From esteemed reader LynchMob comes this excellent idea for a post on the eve of Opening Day: “provide us with a list of questions which you want us, the commenters, to go ‘on the record’ with”; he then poses several questions, which you will find below.
This might be fun to peek back at throughout the season. I’ll lead off with my responses; feel free to follow…
- How many wins for the Padres in 2008?
They’ll go 86-76. - Is this 2008 team better or worse than the 2007 team? Why?
About the same. Randy Wolf and Tadahito Iguchi should represent upgrades over David Wells and Marcus Giles, while Jim Edmonds won’t produce like Mike Cameron. - Where will they finish in the NL West?
Second place. - What are their chances of making the playoffs? Winning a playoff series? Winning it all?
They have about a 35-40% chance of making the playoffs. After that, who knows? I’ll say 15-20% chance of winning a series, and 3% chance of winning it all. - What player(s) do you think is most likely to exceed expectations?
Scott Hairston. - What player(s) do you think is most likely to disappoint?
Edmonds. - Is there a move (or 2 or 3) which you wish the Padres had made this offseason? Explain what you think will actually happen in 2008 compared to what you would have projected to happen if they had made that move (or 2 or 3).
More help for the back of the rotation; Livan Hernandez or Kyle Lohse would have been nice. A better contingency plan for center field. Not sure those would be enough for the Padres to win the division, but they might mean the difference between winning the wild card or not. - What minor leaguers do you expect to make a contribution to the 2008 Padres?
Chase Headley, possibly Wade LeBlanc and/or some relievers (Will Startup? Mauro Zarate?) - When will Chase Headley get called up? Will he stick? Will he get ROY votes? What are his chances for NL ROY?
He’ll be up mid-May and it will be for good. Even if he plays well, he won’t get ROY consideration because most voters either don’t know or don’t care about park effects. - Who will be the first Padre to be released? When?
Wil Ledezma. April 28. - What kind of in-season trades do you think the Padres will make? Any in April?
They might acquire more pitching depth if possible. If Edmonds’ injuries linger, depending on how well Hairston performs in center, they might make a play there as well. - Any players you don’t expect to be healthy for a full season (besides Edmonds)?
Brian Giles and Wolf are obvious choices. I also have concerns about Heath Bell because of last year’s workload. I hope I’m wrong; the Padres need him. - Do you have any clear picks for division winners? Pennant winners? World Champion?
Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks. Wild cards are Indians and Phillies. Arizona beats Detroit in the World Series.
Those are mine. What are yours?
Great Idea GY and LM!
How many wins for the Padres in 2008?
80-82 I don’t mean to be pessimistic (I really don’t) but I think there will be a few key injuries early on and by the ASB the padres will pull up a lot of the prospects we have been waiting to see and starting to prepare for future NL west dominance!
Is this 2008 team better or worse than the 2007 team? Why?
Better from a talent perspective but I just think this team is lot more fragile than last years.
Where will they finish in the NL West?
Fourth – D-backs 88-74, Rockies 84-78, Dodgers 83-79, Padres 80-82, Giants 62-100.
What are their chances of making the playoffs? Winning a playoff series? Winning it all?
I think they have about a 25% chance of making the playoffs a 20% chance of winning a series, and 1% chance of winning it all. To me it basically boils down to how healthy their starts can stay if they have Peavy, Young and one of Maddux/Wolf/Prior at 100% going into the playoffs I think they have a great shot at making it out of the first round but to me that is a big if.
What player(s) do you think is most likely to exceed expectations?
P-Mac! And Germano
What player(s) do you think is most likely to disappoint?
Edmonds, Giles and Maddux.
Is there a move (or 2 or 3) which you wish the Padres had made this offseason? Explain what you think will actually happen in 2008 compared to what you would have projected to happen if they had made that move (or 2 or 3).
I would have liked to see them trade Barrett for Nady (not sure which side objected to this though). I would have also liked to see them trade for a young CF like Willits or DeJesus. I guess I have no faith in Giles and Edmonds and if they both go down the Padres will have an OF of players who have never played a full season in the bigs.
What minor leaguers do you expect to make a contribution to the 2008 Padres?
Chase Headley, Matt Antonelli, Chad Huffman, Colt Morton, Wade LeBlanc, Josh Geer, Will Startup, Edgar Gonzalez, like I said I think they are going to pull up a lot of their future stars if they have a rash of injuries and are 10 games out by the ASB.
When will Chase Headley get called up? Will he stick? Will he get ROY votes? What are his chances for NL ROY?
I think he will be up by the ASB, I think he will stick and will be the Padres starting LF in 09, because he will only be up for half the season I do not see him getting any ROY votes.
Who will be the first Padre to be released? When?
Jody Guret whenever Edmunds comes off the DL.
What kind of in-season trades do you think the Padres will make? Any in April?
They may trade Guret or P-Mac in April when Edmonds comes back but will be a minor move, also if Barrett gets off to a good start I think they may trade him as well. I think they’ll trade Clark and possibly Germano at the trade deadline.
Any players you don’t expect to be healthy for a full season (besides Edmonds)?
Brian Giles, Randy Wolf, Hoffy, and Greene.
Do you have any clear picks for division winners? Pennant winners? World Champion?
ALE Red Sox, ALC Tigers, ALW Angles, ALWC Yankees, NLE Braves, NLC Brewers, NLW D-Backs NLWC Mets. The Red Sox beat the Braves in 5 games in the WS.
1. They’ll go 83-79.
2. Worse. While the infield and pitching are solid, I think our outfield defense (even with Edmonds) will be lacking and lead to more runs given up, even as the pitchers turn in performances equal to our better than last season.
3. Third place behind Arizona and LA.
4. They have about a 30% chance of making the playoffs, 20% chance of winning a series, and 5% chance of winning it all.
5. Brian Giles.
6. Jim Edmonds.
7. Agree with Geoff. A better plan for center field. I didn’t like the haste with which they brought Edmonds in when there were plenty of options available. I would have liked to have seen Coco Crisp in a Padre uniform. His defense alone would have legitimized his presence.
8. Chase Headley, Josh Geer, & Caesar Carillo late in the year in a bullpen role.
9. Chase will be back in June to play third to cover a Kouz trip to the DL. He will then stick around to play a little left and a little 3B. Even if he plays well, he won’t get ROY consideration because he won’t play enough and will be platooned in left with Hairston.
10. Enrique Gonzalez. May 13.
11. They will trade for a CF in early June after Edmonds pulls another muscle in his leg and Hairston demonstrates that he can’t cover CF adequately in PETCO while flanked by Giles/P-Mac/Huber/Headley.
12. Kouz, Greene, Hairston, Chris Young.
13. Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Brewers, Diamondbacks. Wild cards are Yankees and Dodgers. Boston beats Diamondbacks in the World Series.
1. 91 wins
2. Better: Deeper pitching making the late season collapse less likely.
3. 1st
4. 75% to make the playoffs, 50% to win a series, 5% to win it all
5. Kouzmanoff: Second half was no fluke.
6. Edmonds: “Old and in way that’s what I heard him say”
7. Fukudome: Replace Edmonds with Fukudome and they run away and hide.
8. Headley will be a force, sooner rather than later.
9. Chase will come up early and stick. No rookie of the year
10. Gerut: Early April
11. They will make a move for a AA or AAA center field prospect.
12. Wolf: Wolf will go down when Prior comes up.
You are all avoiding the big question.
Which color will win the most Scoreboard Surprise boat races?
#4: LOL. Hey, anyone at Friday night’s game notice how much tougher the hat shuffle is now?
Cool …
1. I’ll go 85-77, but that may change by tonight/tomorrow when I make my “official” projections … er, guesses …
2. Slightly worse.
3. Second behind Arizona.
4. 35% playoffs, 20% playoff series, 5% winning it all.
5. Kevin Kouzmanoff.
6. Chris Young.
7. Another starter for the back of the rotation. Maybe a 2 win improvement.
8. Headley
9. I’ll say when he comes up he sticks, but he won’t have much of a chance for ROY because of the late start and park.
10. Gerut in late April maybe …
11. Pitching depth, outfield
12. Young, Edmonds, Giles, Wolf
13. I like the Red Sox in the AL and the Mets in the NL.
Hey all, wanted to chime in on some of these things.
I think the padres will be close to Matt Vs “reagan era fastball” (mid 80s) in wins this year. I dont think the roster as currently constituted is really capable of 85 wins, but my feel is that the roster will undergo a lot of change early in the year. I agree with Geoff that if Bell gets hurt it could drop our win total into the 70s. Im not so sure on the objective statistics but subjectively it felt we leaned on him a hell of a lot last year, especially down the stretch. Everyone else in our bullpen seems like a situational-system guy, where if you take them out of their niche they seem a lot less effective. This is probably true throughout baseball, but good teams always seem to have that guy that can come in and take over, regardless of situation. What Bell did against Colorado last year has been way overlooked. He was amazing, and he was THAT guy. I hope he stays healthy.
I like P-MAC but I dont think the Padres Brass does. It will be real interesting to see what happens when Edmonds comes off the DL. I think they could stick with Gerut, and use defensive versatility as their reason. I do think the suprise of the year could be Huber, as he seems to be more of the type of hitter the Brass wants. I call it Petco Power. Right handed, line drive, pull oriented power. They have to be athletes too to work defensively in Petco. Hariston has that type of power, which is why I think he will have a good year, better than expected. some will say Jack Cust had that power, but then again he couldnt play any defense.
I think the reasons the padres get a lot of slack from their fans is that they never make the big splashy move in trades or free agency. Secretly, we all miss that one year of Greg Vaughn (dude was probably so juiced) and want that intimidating crusher in the lineup. Greg Vaughn is probably a bad example, but longtime fans know what im talking about. When I was 17 or 18 I went to a game with my dad against the Cardinals. I think it might have been the playoffs, but we were losing late and someone got on and then Caminiti came to the plate…and everyone in the place just knew that Cammy (poor cammy, so juiced) was going to tie that game with a homerun. It was palpable. And he did, even though we lost the game. I like our team, but with the possible exception of Adrian (on the road Adrain or “OTRA” for you spanish speakers out there) we just dont have that type of player.
Anyway, I always want the Brass to make those kinds of big moves, just to get a Hero or two. but those kinds of mashers are usually overpaid and rarely come available, which is why the team is smart in not allowing the hero worshipping whims of the fanbase to dictate its decisions on how to win baseball games. But, as ironic as it seems, until they pony up and make the “bad” decision to overpay a superstar (and not a 4 years past his prime Piazza either) most of the casual fans will remain indifferent to some really good purist baseball.
Quite a rant but what Im trying to say is that A) people will get hurt in the outfield this year B). the padres will make interesting and unexpected trades (maybe PMAC) for prospects. C) they will turn those prospects into non superstar but highly efficient random baseball dudes with unrecognizable names from boring franchises like the brewers or rangers or Royals. D) aforementioned random dudes will play good baseball for Petco and outperform the majority of overpaid “regulars” and the Pads will compete. Not Dominate, but compete. Trust in the Man Genius KT and his wary overseers, and lets play some ball. Oh and thanks Geoff for Ducksnorts.
1. 88-74
2. slightly better… but only because Marcus Giles, April Kouz and LF before Milton Bradley were so very bad.
3. 1st narrowly over AZ
4. 60% to make playoffs, 50% to win first series and 5% to win it all
5. Brian Giles… yeah, I think Headley and others are going to have breakout seasons, but since everyone expects them to have breakout seasons it will be harder for them to exceed expectations. I think Giles will stay healthy and regain 2003-2005 form… and I don’t think many expect him to.
6. Scott Hairston… again this is due to expectations… I think Hairston will do OK and stay on the roster all year, but compared to his .287 at the end of last season, .240 will be a disappointment, also I don’t think he’ll do very well in CF when Edmonds does his 2nd and 3rd trips to the DL.
7. I would have liked to see Torii Hunter instead of Edmonds in CF, but money is money… also… would it kill us to trade for some speed? I guess I just miss Eric Owens…
8. Yeah, Headley’s gonna be good.
9. Headley will come up in May after proving he can play OF. He’ll play well enough to keep the starting LF job, but won’t get ROY consideration, because he just won’t quite be good enough yet… I expect him to play well, but not well enough to turn heads.
10. Something’s got to give when Edmonds comes back… probably Gerut because P-mac will be strong in the first few games and I think they’re pretty sweet on Huber or they wouldn’t have traded for him.
11. By Edmonds’s second stint on the DL they’ll be shopping some pitching depth for a speedy CF. Depending on how Prior, Estes, Wolf, Hensley and Stauffer recover and on how LeBlanc, Germano and Rusch do, we could find ourselves with a couple of extra arms.
12. Wolf… and I’d like to see Hoffy go a whole season, but…
13. Mets, Cubs, Padres, wild card D-Backs… Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, wild card Yankees. Mets beat us in the NLCS and go on to beat the Tigers in the World Series.
1 84-78
2 About the same.
3 2nd
4 40%, 20%, 5%
5 Brian Giles
6 Jim Edmonds
7 Not really.
8 Chase Headley, Matt Antonelli
9 Early May, Yes, Yes, Nil
10 Wil Ledezma, Early May
11 Trade a Reliever for Prospect(s)
12 Randy Wolf
13 Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks. WC Indians and Brewers. Sox over Mets in WS.
1. 91-71!
2. Better. Enough of an upgrade at second and third and in the rotation to weather a downgrade in the outfield.
3. First! Division title!
4. 40% chance of the playoffs, 21% chance of winning a series, 6% chance of winning it all.
5. I think Randy Wolf is likely to pleasantly surprise.
6. I think Scott Hairston is likely to unpleasantly disappoint.
7. I wish the Padres had signed Andruw Jones to play center. It would have had the added benefit of forcing the Dodgers to keep playing Juan Pierre in center. I think it would have made us the easy division favorites, adding 10% to our chances to make the playoffs.
8. Headley, LeBlanc, Antonelli, and some relievers. Only Headley stays up for more than a couple of weeks.
9. Headley comes up in early May and sticks as the starting leftfielder. He doesn’t get any ROY votes despite playing pretty well.
10. Jody Gerut, when Edmonds comes off the DL.
11. Hmm, I’m sure they’ll make some minor ones for depth, but I don’t think they’ll make a major blockbuster.
12. Edmonds, Wolf, Barrett and/or Bard (it’s tough catching), Young.
13. Padres, Cubs, Mets, Dodgers as wild card; Angels, Indians, Yankees, Red Sox as wild card, Padres over the Indians in the World Series.
How many wins for the Padres in 2008?
87
Is this 2008 team better or worse than the 2007 team? Why?
Slightly worse. Infield will be better, but it is offset by the outfield being worse.
Where will they finish in the NL West?
Third place.
What are their chances of making the playoffs? Winning a playoff series? Winning it all?
They have about a 20% chance of making the playoffs. 10% chance of winning a series, and 1% chance of winning it all.
What player(s) do you think is most likely to exceed expectations?
PMac.
What player(s) do you think is most likely to disappoint?
Edmonds.
Is there a move (or 2 or 3) which you wish the Padres had made this offseason? Explain what you think will actually happen in 2008 compared to what you would have projected to happen if they had made that move (or 2 or 3).
With the number of free agent centerfielders out there, I can’t believe we had to make a trade for Edmonds. If we would have signed Andruw Jones, we pick up 4 wins. I think we’ll make a move early and get a young centerfielder that will offset the Edmonds’ experiment. Net effect of this change? None this year, but will make a difference next year.
When will Chase Headley get called up? Will he stick? Will he get ROY votes? What are his chances for NL ROY?
He’ll be up first of June and he’ll become a platoon with PMac. He won’t get ROY consideration, since he’ll be platooning.
Who will be the first Padre to be released? When?
Gerut. When Edmonds comes off the DL.
What kind of in-season trades do you think the Padres will make? Any in April?
They’ll trade for a center fielder in early May.
Any players you don’t expect to be healthy for a full season (besides Edmonds)?
Kouz. Bad back will sideline him for 1 trip to the DL.
Do you have any clear picks for division winners? Pennant winners? World Champion?
Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks. Wild cards are Yankees and Phillies. Detroit beats Mets in the World Series.