Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the comatosely accurate IVIE projections for 2009 (explanation). For the hitters, I’ve included the name of a player whose career line is similar to our projection. As always, thanks to all who participated. Enjoy…
| Player | No. | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | Comp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Antonelli | 14 | 224 | .237 | .322 | .343 | Desi Relaford |
| Henry Blanco | 23 | 197 | .234 | .282 | .344 | Buck Martinez |
| Chris Burke | 14 | 184 | .234 | .310 | .341 | Rob Wilfong |
| Everth Cabrera | 12 | 130 | .201 | .282 | .287 | Johnnie LeMaster |
| David Eckstein | 15 | 450 | .274 | .343 | .350 | Tom Herr |
| Cliff Floyd | 16 | 208 | .254 | .342 | .420 | Michael Tucker |
| Jody Gerut | 16 | 488 | .287 | .354 | .455 | Mike Easler |
| Brian Giles | 16 | 554 | .285 | .378 | .423 | Lenny Dykstra |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 15 | 661 | .285 | .368 | .515 | Rafael Palmeiro |
| Edgar Gonzalez | 14 | 254 | .268 | .324 | .382 | Dan Gladden |
| Scott Hairston | 16 | 355 | .248 | .313 | .463 | Joe Carter |
| Chase Headley | 16 | 550 | .270 | .345 | .448 | Ken Caminiti |
| Nick Hundley | 23 | 401 | .240 | .300 | .389 | Joe Oliver |
| Kevin Kouzmanoff | 15 | 594 | .278 | .327 | .471 | Vinny Castilla |
| Luis Rodriguez | 15 | 375 | .260 | .314 | .336 | Bill Russell |
| Will Venable | 13 | 210 | .257 | .319 | .369 | Joe Orsulak |
So, we’re looking at a starting lineup of Oliver, Palmeiro, Herr, Castilla, Russell, Caminiti, Easler, and Dykstra (without the wheels). I don’t know about you, but I can live with that. Here’s where I’m having some trouble…
| Player | No. | IP | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cha Seung Baek | 9 | 174 | 4.53 |
| Kevin Correia | 9 | 113 | 4.75 |
| Josh Geer | 9 | 84 | 5.01 |
| Wade LeBlanc | 8 | 61 | 5.52 |
| Jake Peavy | 9 | 198 | 3.11 |
| Chris Young | 9 | 164 | 3.69 |
I have a feeling that Geer and LeBlanc are going to exceed our projected innings. I just don’t see a lot of other options… Only two of us offered projections for relievers, so I didn’t bother compiling those… It will be “exciting” to see this staff pitch at Coors Field…
I hope Adrian doesn’t get 660 PAs … my observation is that his performance declines when overused … is there any way look at data and get a better sense of the impact of this on Adrian?
A little bit of blah, blah, blah … but here’s a clip of Randy Ready talking about the young players that are on the boundary of AAA and MLB … http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200903203984047 … ‘cept it’s not clear to me why Chase Headley is mentioned … he’s clearly past that boundary … but I guess he gets mentioned so that the outlook appears a bit brighter …
I’m not much of a predictor … but it just occured to me that one of Eckstein or Luis Rodriquez will be doing so poorly by the end of May that, if Antonellli is doing OK at Portland, he will get a call up at that time … let’s just spin it like this: the Padres will have a window-of-opportunity for Antonelli … and I’ll be rooting for him to be ready to pass thru it!
It would probably be reasonable at this time to launch predictions regarding our favorite team’s record for the upcoming season. I see the Padres as 69-95 team, thanks to the mediocrity of the NL West. I hope I’m wrong.
According to Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis, this line-up can produce 751 runs.
Runs per Game 4.634
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Giles Adrian Rodriguez Kouzmanoff Gerut Hundley Headley pitcher Eckstein
For pitcher, i used .175 OBP/.150 SLG.