Your Predictions for 2008?

From esteemed reader LynchMob comes this excellent idea for a post on the eve of Opening Day: “provide us with a list of questions which you want us, the commenters, to go ‘on the record’ with”; he then poses several questions, which you will find below.

This might be fun to peek back at throughout the season. I’ll lead off with my responses; feel free to follow…

  1. How many wins for the Padres in 2008?
    They’ll go 86-76.
  2. Is this 2008 team better or worse than the 2007 team? Why?
    About the same. Randy Wolf and Tadahito Iguchi should represent upgrades over David Wells and Marcus Giles, while Jim Edmonds won’t produce like Mike Cameron.
  3. Where will they finish in the NL West?
    Second place.
  4. What are their chances of making the playoffs? Winning a playoff series? Winning it all?
    They have about a 35-40% chance of making the playoffs. After that, who knows? I’ll say 15-20% chance of winning a series, and 3% chance of winning it all.
  5. What player(s) do you think is most likely to exceed expectations?
    Scott Hairston.
  6. What player(s) do you think is most likely to disappoint?
    Edmonds.
  7. Is there a move (or 2 or 3) which you wish the Padres had made this offseason? Explain what you think will actually happen in 2008 compared to what you would have projected to happen if they had made that move (or 2 or 3).
    More help for the back of the rotation; Livan Hernandez or Kyle Lohse would have been nice. A better contingency plan for center field. Not sure those would be enough for the Padres to win the division, but they might mean the difference between winning the wild card or not.
  8. What minor leaguers do you expect to make a contribution to the 2008 Padres?
    Chase Headley, possibly Wade LeBlanc and/or some relievers (Will Startup? Mauro Zarate?)
  9. When will Chase Headley get called up? Will he stick? Will he get ROY votes? What are his chances for NL ROY?
    He’ll be up mid-May and it will be for good. Even if he plays well, he won’t get ROY consideration because most voters either don’t know or don’t care about park effects.
  10. Who will be the first Padre to be released? When?
    Wil Ledezma. April 28.
  11. What kind of in-season trades do you think the Padres will make? Any in April?
    They might acquire more pitching depth if possible. If Edmonds’ injuries linger, depending on how well Hairston performs in center, they might make a play there as well.
  12. Any players you don’t expect to be healthy for a full season (besides Edmonds)?
    Brian Giles and Wolf are obvious choices. I also have concerns about Heath Bell because of last year’s workload. I hope I’m wrong; the Padres need him.
  13. Do you have any clear picks for division winners? Pennant winners? World Champion?
    Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks. Wild cards are Indians and Phillies. Arizona beats Detroit in the World Series.

Those are mine. What are yours?

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25 Responses »

  1. Great Idea GY and LM!

    How many wins for the Padres in 2008?
    80-82 I don’t mean to be pessimistic (I really don’t) but I think there will be a few key injuries early on and by the ASB the padres will pull up a lot of the prospects we have been waiting to see and starting to prepare for future NL west dominance!

    Is this 2008 team better or worse than the 2007 team? Why?
    Better from a talent perspective but I just think this team is lot more fragile than last years.

    Where will they finish in the NL West?
    Fourth – D-backs 88-74, Rockies 84-78, Dodgers 83-79, Padres 80-82, Giants 62-100.

    What are their chances of making the playoffs? Winning a playoff series? Winning it all?
    I think they have about a 25% chance of making the playoffs a 20% chance of winning a series, and 1% chance of winning it all. To me it basically boils down to how healthy their starts can stay if they have Peavy, Young and one of Maddux/Wolf/Prior at 100% going into the playoffs I think they have a great shot at making it out of the first round but to me that is a big if.

    What player(s) do you think is most likely to exceed expectations?
    P-Mac! And Germano

    What player(s) do you think is most likely to disappoint?
    Edmonds, Giles and Maddux.

    Is there a move (or 2 or 3) which you wish the Padres had made this offseason? Explain what you think will actually happen in 2008 compared to what you would have projected to happen if they had made that move (or 2 or 3).
    I would have liked to see them trade Barrett for Nady (not sure which side objected to this though). I would have also liked to see them trade for a young CF like Willits or DeJesus. I guess I have no faith in Giles and Edmonds and if they both go down the Padres will have an OF of players who have never played a full season in the bigs.

    What minor leaguers do you expect to make a contribution to the 2008 Padres?
    Chase Headley, Matt Antonelli, Chad Huffman, Colt Morton, Wade LeBlanc, Josh Geer, Will Startup, Edgar Gonzalez, like I said I think they are going to pull up a lot of their future stars if they have a rash of injuries and are 10 games out by the ASB.

    When will Chase Headley get called up? Will he stick? Will he get ROY votes? What are his chances for NL ROY?
    I think he will be up by the ASB, I think he will stick and will be the Padres starting LF in 09, because he will only be up for half the season I do not see him getting any ROY votes.

    Who will be the first Padre to be released? When?
    Jody Guret whenever Edmunds comes off the DL.

    What kind of in-season trades do you think the Padres will make? Any in April?
    They may trade Guret or P-Mac in April when Edmonds comes back but will be a minor move, also if Barrett gets off to a good start I think they may trade him as well. I think they’ll trade Clark and possibly Germano at the trade deadline.

    Any players you don’t expect to be healthy for a full season (besides Edmonds)?
    Brian Giles, Randy Wolf, Hoffy, and Greene.

    Do you have any clear picks for division winners? Pennant winners? World Champion?
    ALE Red Sox, ALC Tigers, ALW Angles, ALWC Yankees, NLE Braves, NLC Brewers, NLW D-Backs NLWC Mets. The Red Sox beat the Braves in 5 games in the WS.

  2. 1. They’ll go 83-79.
    2. Worse. While the infield and pitching are solid, I think our outfield defense (even with Edmonds) will be lacking and lead to more runs given up, even as the pitchers turn in performances equal to our better than last season.
    3. Third place behind Arizona and LA.
    4. They have about a 30% chance of making the playoffs, 20% chance of winning a series, and 5% chance of winning it all.
    5. Brian Giles.
    6. Jim Edmonds.
    7. Agree with Geoff. A better plan for center field. I didn’t like the haste with which they brought Edmonds in when there were plenty of options available. I would have liked to have seen Coco Crisp in a Padre uniform. His defense alone would have legitimized his presence.
    8. Chase Headley, Josh Geer, & Caesar Carillo late in the year in a bullpen role.
    9. Chase will be back in June to play third to cover a Kouz trip to the DL. He will then stick around to play a little left and a little 3B. Even if he plays well, he won’t get ROY consideration because he won’t play enough and will be platooned in left with Hairston.
    10. Enrique Gonzalez. May 13.
    11. They will trade for a CF in early June after Edmonds pulls another muscle in his leg and Hairston demonstrates that he can’t cover CF adequately in PETCO while flanked by Giles/P-Mac/Huber/Headley.
    12. Kouz, Greene, Hairston, Chris Young.
    13. Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Brewers, Diamondbacks. Wild cards are Yankees and Dodgers. Boston beats Diamondbacks in the World Series.

  3. 1. 91 wins
    2. Better: Deeper pitching making the late season collapse less likely.
    3. 1st
    4. 75% to make the playoffs, 50% to win a series, 5% to win it all
    5. Kouzmanoff: Second half was no fluke.
    6. Edmonds: “Old and in way that’s what I heard him say”
    7. Fukudome: Replace Edmonds with Fukudome and they run away and hide.
    8. Headley will be a force, sooner rather than later.
    9. Chase will come up early and stick. No rookie of the year
    10. Gerut: Early April
    11. They will make a move for a AA or AAA center field prospect.
    12. Wolf: Wolf will go down when Prior comes up.

  4. You are all avoiding the big question.

    Which color will win the most Scoreboard Surprise boat races?

  5. #4: LOL. Hey, anyone at Friday night’s game notice how much tougher the hat shuffle is now?

  6. Cool …

    1. I’ll go 85-77, but that may change by tonight/tomorrow when I make my “official” projections … er, guesses …
    2. Slightly worse.
    3. Second behind Arizona.
    4. 35% playoffs, 20% playoff series, 5% winning it all.
    5. Kevin Kouzmanoff.
    6. Chris Young.
    7. Another starter for the back of the rotation. Maybe a 2 win improvement.
    8. Headley
    9. I’ll say when he comes up he sticks, but he won’t have much of a chance for ROY because of the late start and park.
    10. Gerut in late April maybe …
    11. Pitching depth, outfield
    12. Young, Edmonds, Giles, Wolf
    13. I like the Red Sox in the AL and the Mets in the NL.

  7. Hey all, wanted to chime in on some of these things.

    I think the padres will be close to Matt Vs “reagan era fastball” (mid 80s) in wins this year. I dont think the roster as currently constituted is really capable of 85 wins, but my feel is that the roster will undergo a lot of change early in the year. I agree with Geoff that if Bell gets hurt it could drop our win total into the 70s. Im not so sure on the objective statistics but subjectively it felt we leaned on him a hell of a lot last year, especially down the stretch. Everyone else in our bullpen seems like a situational-system guy, where if you take them out of their niche they seem a lot less effective. This is probably true throughout baseball, but good teams always seem to have that guy that can come in and take over, regardless of situation. What Bell did against Colorado last year has been way overlooked. He was amazing, and he was THAT guy. I hope he stays healthy.

    I like P-MAC but I dont think the Padres Brass does. It will be real interesting to see what happens when Edmonds comes off the DL. I think they could stick with Gerut, and use defensive versatility as their reason. I do think the suprise of the year could be Huber, as he seems to be more of the type of hitter the Brass wants. I call it Petco Power. Right handed, line drive, pull oriented power. They have to be athletes too to work defensively in Petco. Hariston has that type of power, which is why I think he will have a good year, better than expected. some will say Jack Cust had that power, but then again he couldnt play any defense.

    I think the reasons the padres get a lot of slack from their fans is that they never make the big splashy move in trades or free agency. Secretly, we all miss that one year of Greg Vaughn (dude was probably so juiced) and want that intimidating crusher in the lineup. Greg Vaughn is probably a bad example, but longtime fans know what im talking about. When I was 17 or 18 I went to a game with my dad against the Cardinals. I think it might have been the playoffs, but we were losing late and someone got on and then Caminiti came to the plate…and everyone in the place just knew that Cammy (poor cammy, so juiced) was going to tie that game with a homerun. It was palpable. And he did, even though we lost the game. I like our team, but with the possible exception of Adrian (on the road Adrain or “OTRA” for you spanish speakers out there) we just dont have that type of player.

    Anyway, I always want the Brass to make those kinds of big moves, just to get a Hero or two. but those kinds of mashers are usually overpaid and rarely come available, which is why the team is smart in not allowing the hero worshipping whims of the fanbase to dictate its decisions on how to win baseball games. But, as ironic as it seems, until they pony up and make the “bad” decision to overpay a superstar (and not a 4 years past his prime Piazza either) most of the casual fans will remain indifferent to some really good purist baseball.

    Quite a rant but what Im trying to say is that A) people will get hurt in the outfield this year B). the padres will make interesting and unexpected trades (maybe PMAC) for prospects. C) they will turn those prospects into non superstar but highly efficient random baseball dudes with unrecognizable names from boring franchises like the brewers or rangers or Royals. D) aforementioned random dudes will play good baseball for Petco and outperform the majority of overpaid “regulars” and the Pads will compete. Not Dominate, but compete. Trust in the Man Genius KT and his wary overseers, and lets play some ball. Oh and thanks Geoff for Ducksnorts.

  8. 1. 88-74
    2. slightly better… but only because Marcus Giles, April Kouz and LF before Milton Bradley were so very bad.
    3. 1st narrowly over AZ
    4. 60% to make playoffs, 50% to win first series and 5% to win it all
    5. Brian Giles… yeah, I think Headley and others are going to have breakout seasons, but since everyone expects them to have breakout seasons it will be harder for them to exceed expectations. I think Giles will stay healthy and regain 2003-2005 form… and I don’t think many expect him to.
    6. Scott Hairston… again this is due to expectations… I think Hairston will do OK and stay on the roster all year, but compared to his .287 at the end of last season, .240 will be a disappointment, also I don’t think he’ll do very well in CF when Edmonds does his 2nd and 3rd trips to the DL.
    7. I would have liked to see Torii Hunter instead of Edmonds in CF, but money is money… also… would it kill us to trade for some speed? I guess I just miss Eric Owens…
    8. Yeah, Headley’s gonna be good.
    9. Headley will come up in May after proving he can play OF. He’ll play well enough to keep the starting LF job, but won’t get ROY consideration, because he just won’t quite be good enough yet… I expect him to play well, but not well enough to turn heads.
    10. Something’s got to give when Edmonds comes back… probably Gerut because P-mac will be strong in the first few games and I think they’re pretty sweet on Huber or they wouldn’t have traded for him.
    11. By Edmonds’s second stint on the DL they’ll be shopping some pitching depth for a speedy CF. Depending on how Prior, Estes, Wolf, Hensley and Stauffer recover and on how LeBlanc, Germano and Rusch do, we could find ourselves with a couple of extra arms.
    12. Wolf… and I’d like to see Hoffy go a whole season, but…
    13. Mets, Cubs, Padres, wild card D-Backs… Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, wild card Yankees. Mets beat us in the NLCS and go on to beat the Tigers in the World Series.

  9. 1 84-78
    2 About the same.
    3 2nd
    4 40%, 20%, 5%
    5 Brian Giles
    6 Jim Edmonds
    7 Not really.
    8 Chase Headley, Matt Antonelli
    9 Early May, Yes, Yes, Nil
    10 Wil Ledezma, Early May
    11 Trade a Reliever for Prospect(s)
    12 Randy Wolf
    13 Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks. WC Indians and Brewers. Sox over Mets in WS.

  10. 1. 91-71!
    2. Better. Enough of an upgrade at second and third and in the rotation to weather a downgrade in the outfield.
    3. First! Division title!
    4. 40% chance of the playoffs, 21% chance of winning a series, 6% chance of winning it all.
    5. I think Randy Wolf is likely to pleasantly surprise.
    6. I think Scott Hairston is likely to unpleasantly disappoint.
    7. I wish the Padres had signed Andruw Jones to play center. It would have had the added benefit of forcing the Dodgers to keep playing Juan Pierre in center. I think it would have made us the easy division favorites, adding 10% to our chances to make the playoffs.
    8. Headley, LeBlanc, Antonelli, and some relievers. Only Headley stays up for more than a couple of weeks.
    9. Headley comes up in early May and sticks as the starting leftfielder. He doesn’t get any ROY votes despite playing pretty well.
    10. Jody Gerut, when Edmonds comes off the DL.
    11. Hmm, I’m sure they’ll make some minor ones for depth, but I don’t think they’ll make a major blockbuster.
    12. Edmonds, Wolf, Barrett and/or Bard (it’s tough catching), Young.
    13. Padres, Cubs, Mets, Dodgers as wild card; Angels, Indians, Yankees, Red Sox as wild card, Padres over the Indians in the World Series.

  11. How many wins for the Padres in 2008?
    87

    Is this 2008 team better or worse than the 2007 team? Why?
    Slightly worse. Infield will be better, but it is offset by the outfield being worse.

    Where will they finish in the NL West?
    Third place.

    What are their chances of making the playoffs? Winning a playoff series? Winning it all?
    They have about a 20% chance of making the playoffs. 10% chance of winning a series, and 1% chance of winning it all.

    What player(s) do you think is most likely to exceed expectations?
    PMac.

    What player(s) do you think is most likely to disappoint?
    Edmonds.

    Is there a move (or 2 or 3) which you wish the Padres had made this offseason? Explain what you think will actually happen in 2008 compared to what you would have projected to happen if they had made that move (or 2 or 3).
    With the number of free agent centerfielders out there, I can’t believe we had to make a trade for Edmonds. If we would have signed Andruw Jones, we pick up 4 wins. I think we’ll make a move early and get a young centerfielder that will offset the Edmonds’ experiment. Net effect of this change? None this year, but will make a difference next year.

    When will Chase Headley get called up? Will he stick? Will he get ROY votes? What are his chances for NL ROY?
    He’ll be up first of June and he’ll become a platoon with PMac. He won’t get ROY consideration, since he’ll be platooning.

    Who will be the first Padre to be released? When?
    Gerut. When Edmonds comes off the DL.

    What kind of in-season trades do you think the Padres will make? Any in April?
    They’ll trade for a center fielder in early May.

    Any players you don’t expect to be healthy for a full season (besides Edmonds)?
    Kouz. Bad back will sideline him for 1 trip to the DL.

    Do you have any clear picks for division winners? Pennant winners? World Champion?
    Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks. Wild cards are Yankees and Phillies. Detroit beats Mets in the World Series.

  12. Agree with the other people, this is a great idea:

    How many wins for the Padres in 2008?

    90 – 72

    Is this 2008 team better or worse than the 2007 team? Why?

    Better. Stability in LF in addition to one of the best IFs in the NL and a solid 4th starter leads us to a third division title in 4 years.

    Where will they finish in the NL West?

    Second (statistical tie with the D-Backs, lose season series).

    What are their chances of making the playoffs? Winning a playoff series? Winning it all?

    45% chance of playoffs. 40% chance of winning a playoff series. 15% chance of winning it all.

    What player(s) do you think is most likely to exceed expectations?

    Iguchi and Barrett

    What player(s) do you think is most likely to disappoint?

    Maddux & Macanulty

    Is there a move (or 2 or 3) which you wish the Padres had made this offseason? Explain what you think will actually happen in 2008 compared to what you would have projected to happen if they had made that move (or 2 or 3).

    Livan Hernandez as a fifth starter. Dude’s a horse and a virual lock for 200 league-average innings. Young CF would have been nice (Willits!). Two of them combine for four more wins and a lock on a playoff spot.

    What minor leaguers do you expect to make a contribution to the 2008 Padres?

    Wade LeBlanc and Chase Headley.

    When will Chase Headley get called up? Will he stick? Will he get ROY votes? What are his chances for NL ROY?

    April 15th when the Padres realize that Macanulty is a 4A player.

    Who will be the first Padre to be released? When?

    Macanulty when Headley is brought up.

    What kind of in-season trades do you think the Padres will make? Any in April?

    Edmonds comes off the DL and is injured again in May. Padres pull the trigger for Willits, sending Macanulty, Meredith, and Morton.

    Any players you don’t expect to be healthy for a full season (besides Edmonds)?

    Bard will get injured again at some point. He’ll be out for about 2 weeks, at which point Barrett assumes the primary starting job.

    Do you have any clear picks for division winners? Pennant winners? World Champion?

    Yankees, Tigers, Mariners, Indians.
    Braves, Cubs, D-Backs, Padres.

    Tigers
    Padres

    Tigers

  13. 12: You predict us to be second but win the division?

  14. 13: I think we’ll win the Wild Card. I’m sorry to say we’d win the division, got a little caught up there :-p

  15. How many wins for the Padres in 2008?

    88 – 74

    Is this 2008 team better or worse than the 2007 team? Why?

    Worse. They upgraded slightly at 2B, but not enough to make up for the downgraded OF.

    Where will they finish in the NL West?

    Second.

    What are their chances of making the playoffs? Winning a playoff series? Winning it all?

    33% chance of playoffs. 20% chance of winning a playoff series. 2% chance of winning it all.

    What player(s) do you think is most likely to exceed expectations?

    Hairston

    What player(s) do you think is most likely to disappoint?

    Greene (after last season), Wolf

    Is there a move (or 2 or 3) which you wish the Padres had made this offseason? Explain what you think will actually happen in 2008 compared to what you would have projected to happen if they had made that move (or 2 or 3).

    More pitching depth (Loshe, Bush, Livan). Knowing now how much Milton and Cam signed for, I wish they would had kept them around. Trying to get Adam Jones somehow would have been great.

    What minor leaguers do you expect to make a contribution to the 2008 Padres?

    Headley, LeBlanc.

    When will Chase Headley get called up? Will he stick? Will he get ROY votes? What are his chances for NL ROY?

    Mid May. He will stick. I dont think h will play well enough to get ROY votes. But Steven Henson thinks he will (he thinks pretty highly of teh padres all around) http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ys-mlbpredicts032508&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

    Who will be the first Padre to be released? When?

    I sure hope its Estes. In early May.

    What kind of in-season trades do you think the Padres will make? Any in April?

    The usual small upgrades. if Edmonds go down they will look somewhere, my guess is a Kenny Lofton type.

    Any players you don’t expect to be healthy for a full season (besides Edmonds)?

    Barrett will hurt himself punching someone haha. Giles, Wolf and Kouz seem somewhat obvious choices.

    Do you have any clear picks for division winners? Pennant winners? World Champion?

    Yankees, Indians, Mariners.
    WC: BoSox
    Phillies, Cubs, D-Backs.
    WC: Padres

    Yankees and Cubs in the WS. Cubs win for the first time in 100 years.

  16. 1: 89-73

    2: Slightly better than last year, but the division also improved and the Pads have a tough interleague schedule

    3: First in the division by a game over AZ and 2 over LA.

    4: 55% make the playoffs, 35% to beat Cubs in first round, 13% to beat Mets in NLCS, 4% to win World Series.

    5: I think Randy Wolf will exceed most expectations, giving 28 starts with a 4.28 ERA

    6: Tad Iguchi will be most likely to disapoint. He wont be as bad as SD 2B last year, but he’ll be at .269/.337/.408

    7: I would have liked to see the Padres pick up Reed Johnson who when healthy to years ago posted a .390 OBP and plays all three OF well. Hopefully they can pick up Matt Murton still to be the replacement for Giles next year. Also, not sure if this guy is available, but CF Ben Francisco from Cleveland is starting the season in AAA again blocked by Grady Sizemore, but hits for avg. with good pop in his bat, speed, and doesn’t strike out too much.

    8: Headley. P-Mac of the bench. Leblanc will get some innings (30 or so) at the end of the year, possibly out of the bullpen when the minor league season ends or if a starter is out. Brian Myrow will get innings of the bench for another team.

    9: Headley will get called up in early June so this will only count as his first year of service time… He will stick but will not get much ROY hype.

    10: Gerut will be cut/traded in June when Headley comes up. Ledezma could get cut earlier, say May 5 when pieces of the bullpen (Cameron, Hampson, Guevara) get healthy.

    11: I can see them making minor league moves, but nothing major unless a starting pitcher or outfielder goes down early.

    12: I can see Giles needing more time off but I don’t think he’ll go on the DL again. Wolf might miss 2-3 starts but nothing major. I can also see Heath Bell possibly landing on the DL from overuse although that would be a huge blow.

    13. Mets (best rec in NL), Cubs, and Padres win division, DBacks win playoff over Braves for WC. Braves are aided because they have 19 games apiece against Marlins and Nationals.

    Yankees, Tigers (best rec in AL), Mariners win division, Red Sox win WC. Red Sox beat Mets in World Series, even though Pedro pitches well against former team.

  17. How many wins for the Padres in 2008?
    87
    Is this 2008 team better or worse than the 2007 team? Why?
    Worse because they took too many chances on historically unreliable players. The 2007 team had more quality players closer to the prime of their careers.
    Where will they finish in the NL West?
    Second behind Arizona. Colorado is overrated and the Dodgers will lose more games than they should for what seems like the 54th year in a row.
    What are their chances of making the playoffs? Winning a playoff series? Winning it all?
    I’d say a 50% chance of making the playoffs, 33% chance of winning a series, and 5% of winning the championship.
    What player(s) do you think is most likely to exceed expectations?
    Chase Headley. He’ll be in the middle of the lineup by June.
    What player(s) do you think is most likely to disappoint?
    Randy Wolf and Jim Edmonds
    Is there a move (or 2 or 3) which you wish the Padres had made this offseason? Explain what you think will actually happen in 2008 compared to what you would have projected to happen if they had made that move (or 2 or 3).
    Keeping Cameron and/or Bradley would’ve made this team a contender for the pennant, instead of a hopeful. If either or both of those two were here, they’d have one of the league’s best outfields both offensively and defensively, and they’d give the Mets a run for their money as the league’s top team.
    What minor leaguers do you expect to make a contribution to the 2008 Padres?
    Chase Headley, Matt Antonelli
    When will Chase Headley get called up? Will he stick? Will he get ROY votes? What are his chances for NL ROY?
    Chase will be a Padre by the first of May and will be the shot in the arm the Padres need. Not only will he get ROY votes, but he’ll finish second to Cameron Maybin.
    Who will be the first Padre to be released? When?
    Glendon Rusch
    What kind of in-season trades do you think the Padres will make? Any in April?
    There will be a new centerfielder in July.
    Any players you don’t expect to be healthy for a full season (besides Edmonds)?
    Prior makes five starts tops.
    Do you have any clear picks for division winners? Pennant winners? World Champion?
    Arizona, Milwaukee, New York, New York, Detroit, and the Angels win divisions. San Diego and Cleveland in as wild cards. And the Mets take out the favored Detroit Tigers for the World Championship.

  18. 1 – 87
    2 – I want to say better but the OF is a big concern. Also, the back of the rotation could be a disaster. If everything falls right this year’s team is better, but otherwise no.
    3 – 2nd place
    4 – I’d say 30/15/3
    5 – I say Prior, meaning he comes back and is productive
    6 – Giles or Wolf
    7 – Andruw Jones as CF (1 year deal) was the way to go
    8 – Headley/LeBlanc and BASS
    9 – I think Headley will get the call at some point but I also think LF won’t be our big issue and he doesn’t stay all year.
    10 – Enrique Gonzalez, by mid May
    11 – Probably look for another CF at some point. I say nothing in April unless Edmonds is really shot and Hairston can’t handle CF.
    12 – Young comes to mind too, he doesn’t seem like a good bet to put up 200 innings
    13 – Boston/Detroit/Angels and Mets/Cubs/? (NL West is too tough to call) I say Detroit vs. the Mets and Detroit takes it.

  19. How many wins for the Padres in 2008?
    They’ll go 85-77.
    Is this 2008 team better or worse than the 2007 team? Why?
    About the same, but has the potential to be a bit better…funny, I don’t think it will translate in overall record.
    Where will they finish in the NL West?
    Second place.
    What are their chances of making the playoffs? Winning a playoff series? Winning it all?
    No much really…So many things would have to fall right…I give them a 15% chance of making the playoff’s and a 2% of winning the WS.
    What player(s) do you think is most likely to exceed expectations?
    Tadahito Iguchi
    What player(s) do you think is most likely to disappoint?
    Trevor Hoffman
    Is there a move (or 2 or 3) which you wish the Padres had made this offseason? Explain what you think will actually happen in 2008 compared to what you would have projected to happen if they had made that move (or 2 or 3).
    Resign Mike Cameron…I think that is worth at least 2 wins, mainly b/c of the stability it brings to the OF…Would it have taken them into the playoffs? Probably not, but sure would have made it a lot closer.
    What minor leaguers do you expect to make a contribution to the 2008 Padres?
    Chase Headley
    When will Chase Headley get called up? Will he stick? Will he get ROY votes? What are his chances for NL ROY?
    Yes, he will get a call up, but I think he will be up and down. Still not convinced that the pads won’t make another trade for a LF/CF…that would make his PT too low to keep him in the majors. Look for him full time in 09.
    Who will be the first Padre to be released? When?
    Either Glendon Rusch or Jody Gerut…May 15
    What kind of in-season trades do you think the Padres will make? Any in April?
    I expect an OF by the end of May
    Any players you don’t expect to be healthy for a full season (besides Edmonds)?
    Khalil Greene
    Do you have any clear picks for division winners? Pennant winners? World Champion?
    AL East – Boston
    AL Central – Cleveland
    AL West – Seattle
    AL Wildcard – Detroit

    NL East – Philadelphia
    NL Central – Chicago
    NL West – Arizona
    NL Wildcard – New York Mets

    Cleveland beats Chicago in the WS

  20. 1. 83-79
    2. I little worse because we still have no offense, nobody to hit 300, nobody to crack 25 HRs.
    3. second or third depending on the Dodger clubhouse
    4. Possible wildcard
    5. Kouz, Kahlil, Barrett offensively
    6. Edmonds, bullpen
    7. A good avg hitter would be nice, but agree, better back end of the rotation.
    8. ???
    9. ????
    10. ?????
    11. ??????
    12. Giles, broken down and old, a starting pitcher because there is no offense.
    13. Hope it not the RS again, hope its like KC and Az, that ought to make ESPN/Fox happy.

  21. 1. 84 and fourth place. Craziness a la last season but this time only to fall from second to fourth (I don’t know how).
    2. A little worse for the missing back-end rotation and more unearned runs.
    3. fourth but I’m hoping for second and wildcard.
    4. No playoff but possible wildcard and if so, go past first round.
    5. OG, P-Mac offensively, Germano pitching wise.
    6. I expect Headley to contribute but probably not as great as I want him to once he’s called up, and bullpen is going to regress.
    7. Trade for Nick Markakis from the O’s. Yeah, I know that’s crazy, right?
    8. Headley, Zarate, Guevara.
    9. After ASB. No ROY.
    10. Don’t know. Don’t see any Silent L-like player and he didn’t get cut. Good thing, too.
    11. None in April. A #3 starter after ASB depending on where the Padres are at that time. CY could be hurt too.
    12. OG because he would want to play everyday. Wolf because he’s always hurt comes second half of season. Trevor, perhaps, because he may try to over-pitch.
    13. Playoff are crapshot so I’ll go with the Snakes losing to the Indians in WS.

  22. How many wins for the Padres in 2008?
    78. This is not a particularly good team.
    Is this 2008 team better or worse than the 2007 team? Why?
    Worse. Age is creeping up, without many moves to combat it.
    Where will they finish in the NL West?
    Fourth. Thanks to the Giants.
    What are their chances of making the playoffs? Winning a playoff series? Winning it all?
    They’re not making it to the postseason. I’d say their chances are less than 20%. If they somehow make it, I think their odds of winning a series are actually better, at around 45%. No way in hell they win the World Series.
    What player(s) do you think is most likely to exceed expectations?
    Jim Edmonds.
    What player(s) do you think is most likely to disappoint?
    Jim Edmonds.
    Is there a move (or 2 or 3) which you wish the Padres had made this offseason? Explain what you think will actually happen in 2008 compared to what you would have projected to happen if they had made that move (or 2 or 3).
    I would have liked to see them sign Kyle Lohse, and address the geriatric outfield. I think these moves would heve had them in wildcard contention.
    What minor leaguers do you expect to make a contribution to the 2008 Padres?
    Chase Headley.
    When will Chase Headley get called up? Will he stick? Will he get ROY votes? What are his chances for NL ROY?
    He’ll be up at the end of April, thus putting arbitration off by a year. I think it’s unlikely that Petco will allow a Padre rookie playing a corner position to put up sufficient numbers to win the NLROY.
    Who will be the first Padre to be released? When?
    Paul MacAnulty. Soon, I hope. (Sorry, LynchMob…)
    What kind of in-season trades do you think the Padres will make? Any in April?
    I don’t see a lot of demand for most of what the Padres have to offer. I hope that a market arises later in the season for Tony Clark, whose presence on the roster doesn’t make any sense to me.
    Any players you don’t expect to be healthy for a full season?
    Chris Young. Trevor Hoffman. Brian Giles. Randy Wolf. Tad Iguchi. Jody gerut. Scott Hairston. Jake Peavy. Ugh. My head hurts.
    Do you have any clear picks for division winners? Pennant winners? World Champion?
    Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Phillies, Brewers, Diamondbacks. Wildcards are Yankees and Mets. The Mets ride Johan and Pedro to the World Championship beating the Yankees in six games despite four homers and nine RBI from A-Rod, who will be blamed by fans and the media for the Yankees’ defeat. Jim Edmonds breaks his wrist pushing the volume button of his remote while watching game four. The injury causes him to miss the ’09 season.

  23. The amazing Carnac says…

    1. 88-74.

    2. The team is overall comparable to last year. Weaker in the OF, better in the IF, rotation and bullpen. Sounds like it should be better when put like that, so I’ll say a little stronger overall.

    3. Tied for second with LA, 2 games out of both the division and the WC.

    4. 40% for the playoffs, 25% to win a series, and 1% to beat Boston in the series.

    5. Jody Gerut will be the positive surprise, taking over most of the time in LF.

    6. Scott Hairston will be the disappointment, opening the door for Gerut.

    7. Centerfield would have been a nice pick-up, but we’ll make do.

    8. Will Startup will start up in Portland, and be a part of the bullpen before too much longer.

    9. Chase Headley will be up for a little while in July, but the Padres will likely leave him in Portland for most of the season to become a stronger defensive outfielder. He’ll get a whole lot of ROY press in 2009.

    10. Released? No selection (BAD KARMA)

    11. If we are looking at the playoffs in early August, and Mark Prior isn’t going to get it done, a strong fourth starter for the playoffs.

    12. Injuries? see #10

    13. Boston, Detroit, California (if they can keep changing their name, so can I) with Seattle in the W/C. New York, Milwaukee, Arizona with Philadelphia in the W/C. Boston beat the Mets in 5.

    Or not. Enjoy the season!!!

  24. 77 wins ? 8o wins ? The Padres pitching makes them *at the very least* a .500 with Ducksnorters playing the other 8 positions. Thus, I predict another 89 win season. For example just look at the pitching match ups against a team like Houston –they should sweep this series and at the very least take 3 of 4. This will be a regular occurence throughout the year. Their pitching is simply too damn good to win 77 games.

    Peavy and Young are ABSOULUTE monsters and Maddux and Wolf would be #2 starters on many teams.