Padres Pitcher Smackdown: Perry vs Roberts

by Geoff Young on Jan 29, 2007 (16) Comments

And now for something completely different. One chapter in the Ducksnorts book will be dedicated to the best at each position throughout the Padres’ history. I’m working on the starting pitchers now, and I need a little help. Randy Jones is a clear choice for #1, but after that, it gets muddy.

With that in mind, every day this week, we’ll take a look at two pitchers in the running for spots 2-10 and see if we can clarify the situation. Here is our smackdown schedule:

I’ll present a few key statistics for both players, along with links to their Baseball-Reference pages so you can digest all the numbers you need, and note some of the arguments for and against each. I’m hoping we’ll get some good discussion going. Even if we can’t come to agreement, at least we can put ourselves in better position to make an informed judgment.

On to today’s match: Gaylord Perry vs Dave Roberts.

Gaylord Perry
  Year(s) GS IP ERA ERA+ WS
Career with Padres 1978-1979 69 493.1 2.88 119 34
Best year with Padres 1978 37 260.2 2.73 122 18

Arguments For:

  • In 1978, Perry became the second Cy Young Award winner in Padres history.
  • Only Randy Jones has made more starts in a season than Perry did in 1978.
  • Only Jones has won more games in a season than Perry did in 1978.

Arguments Against:

  • Perry pitched only two seasons for the Padres.
  • Neither of Perry’s seasons ranks among the top 10 in ERA+ in club history.
  • Perry benefitted from excellent run support (4.48 per game) in 1978; Atlanta’s Phil Niekro posted better numbers that year but finished 19-18 because his team could score just 3.64 runs per game for him.
Dave Roberts
  Year(s) GS IP ERA ERA+ WS
Career with Padres 1969-1971 60 500 2.99 119 34
Best year with Padres 1971 34 269.2 2.10 157 24

Arguments For:

  • Roberts’ 1971 was better than Perry’s 1978; an astounding 2.30 runs per game behind Roberts (the Padres scored two runs or fewer in 59% of his starts) led to a 14-17 record.
  • Among Padres pitchers, only Jones (1976) and Kevin Brown (1998) have accumulated more win shares in a single season than Roberts did in 1971.
  • Roberts’ 2.10 ERA in 1971 is the best for a single season in franchise history; his 157 ERA+ that year ranks third all time behind Brown’s ’98 and Jake Peavy’s 2004.

Arguments Against:

  • Roberts pitched only 2+ seasons for the Padres.
  • Run support notwithstanding, Roberts’ career won-loss record with San Diego was 22-34.
  • Roberts’ second best season was nowhere near as good as Perry’s second best.

The facts have been presented. What say you, oh connoisseurs of Padres lore?

Kouzmanoff Speaks

by Geoff Young on Jan 28, 2007 (1) Comments

I saw “Kevin Kouzmanoff interview” in the search logs this morning, and then an article showed up in the U-T, so I figured since we’re going to be real busy this week, now would be a good time to throw these out there:

  • Batting Around with Kevin Kouzmanoff (MLB.com, via Teepee Talk). This is from March 2005, but it’s a pretty entertaining read.
  • Hot prospect at hot corner (San Diego Union-Tribune). Here’s an interesting tidbit: Kouzmanoff lived in Bonita from age 2 to 11.
  • Parallels to the past (San Diego Union-Tribune). Of course, no talk of Kouzmanoff would be complete without comparing Josh Barfield to Roberto Alomar. Maybe it’s best for Barfield that he is in Cleveland, where such comparisons won’t be made. I’m a big Barfield fan and I think he’ll be a fine player, but he’s no Alomar:
    Alomar vs Barfield, through Age 23
      AB BA OBP SLG OPS+
    Alomar 2391 .286 .343 .394 107
    Barfield 539 .280 .318 .423 94

    Yes, we’re all bummed that Barfield is gone. No, he’s not a franchise-type player in the vein of Alomar. Time to let go and wish Barfield well in Cleveland.

Happy reading. We’ve got Padres Pitcher Smackdown coming up all this week. You don’t know what that is yet, but you will…

More Spring Training Events

by Geoff Young on Jan 28, 2007 (3) Comments

I just got this note from Jonah Keri:

Come on out to sunny Peoria and meet two major league GMs, Saturday March 3. Mariners GM Bill Bavasi and Padres GM Kevin Towers will talk and take questions from fans for a good 45 minutes, before seeing the two interleague rivals face off in a fierce spring training game. Afterwards, you can buy a signed copy of the newly updated, paperback version of Baseball Between the Numbers and chat with editor/co-author Jonah Keri or receive some kind of The Cheater’s Guide to Baseball promotional item from author Derek Zumsteg. Game time is 12:05 1:05 p.m., and guests should plan to arrive NO LATER than 11 11:30 a.m. for pre-game festivities, to be held in the section where we’ll be sitting.

Cost is $21, which includes your ticket to the game and the money we have to pay TicketMaster to mail them to us so we can distribute them early.

RSVP by emailing to seattlefeed@yahoo.com. Please specify your full name and how many tickets you need. To ensure that we can secure/order a group of tickets all together, deadline to RSVP and pay for tickets will be Friday, Feb. 9. Once we’ve confirmed your RSVP by email, you can PayPal the funds, by no later than Friday, Feb. 9, to: derek@ussmariner.com.

I will be working feverishly to complete the book so I won’t be able to swing this, but it would be cool if some Ducksnorters could make an appearance and give us the lowdown. If you can’t make it to our event (or even if you can), this promises to be a good time.

Update: Game time is 1:05 p.m. Participants should arrive no later than 11:30 a.m.

Three Things You Never Want to See at a Padres Game

by Geoff Young on Jan 27, 2007 (5) Comments

Just got back from FriarFest 2007. It was pretty cool. Apparently a bunch of players were there signing autographs and what-not, but I didn’t see any (disclaimer: I wasn’t looking for them).

The whole thing was a bit like Disneyland — I have a feeling that folks with kids will get even more out of the experience. You can buy all kinds of game-worn stuff for a reasonable price. I almost snagged a Todd Steverson jersey. His entire Padres career consists of a strikeout in his only trip to the plate, but we went to high school together, not that he would know me from Adam.

Anyway, the real highlight of the event is getting to hang out on the field. We wandered around the bases, sat in the home dugout, pitched in the visitors bullpen, and strolled along the outfield warning track. I’ll have more photos up later; for now, these will have to do:

Geoff leads off first base
I will get fooled by the third-to-first move every time.

Geoff warms up in the bullpen
If you ever see this, we’re down triple digits.

Geoff contemplates his next move from the dugout
Hey, at least I won’t be tempted to send Manny Alexander up as a pinch-hitter.

They’re doing it again on Sunday, so if you didn’t get down there today, you have another chance. It’s $5 well spent.

Friday Links (26 Jan 07)

by Geoff Young on Jan 26, 2007 (38) Comments

News is a bit slow these days. Welcome to the calm before the storm. Here are a few items of potential interest:

  • Padres 2007 FriarFest — Just a reminder that this is happening over the weekend. I’m planning to head down there on Saturday.
  • Former hurler has instinctive feel for the game (ESPN, via LaMar in the comments). Jerry Crasnick profiles new Padres manager Bud Black. High praise from Angels GM Bill Stoneman, as relayed by Kevin Towers:

    Bill told me, “If Bud wanted to be a GM, he could be a GM. If he wanted to be a manager, he could be a manager. And he could handle himself very well even if he was sitting down with the board members and the ownership of your club.”

  • Sandy Alderson ’69 nominated to run for College Board of Trustees (The Dartmouth). This is a must-read. Among other things, Alderson talks about putting Bill James’ then-radical theories on the importance of getting on base into practice:

    I got a group of students at Stanford to do regression analyses to see if this approach made sense. I was convinced that it did. We gradually began to apply it in a lot of our decision making in our trades, drafts, acquisitions and so forth.

    Big deal, right? Everybody’s doing it, right? In 1983, not so much. In retrospect, I probably was too reserved in my enthusiasm when Alderson was hired. I like what I’ve seen since he’s been here.

  • What I love about spring training (ESPN, via Coronado Mike in the comments). If you’re looking for reasons to join us in Peoria at the end of March, you could do worse than read Josh Pahigian’s article.
  • Portland Beavers Release 14-Game Spring Training Schedule – PCL (MLN – The Raw Feed). Something else to keep in mind for our trip to spring training is the Beavers’ schedule. Looks like they’ll be playing at home in Peoria that Sunday.
  • I forgot to mention that I was on yesterday’s Suicide Fan podcast. We cover a lot of ground here, but I did manage to get in a little word about David Wells.
  • ZIPS Simulation: Padres vs Giants (Dodger Sims). I’ll leave the explanation to the author. The salient point is that, on paper, the Padres appear to match up very well with the Giants as both teams now stand.

Finally, if you’re interested in doing the spring training thing, drop me a line. Some of you have already contacted me, and I’ll be sending out an email this weekend or early next week to get the ball rolling on actual plans.

Happy Friday, folks. Go Padres!

Limo to Cooperstown: Who’s with Me?

by Geoff Young on Jan 24, 2007 (14) Comments

A buddy of mine caught wind of my road trip to Cooperstown and had a great idea. He owns a limousine company and would like to witness Tony Gwynn’s induction into the Hall of Fame. The catch is that he needs at very least to cover his costs.

Here’s the deal. If enough folks are seriously interested, we can make this happen. You’ll need to be available July 23 to August 1, and be prepared to lay out some cash. How much? That depends. If we can get enough people to commit, my friend and I will start banging on doors to see what kind of corporate sponsorship we can get to help defray the cost.

I know, the idea of taking a limo cross country is totally insane. (Isn’t that the appeal?) But when you stop to think about how many times Gwynn will be inducted into Hall of Fame, maybe it starts to make sense.

My buddy and I need to start talking to “important people” and figuring out how to make the trip rock beyond description asap. With that in mind, I’ll need commitments by the end of February, if not sooner.

So. Who’s with me?

Winter Warm-Up: Temecula

by Geoff Young on Jan 23, 2007 (23) Comments

My wife and I trekked up I-15 to Temecula on Monday night for the first of several Winter Warm-Up events being held by the Padres this week. Temecula is just down the road from Lake Elsinore, home of the Pads’ Class-A affiliate in the California League, so it was a cross-promotional deal. Representatives from both organizations were present, with Storm radio broadcaster Sean McCall serving as master of ceremonies.

Both teams sent their mascots as well. The Swinging Friar and Thunder entertained a packed house at the Old Town Temecula Community Theater before Padres players took the stage and watched promotional videos with fans. The videos were pretty standard faire — highlights from 2006, a preview of 2007 — plus a cool little piece on the Padres’ new facility in the Dominican Republic that included sound bites from owner John Moores, CEO Sandy Alderson, GM Kevin Towers, and VP of Scouting and Player Development Grady Fuson.

Left to right: Scott Strickland, Tim Stauffer, Paul McAnulty (with Thunder behind), Kevin Kouzmanoff, Ryan Ketchner, Clay Hensley, Justin Hampson
Left to right: Scott Strickland, Tim Stauffer, Paul McAnulty (with Thunder behind), Kevin Kouzmanoff, Ryan Ketchner, Clay Hensley, Justin Hampson.

After the videos, McCall asked the panelists — Justin Hampson, Clay Hensley, Randy Jones, Ryan Ketchner, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Paul McAnulty, Tim Stauffer, and Scott Strickland — several questions. McCall did a nice job of keeping things moving, and because he’d gotten to know many of the players while they’d played in the Cal League as members (or opponents) of the Storm, he had a good rapport with them and was able to get some good stories.

Left to right: Randy Jones, Scott Strickland, Tim Stauffer, Paul McAnulty
Left to right: Randy Jones, Scott Strickland, Tim Stauffer, Paul McAnulty.

After McCall had finished with his questions, he opened up Q&A to the floor. More good questions ensued. I can’t remember which were in response to McCall and which in response to the fans, but here’s a little of what we learned:

  • The first two home runs Jones ever served up in the big leagues came off the bats of Willie Mays and Hank Aaron.
  • McAnulty’s walk-off homer last September was his first as a big leaguer, but it wasn’t his first at Petco Park. While he was a member of the Storm in 2004, he’d knocked one out in a game played there.
  • McAnulty’s favorite player growing up was Andre Dawson.
  • Hensley is a big fan of chicken piccata. (Hey, can you blame the guy?)

There also was an amusing moment when McCall asked Ketchner, who is deaf, to say hello to fans in sign language. Ketchner couldn’t make out what McCall was saying, so Hensley relayed the message. Ketchner waved to us and got a good laugh.

Left to right: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Ryan Ketchner, Clay Hensley, Justin Hampson
Left to right: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Ryan Ketchner, Clay Hensley, Justin Hampson.

After the Q&A, there was a free raffle that included signed baseballs from Hensley and Trevor Hoffman. Then kids were invited to come up and get autographs from the panelists.

I hadn’t been sure what to expect going in, but it turned out to be an entertaining and informative evening. There are several more stops on the tour leading up to FriarFest this coming weekend. The events being held Tuesday through Thursday are free, while admission to FriarFest runs $5 per person.

Article at Hardball Times

by Geoff Young on Jan 22, 2007 (1) Comments

I just returned from tonight’s Padres Winter Warm-Up event in Temecula. I’ll post a report and photos in the morning.

Meanwhile, I’ve got a new article up at The Hardball Times called “The Changing Face of the NL West.” It takes a closer look at some of the up-and-coming young players in the division. Enjoy…

Padres Pitching Projections for 2007, Part 2

by Geoff Young on Jan 22, 2007 (13) Comments

We covered the Padres hitting projections on Friday and Saturday, and started the pitching projections on Sunday. Now we’ll finishing up the pitchers.

Heath Bell
  ERA
Bill James 3.75
Chone 3.23
Marcel 4.88
ZiPS 4.08
Average 3.99

Bell has had some nice peripherals in the minors, which I suspect has something to do with the low ERA projected by Chone. There’s a huge spread from top to bottom, so we’re looking at a bunch of wild guesses. Considering that Bell’s career ERA in the big leagues is 4.92 over 108 innings, I’d take any of these.

Clay Hensley
  ERA
Bill James 3.28
Chone 4.03
Marcel 3.71
ZiPS 4.14
Average 3.79

James has Hensley finishing second in the NL in ERA. I’d love for that to happen, but I wouldn’t count on it. The other three all seem reasonable to me and would make me happy.

Andrew Brown
  ERA
Bill James  
Chone 4.10
Marcel 4.35
ZiPS 4.25
Average 4.23

Brown is “the other guy” in the Josh Barfield/Kevin Kouzmanoff deal. None of these projections is spectacular, but everyone seems to think he’s at least a useful guy to have in the ‘pen.

Mike Thompson
  ERA
Bill James 4.09
Chone 4.52
Marcel 4.68
ZiPS 4.65
Average 4.49

These are not bad projections. James seems a tad optimistic, but basically we’re looking at a decent option for #5 starter. Thompson will serve as good insurance at Triple-A and possibly be a useful trade chip.

Tim Stauffer
  ERA
Bill James  
Chone 4.51
Marcel 4.50
ZiPS 4.74
Average 4.58

Stauffer’s numbers look almost identical to those of Thompson.

David Wells
  ERA
Bill James 3.98
Chone 4.54
Marcel 4.69
ZiPS 4.76
Average 4.49

This is a little disappointing. None of the systems is able to differentiate between Thompson, Stauffer, and Wells. I guess the value added is in Wells’ track record and reliability. Assuming, of course, he doesn’t get hurt.

Shawn Estes
  ERA
Bill James 4.86
Chone  
Marcel 5.16
ZiPS 4.81
Average 4.94

Yuck.

Justin Hampson
  ERA
  ERA
Bill James  
Chone 4.98
Marcel 4.74
ZiPS 4.98
Average 4.90

It will be interesting to see whether Bud Black shares Bruce Bochy’s obsession with having a left-hander in the bullpen.

Royce Ring
  ERA
Bill James  
Chone 4.01
Marcel 4.22
ZiPS 5.09
Average 4.44

Your guess is as good as theirs.

Padres Pitching Projections for 2007, Part 1

by Geoff Young on Jan 21, 2007 (6) Comments

We looked at the Padres hitting projections on Friday and Saturday. Now it’s time for the pitchers. Be forewarned: some of these are all over the place.

Trevor Hoffman
  ERA
Bill James 2.77
Chone 3.47
Marcel 3.56
ZiPS 2.38
Average 3.05

The Chone and Marcel projections make no sense. Hoffman hasn’t had an ERA that high since 1995. The other two are pretty well in line with what he’s done over the past four years. An ERA between 2.38 and 2.77 seems reasonable to me.

Scott Linebrink
  ERA
Bill James 3.43
Chone 3.33
Marcel 3.60
ZiPS 3.04
Average 3.35

I would believe any of these. Marcel is closest to what Linebrink did last year, while ZiPS is a shade lower than his career ERA.

Cla Meredith
  ERA
Bill James 3.23
Chone 3.48
Marcel 3.35
ZiPS 3.06
Average 3.28

Hey, nobody predicts a repeat of Meredith’s 1.07 ERA. ;-) Seriously, I’ll take any of these.

Jake Peavy
  ERA
Bill James 3.45
Chone 3.13
Marcel 3.58
ZiPS 3.23
Average 3.35

The most pessimistic of Peavy’s projections would have been good enough for eighth in the NL in ERA last year. The average of all four systems would have placed him fifth.

Scott Strickland
  ERA
Bill James  
Chone 3.67
Marcel 4.68
ZiPS 3.63
Average 3.99

Strickland has pitched four innings over the past three seasons. Everyone is guessing. The projections for Chone and ZiPS look a lot like what he did in 2002, his last healthy season.

Scott Cassidy
  ERA
Bill James 3.86
Chone 3.78
Marcel 4.41
ZiPS 3.71
Average 3.94

It’s easy to forget that Cassidy was pretty effective for a time in 2006. His career ERA is 4.88, and he’s 31 years old. Honestly, even that Marcel projection seems a bit optimistic to me. If this were fantasy ball, the Padres probably could move him on the basis of last year’s 2.53 ERA. Unfortunately, big-league teams have scouts that know better.

Chris Young
  ERA
Bill James 3.87
Chone 3.50
Marcel 3.93
ZiPS 3.82
Average 3.78

All four systems expect at least some slippage from Young. Chone has him nearly duplicating 2006, while Marcel nails his career ERA. James and ZiPS split the difference between 2005 and 2006. These projections seem reasonable to me, and I’d be happy with any of them.

Greg Maddux
  ERA
Bill James 3.63
Chone 3.93
Marcel 4.43
ZiPS 3.90
Average 3.97

James predicts an ERA lower than anything Maddux has done since 2002. Marcel predicts one higher than anything he’s done since 1987. The other two look about right to me, give or take.

Mike Adams
  ERA
Bill James
Chone 4.00
Marcel 4.50
ZiPS 4.05
Average 4.18

Adams was acquired from Cleveland last summer for Brian Sikorski. His career ERA is 3.54, but that’s over just 68 2/3 innings. Who knows.

Doug Brocail
  ERA
Bill James 3.95
Chone 3.76
Marcel 4.88
ZiPS 4.06
Average 4.16

Brocail’s peripherals were pretty strong in 2006. Sure, he’s 40 years old and had injury problems, but everyone except Marcel thinks he’s still useful. I’m inclined to agree.

That’s enough for now. We’ll cover the rest of the Padres pitchers tomorrow.