Welcome San Diego Reader Readers
Thu, Dec 14, 2006
by Geoff Young
I’m pleased to note that last week’s post about Greg Maddux coming to the Padres has been published in the latest edition of the San Diego Reader (p. 195, also online). [Full disclosure: Back in the mid-'90s, I played in a band with the editor who decided to run this. On a personal note, I hadn't been in contact with Robert for several years, so it was awesome to reconnect with him.]
If you’re just discovering Ducksnorts via the San Diego Reader, welcome and thanks for swinging by our little corner of the Web (and if you’ve been coming here for months or years, please bear with me as we get folks up to speed — you might enjoy looking back at some of the old posts, and there is a book update buried in here somewhere). Feel free to take a look around the place. If you’d like to join the conversation, read our comments policy and jump on in — we won’t bite. Well, maybe a little.
Here are some of our most recent posts:
- Maddux Comes to San Diego — Gee, this looks familiar.
So, what do you think of this signing? - Remembering Gwynn’s 3000th Hit — Feel free to add your recollections of that dribbler into right field in Montreal.
- Scoring at Petco — I sometimes do heavier analysis; this one takes a look at how well (or not) the Padres are using Petco Park to their advantage.
- Waiting for NOG, Pondering the Best in Padres History — As part of the book I’m working on (more info below), I’m trying to figure out who are the best Padres players ever at each position; maybe you have a suggestion?
And here are some blasts from the past that you might enjoy:
- Nine Signs You Think About the San Diego Padres Too Much — General silliness.
- Gap Dirt — Wow, I’d totally forgotten about this guy; one of the most ineffectually obnoxious fans I’ve ever met.
- Scoring at Petco — I sometimes do heavier analysis; this one takes a look at how well (or not) the Padres are using Petco Park to their advantage.
- Ducksnorts Unofficial Guide to Restaurants Near Petco Park — Pretty self-explanatory; we also have one of these specifically for taco shops.
- Ducksnorts: Best of 2005 — This is a downloadable compilation of posts from 2005.
- Padres Final Baseball Game at Qualcomm Stadium — Honestly I didn’t think I’d ever miss the Q, but sometimes I kind of do; not enough to ever leave Petco Park, which is a great place to watch a game, but there was a lot of history in Mission Valley.
Finally, I’ve got my hands in a few other things that might interest you (book update alert):
- Geoff’s Other Baseball Writing and Media Appearances — I’ve done some writing for other web sites, and I also pop up on the occasional radio program.
- Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual — I’m writing a book about the Padres; this has all the latest information (publication date, price, contents, some excerpts, etc).
And if you still can’t get enough, I also write at a more general baseball blog called Knuckle Curve.
Okay, that should do it. Again, welcome and have a look around the place. If you want something to talk about today, this morning’s U-T is reporting that the Padres are looking at signing Marcus Giles (no shock there) and also everyone’s favorite ex-Dodger, Jayson Werth.
There you go. Happy Thursday!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
December 14, 2006 at 9:03 am
Probably does not hurt to have a little link to personalities of the regulars Geoff…you know, for the new people.
I would hate for them not to know that Tom is constantly accused of being sarcastic, Masticore is late to parties, Peter has analysis, a cool name and a competing/complimenting website, Clayton is the resident nick-name guy, PF4L is well read, and I sometimes have to be talked down from the ledge on a game-to-game basis. There are so many others…what happened to Padres Gal?
December 14, 2006 at 9:06 am
Re: Padres Gal has moved to an Indians Blocg since Barfield was traded
December 14, 2006 at 9:10 am
Sounds like they got your name right and gave your site a link. Some of us weren’t so lucky when the Reader published excerpts from our site. No matter, good to see you getting the pub.
December 14, 2006 at 9:27 am
From SignonSanDiego…
Former Padres pitcher Brian Sweeney came to terms with Japan’s Nippon-Ham Fighters.
December 14, 2006 at 9:29 am
Re:4 I wonder if the pads told him that he had not shot at making the big club this year? I thought he did well in the long relief role last year.
December 14, 2006 at 9:35 am
I threw up a little bit in my mouth when I read that we were going after jaYson Werth. I hope he’s not our left fielder in ‘07, I’d rather even have sledge out there…but it sounds like DePodesta has a little crush on werth, so it might happen
December 14, 2006 at 9:37 am
First Piazza, then Maddux, and now Jayson Werth? No wonder we were interested in Bonds.
December 14, 2006 at 9:41 am
CM,
I heard she got her wish when Barfield knocked Padres Gal up after a long night on the town while trying to drink away the pain of being traded. They are currently planning their future together while taking up residance at Josh’s parents house in Texas, being extra careful of course not to do anything that might upset Josh’s brother Jeremy in fear that they might get pushed down the stairs.
December 14, 2006 at 9:42 am
I never liked Werth either but maybe if he’s our a-hole we’ll all grow to love him. It sounds like we’re going with quantity over quality when it comes to LF.
Another player succumbs to a video game injury:
Guitar video game hurt Zumaya’s arm
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.....40388/1050
Fortunately our guys are safe, there’s no Corky’s jingle in Guitar Hero.
December 14, 2006 at 9:42 am
didn’t Werthless tell a bunch of fans out in left field that they were #1 (by use of a certain finger) a few seasons ago?
December 14, 2006 at 9:43 am
Nice KRS1…nice…
December 14, 2006 at 9:43 am
Re: 8 ouch!
December 14, 2006 at 9:43 am
Maybe I’m missing something-but how do Maddux, Piazza and Werth go together?
Not all are old, not all are bad clubhouse guys……..
December 14, 2006 at 9:45 am
Im playing her in the playoffs this week in the ducksnorts FFBL, I can email her and see if KRS1’s predictions are right.
December 14, 2006 at 9:45 am
Re: 13 all were ex dodgers
December 14, 2006 at 9:45 am
10.
I seem to remember him talking a WHOLE bunch of crap about us in the 2004 season when they eventually won the division. I could be a little foggy on that but I just remember that I thought he was the biggest A-HOLE by the end of that year. I had honestly kinda forgot about him because I have not heard his name in probably 2 years.
December 14, 2006 at 9:46 am
you can also throw Cruz, and ketchner in there as well
December 14, 2006 at 10:07 am
13: You left out “No wonder we were interested in Bonds.”
I picked up something a little more sinister than “ex-Dodgers.”
I’m pretty sure Werthless picked up where he left off in 2005, too. I recall a friend of mine saying so.
December 14, 2006 at 10:13 am
Steve thanks for the reminder…I got Ryguy this week…I was able to make a switch b/c of your post. Thank you!!!
December 14, 2006 at 10:15 am
My pleasure hope to beat you in the finals
December 14, 2006 at 10:29 am
CM, thanks for the compliment.
December 14, 2006 at 10:33 am
I haven’t seen it posted yet. Apparently the Pads offered up a contract to NOG. $3M-$4M
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....notes.html
December 14, 2006 at 10:34 am
I’m the “nickname guy” huh? Isn’t that a nickname in and of itself? I can feel the universe warping as we speak…
re: 10 - apparently Dex of Gaslamp Ball is no big fan of Werth’s. This was linked to over on their site but thought I’d paste here too:
http://pfs76.blogspot.com/2005.....werth.html
December 14, 2006 at 10:38 am
re: 4 - Is there any sports nickname anywhere better than the “Ham Fighters”? Maybe the “Mud Hens”
December 14, 2006 at 10:43 am
Re: 24 no Ham fighters wins.
December 14, 2006 at 10:51 am
I read somewhere that the d’rays are intrested in NOG. Cantu would look good in a Padres uniform right now.
December 14, 2006 at 10:57 am
My comment was meant to mean that we’re all of a sudden interested in players most Padres fans used to (or still do) hate. I might be in the minority when it comes to people disliking Greg Maddux, but I’m sure most Padres fans don’t have Jayson Werth and Barry Bonds on their Christmas list. And Piazza was always booed even after he was traded to the Mets.
December 14, 2006 at 11:04 am
I like the Dirt Bags from CSU Long Beach…but Ham Fighers are pretty cool too!
December 14, 2006 at 11:06 am
i always liked Maddux, FT (fat tony) always hit ‘em well
December 14, 2006 at 11:06 am
#24: Not to kill anyone’s buzz, but for the record, the team is “Nippon Ham” and its nickname is “Fighters.” A lot of folks make that mistake, but in Japan, teams represent corporations rather than cities. It’s too bad, because “Ham Fighters” would be a great nickname.
December 14, 2006 at 11:08 am
Is this name better than Coronado Mike?
December 14, 2006 at 11:19 am
Nah, I like CM better
December 14, 2006 at 11:20 am
Although maybe I’d need to see you at Easter/Christmas dineer to make an accurate judgement.
December 14, 2006 at 11:21 am
DePo is working on Werth? What does that mean? KT got to OK or deep-6 the deal in the end?
I’m confused. I don’t like Werth either. He was nothing special on the field.
31: Yes, that’s a better moniker.
December 14, 2006 at 11:21 am
31: Much.
December 14, 2006 at 11:22 am
Padre fans dislike Maddux and Piazza? Umm I don’t think I’d say that at all. They were both HOF caliber players in opposition jersey nothing more-nothing, not even close to Bonds.
There is a lot of hate for Werth, a surprising level really for someone who is only replacement level.
December 14, 2006 at 11:22 am
34: Werth was actually pretty decent.
December 14, 2006 at 11:24 am
Cantu cannot field though.
December 14, 2006 at 11:25 am
Cantu looks good in a uniform if you don’t care if your players move. Just an atrocious defensive 2b without the offense to make up for it.
December 14, 2006 at 11:25 am
I’d be shocked if Giles chose to sign in TB instead of SD-they’d have to offer him a ton more money to make it worth it
December 14, 2006 at 11:28 am
36: Padre fans did dislike Maddux after the 98 playoffs when he drilled Leyritz, then got plunked in return by Hitchcock (with Leyritz catching) the next season. I don’t think people ever disliked Piazza, he stayed classy, San Diego.
37: Werth’s had one good major league year and an uneven minor league record. Not the worst 5th OF to have, for sure. Don’t want him starting.
December 14, 2006 at 11:44 am
Re: 40 The padres Lowballed Giles he will get better offers from both the Mets and Red Sox, the pads are looking for the SD discount once again.
December 14, 2006 at 11:46 am
Re: 41 I would say werth would have just as good of a shot to start in LF as sledge, Cust, Cruz, P-mac ect…
December 14, 2006 at 11:46 am
27: I though you were making some ‘roid reference, albeit I’ve never heard anyone speculate about Maddux, but Piazza, most definitely have. My bad.
December 14, 2006 at 11:47 am
I’m not as violently opposed to Werth-less in a Padres uniform as I am to Bonds…but it’s similar in tone, just not in volume.
He started his act against the rightfield rowdies back in ‘04. Flipped us off behind his back, where no umpire could see it. Points at the logo on his hat and chest, puts a hand to his ear…later he started pulling the same stuff in left, right up through ‘05.
Is he just having fun with it or is he really that big of a jerk? Hard to say. I’m not in the clubhouse with him. But the use of obscene gestures (and I’ve heard said language as well) towards a crowd that includes children does not speak in his favor. Nor does his apparent shared values with Milton Bradley.
December 14, 2006 at 11:47 am
I think Maddux would have to get the ball over 85 mph before anyone suspected him of using.
December 14, 2006 at 11:52 am
42: A 4 million offer when he was paid 3.85 last year isn’t lowballing. Even 3 million isn’t when his old team just cut him loose.
46: People have accused Maddux of cheating by scuffing the ball before, but steroids? Not to my knowledge, not even when he and Glavine did their “Chicks did the long ball” commercial.
December 14, 2006 at 11:56 am
It’s just good business to use the fact that Giles has other incentives to come to San Diego to our advantage. Hasn’t anyone here ever liked the benefits at a job better despite a slightly lower hourly rate?
I’m not going to fault the management of the ballclub for using good business sense.
December 14, 2006 at 1:02 pm
BP’s stat o’ the day today:
STAT OF THE DAY
Top 5 NL Rotations, by SNLVAR
Team VORP SNLVAR
San Diego Padres 280.7 25.6
Houston Astros 269.6 23.4
Florida Marlins 164.9 22.7
Los Angeles Dodgers 226.8 21.6
San Francisco Giants 170.3 20.6
Have some of that!
December 14, 2006 at 1:02 pm
Re: 47 & 48 i didnt say mangement was wrong for making that offer just that I think the Mets and redsox would offer more.
December 14, 2006 at 1:03 pm
Re: 49 is that 06 rotation?
December 14, 2006 at 1:25 pm
Our ‘07 rotation stands to be even better…
December 14, 2006 at 1:26 pm
from ESPN Rumors
“Dec 14 - The East Valley Tribune is reporting that the Diamondbacks are talking to the Rangers about a trade for reliever Akinori Otsuka, 34, who could challenge incumbent Jose Valverde for the D-Backs’ closer job.
In return, the Rangers have inquired about young pitchers Dustin Nippert, Micah Owings and Enrique Gonzalez.
Otsuka had 32 saves and a 2.11 ERA last season.”
Aki was always terrible in AZ for some reason.
December 14, 2006 at 1:27 pm
Not to be smart aleky, but could it be because it is quite a hitter’s park?
December 14, 2006 at 1:29 pm
Do you guys take LA’s rotation of the SD rotation?
I ask b/c Yahoo ranked the Dodgers as winners in the NL winter, but the Pads as losers, citing the Dodgers great rotation.
I may be a bit of a homer here, but I sorta like our rotation.
December 14, 2006 at 1:29 pm
in 10 games he only pitched 4.2 innings and has an ERA of 23.4 with 16 hits and 12 runs, I dont know hitters park or not thats bad!
December 14, 2006 at 1:30 pm
Re: 55 Penny, Lowe and Schmidt are bigger names than Young and Hensley
December 14, 2006 at 1:31 pm
Does not mean they are better though
December 14, 2006 at 1:31 pm
De Po is working the Werth deal around Towers? For the longest time, SD has had a great club house and I think Towers gives that significant wieght when considering players. De Po probably could give a crap if the guy is a jerk. I’m on Tower’s side, keep the clubhouse clear of jerks.
December 14, 2006 at 1:46 pm
Re: 57 — Steve, I still think the numbers and talent level are on the padres side…Schmidt is a stud, no doubt about it (I wonder why he is with his 4th club in the last few years), but I still think Hensley is underrated and Maddux as a #4 starter is perfect…CY seems to be pretty good, but I want to see 1 more good year of production out of his mediocre, straight fastball before I am a full believer.
Overall, I still think the Pads staff is better. Magnified when you take into account salary!!!
December 14, 2006 at 1:48 pm
Our softball team also has a no jerk policy. Kinda an oxymoron when I’m running the team though.
December 14, 2006 at 1:57 pm
52-what makes ’07’s better than ’06’s?
December 14, 2006 at 2:03 pm
Re: 60 I Agree, im saying thats why a national writer would say that the doggers have a better staff than the pads.
December 14, 2006 at 2:32 pm
62: Peavy should bounce back. Maddux and probably Wells in place of Woody Williams and a couple months of Wells and other poor pitchers. Unless Young and Hensley both take big steps back, this year’s rotation should be clearly better.
December 14, 2006 at 2:50 pm
64: It could be better, but I think the margin is smaller than you do. Both Young and Hensley could regress more than Peavy progresses, Maddux last year was really not much more valuable than Woody+Thompson, and we actually got a fair amount of value from our #5 starters. Park, Wells, Stauffer, and Estes combined for an 18.4 VORP. Wells beat that in 2005 (25.1), but he’s one big flashing red light on the health front.
December 14, 2006 at 3:57 pm
OT: While the net effect is small, Dan Fox in an article at BP today notes that the Padres were #1 this year in MLB in generating runs via the stolen base attempt, netting a whopping 2.76 runs over the course of the season (and were one of only 4 teams in the majors to not cost themselves runs).
On an individual basis, Dave Roberts was #3 in MLB, generating 4.00 runs, and Josh Barfield checked in at #12 with 1.65 runs. Number 1? Ichiro! with 6.03 runs.
December 14, 2006 at 4:20 pm
Frankly there isn’t a single sign that Hensley is going to regress next season. If he keeps his improved K rate from the 2nd half of the year and can keep the ball in park like he has in the past-then Bill James projections of Hensley having one of the best ERA’s in baseball next year might not be far from the truth.
He also has the whole winter to prepare to start instead of 3 weeks.
December 14, 2006 at 4:30 pm
67: Was there a single sign that Peavy was going to regress from 2005 to 2006? It happens. His value will go up if he starts all season and gets over 200 IP, but why are we tossing out his first-half struggles? He was stretched out by June and July and they were 2 of his 3 worst months.
All I’m saying is, teams have often gotten themselves into jams assuming that players are either going to stay the same or improve, when they’re actually volatile. Young pitchers would seem to be especially volatile. Peavy, a much better pitcher than Hensley, went from a 53.1 VORP to 39.2. If I’d suggested that last winter people would have been telling me the same thing you’re telling me about Hensley.
I’m not predicting that he’ll fall back, just recognizing that it’s a legitimate possibility.
December 14, 2006 at 5:49 pm
CM #1 Thanks for the intros. Since I’m new here to writing if not reading.Here’s my bio. 2006- Attended last Padre game alone in LA. Really.
December 14, 2006 at 5:51 pm
Mike, did you really mean “formally” or should that have read “formerly?”
December 14, 2006 at 7:46 pm
68: Some people actually did predict that Peavy might struggle in 06 because he pitched in the WBC. Not only did he not have all offseason to condition, but all that pitching might have worn on his arm a little. Now that might not be the case and maybe he had an off-year, but I think he’ll bounce back and put up a pretty decent line.
December 14, 2006 at 7:56 pm
#69: Welcome to the comment section. Were you in full Padre regalia at that game? Probably wouldn’t have mattered anyway, since most of the Dodger fans left before the fireworks, anyway.
December 14, 2006 at 8:01 pm
71: After the WBC, some people might have thought it was a bit much on Jake’s arm. But anyone looking at his 2005 season last December would have seen better numbers than Hensley provided in 2006. Not to mention Peavy had a much longer major league track record, almost all of it trending in the right direction. But he still didn’t produce in 2006 like he had before. That could happen to any of our pitchers again this year. It could happen to more than one.
The point is, pitchers don’t have straight-line trend. When everything goes right, you win a championship. But denying that Hensley or Young could slip, or not preparing for it, is poor planning.
December 14, 2006 at 8:55 pm
8 - classic
70 - I suppose it could be both…
Story here:
I’m a huge U. Miami Huricanes fan. I read the Scout.com Miami site quite and post on their message board as well… Anyway there, there was a guy who named himself “Canes Fan 4 Life” (without the spaces)… The funny thing was, that he actually omitted the “E.” So in reality he was “CansFan4Life” and every time I read it, I thought, “Yeah, I like that part of the female attomy too, but I haven’t called ‘em “Cans” since Junior High…”
So the moral of the story: be careful what you say about yourself.
December 14, 2006 at 8:56 pm
CM/HF (#55),
The Padres rotation is better and it isn’t close.
December 14, 2006 at 9:17 pm
75: I agree completely. Just the fact that Brazelton won’t start any games for us is a plus. Also, Maddux really is a big upgrade over Woody Williams. If Wells comes back, he’s likely better than CHP and Thompson.
December 14, 2006 at 11:32 pm
RE all the NOG discussion: I don’t think it’s lowballing, it’s negotiating. We should start low since we have the inside track, and if need be, we can adjust upward to match other clubs. There’s no point in starting high and overpaying. We took the same approach last offseason with Trevor and OG. It’s the sensible, business-like approach. Frankly, I’m thankful we have a front office/management team who understands this and doesn’t jump into the deep end without checking the water first (Can you say 5 years and $55 million for Gil Meche? I know you can.
).
December 15, 2006 at 5:43 am
re 66 - that is definitely a factor from our offense in ‘06 that we will not have in ‘07. Better be able to make up for it in increased power…
December 15, 2006 at 7:24 am
75: Looks close to me.
I’ve listed the VORP numbers for our SP last year and this. Assuming that we sign Wells, it’s not a big gap. 3 of the SP are the exact same guys and the other 2 are back-of-the-rotation types. You’re not going to get major improvement that way. The only thing that makes the VORP gap look bigger is Brazelton. There aren’t even words for how bad he was.
If you go to WARP, Maddux was roughly 1 win better than Woody+Thompson. Our pack of 5th starters, including Brazelton, was at 2.2. When he’s healthy Wells beats a 2.2; he managed a 1.6 in limited duty last year. Give him a 4 for 2007. That’s a +3 WARP1 gain from the new starters. Not bad, but not that big either. And completely dependent on the health of two 40 year olds, one of whom missed most of last year.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Peavy get back to a mid-7 WARP, Young and Hensley slide down a notch, and Maddux/Wells combine for a 9. A small improvement, which is okay when you started with a really good rotation. The only way to make it not close is to inject an elite pitcher, which we’re not going to do.
December 15, 2006 at 7:52 am
Re 28: How about the University of Santa Cruz Banana Slugs. That, my frieind is a bizarre nickname.
December 15, 2006 at 7:54 am
Regarding the potential Jayson Werth acquisition, Dex, over at Gaslampball.com, links to an earlier post he did about sitting near left field at a Dodger game a couple of years ago. Pretty funny. Reminded me what a jerk Werth was out in left field when the Dodgers played us.
December 15, 2006 at 8:37 am
Buster Olney says the Pads are close to signing NOG…
December 15, 2006 at 8:38 am
RE: 80. As my license plate frame reads: “100% Slug” I was at UCSC when the chancellor, thinking the school lacked dignity tried to change the name to “Sea Lions”. The students revolted and eventually he caved. The resulting publicity has generated significant revenue in slug-branded products. FYI, the banana slug is a bright yellow 3 inch long slug that frequents the redwood groves on campus
December 15, 2006 at 8:44 am
RE: 83 I think the men’s ultimate Frisbee team and the women’s lacrosse team are much more intimidating with a large yellow slug on their jerseys anyways.
December 15, 2006 at 8:47 am
BoDog just reported that the Pads have 22-1 odds to win the WS next year.
December 15, 2006 at 8:48 am
Wow…really slow news day today.
I guess TB signed Iwamura.
December 15, 2006 at 8:49 am
I’m scared to find out the answer - if we sign NOG, does that mean Todd Walker is an option in LF?
December 15, 2006 at 8:52 am
Todd Walker becomes a utility guy…
I still think the best move we could make is to get Pat Burrell for Linebrink…we become real contenders then…w/o a 40 hr guy we will struggle all year.
At least the dodgers are worse.
December 15, 2006 at 8:58 am
Re: 87 I think if the padres keep walker as a starter they would move giles to third and have Kouz play LF.
December 15, 2006 at 8:59 am
87, 88: We could still trade Walker. They’ve talked about him as part of a LF rotation, which is not exciting. How many players can be in a platoon, anyway?
Just 88: I’d like to get Burrell, but if he hasn’t hit 40 HR in Philly I don’t see him hitting 40 here. Maybe. He did have 37 in 02.
December 15, 2006 at 9:00 am
is burrell a 40 Hr guy in petco? his highest season total is 37.
December 15, 2006 at 9:02 am
89: Little chance of that happening. Walker turns into a utility guy or gets traded when/if NOG signs. They’d get worse defensively at 3 spots and Walker’s bat isn’t worth that.
December 15, 2006 at 9:04 am
Re: 92 is Kouz better defensivly at 3rd than Giles?
December 15, 2006 at 9:07 am
Also with LF Sledge and Cruz im sure are better defensivly than Kouz but if Cust or P-mac are put thier because of thier bat im not sure if there is a drop off in D.
December 15, 2006 at 9:13 am
93, 94: Kouz has been playing 3b continuously for years. Giles has played 1 game there since 2002. The reports on Kouz’s defense vary, but I’d give him a big edge just on experience. Definite downgrade at 2nd and in LF.
McAnulty’s a better defender than people think. Cust, no, but I don’t think he’s a realistic possibility. I’d rank the possible LF, bottom to top, defense only:
Walker
Branyan
McAnulty
Sledge
Cruz</