 (Baek; I know he is our #3 but he is not #3 quality), so basically we are going to 5-6 starters for our 3-4 spots.

    I know BP has us at 88 losses, and our stats should have had us at 91-94 losses last year (instead of the 99), but, I am fearing we break 100 this year. Maddux and Wolf were much, much better than the 3-4 guys we pick up. So even getting a return of CY, I fear a big drop in our already woeful pitching.

  7. OT … a MadFriar commenter has posted pics from Peoria … http://planetpadres.blogspot.com/2009/03/pictures-from-training-camp.html … ah, a taste of spring @ Peoria … wish I was there … not gonna happen this year …

  8. I don’t know what to expect this season except pain. It’s sad to see us go from a strong, well-made bullpen to a disaster waiting to happen with parts even throwaway teams don’t want.

  9. Mike Adams, 25, 2.80
    Heath Bell, 55, 3.10
    Chris Britton, 20, 5.00
    Mike Ekstrom, 30, 5.20
    Justin Hampson, 40, 4.85
    Cla Meredith, 70, 4.20
    Ivan Nova, 35, 5.15
    Scott Patterson, 35, 4.70
    Duaner Sanchez, 25, 5.80
    Joe Thatcher, 25, 7.50

    I don’t know who, I don’t know when, but there will be many others. And they’ll probably do as bad a job as those guys.