Remembering Gwynn’s 3000th Hit
Mon, Dec 11, 2006
by Geoff Young
Before we get to the topic at hand, I’d just like to offer congratulations to the Chargers for winning the AFC West and to LaDainian Tomlinson for scoring three more touchdowns on Sunday to break the all-time single-season mark. Tomlinson is a pleasure to watch and represents the city of San Diego well.
Speaking of guys who fit that description, let’s talk a little today about Tony Gwynn. As you know, this is his first year of eligibility for the Hall of Fame, and the smart money says he’ll get in on the first attempt.
One of the things I’m planning to include in the book is a look back on Gwynn’s 3000th hit, and I’d like your help. What are some of your memories of that game or that time in general?
Here are two of mine:
- Gwynn hugging first-base umpire Kerwin Danley, a former college teammate.
- Me estimating when Gwynn would get the hit and buying tickets in right field for an entire homestand; Gwynn landing on the DL and me watching a lot of Mike Darr.
How about you?
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
December 11, 2006 at 8:10 am
I was standing in the sports book of the MGM Grand in Las Vegas…When TG rounds first and hugs Kerwin, I raised my arms and hugged the cocktail waitress.
The other thing I remember was how few people were in the stands in Montreal. I thought to myself how sad, but fitting since TG played in front of crowds like that in SD for a large chunk of his career.
December 11, 2006 at 8:22 am
I remember the atmosphere reminding me of anything but a baseball game. There was nobody there, and the people that were there were more interested in their own deal (remember those last years in Montreal when you’d constantly hear whistles and bullhorns from the crowd like it was being played in a 3rd world country?) than the history in front of them. I was pretty miserable for a few minutes there that he wasn’t able to do it in San Diego (I had season tickets) where we would’ve been standing and cheering for hours.
December 11, 2006 at 8:35 am
I remember thinking how badly Tony must have wanted to get that 3,000th hit out of the way to play in Montreal, which had the worst turf in the world. I can imagine him paraphrasing Indiana Jones: “Montreal. Why did it have to be Montreal?” Then his right knee going “Oh no you DIDN’T say Montreal!”
I’m glad Kerwin and Bochy were there. Even Flannery. Links to Tony’s younger days. He had some history with some of his 99 teammates, but there were still some awkward congratulations from the half of the team who had known him only a few months.
December 11, 2006 at 8:38 am
I remember his Mother being there to congratulate him. I’ve always thought of Tony as that sort of guy: family, responsible, loyal. Having his Mom come out on the field to congratulate him sort of embodied that for me.
December 11, 2006 at 8:52 am
I realize this is OT, but how about LT and them Chargers!!!
December 11, 2006 at 9:04 am
Didn’t he get #’s 3000 & 2000 on his Mother’s birthday? That is awesome.
December 11, 2006 at 9:22 am
Didn’t he get a kidney stone on that road trip? I remember some kind of malady like that on the trip. Maybe is was at another point in the year.
December 11, 2006 at 10:02 am
Since I wasn’t one of the 347 people in attendance that day I don’t have any real memories of the hit other than seeing everyone giving him congrat’s on TV but I was lucky enough to get to see TG’s final game and Ricky Henderson’s 3,000th hit that is something I will never forget. It was a really cool ceremony for a guy who reresented nothing but class in San Diego for over 20 years.
December 11, 2006 at 10:13 am
I wasn’t there, and due to no mlb.com and no DirecTV, unable to watch it live, though I was dying for the highlights.
On the subject of Gwynn, and in light of LT’s accomplishment, I’m wondering how everyone would rank the luminaries of SD sports. Rank by your own personal preference.
Mine:
1. LT
2. Gwynn
3. Hoffman
4. Fouts
5. Winslow Sr.
(note: leaving out San Diegans who played elsewhere for the pro careers like Teddy Ballgame)
There’s a yellow pages-worth of guys left off there, but limiting it to a Top 5 “Pantheon”, that’s my list.
December 11, 2006 at 10:14 am
re 9 - maybe Seau instead of Winslow Sr. In fact, I should have done that. Where’s that edit key?
December 11, 2006 at 10:15 am
Great question, Clayton. Here’s mine:
1. Gwynn
2. Tomlinson
3. Hoffman
4. Fouts/Winslow (can’t think of one without the other)
5. Seau
December 11, 2006 at 10:36 am
Hmm…
1. Tomlinson
2. Gwynn
3. Hoffman
4. Seau
5. Caminiti
Limiting it to players I actually got to see made it difficult to pick five. I almost went with Rodney Harrison as I was always a big fan.
December 11, 2006 at 10:44 am
Trying to do it by free association, I end up with:
1. Gwynn
2. Hoffman
3. LT
4. Fouts
5. Winslow, Sr.
While Seau was great for San Diego and a hometown guy, I can’t bring myself to put him on the list.
December 11, 2006 at 10:48 am
How about list of anti’s…
1. Ryan Leaf
2. Eli Manning
3. Bruce Henderson
4. Barry Bonds
5. Kellen Winslow Jr.
5.
December 11, 2006 at 10:48 am
Yeah where’s that edit button?
December 11, 2006 at 11:12 am
KRS1
Don’t forget about Tom Werner. Nothing against Lucchino and Epstein, but I rooted against the 2004 Red Sox just so that cheap skate wouldn’t enjoy the fruits of a World Series championship.
December 11, 2006 at 12:03 pm
16.
Good call!
December 11, 2006 at 12:17 pm
Anti? Hmmm, interesting…
1. Ryan Leaf
(big gap)
2. Bruce Henderson
3. Tom Werner
4. Eli Manning/Hideki Irabu (both ended up helping the home team by refusing to play here)
5. Ruben Rivera
December 11, 2006 at 1:06 pm
Pro:
1. Gwynn
2. LT
3. Seau
4. Hoffy
5. Faulk (SDSU)
Anti:
1. Leaf
2. Manning
3. Henderson
4. Stalling
5. Golding
December 11, 2006 at 1:10 pm
18.
I used to really hate Ruben Rivera too but ever since he stole Derek Jeter’s glove from the locker room, tried to sell it and got BUSTED whenever I hear (or read) his name I just can’t help but get the biggest smile!
December 11, 2006 at 1:45 pm
Sounds like the Braves will likely non-tender Marcus Giles.
I imagine we’d have to be the favorite to land him.
December 11, 2006 at 2:09 pm
21: That would be pretty cool. I like Todd Walker the bench player a lot more than I like Todd Walker the starting second baseman.
December 11, 2006 at 2:26 pm
On a totally unrelated note, my Bill James Handbook just arrived — the projections for Kouzmanoff are off the charts: .317/.378/.546. That’s a better OPS than is projected for Aramis, so take with appropriate buckets of salt…
December 11, 2006 at 2:31 pm
23: Holy ****. That’s a little overly optimistic. How does James arrive at his projections again?
December 11, 2006 at 2:33 pm
24: PECOTA’s weighted mean projection for 2007 (made prior to 2006, mind you) had him batting .265/.312/.420.
December 11, 2006 at 2:43 pm
#24: Not sure. The pitching projections, which James is careful to distance himself from, are also fascinating. I’d love to see Hensley finish second in the NL in ERA (3.28, behind only Smoltz at 3.17), but that seems a bit much to ask.
Some other key projections:
Bard: .283/.348/434
Gonzalez: .287/.345/.473
Walker: .280/.349/.423
Greene: .261/.326/.437
Sledge: .274/.350/.462
Cruz: .242/.345/.427
Cameron: .250/.343/.446
Giles: .283/.401/.464
Gonzalez and Cameron seem a tad pessimistic, Sledge seems a tad optimistic, and I’ll be thrilled if Giles does that.
December 11, 2006 at 2:55 pm
Who developed PECOTA?
December 11, 2006 at 2:57 pm
If the lowest OBP is .326 and the lowest SLG is .423, I’ll be pretty happy.
December 11, 2006 at 2:58 pm
27: Nate Silver
December 11, 2006 at 3:04 pm
Good News Peter, you don’t have to update your PRD screen. Just change the date for a second go-round!
December 11, 2006 at 3:19 pm
If Marcus Giles is waived by the Braves, does that mean the contract is void or do the Braves still have to pay him?
December 11, 2006 at 3:46 pm
Didi…Right now, his contract remains under control of the Braves because he has not played 6-Years in MLB, so they can tender a contract to him and he remains under their control. However, if Marcus is “Non-Tendered”, meaning that they don’t offer him a contract for 2007, he becomes a free agent, able to negotiate with anyone, thus releasing the Braves of any future obligations.
December 11, 2006 at 3:55 pm
I would love the “normal” skinned Giles as a free agent and moving Walker to a utility role with Blum. I have a feeling that he would/will cost a little more than the Front Office might want to pay for a 2nd baseman though. Who knows but it could be interesting!
December 11, 2006 at 4:05 pm
Thanks, Coronado Mike, for the explanation. I hope the Padres get him.
Under this heading: “Giles suffers a woeful weekend” is this link:
http://sport.guardian.co.uk/as.....20,00.html
with a mention of poor bat, ball and in the field. Thankfully, it’s not that Giles.
December 11, 2006 at 4:13 pm
I’d love to see if Marcus Giles could rebound in a Padres uni, but I don’t think the Pads would pay Todd Walker $3 million (estimated figure in U-T) to back up Giles, Kouz and Gonzalez.
December 11, 2006 at 4:16 pm
That projected lineup sure looks a hell of a lot better without a .232/.260/.319 (Castilla in ‘06 with the Padres) stuck in there. How many runs/wins better is that lineup, maybe with a toned down projection for Kouzmanoff, than last year’s?
December 11, 2006 at 4:22 pm
re: Gwynn’s 3000th hit … I wasn’t there, but I do have a ticket for the game! I forget how/where I got the idea, but after Gwynn got the hit, I simply called the Expos’ ticket office and bought a ticket with my credit card and they mailed it to me … and I’m gonna try to get him to autograph it at the HOF induction next summer! I’m not a big autograph fan, but that seems like a cool combo …
December 11, 2006 at 4:23 pm
Geoff, I didn’t see the game but did listen to Jerry on the radio.
I was planning to get tickets in the last minute of that home-stand. Being short on cash and wanting to get a good seat just for that game far reason enough to stay put until he got close to 3000 hits. Wasn’t he stuck at 2,990 hits for longer than anticipated? I bought a couple of tickets to Houston games and he went hitless in those two games.
Then, the anticipation of, maybe, his getting the 3000th hit in St. Louis, and how deserving of him to get the accolade there, a good baseball town and all, was amazing. Everybody seems to root for it to happen there if not San Diego. Of course, aptly, it happened in Montreal, where nobody goes to see baseball just like during all those apathetic years in San Diego.
What I remember the most was when his mother came to the field to give him a hug.
A friend of mine managed to get a hold of 10 or so tickets to that game online with the purpose of getting them signed and then cashing them. I don’t think he ever cashed out on those, nor got them signed.
December 11, 2006 at 4:28 pm
Thanks for all the recollections, folks. For some reason I don’t remember Tony’s mom coming out onto the field. That’s very cool.
LM: You rock. It never would’ve occurred to me to call up and get a ticket after the fact. That is thinking outside the box.
December 11, 2006 at 4:42 pm
re: SD sports luminaries… a sign of my advanced age, but in addition to the guys you folks mentioned, I thought of the undisputed SD sports star of the sixties…. Lance Alworth.
December 11, 2006 at 5:17 pm
re 36: According to the Lineup Analysis tool available at Baseball Musings, using the 1959-2004 model a lineup of
Giles
Walker
Bard
Gonzalez
Kouzmanoff
Sledge
Cameron
Greene
Pitcher (with average 2006 Padre hitting numbers)
, using Bill James projections for the rest, would score 5.095 runs per game.
You can run models yourself, using different projections and lineups. The model favors the best hitters hitting earlier in the lineup than traditional lineups - I tried to go with a semi-traditional lineup.
December 11, 2006 at 5:52 pm
830 runs would be pretty nice. Those projections seem too optimistic, though.
December 11, 2006 at 6:50 pm
Re: 41 I think in I would switch Bard and Cameron and call it good.
December 11, 2006 at 6:51 pm
Here’s a link to a blog in the Atlanta Journal Constitution re: FSG (fair skinned Giles).
http://www.ajc.com/blogs/conte.....e_tue.html
I’ve gotta believe we’re the favorites to land him. I’d be moderately excited if we did. A whole lot more excited than getting someone like Graffanino.
26: Love the projections — Kouz’s is great. I’d take that line from Sledge, too!
Re: Gwynn’s 3,000:
I was at home watching highlights. Doesn’t sound like much, but I did get a little welled up. You know the feeling — someone that you’ve been following for a long time, does something great. Wish I could have been there.
December 11, 2006 at 7:23 pm
I was a big Chargers fan in the early 1980s, just because they were the most exciting team. (I’m from North Carolina.)
Here’s my top five:
1. Gwynn
2. LT
3. Seau
4. Hoffman
5. Winslow
It’s hard to rate them on their resume, without considering their mythic quality. For example, Winslow has The Game, while Seau doesn’t have such things.
40:
Great point about Alworth. Dr. Z usually has him on his all-time team when he picks one. Which means he was the best at his position, putting him in LT/Hoffman company.
December 11, 2006 at 9:35 pm
I was in college w/ one year left and doing my internship at Enterprise Rent-A-Car (glamorous huh?), and was taking a car from one office to another. Gwynn got his 3000th in the first inning (I think) and when I got to the office I mentioned off-handedly (I wasn’t sure if the other guys were baseball fans) that Tony just got #3000. Two senior guys just turned to another intern and cussed him out for not having the radio on. I felt sorry for the guy but it was funny…
I’ve been saying all along that Kouzy would hit from day 1. James’ projections are higher than mine though (but his are scientific, mine are seat-of-the-pants) .285/.350/.490
December 11, 2006 at 9:49 pm
46: Similar to averaging Pecota’s projection with James’: .291/.345/.483
December 11, 2006 at 9:50 pm
Your projection of IsoD is actually higher than James’.
December 11, 2006 at 10:00 pm
Kouzmanoff’s ZiPS projection is .279/.334/.452.
Average of the three projections: .287/.341/.473
December 12, 2006 at 3:13 am
Just cuz I was bored and this conversation got me interested, who provided the greatest season (hitting-wise) in the team’s history. From a purely statistical standpoint, I think:
1. Caminiti in ‘96 - .326, .408 obp, .621 slg, 130 rbi
2. Nevin ‘01 (unbelievable, i know) - .308, .388, .588, 126 rbi
3. Winfield ‘79 - .308, .395, .558, 118 rbi
Honorables:
Only cuz I don’t know where to place Tony’s ‘87: .370, .447, .511, 56 SB
Sheffield ‘92 (triple crown year if not for the wrist) - .330, .385, .580, 100 rbi
look about right? maybe gwynn could slide into number 2?
December 12, 2006 at 6:01 am
Shandler’s projections for Kouz were pretty solid too. I don’t have the book in front of me, but he said he’s among the best young power hitters.
Shandler also sees:
* a rebound to ‘05 for Marcus Giles
* Bard’s continuing success (BA, not power)
* Todd Walker’s decline
* Gonzalez duplicating his ‘06 with a little more power
* Sledge being fairly useless
* Orange Giles recouping some of his BA (.300), but his power not coming back
December 12, 2006 at 7:08 am
I wanna’ play.
Top 5:
1. Gwynn
2. RJ
3. Fouts
4. Hoffman
5. Winfield
As for great Padres seasons, OPS+ has Caminiti’s 96 at the top, but Tony’s 94 is second and might be worth looking at more closely. It won’t have the counting stats, of course, but a .394/.454/.568 line is not too shabby for 110 games.
Also, Vaughn’s big year, 98, was pretty impressive. 112 R, 28 2B, 50 HR, 119 RBI, .272/.363/.597 and an OPS+ 0f 158 (he was also 11 of 15 in SB).
December 12, 2006 at 8:30 am
#39: You know what, I could be wrong, Geoff. Maybe she didn’t come onto the field. Memory is a tricky thing.
I supposed I should check old articles. Will let you know.
December 12, 2006 at 1:57 pm
Can someone refresh his hit for me? I wanna say he either lined it over vidro at second, but for some reason i keep thinkin he just smacked it off the concrete floor and bounced it over the infield……either way, i just remember bein shocked his 3,000th wasnt knocked thru the 5.5 hole, like 2,500 of his other hits
December 14, 2006 at 8:12 pm
I’m a couple days late on this….but to answer #54…it was like a bloop over 2nd base…not exactly a line drive which seemed like it would’ve been fitting.
Although I think he hit it a bit harder than the ball Rickey blooped down the right field line for his #3000