Random Midweek Musings

Hi, folks! I’m back from vacation and still prepping the announcement I promised. Meantime, I’ve been going through all the comments and emails (thanks for keeping the party alive while I was gone — great discussion, as always!), and here are a few thoughts I have on some of the hotter items:

  • Juan Pierre to the Dodgers at $44 million for 5 years is insane. Completely and absolutely insane. I’m very grateful that Ned Colletti seems to share the propensity of his mentor, Giants GM Brian Sabean, to overvalue defense. Having two GMs with that tendency in the division should help the Padres.
  • Has anyone noticed the kind of money that is being thrown around at very marginal relievers? Baltimore, to name one example, signed Danys Baez to an unbelievable 3-year, $19 million deal. I know a lot of us are down on Scott Linebrink right now, but in this market, he’s got to be worth about $8 million a year. Seems to me that despite the denials, Linebrink still could be a solid trading chip.
  • I was hoping the Padres would be able to land Moises Alou or, failing that, maybe David Dellucci. Those, along with the Sean Casey deal in Detroit, have been among the better signings so far this winter.
  • Some have mentioned the Padres’ “failure” to land an impact player at last year’s trade deadline. Bear in mind that for as difficult as it may have been to watch other teams make “bigger” moves down the stretch, the record will show that no team in baseball won more games than the Padres in September. They overcame a 3-game defecit entering the month to overtake the Dodgers and win the division. And with all due respect to George Kottaras, they didn’t separate themselves from a talent like Joel Guzman in the process.
  • Khalil Greene isn’t Chris Gomez. Not even close. In his best season as a regular (1998), Gomez had an OPS+ of 99 and an RC/27 of 4.22. In his worst (2006), Greene had an OPS+ of 96 and an RC/27 of 4.50. The #1 comp for Greene through age 26 according to Baseball-Reference is Jose Valentin. The #1 comp for Gomez at the same age was Dave Concepcion. Of course, Concepcion played great defense and stole a lot of bases at a very high rate of success. So Gomez was really Concepcion without the defense and steals. Greene is a middle infielder with power, along the lines of a Valentin or even a Bret Boone.

I’ve got plenty more on my mind, but it can wait. Right now I’m just happy to be home. :-)

This Date in Ducksnorts (28 Nov)

I’m out this week, but here’s a little something you might enjoy. Treat this as an open thread — I’ve just provided a potential starting point; feel free to “hijack” as appropriate.


Tunes: Radiohead, XTC, The Tragically Hip.

Kevin Towers: Deals of 1995-96, Part 2

One section of the upcoming Ducksnorts book will focus on trades made by Kevin Towers during his tenure as Padres general manager. I’m still in the process of taking inventory of every deal he’s made, and eventually I’ll include his five best and five worst trades in the book, along with analysis of each. For now, however, we’ll just take a quick look at the deals Towers made over his first 14 months on the job. (Part 1 is here.)

November 21, 1996: Traded Dustin Hermanson to the Florida Marlins. Received Quilvio Veras.

Hermanson for Veras
Player Win Shares
1997 1998 1999 Total
Hermanson* 10 13 12 35
Veras 15 23 16 54
Difference +19
*Hermanson was traded March 26, 1997, with Joe Orsulak by the Marlins to the Montreal Expos for Cliff Floyd.

This trade is tough to evaluate because Hermanson never pitched for the Marlins. The table above shows only Veras’ contribution with the Padres and Hermanson’s with the Expos during that same time period. From a value standpoint, the Pads did very well in this deal.

Win Shares
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002* Total
5 18 9 19 26 17 94
*With Florida only.

I guess you’d say that the Expos got the worst of these two trades, but even they did okay. Hermanson made 122 starts over four seasons for Montreal and was quite effective for most of that time.

December 6, 1996: Traded Scott Sanders to the Seattle Mariners. Received Sterling Hitchcock.

Sanders for Hitchcock
Player Win Shares
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Total
Sanders 1 1
Hitchcock 3 9 10 1 1 24
Difference +23

I hated this trade when it happened. I really thought Sanders was a serious breakout candidate who might supplant Andy Ashby as the staff ace. I didn’t know much about Hitchcock except that his ERA was too high and he wasn’t Sanders.

As it turned out, Sanders got hit early and often with the Mariners (65.1 IP, 6.47 ERA) and ended his first AL season in Detroit. Little did we realize at the time that Sanders was very near the end of his career.

Hitchcock, on the other hand, enjoyed a fair measure of success with the Padres, compiling a 4.40 ERA in 672 2/3 innings over five seasons. He appeared to be on the verge of taking another step forward after a strong 1999 campaign, but injuries kept that from occurring — he was sort of a left-handed version of Adam Eaton.

Hitchcock bounced around for a few seasons, eventually returning to San Diego in 2004. Injuries forced him to retire late that season, at the ripe old age of 33.

For whatever else he may have accomplished in his career, Hitchcock will be remembered fondly by Padres fans for his fantastic post-season run in 1998. In four starts against the Astros, Braves, and Yankees, he went 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA, fanning 32 in just 22 innings.

December 16, 1996: Traded Willie Blair and Brian Johnson to the Detroit Tigers. Received Joey Eischen and Cam Smith (minors).

Blair and Johnson for Eischen
Player Win Shares
1997 Total
Blair 13 13
Johnson 1 1
Det total 14
Eischen
Difference -14

The final trade of Towers’ first full season as GM of the Padres didn’t turn out so well, but you could hardly fault his logic. Blair was a journeyman right-hander whose list of comparables through age 30 includes the likes of Miguel Batista, Jay Witasick, Amaury Telemaco, and Russ Springer — useful but replaceable.

Only problem is, Blair didn’t get the memo and had a career year in Detroit, winning 16 games and posting an ERA+ of 110 over 175 innings. He made the most of his opportunity, signing a huge contract with the Diamondbacks in December 1997.

The signing worked out better for Blair than it did for Snakes, and Arizona dumped him on the Mets after just 23 starts. Blair returned to Detroit in a December 1998 trade for Joe Randa and hung on for a few more years before fading away following a forgettable 2001 season.

Johnson enjoyed a fine 1997 campaign, only it wasn’t with the Tigers. After 45 games in Detroit, the former Stanford quarterback was dealt to the Giants for fellow backstop Marcus Jensen. In San Francisco, Johnson saw the greatest success of his career, hitting .279/.333/.525 in 179 at-bats for the Giants. He played one more year there before making stops in Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Los Angeles and then hanging up the proverbial spikes.

For the Padres? Eischen never pitched so much as an inning for them. He was flipped three months later to the Reds for a player to be named later, who turned out to be Ray Brown. No, not that Ray Brown. Not that Ray Brown either. Yep, that Ray Brown.

San Diego had nothing to show for Blair and Johnson. What makes the trade defensible is that nobody could have seen Blair having anywhere near the kind of value he ended up having, even for just one season. It was a sensible move that didn’t work.

Hey, these things happen.

This Date in Ducksnorts (26 Nov)

I’m out this week, but here’s a little something you might enjoy. Treat this as an open thread — I’ve just provided a potential starting point; feel free to “hijack” as appropriate.


  • Two Roads Diverged: Jay Canizaro and Mike Cameron (2002). This marked the beginning of my crazy study of prospects from John Sickels’ 1996 book. Keep beating the drum that even the best analysts don’t get ‘em all right. Such is the nature of attempting to predict the future. Still, give me Sickels’ work any day of the week.

That’s all for now. Go Padres!

Tunes: Bel Canto, Bruce Kaphan, They Might Be Giants.

This Date in Ducksnorts (25 Nov)

I’m out this week, but here’s a little something you might enjoy. Treat this as an open thread — I’ve just provided a potential starting point; feel free to “hijack” as appropriate.


  • Six-Year Minor-League Free Agents and Khalil Greene (2002). Jake Gautreau used to be a pretty good prospect. Why was I so excited about Ryan Rupe? The Greene/Aurilia comparisons still make sense to me. I wonder if Greene will still be in San Diego when he finally puts it all together.

That’s all for now. Go Padres!

Tunes: Neil Finn, Elliott Smith, Rush.

Friday Links (24 Nov 06)

I’m out this week, so instead of our usual Friday Links of timely news items, I thought I’d share some of my favorite non-baseball blogs. Feel free to do the same or talk about anything else that’s on your mind. Um, within reason… ;-)

In no particular order, and without explanation or apology, here are nine blogs that rock my world:

But enough about me; what are some blogs you like to read?

Tunes: Cheb Mami, Beck.

Happy Thanksgiving

I’m out this week, but here’s a little something you might enjoy. Treat this as an open thread — I’ve just provided a potential starting point; feel free to “hijack” as appropriate.


  • Travelsnort: McDowell Road (2004). Here we are, getting lost on a very long stretch of road in Phoenix. Probably would have been fun if we hadn’t been so frakkin’ hungry.
  • Balsley Promoted to Double-A Mobile (2001). Have I mentioned lately how grateful I am that Darren Balsley is still the Padres’ pitching coach?

That’s all for now. Happy Thanksgiving!

Tunes: They Might Be Giants, Elliott Smith.

This Date in Ducksnorts (22 Nov)

I’m out this week, but here’s a little something you might enjoy. Treat this as an open thread — I’ve just provided a potential starting point; feel free to “hijack” as appropriate.


  • Back from Arizona (2004). Trip to Arizona Fall League. Impressed by the Marlins’ Jeremy Hermida and the Suns’ Amare Stoudamire. Bought some sweet books, some of which I still have yet to read.
  • Middle Infield Options and Orosco (2002). Wow, I’d forgotten just how long the Padres have been after Marcus Giles. What I said then: “My current optimal deal would be something like Tomko, Jeremy Fikac, and Eric Cyr for Giles and a second-tier prospect.” Francisco Cordova? Yeah, I guess he was a Friar for about 2 minutes.

That’s all for now. Go Padres!

Tunes: Oingo Boingo, Incubus.

This Date in Ducksnorts (21 Nov)

I’m out this week, but here’s a little something you might enjoy. Treat this as an open thread — I’ve just provided a potential starting point; feel free to “hijack” as appropriate.

That’s all for now. Go Padres!

Tunes: Dead Can Dance, Brothers Cazimero.

Kevin Towers: Deals of 1995-96, Part 1

One section of the upcoming Ducksnorts book will focus on trades made by Kevin Towers during his tenure as Padres general manager. I’m still in the process of taking inventory of every deal he’s made, and eventually I’ll include his five best and five worst trades in the book, along with analysis of each. For now, however, we’ll just take a quick look at the deals Towers made over his first 14 months on the job.

From the time of his promotion as Padres general manager on November 17, 1995, through the end of 1996, Kevin Towers made 10 trades. Three turned out to be of no consequence (Pedro Martinez for Jeff Barry; Roberto Petagine and Luis Arroyo for Pete Walker and Scott Adair; Mel Rosario for Keith Eaddy). Of the others, five worked out very nicely for San Diego, while two did not.

Following the lead of The Ranger Rundown, I’ve used win shares as the starting point for analysis. Of course, numbers tell only part of the story. With that disclaimer out of the way, here are the deals that made any kind of impact during Towers’ first 14 months as GM:

December 21, 1995: Traded Bip Roberts and Bryan Wolff (minors) to the Kansas City Royals. Received Wally Joyner and Aaron Dorlarque (minors).

Roberts for Joyner
Player Win Shares
1996 1997 1998 1999 Total
Roberts 8 6 14
Joyner 16 21 22 7 66
Difference +52

The second trade Towers ever made brought former college teammate Joyner from the Royals for an aging and increasingly brittle Roberts. Although Joyner’s days of 20+ homers were well behind him, he hit .291/.376/.429 over more than 1900 plate appearances in a Padres uniform and provided Gold Glove caliber defense at first base.

Roberts, meantime, hit .296/.339/.368 in a little over 700 plate appearances for Kansas City. His ability to get on base, play second base, and stay healthy all deteriorated rapidly, and at the end of August 1997, he was shipped to Cleveland for right-hander Roland de la Maza, whose contribution to the Royals consisted of 2 innings against the White Sox about a month later.

This may or may not make Towers’ Top 5 trades, but it’s probably in his Top 10. Regardless, it was a pretty nice haul for just his second trade.

March 22, 1996: Traded Raul Casanova, Richie Lewis, and Melvin Nieves to the Detroit Tigers. Received Sean Bergman, Todd Steverson, and Cade Gaspar (minors).

Casanova, Lewis, and Nieves for Bergman
Player Win Shares
1996 1997 Total
Casanova 2 2
Lewis 5 5
Nieves 9 10 19
Det total 26
Bergman 4 4
Difference -22

Towers’ fourth deal was a clunker. None of the guys he gave up was all that great, so it can’t be considered one of his worst, but the Padres got almost no value in this trade.

Casanova had been snagged from the New York Mets in December 1992 as part of a package for Tony Fernandez. At one time, Casanova was thought to be a bright young catching prospect, but it never really worked out that way (Bruce Bochy and Wiki Gonzalez are among his most similar batters). Lewis was a journeyman reliever, and Nieves was the precursor to Ruben Rivera — a frustrating young talent acquired in the July 1993 Fred McGriff giveaway (supposedly the Padres asked for Ryan Klesko) whose final stint in the big leagues consisted of 147 plate appearances with the Cincinnati Reds at age 26.

Bergman had one decent season and one terrible season in San Diego. His final line for the Padres: 212.1 IP, 5.17 ERA. Steverson didn’t do anything, but he gets bonus points for going to my high school.

Bad? Certainly. Disastrous? Hardly. Forgettable? I’ve already stopped thinking about it.

June 18, 1996: Traded Brad Ausmus, Andujar Cedeno, and Russ Spear (minors) to the Detroit Tigers. Received John Flaherty and Chris Gomez.

Ausmus and Cedeno for Flaherty and Gomez
Player Win Shares
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Total
Ausmus 7 7
Cedeno 1 1
Det total 8
Flaherty 7 11 18
Gomez 9 7 15 6 1 38
SD total 56
Difference +48

Like the Joyner trade, this one turned out very well for the Padres. Ausmus and Cedeno were up-and-coming young talents, while Gomez helped stabilize the shortstop position and Flaherty provided a 1 1/2 years of solid production before being flipped for Andy Sheets, who eventually was flipped for Phil Nevin. That latter trade is a no-brainer for one of Towers’ Top 5; this deal helped set that one in motion and is crucial in its own right.

On the other side, although Cedeno was 26 years old at the time, he played in just 55 more big-league games after the trade. Cedeno was killed in an automobile accident in October 2000, at age 31.

Ausmus, after posting a 105+ OPS with the Padres in 1995 at age 26, has played 11 seasons since and never again broken the 100 OPS+ barrier. He played just 75 games for Detroit before being dealt to Houston the following winter — along with Jose Lima, Daryle Ward, and others — for a package that included Doug Brocail and Todd Jones.

July 31, 1996: Traded Bryce Florie, Marc Newfield, and Ron Villone to the Milwaukee Brewers. Received a player to be named later and Greg Vaughn. The Milwaukee Brewers sent Gerald Parent (minors) (September 16, 1996) to the San Diego Padres to complete the trade.

Florie, Newfield, and Villone for Vaughn
Player Win Shares
1996 1997 1998 Total
Florie 4 4
Newfield 6 1 4 11
Villone 3 4 7
Mil total 22
Vaughn 3 7 30 40
Difference +18

Weird trade. Despite already having Rickey Henderson in left field, the Padres brought Vaughn over from Milwaukee to provide an offensive spark during the 1996 stretch run. Vaughn struggled mightily, while one of the players shipped to the Brewers, 23-year-old Newfield, hit .307/.354/.508 in 179 at-bats and looked to be a star in the making. As fate would have it, he played his final game at age 25.

Villone was an erratic young left-hander who had been acquired with Newfield exactly one year earlier in a deal that sent Andy Benes to the Mariners. Florie was a right-handed version of Villone, who perhaps is best known for having his orbital bone fractured by a line drive off the bat of Ryan Thompson in September 2000. Among his most similar pitchers are former Padres Carlos Reyes, Mark Grant, and Brian Boehringer.

Vaughn, for his part, bounced back from a disastrous 1996 and 1997 (he actually was traded to the Yankees for left-hander Kenny Rogers in July of that year before George Steinbrenner pulled the plug due to an alleged rotator cuff tear incurred by Vaughn — I was at the game when Vaughn was traded and remember him saying goodbye to all his teammates on the bench before leaving) and ended up hitting 50 homers in support of the Padres’ 1998 NL championship.

Vaughn was traded to Reds after the World Series in a deal that brought Reggie Sanders to San Diego. Sanders would become part of the package that eventually got the previously sought Klesko into a Padres uniform.

Next time: Dustin Hermanson for Quilvio Veras, Scott Sanders for Sterling Hitchcock, Willie Blair and Brian Johnson for Joey Eischen. Please, try to contain your excitement…