Padres Hire Coaches; Ducksnorts on the Radio

by Geoff Young on Nov 18, 2006 (51) Comments

New manager and SDSU alum Bud Black is bringing on a couple more bodies [I misread the original article; big thanks to reader Matt for pointing out the error] former Aztecs to help round out the coaching staff. Craig Colbert and Bobby Meacham will be working under Black in 2007.

Colbert, manager at Triple-A Portland since 2004, is one of two candidates (third base coach Glenn Hoffman being the other) to replace Tony Muser as bench coach. Colbert’s hiring comes as a bit of a surprise — it was announced earlier this week that he would be returning for a fourth season as Portland’s manager.

Meacham spent 2006 as third-base coach for the Florida Marlins and is expected to move across the diamond for the Padres. Meacham, a former manager in the Angels organization, replaces Tye Waller in that capacity.

As for Waller, before becoming the Pads’ first-base coach, he was their director of player development. Among other things, he hired Darren Balsley as a minor-league pitching coach and advocated for opening the second base job to Josh Barfield.

Ducksnorts on the Radio

Regular reader and commenter Ryguy hosts a radio show and has been good enough to invite me to talk about the Padres and baseball in general. The show will run tomorrow (Sunday) morning from 8 to 10 a.m. PT on WMAR. You can catch the live webcast at their site.

My segment comes on around 8:20, but you’ll want to stick around for the entire show — they’ve got some great guests lined up, including Maury Brown, Richard Billingsley of the College Football Research Center, Ken Pomeroy, and Kenneth Massey.

So, if you’re up for a little hot stove and college football talk, be sure to swing by and give a listen Sunday morning. And thanks again to Ryguy for having me on the show!

Programming Note

This is my final live transmission for a while. I’m taking the week off for Thanksgiving, but I’ll have some things lined up for you while I’m gone — at the very least we’ll have an open thread every day. I’ll also have some stuff up at Knuckle Curve, and of course, there are any number of fine blogs you can go read over there on the right.

I’ll be back online November 29 with a pretty big announcement (I’m sitting on this one over vacation because it’s still kind of freaking me out — but trust me, it’s a good thing). Meantime, keep the conversation going and be good to one another.

Go Padres!

Padres, Mets Swap Spare Parts

by Geoff Young on Nov 16, 2006 (220) Comments

The Padres have traded outfielder Ben Johnson and right-handed reliever Jon Adkins for two bullpen arms, lefty Royce Ring and righty Heath Bell. Although not as interesting as, say, Don’t Fear the Reaper performed on ukelele, this is one of those minor deals that could help both clubs.

Other Reaction:

With the apparent departure of Dave Roberts, there had been some talk of Johnson taking over as the everyday left fielder in San Diego next year. But Johnson — despite my enthusiasm for him many moons ago — really is more of a fourth outfielder, and Terrmel Sledge, Paul McAnulty, and others are already available to take on that role.

Seems to me this just sharpens the focus on acquiring a big bat to play left field. Whether that would be one of the many free agents (Moises Alou, Barry Bonds [shudder], Frank Catalanotto, David Dellucci, Cliff Floyd, Luis Gonzalez, Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Shannon Stewart) or possibly making some kind of trade (Pat Burrell? Adam Dunn?) is anyone’s guess.

Adkins and Bell look like fairly interchangeable parts to me. Both are 29 years old, both have ERAs over 4.50. Adkins has more experience, Bell has better control. Bell is from Oceanside, which seems to work in a guy’s favor these days. Bell also has a much stronger minor-league record, although some of that could be due to the fact that he’s worked almost exclusively in relief, while Adkins spent much of his career as a starter.

Adkins vs Bell, Minor Leagues
  IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Adkins 733.2 4.53 10.00 0.79 2.71 6.19
Bell 569.2 3.34 8.19 0.79 2.42 10.23
Stats courtesy of the Baseball Cube.

Gotta like those strikeouts.

As for Ring, he’s another local product. Born in La Mesa, Ring was selected 18th overall in the 2002 draft by the Chicago White Sox. A year later, he was dealt to the Mets as part of a package for ex-Padre Roberto Alomar. Although he doesn’t have much of a big-league track record, Ring’s minor-league numbers aren’t too shabby. The ERA is nice, but I’d like to see the walks a little lower and the strikeouts a little higher.

Will this deal help the Padres? I don’t know, but as reader Richard notes in the comments, it is pretty cool to acquire a guy named Ring and a guy named Bell in the same trade.

I wonder if either of them can play the ukelele…

Webb Deservedly Wins Cy Young Award

by Geoff Young on Nov 15, 2006 (184) Comments

I know I’m supposed to toe the party line and support my guy, but I’d rather see the writers get it right. I love Trevor Hoffman, and being at Petco Park when he broke Lee Smith’s all-time saves record is not something I’ll soon forget, but there’s no way he belonged in a serious discussion about the National League Cy Young Award this year, despite some assertions to the contrary.

The BBWAA ended up giving Hoffman plenty of support — maybe as acknowledgment of a great career that has been overlooked by too many for too long — but ultimately made the right choice in picking Brandon Webb. The last way I wanted to spend this winter is defending a Hoffman Cy Young Award with some lame comeback like, “Yeah, that’s baseball for you.”

Acknowledging that Bill James’ win shares aren’t a substitute for actual analysis, they do provide a pretty solid indication of a player’s value. Here’s how this year’s Cy Young candidates measure up:

NL Cy Young Award Votes and Pitching Win Shares
Player 1st-place votes Points Pitching win shares (Rank)
Brandon Webb 15 103 23.2 (2nd)
Trevor Hoffman 12 77 11.0 (32nd)
Chris Carpenter 2 63 21.8 (4th)
Roy Oswalt 3 31 22.0 (3rd)
Carlos Zambrano – 6 19.2 (7th)
Billy Wagner – 4 12.3 (25th)
John Smoltz – 3 19.4 (6th)
Takashi Saito – 1 14.4 (13th)
Source: Voting via ESPN; win shares via Hardball Times.

As reader Kevin notes in the comments, the guy who merited serious consideration but received none is Cincinnati’s Bronson Arroyo, who actually led the NL in pitching win shares. Dude had a fantastic season in a very difficult environment and he ends up getting zero votes.

As for Hoffman, I’ll take him as my team’s closer any day of the week, but he wasn’t anywhere near the best pitcher in the NL in 2006. For as much of a Padres and Hoffman fan as I am, I’d rather see the voters get it right than have my guy take an award from someone more deserving of it.

Can Giles Bounce Back?

by Geoff Young on Nov 13, 2006 (106) Comments

There’s been some discussion recently on the value of Brian Giles. Specifically, did his 2006 season (.263/.374/.397) represent an aberration or the beginning of the end?

Giles turns 36 in January, so it’s tempting to believe that the latter is the case. However, there is precedent for a player performing at a very high level up until his mid-30s, declining, and then re-establishing himself in his late-30s. And we actually don’t have to look that far back to find such a player.

But before we go there, let’s check out some other players who are comparable to Giles according to Baseball-Reference.com:

Players Similar to Brian Giles through Age 35
Name Years AB OPS+
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Bob Johnson 1933-1941 4878 137
Larry Doby 1947-1959 5348 136
Fred Lynn 1974-1987 5985 133
Tim Salmon 1992-2004 5723 129
Ryan Klesko 1992-2006 5249 131
Dante Bichette 1988-1999 5415 106
Ellis Burks 1987-2000 6044 125
David Justice 1989-2001 5227 130
Paul O’Neill 1985-1998 5645 126
Ray Lankford 1990-2002 5547 123

For what it’s worth, Giles’ OPS+ (142) was higher than that of any of his comparables. Most of this is due to his freakish ability to get on base. Acknowledging that, here is how each of these players did from age 36 to the end of their careers.

Players Similar to Brian Giles through Age 35: The Aftermath
Name Years AB OPS+
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Bob Johnson 1942-1945 2042 141
Larry Doby N/A N/A N/A
Fred Lynn 1988-2000 940 104
Tim Salmon 2005-2006 211 113
Ryan Klesko N/A N/A N/A
Dante Bichette 2000-2001 966 103
Ellis Burks 2001-2004 1188 129
David Justice 2002 398 106
Paul O’Neill 1999-2001 1673 103
Ray Lankford 2003-2004 200 102

Johnson improved, but that was during World War II, when many of MLB’s best and brightest were serving their country and the talent pool was diluted. Doby, whose career started just after Johnson’s ended, played his final big-league game at age 35.

Lynn and Lankford are the names that Padres fans fear. Each of those fine players saw their skills erode almost completely while in San Diego.

Salmon, Klesko, and Justice all suffered injuries that caused each to miss significant time. Salmon didn’t play in his age 36 season, bounced back in a limited role the following year, and then retired. Klesko collected only a handful of at-bats in his age 35 season and it remains to be seen where he goes from here. Justice retired following his age 36 season due to injuries.

Bichette? He shows up on this list, but his complete inability to draw a walk makes him a terrible comp. Burks looks like a potentially good point of reference, but he never really faced the kind of dropoff that Giles has faced. The main similarity here is that both Burks and Giles are among the most underrated hitters of their time.

O’Neill probably is the most analogous hitter of this bunch, but except for 1994 (his and Giles’ age 31 season are eerily similar), he really is a poor man’s Giles. When O’Neill’s production dropped late in his career, it wasn’t from such great heights. The slope of his decline, in other words, was very gentle. As with Burks, there was no precipitous dropoff from which to rebound.

Having found no suitable comps from Giles’ age 35 list, I investigated further. One name that didn’t appear in the original list kept showing up in comps for previous ages: Moises Alou.

Alou was #1 on Giles’ list through age 28. He was #2 through age 29, #5 through age 30, #2 through age 31, #10 through age 32, #9 through age 33, and #10 through age 34. Suffice to say, their respective careers are more than a little analogous:

Moises Alou and Brian Giles, Age 31 – 35
Age Name OPS+ RC/27 ISO XB/H BB/SO
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
31 Alou 157 8.58 .270 .423 .966
Giles 173 10.07 .324 .541 1.824
32 Alou injured
Giles 148 7.94 .215 .408 1.810
33 Alou 151 9.86 .268 .373 1.156
Giles 126 6.34 .191 .364 1.113
34 Alou 138 8.25 .223 .347 1.000
Giles 148 7.41 .182 .372 1.859
35 Alou 100 5.05 .144 .293 .770
Giles 105 5.10 .131 .327 1.733

Despite missing his age 32 season, Alou followed a fairly unremarkable path: slight decline through age 34, then precipitous drop at age 35. Giles’ progression is a little less linear: steady drop, then slight rebound, then big drop.

Two things I find interesting here are the changes in strike zone judgment and in isolated power. Both players mostly maintained a constant BB/SO ratio throughout their mid-30s, with one notable exception in each case.

Giles experienced a severe drop at age 33 that accompanied a minor drop in overall production. In truth, though, it was no worse a drop than had occurred the previous season, without any real change to his BB/SO.

When Giles slumped at age 35, his plate discipline was only slightly worse than it had been at age 34 (and still very good by most standards). In other words, he still appeared to be recognizing pitches as well as ever; he just wasn’t able to do as much with the ones he actually atttempted to hit.

Alou’s game, on the other hand, pretty much deteriorated all at once. Like Giles, his power went into serious hibernation (although the slope wasn’t quite as steep); unlike Giles, however, Alou also gave ground in the plate discipline area.

Intuitively, we might expect such a broad decline of one’s offensive game at that age to be irreversible. But with Alou, at least, this hasn’t been the case:

Moises Alou, Age 36 – 39
Age OPS+ RC/27 ISO XB/H BB/SO
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
36 113 5.82 .182 .367 .940
37 128 7.44 .284 .443 .850
38 141 7.76 .197 .314 1.302
39 132 7.24 .270 .462 .903

Alou showed a slight rebound at age 36 in all aspects of his game, and has leveled off at a high (albeit not as high as during his prime) level from age 37 to 39. None of this, of course, is any guarantee that Giles will follow a similar path. It should, however, provide at least some hope to folks who are convinced he is the second coming of Lankford.

Friday Links (10 Nov 06)

by Geoff Young on Nov 10, 2006 (160) Comments

Geez, this is supposed to be the off-season. Busy, busy, busy…


  • Two articles in today’s U-T on Bud Black, formally introduced Thursday night as the Padres’ new manager: The Buddy system and Compromise or consensus, it’s Bud’s job. Interesting look at Black, as well as the process that led to his hiring.
  • Padres’ new manager is feeling ‘fabulous’ (North County Times). The usual stuff, plus a non-update on the Darren Balsley situation: “After speaking with Balsley on Wednesday, Black said he’s inclined to bring him back, although negotiations on a new contract remain in Towers’ hands.” Well, okay; let’s get it done, then.
  • 2006 All-OOPs Team (Baseball Analysts). Rich Lederer identifies the most overrated offensive players in 2006. Ex-Padre Jay Payton makes the list, while Josh Barfield merits an honorable mention.
  • Roster management and why it’s important (USS Mariner). Fascinating discussion on the nuances of building a big-league team. Very well thought out, plus it contains gems like, “This is why catchers with odd skillsets seem at times like fetish objects of the stathead community.”
  • Net Stolen Bases: Leaders and Laggards (Baseball Analysts). Who were the most efficient base stealers in 2006? Well, Dave Roberts led the National League, and as a team, the Padres were second to the Mets. Defensively, the Pads were, um — hey, would you look at that offense!
  • Gold Gloves by team? Interesting concept. Jeff at Lookout Landing identifies the Padres as the best defensive team in the big leagues. This makes for a nice companion piece to Chris Dial’s individual NL Gold Gloves from a couple weeks ago. We all know this already, but that really was a spectacular outfield last year.
  • Crunch on This (Dodger Thoughts, via Baseball Musings). Jon Weisman talks about the J.D. Drew incident. Drew, in case you missed it, opted out of his contract with the Dodgers, thus becoming a free agent. Apparently the Dodgers didn’t see this coming. The salient points for Padres fans are:
    1. Drew is a Scott Boras client, and the Pads just shipped the last one of those (Barfield) out of town, so forget it.
    2. I like Ned Coletti better as the Dodgers GM than Paul DePodesta. Of course, in a perfect world, they’d bring back Tommy Lasorda.
  • Chasing the Big Numbers 5 – Wins (Batters Box). How do some of today’s brightest young starting pitchers compare against the all-time greats at a similar stage in their careers? This piece is looking strictly at wins, but it’s an interesting read.
  • Evaluating Managers, Part 3 (Baseball Think Factory). Man, I’m behind on my reading. I’ve only had a chance to skim this one, but it promises to be a fun read. Chris Jaffe attempts to determine the influence different managers have on their team’s success. Bruce Bochy does well according to Jaffe’s methodology, placing 12th among 34 managers examined. Surprisingly, Dusty Baker shows up at #6. Jaffe goes into pretty good detail on several of the managers. Fun stuff.

I could go on, but I’m out of time. Is it spring training yet?

Black Named Manager, Barfield Dealt to Cleveland

by Geoff Young on Nov 08, 2006 (135) Comments

Pretty uneventful day, huh? Somehow I get the feeling “uneventful” is not a word that will ever be used to describe Sandy Alderson’s tenure with the Padres. And it’s nice to see that Kevin Towers isn’t content to rest on any laurels after receiving a contract extension.

You might want to sit down for this one. We’re going to be here a while tonight.

Back in Black

So, the Padres made a decision on their next manager. Bud Black gets the call over Trey Hillman and, let us all breathe a huge sigh of relief, Dusty Baker.

Black played at SDSU with Tony Gwynn in 1978 and 1979, and enjoyed a fine big-league career, winning 121 games over parts of 15 seasons. Since 2000, he’s served as pitching coach for the Angels, where he helped develop the likes of Jarrod Washburn, John Lackey, and Francisco Rodriguez.

According to his Angels bio, Black hasn’t managed at any level. How much does that matter? Eh, the difference between “has fresh ideas” and “lacks experience” is about the same as that between winning and losing.

Honestly, I would have been perfectly happy with either Black or Hillman (Blez at Athletics Nation likes both as well). I’m just glad the decision has been made and we can get on with life.

Who Moved My Barfield?

I’m a huge Josh Barfield fan. I’ve been covering him at Ducksnorts since July 2, 2001. After his monstrous 2003 season, I geeked out big time on the kid. No, I mean really big time.

Heck, one of the key chapters in the book I’m writing focuses on an improbable walk-off home run he hit just over two months ago. I made T-shirts because of that homer (get ‘em now; soon, like Barfield, they’ll be gone forever!).

None of this, of course, is a compelling reason not to deal Barfield. I can be sad to see him go but also acknowledge that, from an organizational standpoint, moving him for a third baseman makes sense.

The one concern I have is that in filling one hole, the Padres are opening another. This is mitigated to a large extent, I believe, by the fact that second base should be a much easier hole to fill than third base has proven to be over the past few years (Sean Burroughs, we salute you!).

Case in point, here are this winter’s free agent second basemen of note, along with how they did in 2006:

  • Ronnie Belliard: Age 31, .272/.322/.403 — solid, unspectacular; about on the same level as Barfield, obviously without projectability
  • Mark DeRosa: Age 31, .296/.357/.456 — flukish season aided by home park; useful talent but could be overvalued
  • Ray Durham: Age 34, .293/.360/.538 — had a career year, but he’s been extremely consistent over most of the past decade
  • Adam Kennedy: Age 30, .273/.334/.384 — not many secondary offensive skills; good defensive reputation
  • Mark Loretta: Age 35, .285/.345/.361 — on downside of career; previously enjoyed success in San Diego

This doesn’t include guys like Atlanta’s Brian Marcus Giles, or the Padres’ own Todd Walker. So, really, we’re looking at five relatively useful guys, one of whom (Durham) stands out a bit from the others.

And here are the third basemen:

  • Rich Aurilia: Age 35, .300/.349/.518 — enjoyed second best season ever since career year in 2001; with four seasons of extreme mediocrity in between, someone else can pay to see whether he’ll repeat or revert
  • David Bell: Age 34, .270/.337/.399 — we’ve had enough third basemen in San Diego who can’t crack a .400 SLG, thank you
  • Pedro Feliz: Age 31, .244/.281/.428 — can’t get on base
  • Aubrey Huff: Age 29, .267/.344/.469 — decent option who will be overpaid due to lack of competition
  • Aramis Ramirez: Age 28, .291/.352/.561 — opted out of an $11M deal with the Cubs; hint: he doesn’t expect to make less this year

Japan’s Akinori Iwamura is also available. So, here we’ve got one guy who will break the bank (Ramirez), one who should do pretty well for himself (Huff), and three who should scare the heck out of you and me.

In short, there are more options at second than there are at third, and none should cost so much as to prohibit bringing in a legitimate power hitter to play left field and/or a big-name starting pitcher.

[Brief pause for hot chocolate]

Kouzmanoff? Gesundheit!

For their troubles, the Padres received Kevin Kouzmanoff (pronounced kooz-MAHN-off) and minor-league right-hander Andrew Brown. Peter Friberg has profiled Kouzmanoff quite nicely at Padres Run Down. Basically he’s a 25-year-old hitting machine. His minor-league numbers are impressive, to say the least. Yes, he’s a tad old, but so were Mike Lowell, Bill Mueller, and Phil Nevin when they got their big-league careers started.

Baseball Think Factory’s Dan Symborski likes the deal for the Padres from a talent standpoint (he compares Barfield to Rennie Stennett; I think Orlando Hudson is a better comp) but cites the aforementioned hole it creates at second base as a negative. Symborski’s ZiPS projection system tabs Kouzmanoff as a .279/.334/.452 hitter. Sure, I’ll take one of those.

Between Kouzmanoff and Russell Branyan, the Padres should be in pretty good shape at the hot corner for the first time since Nevin played there.

Big Picture

The Padres still have holes to fill. But that was the case even before they moved Barfield for Kouzmanoff (and Brown). In making this deal, they’ve just shifted the nature of one of those holes, presumably making it easier to fill.

I hate to see Barfield leave. And I have concerns about the perception among some fans (mostly the ones I hear on the drive-time sports talk shows) that the Padres somehow aren’t trying to improve themselves through this and other moves. I don’t know if it’s a general misunderstanding of Moneyball, fueled in part by some members of the media who maybe can’t (or won’t) figure it out themselves, but I hear a lot of negativity about the direction Alderson, Towers, and company are headed. I don’t think it’s very well founded.

But never mind what I think. Just let me know the last time the Padres had three straight winning seasons. Or the last time they reached the playoffs in back-to-back years.

Alderson talks about the Padres teaching their young hitters to be aggressive, with judgment. He mentioned on the radio Wednesday afternoon that he holds the front office to that same standard. Dealing Barfield for Kouzmanoff and Brown is consistent with this philosophy. Does it upset fans from time to time? Yes, probably so. We all get comfortable with what we know. But there’s a difference between being comfortable and being great. And when push comes to shove, as a fan of this team, I’m glad that the guys running the show appear to be more interest in greatness than in comfort. As for those of us who find change difficult, rest assured, we’ll feel better when this team becomes great.

Towers Stays, Roberts Not So Much

by Geoff Young on Nov 08, 2006 (100) Comments

While we’re waiting for the Padres to name a manager, there’s plenty else to keep us occupied. First, GM Kevin Towers’ option has been picked up through 2008. Love him or hate him, he’ll be with the Padres for a couple more years.

Remember all the talk about Sandy Alderson’s presence as CEO being a sign that Towers was on his way out? Of course you do, because it’s been going on since the day Alderson arrived in San Diego. From Alderson himself:

I’ve been saying for a year and half that people should not jump to conclusions or try to anticipate what might happen. This is part of a structure that we’re trying to create, and there’s no reason that Kevin and most other member of the organization can’t be part of what we have going forward.

Yeah, but reality isn’t nearly as much fun as a conspiracy theory.

The other “news” (which isn’t really, because we’ve known about this, or at least anticipated it, for a very long time) is that the Padres are making no effort to re-sign left fielder Dave Roberts. Instead, the club is focusing its efforts on getting some much-needed help for the middle of the lineup.

Look, Roberts has been the catalyst of two division winners, and he’s been orders of magnitude more valuable than I imagined possible when the Pads acquired him from Boston in December 2004, but the guy turns 35 in May and is coming off two career years. Check this out:

Dave Roberts: Here, There, and Everywhere
  AB BA OBP SLG XB/H
with Padres 910 .285 .358 .409 .270
elsewhere 1294 .259 .335 .344 .206

Roberts had more extra base hits (70) in two seasons with the Padres than he’d had in his entire career (69) leading up to his tenure in San Diego. I’m grateful for what he’s done here, and I hope he’s able to swing a sweet deal based on his performance in 2005 and 2006. But in all honesty, Roberts strikes me as one of the more likely candidates to be overpaid commensurate to his actual value this off-season.

Even at his very best, Roberts is a 35-year-old left fielder (not a center fielder, as we all learned in 2005) with a 767 OPS. Is there room for a player like that on the Padres? At the right price, I think there is.

At the right price, the Pads have a guy named Terrmel Sledge on the roster. Am I suggesting that Sledge is a long-term (or even short-term) solution in left field? No. What I’m acknowledging, and what I believe the Padres recognize as well, is that left field is a position that needs to carry a little more offense than Roberts, even at his best, could provide. In other words, Roberts shouldn’t be starting for the Padres in 2007.

Assuming the Padres are able to bring in someone with pop (Carlos Lee?), Roberts, if he remained, likely would be relegated to fourth outfielder status. How much would you be willing to pay a fourth outfielder? Given what other teams are likely to offer Roberts, would that be enough? And would Roberts be happy, after having been the full-time leadoff hitter for two seasons, in a reduced role?

Sledge, on the other hand, is 5 years younger than Roberts. His career OPS is 775, higher than Roberts’ OPS with the Padres the past two years. Again, we’re not necessarily talking about an everyday player, but if the role you’re looking to fill isn’t that of a starter, then is Sledge really a worse option than Roberts? Even without the difference in salary, I’d say the answer is no. Once you factor in the money, it’s pretty clear that the advantage belongs to Sledge.

Of course, whatever happens, someone will need to manage these guys…

Managerial Non-Update

by Geoff Young on Nov 07, 2006 (36) Comments

Sorry for the lack of managerial coverage — I’ve been dedicating almost all of my time to the book lately (hope you’re enjoying the excerpts). Here’s a recap of where we’re at and what’s next for the Padres in their search for Bruce Bochy’s replacement:

  • All six candidates (Dusty Baker, Bud Black, Trey Hillman, Jose Oquendo, Tim Wallach, Ron Wotus) have been interviewed. Kevin Towers has said that he expects to have a decision made by Thursday or Friday.
  • Mike Cameron has vouched for Baker, despite never having played for the man. This fascinates me to the point of speechlessness. Quoth Cameron: “How can you not respect a guy who played with Hank Aaron?” Man’s got a point; after all, Denny McClain played with Aaron in ’72.
  • Bobby Valentine, who has led teams in North America and in Japan to championships, says that Hillman would be a “very good choice” for the Padres. Valentine notes that managing in Japan “is even harder in some ways than managing in the States,” citing the intense media scrutiny on that side of the Pacific. Hillman also has strong ties to Padres vice president of scouting and development Grady Fuson, who in 2002 hired Hillman as the Rangers’ director of player development. Prior to that, Hillman had managed in the Yankees system, being named top manager in the organization on three separate occasions. Hillman also is in the running for the A’s managerial vacancy and was under consideration for the Rangers’ job before they decided on Ron Washington. Needless to say, Hillman is in demand. The Padres have conducted two interviews with the guy, and if were a betting man, I’d say that the Pads’ next manager will be him or Black.
  • Tim Sullivan at the San Diego Union-Tribune has gone so far as to handicap the race, picking Baker as the 3-1 favorite. Sullivan acknowledges Baker’s many shortcomings and then talks about his popularity among players and the fact that he might influence Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez to sign with the Padres. Sullivan likes Hillman at 4-1 and Black at 5-1. I would be happy with either of those latter two.
  • Black played with Tony Gwynn at SDSU and lives here in town. He has done nothing to hide his enthusiasm for the job opening. Gwynn previously indicated a belief in Black’s ability to manage at the big-league level despite his lack of experience.

Next up for the Padres, according to Brian Hiro at the North County Times, Kevin Towers is scheduled to meet with Sandy Alderson on Tuesday to recommend two finalists for the job. Hiro’s article also cites Black and Hillman as favorites.

And, having nothing to do with managerial talks, Hiro also mentions (as covered earlier by Tom Krasovic in the U-T) the issues in working out a deal with pitching coach Darren Balsley. Seems Balsley’s hiring of an agent to represent him in negotations may have thrown Towers for a loop. Why this would cause Towers concern remains a mystery. All I know is that Balsley is the one coach the Padres can’t afford to lose. He’s been working with the likes of Jake Peavy since their days together at Class-A Lake Elsinore, and he seems to have a real good rapport with the veterans as well. Regardless of whether “rapport” is sufficient reason to retain a big-league coach, the results speak for themselves and it’d be a big mistake to let Balsley walk.

So, this is the plan. Get a manager not named Baker and keep Balsley. Then turn attention to free agents. Works for me; how about you?

Ducksnorts Book Excerpt: 2006 Game of the Year: Barfield Homers into the Night

by Geoff Young on Nov 06, 2006 (41) Comments

Ducksnorts Book Project 2007 The following excerpt is taken from the upcoming Ducksnorts book, tentatively scheduled for February 2007 publication. This is part of a chapter that focuses on the Padres’ 7-5 victory over the Rockies on September 4, 2006, at Petco Park, courtesy of a three-run homer off the bat of rookie second baseman Josh Barfield with two outs in the bottom of the ninth.

It’s a warm September evening in San Diego and the Padres are fighting for their second straight trip to the playoffs. At 76 degrees, with an 11-mph wind blowing across the Petco Park field from left to right, it’s hard to imagine more ideal conditions for a baseball game.

The Padres will play 25 more games this season, including tonight’s against the Colorado Rockies, who are out of contention but who feature a collection of good young hitters that makes them dangerous on any given night. The Padres are 3 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West and 1 1/2 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies in the wild card race entering Monday night’s contest. Although the Padres have won three straight and five out of six, they haven’t been able to gain ground on the Dodgers, who have made several late-season acquisitions and who appear to be on the verge of pulling away from the rest of the division.

On the bright side for the Padres, this recent six-game stretch has pushed them into the wild card lead. As recently as August 28, they had found themselves looking up in that race as well (1/2 game behind the Cincinnati Reds).

Tonight, veteran Woody Williams takes the mound for the home team. After Williams finishes his warm-up tosses, plate umpire Bob Davidson calls for the stadium lights to be turned on. It’s a bit puzzling since the sky is still light and the sun won’t set for a few more minutes, but Davidson is a veteran umpire (he worked the 1998 NLCS between the Padres and the Atlanta Braves), so presumably he has a good reason. Unfortunately, because he waits until after Williams has finished his warm-ups, the start of the game is delayed several minutes while the lights are fired up. Padres television commentators Matt Vasgersian and Tony Gwynn note that Williams likes to get the ball and throw it, and express concern that the delay might disrupt his rhythm.

Once the lights finally come on, Rockies leadoff batter Jamey Carroll steps up to the plate. Carroll, a journeyman utility infielder, is enjoying unprecedented success at age 32 and has played his way into the everyday second base job. He is a pesky hitter who takes pitches, fouls them off, gets on base, and generally makes the opposing pitcher work hard. Tonight is no exception, as he draws a six-pitch leadoff walk from Williams.

Next up is first baseman Todd Helton. Predecessor to Peyton Manning as quarterback at the University of Tennessee, successor to Andres “The Big Cat” Galarraga as the Rockies’ first baseman, and former Padres draft pick (2nd round, 1992, didn’t sign), Helton once was one of the most feared power hitters in the National League, pounding 30 or more home runs in each season from 1999 through 2004. It wasn’t just the power, though, as Helton had a .320 or better batting average in each of those seasons, clearing the .340 mark in three of them. In 2000 and 2001, he actually collected more than 100 extra base hits in consecutive seasons.

Helton has enjoyed a brilliant career, and yet for all his accomplishments, he’s never finished higher than fifth in the MVP voting. This could be due to the fact that he plays half his games at Coors Field in Denver, which inflates offensive performance; that he plays first base, an “easy” position; or that MVP voters don’t always know what they’re doing (plenty of examples of this exist throughout history — Joe DiMaggio over Ted Williams in 1941, Dick Groat over Willie Mays in 1960, Ichiro Suzuki over any number of people in 2001). In Helton’s case, the reason was far less insidious — although he always was among the best players in the league, he never was the best in any particular season.

That said, Helton was a great hitter in his prime and still is a very good hitter as he steps to the plate now, at age 32 and entering the decline phase of his career. He still does everything well, just not as well as he did five years ago. Helton is not a batter to be taken lightly, and on the first offering from Williams, he demonstrates exactly why.

The pitch is an 87-mph fastball out over the plate, just above the belt. Padres catcher Josh Bard is set up down and away but Williams leaves the ball way up and Helton hammers it into the first row of seats behind and just to the right of the auxiliary scoreboard in left-center field. Helton has spent much of his career batting in the heart of the order because of his power; now he is in the #2 hole to take advantage of his strong on-base skills. On this swing, however, he looks like the Helton of old, driving a tough pitch (replays show that it may not have been a strike) out of the park to the opposite field.

Helton’s blast gives the Rockies an early 2-0 lead. It is his 14th home run of the year, and the first Williams has allowed in the first inning of a game all season. The Padres pitcher has thrown seven pitches and recorded zero outs. Concerns about his rhythm appear to have been well founded.

Third baseman Garrett Atkins is up next for Colorado. Atkins is following a strong rookie campaign with an even better sophomore season. He hits for average, hits for power, and understands the strike zone. In other words, he’s not the kind of batter you want to fall behind in the count to, which is exactly what Williams does.

With the count 3-1, a hitter can afford to look for a particular pitch, most likely a fastball because that is generally the easiest to throw for a strike (which the pitcher wants to do because issuing walks is bad — if the batter is going to reach base at least make him hit your pitch). Unfortunately, when your fastball barely touches 90 mph, as Williams’ does, it’s hard to sneak the pitch past a hitter, especially one as skilled as Atkins.

Williams winds up and proceeds to make probably his worst pitch of the young evening, delivering an 88-mph fastball down the middle, belt high. Again, Bard is set up at the knees, and again, Williams misses up in the zone with a pitch that Atkins should punish. Fortunately for Williams and the Padres, Atkins pulls off the ball and pops up to first baseman Todd Walker, who makes the catch just steps in front of the home dugout. Finally, Williams has his first out of the game.

Baker Added to Managerial Mix; Padres Sign Minor-League Free Agents

by Geoff Young on Nov 03, 2006 (81) Comments

As you probably know by now, Dusty Baker will interview for the Padres managerial vacancy on Monday. Considering Baker brings a lot of the same things to the table that the departed Bruce Bochy did, this doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Okay, actually it doesn’t make any sense to me.

David Pinto thinks “it’s simply a diversity interview” and he may be right. Like Bochy, Baker has a reputation as a good motivator of players, favors veterans, and will come with a hefty price tag. For a team that is said to be looking for “somebody who’s open-minded to new ways of doing things,” Baker wouldn’t seem to be the best fit.

I don’t know; right now this just seems weird more than anything else. It’s only an interview. If something comes of it and Baker actually ends up landing the job, we may have to throw a serious hissy fit or, at the very least, hide Jake Peavy and Chris Young. For now, though, we’ll just watch and see what the Pads do.

What’s more interesting to me (because my mind works in strange ways) are the minor-league free agents nabbed by the Padres. In the North County Times article referenced in the opening paragraph, Brian Hiro notes that Brian Myrow, Royce Huffman, Adam Shabala, Frank Brooks, Adrian Burnside, and Ryan Ketchner have been signed by the Pads. According to Hiro, Brooks and Burnside are expected to contend for a bullpen spot, while Shabala could stick as a reserve outfielder.

Myrow is a 29-year-old corner infielder with a career .424 OBP in over 2100 minor-league at-bats. He’s also got some pop (.498 SLG). Played in 19 games with the Dodgers in 2005 and spent last season in the Boston organization, mostly on the DL.

Huffman, who will be 30 next year, is the older brother of Padres 2006 second-round pick Chad Huffman. Like Myrow, Huffman gets on base (.385 OBP in 3400+ minor-league AB) but doesn’t hit for quite the power (.431 SLG). He’s primarily a first baseman, although he did see some action at second and short, as well as behind the plate, for Round Rock in 2006.

Shabala is a 29-year-old outfielder who has — say it with me — decent on-base skills (.358 OBP in 2400+ minor-league AB) and marginal power (.415 SLG). He’s spent each of the past three seasons with the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate in Fresno. Made it into six games with the big club in 2005.

Brooks is a 28-year-old left-hander who had a cup of coffee with the Pirates in 2004, and maybe a lump of sugar in Atlanta the following season. His minor-league record is undistinguished, and I’m getting tired of writing about these guys. They all seem about the same to me.

Burnside is like Brooks, only he’ll be 30 next year and he has yet to reach the big leagues. Burnside hails from Australia.

Ketchner, yet another left-hander, turns 25 in April (a baby!) and actually has posted some decent numbers in the minors. He had a real nice season in the California League at age 21 while a member of the Seattle Mariners organization, then was dealt to the Dodgers. Oh, wow; he’s deaf. Ketchner also has had elbow troubles in the past. Man, I’m glad I didn’t give up here. I was getting pretty bored with all these non-descript guys approaching 30, but Ketchner’s is a great story. How can you not like having him in the organization? Very cool. I know I’ll be pulling for him.