Friday Links (9 Feb 07)

by Geoff Young on Feb 09, 2007 (14) Comments

Quick update on our guess-the-roster contest, and then we’ll hit the links. Here is the consensus opening day roster so far:

C: Bard, Bowen
INF: Blum, Branyan, M. Giles, Gonzalez, K. Greene, Kouzmanoff, Walker
OF: M. Cameron, Cruz, B. Giles, McAnulty, Sledge
SP: Hensley, Maddux, Peavy, Wells, Young
RP: Brocail, Hoffman, Linebrink, Meredith, Ring, Strickland

McAnulty and Strickland just nose out Scott Cassidy and Heath Bell for the final two spots. You’ll notice that this gives us a 10-man pitching staff, which ain’t gonna happen. That doesn’t bode well for P-Mac. :-(

If you haven’t gotten in on the fun yet, by all means head over there and do so. Meanwhile, it’s link time:

  • 2007 Padres Preview (SI.com, via Pat in the comments). Mostly review material for folks familiar with the club. I disagree with the assertion that attendance at Petco Park is declining due to the Pads’ play at home. Truth is, there were a lot of people showing up that first year who didn’t care one bit about baseball. Also, the Josh Bard/Cla Meredith trade is misidentified as “the one big trade from last year that could pay dividends for a long time.” Look, that was a terrific deal, but the trade with Texas was much, much better. I like Bard and Meredith, but Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young are cornerstones of the franchise now and all it cost was a setup man. It isn’t yet, but this could become Kevin Towers’ best trade as Padres GM before long.
  • Padres expect improvement in 2007 (MLB.com, via LaMar in the comments). Lyle Spencer’s piece starts out with a bang. Check this quote from CEO Sandy Alderson: “Our goal in the offseason was to get from 88 wins to 95 to 100.” Nice to hear that no-one is satisfied with 2006. It also sounds like third base isn’t entirely settled, i.e., Russell Branyan, who did a great job there down the stretch last season, might get a fair amount of playing time.
  • The Best Young First Basemen of 2007 (Hardball Times, via Didi in the comments). Chris Constancio takes a look at, well, you know. Adrian Gonzalez and Kyle Blanks get some love here. The latter is grouped with Dodgers’ first baseman James Loney, which I take as a good sign.
  • Scouting Padres Prospect: Paul McAnulty (Scout.com, via Tom Waits in the comments). Nice profile of P-Mac, who is getting postive reviews for his play at third base last year. One downer: “He was scheduled to go to winter ball to continue learning the position but had off-season knee surgery, precluding him from getting the extra work. He has since resumed workouts and will be in full health when spring training commences next month.”
  • Vinny Castilla retires from baseball (Yahoo!, via LynchMob in the comments). As reader Richard notes, his retirement came a year late.
  • Chan Ho, Silver, at Shea (Baseball Musings). Looks like Chan Ho Park is headed to the Mets. Hello, draft pick.
  • Batting Average on Balls in Play (Beyond the Boxscore, via Didi in the comments). I’ll admit, I’m way late to the BABIP party. And I still haven’t done enough heavy reading to know how much I buy into it. That said, Ryan Ambrust presents some pretty cool information here. Among other things, lefties Glendon Rusch and Barry Zito represent two fascinating data points over the past few years. Closer to home, the Padres’ Chris Young had the lowest BABIP among big-league pitchers in 2006. Incidentally, for the college fans among you, a link to some sweet data at Boyd’s World turned up in the comments.

There it is. Happy Friday, folks, and go Padres!

Kouz and Reminders

by Geoff Young on Feb 08, 2007 (8) Comments

The 11th annual list of Sports Weekly’s 100 Names You Need to Know has been published. Who is at #6? None other than Kevin Kouzmanoff. Two passages demand comment:

They have plenty of options there [at third base] if he [Kouzmanoff] fails, among them Russell Branyan, Geoff Blum and Todd Walker.

Those of you who aren’t in a coma will recognize that two of these aren’t actual options at third. Blum can’t hit, and Walker can’t throw. So it’s pretty much Kouzmanoff and Branyan.

Kouzmanoff, who has also played first base and was used mostly at DH by the Indians, might not make Padres fans forget the smooth-fielding Vinny Castilla, last season’s Opening Day starter, with the glove.

Let’s be honest. Does anyone here give a rat’s-you-know-what about Castilla’s fielding? And is anything short of a Neuralizer likely to make us forget the rest of his game? I think it’s safe to say that fans will cut Kouzmanoff significant slack on defense. We’ve survived Phil Nevin, remember?

(Paul McAnulty also makes the list, checking in at #96.)

. . .

Two quick reminders of upcoming events:

  • Gaslamp Ball is hosting a pizza party this Saturday evening.
  • U.S.S. Mariner is holding their spring training feed in Peoria on March 3. The deadline to RSVP is Friday, February 9 (i.e., tomorrow). Padres GM Kevin Towers will be speaking, so if you haven’t gotten in yet, now would be a good time to do so.

Both promise to be more fun than thinking about Castilla. Get out there and do it. Go Padres!

Lopsided Somersaults and Wild Pitches

by Geoff Young on Feb 07, 2007 (19) Comments

Cardboard Gods offers a nice riff on Garry Templeton. It kills me that Templeton is the best shortstop in Padres history, especially when I read stuff like this:

I like to imagine that at some point during the twilight years of his career Garry Templeton began games by loping onto the field and then dropping arthritically to the ground near the pitcher’s rosin bag to do a slow, lopsided somersault. But he probably just jogged out there like everybody else. Anyway, whatever he did, after a while nobody really paid attention, except for the occasional prick who pointed at him, as I am doing now, and said, “Hey, there’s Garry Templeton. He was once traded for the Wizard of Oz.”

What an eloquent way of encapsulating Templeton’s career with the Padres. I want to offer some defense, but the best I can do is shrug my shoulders and walk away mumbling.

. . .

Speaking of disappointments, how was Robbie Beckett ever considered a prospect? There’s being patient, and then there’s being stubborn. Beckett, in case you’ve forgotten, was the Pads’ first-round pick in 1990. He spent all of 1991-1993 at two different levels of A-ball doing, um…

Robbie Beckett, 1991-1993
IP W-L ERA WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 WP/9
314 8-28 6.31 1.967 7.66 10.04 9.50 0.46 1.87

Unbelievably, this got Beckett promoted to Double-A in 1994. Question: Can you even imagine stepping up to the plate against someone with his line? The rightmost column in the above table is wild pitches per nine innings, if that helps.

Peavy’s Comps and Fan Perception

by Geoff Young on Feb 06, 2007 (24) Comments

Two quick items today:

  • What Does the Future Hold for Jake Peavy? It’s a good question, and one that I attempt to tackle in my latest article at The Hardball Times.
  • Tim Sullivan at the San Diego Union-Tribune did a chat on Monday. From the transcript (scroll about a third of the way down):

    Clearly, the Padres have a perception problem. Many fans BELIEVE — whether justified or not — that they have been misled by management. To the extent that that perception influences the attitude of fans, I think it’s incumbent on the Padres to deal with it. That doesn’t mean that the Padres should start spending wildly to keep pace with larger market clubs with substantially larger revenues. Players who have a choice will sometimes choose bigger markets for the off-the-field opportunities San Diego doesn’t offer. Still, I think there’s a credibility question that the Padres need to answer if they want to avoid alienating their fans.

    I often forget that some people feel this way about the Padres despite the tremendous gains the organization has made since moving downtown. It’s interesting to hear the perspective of Sullivan, who hasn’t been in town all that long. I don’t really have much to add here other than I think he’s nailed the issue pretty well. Some fans will not be happy until they see the club throwing money all over the place to show that they can. As to the credibility question that Sullivan identifies, I remain optimistic that there is a way to address this without being stupid about the money thing. The Padres have smart folks in the front office; I’m sure they’ll figure out something.

USD Takes Series in Texas

by Geoff Young on Feb 05, 2007 (7) Comments

I’m on deadline for a THT article, so this will be brief. Just had to give some props to my Toreros for winning two out of three at #4 ranked Texas. That is cool beyond words.

Also, a few quick reminders:

That’s all for now. Feel free to treat this as an open thread, i.e., chat away. :-)

Contest: Guess the Padres’ 2007 Opening Day Roster

by Geoff Young on Feb 03, 2007 (12) Comments

In Friday’s comments, readers PF4L and Coronado Mike came up with a great idea: Guess the Padres’ 2007 opening day roster. Here’s how we’re going to do this:

  • Submit your guess to me via the handy contact form or leave it in the comments. Identify the 25 players you think will break camp with the big club.
  • Include the name of the player you think will score the Padres’ first run of the 2007 season; this will be used in the event of a tie. If the tie still cannot be broken, my wife will pick names from a hat. I know it’s not the most scientific method, but I want to keep this simple and get as many people involved as possible.
  • Entries are due by Friday, February 16, midnight 11:59 p.m. PT. There is no fee; anyone is welcome to play. One submission per person, please.
  • Results will be tabulated on opening day; whoever gets the highest percentage of correct names wins a Ducksnorts T-shirt of their choosing.
  • I’ll be participating for fun. If I should win, the T-shirt goes to our first runner-up.

Any questions? If not, start sending your guesses and we’ll go from there. Have fun, and good luck!

Padres Pitcher Smackdown: Benes vs Whitson

by Geoff Young on Feb 02, 2007 (33) Comments

Congratulations. You’ve made it to Friday and our final installment in Padres Pitcher Smackdown.

Andy Ashby’s peaks triumphed over Eric Show’s longevity in Day 4 of the smackdown. Ashby also got bonus points for once throwing a 75-pitch complete game and later being traded for Adam Eaton, who in turn was traded for Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young.

Show, on the other hand, appears to be one of the more polarizing figures in Padres history. Depending on who you talk to, he either was a jerk or misunderstood. In my experience, most jerks are misunderstood. And if you don’t believe me, ask Barry Bonds. ;-)

Anyway, before we wrap things up this week, here’s a quick look at the entire series:

For the finale, we turn to a guy who once was on target to become Randy Jones’ successor as best starting pitcher in Padres history, Andy Benes, and the enigmatic Ed Whitson:

Andy Benes
  Year(s) GS IP ERA ERA+ WS
Career with Padres 1989-1995 186 1235 3.57 109 71
Best year with Padres 1991 33 223 3.03 125 16

Arguments For:

  • Benes ranks among the top 10 in Padres history in ERA, wins, K/9, innings, starts, and shutouts.
  • No pitcher has struck out more batters in a Padres uniform than Benes; no starter has posted a higher single-season K/9 than his 9.87 in 1984 1994 (thanks, LynchMob!).
  • Benes was incredibly consistent and durable; from his debut in August 1989 until his July 1995 trade to Seattle, his ERA almost always stayed at or above league average and he never missed a start.

Arguments Against:

  • Benes never won more than 15 games in a season for the Padres.
  • Other than 1991, his ERA+ never ventured higher than 110.
  • Despite posting solid numbers, there was perhaps a sense of unfulfilled expectations from the first pick overall in the 1988 draft (hey, at least he wasn’t Matt Bush).
Ed Whitson
  Year(s) GS IP ERA ERA+ WS
Career with Padres 1983-1984, 1986-1991 208 1354.1 3.69 99 68
Best year with Padres 1990 32 228.2 2.60 148 19

Arguments For:

  • Whitson was part of the rotation when the Padres first reached the World Series in 1984; although his only start against the Tigers was a disaster, he shut down the Cubs in Game 3 of the NLCS to keep the Padres’ post-season alive.
  • Despite being mediocre for much of his career, Whitson’s peaks were remarkably high — his performances in 1989 and 1990 remain among the best ever by a Padres’ starter.
  • He ranks third in franchise history in wins, innings, and games started, and seventh in strikeouts.

Arguments Against:

  • Whitson’s 1983, 1986, 1987, and 1991 were pretty terrible; his 1988 wasn’t real hot either.
  • He lacked dominanace; Whitson’s single-season high in strikeouts was 135, and he fanned just over 5 batters per 9 innings during his Padres career.
  • I can’t think of anything else.

This looks to me like another case of career value vs peak value. Who do you like, and why?

Padres Pitcher Smackdown: Ashby vs Show

by Geoff Young on Feb 01, 2007 (24) Comments

Jake Peavy beat Bruce Hurst in Day 3 of the smackdown. Peavy’s stretches of pure dominance were just too much for the steady reliability of Hurst.

Here is the schedule for the entire week:

Today we move to a battle of right-handers with ties to the Padres’ World Series teams, Andy Ashby and Eric Show:

Andy Ashby
  Year(s) GS IP ERA ERA+ WS
Career with Padres 1993-1999, 2004 185 1212 3.59 113 69
Best year with Padres 1995 31 192.2 2.94 138 14

Arguments For:

  • Ashby ranks fourth all-time in Padres history in wins and seventh in ERA+.
  • He pitched very well for the ’98 NL Championship squad; you could make a real strong case for that being his best season, and I wouldn’t put up much of a fight.
  • Except for 1998, when Kevin Brown pitched for the Padres, Ashby was the best pitcher in the rotation every year from 1994 through 1999.

Arguments Against:

  • Ashby’s peak was fairly low; he had several very good seasons, but no great ones.
  • Ashby lacked dominance — his hits allowed and innings pitched were about even.
  • His post-season record was lackluster.
Eric Show
  Year(s) GS IP ERA ERA+ WS
Career with Padres 1981-1990 230 1603.1 3.59 100 83
Best year with Padres 1988 32 234.2 3.26 105 14

Arguments For:

  • Show is the only pitcher ever to win 100 games while wearing a Padres uniform.
  • He’s top three all-time in games, innings pitched, strikeouts, and many other categories.
  • Show was an important part of the Padres’ first ever World Series team in 1984.

Arguments Against:

  • Show’s ERA+ is perfectly average, 100.
  • He had a terrible post-season in ’84.
  • Like Ashby, Show’s peak was pretty low; much of his success can be attributed to the fact that he remained with the Padres for so long.

I keep going back and forth on this one. What do you guys think?

Padres Pitcher Smackdown: Hurst vs Peavy

by Geoff Young on Jan 31, 2007 (10) Comments

Welcome to Day 3 of Padres Pitcher Smackdown. Day 2 saw Dave Dravecky winning handily over Clay Kirby. Their peaks were fairly similar, but Dravecky’s overall numbers were better, albeit over a shorter period of time. Dravecky also gets points for being a solid contributor to the 1984 World Series squad and for serving as an inspiration after his playing career — even though the latter didn’t happen while he was with the Padres, it still speaks well of his character, and that counts for something.

Kirby, for his part, had some truly dominant performances for some truly horrendous Padres teams. Unfortunately he also was extremely inconsistent. I don’t know if anyone who reads Ducksnorts ever got a chance to see Kirby pitch, but his numbers paint the picture of a better, healthier Adam Eaton. My guess is that fans didn’t find Kirby as exasperating as Eaton because they were just happy to have a big-league team in town and had no serious aspirations of, well, anything.

Here is the schedule for the entire week:

Today’s matchup features a southpaw from Utah, Bruce Hurst, and a righty from Alabama, Jake Peavy:

Bruce Hurst
  Year(s) GS IP ERA ERA+ WS
Career with Padres 1989-1993 131 911.2 3.27 113 59
Best year with Padres 1989 33 244.2 2.69 130 18

Arguments For:

  • Hurst ranks in the top five in Padres history in shutouts and complete games.
  • He ranks eighth in Padres history in ERA+ and wins.
  • Hurst made 30+ starts and earned 10+ victories in all four of his full seasons in San Diego.

Arguments Against:

  • Hurst never was the best pitcher in his rotation — he always played second fiddle to Ed Whitson or Andy Benes.
  • After a strong initial campaign with the Padres, Hurst steadily declined each of the next three seasons.
  • I dunno, I can’t find another one.
Jake Peavy
  Year(s) GS IP ERA ERA+ WS
Career with Padres 2002-2006 138 864 3.51 114 55
Best year with Padres 2004 27 166.2 2.27 177 16

Arguments For:

  • Peavy has won an NL ERA title and an NL strikeout title.
  • He’s top five in Padres history in K/9 and ERA+.
  • Peavy is one of the best pitchers ever produced by the Padres and could move past Andy Benes before too long.

Arguments Against:

  • Peavy has been fragile, missing starts in two of his first four full seasons.
  • His post-season record is brutal.
  • Peavy hasn’t been around very long, and we don’t know what kind of path Peavy’s career will take; look at his comparables through age 25, paying particular attention to the career of Benes.

Those are the facts. You know the drill.

Padres Pitcher Smackdown: Dravecky vs Kirby

by Geoff Young on Jan 30, 2007 (18) Comments

Opinion was pretty divided on Day 1 of Padres Pitcher Smackdown, with Gaylord Perry and Dave Roberts each gaining their share of support. In case you missed it, each day this week we’re examing two starting pitchers and trying to determine which should rank higher in Padres history. Randy Jones isn’t on this list because he’s a clear #1.

Here is the schedule for the entire week:

Today’s matchup features an underappreciated lefty, Dave Dravecky, and one of the original Padres, Clay Kirby.

To the numbers:

Dave Dravecky
  Year(s) GS IP ERA ERA+ WS
Career with Padres 1982-1987 119 900.1 3.12 115 57
Best year with Padres 1985 31 214.2 2.93 120 14

Arguments For:

  • Dravecky ranks fourth all-time in Padres history in ERA+.
  • He ranks 10th in wins.
  • In 1984, Dravecky worked 10 2/3 scoreless post-season innings — all in relief, but still.

Arguments Against:

  • Dravecky spent much of 1984 and 1987 in the bullpen.
  • Dravecky’s best season with the Padres wasn’t that great.
  • Only once in his 5 1/2 seasons with the Padres did Dravecky break triple digits in strikeouts — he wasn’t dominant at all.
Clay Kirby
  Year(s) GS IP ERA ERA+ WS
Career with Padres 1969-1973 170 1128 3.73 94 49
Best year with Padres 1971 36 267.1 2.83 117 17

Arguments For:

  • Kirby was very tough to hit in 1971; only Chris Young has allowed fewer hits per 9 innings over a Padres season.
  • Kirby ranks sixth all-time among Padres in K/9.
  • Only Jones and Show have more complete games in a Padres uniform than does Kirby.

Arguments Against:

  • Kirby’s ERA+ is subpar.
  • Like Dravecky, his best season wasn’t that great.
  • Kirby was wild, walking 100+ batters in each of his first four seasons.

Taking only their Padres careers into consideration, which of these pitchers do you like better and why?