Padres Hitting Projections for 2007, Part 2

by Geoff Young on Jan 20, 2007 (10) Comments

Just finishing up from yesterday. We’ll run the pitchers tomorrow — including David Wells, who reportedly has signed a 1-year deal for $3 million. (Gut reaction: I’m happy with the signing, although having two guys over 40 in the rotation makes me a little nervous.)

Mike Cameron
  BA OBP SLG
Bill James .250 .343 .446
Chone .250 .340 .434
Marcel .259 .338 .471
ZiPS .251 .334 .446
Average .253 .339 .449

Most of these are about the same. The only exception is Marcel, which sees Cameron maintaining his power numbers of the past three seasons. The other systems all have his SLG dropping back to the level of his final two seasons in Seattle.

Terrmel Sledge
  BA OBP SLG
Bill James .274 .350 .462
Chone .255 .331 .419
Marcel .264 .335 .431
ZiPS .260 .339 .436
Average .263 .339 .437

Sledge has a very spotty track record at the big-league level, and the projections reflect this. There’s about a 20-point spread in batting average and OBP, and a 40-point spread in SLG. The James numbers seem a bit optimistic. Even so, this looks like a Garret Anderson stat line to me.

Khalil Greene
  BA OBP SLG
Bill James .261 .326 .437
Chone .255 .326 .431
Marcel .262 .327 .446
ZiPS .253 .324 .418
Average .258 .326 .433

Everything here looks about right except for the ZiPS power numbers. Greene’s career ISO is .179, and it’s never been lower than .173 in a single season. In fact, his ISO has increased in each of his full big-league seasons, but ZiPS has it at .165 in 2007. I don’t buy that Greene’s power is in decline at age 27.

Todd Walker
  BA OBP SLG
Bill James .280 .349 .423
Chone .255 .328 .378
Marcel .281 .349 .438
ZiPS .270 .344 .381
Average .272 .343 .405

Throw out the Chone projections on this one; Walker’s never put up numbers like that in the big leagues. Batting average around .270-.280 seems like a safe bet, as does OBP around .345-.350. Power numbers are all over the place. Who knows.

Rob Bowen
  BA OBP SLG
Bill James .242 .323 .388
Chone .232 .309 .363
Marcel .263 .340 .420
ZiPS .220 .306 .339
Average .239 .320 .378

Bowen has 131 career at-bats. Not enough data. Take these projections and throw darts at ‘em.

Geoff Blum
  BA OBP SLG
Bill James .238 .298 .357
Chone .229 .283 .342
Marcel .242 .298 .373
ZiPS .233 .295 .344
Average .236 .294 .354

Two questions:

  • How did Blum post a .362 OBP in 2002?
  • Why is he still on the roster?
Jose Cruz
  BA OBP SLG
Bill James .242 .345 .427
Chone .239 .345 .401
Marcel .246 .344 .434
ZiPS .228 .328 .375
Average .239 .341 .409

The ZiPS numbers are pretty far out of line from the others. Chone doesn’t like his power. Honestly? I think Cruz is a great platoon partner for Sledge, because aside from the batting average, I can’t tell their two projected lines apart.

Todd Greene
  BA OBP SLG
Bill James .254 .289 .422
Chone .261 .307 .415
Marcel .274 .327 .445
ZiPS .277 .315 .416
Average .267 .310 .425

It’s weird that the OBP range is wider than the SLG range. No great insight here; it’s just weird.

There you go. Pitchers tomorrow.

Padres Hitting Projections for 2007, Part 1

by Geoff Young on Jan 19, 2007 (18) Comments

Nice of me to show up on a Friday, eh? Here are projections for Padres hitters according to the Bill James Handbook 2007 (affiliate link), as well as the freely available Chone, Marcel and ZiPS systems. I also have included a line averaging the systems.

A few general observations are in order: Bill James appears to weigh minor-league stats more heavily than the others (his projections for some players are Kouzmanoff the charts), while Chone and ZiPS appear to ding Padres hitters a bit in terms of power — not sure if that’s a park factor thing or what, but there you go.

Finally, there are other systems out there — namely PECOTA and Ron Shandler — that I didn’t use. This is no reflection on either of them; both do fine work, but I don’t have access to their numbers and I think four is probably enough to give you the general idea.

Okay, to the players.

Brian Giles
  BA OBP SLG
Bill James .283 .401 .464
Chone .273 .381 .431
Marcel .274 .377 .435
ZiPS .279 .386 .423
Average .277 .386 .438

All four systems project a rebound in batting average for Giles the Elder. James is extremely optimistic about Giles’ OBP and SLG. Everyone else seems him as around .380/.430. That’s about what Kevin Youkilis did for the Boston Red Sox in 2006.

Adrian Gonzalez
  BA OBP SLG
Bill James .287 .345 .473
Chone .276 .341 .444
Marcel .294 .354 .483
ZiPS .289 .350 .475
Average .287 .348 .469

Some variance here, as we might expect for a young player without much of a track record. Chone’s SLG is 30-40 points lower than all the others. Nobody thinks Gonzalez will repeat his .300 batting average. His average line is almost identical to what Washington third baseman Ryan Zimmerman did last year.

Josh Bard
  BA OBP SLG
Bill James .283 .348 .434
Chone .272 .342 .423
Marcel .293 .363 .463
ZiPS .281 .356 .424
Average .282 .352 .436

Bard must have been a real pain to project. His 2006 was so out of line with anything he’d done in the past. Marcel is less skeptical of his improvement last year than are the others. I’ll be happy with any of these. Bard’s average line bears strong resemblance to what Ramon Hernandez did in his two seasons with the Padres.

Paul McAnulty
  BA OBP SLG
Bill James      
Chone .260 .329 .409
Marcel .269 .341 .430
ZiPS .280 .347 .435
Average .270 .339 .425

Marcel and ZiPS are pretty close for McAnulty. Chone doesn’t like him as much, but even that projection should be enough to earn him a spot on some big-league team’s bench, especially if he can play even a passable third base. The average line is similar to what Shawn Green did in 2006.

Russell Branyan
  BA OBP SLG
Bill James .231 .329 .475
Chone .230 .332 .447
Marcel .248 .341 .479
ZiPS .244 .340 .454
Average .238 .336 .464

Geez, who cares what the batting average is. That’s a mighty productive player. Guys like Eric Chavez and Brandon Inge are getting paid big bucks to put up those kinds of numbers.

Kevin Kouzmanoff
  BA OBP SLG
Bill James .317 .378 .546
Chone .272 .329 .451
Marcel .267 .336 .447
ZiPS .279 .334 .452
Average .284 .344 .474

The bad news: We really need to dismiss the James projections; I’d love to see Kouzmanoff outproduce Aramis Ramirez this year, but it’s not going to happen. The good news: Everyone else has Kouzmanoff at around .270/.330/.450. If he does that, he’s basically a younger, cheaper Adrian Beltre.

Marcus Giles
  BA OBP SLG
Bill James .281 .361 .436
Chone .262 .342 .396
Marcel .283 .357 .430
ZiPS .276 .356 .406
Average .276 .354 .417

There’s pretty good consensus for Non-Orange Giles in terms of batting average and OBP. ZiPS doesn’t like his power, and Chone doesn’t like his entire game. The average line is about what the White Sox’ Tadahito Iguchi did last year.

Jack Cust
  BA OBP SLG
Bill James      
Chone .228 .365 .377
Marcel .278 .343 .444
ZiPS .232 .366 .403
Average .246 .358 .408

The Marcel projection makes no sense. If he does nothing else, Cust will draw walks. Realistically, we’re looking at the 39-year-old version of Kenny Lofton without speed, defense, or batting average. Not very appealing, is it?

Okay, it’s my wife’s birthday, and I’m going to get in big trouble if I try to finish this right now. We’ll wrap up tomorrow.

Happy Friday!

Ducksnorts Book Excerpt: The Miracle That Almost Happened

by Geoff Young on Jan 18, 2007 (32) Comments

Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual The following excerpt is taken from the Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual, tentatively scheduled for March 2007 publication. This is part of a chapter that focuses on the San Diego Padres’ World Series season of 1998.

The Padres kicked off the season in style, dismantling the Reds, 10-2, in Cincinnati behind new ace Kevin Brown, who surrendered just one run over 6 1/3 innings. Brown also contributed at the plate, knocking a bases-loaded double to account for half of a 6-run outburst in the seventh inning. Tony Gwynn accounted for the other half, hammering a three-run homer to right-center. Wally Joyner added a home run of his own, and the Padres were off and running.

By the end of April, on the strength of an eight-game winning streak, the Padres had a 19-7 record and a 5-game lead over the second place Dodgers. After 26 games the previous season, the Padres had been 10-16, comfortably in last place. They now found themselves two games ahead of the pace they’d set in 1996, and three ahead of 1984.

Many contributed to the success of this early run. Surprisingly, however, the Padres received very little production from the likes of Ken Caminiti, Greg Vaughn, and Steve Finley.

Top Padres Batters in April 1998
  PA BA OBP SLG
Joyner 78 .338 .410 .544
Veras 116 .312 .431 .375
Gwynn 103 .362 .398 .479

On the pitching side, Brown set the tone. Despite the 2-2 record, Brown’s ERA over six starts was a stingy 2.45, and opponents hit just .238/.275/.298 against him. Andy Ashby, perhaps inspired, began the season 4-1 and held batters to a .247/.284/.329 line.

The bullpen remained uncertain behind Trevor Hoffman. Newcomers Dan Miceli and Carlos Reyes had gotten off to promising starts, but Donne Wall, Brian Boehringer, and Don Wengert were struggling. Still, the Padres played four extra-inning games in the season’s first month and won them all, so they must have been doing something right.

Particularly impressive were two games against Esteban Loaiza and the Pittsburgh Pirates. On April 18, with the Padres trailing 5-3 at Three Rivers Stadium, catcher Carlos Hernandez hit a two-run homer with two out in the eighth inning to tie the game. Left-hander Sterling Hitchcock, who began the season in the bullpen, and Miceli held the home team in check until the Padres were able to push across two unearned runs in the top of the 10th. Hoffman nailed down the victory with a 1-2-3 bottom half for his fifth save.

A week later, at the recently rechristened Qualcomm Stadium, the Padres victimized Loaiza yet again. Hitchcock, making his first start of the season, was chased from the game early, having surrendered three runs in three innings. The Padres, though, chipped away at Loaiza’s lead, scoring a run in the fourth and another in the fifth to tie the game. The score remained 3-3 for the next 10 1/2 innings, until Finley hit the third of three straight singles in the bottom of the 16th to plate Veras and give San Diego its seventh win of the young season. The bullpen, for its part, worked 13 innings that evening, allowing just four hits and two walks.

The other notable game in April took place against the expansion Arizona Diamondbacks. Ex-Padre Andy Benes shut down his former team for eight innings and Arizona, with the help of two errors by Caminiti that led to three unearned runs against Brown, held a 4-2 lead going to the ninth. After issuing a leadoff single to Vaughn, Diamondbacks closer Felix Rodriguez retired the next two batters. He then walked Mark Sweeney and Quilvio Veras, bringing Finley to the plate. Finley proceeded to drive Rodriguez’ second pitch into the right-field bleachers for a walk-off grand slam. This would prove to be one of the defining moments of the 1998 season.

Some Links and Another Radio Show

by Geoff Young on Jan 17, 2007 (22) Comments

I’m knee deep in the “Padres Best By Position through History” chapter of the book, so we’ll keep it brief today. Thanks to everyone who has been sending me excellent links.

  • Tony Gwynn Prospect Retro (Minor League Ball). John Sickels takes a look back at Gwynn’s minor-league days.
  • My Take on Cedric Hunter (Minor League Ball). I’ll ruin the surprise and say that Sickels likes him. Fascinating stuff in the discussion — especially the comps to Trey Beamon. In his ’96 book, Sickels rated Beamon a B+ prospect, saying that he “could be Tony Gwynn, or he could be Hosken Powell.” And that was after a season at Triple-A. So when we talk about Hunter (and this is something I mentioned on Monday night’s podcast), although it’s great to be enthusiastic about his future, we need to remind ourselves every so often that numbers in Rookie Ball don’t mean a whole lot. That said, I’m enthusiastic about his future. :-)
  • Marcus Giles detained after fight at Qualcomm (San Diego Union-Tribune). Not the kind of headlines you want to be making as the new guy. Or as any guy, really.
  • San Diego Padres Mom. New Padres blog alert. [Tip o' the Ducksnorts cap to Gaslamp Ball]
  • Padres 2007 FriarFest. From the site: “The Padres annual FriarFest will be held at PETCO Park on Saturday, January 27 and Sunday, January 28, from 11:00 a.m. – 3:00 p.m. FriarFest is your chance to meet your 2007 Padres players and get autographs, purchase exclusive game-used items and go behind the scenes at PETCO Park.” Tickets are $5.

The other item I wanted to mention is that I’ll be doing another radio show tonight. It’s on WMAR in New York, and the interviewer is none other than our very own Ryguy. Because I’m lazy, I’ll just copy and paste the promo piece:

Listen to WMAR Marist Radio on Wednesday, January 17, 2007, from 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT to 10 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT. We will be joined by Geoff Young and Jeff Sackmann to talk baseball. Both Young and Sackmann write at The Hardball Times. Jeff Sackmann will join us at about 8:20 p.m. ET/5:20 p.m. PT to talk about his blog, BrewCrewBall.com, and talk to us about the Brewers and what his thoughts are on the hot stove league thus far. Geoff Young from Ducksnorts and KnuckleCurve.com will join us at about 8:40 p.m. ET/5:40 p.m. PT to talk about his book project, his team the San Diego Padres and his breakdown of the NL West. We will also get some fantasy insight from them as we ask for the top 5 players on each team and some early predictions on how their divisions will shake out.

At 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT we will be joined by Kenpom.com‘s Ken Pomeroy, ESPN Insider and College Basketball expert, to break down the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.

You can listen at the following links [Ed. note: -- these should open in iTunes]:

If you can’t catch us live, subscribe to our podcast. You can also catch our past two podcasts through the subscription.

  • Podcast main page
  • Podcast XML (put in iTunes and it works):
    itpc://www.garageband.com/artist/wmarshow/podcast/newsletter.xml

Also we will be taking IMs during the interviews if anyone has to add anything, IM our AIM screen name is “MaristRadioAM”.

So, you know. Like, be there.

Ducksnorts on Big League Baseball Report

by Geoff Young on Jan 15, 2007 (36) Comments

The good folks at Big League Baseball Report have been kind enough to let me come on their show and ramble on about the Padres as part of their team preview series. We address some of the moves the Pads have made this off-season, how the NL West looks to be shaping up for ’07, and a whole lot more. I tried my best to evade the questions about Dusty Baker and Matt Bush. ;-)

Hosts Joe Aiello and Phil Zuber are doing previews for all the big-league teams. So far they’ve done four of them, including one with Jon Weisman at Dodger Thoughts, but they’ll be running a bunch more right up till opening day. Give their show a spin, and if you like what you hear, they’ve made it real easy to sign up for their podcast via iTunes, RSS, email, carrier pigeon — okay, I made up that last one, but you get the idea.

Thanks again to Joe and Phil for having me on the show. Enjoy!

Greene, Greene, Bard, and Spring

by Geoff Young on Jan 15, 2007 (22) Comments

Sometimes it really sucks to be a San Diego sports fan. We try to convince everyone that our teams aren’t soft, and then they go out and prove us wrong. The Chargers didn’t even show up on Sunday. How can a team with that kind of talent play such an undisciplined and sloppy game?

This town has grown up a lot over the past several years. It’s time for the teams that represent us to stop being satisfied with “getting there” and start bringing their best effort to big games. We watched the Padres self-destruct in October, and we watched the Chargers do it yesterday. It’s disgusting and it has to stop.

Anyway.

Khalil Greene

The Padres have re-signed shortstop Khalil Greene to a 1-year, $2.25 million deal, avoiding arbitration. No long-term contract? No surprise. Greene hasn’t improved since his rookie season, but he’s still young enough to do so. Both sides essentially are deferring any decision on Greene’s future for another year in the hope that they’ll have a better indication of his value to the club come next winter.

The risk for Greene is that this — .260 with 15 homers, decent defense, and regular trips to the DL — is as good as it gets and he never receives the big money reserved for studs like, um, Julio Lugo. Okay, on second thought, maybe there isn’t much risk for Greene.

The risk for the Padres is that Greene steps up his game a bit and turns into the Rich Aurilia type player many of us have been expecting. Then the club will have to decide whether his performance is a fluke or represents genuine growth, and whether to pony up Lugo (or more) money to keep him.

In other words, don’t read too much into the fact that this is a 1-year deal. Both sides are just delaying a decision they’ll eventually have to make.

Todd Greene

The Padres also have invited veteran catcher Todd Greene to spring training, presumably to compete with Rob Bowen for the backup job. You may recall that Greene was in camp last spring before hooking up with the Giants.

Josh Bard

Speaking of catchers, it looks like Josh Bard and the Padres have avoided arbitration. According to MLB.com, which cites the Denver Post (Bard is from the Denver area), the deal is 1 year, $1.05 million.

Spring Training Meetup

I mentioned a while back that we’ll be having a meetup during spring training. I’m happy to report that I’ve firmed up dates: I’ll be out at Peoria from Friday, March 23 to Sunday, March 25. I ‘m expecting to have copies of the book in hand, so be sure to keep those dates in mind and we’ll iron out details in the coming weeks. Hope to see a bunch of you out there.

That’s all for now. Be bummed about the Chargers for as long as you need to be, and then get over it; baseball is almost here, and we need to focus. One of our teams has to come through for us sooner or later. Time for the Padres to give it their best shot.

Friday Links (12 Jan 07)

by Geoff Young on Jan 12, 2007 (30) Comments

First off, thanks to those of you who have gotten in touch with me about the world tour. Sounds like I’ll be seeing some of you in Durham, Harrisburg (between Durham and Cooperstown), and Fort Wayne. This thing is six months away and I’m already getting pumped.

Anyway, it’s Friday. Time for links:

Tony Gwynn

  • Gwynn’s quick ascent preludes storied career (minorleaguebaseball.com). Benjamin Hill writes a nice piece detailing Gwynn’s ascent to the big leagues. I love this nugget from former teammate (and former Padres pitching coach) Greg Booker:

    Tony could flat out run, too. He had two or three inside-the-park home runs in Walla Walla, but I remember one of them was called back after the umpire said he missed first base. That was in Eugene, Oregon. Tony was so mad that he threw his tobacco at the umpire and got ejected. That was the only time I ever saw him try to get thrown out of a game.

  • Looking Back: Gwynn’s Pro Debut Sped Up His Timetable (Baseball America). This is a reprint of John Maffei’s 1981 article on Gwynn. It’s a scanned copy, but worth the effort to read.
  • Gwynn Charts Course for Cooperstown (via LynchMob in the comments). This is the official announcement at the Hall of Fame web site.
  • Speaking of official announcements, while doing research for the book, I learned that Gwynn actually received official recognition from the House of Representatives in September 1999 for his 3000th hit. Pretty cool.
  • Baseball’s Best. I don’t know why the powers-that-be have chosen to make this so hard to find (burying it in the Mets web site?) I had such a hard time finding this, but you can see a video of Gwynn’s 3000th hit here. It takes you through the entire at-bat, with Jerry Coleman and Bob Chandler calling the action.
  • Top Ten Good Things About Being Elected To The National Baseball Hall Of Fame (via Lynch Mob in the comments). Gwynn and Cal Ripken appeared on Letterman this week. I love #6: “At any moment, there’s a good chance Bob Costas is boring someone with stories about me.”

Other Stuff

  • Off-season lowdown: Congrats to Gwynn (FOX Sports, via RotoRob). Rob Blackstien previews the Padres. I’m a little surprised to see Greg Maddux mentioned as part of the front three, rather than Clay Hensley, who finished 10th in the league in ERA last year. Then again, I suspect few people who don’t follow the club closely have even heard of Hensley. Their loss.
  • Team 2006: Best 25-man roster for the price (USA Today, via Coronado Mike in the comments). Speaking of Hensley, this roster could be totally slammin’ with either him or Chris Young in Javier Vazquez’ place in the rotation. Nice to see some love for Josh Bard and Cla Meredith, but how is Julian Tavarez a “bargain” at $3.35 million? Get replacements for him and Vazquez, and swap Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols, and you’ve got an equally devastating team for much less moolah. I like the concept, but they kinda screwed up here.
  • Eight Prospects to Watch in 2007 (Hardball Times, via Ben B. in the comments). Bryan Smith details several prospects who might be under most folks’ radar and who could bust out soon. We’ve known about Kyle Blanks for a while now, but it’s nice to see him listed in the “Diamonds in the Rough” section here. I’m looking forward to seeing him at Elsinore this year.
  • Chargers Anthem by P.O.D. (Official Chargers Blog & Podcast). Yeah, I’m kind of a bandwagon fan these days, but this song is getting me pretty fired up for the playoffs. That is the extent of Chargers coverage here, although you’re welcome to sound off in the comments, of course. For serious coverage, might I recommend Boltz 4 Eva and Chargers Confidential.

Kind of a long list today, but then, it’s been kind of a special week. Happy Friday, everyone. Go Chargers!

Ducksnorts World Tour 2007

by Geoff Young on Jan 11, 2007 (77) Comments

With Tony Gwynn’s Hall of Fame induction ceremony coming up in July, I figure now is as good a time as any to plan a road trip. You know I love the minor-league ballparks, so I’ll be hitting seven of them over 10 days on my drive from San Diego to Cooperstown and back. If you’re in or near any of the places I’ll be, let me know — I’d love to meet you in person.

Ducksnorts World Tour 2007: In Like Gwynn
Date(s) City Game
Mon., Jul. 23 Albuquerque, N.M. NO (Was) @ Alb (Fla), 7:05 p.m.
Tue., Jul. 24 Oklahoma City, Okla. Por (SD) @ Okl (Tex), 5:05 p.m.
Wed., Jul. 25 Knoxville, Tenn. Car (Fla) @ Ten (Ari), 7:15 p.m.
Thu., Jul. 26 Durham, N.C. Nor (NYN) @ Dur (TB), 7:00 p.m.
Fri., Jul. 27 –
Sun. Jul. 29		 Cooperstown, N.Y. HOF induction
Mon., Jul. 30 Fort Wayne, Ind. Bel (Min) @ FtW (SD), 7:00 p.m.
Tue., Jul. 31 Springfield, Mo. Tul (Col) @ Spr (StL), 7:15 p.m.
Wed., Aug. 1 Albuquerque, N.M. SLC (Ana) @ Alb (Fla), 7:05 p.m.

This is an extremely aggressive schedule, so I’m not sure how much blogging I’ll be able to do. I will try to check in every now and then, and I’ll upload photos to Flickr when I return. Anyway, take a look and let me know if I’m coming to a town near you. We’ll catch a game or two. :-)

Also, we have shirts:

World Tour 2007 White T-Shirt @ Ducksnorts Online Store /

In Like Gwynn

by Geoff Young on Jan 09, 2007 (96) Comments

You know that saying, “in like Flynn”? Now it’s “in like Gwynn.”

Congratulations to Tony Gwynn, Mr. Padre, on his Hall of Fame election. Gwynn picked up 97.6% of the vote. It’s an honor well deserved, and as a citizen of San Diego and fan of the Padres, I couldn’t be happier to have Gwynn represent all of us.

Congratulations also to former Orioles shortstop Cal Ripken, who received 98.53% of the vote.

More Gwynn HOF Coverage:

  • Reflections on a Hall of Famer (North County Times). John Maffei, who has covered Gwynn since the latter first played hoops at SDSU in 1977, has some kind words for the newest Hall of Famer.
  • Gwynn made it one base at a time (North County Times). Shaun O’Neill pays tribute. Great quote from Gwynn: “The pitcher has the ball. He knows what he wants to do. He knows how he’s going to attack guys. But when I went to the plate, I flipped the script. I made it so I was dictating the action.”
  • Gwynn anxiously awaiting official call (San Diego Union-Tribune). Bill Center’s article contains this gem from the master: “Someone asked me yesterday morning if I was making preparations and I started talking about the Aztecs. No kidding, this guy just gave me a blank stare – like I had lost my mind.”
  • Gwynn’s long-ago choice will be validated by a call from the Hall (San Jose Diego Union-Tribune). This is Bernie Wilson’s Associated Press piece from a few days ago.

Emil Brown Article at Hardball Times

by Geoff Young on Jan 09, 2007 (25) Comments

While we’re waiting for the Hall of Fame announcement, I’ve got an article on ex-Padre Emil Brown up at the Hardball Times.

Speaking of the HOF, the announcement is scheduled for 11 a.m. PT. I’ll be posting something as soon as I get word. Assuming Tony Gwynn gets the call, there will be a media conference at Petco Park at 12:45 p.m. PT. It is open to the public and viewable from Park at the Park.