Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

The good folks at Hardball Times have been kind enough to invite me onboard, and my first article — Taking Advantage of Petco Park — has just been published. Have a look, then come back here and discuss. Or talk about other stuff — whatever works for you.

Update @ 7:29 a.m. PT: Okay, I swear it was up there when I posted this. I’m looking into what happened; meantime the U-T has an article this morning about the possibility of bringing Giles the Younger to San Diego.

Update @ 7:53 a.m. PT: The THT article is back online; sorry for the trouble, folks, and thanks to everyone for bringing this to my attention.

Before we get to the topic at hand, I’d just like to offer congratulations to the Chargers for winning the AFC West and to LaDainian Tomlinson for scoring three more touchdowns on Sunday to break the all-time single-season mark. Tomlinson is a pleasure to watch and represents the city of San Diego well.

Speaking of guys who fit that description, let’s talk a little today about Tony Gwynn. As you know, this is his first year of eligibility for the Hall of Fame, and the smart money says he’ll get in on the first attempt.

One of the things I’m planning to include in the book is a look back on Gwynn’s 3000th hit, and I’d like your help. What are some of your memories of that game or that time in general?

Here are two of mine:

• Gwynn hugging first-base umpire Kerwin Danley, a former college teammate.
• Me estimating when Gwynn would get the hit and buying tickets in right field for an entire homestand; Gwynn landing on the DL and me watching a lot of Mike Darr.

How about you?

Okay, people know who Greg Maddux is, so I can’t just make stuff up on this one. As you probably are aware by now, the Padres have signed Maddux to a 1-year deal worth $10 million that includes a player option for 2008 which will be worth $6-10 million depending on 2007 performance.

With the horrible contracts being handed out to mediocre pitchers this winter (Adam Eaton, 3 years, $24.5 million; Vicente Padilla, 3 years, $34 million), I shudder to imagine what the likes of Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito will end up landing. In that context, now is a great time to invest short term in someone who can provide immediate help and who won’t tie up a lot of resources well into the future.

How do you do that? Simple, find an old guy.

Seven starting pitchers age 37 or older filed for free agency this winter. All but two of them (Roger Clemens, 44; David Wells, 43) have signed. Recognizing that Maddux’s career took a serious downward turn in 2003, here is how the five old starting pitchers (not an elegant description, but accurate) have fared since then:

In terms of performance and money commitment, Glavine probably is the best investment. Hernandez easily is the worst. If I had to rank these signings, I’d do it as follows:

1. Glavine
2. Maddux
3. Mussina
4. Williams
5. Hernandez

Mussina is the hardest to figure, because you have to do the conversion rates for Yankees money. His $23 million probably comes out to around $13-15 million for most other clubs, and that’s a pretty good deal. You could make a strong case for putting him ahead of Maddux, and I wouldn’t argue the point.

Either way, Maddux is a solid investment in the current market. He’s old, but he’s durable, reliable, and reasonably effective — certainly effective enough to be someone’s #3 or #4 starter, which is all the Padres are asking. Maddux really takes over the role held by Wells in 2004 and Williams in 2005-2006. He’s pricier than either of those two guys were, but today’s market is significantly more insane than the one that existed when they signed.

In Maddux, the Padres get a solid innings eater into the back of the rotation without tying up long-term resources. They also get a guy who doesn’t cost any draft picks. The Dodgers, fearful that he might accept, didn’t offer Maddux arbitration.

The only potential downside to this deal is that, at his age, Maddux could fall off the proverbial cliff any moment. But you have to like 19 consecutive seasons of 199+ innings pitched and 100+ ERA+.

An added benefit to having Maddux on the club, as Jake Peavy notes, is that other pitchers on the staff will have the opportunity to “sit on the bench and talk baseball with him.” There was some discussion in yesterday’s comments about the extent to which this might be true and, if so, how much value it would provide, but apparently Peavy and Maddux are friends, so at least one pitcher will have a chance to pick the professor’s brain. Obviously, you bring a guy in for what he can give you on the field, but something like this seems like a nice little bonus to me.

Another benefit is that, with Todd Walker and the Padres apparently headed to arbitration (and with Walker likely to cost around $3 million), there should be plenty of room in the budget for a power-hitting left fielder. Off the top of my head, I believe the Pads have spent about half of the $30 million or so they had available coming into the off-season. That should be enough to land a replacement for Dave Roberts in left — if not in the market as it stands right now, then perhaps closer to spring training or even after the season starts.

(It’s important to remember that payroll flexibility benefits a team even after winter has passed. If it turns out that there isn’t a good fit for the Padres right now, I expect the doors will remain open to finding a legitimate left fielder.)

Time to wrap up what has become a rambling post. Signing Maddux is a solid short-term move that should help the Padres stay competitive in 2007. It doesn’t hurt them long term, in terms of money or draft picks, and there is the potential side benefit of kids like Peavy, Chris Young, and Clay Hensley getting to watch and/or talk to Maddux about his craft.

I don’t believe the Padres are done yet (in addition to finding a left fielder and a platoon partner for Walker at second, there’s talk of re-signing Wells). The front office still has work to do if they want to bring a third straight division title to San Diego, but adding Maddux to the staff certainly is a nice start.

Long post this morning, so grab yourself a cup of coffee and get comfy…

Padres Sign Cruz

As noted yesterday in the comments (you’re reading those, of course), the San Diego Union-Tribune is reporting that the Padres have signed outfielder Jose Cruz Jr. to a 1-year, $650,000 deal. Is he the answer to anyone’s prayers? No. Is he a useful guy to have around at a very cheap price? Absolutely.

Cruz is coming off a terrible season in which he hit .233/.353/.381 for the Dodgers. Over a 10-year career, however, his numbers are a much more respectable .249/.339/.453 (OPS+ of 104). He turns 33 in April so there’s a decent chance he’ll bounce back to league average. Mike Cameron is listed as Cruz’ most similar batter through age 32 at Baseball-Reference. Former Padres Ruppert Jones (#2), Kevin McReynolds (#5), and Ron Gant (#8) also make his list of top 10 comps.

Reports on Cruz’ defense are mixed. He won a Gold Glove in 2003 while playing for the San Francisco Giants, but there is talk that his game has slipped since then. Looking at range factor (always a dicey proposition), his numbers are slightly below average in center and well above average on either corner.

As the roster currently stands (for whatever that’s worth in December), Terrmel Sledge would be the starter in left field, with the switch-hitter Cruz playing against southpaws. For his career, Cruz has an OPS about 50 points higher batting from the right side.

Cruz essentially replaces Dave Roberts in the fourth outfield slot and is a better fit for the Padres because he’s strong against left-handed pitching and he comes at a fraction of the cost. Look at it this way: he’s got a higher career OPS+ than Jose Guillen (98), who just signed with the Mariners for 1 year, $5.5 million. Or, if you prefer, the Padres picked up a slightly above-average outfielder for less than the price of Geoff Blum or, better yet, Tanyon Sturtze. Seriously, where’s the risk in that?

Padres Eye Maddux

MLB.com and other outlets are indicating that the Pads have serious interest in bringing future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux to San Diego to help fill out the 2007 rotation. The asking price is believed to be 2 years, $22-25 million, and the Dodgers also are thought to be in the mix. Sure, the guy turns 41 in April, but he’s provided 199 innings or more of better-than-league-average ERA every year since 1988.

Maddux no longer dominates, but who cares? He still never misses a start, and his ERA since 2003 is a very respectable 4.10. Plus, can you imagine letting kids like Jake Peavy, Chris Young, and Clay Hensley have unlimited access to the wisdom of both Maddux and Trevor Hoffman?

Hello. Let’s get this thing done!

Book Update

I’m attacking the book on several fronts right now. The two main items I’m working on are:

• the September 4 game against the Rockies at Petco Park where Josh Barfield hit a walk-off homer off Brian Fuentes
• an evaluation of every trade Kevin Towers has made during his tenure as Padres GM

Barfield Game

I’ve just gotten through the bottom of the second inning. If you ever get the chance, I highly recommend sifting through an entire game at a very slow pace, rewinding as necessary to catch various nuances and subtleties that can be missed in real time.

In this one, Mike Cameron ends the second with a fly ball that Cory Sullivan catches about a half-step away from the fence in deepest center field. Cameron swings at the first pitch, an 89-mph Josh Fogg fastball on the inner half of the plate, and absolutely hammers it. If Cameron gets his hands through the zone a little quicker, he hits the ball out of the park to left or left-center.

But Cameron doesn’t turn on the pitch, at least partly because the previous batter, Russell Braynan, has seen nothing but off-speed pitches from Fogg. The separation between his fastball and change-up isn’t huge — about 8-9 mph — but it’s just enough to keep Cameron from pulling the ball and get Fogg out of the inning without damage. The best part, though, is watching Fogg come off the mound and walk back to the dugout. He’s got a big ol’ smile across his face — he knows he got away with one, and he knows exactly how he did it.

Towers Trades

I’ve just finished compiling a list of every trade Towers has made. I still need to go through and evaluate them, but here’s a little something to geek on in the meantime.

Since his first meaningful trade on December 21, 1995, Towers has made 89 deals that involved at least one win share passing hands. The net of those deals, in terms of win shares, is +459 in the Padres favor. That’s actually a staggering number, and one that shocks (no offense to Towers) the heck out of me.

Here are Towers’ 10 “best” trades in terms of win shares gained by the Padres through 2006:

1. March 29, 1999. Traded Andy Sheets and Gus Kennedy (minors) to the Anaheim Angels. Received Phil Nevin and Keith Volkman (minors). +121 win shares
2. December 22, 1999. Traded Wally Joyner, Reggie Sanders, and Quilvio Veras to the Atlanta Braves. Received Bret Boone, Ryan Klesko, and Jason Shiell. +115
3. December 21, 1995. Traded Bip Roberts and Bryan Wolff (minors) to the Kansas City Royals. Received Wally Joyner and Aaron Dorlarque (minors). +52
4. June 18, 1996. Traded Brad Ausmus, Andujar Cedeno, and Russ Spear (minors) to the Detroit Tigers. Received John Flaherty and Chris Gomez. +48
5. November 19, 1997. Traded Trey Beamon and Tim Worrell to the Detroit Tigers. Received Dan Miceli, Donne Wall, and Ryan Balfe (minors) +32
6. December 20, 2004. Traded Jay Payton, Ramon Vazquez, David Pauley, and cash to the Boston Red Sox. Received Dave Roberts. +32
7. February 2, 1999. Traded Mark Sweeney and Greg Vaughn to the Cincinnati Reds. Received Damian Jackson, Reggie Sanders, and Josh Harris (minors). +30
8. November 10, 1999. Traded Andy Ashby to the Philadelphia Phillies. Received Adam Eaton, Carlton Loewer, and Steve Montgomery. +30
9. December 11, 2000. Traded Donne Wall to the New York Mets. Received Bubba Trammell. +27
10. March 28, 2001. Traded Matt Clement, Eric Owens, and Omar Ortiz (minors) to the Florida Marlins. Received Cesar Crespo and Mark Kotsay. +30

Quick observations: First, a lot of Towers’ “great” deals came during the late-’90s; only one of his top 10 (the Roberts trade) has occurred in the past five years. Second, Towers owes a tremendous debt of gratitude to his former college teammate, Mr. Joyner. Third, the Mike Cameron deal will be on this list a year from now; it’s already at +20.

I should add a disclaimer here that this isn’t necessarily the order in which Towers’ top trades will appear in the book. Win shares are just a starting point for us, something to look at while we’re dissecting and analyzing each of these deals.

And now for the “worst” deals of Towers’ tenure:

1. December 15, 1997. Traded Derrek Lee, Rafael Medina, and Steve Hoff (minors) to the Florida Marlins. Received Kevin Brown. -65 win shares
2. August 2, 2001. Traded Woody Williams to the St. Louis Cardinals. Received Ray Lankford and cash. -27
3. November 26, 2003. Traded Mark Kotsay to the Oakland Athletics. Received Terrence Long and Ramon Hernandez. -23
4. March 22, 1996. Traded Raul Casanova, Richie Lewis, and Melvin Nieves to the Detroit Tigers. Received Sean Bergman, Todd Steverson, and Cade Gaspar (minors). -22
5. February 23, 2000. Traded John Vander Wal, Geraldo Padua (minors), and James Sak (minors) to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Received Al Martin and cash. -20
6. December 7, 2005. Traded Mark Loretta to the Boston Red Sox. Received Doug Mirabelli. -16
7. November 18, 1997. Traded John Flaherty to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Received Brian Boehringer and Andy Sheets. -15
8. December 16, 1996. Traded Willie Blair and Brian Johnson to the Detroit Tigers. Received Joey Eischen and Cam Smith (minors). -14
9. March 21, 2006. Traded Dave Ross to the Cincinnati Reds. Received Bobby Basham (minors). -13
10. June 26, 2002. Traded Alan Embree and Andy Shibilo (minors) to the Boston Red Sox. Received Brad Baker (minors) and Dan Giese (minors). -13

Heh. If you’re wondering why we don’t stop with win shares when evaluating these deals, #1 up there should give you a pretty good clue. There’s a strong chance this one will end up in my final list of top five trades Towers has made due to what Brown’s presence meant to the franchise. Without Brown, there is no World Series; without the World Series, there is no Petco Park; without Petco Park, there might not be baseball in San Diego.

The other thing I find interesting is that, with a few exceptions (Williams for Lankford, which was defensible at the time; the Randy Myers deal, which doesn’t show up on this list because no win shares were exchanged; the Mirabelli fiasco, which was vindicated a few months later), Towers doesn’t get taken to the cleaners when he goes to the trading table. Get on the guy for his infatuation with the Rule V draft, but Towers’ track record in trades is fantastic — and much better than I’d imagined.

Final stupid number thingy:

• positive win shares: 46 (average gain, 17.5)
• no difference: 3
• negative win shares: 40 (average loss, 8.65)

Man, I really do need to get a life. Anyway, just a little something to chew on while we’re waiting to see what happens with Maddux. Enjoy!

My computer crashed hard this weekend, and I’m still recovering (took me most of Saturday to get it to boot one last time so I could retrieve all my files, then most of Sunday to build a new system). Today’s entry will be short and sweet as I try to restore some order to the Casa de Ducksnorts.

Actually, the main thing I wanted to discuss this morning is the current free agent market, which has gone completely haywire, and its impact on the Padres. Specifically, I’m fascinated at how the buying frenzy sucks in baseball executives and fans alike, and grateful that the folks in charge of the Friars seem to be exercising prudence so far. Spending solely to keep up with others who are spending isn’t a proactive strategy, it’s a reactive reflex based on fear and it’s a recipe for disaster. As in the course of nine innings, you never want to let your opposition dictate the flow of the game.

Via Gaslamp Ball comes the story of CEO Sandy Alderson laying into some of the contracts being handed out this winter. He primarily takes exception to the Alfonso Soriano deal and wonders if baseball owners have learned anything from the disastrous 2000-01 off-season (Darren Dreifort, Mike Hampton, Chan Ho Park, Alex Rodriguez, etc.). Alderson says a lot of things I find myself nodding my head in agreement with, but my favorite is this:

We still have a mandate to improve the team. It does no good to grouse about the circumstances. We still have to figure a way to improve the team within the marketplace that exists. In some cases it might be the best course of action to see what shakes out over the next week or ten days.

Forget on base percentage, forget drafting college players; this is the crucial lesson of “Moneyball”: finding ways to improve within the existing marketplace. This is also why, when maybe things don’t seem to be going the Padres’ way right now as we wait to see how things play out, I take comfort in knowing that the folks in the front office aren’t panicking or whining about their situation. And these are people with a serious track record, who have “been there and done that” so it’s not like they’re blowing smoke up our Asselstine.

The focus is, as it should be, on improving the organization. To become preoccupied with circumstances is, again, to let external forces over which you have no control dictate flow. I can’t think of a better way to put yourself or your organization at a competitive disadvantage than by spending energy fretting about what might be (or might have been) while the opposition remains engaged in trying to beat you. And I’m very glad that none of this describes what appears to be going on in the Padres front office right now.

It’s a simple process, really: Think about what you are trying to accomplish. Formulate a plan. Be firm, but make adjustments as necessary. Don’t be a slave to the marketplace. Succeed.

First off, big thanks to Dave Roberts for providing a spark at the top of the Padres lineup the past two years. As everyone around here knows, I hated the trade that brought him here when it happened, but he turned out to be way better than I (or anyone) could’ve expected. I was very wrong about Roberts, and I couldn’t be happier to have been wrong.

That said, big thanks to the Giants for giving Roberts $18 million for 3 years to play center field. As those of us who watched him attempt to patrol center in 2005 know, Roberts is overmatched at the position. He also turns 35 at the end of May.

I was happy enough when the Dodgers overpaid for Juan Pierre, but to have the Giants overpay for Roberts? Again, acknowledging all that he brought to the club during his time in San Diego, I couldn’t be happier. Plus Roberts is a Type A free agent who was offered arbitration, which means two more draft picks are coming to the Padres to go with the two resulting from Woody Williams’ signing with the Astros.

I cannot stress enough the positive contributions that Roberts made as a member of the Padres. He genuinely was fun to watch and I love the way he plays the game. I’m happy that Roberts was able to cash in on his success here, that the Padres didn’t commit crazy money to him, and that the Giants did.

I’d say the weekend is off to a good start.