Pretty uneventful day, huh? Somehow I get the feeling “uneventful” is not a word that will ever be used to describe Sandy Alderson’s tenure with the Padres. And it’s nice to see that Kevin Towers isn’t content to rest on any laurels after receiving a contract extension.
You might want to sit down for this one. We’re going to be here a while tonight.
Back in Black
So, the Padres made a decision on their next manager. Bud Black gets the call over Trey Hillman and, let us all breathe a huge sigh of relief, Dusty Baker.
Black played at SDSU with Tony Gwynn in 1978 and 1979, and enjoyed a fine big-league career, winning 121 games over parts of 15 seasons. Since 2000, he’s served as pitching coach for the Angels, where he helped develop the likes of Jarrod Washburn, John Lackey, and Francisco Rodriguez.
According to his Angels bio, Black hasn’t managed at any level. How much does that matter? Eh, the difference between “has fresh ideas” and “lacks experience” is about the same as that between winning and losing.
Honestly, I would have been perfectly happy with either Black or Hillman (Blez at Athletics Nation likes both as well). I’m just glad the decision has been made and we can get on with life.
Who Moved My Barfield?
I’m a huge Josh Barfield fan. I’ve been covering him at Ducksnorts since July 2, 2001. After his monstrous 2003 season, I geeked out big time on the kid. No, I mean really big time.
Heck, one of the key chapters in the book I’m writing focuses on an improbable walk-off home run he hit just over two months ago. I made T-shirts because of that homer (get ‘em now; soon, like Barfield, they’ll be gone forever!).
None of this, of course, is a compelling reason not to deal Barfield. I can be sad to see him go but also acknowledge that, from an organizational standpoint, moving him for a third baseman makes sense.
The one concern I have is that in filling one hole, the Padres are opening another. This is mitigated to a large extent, I believe, by the fact that second base should be a much easier hole to fill than third base has proven to be over the past few years (Sean Burroughs, we salute you!).
Case in point, here are this winter’s free agent second basemen of note, along with how they did in 2006:
- Ronnie Belliard: Age 31, .272/.322/.403 — solid, unspectacular; about on the same level as Barfield, obviously without projectability
- Mark DeRosa: Age 31, .296/.357/.456 — flukish season aided by home park; useful talent but could be overvalued
- Ray Durham: Age 34, .293/.360/.538 — had a career year, but he’s been extremely consistent over most of the past decade
- Adam Kennedy: Age 30, .273/.334/.384 — not many secondary offensive skills; good defensive reputation
- Mark Loretta: Age 35, .285/.345/.361 — on downside of career; previously enjoyed success in San Diego
This doesn’t include guys like Atlanta’s Brian Marcus Giles, or the Padres’ own Todd Walker. So, really, we’re looking at five relatively useful guys, one of whom (Durham) stands out a bit from the others.
And here are the third basemen:
- Rich Aurilia: Age 35, .300/.349/.518 — enjoyed second best season ever since career year in 2001; with four seasons of extreme mediocrity in between, someone else can pay to see whether he’ll repeat or revert
- David Bell: Age 34, .270/.337/.399 — we’ve had enough third basemen in San Diego who can’t crack a .400 SLG, thank you
- Pedro Feliz: Age 31, .244/.281/.428 — can’t get on base
- Aubrey Huff: Age 29, .267/.344/.469 — decent option who will be overpaid due to lack of competition
- Aramis Ramirez: Age 28, .291/.352/.561 — opted out of an $11M deal with the Cubs; hint: he doesn’t expect to make less this year
Japan’s Akinori Iwamura is also available. So, here we’ve got one guy who will break the bank (Ramirez), one who should do pretty well for himself (Huff), and three who should scare the heck out of you and me.
In short, there are more options at second than there are at third, and none should cost so much as to prohibit bringing in a legitimate power hitter to play left field and/or a big-name starting pitcher.
[Brief pause for hot chocolate]
Kouzmanoff? Gesundheit!
For their troubles, the Padres received Kevin Kouzmanoff (pronounced kooz-MAHN-off) and minor-league right-hander Andrew Brown. Peter Friberg has profiled Kouzmanoff quite nicely at Padres Run Down. Basically he’s a 25-year-old hitting machine. His minor-league numbers are impressive, to say the least. Yes, he’s a tad old, but so were Mike Lowell, Bill Mueller, and Phil Nevin when they got their big-league careers started.
Baseball Think Factory’s Dan Symborski likes the deal for the Padres from a talent standpoint (he compares Barfield to Rennie Stennett; I think Orlando Hudson is a better comp) but cites the aforementioned hole it creates at second base as a negative. Symborski’s ZiPS projection system tabs Kouzmanoff as a .279/.334/.452 hitter. Sure, I’ll take one of those.
Between Kouzmanoff and Russell Branyan, the Padres should be in pretty good shape at the hot corner for the first time since Nevin played there.
Big Picture
The Padres still have holes to fill. But that was the case even before they moved Barfield for Kouzmanoff (and Brown). In making this deal, they’ve just shifted the nature of one of those holes, presumably making it easier to fill.
I hate to see Barfield leave. And I have concerns about the perception among some fans (mostly the ones I hear on the drive-time sports talk shows) that the Padres somehow aren’t trying to improve themselves through this and other moves. I don’t know if it’s a general misunderstanding of Moneyball, fueled in part by some members of the media who maybe can’t (or won’t) figure it out themselves, but I hear a lot of negativity about the direction Alderson, Towers, and company are headed. I don’t think it’s very well founded.
But never mind what I think. Just let me know the last time the Padres had three straight winning seasons. Or the last time they reached the playoffs in back-to-back years.
Alderson talks about the Padres teaching their young hitters to be aggressive, with judgment. He mentioned on the radio Wednesday afternoon that he holds the front office to that same standard. Dealing Barfield for Kouzmanoff and Brown is consistent with this philosophy. Does it upset fans from time to time? Yes, probably so. We all get comfortable with what we know. But there’s a difference between being comfortable and being great. And when push comes to shove, as a fan of this team, I’m glad that the guys running the show appear to be more interest in greatness than in comfort. As for those of us who find change difficult, rest assured, we’ll feel better when this team becomes great.
135 Comments
*Atlanta’s Marcus Giles
Nice analysis overall.
Thanks, Richard; got it. I’ve also added Kouzmanoff and Brown to the org tree. And I took the liberty of sponsoring Bud Black’s page at Baseball Reference.
Geoff,
Once again your analysis is SPOT ON! I agree with you completely. I hate to see Barfield leave but I am very pleased with the possibility of having a relatively young and potential option at 3rd for the future. It’s been a really boring few weeks but I am so ready for this off-season to start taking shape. Thanks for giving myself and all these other die hards a place to go!!!!
Holy Cow! When you said Barfield for a 3B I was thinking Marte. Kouzmanoff? Can I call the 1090, XX, or whatever it’s called and whine about how I’ve never heard of this guy?
I think I’ll trust the guys who do this for a living to have scouted him enough to know whether he’s worth moving Josh for or not. Still I’ll miss Josh, he was an exciting, young player and I wish him well.
I like having Bud Black on board, too. Nothing particularly against Bochy, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Black is more in tune with Alderson and the rest of the Front Office. I hope having a pitching coach as the manager doesn’t make Balsley want to go elsewhere though. Anyone know if he and Bud have any sort of prior relationship? I really love the job Darren does with our staff.
One possible negative with Kouzmanoff that deserves mentioning is his injury history. He’s had back problems and pulled his hamstring recently. But other than that I do like the aggressiveness this shows, and hopefully it does solve the third base problem for the foreseeable future.
I like the analysis Geoff, but I think the stability that Barfield brought was invaluable. I don’t really care if Sandy says that second base is an easy position to fill – having a new guy there every season isn’t exactly a quality I associate with a winning ballclub. Moving a cheap, proven commodity with room to improve for an unknown, especially with a glut of third basemen in the minors, isn’t a very good move.
Indians fan here- looking for Padres fan’s perspective on this. Overall reaction has been favorable from Cleveland standpoint. We had gaping hole at 2B since trading Belliard and giving Brandon Phillps away.
We had a glut of corner/dh guys with no potential to play other positions- Kouz, Marte, Garko, Hafner, Victor Martinez. No ready replacements from within for middle IF. Also lacking 2 hitter since losing Vizquel and no team speed whatsoever beyond Sizemore. Free agents at 2B were not attractive considering age and $$. Looks like win/win depending on how SD fills in at 2B. Andrew Brown was out of options and not likely to make the club.
#5: Good point about the injury history, Ben. That is a risk.
#6: True, Bryan, there is something to be said for stability. As for the “glut” of third baseman, it’s mainly Chase Headley, and he’s even less proven than Kouzmanoff. Again, I’m not ecstatic about this deal but I understand it.
#7: Hey, Kevin, thanks for stopping by to give the Cleveland perspective. It does sound like a win/win. I think you’ll be happy with Barfield, although his low OBP probably makes him better suited to the bottom of the order (#7 or lower) at this stage in his career.
Breat analysis GY. Always fun to log on and get your reasoned perspective. I was thinking about the 2b hole now. One thought that I had was to still go after Iwamura, only now for 2b. First, the posting fee is a one year hit, leaving us money and flexibility for next year. Second, he gives us a hedge at 3b, in the event Kouz gets injured or has some difficulty adapting at the ML level.
I met Barfield once at a Padre function. A great kid and I thought he’d turn into a plus 2b. But, if we can stay even on production at 2b, we’ll have a huge upgrade at the black corner. Hopefully, Kouz will be as likeable as Barfield and he’ll become a fan favorite. (If he hits like he did in the minors, fans will be saying, “Josh who?”)
What about Soriano? He wasn’t listed in the 2B section – isn’t he available? Or, is he not on the wish list?
#3: No, KRS, thank you for reading and exchanging ideas. I probably don’t say it often enough, but I couldn’t do this without y’all.
#4: Pat, a few of us have wondered about the impact Black’s presence might have on Balsley. I have no clue whether they have any kind of history, but out of anyone on last year’s staff, Balsley is the one guy I don’t want to see leave.
#9: Thanks, LaMar, for the Barfield story. I really hope he does well with the Indians. I’ll be following him like I followed Nady this year. When you see a kid in A-ball, it’s hard not to get a little attached.
#10: Mike, thanks for the note. Everything I hear indicates that Soriano can’t actually play the position. Several folks have talked about his selfishness; I can’t speak to that, but if the price is right, it wouldn’t kill me to see him play LF for us next year.
I like the Black hire – don’t know how he’ll do, but I’d rather watch him than some tired old skipper (Hello, Dusty) bumble around for several years.
On trading Barfield – like most everyone, I liked Barfield and thought he played pretty well, particularly for a rookie. I understand the thinking that 2B is easier to fill than 3B and Kouzmanoff’s minor league numbers are impressive. So the trade makes sense from that standpoint. Trading a guy who played a solid, full big league season for a guy who has not is an aggressive move – so the folks on the radio that are complaining about the team’s unwillingness to improve are missing that.
My concern is this – 3B is such a tough position to fill. So many teams over the last 10 yrs have thought they had “The Guy” to be the next Mike Schmidt – a player who could play the position in the field and bring a serious bat – and most of them have been dead wrong. Rolen is the only guy that immediately comes to mind who fills that description, though David Wright seems on his way to doing it, too. I’m probably missing a couple of others. But rosters have been littered with guys who were supposed to be the next big thing at 3B and most disappeared quickly. Kouzmanoff is still learning defensively and has already experienced back trouble – not something that usually goes away when a guy’s a power hitter and has to hit the ground a lot to cover the 3B line.
So while I understand the team’s thinking and I do think this was a move that could make the team better, it also seems to be a bit of a gamble. The odds on finding a productive, healthy 3B just don’t favor most teams.
I always hate trading young proven talent for young unproven talent, but I do understand this move.
I also like the fact that no one is untouchable on the pads and that they are making moves for the sole intent of making the team better. This move was not make because of a money issue but because Towers/Alderson felt that it would improve the team which you could not say about alot of the padres moves in past years.
UT is saying that Counsell, Garciaparra or M Giles may be considered for 2B.
How does Koozy sound for a nickname?
Wow Counsell is a step back, Nomar was talked about last year but I thought he had some throwing issues, and Giles may be ok, he can also fill the hole left in the leadoff spot since it lookes like the pads will not re-sign roberts.
Giles
Giles
Gonzalez
Piazza (Maybe)
Cameron
Greene
Kouzmanoff/Branyan
Johnson/Sledge
Not to bad still lacks that big bat though.
Barfield is on 1090 right now. He says he feels like the rug was pulled out from under his feet. He had absolutely no idea it was going to happen. He was in town for the awards banquest and was eating breakfast.
JB just said he feels like he got dumped (as in by a girlfriend). Wow, it sounds like he is really bummed.
He said he may not go to the awards banquet tonight, but will think about it.
Here’s the U-T article mentioned in #14 (thanks for the heads-up). Didn’t realize Barfield is represented by Boras. Interesting…
Cammy II tried to convince him to go.
GY I wonder if that had anything to do with Towers decision. Not for the immediate future, but for when they do have to negotiate with him in 5 years. I know Boras is not anybody’s best friend around here.
Another interesting link at
http://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/10277755/detail.html
“A source inside the Padres organization said the team feels very confident they’ll sign Alfonso Soriano when the free agent signing period begins, NBC 7/39 reported.”
Couple that with Towers’ statement in the UT that “We’ve talked to 2 or 3 second baseman, one of star quality” and you have the makings of a really hot stove.
Interesting La Mar, thanks for the link.
GY, expand on your point about Soriano not being able to play 2B. Is that widely understood? If so, why would KT want him for that position?
I still have to believe that if the do go after Soriano it is as a LF not a 2B…
I heard the Barfield interview. Seems like a great kid. I’m 30, I can say that. Made me a bit bummed this morning, even if his lobs to first and swing-first MO drove me nutty. The new guy’s back and hammy problems scare me a bit.
Ryan Zimmerman is another 3B worth mentioning. Not to mention Eric Chavez and Mike Lowell. Those two may fall short of the MIke Schmidt hemisphere but still pretty good. Does A-Rod count?
I think Soriano is considerd a minus at second, simple as that.
#24: I’m not as well versed in the latest and greatest defensive metrics as others, but my understanding is that Soriano’s numbers at second base were terrible before being moved off the position. I found some discussion on this at Get Up Baby from earlier in the year. Maybe Richard or someone can chime in with their thoughts?
27: Soriano’s hands, footwork and instincts are all negatives. He’s almost avergae on plays to his right or straight on, but is probably the worst in the business at going to his left. He is significantly (and I mean significantly) worse than every other second baseman in the Majors. Hopefully the guy KT thinks is a star is Nomar and not Soriano.
One thing that caught my attention-if Soriano can’t make plays to his left, is that problem lessened significantly because Adrian Gonzalez is one of the 2 best 1B defensively in the NL?
I think watching Adrian, he certainly makes a lot of plays to his right that other 1B don’t even think about making.
If they do sign Soriano then I suggest extra practice covering 1B for the pitchers!
If I remember right, in last year’s off-season the Padres explored the possibility of Garciaparra at 2nd, but the Padres had some question on whether his throwing motion was suited for 2nd base and whether he could make the pivot. I don’t know enough to make this up, so I must have read it somewhere.
Geoff, thanks for reminding me again why I love this site and your analysis. I think we’re pretty much on the same page 98% of the time.
Kouzmanoff (who, by the way, was nicknamed “Koozy Bear” – I wish I were kidding) is a kid who is going to flat-out hit the baseball. He’s got a great approach to hitting, and doesn’t seem to be the type who’s thinking power first. He reminds me (and I talked to Ed Barnes of Channel 4 about this yesterday on our podcast) of an Adrian Gonzalez-type hitter. I pegged Kouzmanoff as a .280 with 20 homer type hitter (which is what we projected for Adrian before last year), and that’s something Padre fans would have to be happy with. Sure, the Friars need a big bat, but I still think that bat can be had in left field, if not in another position.
The key thing to remember here is that the Friars will have two corner guys under the age of 26 that crush the baseball. Branyan did a nice job in his time in San Diego, but we’ve seen him over the course of a year. I don’t think that’s something we need to see again.
Add to this the acquisition of Brown, who throws the hell out of the baseball, even if he may not know where it’s going all the time. The Angels have had a history of guys like this (Brendan Donnelly is one that comes to mind), and I think Black and/or Balsley can get this guy under control a bit. KT is already expecting him to break camp with the big club.
Barfield’s a really strong young player, but his being dealt, while shocking, is not going to cripple this team. Signing Soriano as a six-year solution at second base, however, just may do so. I saw Soriano in Anaheim, and he takes bad angles to the baseball at second, he jabs at the baseball instead of exhibiting soft hands, and he gets in bad throwing position. The problem with signing Soriano is that he’s going to have to play left, and anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves.
The past 3 to 4 months: Let me explain … no, there is too much. Let me sum up.
Castilla in – Castilla out.
Walker in – Young out.
Branyon in, Walker to 2B, Barfield to Bench.
Bochy out.
Black in.
Kouz in – Barfield out.
The “huge” pending FA moves we are expecting and holes to fill at 2B and LF
At this point, this is like a Vegas cab ride with cab driver Sandy Alderson. We are running stop lights, jumped a couple of curbs, we almost hit some guy with a Utah plate who looks lost and I have no idea how we are going to get where we are supposed to be headed going this way.
I am going to trust that you know what you are doing Sandy because all I can do at this point is take a huge swig of my beer and watch like its a video game all the while thinking, wow, I wouldn’t have done that in my car.
32: That was, if nothing else, quite humorous.
#32: Great post! Like watching someone else play “Grand Theft Auto.”
Counsell 2B
Giles RF
Gonzalez 1B
Soriano LF
Sheffield RF
Cameron CF
Greene SS
Kouz 3B
Like many of us, I am sorry in some ways to see Barfield go, but mostly because he was a home grown player who was respectable. But his numbers were really not very good last year. Sure his average was allright, and he hit for a little more power than I would have thought, especuially playing for San Digo, but he drew just 23 unintentional walks last year, and I would guess he drew even less than that when you consider he batted 8th and was pitched around occasionally. He swings a lot, and he swings and misses a lot. This doesn’t make for a great number 2 hitter, and his speed and power are a bit of a waste batting 8th. Defensively he was fine, but I don’t see him developing into an elite player. With Cleveland he’ll imp-rove a little offensively, but I think Kouzmanoff will ultimately be a little better at the plate. Plus, as Geoff points out, there are far more options at second than at third.
And I really hope the Padres aren’t going after Soriano. I am still a little scared of his defense and inability to draw a walk. I just feel that he’s going to have a massive collapse sometime soon – players of his type don’t tend to age well.
#35-
That’s an interesting lineup – four outfielders and no catcher. Will they even let us play like that? I see a lot of passed balls….
Wow…I heard the Barfield news but thought someone was kidding!
Anyone else think that Marcus Giles is on the way here now? I wonder what we’d have to give up to get him. Linebrink + ?
I also think there’s a fair chance that Sheffield will end up in SD…
Gary Sheffield…..nnnoooooooooooooo!!!
I like Counsell a lot as a backup, not so much as an everyday guy. That’s kind of surprising that the Padres are after Soriano. I’ve never heard so many negatives about a guy with his HR and SB numbers, he’s certainly a polarizing player.
Mark raised a good point about Gonzalez. I think he saved Barfield some errors on bad throws last year so maybe he would help a little with Soriano. Maybe he goes from bloody awful to just awful. Every little bit helps.
PM, this will be theraputic, repeat after me:
Gary Sheffield is an asset.
Gary Sheffield is an asset.
Gary Sheffield is an asset.
Gary Sheffield is an asset.
…and no cheating by removing the last 2 letters…
So, given that he is a lousy 2B option, what do we think of Soriano in LF? Seems a risk at 6 years, probably reasonable at 5 and good move at 4+buyout
If I remember right, Soriano had double the errors at 2b over the last 5 years (2001-2005) than anyone else.
I can say that 40/40 erases a lot of defensive miscues…
I just wish the Pads were able to be this aggressive when Vlad wanted to come here.
RE: 36…Soriano has proven to be an anomaly…Stats guys hate him and talk about how he “can’t” keep this up, but look at the numbers over the past 5 years and you can’t argue with the final results…heck, he even did it in the Grand Canyon Ballpark in DC. I seem to remember reading Rob Neyer predicting a huge fall for him…now a couple of years later admitting that he was wrong on the guy and that he is one of the few that can produce HUGE overall numbers despite the lack of plate discipline.
No, he is not at the top of my list for 2b, but if he will play LF for us, we will be very happy. He improved dramatically in the OF last year and will certainly be average defensively (better than Carlos Lee). He has a body type that projects well as a longer term type player (Tall, thin, long/lanky arms vs. Lee, who, well looks like me).
Jonathan, I was talking to Paul R. (a frequent poster) last night about this. I think he said 5/$75-80. I’d probably do that too, but I prefer Alou or Sheffield plus Zito.
I don’t think there is a pitcher out there who will be comprably as good or as cheap as Alou is offensively and I think Zito is less likely to decline than Soriano…
Maybe it is just me, but I really do think having Gonzalez takes away a lot of the issues with Soriano at 2B-given the available FA choices and already having Johnson/Sledge/McAnulty as somewhat capable replacements in the organization already……I’d much rather have Soriano at 2B then LF.
One of the key questions for me regarding Soriano is if the increase in BB rate last year was a change that he made, or simply a function of being pitched around more then ever before.
Certainly a guy who walks 60+ times and has 90 XBH is worth a ton offensively.
Add Soriano, Alou and Kouzmanof to the lineup in place of Castilla, Barfield and Roberts and I think it is very apparent that the team is a ton better then they were last season.
Peter, usually love your stuff, but as you are aware, our feelings on Zito are not the same…Let’s go into the year with our top 3…sign Eaton and find a #5. I will take our chances with Soriano in LF and let someone else take the growing walks/ERA and decreasing k’s at $15 mil per…
I’d settle for Mulder plus a good bat over Zito with no good bat.
A link to a quote from the Giles Brothers’ agent:
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=MLB&id=3170&line=196522&spln=1
“”If it could work out for Marcus to play with his brother, that would be a great thing,” said Joe Bick, agent to both of the Giles brothers. “It’s one of those things … it’s almost like it’s too much to hope for. We’ll just see how it works out.” It’s believed the Padres and Braves have already discussed a swap. Scott Linebrink could go to Atlanta in a deal, though the Padres would most likely prefer to get a trade done without using him. Nov. 9 – 10:00 am et”
Maybe Todd Walker will be brought back as the 2B now?
I’d have no problem with Linebrink for Marcus Giles.
51: ?
52: No posting images, eh?
I’m also excited about what I hear for Andrew Brown. Sounds like he’s got a power arm, throwing in the upper 90’s.
Zito’s full-season numbers:
‘01: 3.49 ERA, 214.1 IP, 80/205 BB/SO
‘02: 2.75 ERA, 229.1 IP, 78/182 BB/SO
‘03: 3.30 ERA, 231.3 IP, 88/146 BB/SO
‘04: 4.48 ERA, 213.0 IP, 88/146 BB/SO
‘05: 3.86 ERA, 228.1 IP, 89/171 BB/SO
‘06: 3.83 ERA, 221.0 IP, 99/151 BB/S0
He certainly walks more than I’d like, but his walk totals have varied by only 21 BB over 6 seasons. And while he isn’t striking people out like he did his first 2 season, his last 4 seasons K/9 rates have been: 5.67, 6.89, 6.74, and 6.15… Furthermore, while he hasn’t posted any more sexy sub-3.00 ERAs, if we throw out that amazing 2.75 in ‘02 and that awful 4.48 in ‘04, every other ERA is within roughly half of a run of eachother (3.30 to 3.86).
Zito isn’t a prenniel Cy Young candidate, but he doesn’t get hurt, he’s consistent, and he’d make our staff amazingly good.
From my blog:
The Padres scored 731 runs in 2006 while allowing 679; both numbers are among the lowest in all of baseball (four teams scored fewer runs and only the Tigers allowed fewer runs).
&
[With Peavy, Young, Hensley, and Zito] the Padres would have 190ish, 200, 200, and 215 IP from their three remaining + Zito; that’s 805 IP. Every pitching staff in the National League had roughly 1430 to 1460 innings in 2006.
Lastly:
Adding Zito probably subtracts 25 runs from the Padres total. If the Padres again score 730ish runs (I think they’ll improve and score more) and have added Barry Zito, they should give up somewhere in the neighborhood of 650 runs. An 80-plus run differential, should translate to 89 to 95 wins.
I’d sign him.
#49
I would prefer to not lose Linebrink, either. His numbers looked a little off last year, but throw out two weeks in laste July when he was distracted by trade rumors and pitched terribly, and he was a very good pitcher. And in 05 he was the best reliever in baseball, and it wasn’t close. As far as Marcus goes, I wonder if a)his heart trouble from last year is really not going to recur and b)if he is going to regress as much as Brian has – they’re similar players. I like Brian because of his walks and defense, but his power is gone and his middling speed is about gone, too. Marcus’ k-BB ratio is much worse than Brian’s, and he stole just 10 bases last year, in 15 tries. That’s not good, especially for a leadoff hitter, and throw in the fact that all of Marcus’ numbers dropped precipitously last year, I would be hesitant to deal a lot to get him. But if the Braves want to just GIVE him away, we could do worse.
#44
I agree that people have been predicting Soriano’s demise for a while, and he has continued to defy the stats. But here’s a little statistics for you that should give some pause. Career numbers
Player A – Age 35, Career Stats – 280/372/507, 272 HRs, 943 RBI
Player B – age 31, Career Stats – 280/325/510, 208 HRs, 560 RBI
Player B is Alfonso Soriano. Keep in mind that these stats include last season, Soriano’s best, by far.
Player A’s stats also include last season, which was subpar, plus the two previous, which were not good either, Still, player A’s stats are better, across the board, than Soriano’s, even after including 3 seasons of poor play. They might give some insight into the true quality of Soriano’s play – one that may be obscured by 40-steal seasons.
Player A? Ryan Klesko.
My Zito link:
http://padresrundown.blogspot.com/2006/11/future-padre-barry-zito.html
#55
I am with you on Zito. It’s not just that his numbers have been fairly consistent, it’s the health that impresses me. How many stud front-of-roatation pitchers have his record of staying healthy? Just Santana off the top of my head, and Santana hasn’t been at it as long.
If we’re going to spend 15 million on a player, I’d much rather it be Zito or Matsuzaka than Sheffield or Soriano.
55: I’m still unsure about Zito. Long-term $13M+/year contracts for a 29 y/o pitcher just sounds like a bad idea. His production “should” decline every year of such a deal and the last year or two could really end up hobbling the Padres.
#30. Lamar, you’re right. The Padres said they had problems with his “arm slot” on throws from second base. I think this was just a nice way of them saying they didn’t want to spend the money on someone they thought was washed up. Now that he had a productive season again last year for the Dodgers, I wouldn’t be suprised if we are, in fact, looking at him as a possible free agent pickup for our hole at 2B.
Why do I have a feeling that the anti-Zito sentiment — sound as it is — is going to be similar to a “cons list” for just about every supposed quality free agent pitcher this offseason and in the future? I bet you’re going to see few 1 and 2s hit the market, with more teams trying to lock up their pre-FA top of rotation guys when they see the Matt Morrises and Jeff Suppans get $9-$10 million a year for league-average/slightly better results. (I know that I’m ripping off some Buster Olney or Gammons column.) The Twins of all teams gave a 4 yr/$40 million contract to Santana. Probably better return than the Giants are getting from Morris. “Overpay” is going to be the most abused verb of the offseason and I’d rather pay too much for someone closer to No. 2 than No. 4.
Re:61 I think after the Klesko/Nevin era I think we all are leary of signing anyone to a big long term deal. Sure I would love to see Zito, Lee or Soriano in a Padres uni and I wouldn’t mind if the team gave them $12 mil a year but not for 5 years which is what each of them will command.
Re #35: Sorriano has Struggled in the 4 hole, granted its a small sample size but…
Slot / AB / OPS
#1 / 706 / .928
#3 / 557 / .773
#4 /41 / .617
#5 / 573 / .839
Soriano has clearly excelled leading off so I would hope the pads would keep him there (if they sign him which I still dont think will happen).
We get to play w/ 2 RFs next year because we’re awesome
Matty V. was on XX probably on monday or tuesday I can’t remember but his quote went something like… “Padres fans, I hate to break it to you but there is absolutely ZERO chance Barry Zito pitches for us next season”. I don’t know what he knows or thinks he knows working for the organization and all but he said it as if it were a fact or he would be willing to bet his house on it or something. I thought it was interesting but I have not heard anyone else talk about it yet so thought I would share.
This is just for fun but I think i figured out Boch’s ideal lineup for the Giants in 07.
1. Winn RF
2. Visquel SS
3. Finley CF
4. Bonds LF
5. Klesko 1B
6. Nevin 3B
7. Blum 2B
8. Bennett/Fick C
Re: 65, Matty V knows that Zito is represented by Boras which makes it a safe bet that the pads will not even try to deal with him.
The pads keep floating Zito intrest out there for PR reasons, San Diegans love thier own and Zito is a San Diego Kid so they have to say that they are looking at him.
The pads had the best ERA in the NL in 2006 and were 13th in runs scored. Logic tells you that they need to spend money somewhere other than pitching.
What do y’all think about Mark DeRosa? His splits were pretty even. Is someone going to give him a 3 yr/$22M contract or something crazily similar?
David two problems with that…one is that Soriano has put up very solid numbers for a longer time than Klesko…Second, tough to compare those guys b/c of the age difference when they put up the numbers.
I dunno…I like Soriano. Seems like a nice guy who puts up solid numbers year after year. Defensive liability at 2b and adequate in LF…One thing the pads have lacked (maybe forever) is a legit, scary batter. You plug his 40/40 in our line-up and we just became a force…No, I am not on the sign Soriano bandwagon yet, but I am getting there.
I maybe driving the No-Zito bus though…and no, it has nothing to do with my wife “hanging out” with him in HS.
Hanging out in quotes. Such mystery.
Re: 68 I dont think a team will give DeRosa that kind of money becaue last year was really the first year he has put up solid numbers and there is a glut of 2B with similar or better numbers on the market.
I wonder if the pads are even going to think about Loretta? If the pads can re-sign him then that makes the Meredeth/Bard trade that much better.
#69
Klesko has had 7 seasons of excellent play, Soriano 6.
As far as the age difference, the point I was trying to make was this: Klesko, through age 31, was a far better player than Soriano was through age 31. While I don’t have the actual stats of Klesko through age 31, (I could do it manually, but that’s too much work for a blog comment!) considering that his overall numbers are better than Soriano’s, despite Klesko’s 3 down years since turning 31, I would have to assume that Klesko’s stats through age 31 are far superior to Soriano’s – lets say 290/380/530 to Soriano’s 280/325/510. While everybody assumes Soriano is only going to get better, he is at the age that players start to decline. 31 is not young. And if you’re going to give Soriano 15 million dollars, at age 31, then you have to look at what he does better than Klesko at the same age. And the answer is this: Soriano is a slightly better basestealer. He stole 41 bases last year, while being caught an unacceptable 17 times. Klesko, in his age 31 year, stole 23 bases and got caught 4 times. So, considering Klesko was a better hitter at 31 than Soriano (which is statistically certifiable), and they are both terrible fielders, you’re left with an advantage for Soriano of 18 SBs. Is that worth 15 million a year? I venture to say no, it’s not.
And, postscript, the other point I was tring to make is this: Soriano looks good in a uniform, and we think he’s a great player because he is a good athlete and played for the Yankees in their heyday, but, really, at age 31 he’s equal, as a player, to Ryan Klesko. And if the Pads had given Klesko, at age 31, a 15 mil/year contract for 5 years, we would all be up in arms about it, and rightfully so. And that’s why I don’t think SD should entertain 5-year/75 million dollar offers for Soriano. He’s not appreciably better, at age 31, than Ryan Klesko was at age 31.
Just for kicks, here are career OPS+ for Klesko and Soriano through age 31:
Klesko: 134
Soriano: 115
Klesko had a higher OPS+ in each of his first three seasons with the Padres than Soriano had last year.
Rack that up as another fine trade for KT.
Also just to put it in play, I read over at ESPN that Soriano’s agent said that he needs a minimum of a 6 year deal — not 5. Agent-speak or real? If real, teams have to be really careful, or they end up with a Klesko situation.
Gary Sheffield is an asset.
Gary Sheffield is an asset.
Gary Sheffield is an asset.
Gary Sheffield is a…..nnnoooooooooooooooooo!!!!
GY – thanks for the link to the Q&A which you chose to label “general misunderstanding of Moneyball” … right on! “Moneyball” is about “bang for the buck”, and at the time the book was written, that meant “OPB” … today, who knows what it means? Well, it’s SA’s and KT’s job to know what it means today
They think it means trading JB for KK + a pitcher, I’d presume. (btw, I *like* 2-for-1 deals … depth seems an underrated attribute of good MLB teams … ie. “depth” = “Moneyball”, imo)
A team that finishes higher in the game standings than it does in the payroll standings is playing “Moneyball” … teams that consistently make the playoffs with a mid-to-low payroll are playing “Moneyball” well … “Moneyball” is the game within the game! Game on!
What would be so bad about having Todd Walker stay on and play 2nd? I can’t for the life of me remember if he’s on contract for 07 or not. I’m guessing not, or he’d get more mention here, but why not re-sign him? His bat is still good, he can glove the ball, and no long throws from 2B.
His range sucks, so that’s a negative, but much better option I think than trading away Linebrink to get Non-Orange Giles.
I’m still pounding the Sheffield-Cameron-Roberts OF drum. Sheff only costs let’s say $7MM, and assuming you didn’t have to give up one of our young SPs, that leaves you plenty o’ cash to get 1 more starter.
Not to mention the sneaky possibililty of KT standing pat on Peavy-Young-Hensley-Estes-(filler), trading Greene for a good bullpen arm and using the cash left after Sheff to get a SS. Who are the top ‘available’ SS’s this year?
If you guys are going to continue comparing Klesko and Soriano, don’t you need to figure out a way to account for where they were relative to everyone else at the same time? Klesko’s numbers at the time were dwarfed by what the rest of the leage leaders were putting up.
I did a brief check and by HR’s and SLG from ‘02-06, Soriano ranked 9/14/41/12/4 in the league in HR’s and 28/40/95/47/22 in SLG.
From ‘99 to ‘03, Klesko ranked 86/56/39/29/69 in the league in HR’s and 56/71/54/34/130 in SLG.
I had to adjust the SLG for 100 AB’s so it is +/-, but Soriano has been in the top 15 in HRs 4 out of 5 where Klesko’s highest rank was 34 over his best 5 year span. Soriano was top 50 in SLG 4 out of 5 and Klesko was only 1 out of his best 5.
I was blown away by David’s post #56, but I think when you look how they compare relatively to everyone else, there is a little perspective.
Clayton, that pounding is giving me a headache.
JK
What you give up to get Sheffield and get the Yankees to pick up $6m of his contract? I think it would take one of those young pitchers you spoke of… In fact, I don’t think the Yankees will have to pick up much if any of Sheff’s contract. It isn’t a bad contract.
You may be right on the contract…I’m thinking Linebrink, and that may not be enough to knock enough $$ off the $13MM. Hensley either, and that’s the only SP I’d be willing to part with, albeit reluctantly, for a discount on the Sheff.
Still, I gotta find a way to keep OG (orange Giles) out of the lineup.
Wouldn’t this be a fun lineup though:
LF Roberts
2B Walker
1B Gonzalez
RF Sheffield
C Piazza
CF Cameron
3B Kouzy
SS Greene
I get goosebumps just thinking about it.
Haven’t heard any Piazza buzz lately…understand he may be as good as gone w/ Bochy out and the option not picked up, but anyone hear whether there are negotiations ongoing there?
I don’t know on the Piazza contract situation, but I agree, I’d like him back. And yes, I like that lineup, but Giles has more range than Roberts and Sheffield is NOT a GG-caliber defender as is Giles. So now while the offense is improved, the defense is somewhat compromised. And I still don’t know if Roberts is better than Giles offensively. Is he more fun to watch? ABSO-FREAKING-LUTELY! Better? I don’t think so. So the question you have to ask, is do you want style points or wins?
Piazza’a agent says he would seriously entertain coming back, or something like that. It may just be agent-speak, but I think Piazza liked it here, not just becasue of Boch.
Wins!!!!!
And hey Clayton, it isn’t easy being…..orange? oh well, you get the idea.
This from the Pad’s website
“Along with Ramirez, the Chicago Cubs’ third baseman who opted out of his contract to become a free agent, the Padres also could be intrigued with the idea of signing free agent Nomar Garciaparra to play third base. The former All-Star shortstop is coming off a highly productive season at first base for the rival Dodgers.”
and this…
“Towers indicated that the Padres are interested in retaining some of the 11 players from the 2006 club who have filed for free agency.”
and this…
“Fan favorite Klesko showed his bat speed had returned in nine late season/postseason at-bats after shoulder surgery, and he could be valuable off the bench at first base and in left field if he doesn’t find a club that wants him to play regularly.”
The above mentioned article kind of sounds like KT is toning down his “Big-Stick, Big-$” hitter a little bit and is considering on going with someone a little more middle of the road.
Hmmmm!
How do you guy’s and gal’s make a short link out of a long/ugly URL? I apologize for not linking the affore mentioned article, but it is an awful looking link.
OT, The A’s have annoucned a new ballpark in Fremont about 25 miles south of Oakland. They are even considering renaming the team something like the “Fremont A’s” or the “Silicon Valley A’s”
Fremont I could live with (but who outside of California has heard of it), but not the SV A’s, that sound idiotic. I would be going ballistic if I were an Oakland A’s fan.
I disagree. First, Kouzmanoff is the kind of hitter we would salivate over if he already had several years in the bigs. He’s good. Secondly, I still think it’s highly likely we get a “big name” player.
Mighty egotistical words coming from the mouth of Sheffield “If it wasn’t for me the first year, in 2004, we wouldn’t have made the playoffs. I went out and put up big numbers against Boston for us to win that division. … It wasn’t some mystery man. It was myself.”
Wow, do we really want that kind of ego on this team? Even if what he said is true, that he was the person responsible for the Yankees making the PO’s, he shouldn’t say it publicly. It destroys his relationship with the rest of the team.
Peter, I do too, but I think the overall tone of KT in the article sounds like he is laying the groundwork to maybe, just maybe, NOT make a “big name” move.
I don’t want a BIG NAME. I want a big-time player. Whether that’s a first year rookie (Kouzmanoff), an import (Iwamura), or the sexiest FA name on the market (Soriano)… I want what helps us most and I trust Alderson and Towers to do a better than average job.
I think if the team follows up this trade by signing Mark Loretta or Craig Counsell to play second base, it will be a net negative (barring Andrew Brown turning into Scott Linebrink, which is possible). Todd Walker would be acceptable; he had similar production to Barfield last year and could probably do the same for at least one more year. (non-orange) Giles, Iwamura, or Durham would be preferred.
On Soriano, last year the guy was a star last year. If we could get 100% of that production for two years, then a modest decline over the last three or four years of the contract, that will be a great signing. The problem is, the last two years in Texas he hit .268/.309/.512 and .280/.324.484. A five or six year huge contract is a big gamble for a player that has been a star for only one of the past three years.
#89: I use tinyurl.com. I’ve also installed a plugin on the blog that automatically truncates URLs so they won’t look ugly, so feel free to use the long version if you’d like. Go on, get crazy.
Didn’t think I’d be adjusting to LAB (Life After Bochy) so quickly. I like the Black choice, as he’s an SD guy and was the closest choice to Bochy in demeanor available.
Kouzmanoff’s back injury was due to a fall, not something chronic like a herniated disk. He’s still relatively young and his numbers suggest he has recovered. While hamstring issues can be nagging, they are more of a concern for outfielders and base stealers. Another good move by KT-SA.
I wouldn’t mind seeing a rotation of Soriano, Garciaparra, Kouzmanoff and Branyan for LF, 3B, 2B, and an occasional spell for Adrian at 1st. Have viable options if an injury occurs. Soriano would get no more than 5-yrs. (if that), and there would have to be be no no-trade clause. Still, Garciaparra at 2 years (can play 1st, SS, 3B, maybe 2B and even OF and would be a great option off the bench) seems more like a KT move than Soriano, and I’d be surprised if the Pads sign either of them.
Hey guys. Let’s take Pat Burrell off of the Phillies hands, since they are apparently really desperate to be rid of him. Not sure if he would accept a trade to San Diego, but he has been much more consistent than Soriano and he is 2 years younger. Burrell had a .890 OPS last year, with a higher OPS on the road than at home. There was talk the Phillies were going to accept Armando Benitez for Burrell, so surely we could get this done with Linebrink.
If you insist on beating the Drum for Sheff, I will have to start beating the drum for Bonds….
Bonds, Camron, Giles….Bonds, Camron, Giles….Bonds, Camron, Giles
Bochy would probably welcome that.
Bet bonds could put in the Giles porch better then the Orange Man.
98: Burrell would be a solid acquisition. I’d rather trade for Burrell than sign Sorian.
99: If he’s healthy…
Burrell doesn’t have great range, but he’s solid and has a good arm. Pretty sure he can hit a little, too.
How about Bret Boone for 2B?
REACTION!!!
Over the last three years of Boone’s career, he was a worse fielder than Soriano. True story.
Potential Batting order for 2007:
LF- Marcus Giles
RF- Brian Giles
2B- Bret Boone
3B- Aaron Boone (Remeber his big Home Run for the Yankees?)
etc….
Another name in the LF sweepstakes: J.D. Drew opted out of his contract so he’s a free agent now. He was due $33 million over three years if he exercised his option.
RE: 106
How anyone could not exercise that kind of option is beyond me. He might put up Brian Giles type power numbers playing 81 games at Petco.
I am feeling another bargain for LF. Maybe via a trade. I just don’t see them spending foolishly on big-name free agents, despite the sudden windfall.
RE: 104
I believe it Richard! Living up here in Olympia, WA I saw plenty of, how can I put this nicely, routine grounders somehow “sneak” past Boone for singles. When he started to boot groundballs on top of that, his lone defensive asset (glove) was effectively nullified. He is a good example of a player who dosen’t know when to hang it up, and with those Mariner teams, there were at least a half dozen players fitting that discription. Does anyone remember John Olerud or Wiki Gonzalez!:)
Richard,
Why are the Phillies, the Philly writers, and their fans so eager to get rid of Burrell? Seems like just about every team would love Soriano — at least it was that way at the all-star break (short-term, though) — despite his laziness and self-absorption. Just perception? I’d prefer to avoid both of them and their big contracts and go after another starter, and I think KT-SA will.
As for stolen bases (Roberts) — why many managers have traditionally said their is no substitute for speed on the base paths — there are so many intangibles that are difficult to quantify when defining their importance. For example, more fastballs thrown to the batter, easier to guess certain pitches depending on the count, a routine grounder (hit-and-run) turning into runners on the corners, pitchers losing focus and making more mistake pitches, pitchers having to throw better pitches to avoid putting a speedy runner in scoring position, etc. Just counting stolen bases and saying they account for these many runs is absurd. There is a lot more to it than just saying it’s the difference between having a runnner on first and one on second. The mere ability to steal a base — depending on your lineup — can change a game dramatically.
#80
I think if you want to compare a player to the league, as you desire, then you have to look at OPS+, as Geoff has in post #74. This is a very simple but effective measurement of a player’s value relative to the league – HRs and Slg% are a fairly arbitrary set of stats – OPS is a better overall measure because it measures the two most important basic offensive stats, not just one of them. OPS+ also compares a player to his league, which is what is important. A score of 100 is a league-average player.
Through age 31, Klesko’s OPS was 34% better than his league.
Soriano, through age 31, was 15% better than his league.
Am I trying to argue that Soriano is worse than Klesko? No. I don’t think there’s much difference between them at age 31, though. Klesko had a platoon disadvantage more pronounced than Soriano’s, and I don’t think 40 steals is anything to scoff at. It’s possible Soriano might get a little better, or at least stay at this level of production for a couple seasons. Of course, the same could have been said about Klesko at 31.
What I am trying to argue is this: through age 31, Klesko was a demonstrably better offensive player than Soriano at the same age, and he still wasn’t worth a 6 year, 90 million dollar contract (can you imagine the bind the Pads would be in if they had given a deal like that to him?). And Soriano, for all the flashy baubles, isn’t worth it either.
Rosenthal reports that Yankees turned down Linebrink for Sheffield.
I think by now I have finally learned that Rosenthal has no good source within the Padres organization…..I mean Jason Kendall is a Padre right?
Oh and Greg Maddux signed that FA deal here a few years ago right?
I am very wary of any of the big names. The Moneyball idea is bang for the buck, as others have stated. I think buying players is like buying stocks; sure Google is going to earn a ton of money, but you have to pay so much for it. I much prefer, and have done much better, finding those lesser known stocks that aren’t as hot but much less valued. So if Lee, Soriano or Zito lands in SD, given the interest and star caliber, the market will bid up the price very high. I think some of this is driven by the fact that some GM’s still like bringing home the big name to show the fans they are serious about winning. We don’t want that.
If they perform in line with the best seasons through the whole contract period, then they are good signings. But it is very risky. If they decline, then you spending a lot of money and getting nothing back. We cannot afford that. Yankees, Boston, LA, sure; not SD.
Look at the FA’s that we have picked up in recent years: Loretta, Roberts, Piazza, Woody, Giles (exception): good values, but not hotly sought after so we got solid players at good prices (again, Giles was a bit different, but the Pads seemed to acknowledge that they were overpaying to make sure the offense had something). I would much rather fill out a team that way; yes, there are players worth paying a lot for, but you really want those guys to be a lock. Beltran, Rolen, A-Rod, Manny come to mind. Zito consistency qualifies, but who would you rather have, Young or Zito? Kind of a toss up to me. So, we got Young out of nowhere. Zito is steady, quality but will not be worth the money for team with our budget capacity. Maybe our extra budget allows us to go a bit more up-market in the FA’s, but don’t want to go premium.
Soriano looks very volatile; in the last six years, in three of them he has had OPS of 736, 807, 821, these latter two in Texas, where the ballpark inflated his numbers. Yes, in other three seasons he had great seasons, but given the price tag he is going to command, no way.
Lee is a solid player, with an OPS in the mid to upper 800s. I would like someone like that, but not for a crazy price. He is 30 years old, so a 3-4 year deal would be max. For an OK price, sure, but my guess is that he will command a lot more.
Yes, it would be nice to have a lot more offense, but remember….
Team OPS for the Padres with NL rank:
Road………..Home
Petco
2006: 789 (2)…….706 (16)
2005: 741 (7)…….707 (15)
2004: 787 (2)…….722 (14)
Qualcomm
2003: 731 (10)…..711 (14)
2002: 691 (15)…..714 (12)
This huge gap between home and road emerged with Petco. Again, my hypothesis is that our offense has been pretty darn good, just that Petco is pretty impossible to have good offensive numbers. Yes, we have holes to fill, but the team has done it, historically, without blowing a bunch of cash on some big name free agents. I would like to see that trend continue.
109: I’ll look into the first part later and answer back.
As for speed and its effects… they have been studied. BP has baserunning stats (first to third, that sort of thing). The Book looked at the effect of speed on hitters. Hitters’ production go up with a man on base (regardless of basestealing prowess). However, after an attempted steal, their production takes a dive. Apparently hitters are the ones affected by stolen base threats.
Why do managers claim the things they do? Why did Dusty Baker (3 time manager of the year) insist on playing Neifi Perez and claim that high OBPs result in “clogging the bases?” Why did the great Bruce Bochy routinely pencil in Vinny Castilla and refuse to take direction from the front office? Just because guys have been around a long time doesn’t mean that they automatically know more than everyone else.
113: Good stuff.
109: Burrell signed a big contract and the following year batted .209. He strikes out a lot. I think he’s thought to be less than clutch. There’s a desire to move in a new direction in general. A lot of writers and fans aren’t terribly bright.
He’s been a pretty damn good hitter since the first year of his contract and he can play a decent left field.
John Donovan has the sober “don’t be a dope and sign a pitcher for five years” story posted on si.com. Good stuff.
JD Drew – what a dirtbag. Yeah, I know bizness is bizness and the Dodgers didn’t have to give him that clause. I didn’t call Aramis Ramirez a dirtbag, but for some reason it seems to fit Drew. Would we want that guy roaming RF in Petco? Good all-around player but the old-school “soul” guy in me says no way. I hope it backfires – the same way I looked forward to the D’Backs looking like morons for the Ramon Ortiz contract.
That Rosenthal article is… interesting. “continuing their pursuit of Wes Helms”? I must have missed that rumor. So M. Giles would cost us Linebrink and we’d have to pay him $5.5 million. Maybe we’d be better off signing Loretta or Kennedy for a couple million and spending the extra money on LF/SP?
I know very little about Burrell but I always give the benefit of the doubt to anyone that gets on the bad side of Philly fans. They don’t seem to be the fairest judge of talent.
Drew opting out really hurts the Dodgers. Their current outfield is Ethier, Kemp, and nobody, really, maybe Werth. It looks like they’ll have to panic and overpay someone like Soriano or Lee and Matthews Jr. Great to see as a Padre fan, although facing Soriano next year wouldn’t be so great.
RE Soriano and Klesko, you need to compare apples to apples with them. Luckily Klesko’s first real full time season came at age 25, the same age as Soriano. When you look at each of their numbers through the first 6 full big league seasons you’ll find Klesko comes out at .281/.365/.515, considerably lower than David’s optimistic projections and not much different than Soriano’s .280/.325/.510.
Also, to say Klesko is not much different as a base stealer is bordering on the absurd. He had 66 SB’s in those 6 seasons and a 74% success rate; perfectly acceptable in terms of success, but nowhere near Soriano who has a 77% success rate and 210 SB’s. To say his 17 CS are unacceptable is to ignore the fact that he was still successful 70% of the time last season even while running more than normal to get the 40/40.
OPS+ definitely goes to Klesko at 127, 111, 115, 133, 137, 145, while Soriano is 92, 131, 128, 98, 110, 132. One thing OPS+ does not account for though is SB’s, which would bump up Soriano’s SLG and certainly help his team offensively.
All that being said, I still would not want to see him playing second base for us, but I would love to see him leadoff and play LF, where he would be superior to Klesko both offensively and defensively. 31 is still a player’s prime, it is not the beginning of decline and hasn’t been for some time. With the improvements in training and nutrition, not to mention health care, players are maintaining their prime years into their mid 30’s with greater frequency than in year’s past.
I don’t think a five year contract for Soriano is a risk at all. Having an average to slightly below average LF next to Cameron is not a problem, but having a leadoff hitter who is nearly a lock to go 30/30 is a HUGE problem, for the opposing team.
RE: 114, 116
Thanks. So you think Burrell might be the guy to after for LF?
How about this for a speedy lineup:
Giles
Cameron
Garciaparra
Piazza/Bard
Adrian
Burrell
Greene
Kouzmanoff
Terry Forster
What’s the record for fewest triples ever by a team?
RE: Why did the great Bruce Bochy routinely pencil in Vinny Castilla and refuse to take direction from the front office?
What other options did Bochy have? Bellhorn? At least Vinny gave you solid defense. Why did KT pay Vinny a decent salary and trade away a starter for him if he didn’t want Bochy to use him? What was the front office directing him to do?
One more thing, Richard: What would be your ideal lineup/rotation for next year, assuming the Padres have approx. $30 mill. to spend?
120.
You forgot to break down the steroid factor. While coming up with the Braves Klesko routinely had guys in the locker room plunge juice filled needles into his ass. Can someone please compare the two players testosterone levels through those years?
photo
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/photo?slug=72c7882f8a3c4986a184a2bd08880488.padres_black_baseball_cadp105&prov=ap
see that thing (World Series ring?). That’s why the players should listen to Bud Black.
How do you think this effects the Balsley situation and who else stays here or goes up the coast to join Bochy.
#120
The most important offensive statistic is OBP. Soriano’s 325 doesn’t cut it for a leadoff hitter. And I never argued that Klesko was comparaable as a basestealer to Soriano (although the difference between 74% and 77% is statistically meaningless). I suggested that the chief advantage Soriano holds is his basestealing ability (which wasn’t good last year – 70% is a bad success rate, and giving up 17 outs on the bases because you’re trying to go 40/40 in your FA year is pure selfishness), and that basestealing alone isn’t worth 90 million dollars over 6 years.
No Linebrink for the Sheff huh? Too bad. Wonder what the contract dollars were in that discussion…
I’m definitely down on trading Liney for the Notorious NOG (non-orange Giles). I feel we should be in a subtractive mode v/v the family Giles, not in an additive one. I realize that will come as a shock coming from me.
Were the Bonds references above (99, 101) sarcasm? I hope so…I don’t care if he’s vintage, ‘roided up, c. 2001 Bonds – I don’t want him near this team. Sure it would jack up the offense, but if I’m no longer able to cheer for the team, who cares?
I’m starting to wonder if KT’s in-season and recent comments are a bit of a smokescreen regarding having a willingness to spend big dollars. Just blowing cash for the sake of blowing cash is NOT a SA type of thing to do, and it’s not in KT’s history either (though in fairness I don’t think he’s ever had resources like he does this offseason).
Here’s my updated prediction – no BIG names. A couple moderate names like Garciaparra and Piazza plus a stocked bench and bullpen. He’ll go through about 2/3 of the $30MM that was freed up. I would not be shocked to see Klesko at about $3MM / yr for 2 to play a utility role. It would be surprising, given they’ve already picked up Branyan’s option to do the same thing, but not shocking. I’m basing that on a belief that Ryno really won’t get a warm reception in the FA market based on less than a dozen AB’s at the end of the year, and if he has value really only the Padres would be close enough to his rehab, etc. to know it.
I would be surprised by any Wes Helms / Aaron Boone type guys – mediocre vets. I think what $30MM of in-year payroll flexibility buys you is the ability to just say no to that sort of player (no more Bellhorns, in other words). Instead, you end up with the Nomar type, who’s pricier, has injury risk and is on the downside of their peak, but gives you more while healthy than Bellhorn/Helms/etc. With extra cash you can insure yourself to that injury risk on the bench…something you can’t afford when you’re scraping by for dollars, so you instead go get mediocre but healthy guys so you’re not paying 2 guys to man 1 position.
Right on, BigKTfan (#109)…disruptive baserunners are far more valuable than the stats indicate. I say believe what you see – fast guys rattle pitchers and make the most out of their own and other’s efforts (extra bases, steals, etc.). I think Jose Reyes is a good example of a guy who may not generate a ton of power swinging the bat, but steals a base to turn a weak grounder he beat out into effectively a double; scores from first to give another guy an RBI they wouldn’t have otherwise gotten on that particular swing, etc. And that has nothing at all to do w/ “style points”.
Richard, per your comment on the production of hitters going down after an attempted steal…that doesn’t seem to make intuitive sense. I can’t fit an explanation to it, maybe “uh oh, now I really have to come through with a hit”? Why would a hitter feel more pressure than he already does?
With Barfield gone and Roberts effectively gone, we will most likely have the OG leading off. Some folks on this Blog think that’s a great thing, b/c they assume OG’s walk totals will be constant. My opinion, is: watch what happens to his walk totals when he’s followed by the #2 guy not the #4 guy. I think he’ll see a lot more pitches in the strike zone and continue to do less and less with them.
We’ll end up with a leadoff guy hitting around .260, slugging only like .350 (continuing the power decline) and getting on at a subpar .300 clip as his BB’s get cut in half.
I also think claiming he plays “GG-caliber defense” is false. Defensive value stats are murky at best, you only need to watch him to see he’s getting slower to the ball and has a mediocre at best arm.
124.
Soriano’s OBP was 3rd best in MLB amoung leadoff hitters.
127: What’s that tell you about leadoff hitters? We don’t have very many good ones. Where’s the next Rickey or Rock Raines? We can’t expect Soriano to get .351 again, not when he’s .325 career guy. I just don’t see why most teams would want that leading off. Put him behind Gonzalez. I don’t put too much stock in his lineup splits from one year.
#120 Is it possible that players have been playing better into their mid-30’s due to help from the scientific community (and I don’t mean sports/massage therapists or surgeons)? It seems like a number of players are down-sized from a few years ago, and overall numbers seem to be, in general, a little less impressive than in years past. I am speaking only from an overall perception and not really from any analysis. I am just saying that I think many players are more clean today than they were 1-2 years ago. I also think this will only become more obvious in the years to come.
Okay, here’s my 2006 roster, for whatever it’s worth
C: Piazza or Bard
1b:Gonzalez
2B:Iwamura
SS:Greene
3B:Kouzmanoff/Branyan
UT/IF/Gets 300 ABs all over the field: DeRosa
RF:Giles
CF:Cameron
LF:Sheffield if we can get him cheap
OF/Johnson/Sledge (if we can’t get Sheff for cheap)
As far as other OFs go, I’d take Drew over Lee or Soriano, and Gonzalez as a super sub OF. Dude hit 50+ doubles last year.
Rotation would be Peavy/Young/Zito/Hensley/Thompson or Padilla.
Bullpen would be similar to last year, maybe a guy like Dotel to take pressure off Linebrink.
Bench:
Walker
Delucci
Johnson/Sledge/McAnulty (pick 2)
DeRosa or Counsell
Bard/Bowen
Re: 130
David-you’ve added quite a bit of payroll for next year in this roster, more than the 30M that we’ve talked about.
Iwamura-big upfront cost plus at least 4M/year
DeRosa-I’d be surprised if he didn’t find 3-5M/yr from someone
Sheffield-maybe 10M if Yanks pay 3M
Zito-Everything you read makes it look like 12M is conservative for him.
Piazza-He’s got to cost at least 4M after last season.
That’s an addition of almost 40M without taking into account the posting fee for Iwamura or resigning Walker and signing Delucci.
I’m also pretty sure Iwamura has publicly said he doesn’t want to play 2B.
Criticism noted (and warranted).
This is just an ideal roster, one I think we could win with. Obviously not gonna happen, but this would be a good team. DeRosa will definitely get starter money somewhere, and while Iwamura’s posting fee isn’t going to be huge, if he doesn’t want to play seciond then I think the next best option is some veteran placeholder like Counsell or Loretta or Kennedy or even Belliard. I am also pretty sure SD doesn’t get Piazza back, but I think they should. Payroll is anissue, sure, but the Pads are saving 22 million dolars just with Klesko and Park – if they are planning an increase anyway, say a 10-15 million dolar increase all these guys should be obtainable.
But we’ll probably open the season with Bret Boone at second and Jeromy Burnitz in left. They always played well against us!
Of all the stories I have read I think your synopsis was spot on, thanks!
jimbo
Does it bother anyone that Kouzmanoff could have been picked up last December during the Rule V Draft for a mere $50,000, but that not a single team chose to do so?
Furthermore, Brown was not expected to make the Indians next season and would have been released. It sounds like there isn’t too much to get excited about concerning him…