Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

Chris Jenkins at the San Diego Union-Tribune has a nice little profile on new manager Bud Black that covers everything from his time working graveyard shift at a paper mill in Washington state to a blood disorder that afflicts both of his daughters.

From the article:

“I went by the Aztecs baseball office, knocked on the door and nobody was there,” Black says. “I pulled out a piece of paper and wrote ‘Hi, Coach (Jim) Dietz, this is Buddy Black, a left-handed pitcher/first baseman, Longview, Wash., Lower Columbia College. My parents live in Southern California and I’m interested in playing for San Diego State, da da da da da . . . ‘ And I shoved the note under the door.”

Dietz, without ever watching the kid play, offered Black a scholarship before he’d returned to the Pacific Northwest. Unthinkable. Preposterous.

Naw. Just the story of Black’s life.

Gotta like that initiative. Merry Christmas, folks!

NOG t-shirts and stuff are here. Thanks to reader Clayton for the best nickname ever. The teddy bear cracks me up…

The San Diego Union-Tribune is reporting that the Padres have signed second baseman Marcus Giles to a 1-year deal worth $3.25 million with incentives that could kick that up to $4.25 million. There’s also a club option for 2008 at $4 million. Giles still has to take a physical, but if the U-T is saying it’s a go, then who am I to argue?

The Padres have been interested in the younger Giles for a very long time, since rumors of a swap involving ex-Padre Brett Tomko surfaced in November 2002, well before the elder Giles came to San Diego. More recently, the Braves had sought reliever Scott Linebrink, who Kevin Towers has been reluctant to move.

Last week, faced with arbitration and possibly having to pay up to $6 million for his services in 2007, the Braves non-tendered Giles, leaving him free to sign with any team. The Padres, who have been pursuing him for at least 4 years, finally got their man and it didn’t cost them anything — no Linebrink, no draft picks — beyond a base salary that is lower than what Mark DeRosa and Jose Valentin will be making next season.

Giles, who turns 29 in May, suffered through his worst big-league season in 2006, hitting just .262/.341/.387 in 141 games for Atlanta. That marked the first time over a full season that he’d failed to reach at least the 112 OPS+ mark. Giles’ best performance came in 2003, when he batted .316/.390/.526. For his career, Giles owns a .285/.361/.448 line over parts of six seasons. Gotta love that .163 ISO from a middle infielder who has yet to reach 30.

With the caveat that second basemen sometimes age poorly (Quilvio Veras, anyone?), Giles brings a blend of patience and power to the plate — similar to his older brother. He also represents a serious upgrade defensively over incumbent Todd Walker, who now becomes a tremendous utility player and left-handed bat off the bench.

Giles’ list of similar players through age 28 is impressive, if varied. Several current players make the cut, including Brian Roberts (#1), Adam Kennedy (#2), Michael Young (#3), Walker (#5), Orlando Hudson (#6), Alfonso Soriano (#8), and Jeff Kent (#9). After Giles’ monster age 25 season, his top comp was Soriano. Obviously their paths have diverged, but the point is, there is significant upside here.

The Bill James Handbook 2007 projects Giles at .281/.361/.436 for the coming season. By comparison, Walker is projected for .280.349/.423, while Ray Durham, the class of this winter’s class, checks in at .282/.357/.461. As always when consulting the crystal ball, take results with a silo full of salt.

This reminds me, here’s a guess at how the 2007 lineup looks as of now, along with their BJH 2007 projected batting lines:

1. Marcus Giles, 2b, .281/.361/.436
2. Brian Giles, rf, .283/.401/.464
3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1b, .287/.345/.473
4. Josh Bard, c, .283/.348/.434
5. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3b, .317/.378/.546
6. Mike Cameron, cf, .250/.343/.446
7. Khalil Greene, ss, .261/.326/.437
8. Terrmel Sledge, lf, .274/.350/.462

The Kouzmanoff line is outrageous and I don’t believe it. Possible? Sure, but best not to count on anything near those numbers. That’s basically what Aramis Ramirez has done over the past three seasons.

Right.

At any rate, if we’re to believe the BJH 2007 projections (again, a very big “if”), the Padres will see improvement at second base, right field, and third base (duh); stay about the same at first base, center field, shortstop, and left field; and experience a bit of a drop behind the plate. Of course, Kouzmanoff and Sledge (and to a lesser degree, Bard) are unknowns, so we’ll see. On paper, though, this is a better lineup than what the Padres sent out to battle last season, when they won the National League West.

The other thing the Giles signing does is provide the Padres with a potentially lethal bench. Walker and Russell Branyan give the club two legitimate left-handed bats off the bench, which is something that had gone missing with the departure of Mark Sweeney and Robert Fick following the 2005 season. The upside is that we’re likely to see fewer at-bats in key situations from Geoff Blum. The downside is that it’s becoming harder to envision a spot on the big-league roster for Paul McAnulty, who really deserves a shot.

What next? Well, the Padres still have a shade under $20 about $11 [thanks to Steve in the comments for pointing out the error] million of wiggle room in their budget, so an upgrade in left field would seem to be a possibility. Also, as it stands right now, Mike Thompson would be the fifth starter. No offense to Thompson, who I’ve been following since his days at Lake Elsinore and who did a fantastic job as a fill-in last season, but I’d like to see the Padres get stronger in that area. Barry Zito’s name keeps surfacing, but the David Wells talk seems to carry more weight (pun intended) and I expect something to get done on that front. Having Wells and Greg Maddux at the back end would be sweet.

Okay, to wrap up: The Padres now have a matching set of Gileses (to go with the matching set of Hoffmans). Marcus’ signing is still pending a physical. He’s expected to bat toward the top of the order, most likely leading off. He’s a better defender than Walker (and possibly Josh Barfield), and he’s cheaper than DeRosa and Valentin.

Anything else? Oh yeah, he’s not orange.

I’m pleased to note that last week’s post about Greg Maddux coming to the Padres has been published in the latest edition of the San Diego Reader (p. 195, also online). [Full disclosure: Back in the mid-'90s, I played in a band with the editor who decided to run this. On a personal note, I hadn't been in contact with Robert for several years, so it was awesome to reconnect with him.]

If you’re just discovering Ducksnorts via the San Diego Reader, welcome and thanks for swinging by our little corner of the Web (and if you’ve been coming here for months or years, please bear with me as we get folks up to speed — you might enjoy looking back at some of the old posts, and there is a book update buried in here somewhere). Feel free to take a look around the place. If you’d like to join the conversation, read our comments policy and jump on in — we won’t bite. Well, maybe a little.

Here are some of our most recent posts:

• Maddux Comes to San Diego — Gee, this looks familiar. So, what do you think of this signing?
• Remembering Gwynn’s 3000th Hit — Feel free to add your recollections of that dribbler into right field in Montreal.
• Scoring at Petco — I sometimes do heavier analysis; this one takes a look at how well (or not) the Padres are using Petco Park to their advantage.
• Waiting for NOG, Pondering the Best in Padres History — As part of the book I’m working on (more info below), I’m trying to figure out who are the best Padres players ever at each position; maybe you have a suggestion?

And here are some blasts from the past that you might enjoy:

• Nine Signs You Think About the San Diego Padres Too Much — General silliness.
• Gap Dirt — Wow, I’d totally forgotten about this guy; one of the most ineffectually obnoxious fans I’ve ever met.
• Scoring at Petco — I sometimes do heavier analysis; this one takes a look at how well (or not) the Padres are using Petco Park to their advantage.
• Ducksnorts Unofficial Guide to Restaurants Near Petco Park — Pretty self-explanatory; we also have one of these specifically for taco shops.
• Ducksnorts: Best of 2005 — This is a downloadable compilation of posts from 2005.
• Padres Final Baseball Game at Qualcomm Stadium — Honestly I didn’t think I’d ever miss the Q, but sometimes I kind of do; not enough to ever leave Petco Park, which is a great place to watch a game, but there was a lot of history in Mission Valley.

Finally, I’ve got my hands in a few other things that might interest you (book update alert):

• Geoff’s Other Baseball Writing and Media Appearances — I’ve done some writing for other web sites, and I also pop up on the occasional radio program.
• Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual — I’m writing a book about the Padres; this has all the latest information (publication date, price, contents, some excerpts, etc).

And if you still can’t get enough, I also write at a more general baseball blog called Knuckle Curve.

Okay, that should do it. Again, welcome and have a look around the place. If you want something to talk about today, this morning’s U-T is reporting that the Padres are looking at signing Marcus Giles (no shock there) and also everyone’s favorite ex-Dodger, Jayson Werth.

There you go. Happy Thursday!

While we’re awaiting word on Non-Orange Giles (NOG), I thought I’d throw some questions your way. I’m researching the best Padres all time at each position, and while many of the choices are pretty clear cut, some others are not and I could see arguments made on behalf of one or more players depending on how, e.g., one values peak performance versus longevity. In that vein, here are a few items I’d like to get some input on:

• Terry Kennedy is the best catcher in franchise history, but who is #2? Gene Tenace was way more productive than Benito Santiago, but Tenace played a lot of first base in San Diego and caught over 400 fewer games than Santiago and his .298 OBP. Who do you like, and why?
• First base is extremely competitive. Is it sacrilege to consider Ryan Klesko over Nate Colbert in the top spot? And who is #3? You could make a pretty strong case for any of Wally Joyner, Fred McGriff, or Jack Clark. (Sorry, Steve Garvey is not my Padre.)
• Who’s #3 at third base behind Ken Caminiti and Phil Nevin — Gary Sheffield or Graig Nettles?
• Who’s #3 at shortstop behind Garry Templeton and Khalil Greene — do you take two good years of Tony Fernandez or four years of Ozzie Smith hitting .231/.295/.278 with otherworldly defense?
• Who’s behind Gene Richards in left field — Carmelo Martinez? Greg Vaughn? Rickey Henderson? Kerry Robinson? (Heh, just wanted to make sure you’re paying attention.)
• In center, Steve Finley is the obvious choice for #1. After that, where do we go — Johnny Grubb? Kevin McReynolds? Mark Kotsay? Cito Gaston?

So. What say you?