IVIE 2009 Projections

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the comatosely accurate IVIE projections for 2009 (explanation). For the hitters, I’ve included the name of a player whose career line is similar to our projection. As always, thanks to all who participated. Enjoy…

Padres IVIE Projections for 2009: Hitters
Player No. PA BA OBP SLG Comp
Matt Antonelli 14 224 .237 .322 .343 Desi Relaford
Henry Blanco 23 197 .234 .282 .344 Buck Martinez
Chris Burke 14 184 .234 .310 .341 Rob Wilfong
Everth Cabrera 12 130 .201 .282 .287 Johnnie LeMaster
David Eckstein 15 450 .274 .343 .350 Tom Herr
Cliff Floyd 16 208 .254 .342 .420 Michael Tucker
Jody Gerut 16 488 .287 .354 .455 Mike Easler
Brian Giles 16 554 .285 .378 .423 Lenny Dykstra
Adrian Gonzalez 15 661 .285 .368 .515 Rafael Palmeiro
Edgar Gonzalez 14 254 .268 .324 .382 Dan Gladden
Scott Hairston 16 355 .248 .313 .463 Joe Carter
Chase Headley 16 550 .270 .345 .448 Ken Caminiti
Nick Hundley 23 401 .240 .300 .389 Joe Oliver
Kevin Kouzmanoff 15 594 .278 .327 .471 Vinny Castilla
Luis Rodriguez 15 375 .260 .314 .336 Bill Russell
Will Venable 13 210 .257 .319 .369 Joe Orsulak

So, we’re looking at a starting lineup of Oliver, Palmeiro, Herr, Castilla, Russell, Caminiti, Easler, and Dykstra (without the wheels). I don’t know about you, but I can live with that. Here’s where I’m having some trouble…

Padres IVIE Projections for 2009: Pitchers
Player No. IP ERA
Cha Seung Baek 9 174 4.53
Kevin Correia 9 113 4.75
Josh Geer 9 84 5.01
Wade LeBlanc 8 61 5.52
Jake Peavy 9 198 3.11
Chris Young 9 164 3.69

I have a feeling that Geer and LeBlanc are going to exceed our projected innings. I just don’t see a lot of other options… Only two of us offered projections for relievers, so I didn’t bother compiling those… It will be “exciting” to see this staff pitch at Coors Field…

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16 Responses »

  1. I hope Adrian doesn’t get 660 PAs … my observation is that his performance declines when overused … is there any way look at data and get a better sense of the impact of this on Adrian?

  2. A little bit of blah, blah, blah … but here’s a clip of Randy Ready talking about the young players that are on the boundary of AAA and MLB … http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200903203984047 … ‘cept it’s not clear to me why Chase Headley is mentioned … he’s clearly past that boundary … but I guess he gets mentioned so that the outlook appears a bit brighter …

  3. I’m not much of a predictor … but it just occured to me that one of Eckstein or Luis Rodriquez will be doing so poorly by the end of May that, if Antonellli is doing OK at Portland, he will get a call up at that time … let’s just spin it like this: the Padres will have a window-of-opportunity for Antonelli … and I’ll be rooting for him to be ready to pass thru it!

  4. It would probably be reasonable at this time to launch predictions regarding our favorite team’s record for the upcoming season. I see the Padres as 69-95 team, thanks to the mediocrity of the NL West. I hope I’m wrong.

  5. According to Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis, this line-up can produce 751 runs.

    Runs per Game 4.634
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
    Giles Adrian Rodriguez Kouzmanoff Gerut Hundley Headley pitcher Eckstein

    For pitcher, i used .175 OBP/.150 SLG.

  6. Someone correct me if I’m way off, but is Geer even a lock to be in San Diego – and not in Portland – in a few weeks?

  7. Geer, as I just learned from mlb.com and the SD Union Tribune was in fact cut yesterday (Monday). I guess I wasn’t way off? Not sure what to think of this transaction. Can anyone weigh in?

  8. #4@Lance Richardson: Sure, why not. I think I’m on record as having us at 74-88, give or take a few.

    #7@Padres fan in New Jersey: I’m impressed that Geer didn’t make the staff. That must have required considerable effort.

  9. #8@Geoff Young: It’s my understanding that Geer’s not 100% healthy … here’s a clip from a MadFriar’s interview of Grady Fuson …

    Josh Geer has been slightly losing velocity each year since we took him out of Rice. When we drafted him he threw in the high-80s and was touching 90, and now it is around the mid-80s. Do we know the reason behind it? No. But has he become a better pitcher? Yes. He’s never been injured until he has a little bit of an elbow problem at the end of last year, so that could or could not be the cause of it.

  10. OT … one of Corey Brock’s better blog posts … http://coreybrock.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/03/moorad_on_peavy.html … Moorad on Peavy and personal “scouting report”s on Silva and Gregerson …

  11. OT … a bit of gamesmanship by the Giants already … they are having Lincecum pitch in a minor league rather than the final spring game vs Padres so that the Padres won’t get a look at him before his start versus them early in the season :-)


    Game notes just came out and the weekend’s starters are Kevin Pucetas and Joe Martinez. Should be Tim Lincecum and Randy Johnson. Turns out both will pitch in minor league games instead, said Manager Bruce Bochy, in order to provide a more controlled environment. Johnson needs to build his pitches after missing time with biceps tendinitis. He’ll throw in a camp game, while Lincecum will face minor league hitters from another organization. Not sure which.

    The other factor: Johnson would’ve faced the Brewers, the team he’ll oppose in his first start. And Lincecum would’ve gotten the Padres, who he’ll face in his second start. Pitching coach Dave Righetti said the order came down that they want to keep Lincecum “off the Padres.”

  12. OT: Some guy named Geoff wrote a fantastic article on the Padres at THT:


  13. #14@Pat:

    “Pay attention at the ballpark: the life you save could be your own.”

    That’s because of all the bats that will be shattered by the back of the rotation, consisting of Baek, Correia, Hill, LeBlanc, Geer, Ramos, Carillo, a resurgent Andy Hawkins, a holographic projection of Nuke LaLoosh, and my old high school shop teacher. Right? Right? Please tell me that’s right.

    Remember the story about Norm Cash trying to hit against Nolan Ryan holding a table leg instead of a bat? I feel like there will be days in 2009 when we should let a slow-pitch softball player take the mound.

  14. #15@Tom Waits: Yes, Tom, yes, that’s right.

    I hear there is a young side arming knuckleball prospect in Japan. Perhaps we could sign her.