The San Diego Union-Tribune is reporting that the Padres have signed second baseman Marcus Giles to a 1-year deal worth $3.25 million with incentives that could kick that up to $4.25 million. There’s also a club option for 2008 at $4 million. Giles still has to take a physical, but if the U-T is saying it’s a go, then who am I to argue?
The Padres have been interested in the younger Giles for a very long time, since rumors of a swap involving ex-Padre Brett Tomko surfaced in November 2002, well before the elder Giles came to San Diego. More recently, the Braves had sought reliever Scott Linebrink, who Kevin Towers has been reluctant to move.
Last week, faced with arbitration and possibly having to pay up to $6 million for his services in 2007, the Braves non-tendered Giles, leaving him free to sign with any team. The Padres, who have been pursuing him for at least 4 years, finally got their man and it didn’t cost them anything — no Linebrink, no draft picks — beyond a base salary that is lower than what Mark DeRosa and Jose Valentin will be making next season.
Giles, who turns 29 in May, suffered through his worst big-league season in 2006, hitting just .262/.341/.387 in 141 games for Atlanta. That marked the first time over a full season that he’d failed to reach at least the 112 OPS+ mark. Giles’ best performance came in 2003, when he batted .316/.390/.526. For his career, Giles owns a .285/.361/.448 line over parts of six seasons. Gotta love that .163 ISO from a middle infielder who has yet to reach 30.
With the caveat that second basemen sometimes age poorly (Quilvio Veras, anyone?), Giles brings a blend of patience and power to the plate — similar to his older brother. He also represents a serious upgrade defensively over incumbent Todd Walker, who now becomes a tremendous utility player and left-handed bat off the bench.
Giles’ list of similar players through age 28 is impressive, if varied. Several current players make the cut, including Brian Roberts (#1), Adam Kennedy (#2), Michael Young (#3), Walker (#5), Orlando Hudson (#6), Alfonso Soriano (#8), and Jeff Kent (#9). After Giles’ monster age 25 season, his top comp was Soriano. Obviously their paths have diverged, but the point is, there is significant upside here.
The Bill James Handbook 2007 projects Giles at .281/.361/.436 for the coming season. By comparison, Walker is projected for .280.349/.423, while Ray Durham, the class of this winter’s class, checks in at .282/.357/.461. As always when consulting the crystal ball, take results with a silo full of salt.
This reminds me, here’s a guess at how the 2007 lineup looks as of now, along with their BJH 2007 projected batting lines:
- Marcus Giles, 2b, .281/.361/.436
- Brian Giles, rf, .283/.401/.464
- Adrian Gonzalez, 1b, .287/.345/.473
- Josh Bard, c, .283/.348/.434
- Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3b, .317/.378/.546
- Mike Cameron, cf, .250/.343/.446
- Khalil Greene, ss, .261/.326/.437
- Terrmel Sledge, lf, .274/.350/.462
The Kouzmanoff line is outrageous and I don’t believe it. Possible? Sure, but best not to count on anything near those numbers. That’s basically what Aramis Ramirez has done over the past three seasons.
Right.
At any rate, if we’re to believe the BJH 2007 projections (again, a very big “if”), the Padres will see improvement at second base, right field, and third base (duh); stay about the same at first base, center field, shortstop, and left field; and experience a bit of a drop behind the plate. Of course, Kouzmanoff and Sledge (and to a lesser degree, Bard) are unknowns, so we’ll see. On paper, though, this is a better lineup than what the Padres sent out to battle last season, when they won the National League West.
The other thing the Giles signing does is provide the Padres with a potentially lethal bench. Walker and Russell Branyan give the club two legitimate left-handed bats off the bench, which is something that had gone missing with the departure of Mark Sweeney and Robert Fick following the 2005 season. The upside is that we’re likely to see fewer at-bats in key situations from Geoff Blum. The downside is that it’s becoming harder to envision a spot on the big-league roster for Paul McAnulty, who really deserves a shot.
What next? Well, the Padres still have a shade under $20 about $11 [thanks to Steve in the comments for pointing out the error] million of wiggle room in their budget, so an upgrade in left field would seem to be a possibility. Also, as it stands right now, Mike Thompson would be the fifth starter. No offense to Thompson, who I’ve been following since his days at Lake Elsinore and who did a fantastic job as a fill-in last season, but I’d like to see the Padres get stronger in that area. Barry Zito’s name keeps surfacing, but the David Wells talk seems to carry more weight (pun intended) and I expect something to get done on that front. Having Wells and Greg Maddux at the back end would be sweet.
Okay, to wrap up: The Padres now have a matching set of Gileses (to go with the matching set of Hoffmans). Marcus’ signing is still pending a physical. He’s expected to bat toward the top of the order, most likely leading off. He’s a better defender than Walker (and possibly Josh Barfield), and he’s cheaper than DeRosa and Valentin.
Anything else? Oh yeah, he’s not orange. 
SAN DIEGO (AP) – Second baseman Marcus Giles passed his physical on Tuesday, the last step in completing a deal with his hometown San Diego Padres.
Giles is expected to be introduced at a news conference on Wednesday. He’ll play with his older brother, Brian, the Padres’ right fielder.
The Giles brothers grew up in El Cajon, just east of San Diego.
While confirming that Giles passed his physical, agent Joe Bick declined to divulge details of the contract.
Free Pat the Bat…forget PMac…he looks like a 4A player to me, but what do I know, I thought Adam Eaton would be better than Peavy when they were young…
and no, I don’t mean young like 5…I mean when they were both young pitchers coming up the SDP organization…
I’m also not convinced the 2007 lineup is better. Honestly, is Terrmel Sledge, Josh Bard, and Marcus Giles a better trio than Dave Roberts, Mike Piazza, and Josh Barfield? I think the numbers are lying here.
Josh Bard is obviously a dropoff from Piazza, but Giles is an upgrade over Barfield and Sledge is potentially as good or better than DR offensively.
Also, I think you’re forgetting the biggest upgrade of all: third base.
Having replacement level numbers at third base for the whole year would be at least one win (probably 1.5 wins) upgrade over last year. Vinny Castilla and Mark Bellhorn combined for a -24.6 VORP. Third base should be hugely better this year. Right field should hopefully be better. If Greene stays healthy for most of the year, shortstop (by lowering Blum’s contribution) and second base should improve slightly over last year. First will be about the same, center will see a slight dropoff, left is impossible to project, and catcher will have a big dropoff (but nowhere near the improvement at third base).
On net, I’d count on four improvements, two declines, and two about the same/hard to project. Seems like an improvement to me.
Fun Chargers note:
All three players the Chargers picked up for Eli Manning (who is not going to the Pro Bowl) made the AFC Pro Bowl team. This may not be the Herschel Walker trade, but it’s pretty damn lopsided!
50 – Broussard is yet another lefty, and I don’t think we need another lefty.
I think Cruz is a solid defender in LF/RF, just not in CF.
You might have noticed the name of former San Diego Padres pitcher Sterling Hitchcock among baseball’s free agents. He asked the Padres to take him off the voluntarily retired list in anticipation of a possible comeback. That could be with the Padres, if they like what they see.
Hitchcock, 35, is on a winter throwing program in anticipation of a spring training invitation somewhere.
Source: North County Times
I think Klesko at less than $2 mil for one year was a great signing by the Giants.
RE: #58 – I’d bet 20 bucks that Hitchcock gets signed to a minor league deal with the Gnats. The Bochy wily veteran love train just keeps rollin’!
Ben B…why do you think there will be a drop-off in center? Didn’t Mike Cameron miss almost all of April in 2005?
If he does not get hurt, another 80 ab’s, 4-6h’rs, and 15-20 RBI’s. If he had those numbers, I could possibly see a drop-off, but wouldn’t that suggest that last year’s numbers were a bit depressed?
Oh yea, 2007 is the FA walk year for the guy. Don’t be surprised if you see a better year than 2006.
#60: Can Ashby be far behind then?
About the BeeGees and comment 27 above: What I’m curious about is whether players perform better in their home towns. Maybe happier guys (assuming they don’t hail from Montreal) hit better? Anybody have statistical info on this?
63: There are a couple of data points in SD, that indicate otherwise. Brian Giles and Bret Boone. John D’Acquisto seemed to get a little lift, Graig Nettles more or less continued his late career decline.
Eric Davis and Darryl Strawberry were disastrous in LA.
Anyone hear anything about our old buddy Nevin?
I haven’t heard one single rumor on that dude all winter. I wonder where he’ll end up.
SF, perhaps?
66 – book it
Also pencil in Wiki-Wiki-Wiki Gonzalez, Sean Burroughs, Damian Jackson, and Mark Loretta as SF signings in the days to come.`
Re: 67 im suprised Chris Gomez re upped with the orials
Can Cianfrocco be far behind? He’s gotta be on the phone with Bochy now.
Maybe Castilla too.
Forget Archi Cianfrocco – where’s Craig Shipley these days? And Luis Salazar can play all over the field! And Moreland can catch and play the outfield! It looks like the Giants found the perfect manager for their anti-youth movement.
69: Castilla starting for another NL West team would be beyond awesome.
re: 38 & 39 … thanks for adding “lucre” to my vocab
70 – Shipley is the farm director for the Red Sox, or some such.
Hopefully the Giants on this path, since we all know Bochy can’t resist playing those guys even when they suck.
That dropping lucre into the post was just filthy like a Jake Peavy slider on 0-2!