Series Preview: Lisa Gray Talks Astros
Mon, Mar 31, 2008
by Geoff Young
I’m making a concerted effort to do more interviews this year and get more voices talking here at Ducksnorts. With that in mind, it’s my great pleasure to bring you Lisa Gray, of the excellent Astros Dugout, who will tell us a little more about the Padres’ first opponent of 2008.
Ducksnorts: The Astros and Padres are similar in many respects. Both teams entered the league during the ’60s and still are largely ignored by the national media. With the retirement of Jeff Bagwell and now Craig Biggio, how does the franchise go about re-establishing itself in an environment where so much emphasis is placed on individual players, particularly those in large media markets?
Gray: That is a very good question. Unfortunately, there is no way to get rid of the media infatuation and obsession with the Red Sox/Yankees/Mets/Cubs. Even the acquisition of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte in 2004 did very little to interest the East Coast obsessed media and consequently, the vast majority of the country, including the vast majority of mainstream media baseball analysts, missed one of the best NLCS ever played.
There really is no way to fight the media’s prejudices, so it is in the best interest of the franchise to, as best it can, ignore that prejudice and concentrate on its own home base.
At this point, I would guess that the team may try to market Hunter Pence and/or Michael Bourn as its new stars; Roy Oswalt is simply too quiet and seemingly bland, and Lance Berkman’s personality is not compatible with what the public wants to see in a “star.”
Ducksnorts: Former Padres staffer Ed Wade is the new GM in Houston. What has he brought to the ballclub thus far, and do you like what you see?
Gray: Ed Wade has made most Astros fans deliriously happy by trading away all the players they hated and wanted off the team, and by obtaining steroid-user Miguel Tejada, long coveted by both the fans and owner. Wade has replaced the entire bullpen, again, elating most of the fans, as they wanted this. The only thing he has not done that could have pleased the fans more would have been to re-acquire fan favorite Willy Taveras. The fans will undoubtedly forgive him for that if Michael Bourn steals plenty of bases.
As for me, I understand that Wade was (most likely) instructed to get rid of certain players and to trade for Tejada, and having to do so with an almost barren farm was a challenge: he did the best he could with what little he had. I don’t know if it is even reasonable to criticize his trades and signings because I have no idea how much freedom he actually has: when he was hired, it was made more than plain that he had been hired because he was the only candidate who had agreed to “work with” Tal Smith.
I do think that the signing of second baseman [Kazuo] Matsui, who has never exceeded 114 games played in a single season, to a 3 year contract was not sensible, nor is batting him second simply because he runs fast. Wade has also signed a significant number of mediocre middle relievers, as is his habit, and we’ll have to see how that works out. I will reserve judgement until I see how he does with this year’s draft, unless the owner again makes it plain that no player will be signed again for higher than slot, restricting the quality of draftees.
Ducksnorts: What did you think of the Miguel Tejada trade? What are your expectations for Tejada in 2008 and beyond?
Gray: I wasn’t particularly happy with the Tejada trade. I know the local media and fans expect him to outhomer Lance Berkman, but he is a poor defender whose power has been steadily decreasing since steroid testing began, and 13 million a year is a lot to pay for a fairly powerless .300 BA. I would have been a lot happier had ownership installed Tejada at third, retained Adam Everett at short and not signed Ty Wigginton to play third.
Ducksnorts: Why don’t more people realize how good Lance Berkman is?
Gray: People don’t know who Lance Berkman is because he doesn’t act or talk like the stereotyped leader (translation — unpleasant jerk who pushes young guys around and “calls out” other players — just what the media loves) but instead is more of a clubhouse clown who tries to keep the guys loose. Too many people equate an easygoing personality with sloth, and contrary to public opinion, Berkman is a very hard worker. He also doesn’t play for one of the media’s glamour teams, and he never finished first in the three statistical offensive categories that the media deems important, so they don’t bother to write about him.
Ducksnorts: How good can outfielder/blogger Hunter Pence be?
Gray: Pence, like any other sophomore, will have to make adjustments to the pitchers, who have been busy studying video on him. He seems to have been able to make adjustments when necessary last year and has always been a good hitter. His numbers may decrease somewhat, but they should be solid. Unfortunately, he is (until Matsui returns) slated to bat sixth instead of second, behind GIDP kings Lee and Tejada, so his RBI opportunities will be decreased. Also, he is scheduled to bat in front of slow pull hitter Ty Wigginton, so he may have more steals than expected so he can stay out of the double play.
As for blogging, Hunter is already an expert at saying things that are chatty, yet say absolutely nothing except how excited he about this, that and the other.
Ducksnorts: Who has the best hair in baseball?
Gray: Matt Murton. I like red hair and his is the reddest.
Fair enough. We still have a soft spot for Geoff Blum’s hair (although we won’t miss watching him chase sliders down and in). Thanks again to Lisa for taking the time to chat with us. Here’s hoping for an entertaining series (with a favorable outcome, of course).
. . .
First pitch tonight is 7:05 p.m. PT. We’ll have the IGD up and running about an hour before then. Meanwhile, be sure to get your predictions in for 2008. Go Padres!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
March 31, 2008 at 7:56 am
It begins! I’ve been waiting for this day since about five minutes after Matt Holliday missed home plate.
Anyone heading down to the game tonite? I’ll be there in upper LF.
March 31, 2008 at 8:29 am
Opening Day! Finally!
Phantom, I’ll be there; we’re up in sec. 304, way up in the upper deck.
March 31, 2008 at 8:31 am
July Trade Deadline Prediction from mlb rumors.com editor ~
Padres acquire Jason Bay for Kevin Kouzmanoff and Wade LeBlanc. Bay returns to San Diego to provide some power and solve the left field issue. Chase Headley takes over at third for the Padres.
March 31, 2008 at 8:37 am
Woohoo Baseball is back!
Re: 3 Wow that is a STEEP price for Bay! I could see Louz or LeBlanc but not both!
March 31, 2008 at 8:39 am
3: I saw that, and Dierkes’ subsequent comment that “nobody outside of the Padres sees Kouz as a rising star.”
I know we’re horribly biased, but doesn’t the guy’s minor league numbers and his second-half numbers give us reason to hope he’s the real deal?
I really am suspect about Bay’s abilities at this point. His knee problems seem to have fully derailed a promising career.
March 31, 2008 at 9:00 am
Kouz is a rising star and if he played in NY/Chi/LA, he would be recognized as such…Would I be shocked if Kouz is traded? Nope, but I bet you his value on the trade market is a lot higher than MLBTR thinks.
March 31, 2008 at 9:01 am
#5 Bay made it through spring training healthy for the first time in years, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Recommendation: “It just feels so good to be healthy in spring for the first time since … I don’t know, maybe ever,” said Bay, who has battled knee injuries in recent years. After getting off to a slow start, Bay raised his spring batting average to .286 (16-for-56), though he had just three extra-base hits — all doubles — and six RBI.
March 31, 2008 at 9:19 am
Corey Brock has lineups posted … http://coreybrock.mlblogs.com/....._than.html
RF Brian Giles
2B Tadahito Iguchi
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
1B Adrian Gonzalez
CF Scott Hairston
SS Khalil Greene
C Josh Bard
LF Paul McAnulty
P Jake Peavy
… c’mon McAnulty!!!
March 31, 2008 at 9:26 am
Not “in depth”, but here’s an explanation of “Sandyball” …
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....dplan.html
March 31, 2008 at 9:28 am
Some nice lists …
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/s.....fives:-MLB
… especially “Best GM” and “Most Underrated Player” …
March 31, 2008 at 9:28 am
Happy Opening Day!
March 31, 2008 at 9:29 am
8: Big fan of that lineup, but I’d consider flipping Bard and Hairston. Of course, then you have two GIDP threats right after each other.
March 31, 2008 at 9:40 am
5: It doesn’t matter what anybody outside of SD thinks of Kouzmanoff. The Padres don’t trade undervalued players. They acquire them. If they’d been willing to make a trade with Headley, I suspect there were many opportunities this off-season, and probably for more attractive players than Bay.
They’ll continue to look for trades / pickups that offer upside with minimal cost and risk. Sometimes it works (Bradley), sometimes it doesn’t (Barrett). But if you wait until June or July to address a problem, you can’t get those games you’ve already played back.
March 31, 2008 at 10:21 am
12: The big surprise is that Adrian only grounded into 6 double plays all last year. I guess his fly ball tendencies help him avoid the double play. According to The Book, the fifth spot is the best spot to put your hitters that ground into double plays because the power of the fourth hitter and the likelihood of a four batter first inning makes the fifth spot the spot that comes up in the fewest double play possibilities.
All that to say, I agree Bard should be hitting fifth.
March 31, 2008 at 10:30 am
5,6,13 Under the pseudonym, “Mike Champion” — which is a hell of a lot better than ‘Friar Phil’ - I was the one who called Kouz a rising star, the projected trade crazy, and provoked the comments from Tim at mlb traderumors. His comments were off base though. His analysis is usually pretty good, though he tends to over-value the financial market for players like only a Cubs fan could.
March 31, 2008 at 10:40 am
The similarities between the Padres and the ’stros are interesting … right down to their commitment to “slot” … I’ve got a couple of friends who are from Houston and are big ’stro fans, so I’ve got a soft spot in my heart for them … plus I was a big Bagwell fan (he carried a few of my better roto teams during the 90s
… being “small market” and out of the media glare provides opportunities for roto players 
Questions I wish you’d have asked Lisa … what is the health status of the players in the Opening Day lineup (ie. any reason to suspect any of them are not 100%)? How did Roy Oswalts off-season and Spring Training go (ie. any reason to think he’ll do better or worse than the projections in 2008)? What’s the argument in favor of Bourn being a “star” (when PECOTA sees just .259 .337 .363 )? How bad does it feel to have Wandy Rodriquez as your #2 starter? Did Towles do anything this spring that impacts his prospect vs suspect expectations?
Any chance to get those questions asked/answered in time for an update before this opening series is over?
March 31, 2008 at 10:49 am
14: Great analysis and insight. Thanks for the information. It does indeed make total sense for Bard to bat fifth considering that he also had a phenomenal RISP last year. Of course, I assume that fluctuates year to year, but hopefully Adrian would be on second anytime he comes up.
Of course, then we face the daunting prospect of Adrian trying to score from second on a single…
March 31, 2008 at 10:59 am
Play Ball! Happy Happy Happy Opening Day!
16: Hey! Wandy is going to be a great #2. He’s on my fantasy team.
And P-Mac, too. That was a gamble I had to take in the end.
17: Good thing Piazza is no longer with the team.
BTW, Silent L, is he or isn’t he going to start? We just can’t get away from him.
March 31, 2008 at 11:14 am
BTW. the new Nationals Park looks great and it seems to play fair for one game.
Did anybody (Kevin?) go to the game? Or the free admission the night prior?
Odalis Perez? Really? Wow, i didn’t even know he was still in the league.
March 31, 2008 at 11:16 am
oh, I just read this. Hillarious.
http://tinyurl.com/32gnjx
March 31, 2008 at 11:34 am
19 … ya, I’m hoping Kevin was there and will provide us with a field-trip-report … Kevin?
March 31, 2008 at 12:18 pm
A good look at the status of beer at Petco (and baseball in general) …
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....9beer.html
I don’t have any problem at all with high beer prices (or high consession prices in general) … I just don’t buy any of them … the high prices are not new/surprising. I do have a problem with the UT thinking that “nobody was exactly applauding another increase” is news (au contraire, I’ll applaud the increase, if it helps revenues and therefore helps get better players and therefore wins, why not applaud it?) … but I do like the Padres being clear that “We’re not interested in attracting people who want six or eight beers” … though even I will admit that that is more spin than sincerity …
March 31, 2008 at 12:23 pm
And the D-backs have picked right up where they left off last year luckwise. They get one in the first on an error, passed ball, and ground ball single up the middle. They’re up 1-0 on the Reds after half an inning.
March 31, 2008 at 12:23 pm
19, 21: I was right there … at work … in the office. What a great job, huh?
I did put up a little story on Petco Park on the site today to act as a season preview. Check it out if you get a chance.
March 31, 2008 at 12:29 pm
10: It’s amazing people think Josh Beckett is better than Jake Peavy.
March 31, 2008 at 12:50 pm
I’d probably bat Greene 8th at home since he is by far the worst hitter in the lineup and maybe batting in front of the pitcher would help out his plate discipline. Plus Bard gets on base but isn’t that great of a power hitter, wouldn’t you want him in front of Greene (who’s the opposite kind of hitter at home)?
March 31, 2008 at 1:11 pm
24 … yes, nice job on the update/reminder on “park effects” at Petco … can you email that to Steve Phillips?
Well, if not actually at the new park, can you comment on the mood/feel of DC for the team/park/season? I’ve heard a lot of grumbling from national media guys (mostly radio) who’ve mentioned the (lack of) parking situation and the hassel of going to a ballgame with the President … but overall, it seems like Opening Day in DC is still the special event I remember from my youth in the 60s … get the bunting out and have the Pres throw out the first pitch … that’s as American as Apple Pie (which, if they served any, would run you another $10) …
March 31, 2008 at 1:14 pm
23 … but then the Dbacks tack on 2 more the old fashioned way … solo shots from Young and Byrnes …
March 31, 2008 at 1:16 pm
24: Bummer, Kevin. I was hoping you were at least there the night before.
I just checked this out. Looks cool.
http://tinyurl.com/24t87d
25: The perk of pitching for the BoSox.
March 31, 2008 at 1:18 pm
27 … hmmm … I just noticed that the Nats are not playing an “Opening Series” vs Braves … whassup with *THAT*!!!??? Having “Opening *Day*” at night bugs me … opening the season in other countries bugs me (but I understand/agree with this more than the other things) … and now having an opening 1-game “series”??? Yo, Bud … isn’t anything sacred?
March 31, 2008 at 1:24 pm
30: Money talks. I’m sure ESPN paid tons of moolahs to get that “opener”.
This is why Bud was extended once again. This on top of that ridiculous meaningful exhibition game.
Whatever happens to Cincinnati season day opening game? Sheesh.
March 31, 2008 at 1:27 pm
I don’t see the point in trading for Bay, especially if you give up Kouz. Why not just keep Headley? He’s going to be better than Bay over the next 5 years and much cheaper. He may not be better than him this year, or even next year, but over the long haul he will outperform Bay easily, imo, and at a much lower salary as well. Just doesn’t compute.
March 31, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Let’s go Kansas City. I just want to see the Royals be on top of the vaunted Tigers for at least one day.
March 31, 2008 at 1:38 pm
32: Agreed. If Jason Bay is going to be traded by the Pirates, it’s going to be a contender for the playoff that can afford to give up young prospects, provided that Bay has build enough value to be traded. I don’t see the Padres to be short sighted and making this trade.
March 31, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Dogs pounding Zito in bottom of 1st …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=280331119
… sigh …
March 31, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Pitching duel at Wrigley, Royals prevail, Dogs are ahead.
March 31, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Tony Jr got the only hit so far for the Brewcrew and a stolen base. Nice.
March 31, 2008 at 1:58 pm
32 … I’m hoping you missed a point … or else I’m missing your point … in the scenario proposed, the Padres would keep Headley … and trade KK for Bay … so the scenario is thinking that Headley @ 3B + Bay @ LF would be better than Kouz @ 3B + Headley (or 1 of plethora) @ LF … at this point, it doesn’t make sense to me but …
34 … if Bay “has built enough value to be traded”, I’m thinking & hoping that the Padres are one of the teams that would be both a contender for 2008 and can afford to give up young prospects! *If* Bay returns to form, he can be a very valuable player …
March 31, 2008 at 2:04 pm
38: I’m not hopeful that Bay will returns to form (I’m assuming the form prior to last season). When the Padres becomes a contender in 2008, they won’t have the need to trade for Bay. I don’t see giving up KK + an arm for Bay even if Bay returns to form.
March 31, 2008 at 2:06 pm
34: This is basically a rebuilding year, so I doubt we’ll be making any substantial “short term” moves.
March 31, 2008 at 2:10 pm
#16: Doubt I’ll have a chance to follow up with Lisa, but the impression I get with Bourn is that since fans in Houston seemed to think Willy Taveras was a star, they should have no trouble thinking the same about Bourn, who is a similar type player.
March 31, 2008 at 2:28 pm
38: Well, that is part of my point although I certainly left it unstated. Headley + Bay will not be better (or not enough better, especially when finances are taken into account) than Headley + Kouz. It doesn’t make any sense to give up either one of them for Bay because they’re both younger, cheaper and likely to be as good or better than Bay over the next several years. Does this help clarify?
March 31, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Love that beer article, man they make a killing on the captive audience. For 9 bucks, I’ll down a 6 pack of Newcastle in the parking lot and wobble my way to the my seat. Is it me, or is good entertainment becoming more and more elitist? IOWs, you have to be able to drop a c-note at minimum to watch a ball game. Guess channel 4 is cheaper, so is the beer in my fridge.
March 31, 2008 at 2:54 pm
43: You can choose to park in the $20.00 lot, sit in club seats and drink your dinner at the park. Others may choose to park on the street, walk in, sit in upper infield seats and bring in a sandwich. It is only elitist if you don’t have a choice.
March 31, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Re: 43 Section 301 is my Fav! can’t beat $18 for seats behind/over the plate!
March 31, 2008 at 3:00 pm
I don’t know whether to laugh at Bruce Bochy or feel sorry for him. Not only are the Giants starting at SS a guy that hit .220 in the California League (621 OPS against the league average of 770) but their Opening Day 3B is Jose Castillo, who was cut by the Pirates and the Marlins (Opening Day 3B for those teams — Jose Bautista and Jorge Cantu).
Shouldn’t Bochy just quit? Granted he’d pass on a bunch of money but he might not get another job after the Giants win 50 games this season — look at what happened to Alan Trammell.
March 31, 2008 at 3:28 pm
46: I vote for “laugh.” But I never liked Bochy, so I guess I’m biased.
March 31, 2008 at 4:27 pm
45: I personally like the upper deck, even with either 1st or 3rd base. They are only 12 buck or so and if you arent way up there you arent too far from the field. Its a great view i think too. You can see eveything that goes on.
March 31, 2008 at 5:00 pm
OT … under the heading of “former Padres in KC” … Tomko with a blown save … Soria with a save …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=280331106
March 31, 2008 at 5:22 pm
3: That’s a hell of a trade for Pittsburgh. I mean, Kouzmanoff is already a better hitter than Bay.
March 31, 2008 at 5:57 pm
24: Good write-up on Petco Park today. Yup, even us sometimes forget about that despite all the reminder from you and GY.
First pitch in just over an hour. I’m giddy with excitement. Hooray!