Friday Links (22 Dec 06)
Fri, Dec 22, 2006
by Geoff Young
Getting ready for the holidays, so this will be brief:
- Mailbag: Do Padres need a big bat? (Padres.com). Lyle Spencer frets about the Padres defense. One statement in particular fascinates me:
But pitching and defense go hand in hand. And when the defense falters, it tends to wear on pitchers emotionally, causing erosion in their performance.
I don’t know that poor defense wears on pitchers emotionally so much as allows more runs to score (which, of course, causes erosion in their performance). For the record, I believe concerns over the Padres’ defense are way overstated. Marcus Giles (who wasn’t signed when Spencer wrote his piece) will do as well as Josh Barfield at second, and I don’t really care how Kevin Kouzmanoff plays over at third — there is no way that overall he can be a downgrade from what the Pads ran out there last year. That leaves left field, where Dave Roberts’ glove will be difficult to replace. In other words, the Padres have a potential issue at one position. I can live with that.
- Speaking of Giles, the Transaction Oracle discusses his signing. I like the projection: .276/.356/.406.
- Starting pitching is: Padres’ top priority (North County Times). Shaun O’Neill mentions a few options to round out the rotation, including the ubiquitous David Wells and the injured Mark Mulder, as well as some names we haven’t heard: Tim Hudson, Jon Lieber, and Jon Garland. Two questions immediately leap to mind:
- Which of these guys would best fit the team?
- What would it take to get him?
Based on age and recent performance, I’d think Lieber would be the cheapest. Also, those walk totals are pretty similar to what Wells would provide. Hudson’s career is headed in the wrong direction but he might fetch more based on past history. Now doesn’t strike me as a good time to buy that stock. Garland looks like Brian Lawrence with more wins and a World Series ring. My guess is that the White Sox will want too much for him. Lieber could work, if the price is right. No clue what that would be.
- I’ve got two posts up at Knuckle Curve that might amuse you: Baseball Movies and Nine Baseball Predictions for 2007. Just a little frivolous fun for a Friday.
Happy whatever-you-celebrate, everyone! I’m taking the next few days off to spend time with family. Feel free to hang out and chat, or not — whatever works for you. Later…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
December 22, 2006 at 9:43 am
Jose Cruz is actually a very good corner outfielder. When he’s out there, I don’t expect a dropoff from Roberts.
Sledge/Branyan is a different story.
December 22, 2006 at 9:49 am
Trevor gets a very nice nod from an unamed source in an article about Otsuka losing his job to Gagne. “I’m not sure he’ll ever get his fastball back,” he said. “But, I think he’s going to be the next Trevor Hoffman. His changeup is that good.”
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
December 22, 2006 at 9:51 am
Re: 2 I think Gange is done and will get lit up the first month of the Season, Aki will be closing by May.
December 22, 2006 at 11:17 am
According to the Star-Telegram, the Padres are out of the hunt for Mulder who is now deciding between the Cardinals and the Rangers
http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/spo.....298394.htm
I’m really intrigued by Towers continuing to say that starting pitching is the number one priority, even though we’ve got 4 high quality major league starters and we’re often able to scrape someone up in the spring to perform at least league average work.
I wonder/hope that the drive to acquire another starter is motivated by the chance to acquire a young corner OF from Toronto (Rios) or Tampa (Baldelli/Crawford-hopefully Baldelli) by dangling a decent starting pitcher.
Of the pitchers that Geoff mentioned, the one that I would want the most is Hudson. Not all of his numbers are trending down-his k/9 actually was a little higher last year than it has been. He just walked more people this year than last year. He’d be an incredible acquisition to let work with all of the minds in this clubhouse (Black, Maddux, Balsley) to regain his form. However, I agree that he would likely be pretty expensive to acquire. We don’t match up so well unless they’re interested in Linebrink as the centerpiece of a deal.
December 22, 2006 at 11:56 am
When Sandy Alderson was on Mighty XX the other day w/ Coach, he said getting Mulder wasn’t a case of $$$ it was a case of concern about how soon he’d be ready and whether or not he’d ever be back to his old self. I’m not concerned with the Padres dropping out of that hunt.
Also, in the same interview, Sandy also said that his scouting reports had Kouzmanoff performing at a higher level defensively than most reports indicated.
December 22, 2006 at 12:18 pm
re: #4 (starting pitching is the number one priority) … could be some gamesmanship to drive up the price of the remaining SPs to other clubs! Or just a basic statement that they are happy with the lineup they are projecting and so just stating the obvious, something that is always true for all teams: you can never have enough pitching.
December 22, 2006 at 1:30 pm
4: “we’re often able to scrape someone up in the spring to perform at least league average work.”
my response: Dewon Brazelton, Tim Redding, Darrel May, Ismael Valdez, Sterling Hitchcock…
December 22, 2006 at 1:34 pm
Shhh, I think Brazelton is the only one currently under contract. Let’s not give anyone ideas…
December 22, 2006 at 1:42 pm
I am liking the Barfield deal more and more. Of course, Kouzmanoff has to hit, but Walker is a almost a lock at upper 700s, low 800s (but more likely upper 700s) OPS vs RHP, and Giles should be in the 750-760s against LHP and his share of RHP. That could aggregate to a 780 OPS at second with decent defense. The gap between that and Barfield will not be big at all. Pulling that off in an insane year in money, and that is great.
Getting a bigger bat in LF and another quality starter would be awesome, but I can live with nothing happening. We can get Thompson/Stauffer as 5th starters if need be.
December 22, 2006 at 1:53 pm
Have a Merry Christmas, everybody.
The Padres got the second baseman and third baseman they want and we like. Good enough. Got Maddux to finally come here to pitch and be a tutor to the young guys. Excellent.
A good way to celebrate.
December 22, 2006 at 3:09 pm
Anyone else see that Chop-chop got an NRI w/ the M’s?
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.....;fext=.jsp
December 22, 2006 at 4:03 pm
Regarding #9 above:
Barfield’s OPS last year wasn’t even .750, if I recall correctly. Thus, the “gap” you mention will play out in our favor.
December 22, 2006 at 4:06 pm
11: I still kinda want to see him succeed.
12: Also, I believe Giles is a better fielder (Walker is horrible, though).
December 22, 2006 at 5:01 pm
7-While I would argue that we actually got pretty good production out of Valdes, I was really referring to young guys (Hensley was one) that we give a shot at the rotation. Stauffer and Thompson are the two most likely suspects this year.
December 22, 2006 at 6:06 pm
To go with what Geoff said about the team’s defense going down at one position (LF), it’s also the least important defensive position. So if that’s their only defensive problem, it’s not much of one.
December 22, 2006 at 6:16 pm
To kind of answer Pat’s question from the previous discussion about my rankings, there are a few “quirks” in the ratings. For example, Butch Metzger was named Rookie of they Year, and every major award winner automatically makes the list. The same goes for Sterling Hitchcock (1998 NLCS MVP). Same goes for Gaylord Perry and Mark Davis (Cy Young Award winners).
If the list was shorter or Padres history was more storied, maybe I wouldn’t have these rules. But I like them.
As for the general lack of pitchers, the Padres haven’t had very good ones to choose from. I think Hurst and Whitson were better than Show. Show just hung around longer, so he is the leader in some of the Padres career leaders charts. The types of seasons the pitchers had are more important than their career numbers. That’s why Kevin Brown shows up. Other than Randy Jones’ couple great years, he had the best season by a Padres pitcher. He should have won the Cy Young Award.
Another reason why there is a lack of pitcher is because I use win shares to evaluate players, and pitchers often get underrated using that tool, especially when they pitch the number of innings they do these days.
Hope it’s OK to answer that here.
December 22, 2006 at 8:20 pm
Re: 12
Fair point, but I am guessing that Barfield’s numbers will increase, because he is getting older and better and that his batting soul will not be so consistently crushed by the Petco Gods (recall his home/road splits: 638/838 (OPS). So it would not be shock me to see him play low 800s ball.
December 22, 2006 at 8:21 pm
Geoff, what about at catcher? Piazza was better than Bard will be, don’t you think? I remember, for instance, reading that Piazza’a CERA was the lowest in the NL.
December 22, 2006 at 9:41 pm
17: His OPS will almost certainly go up if only because of park effects.
December 22, 2006 at 9:41 pm
18: CERA is one of the most meaningless stats in existence.
December 22, 2006 at 9:43 pm
Hey, Kevin. Thanks for responding. I understand your rationale better now as I was unfamiliar with your criteria before. I’d still like to make an argument for Show though. Granted his appearance at the top of the leaderboards is due in part to longevity, but that is an important criteria when evaluating players in a franchise’s history, imo.
Also, he did have some solid seasons before being injured. For example, his ERA+ was above 100 in every season from 1982-1988 except one, including seasons of 130, 123, and 114.
Comparing him to Whitson, he exceeds him in longevity, and hence counting stats, but he also has a better winning percentage, ERA, ERA+ (by one point
), K/9, and nearly the same WHIP. In just 22 more starts he has 13 more CG’s and 5 more SHO’s. Combined with his being at the top of the leaderboard for career W’s, I think he could easily be considered above Whitson.
But I guess if you use WS, he may not make the grade. BTW, could you tell me where you find WS for players? I checked WARP at BP, and while Whitson’s best two seasons are better than any Show had, Show still has the career edge.
December 22, 2006 at 10:11 pm
Win Shares through 2001, I think it is, are in Bill James Win Shares book that came out after that season.
Recent win shares can be found at hardballtimes.com.
Maybe Show should be added. You could certainly be right.
December 23, 2006 at 12:00 am
Whitson has 68 career win shares. Show has 83 career win shares. The reason Whitson comes out ahead of him is on the strength of his two big seasons — 1989 and 1990. In those seasons, Whitson was among the top five starters in the National League. Show never had a peak like that.
Having said that, I add one player a year to the rankings (one for every season the Padres have played), and Show could be this year’s choice. But I wouldn’t put him ahead of Whitson.
December 23, 2006 at 12:41 am
Andy Benes and Andy Ashby are right there with those guys, too.
December 23, 2006 at 1:43 am
Yeah, Whitson was really exceptional in those two seasons. Kind of a strange time to peak, but stranger things have happened.
So I have to buy a book to get WS? Bummer.
Enjoyed discussing this with you. Cheers!
December 23, 2006 at 9:17 am
Burroughs got a minor league deal.
http://tinylink.com/?1j3vDPNGI7
That from Lookout Landing doesn’t give much hope but it’s a good list for how Padres-M’s guys have done crossing teams.
December 23, 2006 at 10:28 am
Happy holidays, ’snorters!
Disappointed v/v Mulder, but I will have faith in KT where the pitching staff is concerned.
Hoping Santa brings us Burrell or another hitter…I don’t feel as concerned now as I did a month ago about the Offense, but I’m not ready to do cartwheels either.
December 23, 2006 at 5:19 pm
Adrian played winter ball?
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
… article has a few other notes of interest.
December 23, 2006 at 5:38 pm
mlb.com has a pretty decent depth chart … http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....sp?c_id=sd
December 23, 2006 at 10:22 pm
29: I think it’s interesting that nobody is listed as the reserve center fielder.
December 23, 2006 at 11:02 pm
28: I seem to recall hearing something about Adrian playing with his brother in the Mexican winter league. It’s too bad they don’t report actually informative stats (OBP, SLG), so we could learn if Adrian’s doing a good job being selective, or if he’s still hitting for a lot of power.